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At least 91 records · Page 5

Improving the effectiveness and equity of fuel economy regulations with sales adjustment factors

Larger vehicles, such as sports utility vehicles, consume more energy than cars. Their increasing popularity runs contrary to the goal of fuel economy regulations to reduce fossil fuel consumption and greenhouse gas emissions and can be explained by consumer preference and lower regulation stringency, which is due to footprint, truck classification, and the omission of heterogenous lifetime vehicle distance traveled among vehicle classes. This study shows that, for both the US and China, large vehicles travel more, last longer, and are owned by higher income consumers. This means large vehicles and their high-income owners use more fuel and emit more pollutants than represented by current policy and thus raises both policy effectiveness and energy equity concerns. We propose and estimate Sales Adjustment Factors that weigh fuel economy standards based on vehicle lifetime usage and demonstrate the resultant significant improvements in the effectiveness and equity of fuel economy regulations.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

Adjusting solar-induced fluorescence to nadir-viewing provides a better proxy for GPP

Solar-induced fluorescence (SIF) provides key information for inferring terrestrial gross primary productivity (GPP). However, there is little research on analyzing the performance of nadir-adjusted SIF (SIF nadir ) on GPP, compared to total SIF emitted by all leaves (SIF total ) for reducing the viewing angle effects and estimating GPP. Besides, there have been controversial opinions on whether SIF total is better correlated to GPP than raw SIF observations (SIF obs ). Here we systematically analyzed the relationship between raw/nadir/total SIF (i.e., SIF obs , SIF nadir and SIF total ) and GPP and investigated the underlying mechanism, using multi-angular field measurements and eddy covariance data in wheat and corn crops at sub-daily scale. We further compared the performance of SIF obs , SIF nadir and SIF total in estimating GPP using the TROPOspheric Monitoring Instrument (TROPOMI) SIF and concurrent AmeriFlux measurements at daily scale. Furthermore, the results indicate that diurnal SIF nadir has stronger correlations to GPP than SIF obs for field measurements, with the increase of mean coefficient of determination (R 2 ) by 0.05–0.07 for far-red band and 0.11–0.20 for red band. SIF nadir shows comparable performance with SIF total for both far-red and red bands. Although the viewing angle effects dominate the difference in estimating GPP between SIF nadir and SIF obs , the correlation between light use efficiency (LUE) and fesc further determines the different performance of SIF nadir and SIF total in estimating GPP. TROPOMI-based analysis further confirms that SIF nadir overall has higher correlations to AmeriFlux GPP than SIF obs for different plant functional types and shows similar performance with SIF total . Compared to SIF total , the estimation of SIF nadir independent of viewing angle effects does not require any canopy structure parameters, and thus offers promising potential for reliably estimating regional and global GPP.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Improving scalability of parallel CNN training by adaptively adjusting parameter update frequency

Synchronous SGD with data parallelism, the most popular parallelization strategy for CNN training, suffers from the expensive communication cost of averaging gradients among all workers. The iterative parameter updates of SGD cause frequent communications and it becomes the performance bottleneck. In this paper, we propose a lazy parameter update algorithm that adaptively adjusts the parameter update frequency to address the expensive communication cost issue. Our algorithm accumulates the gradients if the difference of the accumulated gradients and the latest gradients is sufficiently small. Here, the less frequent parameter updates reduce the per-iteration communication cost while maintaining the model accuracy. Our experimental results demonstrate that the lazy update method remarkably improves the scalability while maintaining the model accuracy. For ResNet50 training on ImageNet, the proposed algorithm achieves a significantly higher speedup (739.6 on 2048 Cori KNL nodes) as compared to the vanilla synchronous SGD (276.6) while the model accuracy is almost not affected (<0.2% difference).

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Incorporating the Effect of Large‐Scale Vertical Motion on Convection Through Convective Mass Flux Adjustment in E3SMv2

Abstract Recent observational studies suggest that the large‐scale dynamical forcing (vertical motion) plays important roles in deep convection development. In this study we propose a convective mass flux adjustment (MAdj) approach to represent the dynamical effects of large‐scale vertical motion on convection in the Department of Energy's Energy Exascale Earth System Model version 2 (E3SMv2). With MAdj, convection is enhanced (suppressed) when there is large‐scale ascending (descending) motion at the planetary boundary layer top. The coupling of convection with large‐scale circulation significantly improves the simulation of climate variability in E3SMv2 across multiple scales from the diurnal cycle, convectively coupled equatorial waves, to the Madden‐Julian Oscillation (MJO). The standard E3SMv2 tends to simulate overly weak diurnal amplitude of precipitation and overly weak variance of convectively coupled equatorial Kelvin and westward inertio‐gravity (WIG) waves. It also fails to simulate the essential characteristics of the MJO: continuous eastward propagation. With MAdj, the amplitude of diurnal cycle of precipitation is systematically increased and its probability density distribution is much closer to observations. The MAdj can also simulate more realistic eastward propagation of the MJO and much stronger convectively coupled Kelvin and WIG waves. Moreover, the MAdj approach slightly improves the climatology simulations in precipitation, cloud, radiation, circulation, temperature, and moisture fields, with overall root‐mean‐square error (RMSE) of major climatological fields reduced by about 2%. The MAdj approach suppresses excessive grid‐scale precipitation, reducing precipitation wet biases over South China Sea, Philippine Sea, Himalayas, and South Pacific Convergence Zone in western Pacific in summer.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Buffering of Aerosol-Cloud Adjustments by Coupling Between Radiative Susceptibility and Precipitation Efficiency

Aerosol-cloud interactions (ACI) in warm clouds are the primary source of uncertainty in effective radiative forcing (ERF) during the historical period and, by extension, inferred climate sensitivity. The ERF due to ACI (ERFaci) is composed of the radiative forcing due to changes in cloud microphysics and cloud adjustments to microphysics. Here, we examine the processes that drive ERFaci using a perturbed parameter ensemble (PPE) hosted in CAM6. Observational constraints on the PPE result in substantial constraints in the response of cloud microphysics and macrophysics to anthropogenic aerosol, but only minimal constraint on ERFaci. Examination of cloud and radiation processes in the PPE reveal buffering of ERFaci by the interaction of precipitation efficiency and radiative susceptibility.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Exploring Causal Relationships and Adjustment Timescales of Aerosol-Cloud Interactions in Geostationary Satellite Observations and CAM6 Using Wavelet Phase Coherence Analysis

We present for the first time within the cloud physics context, the application of wavelet phase coherence analysis to disentangle counteracting physical processes associated with the lead-lag phase difference between cloud-proxy liquid water path (LWP) and aerosol-proxy cloud droplet number concentration ( N d ) in an Eulerian framework using satellite-based observations and climate model outputs. This approach allows us to identify the causality and dominant adjustment timescales governing the correlation between LWP and N d . Satellite observations indicate a more prevalent positive correlation between daytime LWP and N d regardless of whether LWP leads or lags N d . The positive cloud water response, associated with precipitation processes, typically occurs within 1 hr, while the negative response resulting from entrainment drying, usually takes 2–4 hr. CAM6 displays excessively rapid negative responses along with overly strong negative cloud water response and insufficient positive response, leading to a more negative correlation between LWP and N d compared to observations.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Cooling performance of direct expansion system using multiple stages and adjustable heat exchange areas for fresh air handling

Providing fresh air to rooms can ensure indoor air quality. The direct expansion fresh air handling units are widely used, and most of them are single-stage treatment units, which are less energy-efficient under variable operating conditions. To overcome the shortcomings of existing systems, a direct expansion system using multiple stages and adjustable heat exchange areas for fresh air handling is proposed in this study. The fresh air is handled by coils stage by stage to achieve high efficiency, and the dampers of the idle coils are opened when some of the coils are working, which results in the performance improvement under partial load conditions. The simulation model is established, and operating conditions at load ratio of 95.70%, 45.38%, 31.76% and 0 are selected as typical operating conditions. The proposed system performances under different conditions are compared with traditional system. The results show that: (1) For four conditions, as the load rate decreases, the proposed system can save energy by 6.2%, 26.1%, 46.5%, and 25.0% compared to the traditional system respectively; (2) The proposed system can bypass the filter when the outdoor air is good, which can further save energy by 1.3%, 1.8%, 3.4%, and 25.9% under four conditions, respectively.

Zha, Fuhai↗

Hubbard-corrected oxide formation enthalpies without adjustable parameters

A density functional theory (DFT) approach to computing transition metal oxide heat of formation without adjustable parameters is presented. Different degrees of d-electron localization in oxides are treated within the DFT+U approach with site-dependent, first-principles Hubbard U-parameters obtained from linear response theory, and delocalized states in the metallic phases are treated without Hubbard corrections. Comparison of relative stabilities of these differently treated phases is enabled by a local d-electron density matrix-dependent model, which was found by genetic programming against experimental reference formation enthalpies. This mathematically simple model does not explicitly depend on the Hubbard-corrected ionic species and is shown to reproduce the heats of formation of the Mott insulators Ca 2 RuO 4 and Y 2 Ru 2 O 7 within ~3% of experimental results, where the experimental training data did not contain Ru oxides. This newly developed method thus absolves from the need for element-specific corrections fitted to experiments in existing Hubbard-corrected approaches to the prediction of reaction energies of transition metal oxides and metals. The absence of fitting parameters opens up here the possibility to predict relative thermodynamic stabilities and reaction energies involving d-states of varying degree of localization at transition metal oxide interfaces and defects, where site-dependent U-parameters will be particularly important and devising a fitting scheme against experimental data with predictive power would be exceedingly difficult.

transition metal oxides↗

Assessing the performance of global thermostat adjustment in commercial buildings for load shifting demand response

Abstract Efficiently leveraging new sources of flexibility is critical to mitigating load balancing challenges posed by variable renewable resources. The thermal inertia of commercial buildings allows us to shift their power consumption on minute to hourly timescales to provide demand response to the grid while maintaining occupant comfort. Global thermostat adjustment (GTA) provides a readily available and scalable approach for implementing load shifting demand response using commercial heating, ventilation, and air conditioning (HVAC) systems, since it leverages the inherent sophistication of modern building automation systems. However, there is an incomplete understanding of GTA’s performance for this purpose and its impact on building systems and occupant comfort. In this paper, we explore the performance of GTA by analyzing results from nearly nine hundred experiments on eight university campus buildings in Michigan and North Carolina. Using GTA, we manipulate each building’s thermostat setpoints causing the building to shift its power consumption with respect to its baseline. We quantify the magnitude of HVAC power response, energy use of HVAC subsystems, and impact on occupant comfort. Finally, we connect our experimental results with power system operation using an optimization model that coordinates GTA actions across a large collection of grid-interactive efficient buildings (GEBs) to reduce high ramp rates on the grid and mitigate renewable energy curtailment. Overall, our work finds that the impacts on HVAC subsystems are often complex, and may result in additional energy being consumed by fans and terminal reheat. These effects must be considered when using GTA for load shifting. Additionally, we demonstrate that occupant comfort, as assessed by indoor temperature and humidity, can be maintained during GTA events. From a societal perspective, our modeling work finds that the additional renewable energy that can be integrated through the use of GTA strategies eclipses any additional energy consumed by buildings.

Keskar, Aditya (ORCID:0000000244617980)↗

Designing an Intrusion Proof Adjustable Speed Drive System Controlling a Critical Process

In this paper, an intrusion proof adjustable speed drive system controlling a critical process in an industrial control system is detailed. In such a system, should the motor speed sensor signal data be compromised and/or altered via a cyber-attack, the system can potentially be unregulated, over speed and/or malfunction thereby disrupting the critical process. The proposed active detection scheme detailed in this paper introduces a private (secret) random signal termed as "watermark" into the inverter control signal that determines the PWM gating signals of the DC-AC inverter powering the motor. The watermarking signal introduced into the PWM modulation for the DC-AC inverter is shown to propagates its unique signature, which appears in all sensors signals at the inverter output such as voltage/current/speed used to control the motor. Now employing the measured data (from sensors), two statistical variance tests are conducted to identify anomalies if any in the presence of the watermarking signal. It is shown when an intrusion occurs to manipulate the sensor data to disturb and/or destabilize the process, the proposed tests immediately display a high value indicating a compromise in sensor data. It is shown that the proposed system is capable of immediate detection of a sophisticated attacks such as record/reply attack in which the actual speed sensor is disconnected and a prerecorded speed signal from the past of the same magnitude is played back to the controller. Several types of cyber-attacks such as speed reduction/increase including vibration have been tested. Extensive simulation results verify the proposed concepts. Experimental results will be discussed in the conference presentation.

Alotaibi, Faris↗

Cost Estimation of a Permanent Magnet Synchronous Machine for Use in Adjustable Speed-Pumped Storage Hydropower

Electric machine design has become an easier process with the availability of computers in recent decades. However, the interest in electric machine design among students has declined. University-level design courses must compete with courses perceived as more desirable by the potential job market. Hence, the power system engineers with this expertise are very few and are nearing retirement. Contrarily, renewable energy has been picking up in the past few decades. The indeterminacy and variation of renewable energy sources require a balancing mechanism to maintain the constant voltage and frequency of the grid. Adjustable-Speed Pumped-Storage Hydropower plants are considered the contender for future energy storage, providing large capacity and fast-acting response. Large-scale hydropower applications depend on the natural characteristics of each project site, making less expensive, off-the-shelf generators unfeasible. This work gives a shortcut to estimate the cost of constructing a permanent magnet generator for low-volume manufacturing.

13 HYDRO ENERGY↗

Three-Stage Adjusted Regression Forecasting for Software Defect Prediction

In this paper, a three-stage adjusted regression forecasting model is proposed to forecast the local regression model [6]. This is a growth curve approximation model that predicts the parameters for a future linear model based on a sliding window of previous linear models. The three stages of the model are as follows: • Initial fit: train regression models on a sliding window of the date and record model coefficients. • Prediction: fit new regression models to the coefficient lists and predict the value of the next coefficient. • Error correction: correct coefficient prediction error using the residual of the last point of the coefficient list and moving average. The resulting model from the multi-stage process is a forecast of the local regression model that represents the future window of data and is referred to as the predicted line. Results suggest the three-stage model demonstrates better prediction capability compared to existing solutions.

Pritchard, Shadow↗

Adjusting neutrino interaction models and evaluating uncertainties using NOvA near detector data

The two-detector design of the NOvA neutrino oscillation experiment, in which two functionally identical detectors are exposed to an intense neutrino beam, aids in canceling leading order effects of cross-section uncertainties. However, limited knowledge of neutrino interaction cross sections still gives rise to some of the largest systematic uncertainties in current oscillation measurements. We show contemporary models of neutrino interactions to be discrepant with data from NOvA, consistent with discrepancies seen in other experiments. Adjustments to neutrino interaction models in GENIE are presented, creating an effective model that improves agreement with our data. We also describe systematic uncertainties on these models, including uncertainties on multi-nucleon interactions from a newly developed procedure using NOvA near detector data.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗

Machine Learning–Adjusted WRF Forecasts to Support Wind Energy Needs in Black Start Operations

Abstract The push for increased capacity of renewable sources of electricity has led to the growth of wind-power generation, with a need for accurate forecasts of winds at hub height. Forecasts for these levels were uncommon until recently, and that, combined with the nocturnal collapse of the well-mixed boundary layer and daytime growth of the boundary layer through the levels important for energy generation, has contributed to errors in numerical modeling of wind generation resources. The present study explores several machine learning algorithms to both forecast and correct standard WRF Model forecasts of winds and temperature at hub height within wind turbine plants over several different time periods that are critical for the anticipation of potential blackouts and aiding in black start operations on the power grid. It was found that mean square error for day-2 wind forecasts from the WRF Model can be improved by over 90% with the use of a multioutput neural network, and that 60-min forecasts of WRF error, which can then be used to adjust forecasts, can be made with an LSTM with great accuracy. Nowcasting of temperature and wind speed over a 10-min period using an LSTM produced very low error and especially skillful forecasts of maximum and minimum values over the turbine plant area.

17 WIND ENERGY↗

Options for the Removal of Cesium and Strontium from Acidic Uranyl Sulfate Solutions from Molybdenum-99 Production: Part II The Effect of Sodium Carbonate Adjustment to pH 9 on Strontium Removal

A small laboratory-scale column process aimed at removing fission products from prototypical acidic sulfate solution wastes from a prototypical Mo-99 recovery process has been operated in a radioactive materials hood at Savannah River National Laboratory. This equipment has been operated with realistic concentrations of uranium (0.4 wt % 235 U), plutonium ( 239 Pu), neptunium ( 237 Np), non-radioactive surrogates of common fission products (including Cs and Sr) and two promising absorbents – AMP-PAN and CST R9120-B. The goal of this work was to demonstrate the removal and concentration of high specific activity isotopes which are expected to dominate the classification of the low-level waste from the production of 99 Mo. Both AMP-PAN and CST R9120-B are attractive absorbents for the removal of 137 Cs from an acidic sulfate waste stream. They do not provide a solution for the removal of 90 Sr from the acidic solutions. CST was shown to be useful at removing both Cs and Sr after adjustment of the acidic sulfate solution with sodium carbonate to pH 9. Limited removal of transuranic species and almost no removal of uranium was observed for CST R9120B absorbent. This could be important due to the relatively large amount of uranium expected to be present in such waste streams. The capacity of these absorbents for 137 Cs will likely be dependent on the Cs concentration in the solutions processed but loading in excess of 0.7 mg Cs per gram of CST absorbent while loading 0.14 mg Sr per gram of CST absorbent appears to be achievable from pH 9 carbonate solution.

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗

Deployment of Gaussian Surrogate Model for Ad-Hoc Adjustments to Elastic Scattering Angular Distributions [Slides]

This presentation is on the deployment of gaussian surrogate model for ad-hoc adjustments to elastic scattering angular distributions. Discussed throughout the presentation is motivation for this lecture. Specifically, the gaussian surrogate models, validation of method with Pb-208, and the application on Be-9 are highlighted. The presentation concludes with a summary.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Cloud adjustments from large-scale smoke–circulation interactions strongly modulate the southeastern Atlantic stratocumulus-to-cumulus transition

Smoke from southern Africa blankets the southeastern Atlantic Ocean from June to October, producing strong and competing aerosol radiative effects. Smoke effects on the transition between overcast stratocumulus and scattered cumulus clouds are investigated along a Lagrangian (air-mass-following) trajectory in regional climate and large eddy simulation models. Results are compared with observations from three recent field campaigns that took place in August 2017: ObseRvations of Aerosols above CLouds and their intEractionS (ORACLES), CLouds and Aerosol Radiative Impacts and Forcing: Year 2017 (CLARIFY), and Layered Atlantic Smoke Interactions with Clouds (LASIC). The case study is set up around the joint ORACLES–CLARIFY flight that took place near Ascension Island on 18 August 2017. Smoke sampled upstream on an ORACLES flight on 15 August 2017 likely entrained into the marine boundary layer later sampled during the joint flight. The case is first simulated with the WRF-CAM5 regional climate model in three distinct setups: (1) FireOn, in which smoke emissions and any resulting smoke–cloud–radiation interactions are included; (2) FireOff, in which no smoke emissions are included; (3) RadOff, in which smoke emissions and their microphysical effects are included but aerosol does not interact directly with radiation. Over the course of the Lagrangian trajectory, differences in free tropospheric thermodynamic properties between FireOn and FireOff are nearly identical to those between FireOn and RadOff, showing that aerosol–radiation interactions are primarily responsible for the free tropospheric effects. These effects are non-intuitive: in addition to the expected heating within the core of the smoke plume, there is also a “banding” effect of cooler temperature (~1–2 K) and greatly enhanced moisture (>2 g kg -1 ) at the plume top. This banding effect is caused by a vertical displacement of the former continental boundary layer in the free troposphere in the FireOn simulation resulting from anomalous diabatic heating due to smoke absorption of sunlight that manifests primarily as a few hundred meters per day reduction in large-scale subsidence over the ocean. A large eddy simulation (LES) is then forced with free tropospheric fields taken from the outputs for the WRF-CAM5 FireOn and FireOff runs. Cases are run by selectively perturbing one variable (e.g., aerosol number concentration, temperature, moisture, vertical velocity) at a time to better understand the contributions from different indirect (microphysical), “large-scale” semi-direct (above-cloud thermodynamic and subsidence changes), and “local” semi-direct (below-cloud smoke absorption) effects. Despite a more than 5-fold increase in cloud droplet number concentration when including smoke aerosol concentrations, minimal differences in cloud fraction evolution are simulated by the LES when comparing the base case with a perturbed aerosol case with identical thermodynamic and dynamic forcings. A factor of 2 decrease in background free tropospheric aerosol concentrations from the FireOff simulation shifts the cloud evolution from a classical entrainment-driven “deepening–warming” transition to trade cumulus to a precipitation-driven “drizzle-depletion” transition to open cells, however. The thermodynamic and dynamic changes caused by the WRF-simulated large-scale adjustments to smoke diabatic heating strongly influence cloud evolution in terms of both the rate of deepening (especially for changes in the inversion temperature jump and in subsidence) and in cloud fraction on the final day of the simulation (especially for the moisture “banding” effect). Such large-scale semi-direct effects would not have been possible to simulate using a small-domain LES model alone.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗