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At least 91 records · Page 5

Intensification of North American Megadroughts through Surface and Dust Aerosol Forcing

Tree-ring-based reconstructions of the Palmer drought severity index (PDSI) indicate that, during the Medieval Climate Anomaly (MCA), the central plains of North America experienced recurrent periods of drought spanning decades or longer. These megadroughts had exceptional persistence compared to more recent events, but the causes remain uncertain. The authors conducted a suite of general circulation model experiments to test the impact of sea surface temperature (SST) and land surface forcing on the MCA megadroughts over the central plains. The land surface forcing is represented as a set of dune mobilization boundary conditions, derived from available geomorphological evidence and modeled as increased bare soil area and a dust aerosol source (32deg-44degN, 105deg-95degW). In the experiments, cold tropical Pacific SST forcing suppresses precipitation over the central plains but cannot reproduce the overall drying or persistence seen in the PDSI reconstruction. Droughts in the scenario with dust aerosols, however, are amplified and have significantly longer persistence than in other model experiments, more closely matching the reconstructed PDSI. This additional drying occurs because the dust increases the shortwave planetary albedo, reducing energy inputs to the surface and boundary layer. The energy deficit increases atmospheric stability, inhibiting convection and reducing cloud cover and precipitation over the central plains. Results from this study provide the first model-based evidence that dust aerosol forcing and land surface changes could have contributed to the intensity and persistence of the central plains megadroughts, although uncertainties remain in the formulation of the boundary conditions and the future importance of these feedbacks.

Earth surface↗

Airborne Particles: What We Have Learned About Their Role in Climate from Remote Sensing, and Prospects for Future Advances

Desert dust, wildfire smoke, volcanic ash, biogenic and urban pollution particles, all affect the regional-scale climate of Earth in places and at times; some have global-scale impacts on the column radiation balance, cloud properties, atmospheric stability structure, and circulation patterns. Remote sensing has played a central role in identifying the sources and transports of airborne particles, mapping their three-dimensional distribution and variability, quantifying their amount, and constraining aerosol air mass type. The measurements obtained from remote sensing have strengths and limitations, and their value for characterizing Earths environment is enhanced immensely when they are combined with direct, in situ observations, and used to constrain aerosol transport and climate models. A similar approach has been taken to study the role particles play in determining the climate of Mars, though based on far fewer observations. This presentation will focus what we have learned from remote sensing about the impacts aerosol have on Earths climate; a few points about how aerosols affect the climate of Mars will also be introduced, in the context of how we might assess aerosol-climate impacts more generally on other worlds.

aerosol-climate impacts↗

Causes and Predictability of the 2012 Great Plains Drought

Central Great Plains precipitation deficits during May-August 2012 were the most severe since at least 1895, eclipsing the Dust Bowl summers of 1934 and 1936. Drought developed suddenly in May, following near-normal precipitation during winter and early spring. Its proximate causes were a reduction in atmospheric moisture transport into the Great Plains from the Gulf of Mexico. Processes that generally provide air mass lift and condensation were mostly absent, including a lack of frontal cyclones in late spring followed by suppressed deep convection in summer owing to large-scale subsidence and atmospheric stabilization. Seasonal forecasts did not predict the summer 2012 central Great Plains drought development, which therefore arrived without early warning. Climate simulations and empirical analysis suggest that ocean surface temperatures together with changes in greenhouse gases did not induce a substantial reduction in summertime precipitation over the central Great Plains during 2012. Yet, diagnosis of the retrospective climate simulations also reveals a regime shift toward warmer and drier summertime Great Plains conditions during the recent decade, most probably due to natural decadal variability. As a consequence, the probability for severe summer Great Plains drought may have increased in the last decade compared to the 1980s and 1990s, and the so-called tail-risk for severe drought may have been heightened in summer 2012. Such an extreme drought event was nonetheless still found to be a rare occurrence within the spread of 2012 climate model simulations. Implications of this study's findings for U.S. seasonal drought forecasting are discussed.

Forecasts↗

Observations of the Interaction and Transport of Fine Mode Aerosols With Cloud and/or Fog in Northeast Asia From Aerosol Robotic Network and Satellite Remote Sensing

Analysis of Sun photometer measured and satellite retrieved aerosol optical depth (AOD) datahas shown that major aerosol pollution events with very highfine mode AOD (>1.0 in midvisible) in theChina/Korea/Japan region are often observed to be associated with significant cloud cover. This makesremote sensing of these events difficult even for high temporal resolution Sun photometer measurements.Possible physical mechanisms for these events that have high AOD include a combination of aerosolhumidification, cloud processing, and meteorological covariation with atmospheric stability andconvergence. The new development of Aerosol Robotic Network Version 3 Level 2 AOD with improved cloudscreening algorithms now allow for unprecedented ability to monitor these extremefine mode pollutionevents. Further, the spectral deconvolution algorithm (SDA) applied to Level 1 data (L1; no cloud screening)provides an even more comprehensive assessment offine mode AOD than L2 in current and previous dataversions. Studying the 2012 winter-summer period, comparisons of Aerosol Robotic Network L1 SDA dailyaveragefine mode AOD data showed that Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer satellite remotesensing of AOD often did not retrieve and/or identify some of the highestfine mode AOD events in thisregion. Also, compared to models that include data assimilation of satellite retrieved AOD, the L1 SDAfinemode AOD was significantly higher in magnitude, particularly for the highest AOD events that were oftenassociated with significant cloudiness.

Eck, T. F.↗

Photochemistry and stability of the atmosphere of Mars

An understanding of the composition, structure, transport and photochemical processes of the present atmosphere of Mars is essential for addressing such fundamental questions as the stability, evolution and the origin of the Martian atmosphere. This paper discusses our current knowledge of the photochemistry and stability of the Martian atmosphere, with special emphasis on new models and work in progress.

Atreya, S. K.↗

Validation of the Radiometric Stability of the Atmospheric Infrared Sounder

It has been widely accepted that an infrared sounder in low polar orbit is capable of producing climate quality data, if the spectral brightness temperatures have instrumental trends of less than 10 mK/yr. Achieving measurement stability at this level is not only very demanding of the design of the instrument, it is also pushes the state of art of measuring on orbit what stability is actually achieved. We discuss this using Atmospheric Infrared Sounder (AIRS) L1B data collected between 2002 and 2011. We compare the L1B brightness temperature observed in cloud filtered night tropical ocean spectra (obs) to the brightness temperature calculated based on the known surface emissivity, temperature and water vapor profiles from the ECMWF ReAnalysis (ERA) and the growth rates of CO2, N2O and Ozone. The trend in (obs-calc) is a powerful tool for the evaluation of the stability of the 2378 AIRS channels. We divided the channels into seven classes: All channels which sound in the stratosphere (at pressure levels below 150 hPa), 14 micron CO2 sounding, 4 micron CO2 P-branch sounding, 4 micron CO2 R-branch sounding, water vapor sounding, shortwave surface sounding and longwave surface sounding. The peak in the weighting function at 1050 hPa separates sounding and surface channels. The boundary between shortwave and longwave is 5 microns. Except for the stratosphere sounding channels, the remaining six groups have (obs-calc) trends of less than 20 mK/yr. The longwave surface channels have trends of 2 mK/yr, significantly less than the 8 mK/yr trend seem in the shortwave window channels. Based on the design of the instrument, trends within a group of channels should be the same. While the longwave and shortwave trends are less than the canonical 10 mK/yr, the larger trend in the shortwave channels could be an artifact of using the pre-launch determined calibration coefficients. This is currently under evaluation. The trend in (obs-calc) for the non-surface sounding channels, in particular for stratosphere sounding and upper tropospheric water channels, is dominated by artifacts created in calc, most likely due to changes in the ERA Ozone and water vapor. Based on this argument the best estimate of the trend for the channels within a channel group is given by the surface sensitive channels within the group. Based on this consideration we estimated the trend of all AIRS longwave channels as 2 mK/yr, while the shortwave channels have a trend of 8 mK/yr.

CO2↗

Short-term fluctuations in the eddy heat flux and baroclinic stability of the atmosphere

National Meteorological Center data from midlatitudes for three Januaries is used in calculating time series of the zonal mean meridional eddy heat flux and the zonal mean baroclinic stability, as measured by the difference between the zonal wind shear and the critical value of the shear in two-level models. Time-lagged correlations between the two series reveal a highly significant negative correlation for short time lags, peaking at approximately -0.4 when the stability parameter lags one half day behind the eddy flux. They also reveal that strongly unstable conditions are not followed by significant increases in the eddy flux. These results are seen as indicating that the synoptic variations of the zonal mean eddy flux are not closely related to the degree of baroclinic instability of the zonal mean flow. The autocorrelation of the eddy flux is then compared with those expected for autoregressive processes. A Bayesian information criterion suggests that the behavior is represented best by a damped oscillation, with a damping time of 0.8 day and a period of five days.

Stone, P. H.↗

Stability of Atmospheric-Pressure Plasma Induced Changes on Polycarbonate Surfaces

Polycarbonate films are subjected to plasma treatment in a number of applications such as improving adhesion between polycarbonate and silicon alloy in protective and optical coatings. The changes in surface chemistry due to plasma treatment have tendency to revert back. Thus stability of the plasma induced changes on polymer surfaces over desired time period is very important. The objective of this study was to examine the effect of ageing on atmospheric pressure helium-plasma treated polycarbonate (PC) sample as a function of treatment time. The ageing effects were studied over a period of 10 days. The samples were plasma treated for 0.5, 2, 5 and 10 minutes. Contact angle measurements were made to study surface energy changes. Modification of surface chemical structure was examined using, X-ray Photoelectron Spectroscopy (XPS). Contact angle measurements on untreated and plasma treated surfaces were made immediately, 24, 48, 72 and 96 hrs after treatment. Contact angle decreased from 93 deg for untreated sample to 30 deg for sample plasma treated for 10 minutes. After 10 days the contact angles for the 10 minute plasma treated sample increased to 67 deg, but it never reverted back to that of untreated surface. Similarly the O/C ratio increased from 0.136 for untreated sample to 0.321 for 10 minute plasma treated sample indication increase in surface energy.

Sharma, Rajesh↗

A Qualitative Systematic Review Evaluating the Impact of Elevated Ambient Co2 in Atmosphere on Pharmaceutical Stability

Pharmaceuticals are an essential component of the medical system for crewed missions. Current research has identified decreased stability in space-flown pharmaceuticals compared to ground controls, and this presents a significant risk for future exploration-class missions where resupply will be limited. While the cause is not known, the elevated ambient carbon dioxide (CO2) in the spacecraft atmosphere has been postulated as a potential cause.

A Yuen↗

Studies of vorticity imbalance and stability, moisture budget, atmospheric energetics, and gradients of meteorological parameters during AVE 3

Four diagnostic studies of AVE 3. are presented. AVE 3 represents a high wind speed wintertime situation, while most AVE's analyzed previously represented springtime conditions with rather low wind speeds. The general areas of analysis include the examination of budgets of vorticity, moisture, kinetic energy, and potential energy and a synoptic and statistical study of the horizontal gradients of meteorological parameters. Conclusions are integrated with and compared to those obtained in previously analyzed experiments (mostly springtime weather situations) so as to establish a more definitive understanding of the structure and dynamics of the atmosphere under a wide range of synoptic conditions.

Scoggins, J. R.↗

Magnetohydrodynamic thermal instabilities in cool inhomogeneous atmospheres

The stability of magnetic loops to current-driven filamentation instabilities is investigated. The unperturbed atmosphere is assumed to be composed of an (upper) isothermal optically thin low-density portion and a (lower) higher-density portion which is in radiative equilibrium; in both cases, the atmosphere is in hydrostatic equilibrium, so that gravitational stratification is taken into account. In order to provide specific equilibrium conditions for evaluation of the dispersion relation, conditions appropriate for the surface of a solar-type star are adopted; i.e., a fairly low temperature (T = 5000 K) appropriate for a 'precoronal' state associated, for example, with magnetic flux emerging from photospheric levels under the action of magnetic buoyancy. A linear stability analysis is performed, and numerical results show that physically plausible current densities, which would be generated by typical loop-footpoint motions, are effective in driving MHD instabilities in such a plasma. The instability growth rates are strongly dependent on the assumed current density distribution and on the density scale height.

Bodo, G.↗

Stability of the Martian atmosphere: Is heterogeneous catalysis essential?

A comprehensive homogeneous gas phase photochemical model is developed to study the problem of stability of the Martian atmosphere. The one-dimensional model extends from the ground up to 220 km, passing through the homopause at 125 km. The model thus couples the lower (neutral) atmosphere to the ionosphere above which provides significant downward flux of carbon monoxide and oxygen atoms. It is concluded on the basic of currently accepted values for globally and seasonally averaged water vapor abundance, dust opacity and the middle atmospheric eddy mixing coefficient, as well as the relevant laboratory data (particularly the temperature dependence of CO2 absorption cross section and the rate constant for CO+OH reaction), that the rate of re-formation of carbon dioxide exceeds its photolytic destruction rate by about 40%. Furthermore, it is found that this result is virtually independent of the choice of eddy mixing coefficient, unless its value in the middle atmosphere exceeds 10(exp 8) sq cm/sec or is far smaller than 10(exp 5)sq cm/sec, or the dust opacity, unless it exceeds unity, or the water vapor mixing ratio at the surface, unless it is far smaller (less than or = 1 ppm) or far greater (greater than or = 500 ppm) than the average value (approximately 150 ppm). Since none of these extremes represent globally and seasonally averaged conditions on Mars, we propose that the present model requires existence of a mechanism to throttle down the recycling rate of carbon dioxide on Mars. Therefore, it is suggested that a heterogeneous process which provides a sink to the species that participate in the recycling of CO2, i.e., H2O, H2O2, OH, CO or O, in particular, may be necessary to bring about the balance between the CO2 recycling rate and its photolytic destruction rate. Aerosols of dust or ice (pure or doped water or carbon dioxide ice present in the atmosphere of Mars) can provide the appropriate adsorption sites for the above heterogeneous process. Despite our conclusion that some heterogeneous process may be needed, it is important to recognize that one-dimensional models can only provide first-order results which, most likely, represent globally and seasonally averaged conditions. However, it is only after actual temporal, latitudinal and longitudinal variations of relevant atmospheric parameters are included in the model that one can determine fuly whether the problem of atmospheric stabiltiy still continues to persist and whether some heterogeneous process is required to correct it.

Atreya, Sushil K.↗

Dynamic upper atmospheric force model on stabilized vehicles for a high-precision trajectory computer program

The upper atmosphere model draws heavily on the behavior of the earth's upper atmosphere which exhibits cyclic as well as irregular variations in density profile, temperature, pressure, and composition in unison with solar activities as deduced from the more recent land-based and satellite observations. The lift and drag model is designed specifically for inertially stabilized vehicles of the Mariner class, with possible extension to gravity gradient stabilized vehicles of the GEOS class. The model considers operation in the free molecular flow regimes with large Knudsen numbers. The vehicle is considered a composite structure with basic components having well-defined shapes, each with its own surface characteristics in terms of temperature, reflectivity, and accommodation of free stream molecules. The model takes into account both the calculation of precise aerodynamic force coefficients in terms of expansion of modified Bessel functions in speed ratios and angle of attack, and approximate force coefficients when the speed ratios approach infinity. Other considerations include specular and diffused reflectivity, shielding, and shadow effects.

Khatib, A. R.↗

The influence of atmospheric stratification on scatterometer data

The effects of atmospheric stratification and the stability of the atmospheric stratification on the scatterometer data measuring surface winds over the ocean were investigated using the boundary layer model developed by Louis (1979). A variational analysis method is proposed, which allows direct assimilation of scatterometer data. It is shown that the effect of the stability of atmospheric stratification on the wind increment is relatively small. However, it is a systematic effect, and neglecting it would consistently underestimate the winds in stable regions.

Louis, Jean-Francois↗