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DOE OSTI2026

Spatial and temporal characterization of municipal solid waste based on resource recovery pathways

This study presents a two-year, quarterly assessment of MSW across four source sectors (residential, schools, restaurants, and grocery stores) from sixteen sites across five U.S. states. MSW was manually sorted into 27 categories and aggregated into pathway fractions: high-moisture (HM) organics, low-moisture (LM) organics, recyclable (RC) materials, and residuals for disposal. Organics represented 89 % of the MSW stream. The largest fraction was HM organics consisting of food waste (31 %) and yard waste (3 %), with large coefficient of variations (CV), 79 and 278 %, respectively, reflecting high seasonal and site variability that varied significantly (p < 0.01) across sampling periods. The HM fraction showed properties favorable for anaerobic digestion, with moisture content ranging from 56 to 95 % and volatile solids ranges of 86-95 %. In contrast, the LM and RC fractions remained more stable (plastics CV = 41 %; paper CV = 53 %) with heating values up to 26.9 MJ/kg across sources, reflecting suitability for gasification. Microstructural analysis revealed less porosity in residential waste sampled at the landfill, which can influence preprocessing efficiency and microbial accessibility. Pathway informed allocations showed that 35 % of MSW is suitable for anaerobic digestion, 36 % for gasification, and 18 % for recycling, leaving 11 % requiring landfill disposal. These results provide quantitative evidence to determine feedstock allocation, waste-to-energy system design, and the development of data-driven sustainability and resource recovery strategies within a circular bioeconomy.

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗

DOE OSTI2026

Superstructure Optimization of Waste Plastic Pyrolysis, Integrating Thermal, Catalytic, and Plasma Technologies with Machine Learning

Global plastic waste generation exceeds 430 million tonnes per year, yet fewer than 9% are recycled in the United States. Pyrolysis offers a chemical recycling route at scale, but existing techno-economic and life cycle assessments fix product yields to single pure polymers, producing economic and environmental outputs that break down when the feed composition changes. Here, we present a superstructure optimization framework that addresses this by embedding a composition-aware random forest yield predictor, trained on 566 pyrolysis experiments, within a full-scale process simulation. Product distributions update automatically as feed allocation shifts across four reactor chemistries: conventional thermal, catalytic (HZSM-5), thermal oxo-degradation, and nonequilibrium CO2 plasma. The optimal superstructure achieves minimum selling prices of −0.56 to −0.76/kg feed and global warming potentials of −0.276 to −0.322 kg CO2-eq/kg feed across four commodity price scenarios, confirming profitable, carbon-negative operation without tipping fees. Carbon abatement costs of $\$$0.46 to $\$$1.25/kg CO2-eq are competitive with direct air capture. Sensitivity analysis shows that the catalytic-plasma split fraction is the single largest driver of both economic and climate performance, while hydrocracking allocation in the wax upgrading stage is emission-neutral across the full variable range. Mixed plastic waste streams, evaluated as composition-variable feedstocks rather than pure resins, are profitable and carbon-negative across realistic market conditions. These results give a quantitative basis for reactor selection, circular economy investment, and policy design targeting chemical recycling on a large scale.

Life cycle assessment↗

DOE OSTI2024

Life Cycle Greenhouse Gas Emissions of Growing Intermediate Winter Oilseed Feedstocks for Sustainable Aviation Fuel Production

Ensuring an adequate supply of feedstock is a key challenge to achieving a significant production volume of sustainable aviation fuels (SAFs). One promising feedstock for SAFs is intermediate winter oilseeds added to existing crop production as alternatives to the winter fallow period. In this work, three intermediate winter oilseed crops─camelina ( Camelina sativa L. Crantz .), carinata ( Brassica carinata ), and pennycress ( Thlaspi arvense L .)─are evaluated for their life cycle greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions when harvested and processed into hydroprocessed renewable jet (HRJ). We evaluate solvent extraction (SE) and mechanical pressing as alternative oil extraction methods and examine the impacts of various allocation methods used in the oil extraction process. The GHG emissions reduction potential of camelina-, carinata-, and pennycress-derived HRJs are 50.4%, 65.2%, and 65.7%, respectively, compared to petroleum jet fuel, with SE as an oil extraction method and under mass-based allocation. Combined with the estimated production potential of camelina, carinata, and pennycress as intermediate winter oilseed, 2.5 billion gallons of HRJ can be produced annually, and the total GHG savings could amount to 19.3 million tons when these HRJs replace petroleum jet fuels. In addition, we collect literature information to assess the impacts of these intermediate winter oilseeds on indirect land use change emissions and soil organic carbon sequestration potentials.

camelina↗

DOE OSTI2024

Two-Way Option Contracts That Facilitate Adaptive Water Reallocation in the Western United States

Many water markets in the western United States (U.S.) have the ability to reallocate water temporarily during drought, often as short-term water rights leases from lower value irrigated activities to higher value urban uses. Regulatory approval of water transfers, however, typically takes time and involves high transaction costs that arise from technical and legal analyses, discouraging short-term leasing. This leads municipalities to protect against drought-related shortfalls by purchasing large volumes of infrequently used permanent water rights. High transaction costs also result in municipal water rights rarely being leased back to irrigators in wet or normal years, reducing agricultural productivity. This research explores the development of a multi-year two-way option (TWO) contract that facilitates leasing from agricultural-to-urban users during drought and leasing from urban-to agricultural users during wet periods. The modeling framework developed to assess performance of the TWO contracts includes consideration of the hydrologic, engineered, and institutional systems governing the South Platte River Basin in Colorado where there is growing competition for water between municipalities (e.g., the city of Boulder) and irrigators. The modeling framework is built around StateMod, a network-based water allocation model used by state regulators to evaluate water rights allocations and potential rights transfers. Results suggest that the TWO contracts could allow municipalities to maintain supply reliability with significantly reduced rights holdings at lower cost, while increasing agricultural productivity in wet and normal years. Additionally, the TWO contracts provide irrigators with additional revenues via net payments of option fees from municipalities.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2025

Modeling Mycorrhizal Carbon Costs in Temperate Forests: The Impacts of Functional Diversity and Global Change Factors

Mycorrhizal fungi form symbiotic relationships with most plant species, facilitating nutrient acquisition while consuming a significant fraction of the plant's photosynthetic carbon (C), which we define as the mycorrhizal C cost. Drivers of the mycorrhizal C cost, which is crucial for predicting environmental impacts on plant productivity, remain under-explored and difficult to quantify. Ecosystem models that incorporate mycorrhizae can offer insights into mycorrhizal C cost dynamics, but their predictions have rarely been validated against empirical data. Here, in this study, we used the Myco-CORPSE model, which explicitly simulates mycorrhizal processes alongside soil carbon and nitrogen cycling, to investigate the drivers of mycorrhizal C cost in temperate forests. Applying this model to over 1,800 forest inventory plots across the eastern United States, we found that the simulations matched published data, showing higher C allocation to ectomycorrhizal (ECM) fungi (16.0% of net primary production (NPP)) compared to arbuscular mycorrhizal (AM) fungi (5.8% of NPP). Further analysis showed that mixed forests, co-dominated by both AM and ECM trees, allocated less C to mycorrhizal fungi compared to forests dominated by either AM or ECM fungi alone, due to complementary nutrient acquisition strategies. Elevated Nitrogen (N) deposition and higher temperatures reduce mycorrhizal C costs, favoring AM strategies. Conversely, elevated CO 2 (eCO 2 ) increased plant N demand and mycorrhizal C costs, favoring ECM strategies that access organic N sources. These findings underscore the critical role of mycorrhizal functional diversity in plant nutrient acquisition and C dynamics, providing new insights into how mycorrhizal symbioses respond to global change.

Shao, Siya [Dartmouth College, Hanover, NH (United↗

DOE OSTI2025

Life-cycle analysis of microalgae-based polyurethane foams

Polyurethane plastics are essential in many consumer and commercial products such as insulation, furniture, automotive interiors, and clothing. Pathways for producing polyurethane from microalgae offer an opportunity to reduce greenhouse gas emissions and other environmental impacts and can incorporate processes that avoid the use of toxic isocyanates typically used in conventional polyurethane production processes. In this study, the greenhouse gas emissions, fossil energy, and water consumption of biobased polyurethane and biobased non-isocyanate polyurethane were evaluated via life-cycle analysis using the R&D Greenhouse Gases, Regulated Emissions, and Energy Use in Technologies model. Microalgae-based polyurethane foam was found to achieve greenhouse gas emission reductions of up to 79% compared with conventional polyurethane foam production. The greenhouse gas reductions for the non-isocyanate microalgae polyurethane pathway are slightly lower at 58% compared with conventional polyurethane foam. However, it offers additional benefits by reducing toxicity potential compared to the isocyanate polyurethane pathway. The analysis also included a biorefinery-level analysis to evaluate the impact of incorporating polyurethane production into fuel-processing microalgae biorefineries. The sensitivity analyses conducted in this study reveal that improved algae cultivation strategies can lead to decreases of up to 127% and 80% in GHG emissions from the baseline process of Bio-PU and Bio-NIPU, respectively. Likewise, implementation of renewable electricity can result in up to 128% and 74% lower GHG emissions compared to the baseline production of Bio-PU and Bio-NIPU, respectively. Finally, the analysis evaluated different coproduct handling methods including displacement and allocation (based on mass, energy, and market-value). The results suggest that it is important to consider both the displacement and allocation methods as these led to significant differences in the environmental impacts.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

DOE OSTI2025

Towards an Introspective Dynamic Model of Globally Distributed Computing Infrastructures

Large-scale scientific collaborations like ATLAS, Belle II, CMS, DUNE, and others involve hundreds of research institutes and thousands of researchers spread across the globe. These experiments generate petabytes of data, with volumes soon expected to reach exabytes. Consequently, there is a growing need for computation, including structured data processing from raw data to consumer-ready derived data, extensive Monte Carlo simulation campaigns, and a wide range of end-user analysis. To manage these computational and storage demands, centralized workflow and data management systems are implemented. However, decisions regarding data placement and payload allocation are often made disjointly and via heuristic means. A significant obstacle in adopting more effective heuristic or AI-driven solutions is the absence of a quick and reliable introspective dynamic model to evaluate and refine alternative approaches. In this study, we aim to develop such an interactive system using real-world data. By examining job execution records from the PanDA workflow management system, we have pinpointed key performance indicators such as queuing time, error rate, and the extent of remote data access. The dataset includes five months of activity. Additionally, we are creating a generative AI model to simulate time series of payloads, which incorporate visible features like category, event count, and submitting group, as well as hidden features like the total computational load—derived from existing PanDA records and computing site capabilities. These hidden features, which are not visible to job allocators, whether heuristic or AI-driven, influence factors such as queuing times and data movement.

kilic, Ozgur Ozan [Brookhaven National Laboratory ↗

DOE OSTI2026

Used Nuclear Fuel Management Using the Next Generation System Analysis Model

The U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) is leading the National effort to manage the back end of the nuclear fuel cycle, encompassing the safe transportation, storage/staging, and/or eventual disposal of used nuclear fuel (UNF) and high-level radioactive waste. The Next Generation System Analysis Model (NGSAM) is DOE’s discrete-event, agent-based simulation tool designed to model the full life cycle of UNF from reactor discharge to final disposal. NGSAM supports the DOE Office of Spent Fuel and High-Level Waste Disposition by enabling a detailed, scenario-based analysis of logistics, infrastructure, and shipping strategies. NGSAM replaces legacy models with a modern, flexible platform built on Repast Simphony and enhanced by the Process Analysis Tool. NGSAM simulates the movement and interaction of individual fuel assemblies with system components such as canisters, casks, railcars, and facilities. The model integrates with the Java Transportation Operations Model to plan and execute transportation scenarios, supporting both constrained and unconstrained resource allocation. Key features include customizable allocation and acceptance algorithms, detailed facility-level operations, and a Quick Edit tool for rapid scenario adjustments. NGSAM supports multimodal transportation modeling (e.g. rail, road, barge) and provides comprehensive cost, schedule, and infrastructure data. NGSAM utilizes data from sources such as DOE’s STANDARDS UNF database and DOE’s Stakeholder Tool for Assessing Radioactive Transportation, while also allowing user-defined inputs for scenario customization. NGSAM enables stakeholders to evaluate complex UNF management strategies, assess system performance under varying assumptions, and inform decision making for future infrastructure investments. Its modular architecture and integration with other Integrated Waste Management System tools make it a critical asset for planning the safe and efficient disposition of the Nation’s growing UNF inventory.

Craig, Brian [Argonne National Laboratory (ANL)]↗

DOE OSTI2026

Supporting multiple hardware architectures at CMS: the integration and validation of POWER9

Computing resources in the Worldwide LHC Computing Grid (WLCG) have been based entirely on the x86 architecture for more than two decades. In the near future, however, heterogeneous non-x86 resources, such as ARM, POWER and Risc-V, will become a substantial fraction of the resources that will be provided to the LHC experiments, due to their presence in existing and planned world-class HPC installations. The CMS experiment, one of the four large detectors at the LHC, has started to prepare for this situation, with the CMS software stack (CMSSW) already compiled for multiple architectures. In order to allow for a production use, the tools for workload management and job distribution need to be extended to be able to exploit heterogeneous architectures. Profiting from the opportunity to exploit the first sizable IBM Power9 allocation available on Marconi100 HPC system at CINECA, CMS developed all the needed modifications to the CMS workload management system. After a successful proof of concept, a full physics validation has been performed in order to bring the system in production. The experiences are of very high value, when it comes to commissioning of the similar (even larger) Summit HPC system at Oak Ridge, where CMS is also expecting a resource allocation. Moreover the compute power of those systems is being provided also via GPUs and this represents an extremely valuable opportunity to exploit the offloading capability already implemented in CMSSW. The status of the current integration including the exploitation of the GPUs, the results of the validation as well as the future plans will be shown and discussed.

Boccali, Tommaso [INFN, Pisa]↗

DOE OSTI2025

Network-Aware and Welfare-Maximizing Dynamic Pricing for Energy Sharing

The proliferation of behind-the-meter (BTM) distributed energy resources (DER) within the electrical distribution network presents significant supply and demand flexibilities, but also introduces operational challenges such as voltage spikes and reverse power flows. In response, this paper proposes a network-aware dynamic pricing framework tailored for energy-sharing coalitions that aggregate small, but ubiquitous, BTM DER downstream of a distribution system operator's (DSO) revenue meter that adopts a generic net energy metering (NEM) tariff. By formulating a Stackelberg game between the energy-sharing market leader and its prosumers, we show that the dynamic pricing policy induces the prosumers toward a network-safe operation and decentrally maximizes the energysharing social welfare. The dynamic pricing mechanism involves a combination of a locational ex-ante dynamic price and an ex-post allocation, both of which are functions of the energy sharing's BTM DER. The ex-post allocation is proportionate to the price differential between the DSO NEM price and the energy-sharing locational price. Simulation results using real DER data and the IEEE 13-bus test systems illustrate the dynamic nature of network-aware pricing at each bus, and its impact on voltage.

aggregates↗

DOE OSTI2025

A Versatile Simulated Data Transport Layer for in Situ Workflows Performance Evaluation

In situ processing does not only allow scientific applications to face the explosion in data volume and velocity but also to address the time constraints of many simulation-analysis workflows by providing scientists with early insights about their applications at runtime. Multiple frameworks implement the concept of a data transport layer (DTL) to enable such in situ workflows. These tools are very versatile, directly or indirectly access the data generated on the same node, another node of the same compute cluster, or a completely distinct node, and allow data publishers and subscribers to run on the same computing resources or not. This versatility puts on researchers the onus of taking key decisions related to resource allocation and how to transport data to ensure the most efficient execution of their in situ workflows. However, domain scientists and workflow practitioners lack the appropriate tools to assess the respective performance of particular design and deployment options. In this paper we introduce a versatile simulated DTL designed to provide researchers with insights on the respective performance of different execution scenarios of in situ workflows. This open-source, standalone library builds on the SimGrid toolkit and can be linked to any SimGrid-based simulator. It facilitates the evaluation of the performance behavior, at scale, of different data transport configurations and the study of the effects of resource allocation strategies. We demonstrate the scalability, versatility, and accuracy of this simulated DTL by reproducing the execution of two synthetic benchmarks and of a real-world in situ workflow composed of an MPI application and a parallel data analysis. Results of simulations run on a single core show that the proposed library can simulate the interactions of tens of thousands of simulated processes deployed on two interconnected commodity clusters in a few seconds, and the execution by a thousand simulated processes of an in situ workflow in less than three minutes.

Suter, Fred [ORNL] (ORCID:0000000319021955)↗

DOE OSTI2026

Interpretable Models for Workflow Differentiation in High-Performance Scientific Networks

Scientific workflows in high-performance networks spawn hundreds of interdependent flows that must be managed collectively—yet existing network classifiers treat each flow in isolation, leading to fragmented QoS decisions and missed interflow patterns. We present a novel traffic classification solution that operates at the workflow level, distinguishing entire filetransfer operations from streaming analytics by capturing how concurrent flows interact and burst together. We introduce a workflow identification window (WIW) that ingests raw packet headers from parallel flows into unified tensors, preserving the spatial-temporal patterns that differentiate scientific workflows. This approach achieves 98.7% accuracy using CNN, LSTM, and hybrid architectures, while maintaining 84% accuracy on production traffic collected a week later—demonstrating robustness to temporal drift. By integrating SHAP and GradCAM explainability, we reveal that early-packet timing patterns and cross-flow correlations drive classification decisions, providing operators with interpretable insights. Our system enables coherent workflow-level QoS enforcement and dynamic bandwidth allocation in scientific networks, eliminating manual per-flow configuration while maintaining classification latency at millisecond level.

Giannakou, Anna [LBL, Berkeley]↗

DOE OSTI2025

Adaptive Computing for Scale-Up Problems

Adaptive Computing is an application-agnostic outer loop framework to strategically deploy simulations and experiments to guide decision making for scale-up analysis. Resources are allocated over successive batches, which makes the allocation adaptive to some objective such as optimization or model training. The framework enables the characterization and management of uncertainties associated with predictive models of complex systems when scale-up questions lead to significant model extrapolation. A key advancement of this framework is its integration of multi-fidelity surrogate modeling, uncertainty management, and automated orchestration of various computing and experimentation resources into a single integrated software package. This enables efficient multi-fidelity modeling across multiple computing resources by incorporating real-world constraints such as relative queue times and throughput on individual machines into the multi-fidelity sampling decision. We discuss applications of this framework to problems in the renewable energy space, including biofuels production, material synthesis, perovskite crystal growth, and building electrical loads.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

DOE OSTI2024

A Model for Hybrid Systems for Production Cost Modeling Studies Considering Ancillary Services

This paper introduces a model for simulating hybrid plants participating in energy and ancillary services for bulk power system studies. The model considers a hybrid plant comprised of a renewable energy source, a thermal power unit, a storage unit, fixed power loads, or any combination of these technologies. The model focuses on Production Cost Modeling (PCM) studies under the assumption of centralized dispatch. We present an example case study to illustrate the use of the model in a single-stage production cost model similar to those conducted by planning agencies. We explore the allocation of behind-the-meter ancillary services products and total energy participation to hybrid plant sub-assets and the resulting impacts on the system's ancillary service allocation. The model is implemented and simulated in a unit commitment problem in the RTS test system, which was modified to include a hybrid plant asset.

ancillary services↗

DOE OSTI2025

Techno-Economic Analysis of Data-Driven and Transactive Approaches for Resilience Enhancement

As extreme weather events lead to more frequent power outages, understanding and enhancing grid resilience is critical to mitigating economic losses and non-energy impacts from service disruptions. Here, this study introduces a novel techno-economic analysis framework for evaluating resilience enhancement mechanisms. The framework combines grid response modeling with a co-simulation approach and valuation methodology to provide a comprehensive assessment. We apply this framework to a realistic case study of the Texas grid during Winter Storm Uri in February 2021. Two advanced resilience strategies are analyzed: a data-driven rolling outage mechanism and a transactive energy (TE) based allocation scheme. The rolling outage scheme selectively serves customers based on real-time curtailment needs, while the TE scheme allows customers to trade energy allocations according to their preferences. Our findings show that both the rolling outage and TE schemes significantly outperform conventional methods (i.e. controlled outages) by reducing the amount of energy not supplied to customers by 41% and 64%, respectively. These approaches also enhance flexibility and customer satisfaction, while improving energy utilization for greater resilience. Additionally, they maintain thermal comfort about 3.5 times better and substantially lower customer risk exposure. A key contribution of this study is addressing both utility and customer perspectives while considering both energy and non-energy impacts. The techno-economic analysis indicates that implementing these resilience enhancement strategies would incur an additional 1.1Bto1.6B in utility costs but has the potential to avoid 17.3Bto18B of customer losses as compared to existing solutions, thereby underscoring the value of investing in advanced resilience, as it provides significant societal benefits to customers.

42 ENGINEERING↗

DOE OSTI2025

Microbiome Adaptation Could Amplify Modeled Projections of Global Soil Carbon Loss With Climate Warming

Warming alters soil microbial traits through ecological and evolutionary processes, directly influencing the decomposition of organic matter, which significantly affects global soil carbon emissions. Yet, soil carbon models largely ignore these processes and their implications for global responses to warming. Here, we incorporate eco-evolutionary theory into a mechanistic model describing microbial soil carbon decomposition to address the question of whether such processes could have consequential effects on climate carbon feedbacks globally. We assume that a key trait of microbes, their resource allocation to production of exoenzymes (which facilitate decomposition of organic matter)—is optimized to environmental temperatures by natural selection. We find that eco-evolutionary optimization results in microbes allocating more resources to enzyme production under warming. When applied at the global scale, eco-evolutionary optimization enhances the biological realism of soil carbon models and significantly amplifies global soil carbon loss by 2100. Our results highlight the significant potential of microbial eco-evolutionary responses to influence carbon cycle feedbacks to climate change, and motivate an urgent need for more comprehensive data to accurately quantify the adaptive potential of microbiomes in response to climate change.

Biodiversity & Conservation↗

DOE OSTI2025

Historical Land Management Alters New Soil Carbon Inputs by Annual and Perennial Bioenergy Crops

Bioenergy and bioproduct markets are expanding to meet demand for climate-friendly goods and services. Perennial biomass crops are particularly well suited for this goal because of their high yields, low input requirements, and potential to increase soil carbon (C). However, it is unclear how much C is allocated into belowground pools by perennial bioenergy crops and whether the belowground benefits vary with nitrogen (N) fertilizer inputs. Using in situ 13 C pulse-chase labeling, we tested whether the sterile perennial grass Miscanthus × giganteus (miscanthus) or annual maize transfers more photosynthetic C to belowground pools. The experiment took place at two sites in Central and Northwest (NW) Iowa with different management histories and two nitrogen (N) fertilizer rates (0 and 224 kg N ha −1 year −1 ) to determine if the fate of plant-derived soil C depends on soil fertility and crop type (perennial or annual). Maize allocated a greater percentage of total new 13 C to roots than miscanthus, but miscanthus had greater new 13 C in total and belowground plant biomass. We found strong interactions between site and most soil measurements—including new 13 C in mineral and particulate soil organic matter (SOM) pools—which appears to be driven by differences in historical fertilizer management. The NW Iowa site, with a history of manure inputs, had greater plant-available nutrients (phosphorus, potassium, and ammonium) in soils, and resulted in less 13 C from miscanthus in SOM pools compared to maize (approximately 64% less in POM and 70% less in MAOM). In more nutrient-limited soils (Central site), miscanthus transferred 4.5 times more 13 C than maize to the more stable mineral-associated SOM pool. Our results suggest that past management, including historical manure inputs that affect a site's soil fertility, can influence the net C benefits of bioenergy crops.

13C↗

DOE OSTI2026

Physiological Controls on Carbon Fluxes and Biomass Production in Miscanthus: Insights From a Process‐Based Agroecosystem Model

Biomass crops serve as essential feedstocks for renewable energy and bioproducts and play a critical role in achieving lower emissions in the transportation sector. However, dedicated perennial biomass crops such as Miscanthus × giganteus (Miscanthus) remain underrepresented in process-based agroecosystem models, limiting robust evaluation of their economic and environmental performance. In this study, we developed a data-constrained representation of the sterile triploid Miscanthus (IL clone) within the process-based model ecosys, integrating global sensitivity analysis, ensemble simulation, and parameter calibration. Planting, harvesting, and fertilization practices consistent with field management were incorporated, and phenology was constrained using PhenoCam-derived Green Chromatic Coordinate (GCC) data. Using the Morris global sensitivity analysis method, we identified 11 key physiological parameters governing plant carbon, water, and nutrient relations, particularly processes associated with CO 2 assimilation. We then conducted ensemble simulations by perturbing these parameters and calibrated the model against eddy covariance fluxes and field-measured biomass. Building on the calibrated operating state, parameter-response analyses show that different photosynthetic processes influence productivity in different ways. Protein allocation determines whether productivity increases toward a higher level, whereas electron transport capacity controls additional gains once protein allocation approaches saturation. These findings demonstrate that parameter importance depends on physiological context and on which photosynthetic processes remain limiting. Calibration and validation against observations show that ecosys can reliably reproduce carbon and water fluxes, as well as both above- and belowground biomass, with post-calibration GPP R 2 improving from 0.67 to 0.95 during the calibration period and remaining high during validation (R 2 = 0.95). These results provide a mechanistic foundation for regional simulations and sustainable bioenergy assessments.

ecosys↗