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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 91 records · Page 5

AutoAtlas: Neural Network for 3D Unsupervised Partitioning and Representation Learning

Here we present a novel neural network architecture called AutoAtlas for fully unsupervised partitioning and representation learning of 3D brain Magnetic Resonance Imaging (MRI) volumes. AutoAtlas consists of two neural network components: one neural network to perform multi-label partitioning based on local texture in the volume, and a second neural network to compress the information contained within each partition. We train both of these components simultaneously by optimizing a loss function that is designed to promote accurate reconstruction of each partition, while encouraging spatially smooth and contiguous partitioning, and discouraging relatively small partitions. We show that the partitions adapt to the subject specific structural variations of brain tissue while consistently appearing at similar spatial locations across subjects. AutoAtlas also produces very low dimensional features that represent local texture of each partition. We demonstrate prediction of metadata associated with each subject using the derived feature representations and compare the results to prediction using features derived from FreeSurfer anatomical parcellation. Since our features are intrinsically linked to distinct partitions, we can then map values of interest, such as partition-specific feature importance scores onto the brain for visualization.

42 ENGINEERING↗

The Global Spectra-Trait Initiative: A database of paired leaf spectroscopy and functional traits associated with leaf photosynthetic capacity (v1.0.0)

The Global Spectra-Trait Initiative (GSTI) aims to generate generalizable spectra trait models using reflectance data to predict leaf traits associated with the photosynthesis capacity of leaves. It comprises a synthesized dataset of leaf trait data, input datasets and code. Leaf traits include the maximum carboxylation rate of rubisco (Vcmax), the maximum electron transport rate (Jmax), the dark respiration, as well as the prediction of leaf nitrogen, leaf mass per area (LMA), and leaf water content (LWC). The dataset comprises >7500 paired observations from around 400 species from a broad range of biomes. This dataset comprises a zip file of the GSTI GitHub repository (https://github.com/plantphys/gsti), the synthesized database (.csv) and database metadata files. This dataset was updated on 2025-12-12 with minor edits to mirror the accepted manuscript version and GitHub release (Version 1.0.0 (ESSD accepted version)). Edits included minor changes to the project documentation on GitHub and removal of 12 duplicate entries from the database.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

A machine learning approach for determining temperature-dependent bandgap of metal oxides utilizing Allen–Heine–Cardona theory and O’Donnell model parameterization

To evaluate the high temperature sensing properties of metal oxide and perovskite materials suitable for use in combustion environments, it is necessary to understand the temperature dependence of their bandgaps. Although such temperature-driven changes can be calculated via the Allen–Heine–Cardona (AHC) theory, which assesses electron–phonon coupling for the bandgap correction at given temperatures, this approach is computationally demanding. Another approach to predict bandgap temperature-dependence is the O’Donnell model, which uses analytical expressions with multiple fitting parameters that require bandgap information at 0 K. This work employs data-driven Gaussian process regression (GPR) to predict the parameters employed in the O’Donnell model from a set of physical features. We use a sample of 54 metal oxides for which density functional theory has been performed to calculate the bandgap at 0 K, and the AHC calculations have been carried out to determine the shift in the bandgap at non-zero temperatures. As the AHC calculations are impractical for high-throughput screening of materials, the developed GPR model attempts to alleviate this issue by predicting the O'Donnell parameters purely from physical features. To mitigate the reliability issues arising from the very small size of the dataset, we apply a Bayesian technique to improve the generalizability of the data-driven models as well as quantify the uncertainty associated with the predictions. The method captures well the overall trend of the O’Donnell parameters with respect to a reduced feature set obtained by transforming the available physical features. Quantifying the associated uncertainty helps us understand the reliability of the predictions of the O’Donnell parameters and, therefore, the bandgap as a function of temperature for any novel material.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

High-Temperature Gas Sensor Materials with Properties Predicted via First-Principles Calculations with Machine Learning Modeling and Experimental Corroboration

Understanding the temperature dependence of functional properties of sensing materials is vital for their applications in combustion environments. The electron-phonon coupling that derives the electronic structure change with temperatures is a key property of interest as it affects other sensing responses. Herein, we first assess the temperature dependence of band gap renormalization in sensing materials by employing Allen-Heine-Cardona (AHC) theory with density functional theory (DFT) simulations corroborated with experimental observation. As the AHC calculations are impractical for high-throughput screening of materials, we employ data-driven Gaussian process regression to predict the parameters employed in the O’Donnell empirical model from a set of physical features. To mitigate the reliability issues arising from the small size of the dataset, we apply a Bayesian technique to improve the generalizability of the data-driven models as well as to quantify the uncertainty associated with theoretical predictions. These models capture well the overall trend of the O’Donnell parameters with respect to a reduced feature set obtained by transforming the available physical features. Quantifying the associated uncertainty helps us understand the reliability of the predictions and, therefore, the variation of bandgap as a function of temperature for other novel materials. The predicted candidates from machine learning models are further validated by experiments and DFT calculations.

bandgap renormalization↗

Optimizing shift selection in multilevel Monte Carlo for disconnected diagrams in lattice QCD

The calculation of disconnected diagram contributions to physical signals is a computationally expensive task in Lattice QCD. To extract the physical signal, the trace of the inverse Lattice Dirac operator, a large sparse matrix, must be stochastically estimated. Because the variance of the stochastic estimator is typically large, variance reduction techniques must be employed. Multilevel Monte Carlo (MLMC) methods reduce the variance of the trace estimator by utilizing a telescoping sequence of estimators. Frequency Splitting is one such method that uses a sequence of inverses of shifted operators to estimate the trace of the inverse lattice Dirac operator, however there is no a priori way to select the shifts that minimize the cost of the multilevel trace estimation. Here we present a sampling and interpolation scheme that is able to predict the variances associated with Frequency Splitting under displacements of the underlying space time lattice. The interpolation scheme is able to predict the variances to high accuracy and therefore chooses shifts that correspond to an approximate minimum of the cost for the trace estimation. We show that Frequency Splitting with the chosen shifts displays significant speedups over multigrid deflation, and that these shifts can be used for multiple configurations within the same ensemble with no penalty to performance.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Interpolation as a means of shift selection for multilevel Monte Carlo with lattice displacements

The calculation of disconnected diagram contributions to physical signals is a computationally expensive task in Lattice QCD. To extract the physical signal, the trace of the inverse Lattice Dirac operator, a large sparse matrix, must be stochastically estimated. Because the variance of the stochastic estimator is typically large, variance reduction techniques must be employed. Multilevel Monte Carlo (MLMC) methods reduce the variance of the trace estimator by utilizing a telescoping sequence of estimators. Frequency Splitting is one such method that uses a sequence of inverses of shifted operators to estimate the trace of the inverse of the lattice Dirac operator, however there is no a priori way to select the shifts that minimize the cost of the multilevel trace estimation. We present a sampling and interpolation scheme that is able to predict the variances associated with Frequency Splitting under displacements of the underlying space time lattice. The interpolation scheme is able to predict the variances to high accuracy and therefore choose shifts that correspond to an approximate minimum of the cost for the trace estimation. We show that Frequency Splitting with the chosen shifts displays significant speedups over multigrid deflation

Whyte, Travis↗

Scaling of Electron Heating by Magnetization During Reconnection and Applications to Dipolarization Fronts and Super-Hot Solar Flares

Electron ring velocity space distributions have previously been seen in numerical simulations of magnetic reconnection exhausts and have been suggested to be caused by the magnetization of the electron outflow jet by the compressed reconnected magnetic fields (Shuster et al., 2014, https://doi. org/10.1002/2014GL060608). Here, we present a theory of the dependence of the major and minor radii of the ring distributions solely in terms of upstream (lobe) plasma conditions, thereby allowing a prediction of the associated temperature and temperature anisotropy of the rings in terms of upstream parameters. We test the validity of the prediction using 2.5-dimensional particle-in-cell (PIC) simulations with varying upstream plasma density and temperature, finding excellent agreement between the predicted and simulated values. We confirm the Shuster et al. suggestion for the cause of the ring distributions, and also find that the ring distributions are located in a region marked by a plateau, or shoulder, in the reconnected magnetic field profile. The predictions of the temperature are consistent with observed electron temperatures in dipolarization fronts, and may provide an explanation for the generation of plasma with temperatures in the 10s of MK in super-hot solar flares. A possible extension of the model to dayside reconnection is discussed. Since ring distributions are known to excite whistler waves, the present results should be useful for quantifying the generation of whistler waves in reconnection exhausts.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

Constitutive Model Development for Aging Polymer Encapsulants (ASC P&EM FY2021 L2 Milestone 7836)

This SAND report fulfills the completion requirements for the ASC Physics and Engineering Modeling Level 2 Milestone 7836 during Fiscal Year 2021. The Sandia Simplified potential energy clock (SPEC) non-linear viscoelastic constitutive model was developed to predict a whole host of polymer glass physical behaviors in order to provide a tool to assess the effects of stress on these materials over their lifecycle. Polymer glasses are used extensively in applications such as electronics packaging, where encapsulants and adhesives can be critical to device performance. In this work, the focus is on assessing the performance of the model in predicting material evolution associated with long-term physical aging, an area that the model has not been fully vetted in. These predictions are key to utilizing models to help demonstrate electronics packaging component reliability over decades long service lives, a task that is very costly and time consuming to execute experimentally. The initiating hypothesis for the work was that a model calibration process can be defined that enables confidence in physical aging predictions under ND relevant environments and timescales without sacrificing other predictive capabilities. To test the hypothesis, an extensive suite of calibration and aging data was assembled from a combination of prior work and collaborating projects (Aging and Lifetimes as well as the DoD Joint Munitions Program) for two mission relevant epoxy encapsulants, 828DGEBA/DEA and 828DGEBA/T403. Multiple model calibration processes were developed and evaluated against the entire set of data for each material. A qualitative assessment of each calibration's ability to predict the wide range of aging responses was key to ranking the calibrations against each other. During this evaluation, predictions that were identified as non-physical, i.e., demonstrated something that was qualitatively different than known material behavior, were heavily weighted against the calibration performance. Thus, unphysical predictions for one aspect of aging response could generate a lower overall rating for a calibration process even if that process generated better quantitative predictions for another aspect of aging response. This insurance that all predictions are qualitatively correct is important to the overall aim of utilizing the model to predict residual stress evolution, which will depend on the interplay amongst the different material aging responses. The DSC-focused calibration procedure generated the best all-around aging predictions for both materials, demonstrating material models that can qualitatively predict the whole host of different physical aging responses that have been measured. This step forward in predictive capability comes from an unanticipated source, utilization of calorimetry measurements to specify model parameters. The DSC-focused calibration technique performed better than compression-focused techniques that more heavily weigh measurements more closely related to the structural responses to be predicted. Indeed, the DSC-focused calibration procedure was only possible due to recent incorporation of the enthalpy and heat capacity features into SPEC that was newly verified during this L2 milestone. Fundamentally similar aspects of the two material model calibrations as well as parametric studies to assess sensitives of the aging predictions are discussed within the report. A perspective on the next steps to the overall goal of residual stress evolution predictions under stockpile conditions closes the report.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Harnessing Uncertainty through Functional Data Analysis in Gas Breakthrough Data

Detecting subsurface explosions from radionuclide gas migration through rock fractures is an effective way to identify nuclear activity. Los Alamos National Laboratory (LANL) has developed simulation methods, based on data from the 1962 Hardhat underground nuclear test, to predict gas breakthrough times at the surface. However, these methods rely on an imperfect understanding of the relationship between rock damage and fracture permeability. Our clinic project studies methods for predicting breakthrough curves that characterize total mass produced as a function of time, as well as quantifying the uncertainty associated with these predictions. The model that is currently employed to relate damage to permeability uses an empirically motivated power-law expression, with a range of parameter values that are compatible with the experimental Hardhat data. We develop emulators, built from functional data analysis techniques and trained on simulation data, that rapidly predict the gas breakthrough curve given a damage field and given the parameter values of the power-law equation. Using Bayesian regression, we address the problem of uncertainty quantification in our emulators. Finally, in order to test the robustness of the model, we further validate it on a damage field representing different physical conditions.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Predicting potential adverse events using safety data from marketed drugs

Abstract Background While clinical trials are considered the gold standard for detecting adverse events, often these trials are not sufficiently powered to detect difficult to observe adverse events. We developed a preliminary approach to predict 135 adverse events using post-market safety data from marketed drugs. Adverse event information available from FDA product labels and scientific literature for drugs that have the same activity at one or more of the same targets, structural and target similarities, and the duration of post market experience were used as features for a classifier algorithm. The proposed method was studied using 54 drugs and a probabilistic approach of performance evaluation using bootstrapping with 10,000 iterations. Results Out of 135 adverse events, 53 had high probability of having high positive predictive value. Cross validation showed that 32% of the model-predicted safety label changes occurred within four to nine years of approval (median: six years). Conclusions This approach predicts 53 serious adverse events with high positive predictive values where well-characterized target-event relationships exist. Adverse events with well-defined target-event associations were better predicted compared to adverse events that may be idiosyncratic or related to secondary target effects that were poorly captured. Further enhancement of this model with additional features, such as target prediction and drug binding data, may increase accuracy.

Daluwatte, Chathuri↗

Atomic-scale Imaging of PGM-free Catalyst Active Sites by 30 keV 4D-STEM

Platinum group metal (PGM)-free catalysts have attracted a large amount of attention due to their potential for enabling low-cost, commercially viable hydrogen fuel cells and electrolyzers [1]. Degradation of cell performance remains a significant challenge, however, currently limiting implementation of devices that utilize PGM-free materials [2]. Controlling degradation in these materials requires a better understanding of the atomic structure of active sites, thought to be FeN4 structures within a graphitic carbon lattice, which would enable more accurate prediction of the associated degradation pathways. The exact structural arrangement of active sites in these materials is still debated since a range of structures have been computationally predicted and methods to directly validate these models are still needed [1,3-5].While scanning transmission electron microscopy (STEM) has provided initial glimpses into the nature of the proposed active sites, detailed evaluation of the structure of these sites is challenging since they involve defects, edges, and nitrogen dopants in the graphitic lattice, which are susceptible to beam damage [6,7]. Conventional STEM imaging and spectroscopy methods exacerbate this problem with dose-inefficiency or nonideal contrast characteristics for imaging light and heavy elements simultaneously. A method that minimizes damage while generating dose-efficient, easily-interpretable contrast for both light and heavy elements is therefore needed to facilitate imaging of sensitive active site atomic structure.Here, we demonstrate direct atomic-scale imaging of PGM-free catalyst active sites by low-voltage four-dimensional (4D)-STEM. To accomplish this, we pair a 30 keV aberration-corrected probe, which minimizes knock-on damage, with a fast pixelated detector that has optimal performance at low beam energies [8]. We show how this setup enables relatively simple center-of-mass (CoM) techniques [9,10] to produce images with an increased signal-to-noise ratio (SNR) and light-element contrast over conventional imaging modes, allowing the entire active site structure to be imaged at the atomic scale. Moreover, we show how electron ptychography [11,12] enables images with further improved characteristics to be obtained, for example by minimizing residual aberrations, which provides a more accurate structural representation. The increased understanding that these low-voltage 4D-STEM techniques will provide about the atomic structure of PGM-free active sites and their associated degradation pathways will facilitate rational design of next-generation materials, promoting development of low-cost hydrogen fuel cells, electrolyzers, and other energy conversion devices [13]. References:[1] U Martinez et al., Adv. Mater. 31 (2019), p. 1806545.[2] Y Shao et al., Adv. Mater. 31 (2019), p. 1807615.[3] J Kneebone et al., J. Phys. Chem. C 121, (2017), p.16283.[4] T Mineva et al., ACS Catal. 9 (2019), p. 9359.[5] J Li et al., Nat. Catal. 4 (2021), p. 10.[6] T Susi et al., ACS Nano 6 (2012), p. 8837.[7] P Zelenay and DJ Myers, US Department of Energy Hydrogen and Fuel Cells Program 2017 Annual Merit Review and Peer Evaluation Meeting, Washington, DC (2017).[8] H Ryll et al., J. Inst. 11 (2016), p. P04006.[9] K Müller et al., Nat. Commun. 5 (2014), p. 5653.[10] I Lazic et al., Ultramicroscopy 160 (2016), p. 265.[11] H Yang et al., Nat. Commun. 7 (2016), p. 12532.[12] Y Jiang et al., Nature 559 (2018), p. 343. [13] Research sponsored by the Hydrogen and Fuel Cell Technologies Office, Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy, US Department of Energy (DOE). Research was conducted at the Center for Nanophase Materials Sciences, which is a DOE Office of Science User Facility.

Zachman, Michael↗

Amundsen Sea Embayment ice-sheet mass-loss predictions to 2050 calibrated using observations of velocity and elevation change

Mass loss from the Amundsen Sea Embayment of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet is a major contributor to global sea-level rise (SLR) and has been increasing over recent decades. Predictions of future SLR are increasingly modelled using ensembles of simulations within which model parameters and external forcings are varied within credible ranges. Accurately reporting the uncertainty associated with these predictions is crucial in enabling effective planning for, and construction of defences against, rising sea levels. Calibrating model simulations against current observations of ice-sheet behaviour enables the uncertainty to be reduced. Here we calibrate an ensemble of BISICLES ice-sheet model simulations of ice loss from the Amundsen Sea Embayment using remotely sensed observations of surface elevation and ice speed. Each calibration type is shown to be capable of reducing the 90% credibility bounds of predicted contributions to SLR by 34 and 43% respectively.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Scalable statistical inference of photometric redshift via data subsampling

Handling big data has largely been a major bottleneck in traditional statistical models. Consequently, when accurate point prediction is the primary target, machine learning models are often preferred over their statistical counterparts for bigger problems. But full probabilistic statistical models often outperform other models in quantifying uncertainties associated with model predictions. We develop a data-driven statistical modeling framework that combines the uncertainties from an ensemble of statistical models learned on smaller subsets of data carefully chosen to account for imbalances in the input space. We demonstrate this method on a photometric redshift estimation problem in cosmology, which seeks to infer a distribution of the redshift—the stretching effect in observing the light of far-away galaxies—given multivariate color information observed for an object in the sky. Our proposed method performs balanced partitioning, graph-based data subsampling across the partitions, and training of an ensemble of Gaussian process models.

data subsampling↗

Uncertainty Aware Deep Learning for Particle Accelerators

Standard deep learning models for classification and regression applications are ideal for capturing complex system dynamics. However, their predictions can be arbitrarily inaccurate when the input samples are not similar to the training data. Implementation of distance aware uncertainty estimation can be used to detect these scenarios and provide a level of confidence associated with their predictions. In this paper, we present results from using Deep Gaussian Process Approximation (DGPA) methods for errant beam prediction at Spallation Neutron Source (SNS) accelerator (classification) and we provide an uncertainty aware surrogate model for the Fermi National Accelerator Lab (FNAL) Booster Accelerator Complex (regression).

Rajput, Kishansingh↗

An Overview of Wind Energy Production Prediction Bias, Losses, and Uncertainties

The financing of a wind farm directly relates to the preconstruction energy yield assessments which estimate the annual energy production for the farm. The accuracy and the precision of the preconstruction energy estimates can dictate the profitability of the wind project. Historically, the wind industry tended to overpredict the annual energy production of wind farms. Experts have been dedicated to eliminating such prediction errors in the past decade, and recently the industry is recording near-zero average energy prediction bias. Herein, we present an overview of the energy yield assessment errors across the global wind energy industry. We identify a long-term trend of reduction in the overprediction bias, whereas the uncertainty associated with the prediction error is prominent. We also summarize the recent advancements of the wind resource assessment process that justify the bias reduction, including the improvements in modeling and measurement techniques. Additionally, because the energy losses and uncertainties substantially influence the prediction error, we document and examine the estimated and observed loss and uncertainty values from the literature, according to the proposed framework in the International Electrotechnical Commission 61400-15 wind resource assessment standard. From our findings, we highlight the opportunities for the industry to move forward, such as the validation and reduction of prediction uncertainty, and the prevention of energy losses caused by wake effect and environmental events. Overall, this study provides a summary on how the wind energy industry has been quantifying and reducing prediction errors, energy losses, and production uncertainties. Finally, for this work to be as reproducible as possible, we include all of the data used in the analysis in appendices to the manuscript.

literature review↗

Active operator learning with predictive uncertainty quantification for partial differential equations

With the increased prevalence of neural operators being used to provide rapid solutions to partial differential equations (PDEs), understanding the accuracy of model predictions and the associated error levels is necessary for deploying reliable surrogate models in scientific applications. Existing uncertainty quantification (UQ) frameworks employ ensembles or Bayesian methods, which can incur substantial computational costs during both training and inference. Here, we propose a lightweight predictive UQ method tailored for Deep operator networks (DeepONets) that also generalizes to other operator networks. Numerical experiments on linear and nonlinear PDEs demonstrate that the framework’s uncertainty estimates are unbiased and provide accurate out-of-distribution uncertainty predictions with a sufficiently large training dataset. Our framework provides fast inference and uncertainty estimates that can efficiently drive outer-loop analyses that would be prohibitively expensive with conventional solvers. We demonstrate how predictive uncertainties can be used in the context of Bayesian optimization and active learning problems to yield improvements in accuracy and data-efficiency for outer-loop optimization procedures. In the active learning setup, we extend the framework to Fourier Neural Operators (FNO) and describe a generalized method for other operator networks. To enable real-time deployment, we introduce an inference strategy based on precomputed trunk outputs and a sparse placement matrix, reducing evaluation time by more than a factor of five. Our method provides a practical route to uncertainty-aware operator learning in time-sensitive settings.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Deeply uncertain: comparing methods of uncertainty quantification in deep learning algorithms

We present a comparison of methods for uncertainty quantification (UQ) in deep learning algorithms in the context of a simple physical system. Three of the most common uncertainty quantification methods - Bayesian Neural Networks (BNN), Concrete Dropout (CD), and Deep Ensembles (DE) - are compared to the standard analytic error propagation. We discuss this comparison in terms endemic to both machine learning ("epistemic" and "aleatoric") and the physical sciences ("statistical" and "systematic"). The comparisons are presented in terms of simulated experimental measurements of a single pendulum - a prototypical physical system for studying measurement and analysis techniques. Our results highlight some pitfalls that may occur when using these UQ methods. For example, when the variation of noise in the training set is small, all methods predicted the same relative uncertainty independently of the inputs. This issue is particularly hard to avoid in BNN. On the other hand, when the test set contains samples far from the training distribution, we found that no methods sufficiently increased the uncertainties associated to their predictions. This problem was particularly clear for CD. In light of these results, we make some recommendations for usage and interpretation of UQ methods.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗