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Time and Measurement Days

Questions in data analysis involving the concepts of time and measurement are often pushed into the background or reserved for a philosophical discussion. Some examples are: a) Is causality a consequence of the laws of physics, or can the arrow of time be reversed? b) Can we determine the arrow of time of an event? c) Do we need the continuum hypothesis for the underlying function in any measurement process? d) Can we say anything about the analyticity of the underlying process of an event? e) Would it be valid to model a non-analytical process as function of time? f) What are the implications of all these questions for classical Fourier techniques? However, in the age of big data gathered either from space missions supplying ultra-precise long time series, or e.g. LIGO data from the ground, the moment to bring these questions to the foreground seems arrived. The limitations of our understanding of some fundamental processes is emphasized by the lack of solution for problems open for more than 2 decades, such as the non-detection of solar g-modes, or the modal identification of main sequence stellar pulsators like delta Scuti stars. Flicker noise or 1/f noise, for example, attributed in solar-like stars to granulation, is analyzed mostly only to apply noise reduction techniques, neither considering the classical problem of 1/f noise that was introduced a 100 years ago, nor taking into account ergodic or non-ergodic solutions that make inapplicable spectral analysis techniques in practice. This topic was discussed by Nicholas W. Watkins during the ITISE meeting held in Granada in 2016. There he presented preliminary results of his research on Mandelbrot's related work. We reproduce here his quotation of Mandelbrot (1999) "There is a sharp contrast between a highly anomalous ("non-white") noise that proceeds in ordinary clock time and a noise whose principal anomaly is that it is restricted to fractal time", suggesting a connection with the above proposed topics that could be phrased as the following additional questions:a) Is self-organized criticality (SOC) frequent in astrophysical phenomena? b) Could all fractals in nature be considered stochastic? c) Could we establish mathematical/physical relationships between chaotic and fractal behaviors in time series? d) Could the differences between fractals and chaos in terms of analyticity be used to understand the residuals of the fitting of stellar light curves? In this meeting we would like to approximate these problems from a holistic and multidisciplinary perspective, taking into account not only technical issues but also the deeper implications. In particular the concept of connectivity (introduced in Pascual-Granado et al. A&A, 2015) could be used to implement, within the framework of ARMA processes, an "arrow of time" (see attached document), and so studying the possible implications in the concept of time as envisaged by Watkins.

data analysis↗

Advanced Lightweight Metallic Fuselage Project Manufacturing Trade Study

Recent advances in large-scale flow forming of integrally stiffened cylinders (ISCs) have motivated evaluation of available technologies for rapid manufacturing of metallic fuselages. The current state-of-the-art in flow forming of ISCs produces 10-ft. diameter, 5-ft. long barrels with integral longitudinal blade stiffeners, and these single-piece ISCs are produced in approximately 1.5 hours. While other manufacturing processes are required to incorporate additional structural elements (ASE) such as circumferential ring frames, reinforcements around window and door cut-outs, and floors to the ISCs to complete the fuselage structure, flow forming technology may assist the aerospace industry in meeting manufacturing rate demands. In order to evaluate this technology, a fuselage manufacturing demonstration article (MDA) fabricated from two ISCs is scheduled for fabrication and delivery to NASA Langley Research Center (LaRC) by the end of 2022. In this study, eight manufacturing technologies were assessed to downselect candidate manufacturing processes for adding ASE to complete the MDA. A literature review and evaluation of contractor-produced panels covering a spectrum of welding and additive manufacturing (AM) processes were conducted at NASA LaRC. The analytical hierarchy process (AHP) was used to evaluate figures of merit (FOMs) for selecting manufacturing process(es) to integrate ASE with the ISCs to form a fuselage MDA. The AHP results revealed that scalability, structural performance, and distortion control were the most valued criteria for downselecting the manufacturing process to construct the internal stiffening structures. Based on the FOMs, this study concluded that a welding process is best suited for integrating the majority of the ASE, namely the circumferential ring frames. All of the welding processes received higher scores than AM processes due to higher maturity, higher structural performance, fewer post-processing requirements in machining and heat treating, and faster deposition rates. Among the welding processes, cold metal transfer (CMT) welding was ranked the most favorable process for assembling the MDA, with the other welding processes (laser welding (LW), friction stir welding (FSW), and refill friction stir spot welding (RFSSW)) scoring slightly lower. This was a consequence of the perceived maturity of the CMT welding process and its relatively high structural performance and low distortion resulting from the low heat input. Among the AM processes, CMT AM showed the greatest promise due to benefits derived from its scalability, lower 1st order process complexity, and low distortion. The AM processes may have potential for select applications, such as adding structural reinforcements around window and door cut-outs, but are not considered optimal for integrating the entire MDA.

Manufacturing↗

Absolute magnitude estimation and relative judgement approaches to subjective workload assessment

Two rating scale techniques employing an absolute magnitude estimation method, were compared to a relative judgment method for assessing subjective workload. One of the absolute estimation techniques used was an unidimensional overall workload scale and the other was the multidimensional NASA-Task Load Index technique. Thomas Saaty's Analytic Hierarchy Process was the unidimensional relative judgment method used. These techniques were used to assess the subjective workload of various single- and dual-tracking conditions. The validity of the techniques was defined as their ability to detect the same phenomena observed in the tracking performance. Reliability was assessed by calculating test-retest correlations. Within the context of the experiment, the Saaty Analytic Hierarchy Process was found to be superior in validity and reliability. These findings suggest that the relative judgment method would be an effective addition to the currently available subjective workload assessment techniques.

Vidulich, Michael A.↗

Analytical study of space processing of immiscible materials for superconductors and electrical contacts

The results of a study conducted to determine the role space processing or materials research in space plays in the superconductor and electrical contact industries are presented. Visits were made to manufacturers, users, and research organizations connected with these products to provide information about the potential benefits of the space environment and to exchange views on the utilization of space facilities for manufacture, process development, or research. In addition, space experiments were suggested which could result in improved terrestrial processes or products. Notable examples of these are, in the case of superconductors, the development of Nb-bronze alloys (Tsuei alloys) and, in the electrical contact field, the production of Ag-Ni or Ag-metal oxide alloys with controlled microstructure for research and development activities as well as for product development. A preliminary experimental effort to produce and evaluate rapidly cooled Pb-Zn and Cu-Nb-Sn alloys in order to understand the relationship between microstructure and superconducting properties and to simulate the fine structure potentially achievable by space processing was also described.

Gelles, S. H.↗

Thermodynamics and kinetics of the sulfation of porous calcium silicate

The sulfation of plasma sprayed calcium silicate in flowing SO2/air mixtures at 900 and 1000 C was investigated thermogravimetrically. Reaction products were analyzed using electron microprobe and X-ray diffraction analysis techniques, and results were compared with thermodynamic predictions. The percentage, by volume, of SO2 in air was varied between 0.036 and 10 percent. At 10 percent SO2 the weight gain curve displays a concave downward shoulder early in the sulfation process. An analytical model was developed which treats the initial process as one which decays exponentially with increasing time and the subsequent process as one which decays exponentially with increasing weight gain. At lower SO2 levels the initial rate is controlled by the reactant flow rate. At 1100 C and 0.036 percent SO2 there is no reaction, in agreement with thermodynamic predictions.

Miller, R. A.↗

Lunar lander and return propulsion system trade study

This trade study was initiated at NASA/JSC in May 1992 to develop and evaluate main propulsion system alternatives to the reference First Lunar Outpost (FLO) lander and return-stage transportation system concept. Thirteen alternative configurations were developed to explore the impacts of various combinations of return stage propellants, using either pressure or pump-fed propulsion systems and various staging options. Besides two-stage vehicle concepts, the merits of single-stage and stage-and-a-half options were also assessed in combination with high-performance liquid oxygen and liquid hydrogen propellants. Configurations using an integrated modular cryogenic engine were developed to assess potential improvements in packaging efficiency, mass performance, and system reliability compared to non-modular cryogenic designs. The selection process to evaluate the various designs was the analytic hierarchy process. The trade study showed that a pressure-fed MMH/N2O4 return stage and RL10-based lander stage is the best option for a 1999 launch. While results of this study are tailored to FLO needs, the design date, criteria, and selection methodology are applicable to the design of other crewed lunar landing and return vehicles.

Hurlbert, Eric A.↗

Process-Hardened, Multi-Analyte Sensor for Characterizing Rocket Plume Constituents

A multi-analyte sensor was developed that enables simultaneous detection of rocket engine combustion-product molecules in a launch-vehicle ground test stand. The sensor was developed using a pin-printing method by incorporating multiple sensor elements on a single chip. It demonstrated accurate and sensitive detection of analytes such as carbon dioxide, carbon monoxide, kerosene, isopropanol, and ethylene from a single measurement. The use of pin-printing technology enables high-volume fabrication of the sensor chip, which will ultimately eliminate the need for individual sensor calibration since many identical sensors are made in one batch. Tests were performed using a single-sensor chip attached to a fiber-optic bundle. The use of a fiber bundle allows placement of the opto-electronic readout device at a place remote from the test stand. The sensors are rugged for operation in harsh environments.

Goswami, Kisholoy↗

Pultrusion process characterization

Pultrusion is a process through which high-modulus, lightweight composite structural members such as beams, truss components, stiffeners, etc., are manufactured. The pultrusion process, though a well-developed processing art, lacks a fundamental scientific understanding. The objective here was to determine, both experimentally and analytically, the process parameters most important in characterizing and optimizing the pultrusion of uniaxial fibers. The effects of process parameter interactions were experimentally examined as a function of the pultruded product properties. A numerical description based on these experimental results was developed. An analytical model of the pultrusion process was also developed. The objective of the modeling effort was the formulation of a two-dimensional heat transfer model and development of solutions for the governing differential equations using the finite element method.

Vaughan, James G.↗

Extraterrestrial consumables production and utilization

Potential oxygen requirements for lunar-surface, lunar-orbit, and planetary missions are presented with emphasis on: (1) emergency survival of the crew, (2) provision of energy consumables for vehicles, and (3) nondependency on an earth supply of oxygen. Although many extraterrestrial resource processes are analytically feasible, this study has considered hydrogen and fluorine processing concepts to obtain oxygen or water (or both). The results are quite encouraging and are extrapolatable to other processes. Preliminary mission planning and sequencing analysis has enabled the programmatic evaluation of using lunar-derived oxygen relative to transportation cost as a function of vehicle delivery and operational capability.

Sanders, A. P.↗

Earth Science Data Fusion with Event Building Approach

Objectives of the NASA Information And Data System (NAIADS) project are to develop a prototype of a conceptually new middleware framework to modernize and significantly improve efficiency of the Earth Science data fusion, big data processing and analytics. The key components of the NAIADS include: Service Oriented Architecture (SOA) multi-lingual framework, multi-sensor coincident data Predictor, fast into-memory data Staging, multi-sensor data-Event Builder, complete data-Event streaming (a work flow with minimized IO), on-line data processing control and analytics services. The NAIADS project is leveraging CLARA framework, developed in Jefferson Lab, and integrated with the ZeroMQ messaging library. The science services are prototyped and incorporated into the system. Merging the SCIAMACHY Level-1 observations and MODIS/Terra Level-2 (Clouds and Aerosols) data products, and ECMWF re- analysis will be used for NAIADS demonstration and performance tests in compute Cloud and Cluster environments.

Lukashin, C.↗

Cost-Benefit Analysis for the Advanced Near Net Shape Technology (ANNST) Method for Fabricating Stiffened Cylinders

This cost-benefit analysis assesses the benefits of the Advanced Near Net Shape Technology (ANNST) manufacturing process for fabricating integrally stiffened cylinders. These preliminary, rough order-of-magnitude results report a 46 to 58 percent reduction in production costs and a 7-percent reduction in weight over the conventional metallic manufacturing technique used in this study for comparison. Production cost savings of 35 to 58 percent were reported over the composite manufacturing technique used in this study for comparison; however, the ANNST concept was heavier. In this study, the predicted return on investment of equipment required for the ANNST method was ten cryogenic tank barrels when compared with conventional metallic manufacturing. The ANNST method was compared with the conventional multi-piece metallic construction and composite processes for fabricating integrally stiffened cylinders. A case study compared these three alternatives for manufacturing a cylinder of specified geometry, with particular focus placed on production costs and process complexity, with cost analyses performed by the analogy and parametric methods. Furthermore, a scalability study was conducted for three tank diameters to assess the highest potential payoff of the ANNST process for manufacture of large-diameter cryogenic tanks. The analytical hierarchy process (AHP) was subsequently used with a group of selected subject matter experts to assess the value of the various benefits achieved by the ANNST method for potential stakeholders. The AHP study results revealed that decreased final cylinder mass and quality assurance were the most valued benefits of cylinder manufacturing methods, therefore emphasizing the relevance of the benefits achieved with the ANNST process for future projects.

Stoner, Mary Cecilia↗

Leveraging Automated Fiber Placement Computer Aided Process Planning Framework for Defect Validation and Dynamic Layup Strategies

Process planning represents an essential stage of the Automated Fiber Placement (AFP) workflow. It develops useful and efficient machine processes based upon the working material, composite design, and manufacturing resources. The current state of process planning requires a high degree of interaction from the process planner and could greatly benefit from increased automation. Therefore, a list of key steps and functions are created to identify the more difficult and time-consuming phases of process planning. Additionally, a set of metrics must exist by which to evaluate the effectiveness of the manufactured laminate from the machine code created during the Process Planning stage. Layup strategies, in addition to dog ears, stagger shifts, steering constraints, and starting points, represented the group of functions labeled as process optimization and ranked the highest in terms of priority for automation. The laminates resulting from the selected parameters are evaluated through the occurrences of principal defect metrics such as fiber gaps, overlaps, angle deviation and steering violations. This document presents an automated software solution to the layup strategy and starting point selection phase of process planning. A series of ply scenarios are generated with variations of these ply parameters and evaluated according to a set of metrics entered by the Process Planner. These metrics are generated through use of the Analytical Hierarchy Process (AHP), where relative importance between each of the fiber features are defined. The ply scenarios are selected which reduce the overall fiber feature scores based on the defects the Process Planner wishes to minimize.

HiCAM↗

Process-Based Cost Estimation for Ramjet/Scramjet Engines

Process-based cost estimation plays a key role in effecting cultural change that integrates distributed science, technology and engineering teams to rapidly create innovative and affordable products. Working together, NASA Glenn Research Center and Boeing Canoga Park have developed a methodology of process-based cost estimation bridging the methodologies of high-level parametric models and detailed bottoms-up estimation. The NASA GRC/Boeing CP process-based cost model provides a probabilistic structure of layered cost drivers. High-level inputs characterize mission requirements, system performance, and relevant economic factors. Design alternatives are extracted from a standard, product-specific work breakdown structure to pre-load lower-level cost driver inputs and generate the cost-risk analysis. As product design progresses and matures the lower level more detailed cost drivers can be re-accessed and the projected variation of input values narrowed, thereby generating a progressively more accurate estimate of cost-risk. Incorporated into the process-based cost model are techniques for decision analysis, specifically, the analytic hierarchy process (AHP) and functional utility analysis. Design alternatives may then be evaluated not just on cost-risk, but also user defined performance and schedule criteria. This implementation of full-trade study support contributes significantly to the realization of the integrated development environment. The process-based cost estimation model generates development and manufacturing cost estimates. The development team plans to expand the manufacturing process base from approximately 80 manufacturing processes to over 250 processes. Operation and support cost modeling is also envisioned. Process-based estimation considers the materials, resources, and processes in establishing cost-risk and rather depending on weight as an input, actually estimates weight along with cost and schedule.

Singh, Brijendra↗

Investigation of single-event upset (SEU) in an advanced bipolar process

An extensive analytical and experimental study SEU in an advanced silicon bipolar process was made. The modeling used process and device parameters to model the SEU charge, collection, and circuit response derived from a special version of PISCES in cylindrical coordinates and SPICE, respectively. Data are reported for test cells of various sizes.

Zoutendyk, John A.↗

Comparative Analysis of Thermal Conversion Technologies for Deep Space Missions

Radioisotope power systems (RPS) utilizing Plutonium-238 as a heat source for thermal-to-electric energy conversion have been used as a reliable power source for NASA’s deep space missions for sixty years. Recent innovations and improvements to thermal energy technologies show potential increases to radioisotope system efficiencies from current measurements of ~5-7% to efficiencies upwards of 20%. This report surveys and ranks recent, innovative thermal-to-electric energy conversion research technologies. Technologies being developed at universities and industry are compared with respect to thermal conversion method and relevant key performance parameters. Key performance parameters are identified as system specific power per kg, efficiency, power output, technology readiness level, and system mass. Analytical Hierarchy Process (AHP) was utilized to create weighted values for each evaluation criterion. The AHP tables combined with decision matrices create table scores for past, present, and potential future systems. The table score was combined with a conversion method score in an adjustable system to add value to flight-proven or well-tested thermal conversion technologies such as thermoelectrics. While the three highest-ranking systems reviewed are currently being developed by NASA’s RPS Program, the additional highest-ranking systems not under-development by RPS could warrant further research.

Radioisotope Power System↗

Parallel Computational Environment for Substructure Optimization

Design optimization of large structural systems can be attempted through a substructure strategy when convergence difficulties are encountered. When this strategy is used, the large structure is divided into several smaller substructures and a subproblem is defined for each substructure. The solution of the large optimization problem can be obtained iteratively through repeated solutions of the modest subproblems. Substructure strategies, in sequential as well as in parallel computational modes on a Cray YMP multiprocessor computer, have been incorporated in the optimization test bed CometBoards. CometBoards is an acronym for Comparative Evaluation Test Bed of Optimization and Analysis Routines for Design of Structures. Three issues, intensive computation, convergence of the iterative process, and analytically superior optimum, were addressed in the implementation of substructure optimization into CometBoards. Coupling between subproblems as well as local and global constraint grouping are essential for convergence of the iterative process. The substructure strategy can produce an analytically superior optimum different from what can be obtained by regular optimization. For the problems solved, substructure optimization in a parallel computational mode made effective use of all assigned processors.

Gendy, Atef S.↗

Microscopic Evaluation of Friction Plug Welds- Correlation to a Processing Analysis

Recently an analysis of dynamic forge load data from the friction plug weld (FPW) process and the corresponding tensile test results showed that good plug welds fit well within an analytically determined processing parameter box. There were, however, some outliers that compromised the predictions. Here the microstructure of the plug weld material is presented in view of the load analysis with the intent of further understanding the FPW process and how it is affected by the grain structure and subsequent mechanical properties.

Rabenberg, Ellen M.↗