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At least 91 records · Page 5

Conceptual Design of a Water Tank Critical Facility for SPARC

Critical experiments, sometimes referred to zero-power reactors, are crucial tools in developing and validating nuclear physics predictions and thus an indispensable capability to ensure criticality safety during all parts of the nuclear fuel cycle and in reducing uncertainties in reactor physics predictions toward optimizing nuclear energy production. The System Physics Advanced Reactor Facility (SPARC) project was recently initiated to enable large-scale criticality experiments using a horizontal split table machine well suited toward solid core materials systems (fuel, moderator, reflector). The facility selected for this mission was a former pool-type research reactor building and thus also well suited toward a second critical experiment capability able to house full-size light-water reactor (LWR) fuel bundles. A conceptual design study was undertaken to review past water tank critical experiments used for LWR physics experiments and to develop an early engineering design for a new critical assembly tank (CAT). The work described here shows that a relatively simple CAT concept can be constructed and deployed in the SPARC facility to meet the urgent demands for new critical experiments on advanced LWR fuel bundles designs. The SPARC facility layout is conducive to the receipt and upending of LWR fuel bundles using existing containers and equipment from the LWR industry. The facility’s overhead crane can then be used to handle fuel bundles and place them in a vertical storage rack or in the CAT for critical experiments, both of which fit within the building’s “open basement” alongside other equipment planned for SPARC and the horizontal split table. A slightly lower area in the basement can serve as a large drain tank so that fail-safe valves drain the CAT reactor tank for safe shutdown. Neutronic configurations were determined where a 3 × 3 array of fuel bundles can be surrounded by full-length “loose rods” to adjust reactivity so that critical is achieved when the bundles are fully submerged. Viable configurations were determined for both pressurized- and boiling-water-reactor-type fuel bundles. This design concept was used to develop an early planning basis for establishing the CAT capability alongside the otherwise planned SPARC project in order to help streamline the process. Recent presidential executive orders have highlighted the need to achieve power uprates in LWR plants and the CAT capability will be a crucial element of these initiatives. Based on the work described herein, it is recommended that an earnest and timely project begin in order to establish this urgently needed capability.

11 - NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗

Future grid mix impacts on whole-building life cycle assessment

Building construction and operation are a significant contribution to global greenhouse gas emissions, so understanding and mitigating emissions is crucial for reliable and realistic emissions accounting. Whole-building Life Cycle Assessment (WBLCA) is an emissions accounting method that considers lifetime environmental impacts of a building during its construction, operation, and eventual end-of-life. When performing WBLCAs, emission calculations from the building's operation over the entire building lifespan are typically based on today's energy grid mixes. This method does not consider changes or advancements in the clean energy proportion within the grid mix and can over or under-inflate results, skewing the ratio of embodied vs. operational environmental impacts. While a variety of prediction tools estimate what future grid emissions might be, predictions can vary widely. To predict the clean energy ratio within future grid mixes and the potential impact these changes might have on WBLCA, annual data from several existing U.S. grid models was averaged and probabilistic modeling was used to extend the usable projections of shorter forecasts. Results show that clean energy sources will likely continue to increase over time, although the rate of growth varies by model. On average, by 2085, the clean energy penetration of the grid is projected to reach ~81% and renewable energy is projected to reach ~71%, although no widespread consensus is reached. To understand how the future grid mix impacts lifetime building emissions within a WBLCA context, the team analyzed two 2021 IECC-compliant all-electric residential buildings: one built from traditional materials and construction processes and the other built with carbon sequestering materials and modular assembly, with a portion of energy generated on site. The results indicate that a moderate estimate of future electricity grid mixes shows a reduction of yearly operational emissions for traditional residential buildings of 55% between 2025 and 2085, and a corresponding reduction of 48% of total emissions over a 60 year building lifespan. This study offers a nuanced approach to account for the variability of future grid mix models and provides an average trend-line based on a robust collection of scenarios.

Life Cycle Assessment (LCA)↗

Advanced Fuel Cycle Cost Basis Report: Supporting Document 5 Considerations on Learning

Learning refers here to the increased experience associated to each new build of a given type of fuel cycle facility, which results generally in design improvements, increased construction and operational efficiencies and reduced mistakes, and therefore in reduced costs. These are important considerations, for example, when modeling transitions from first-of-a-kind (FOAK) to nth-of-a-kind (NOAK) nuclear facilities and deciding the magnitude of the cost reduction (if any) to be applied to each successive build. Different assumptions on learning can significantly affect the results of the economic analyses during transitions. Other competing electricity-generation technologies, such as wind and solar power for example, have demonstrated substantial cost reductions through learning during the last few decades.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗

Engineering microbial consortia with rationally designed cellular interactions

Synthetic microbial consortia represent a frontier of synthetic biology that promises versatile engineering of cellular functions. They are primarily developed through the design and construction of cellular interactions that coordinate individual dynamics and generate collective behaviors. Here we review recent advances in the engineering of synthetic communities through cellular-interaction programming. We first examine fundamental building blocks for intercellular communication and unidirectional positive and negative interactions. Here, we then recap the assembly of the building blocks for creating bidirectional interactions in two-species ecosystems, which is followed by the discussion of engineering toward complex communities with increasing species numbers, under spatial contexts, and via model-guided design. We conclude by summarizing major challenges and future opportunities of engineered microbial ecosystems.

42 ENGINEERING↗

SSR COST – COmposite Structural Technologies for advanced reactor deployment (Final Scientific/Technical Report)

Moltex is designing a Generation 4 or Advanced nuclear reactor, the molten salt fast spectrum SSR-W. The design intent is to reduce the cost and complexity of the nuclear systems by relying on inherent safety characteristics, instead of engineered systems. One such characteristic as a natural tendency for power to decrease as temperature increases. Another characteristic that improves natural safety is the fact that the working fluids (molten salts) are at atmospheric pressure at operating temperatures. This significantly reduces the need for pressure boundary components and systems. Moltex is highly motivated to develop simple and economic reactors to reduce the carbon intensity and improve energy security of global electricity production. The COST project investigated the opportunities for reducing construction cost of advanced reactors with the adoption of Rigid Elastic Composite Civil works (RECC). The construction design and methods used in currently operational light water power plants would generally be suboptimal for the SSR-W since there is no requirement for civil structures to withstand high pressure accidents such as hydrogen combustion or steam explosion. In parallel to downselecting the most promising RECC-type technology, accident scenarios representing the largest credible challenge to the SSR-W civil and construction design were modelled. The capability of an SSR-W reactor constructed with and without the selected construction technology was evaluated and the consequential licensing challenges identified. A construction schedule and cost estimate of the SSR-W with and without the selected RECC construction technology was developed. Once the above data was collected, then Moltex was able to review the safety performance, license-ability and cost/schedule benefit of applying the preferred construction technology. The CAPEX/NPV benefit was quantified, and the licensing risks and opportunities were documented. Finally, the CAPEX/NPV benefit of the advanced construction technology was modest due to the suitability of traditional stick-built construction for the SSR-W design. However, previously unidentified benefits of the advanced construction technology were revealed during the studies that could credibly de-risk certain aspects of the design to be licensed. Since licensing (duration and delays) are very significant in new build project costs, the cost benefits may be significant. Further studies on the risk reduction of the construction technology are foreseen.

21 SPECIFIC NUCLEAR REACTORS AND ASSOCIATED PLANTS↗

Hierarchical Nanomaterials Assembled from Peptoids and Other Sequence-Defined Synthetic Polymers

In nature, the self-assembly of sequence-specific biopolymers into hierarchical structures plays an essential role in the construction of functional biomaterials. To develop synthetic materials that can mimic and surpass the function of these natural counterparts, various sequence-defined bio- and biomimetic polymers have been developed and exploited as building blocks for hierarchical self-assembly. This review summarizes the recent advances in the molecular self-assembly of hierarchical nanomaterials based on peptoids (or poly-N-substituted glycines) and other sequence-defined synthetic polymers. Modern techniques to monitor the assembly mechanisms and characterize the physicochemical properties of these self-assembly systems are highlighted. In addition, discussions about their potential applications in biomedical sciences and renewable energy are also included. Furthermore, this review aims to highlight essential features of sequence-defined synthetic polymers (e.g., high stability and protein-like high-information content) and how these unique features enable the construction of robust biomimetic functional materials with high programmability and predictability, with an emphasis on peptoids and their self-assembled nanomaterials.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

Empirical validation of building energy simulation model input parameter for multizone commercial building during the cooling season

This paper presents a critical advancement in Building Energy Modeling (BEM) through an empirical validation approach using a high-quality dataset from a multizone commercial office building in Oak Ridge, TN, USA. BEM is widely utilized in diverse construction applications, but its effectiveness relies on the accuracy of its predictions. The study focuses on empirical validation of input parameters in BEM, including building envelope data, infiltration modeling, and rooftop unit system performance curves. The validation of simulation input parameters leads to substantial improvements in the accuracy of simulation results. Notable both NMBE and cv (RMSE) values are reduced by 0.5 % for indoor air temperature and 17 % for indoor air relative humidity compared to the previous model. At the system level, both NMBE and cv (RMSE) values are reduced by 2 % for fan energy consumption and 4 % for cooling energy consumption, compared to the previous model. A literature review highlights a significant gap in empirical validation studies, which predominantly concentrate on either component-level or whole building validation. Furthermore, many studies employ simplified setups that may not faithfully represent the complexities of multizone commercial buildings. This paper distinguishes itself by emphasizing the critical importance of component-level input parameter validation. It underlines the need to validate data related to building envelope components and HVAC system performance curves, resulting in more accurate simulation outcomes. In conclusion, the utilization of actual multizone commercial building data enhances the study's practical relevance. In summary, this research underscores the pivotal role of input parameter validation in enhancing the accuracy and reliability of BEM.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

Intentional and Responsible Energy Transitions: Integrating Design Choices in the Pursuit of Carbon-Neutral Futures

The transitions of energy systems to carbon neutrality are among is one of the most ambitious, complex, uncertain, significant, and transformative projects in human history. They will therefore demand extraordinarily thoughtful, informed, and careful leadership. In recent years, this project has reached an important turning point, with widespread agreement to decarbonize energy systems by 2050. We argue that the next step is to engage leaders in doing the work necessary to achieve that goal. Specifically, we argue that regional leaders, across sectors, should build collaborative initiatives to intentionally and responsibly design and advance regional energy transitions. These transitions will entail navigating uncertain and unknown terrain, requiring diverse organizations and communities to work together to chart and construct potential pathways, assess their implications, and collectively work to make progress. To address these challenges, we recommend adopting region-first, anticipatory, justice-oriented approaches. In such approachesthis process, regions can collaboratively identify, deliberate, design, and navigate toward endpoints along complex and shifting pathways that recognize that design will matter. Efuture energy systems will deeply shape and be shaped by the futures of both societies and economies. Transitions will therefore need to be inclusive, to provide broad public input into both how to proceed with transitions and the goals that guide their design.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

Decarbonizing residential buildings in the United States: A comparative analysis of households and construction professionals

In this study, we present a comparative analysis of surveys distributed to home occupants and construction professionals in the U.S., focused on energy upgrades and electrification retrofits that support residential building decarbonization. The surveys were executed by separate research groups and combined for this study. The study examines the decision-making, sentiments, perceptions, experiences, and practices of both groups by analyzing data from three separate surveys. These surveys assess technologies, attitudes, awareness, motivations, barriers, and opportunities related to energy retrofits and electrification. The analysis highlights key differences in the perceptions and behaviors of households and construction professionals, revealing substantial barriers to achieving decarbonization goals. For example, households cite climate change and sustainability as key motivators for pursuing energy retrofits (89%), while construction industry professionals view these themes as less important for their clients (44%). This suggests an opportunity for the construction industry to align its messaging with the values that households prioritize, helping to advance residential decarbonization. Overall, the study identifies challenges faced by both groups, factors influencing the adoption of energy-efficient practices, and inconsistencies between occupant and construction industry professionals' views. These insights contribute to the development of targeted strategies and policies to accelerate the decarbonization of residential buildings in the U.S.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

Fault-Tolerant Operation of Bosonic Qubits with Discrete-Variable Ancillae

Fault-tolerant quantum computation with bosonic qubits often necessitates the use of noisy discrete-variable ancillae. In this work, we establish a comprehensive and practical fault-tolerance framework for such a hybrid system and synthesize it with fault-tolerant protocols by combining bosonic quantum error correction (QEC) and advanced quantum control techniques. We introduce essential building blocks of error-corrected gadgets by leveraging ancilla-assisted bosonic operations using a generalized variant of path-independent quantum control. Using these building blocks, we construct a universal set of error-corrected gadgets that tolerate a single-photon loss and an arbitrary ancilla fault for four-legged cat qubits. Notably, our construction requires only dispersive coupling between bosonic modes and ancillae, as well as beam-splitter coupling between bosonic modes, both of which have been experimentally demonstrated with strong strengths and high accuracy. Moreover, each error-corrected bosonic qubit is comprised of only a single bosonic mode and a three-level ancilla, featuring the hardware efficiency of bosonic QEC in the full fault-tolerant setting. We numerically demonstrate the feasibility of our schemes using current experimental parameters in the circuit-QED platform. Finally, we present a hardware-efficient architecture for fault-tolerant quantum computing by concatenating the four-legged cat qubits with an outer qubit code utilizing only beam-splitter couplings. Our estimates suggest that the overall noise threshold can be reached using existing hardware. These developed fault-tolerant schemes extend beyond their applicability to four-legged cat qubits and can be adapted for other rotation-symmetrical codes, offering a promising avenue toward scalable and robust quantum computation with bosonic qubits. Published by the American Physical Society 2024

Physics↗

MICROREACTOR APPLICATIONS, RESEARCH, VALIDATION, AND EVALUATION (MARVEL) REACTOR ? STATUS, CONSTRUCTION, AND TESTING

The paper presents the current status of the Microreactor Applications, Research, Validation, and Evaluation (MARVEL) microreactor design, qualification testing, fabrication, and high-level construction schedule. An overview of initial criticality, low power physics testing, and start-up testing is included, as well as an overview of the envisioned processes in which end-users can engage the project for access to operational data or specific demonstrations. Designed by the Idaho National Laboratory (INL) under the auspices of the US Department of Energy’s Microreactor Program for construction and operation at the INL, MARVEL is a small, fully functional advanced reactor with UZrH fuel and thermal output of 85 kW. It offers a unique opportunity for scaled demonstrations that can dramatically accelerate the design, licensing, and deployment of commercial microreactors for power production or process heat applications. MARVEL’s objective is to build a small liquid-metal thermal reactor at the INL to demonstrate design and operating processes for microreactors, microgrid integration, and process heat applications. MARVEL finished 90%-final-design in September 2023 and completed an independent project assessment in early 2024. Fabrication of long-lead components and fuel, safety analysis review, and procurement for construction are underway. MARVEL assembly and construction will start in 2025 and fuel loading is expected in mid- 2027. Initial criticality will be performed in a dry condition in late 2027, followed by loading of NaK coolant and start-up testing. Approximately six months later, release for unrestricted operations will enable subsequent testing of microreactor characteristics, microgrid integration and select heat extraction applications.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗

Historic Context, Character-Defining Elements, And Photographic Record For A 26.45-Mile Segment Of The 138-Kilovolt Power Transmission System, Areas 3, 5, 6, And 23, Nevada National Security Site, Nye County, Nevada

The subject of this report is the 138-kilovolt (kV) power transmission line on the Nevada National Security Site (NNSS) (see Figure 1). The NNSS, formerly the Nevada Test Site (NTS), was the main continental nuclear test site for the United States between 1951 and 1992. Known as the battleground of the Cold War, the NNSS hosted a total of 928 nuclear tests during that period. It also served as the location of numerous scientific advancements in the fields of rocketry, big-hole drilling, nuclear waste management, and defense. From its construction in the 1960s through the present day, the 138 kV line has provided electrical power to the numerous buildings, facilities, experiments, and tests on the NNSS. The Department of Energy (DOE), in consultation with the Nevada State Historic Preservation Officer (SHPO), has determined that it may contribute to the character and significance of the Mercury Historic District (MHD) on the NNSS, as well as other historic districts that have not been recorded or evaluated yet. The purpose of this report is to fulfill two of the stipulations in the Memorandum of Agreement DEGM58-22NA25553 between the U.S. Department of Energy and the Nevada State Historic Preservation Officer Regarding Installation of a 138-kilovolt Transmission Line from the Mercury Switching Station to the U1a Facility and the Removal of the Historic 138-kilovolt Transmission Line from the Mercury Switching Station to the U1a Facility in Areas 1, 3, 5, 6, and 23 of the Nevada National Security Site (MOA). The MOA was executed as part of the DOE’s obligations under Section 106 of the National Historic Preservation Act (NHPA) to mitigate the adverse effects of two undertakings on historic properties. In particular, this report fulfills MOA Stipulations III.C.1-3, which state that the Department of Energy (DOE) will prepare the following: A historic context for the 138 kV transmission line and identification of the line’s characterdefining elements; High-quality digital images of the 26.45-mile segment of the 138 kV transmission line that is subject to the two undertakings for which the MOA was executed; and Photograph catalogs and map keys showing photograph viewpoints and directions.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Economic solution for low carbon process heat: A horizontal, compact high temperature gas reactor

In 2018, nuclear energy generated 55% of United States’ and one third of the world’s carbon free electricity, making nuclear energy a key tool in efforts to mitigate climate change before 2050. However, the current nuclear technology, light water reactors (LWRs), is limited to 300°C, so it cannot be used to decarbonize industrial process heat which accounts for 12% of US greenhouse gas emissions. High temperature gas reactors (HTGRs) can meet the high temperature demand with carbon free nuclear heat. The estimated cost of HTGRs, such as the Next Generation Nuclear Plant (NGNP), are even higher than state-of-the-art LWRs. In this paper, we expanded our nuclear cost estimating tool to include HTGRs and find that the NGNP overnight capital costs were 32% higher than an advanced LWR per unit capacity. The higher cost will naturally result in larger risk to cost overrun as recently experienced by larger LWRs in western nations. With a design-to-build mindset to minimize cost and construction risk, we introduce the horizontal, compact HTGR (HC-HTGR). The reactor core and steam generator are mounted horizontally on rails and in-line with one another, decreasing the size of the reactor building relative to the power capacity four times when compared to traditional HTGRs. The HC-HTGR reduced overnight civil structure costs by 42%, indirect costs by 38%, and total capital costs by 20% from NGNP. We discussed the required engineering of new systems for the HC-HTGR including vessel supports, the reactor cavity cooling system, and steam generator design. Finally, we estimated the fuel and operations costs of the HC-HTGR, and a survey of low-carbon industrial process heat technology showed the HC-HTGR can deliver a highly competitive levelized cost of heat in the range of $6.13–12.48/GJ.

21 SPECIFIC NUCLEAR REACTORS AND ASSOCIATED PLANTS↗

Moving Zero Energy Office Buildings to the Mainstream: Establishing Design Guidelines and Energy Targets: Preprint

Office buildings represent a significant portion of the commercial sector and are ideal candidates to lead the market towards achieving zero energy or zero energy ready buildings. The variety of sizes and uses for office buildings make them challenging to determine set design guidance that can be deployed across the market. A project committee for ASHRAE’s Zero Energy - Advanced Energy Design Guide (ZE-AEDG) for small and medium office buildings , comprised of members from five major national associations with market-pull in commercial buildings, created design guidance for achieving zero energy office buildings for new construction and major retrofit. This design guidance focuses on the process, providing a pathway for both office owners and design teams to achieve zero energy status. Energy use intensity targets range from 16 kBtu/ft²·yr to 36 kBtu/ft²·yr for the different climate zones were established such that office buildings can be “zero-ready,” that is, having low energy consumption that can easily be offset with renewables, preferably on-site. The design guidance was rooted in extensive energy modeling, as well as case studies of actual office buildings that have achieved high levels of energy performance and met zero energy or zero energy ready status. A unique aspect of the zero-energy guide is that it is not compared against a baseline but focuses on achieving an absolute target. The paper presents process of creating the targets, the selection of strategies to achieve the targets, and sample case studies that show how the cost-sensitive solutions are achievable for the design community. It also presents outreach strategies to deploy market achievable zero energy measures.

buildings↗

In Cell Thermal Creep Frames for Demonstration Project Preparations

The thrust of advanced nuclear reactor demonstrations demands the accelerated qualification of in-core materials to enable licensing processes and developing the performance data. Due to the high-operating temperatures of such reactors, long-term mechanical behavior under constant load is essential to determine the geometrical and mechanical integrity of in-core components during operation and off-normal conditions. Therefore, the thermal creep behavior of neutron-irradiated advanced reactor materials must be determined. The feasibility of using subsize specimens for the irradiation campaigns and the limited available infrastructure challenge the assessment of thermal creep behavior of advanced reactor materials. Therefore, the U.S. Department of Energy Office of Nuclear Energy (DOE-NE) National Reactor Innovation Center (NRIC) prioritizes the development of a thermal creep testing infrastructure for multiple subsize specimens to accelerate the demonstration and deployment of advanced reactor concepts. This report describes the activities for the construction of a thermal creep testing capability at Idaho National Laboratory (INL). The overall project consists of conceptual design, out-of-cell demonstration, and in-cell demonstration phases. During fiscal year (FY)-2021, the team finished the conceptual design of a thermal creep test facility that can test multiple subsize specimens. This conceptual design consisted of the determination of technical and functional requirements, the determination of the design space, and the preparation of the technical drawings. Technical and functional requirements were categorized as required and desired capabilities and the conceptual design was performed to meet all the required capabilities with the flexibility to achieve the desired capabilities. The design space identified the operational capacity of the creep frame for different advanced reactor relevant materials with the consideration of the feasible operation in the hotcell at the Fuels and Applied Science Building (FASB) at INL. Based on the requirements and design space, the multiple specimen creep frame was designed. The official INL engineering drawing process was started and the procurement of materials for construction was initiated. For FY-2022, the out-of-cell demonstration and final installation of the multiple creep frame is planned.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Comparative life cycle assessment of a modular cross-laminated timber residential building designed for disassembly and reuse versus traditional wood frame construction

There is a need for affordable housing across the U.S., with high-performance modular and prefabricated buildings providing a logical avenue for meeting some of this demand. However, there is a need to balance high performance construction – including low emissions – with affordability. To provide a proof-of-concept in meeting these goals, the Circular Home is a cross-laminated timber (CLT)-based deconstructible and reconfigurable single-family residence that meets high performance targets in moisture, energy, design, economics, and life cycle assessment (LCA). This study focuses on the LCA, presenting a cradle-to-cradle whole-building life cycle assessment (WBLCA) for the Circular Home and a functionally equivalent Baseline Home constructed with traditional materials and methods. The functional unit is 1 m 2 of gross floor area across 60 years. Revit building information models (BIM) provided material quantities and Tally LCA was utilized for impact data (inclusive of biogenic carbon sequestration), supplemented with manufacturer environmental product declarations (EPDs). The Circular Home outperforms the baseline residence in most measured impact categories, including global warming potential (GWP), producing −2.73 kgCO 2 eq/m 2 in embodied emissions, whereas the modeled baseline has an embodied GWP of 428 kgCO 2 eq/m 2 . The careful material selection and advanced building design optimizes performance, with the Circular Home containing only −0.006 times the embodied emissions and −0.02 times the operational emissions of its traditional counterpart. Finally, the unique contribution of this work is in the environmental impact comparison of a high-performance modular CLT structure that can be affordably scaled and mass produced in a U.S. market, compared to typical single family home construction.

Circularity↗

Identifying Key Drivers of Wildfires in the Contiguous US Using Machine Learning and Game Theory Interpretation

Abstract Understanding the complex interrelationships between wildfire and its environmental and anthropogenic controls is crucial for wildfire modeling and management. Although machine learning (ML) models have yielded significant improvements in wildfire predictions, their limited interpretability has been an obstacle for their use in advancing understanding of wildfires. This study builds an ML model incorporating predictors of local meteorology, land‐surface characteristics, and socioeconomic variables to predict monthly burned area at grid cells of 0.25° × 0.25° resolution over the contiguous United States. Besides these predictors, we construct and include predictors representing the large‐scale circulation patterns conducive to wildfires, which largely improves the temporal correlations in several regions by 14%–44%. The Shapley additive explanation is introduced to quantify the contributions of the predictors to burned area. Results show a key role of longitude and latitude in delineating fire regimes with different temporal patterns of burned area. The model captures the physical relationship between burned area and vapor pressure deficit, relative humidity (RH), and energy release component (ERC), in agreement with the prior findings. Aggregating the contribution of predictor variables of all the grids by region, analyses show that ERC is the major contributor accounting for 14%–27% to large burned areas in the western US. In contrast, there is no leading factor contributing to large burned areas in the eastern US, although large‐scale circulation patterns featuring less active upper‐level ridge‐trough and low RH two months earlier in winter contribute relatively more to large burned areas in spring in the southeastern US.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Transferability of data-driven, many-body models for CO 2 simulations in the vapor and liquid phases

Here, extending on the previous work by Riera et al. [J. Chem. Theory Comput. 16, 2246–2257 (2020)], we introduce a second generation family of data-driven many-body MB-nrg models for CO 2 and systematically assess how the strength and anisotropy of the CO 2 –CO 2 interactions affect the models’ ability to predict vapor, liquid, and vapor–liquid equilibrium properties. Building upon the many-body expansion formalism, we construct a series of MB-nrg models by fitting one-body and two-body reference energies calculated at the coupled cluster level of theory for large monomer and dimer training sets. Advancing from the first generation models, we employ the charge model 5 scheme to determine the atomic charges and systematically scale the two-body energies to obtain more accurate descriptions of vapor, liquid, and vapor–liquid equilibrium properties. Challenges in model construction arise due to the anisotropic nature and small magnitude of the interaction energies in CO 2 , calling for the necessity of highly accurate descriptions of the multidimensional energy landscape of liquid CO 2 . These findings emphasize the key role played by the training set quality in the development of transferable, data-driven models, which, accurately representing high-dimensional many-body effects, can enable predictive computer simulations of molecular fluids across the entire phase diagram.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗