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Comet/Asteroid Protection System (CAPS): A Space-Based System Concept for Revolutionizing Earth Protection and Utilization of Near-Earth Objects

There exists an infrequent, but significant hazard to life and property due to impacting asteroids and comets. There is currently no specific search for long-period comets, smaller near-Earth asteroids, or smaller short-period comets. These objects represent a threat with potentially little or no warning time using conventional ground-based telescopes. These planetary bodies also represent a significant resource for commercial exploitation, long-term sustained space exploration, and scientific research. The Comet/Asteroid Protection System (CAPS) would expand the current detection effort to include long-period comets, as well as small asteroids and short-period comets capable of regional destruction. A space-based detection system, despite being more costly and complex than Earth-based initiatives, is the most promising way of expanding the range of detectable objects, and surveying the entire celestial sky on a regular basis. CAPS is a future spacebased system concept that provides permanent, continuous asteroid and comet monitoring, and rapid, controlled modification of the orbital trajectories of selected bodies. CAPS would provide an orbit modification system capable of diverting kilometer class objects, and modifying the orbits of smaller asteroids for impact defense and resource utilization. This paper provides a summary of CAPS and discusses several key areas and technologies that are being investigated.

Mazanek, Daniel D.↗

Comet/Asteroid Protection System (CAPS): Preliminary Space-Based Concept and Study Results

There exists an infrequent, but significant hazard to life and property due to impacting asteroids and comets. There is currently no specific search for long-period comets, smaller near-Earth asteroids, or smaller short-period comets. These objects represent a threat with potentially little or no warning time using conventional ground-based telescopes. These planetary bodies also represent a significant resource for commercial exploitation, long-term sustained space exploration, and scientific research. The Comet/Asteroid Protection System (CAPS) is a future space-based system concept that provides permanent, continuous asteroid and comet monitoring, and rapid, controlled modification of the orbital trajectories of selected bodies. CAPS would expand the current detection effort to include long-period comets, as well as small asteroids and short-period comets capable of regional destruction. A space-based detection system, despite being more costly and complex than Earth-based initiatives, is the most promising way of expanding the range of detectable objects, and surveying the entire celestial sky on a regular basis. CAPS would provide an orbit modification system capable of diverting kilometer class objects, and modifying the orbits of smaller asteroids for impact defense and resource utilization. This Technical Memorandum provides a compilation of key related topics and analyses performed during the CAPS study, which was performed under the Revolutionary Aerospace Systems Concepts (RASC) program, and discusses technologies that could enable the implementation of this future system.

Mazanek, Daniel D.↗

Advanced Solar Electric Propulsion for Planetary Defense

Once the current survey to identify all near-Earth objects larger than 140-m diameter is complete, the major hazard from asteroid impacts may be from asteroids in the 50- to 100-m diameter size range. High-power solar electric propulsion systems employed in “slow-push” techniques may be the best way to deflect asteroids in this size range if deflection is warranted. The relative performance of three slow-push techniques—gravity tractor (GT), enhanced gravity tractor (EGT), and ion beam deflection (IBD)—are compared, assuming solar electric propulsion vehicles derived from NASA’s Asteroid Redirect Robotic Mission concept vehicle. Both the enhanced gravity tractor and ion beam deflection concepts are shown to be significantly better than the standard gravity tractor concept. The Hall-thruster based enhanced gravity tractor systems and ion beam deflection systems (based on the use of high-power gridded ion thrusters) are shown to provide comparable performance, i.e., similar deflection times and propellant required. Enhanced gravity tractor systems require the acquisition of material from the surface of the hazardous object in order to achieve the required “enhancement” of the gravitational coupling force. This makes EGT systems sensitive to the rotational state and surface properties of the unknown object, and potentially severely limits its applicability. Ion beam deflection is completely independent of the characteristics of the threat object. In fact, it is the only asteroid deflection technique, slow-push or otherwise, that can make this claim, thus potentially greatly increasing its applicability relative to other deflection techniques. Finally, high-power IBD systems are shown to be capable of deflecting the fictitious asteroid 2015 PDC used in the hypothetical asteroid impact exercise conducted at the 2015 Planetary Defense Conference.

Brophy, John↗

Evaluating Short-warning Mitigation via Intentional Robust Disruption of a Hypothetical Impact of Asteroid 2023 NT1

We investigate various short-warning mitigation scenarios via fragmentation for a hypothetical impact of asteroid 2023 NT1, a near-Earth object (NEO) that was discovered on 2023 July 15, two days after its closest approach to Earth on July 13. The asteroid passed by Earth within ∼0.25 lunar distances, with a closest approach of ∼1 × 10 5 km and a velocity of 11.27 km s −1 . Its size remains largely uncertain, with an estimated diameter range of 26–58 m and a most probable estimate of 34 m (JPL Sentry, 2023 September 15; weighted by the NEO size frequency distribution). If 2023 NT1 had collided with Earth, it could have caused significant local damage. Assuming a spherical asteroid with a diameter of 34 m, uniform density of 2.6 g cm −3 , and impact velocity of 15.59 km s −1 , a collision would have yielded an estimated impact energy of ∼1.5 Mt, approximately 3 times the energy of the Chelyabinsk airburst in 2013. We analyze the effectiveness of mitigation via intentional robust disruption for objects similar to 2023 NT1. We utilize Pulverize It (PI), a NASA Innovative Advanced Concepts study of planetary defense via fragmentation, to model potential mitigation scenarios through simulations of hypervelocity asteroid disruption and atmospheric ground effects in the case of a terminal defense mode. Simulations suggest that PI is an effective multimodal approach for planetary defense that can operate in extremely short interdiction modes, in addition to long interdiction timescales with extended warning. Our simulations support the proposition that threats like 2023 NT1 can be effectively mitigated with intercepts of 1 day (or less) prior to impact, yielding minimal to no ground damage.

Asteroids↗

Asteroid Generated Tsunami Workshop: Summary of NASA/NOAA Workshop

A two-day workshop on tsunami generated by asteroid impacts in the ocean resulted in a broad consensus that the asteroid impact tsunami threat is not as great as previously thought, that airburst events in particular are unlikely to produce significant damage by tsunami, and that the tsunami contribution to the global ensemble impact hazard is substantially less than the contribution from land impacts. The workshop, led by Ethiraj Venkatapathy and David Morrison of NASA Ames, was organized into three sessions: 1) Near-field wave generation by the impact; 2) Long distance wave propagation; 3) Damage from coastal run-up and inundation, and associated hazard. Workshop approaches were to compare simulations to understand differences in the results and gain confidence in the modeling for both formation and propagation of tsunami from asteroid impacts, and to use this information for preliminary global risk assessment. The workshop focus was on smaller asteroids (diameter less than 250m), which represent the most frequent impacts.

Asteroid↗

Melting, vaporization, and energy partitioning for impacts on asteroidal and planetary objects

A three-dimensional smoothed particle hydrodynamics code was used to model normal and oblique impacts of silicate projectiles on asteroidal and planetary bodies. The energy of the system, initially in the kinetic energy of the impactor, is partitioned after impact into internal and kinetic energy of the impactor and the target body. These simulations show that, unlike the case of impacts onto a half-space, a significant amount of energy remains in the kinetic energy of the impacting body, as parts of it travel past the main planet and escape the system. This effect is greater for more oblique impacts, and for impacts onto the small planets. Melting and vaporization of both bodies were also examined. The amount of the target body melted was much greater in the case of smaller targets than for an impact of a similar scale on a larger body.

Smither, Catherine L.↗

PDC25 Epoch 1 Damage Risk Maps Content Key

These maps represent asteroid impact damage estimates modeled for the PDC25 Hypothetical Asteroid Impact Exercise, as part of the 9th AIAA Planetary Defense Conference (PDC2025). This exercise assesses a realistic but fictitious hypothetical scenario, not a real asteroid threat.

SMD↗

Scaling Laws for Impact Craters in Water

Tsunami waves from asteroid impacts into water are of concern from asteroids in the 200 m to 1 km diameter range because this spans the range from asteroids that will likely hit the surface and not airburst, but also be small enough that global climate effects will hopefully be minimal. Current estimates of impact tsunamis depend on either hydrocode simulations or on semi-analytical models. Unfortunately there is significant disagreement between these methods. One of the main reasons for the disparity is that the semi-analytical models such as Holsapple (1993) rely on experimental impacts into deep water. However for asteroids in the 200 - 1000 m range even the deep ocean basins can appear as shallow water impacts where the crater formed in the water reaches all the way to the sea floor. Another reason for the disparity arises from the linear interpolation of data across many orders of magnitude difference between Froude number (ratio of kinetic to gravitational energy) used in the laboratory experiments and what would be seen in an asteroid impact. The Gault & Sonett (1982) experiment shot millimeter sized glass spheres into water at 1 to 6 km/s and the Olevson (1969) experiment dropped millimeter sized water drops at a few meters per second. The goal of this work was to fill in the gaps and conduct experiments and simulations at the correct Froude numbers of interest, and in both deep and shallow water, to help resolve the disparity and extend the semi-analytical models.

Robertson, Darrel↗

Design of Spacecraft Missions to Test Kinetic Impact for Asteroid Deflection

There are currently over 8,000 known near-Earth asteroids (NEAs), and more are being discovered on a continual basis. More than 1,200 of these are classified as Potentially Hazardous Asteroids (PHAs) because their Minimum Orbit Intersection Distance (MOID) with Earth's orbit is <= 0.05 AU and their estimated diameters are >= 150 m. To date, 178 Earth impact structures have been discovered, indicating that our planet has previously been struck with devastating force by NEAs and will be struck again. Such collisions are aperiodic events and can occur at any time. A variety of techniques have been proposed to defend our planet from NEA impacts by deflecting the incoming asteroid. However, none of these techniques have been tested. Unless rigorous testing is conducted to produce reliable asteroid deflection systems, we will be forced to deploy completely untested -- and therefore unreliable -- deflection missions when a sizable asteroid on a collision course with Earth is discovered. Such missions will have a high probability of failure. We propose to address this problem with a campaign of deflection technology test missions deployed to harmless NEAs. The objective of these missions is to safely evaluate and refine the mission concepts and asteroid deflection system designs. Our current research focuses on the kinetic impactor, one of the simplest proposed asteroid deflection techniques in which a spacecraft is sent to collide with an asteroid at high relative velocity. By deploying test missions in the near future, we can characterize the performance of this deflection technique and resolve any problems inherent to its execution before needing to rely upon it during a true emergency. In this paper we present the methodology and results of our survey, including lists of NEAs for which safe and effective kinetic impactor test missions may be conducted within the next decade. Full mission designs are also presented for the NEAs which offer the best mission opportunities.

Hernandez, Sonia↗

Risk Estimation of Threatening Asteroids

When faced with the question of designing an asteroid deflection mission or with the decision of launching it, significant uncertainties are present in the asteroid’s physical properties, and its orbit solution. The success of the deflection mission relies heavily on these aspects. For example, a heavier than expected asteroid will reduce the imparted deflection DV. So will a larger porosity value by reducing the beta factor [1]. Here, we present a new capability that estimates asteroid impact risk under consideration of these uncertainties. The new method samples the uncertainty space along multiple dimensions, performs a predetermined deflection, propagates the deflected samples to the Earth, models the impact damage, and estimates the overall risk outcome. The work builds on the Probabilistic Asteroid Impact Risk (PAIR) assessment tool [2] by including orbital uncertainty and deflection capabilities. We demonstrate this risk estimation approach for threatening asteroids using the example of the fictitious impactor 2019 PDC. Such analysis provides a quantitative basis for the work of decision makers and disaster managers. It may further find application in areas such as mitigation mission planning where projected post-mitigation risk can be compared to premitigation levels as a means of cost-benefit analysis formitigation options.

Rumpf, Clemens↗

The Seismic Effect of Impacts on Asteroid Surface Morphology: Early Modeling Results

In recent years, spacecraft observations of asteroids 951 Gaspra, 243 Ida, 253 Mathilde, and 433 Eros have shown the overriding dominance of impact processes with regard to the structure and appearance of these small, irregular bodies. One currently unanswered question is: to what degree does seismic shaking from impacts affect the surface morphology of these bodies? Through detailed modeling, we begin to address this question.

Richardson, J. E.↗

Initial Results on the Meteoritic Component of new Sediment Cores Containing Deposits of the Eltanin Impact Event

The late Pliocene impact of the Eltanin asteroid is the only known asteroid impact in a deep- ocean (-5 km) basin . This was first discovered in 1981 as an Ir anomaly in sediment cores collected by the USNS Eltanin in 1965. In 1995, Polarstern expedition ANT XII/4 made the first geological survey of the suspected impact region. Three sediment cores sampled around the San Martin seamounts (approx. 57.5 S, 91 W) contained well-preserved impact deposits that include disturbed ocean sediments and meteoritic impact ejecta. The latter is composed of shock-melted asteroidal materials and unmelted meteorites. In 2001, the FS Polarstern returned to the impact area during expedition ANT XVIIU5a. At least 16 cores were recovered that contain ejecta deposits. These cores and geophysical data from the expedition can be used to map the effects of the impact over a region of about 80,000 square km. To date we have measured Ir concentrations in sediments from seven of the new cores and preliminary data should be available for a few more by the time of the meeting. Our initial interpretation of these data is that there is a region in the vicinity of the San Martin Seamounts comprising at least 20,000 square km in which the average amount of meteoritic material deposited was more than 1 g per square cm. This alone is enough material to support a 500 m asteroid. Beyond this is a region of about 60,000 square km, mostly to the north and west, where the amount of ejecta probably averages about 0.2 g per square cm. Another 400 km to the east, USNS Eltanin core E10-2 has about 0.05 g per square cm, so we know that ejecta probably occurs across more than a million square km of ocean floor. A key to future exploration of this impact is to find evidence of the ejecta at more sites distant from the seamounts. We currently have almost no data from regions to the west or south of the San Martin seamounts.

Kyte, Frank T.↗

Arcjet Ablation of Stony and Iron Meteorites

A test campaign was conducted placing meteorites in the 60 MW plasma Arcjet Interaction Heating Facility at NASA Ames Research Center, with the aim to achieve flight-relevant conditions for asteroid impacts in Earth's atmosphere and to provide insight into how meteoritic materials respond to extreme entry heating environments. The test conditions at heat flux of 4000 W/m2 and 140 kPa stagnation pressure are comparable to those experienced by a 30-meter diameter asteroid moving at 20 km/s velocity at 65 km altitude in the Earth's atmosphere. Test objects were a stony type H5 ordinary chondrite (Tamdakht) and an iron type IAB-MG meteorite (Campo Del Cielo), and included the terrestrial analogs Dense Flood Basalt and Fused Silica. All samples were exposed for only a few seconds in the plasma stream. Significant melt flow and vaporization was observed for both the stony and iron meteorites during exposure. Mass loss from spallation of fragments was also observed. Vapor emitted atomic lines from alkali metals and iron, but did not emit the expected MgO molecular band emissions. The meteoritic melts flowed more rapidly, indicating lower viscosity, than those of Fused Silica. The surface recession was mapped. The effective heat of ablation derived from this showed that ablation under these conditions occurred in the melt-dominated regime. Ablation parameters have an effect on ground damage estimates. A bias in ablation parameters towards the melt-dominated regime would imply that impacting asteroids survive to lower altitude, and therefore could possibly have airbursts with a larger ground damage footprint.

Asteroid↗

Arcjet Ablation of Stony and Iron Meteorites

A test campaign was conducted placing meteorites in the 60 MW plasma Arcjet Interaction Heating Facility at NASA Ames Research Center, with the aim to achieve flight-relevant conditions for asteroid impacts in Earth's atmosphere and to provide insight into how meteoritic materials respond to extreme entry heating environments. The test conditions at heat flux of 4000 W/m2 and 140 kPa stagnation pressure are comparable to those experienced by a 30-meter diameter asteroid moving at 20 km/s velocity at 65 km altitude in the Earth's atmosphere. Test objects were a stony type H5 ordinary chondrite (Tamdakht) and an iron type IAB-MG meteorite (Campo Del Cielo), and included the terrestrial analogs Dense Flood Basalt and Fused Silica. All samples were exposed for only a few seconds in the plasma stream. Significant melt flow and vaporization was observed for both the stony and iron meteorites during exposure. Mass loss from spallation of fragments was also observed. Vapor emitted atomic lines from alkali metals and iron, but did not emit the expected MgO molecular band emissions. The meteoritic melts flowed more rapidly, indicating lower viscosity, than those of Fused Silica. The surface recession was mapped. The effective heat of ablation derived from this showed that ablation under these conditions occurred in the melt-dominated regime. Ablation parameters have an effect on ground damage estimates. A bias in ablation parameters towards the melt-dominated regime would imply that impacting asteroids survive to lower altitude, and therefore could possibly have airbursts with a larger ground damage footprint.

Arcjet↗

Air-coupled tsunamis generated from impacts and airbursts: Our understanding before Hunga-Tonga Hunga-Ha'apai

The effort to prevent or mitigate the effects of an impact on Earth is known as planetary defense. A significant component of planetary defense research involves risk assessment. Much of our understanding of the risk from near-Earth objects comes from the geologic record in the form of impact craters, but not all asteroid impacts are crater-forming events. Small asteroids explode before reaching the surface, generating an airburst, and most impacts into the ocean do not penetrate the water to form a crater in the sea floor. The risk from these non-crater-forming ocean impacts and airbursts is difficult to quantify and represents a significant uncertainty in our assessment of the overall threat. We are currently working to better understand impact scenarios that can generate dangerous tsunamis. One of the suggested mechanisms for the production of asteroid–generated tsunamis is by direct coupling of the pressure wave to the water, analogous to the means by which a moving weather front can generate a meteotsunami. To test this hypothesis, we ran a series of airburst simulations and provided time-resolved pressure and wind profiles to use as source functions for tsunami models. We used the CTH hydrocode to model the various airburst scenarios to compare to the results of other simulations and provide time dependent boundary conditions as input to shallow-water wave propagation codes. The strongest and most destructive meteotsunamis are generated by atmospheric pressure oscillations with amplitudes of only a few hPa1 (mbar), corresponding to changes in sea level of a few cm. The resulting wave is strongest when there is a resonance between the ocean and the atmospheric forcing. A Proudman resonance takes place when the atmospheric disturbance’s translational speed (U) equals the longwave phase speed $\sqrt{gh}$ of shallow water wave. Coupling is strongest when the Froude number (Fr=U/c) is unity. A weather front propagates much slower than the speed of sound, so meteotsunamis are most common and dangerous in shallow bodies of water such as the Mediterranean Sea or Lake Michigan. By contrast, the blast wave from an airburst or crater-forming impact propagates at a speed faster than a tsunami in the deepest ocean, and a Proudman resonance cannot be achieved even though the overpressures are orders of magnitude greater. However, blast wave profiles are N-waves in which a sharp shock wave leading to overpressure is followed by a more gradual rarefaction to a much longer-duration underpressure phase. Even though the blast outruns the water wave it is forcing, the tsunami should continue to be driven by the out-of-resonance gradient associated with the suction phase, which may depend strongly on the details of the airburst or impact scenario. The open question is whether there are any conditions under which such an airburst-driven tsunami can be dangerous enough to contribute to the overall impact risk. We have also identified other potential mechanisms for airburst-generated tsunamis: 1) reaction force at the surface from the plume ejected into space, which carries significant momentum, 2) expanding toroidal vortices at the surface, which travel more slowly than the shock wave and can generate a Proudman resonance in relatively shallow ocean (such as continental shelf), and 3) steam explosion from seawater ablation by a “Type II” (Libyan Desert Glass-type) airburst in which the hot vapor jet descends to the surface. On January 15, 2022, the Hunga-Tonga Hunga-Ha’apai volcano, located approximately 60 km north of Tongatapu, the main island of Tonga, violently erupted with a powerful explosion, culminating the period of volcanic activity that started in December of 2021. This event and resulting tsunamis provided an existence proof for the air pressure wave coupling mechanism we proposed. It also suggests that it can be stronger and more significant over much greater distances than we contemplated, leading to global tsunamis associated with impact events on land as well as in the water. Large atmospheric explosions generate global Lamb waves with larger amplitudes, longer periods, and slower speeds than the local and regional blast waves we modeled prior to that event. This paper reviews our analysis and modeling of airburst-driven tsunamis prior to the 2022 Hunga-Tonga Hunga-Ha’apai tsunami, which was the subject of two presentations at the 2023 Planetary Defense Conference and is the subject of another paper currently in preparation.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Air-coupled tsunamis generated from impacts and airbursts: Our understanding before Hunga-Tonga Hunga-Ha'apai

The effort to prevent or mitigate the effects of an impact on Earth is known as planetary defense. A significant component of planetary defense research involves risk assessment. Much of our understanding of the risk from near-Earth objects comes from the geologic record in the form of impact craters, but not all asteroid impacts are crater-forming events. Small asteroids explode before reaching the surface, generating an airburst, and most impacts into the ocean do not penetrate the water to form a crater in the sea floor. The risk from these non-crater-forming ocean impacts and airbursts is difficult to quantify and represents a significant uncertainty in our assessment of the overall threat. We are currently working to better understand impact scenarios that can generate dangerous tsunamis.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗