Cost-Effective Opportunities to Produce Sustainable Aviation Fuel from Low-Cost Wastes in the U.S
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In the United States (US), the off-road sector (i.e., agriculture, construction, etc.) contributes to approximately 10% of the country’s transportation greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, similar to the aviation sector. The off-road sector is extremely diverse; as the EPA MOVES model classifies it into 11 sub-sectors, which include 85 different types of equipment. These equipment types have horsepower ranging from 1 to greater than 3000 and have very different utilization, which makes decarbonization a complex endeavor. To address this, Argonne’s on-road vehicle fleet model, VISION, has been expanded to the off-road sector. The GHG emission factors for several energy carriers (biofuels, electricity, and hydrogen) have been incorporated from Argonne’s GREET model for a sector-wide well-to-wheel (WTW) GHG emissions analysis of the present and future fleet. Several technology adoption and energy decarbonization scenarios were modeled to better understand the appropriate actions required to drive towards net-zero emissions of the off-road sector. Results show that WTW decarbonization up to 67% can be achieved from 2023 to 2050 in a business-as-usual scenario. But with aggressive sales increases of electric and hydrogen powertrains, WTW decarbonization up to 77% can be achieved, which can further increase to 85% if electricity production is aggressively decarbonized by 2035.
The cement industry accounts for an estimated 8% of global CO2 emissions, which surpasses that of the entire aviation sector. In contrast with other industries, where CO2 emissions can be drastically reduced via electrification or fuels substitution, cement production releases CO2 as part of its process, during the calcination of carbonates to yield oxides. Thus, point-source carbon capture has become a key technology in the cement industry’s decarbonization. Apart from the expected environmental benefits, point-source carbon capture in the cement industry can yield important economic benefits and create jobs. The objective of this study was to perform a preliminary assessment of the economic and workforce impacts associated with the construction and operation of a point-source carbon capture retrofit of an existing cement production facility, using as a basis the data from a front-end engineering design (FEED) study to install a 3.9 million metric tons per year (Mtpy) CO2 capture facility at Holcim Ste Genevieve cement plant in Missouri, United States of America. The advanced carbon capture technology used in this FEED study was Air Liquide’s Cryocap™ FG carbon capture technology. The study evaluated the direct, indirect, and induced economic impacts of the construction, operation, and maintenance activities of the project over its lifespan. It also covered how the project will generate new jobs, their nature, and quantity, along with strategies to prepare the workforce. To perform this study, construction, operation, and maintenance cost estimates, as well as construction and operation staffing plans from the FEED study were input into IMPLAN version 7.5 software, licensed by IMPLAN Group LLC (Huntersville, VC), to predict the direct, indirect and induced economic impacts of the project using industry multipliers from the software. Additionally, recruitment strategies were developed for hiring individuals who belong to groups that are historically underserved or underrepresented, as well as anticipated recruitment of workers from the local community (whether training will be required or if the skills are associated with an existing labor force). The analysis estimated that the construction and operation of the carbon capture at Holcim Ste. Genevive will result in over 24 thousand work-years of job opportunities, close to USD 10 billion of economic impacts, including over USD 460 million of tax revenue. These results encompass the direct, indirect, and induced effects. A strategy to maximize hiring from the project and neighboring counties was developed, leveraging training agreements with local trade groups and universities. The result of this study can be used for a strategic preliminary assessment of the potential regional economic and job impacts of retrofitting existing cement plants with point source carbon systems, and its methodology can be replicated to individual projects to aid in planning and workforce development.
Efforts towards decarbonizing construction materials and industrial processes related to cement and concrete can be aided via multifaceted approaches that target alternative admixtures as well as precision control of fabrication. Chemical admixtures for water reduction have played a crucial role in the development of advanced mortar and concrete mixtures. Newer biomass processing techniques developed for aviation fuel production from corn stover biomass produce a highly reactive lignin byproduct that is suitable for chemical modifications to mimic the properties of commonly used polycarboxylate ethers (PCEs) with a smaller carbon footprint. These lignin-based plasticizers developed at NREL can be used in place of petrochemical-derived superplasticizers to tailor the rheological properties of cement-based systems for applications such as additive manufacturing while reducing the carbon intensity of the concrete mix. Lignosulfonates derived from paper pulping were historically used as water reducers only to be displaced with the rise of PCEs. The present study examines the use of a NREL produced lignin-based water reducing admixture (WRA), in cement pastes and mortar mixtures for 3D-printing at small- (mm) scale. The experimental program consisted of different formulations of oxidized lignin-based WRAs added in variable dosages to cement pastes with a fixed water-to-cement ratio. The objective is to achieve an appropriate workability, extrudability and buildability of mortar mixtures to produce 3D-printed specimens. The rheological characterization was performed to compare the initial yield stress and viscosity of the different mixtures with lignin-based admixture with respect to conventional PCE superplasticizers. The rheological characterization shows that the proposed material act as an effective water-reducer in cement systems, affecting the yield stress, plastic viscosity, and structuration rate of the mixtures evaluated. On the other hand, the effect on early hydration process of the cement pastes containing lignin-based admixtures is comparable to conventional superplasticizers.
The threat of global warming, driven by rising carbon emissions, highlights the need to decarbonize our economy. This requires innovative solutions for managing carbon waste and its effective utilization. One promising method for CO2 capture and sequestration is the electrochemical reduction of CO2 to formic acid, a soluble C1 molecule that can be used to store carbon and energy, and as a feedstock for biological conversion. Cupriavidus necator H16, a soil bacterium capable of consuming and growing on formic acid as its sole carbon and energy source, is well positioned to upgrade CO2-derived formic acid into platform chemicals and fuel precursors. To improve the performance of C. necator on formic acid, adaptive laboratory evolution (ALE), a proven tool for improving microbial fitness, has been conducted using continuous pH-stat bioreactors. The system works on the basis that consumption of formic acid raises the pH and triggers the addition of more formic acid to maintain the pH (in this case 6.7), such that formic acid is provided at the same rate as it is consumed. This system has been coupled with level control to achieve continuous fermentation where cells acquiring mutations that improve growth on formic acid become more abundant in the population, from which they can be isolated and characterized. During developmental experiments it was discovered that formic acid accumulated to inhibitory levels. It was determined that the nitrogen source, ammonium hydroxide, must be tailored to the carbon consumption to avoid formic acid accumulation. The ALE ran in three lineages for approximately 3000 hours and more than 500 generations. Evolved isolates obtained from each lineage demonstrated an increase in growth rate in conjunction with improve formate utilization compared to the parental strain when evaluated in pH-stat bioreactors. The isolates with improved performance were then subjected to whole genome sequencing to identify potentially causative mutations. Mutations in several key genes across different lineages have been found and will be evaluated individually and in combination to identify those that improve growth on formic acid. Incorporating these mutations into production strains has the potential to greatly improve formic acid conversion and further industrial decarbonization.
Abstract The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Special Report on Global Warming of 1.5°C points to the need for carbon neutrality by mid‐century. Achieving this in the United States in only 30 years will be challenging, and practical pathways detailing the technologies, infrastructure, costs, and tradeoffs involved are needed. Modeling the entire U.S. energy and industrial system with new analysis tools that capture synergies not represented in sector‐specific or integrated assessment models, we created multiple pathways to net zero and net negative CO 2 emissions by 2050. They met all forecast U.S. energy needs at a net cost of 0.2–1.2% of GDP in 2050, using only commercial or near‐commercial technologies, and requiring no early retirement of existing infrastructure. Pathways with constraints on consumer behavior, land use, biomass use, and technology choices (e.g., no nuclear) met the target but at higher cost. All pathways employed four basic strategies: energy efficiency, decarbonized electricity, electrification, and carbon capture. Least‐cost pathways were based on >80% wind and solar electricity plus thermal generation for reliability. A 100% renewable primary energy system was feasible but had higher cost and land use. We found multiple feasible options for supplying low‐carbon fuels for non‐electrifiable end uses in industry, freight, and aviation, which were not required in bulk until after 2035. In the next decade, the actions required in all pathways were similar: expand renewable capacity 3.5 fold, retire coal, maintain existing gas generating capacity, and increase electric vehicle and heat pump sales to >50% of market share. This study provides a playbook for carbon neutrality policy with concrete near‐term priorities.
This project successfully developed and demonstrated the synergistic thermo-microbial-electrochemical (T-MEC) process, converting food waste into sustainable biofuels while achieving self-sustaining wastewater treatment and hydrogen production. By integrating hydrothermal liquefaction (HTL) and microbial electrolysis cells (MECs), the project advanced waste-to-fuel technology and expanded the understanding of sustainable waste valorization. It established a scalable framework for achieving high carbon efficiency, effective pollutant removal, and energy recovery, showcasing the potential of combining biological, thermal, and electrochemical systems to optimize resource recovery and reduce environmental impacts. The project demonstrated the technical effectiveness of the T-MEC process, achieving over 50% improvement in carbon efficiency and reducing waste processing costs by more than 25% compared to anaerobic digestion (AD). The HTL pilot reactor processed food waste at 90 kg/h, producing up to 200 L/day of biocrude oil with high conversion efficiency. A critical desalting step in pretreatment prevented catalyst fouling, enabling efficient hydrotreating with 100% deoxygenation and denitrogenation and sulfur reduction to <15 ppm. This positioned the kerosene fraction as a strong candidate for sustainable aviation fuel (SAF). The MECs achieved rapid startup, 86.4% COD removal, and hydrogen production rates of 1.8 L H 2 /L cat /day, among the highest recorded for pilot-scale systems. The integrated process achieved 65% carbon efficiency to biocrude and 58% to finished fuels, outperforming AD's 41% and 33% efficiencies for biogas and natural gas vehicle fuels. System analysis highlighted economic potential, with minimum fuel selling prices (MFSP) decreasing from $\$$25/GGE at 5 tpd to $\$$10/GGE at 500 tpd due to economies of scale. Future work will focus on reducing MEC material and membrane costs, enhancing performance through higher current densities, and creating tailored operational strategies for diverse feedstocks. Optimization of the integrated system will improve scalability and feasibility, positioning the T-MEC process as a competitive solution for converting wet waste into sustainable fuels and clean water. Beyond its technical and economic achievements, the project offers significant public benefits. The T-MEC process provides a sustainable alternative to landfilling and incineration, reducing greenhouse gas emissions and conserving resources. Converting waste into SAF and renewable fuels supports decarbonization in the transportation sector, advancing energy independence and reducing reliance on fossil fuels. Additionally, the process minimizes environmental pollutants, transforming them into valuable products like hydrogen and fuels, contributing to a cleaner and more sustainable future.
Biofuels, including sustainable aviation and marine fuels, and biomass carbon removal and storage (BiCRS) are often viewed as potentially competing pathways for advancing climate and energy goals. Their comparative economic, environmental, and temporal advantages remain debated. Rather than identifying a “best-use” for biomass, we show that the relative economic advantages of BiCRS versus biofuels exist along a continuum shaped by energy- and decarbonization-focused market conditions. These pathways need not be adversarial: BiCRS can enable, rather than displace, future biofuel deployment. While the lignocellulosic biofuel sector continues to face barriers associated with underdeveloped supply chains and technologies that have not yet been commercialized at scale, emerging BiCRS approaches are comparatively feedstock-flexible, rapidly deployable, and responsive to carbon removal markets. Early BiCRS deployment can help establish reliable biomass supply chains, reducing investment risk for future lignocellulosic biorefineries. By easing initial supply chain constraints, BiCRS can serve as a practical stepping stone toward meeting both near-term carbon removal needs and long-term sustainable fuel objectives under uncertain future market and policy conditions.
The long-term strategy of the United States targets reaching economy-wide net-zero emissions by 2050 and a carbon-neutral electricity grid by 2035 (U.S. Department of State and U.S. Executive Office of the President, 2021). Meeting these targets would require considerable changes to the energy system. Some key characteristics of illustrative net-zero energy systems include increased penetration of renewable energy and carbon sources, use of CO2 capture and storage (CCS) in hard-to-abate sectors, and a greater role for energy carriers such as electricity and hydrogen (Davis et al, 2018). Another common feature of such energy systems is the need for carbon dioxide removal (CDR) approaches (Horowitz et al, 2022). Across all these characteristics of net-zero energy systems, bioenergy and biomass feedstock is anticipated to play an important role. Biomass feedstock serves as a renewable carbon source. This can enable conversion of such feedstock into fuels and energy carriers for hard-to-abate sectors such as aviation. Indeed, the U.S. Government has a target to meet all jet fuel demand by 2050 from sustainable aviation fuel (SAF), where biofuel pathways are likely to have an important role (EERE, 2020). Bioenergy is also highly versatile with the possibility to convert feedstock into electricity, hydrogen, liquid fuels, heat or high-value products, based on biomass type, demand and technology availability (Clarke et al, 2022). Combination of bioenergy with CCS can also nominally deliver CDR (Fuhrman et al, 2023). As such, the share of bioenergy is expected to grow by at least five time across scenarios studied for the long-term strategy of the U.S. between 2020 and 2050 (Horowitz et al, 2022). Notwithstanding the role of bioenergy in the energy systems, its deployment, costs and scalability are influenced by a number of factors. Some of these factors pertain to policy interventions such as imposition of a binding decarbonization target either at an economy-wide level or the sectoral level. Resource availability and type of biomass feedstock also varies considerably across regions. From a technological perspective, the readiness of bioenergy conversion pathways is subject to high variability. This influences the costs of deployment. Moreover, the sourcing of feedstock, grid carbon intensity, and co-product handling approaches all affect the life cycle efficacy of bioenergy. The latter, in turn, is particularly important in determining the extent to which bioenergy with CCS or BECCS can effectively deliver CDR (Fajardy and Mac Dowell, 2017).
The need to decarbonize our economy is becoming ever more pressing. CO2, can be electrochemically reduced to formic acid, a soluble C1 molecule that can be used to store carbon and energy. Cupriavidus necator H16, a soil bacterium, capable of consuming and growing on formic acid as its sole carbon source, is well positioned to upgrade CO2-derived formic acid into value added chemicals such as sustainable aviation fuel. To improve the performance of C. necator on formic acid adaptive laboratory evolution (ALE), a proven tool for improving microbial fitness, has been conducted using continuous pH-stat bioreactors. The system works on the basis that consumption of formic acid raises the pH and triggers the addition of more formic acid to maintain the pH at 6.7, such that formic acid is provided at the same rate as it is consumed. This system has been coupled with level control to achieve continuous fermentation where cells acquiring mutations that improve growth on formic acid become more abundant in the population, from which they can be isolate and characterized. This configuration where the dilution rate is controlled by pH-stat has been found to seek out a dilution rate that matches the exponential growth rate of the organism. During developmental experiments it was discovered that formic acid accumulated to inhibitory levels. It was determined that the nitrogen source, ammonium hydroxide, must be tailored to the carbon consumption to avoid formic acid accumulation. ALE has run in three lineages for 2000+ hours and 300+ generations. Growth of evolved isolates derived from all lineages will be evaluated on formic acid and those with improved growth rates or biomass yield will be subjected to whole genome sequencing to identify potentially causative mutations. These mutations will be evaluated individually and in combination to identify those that improve growth on formic acid.
This study evaluated the effectiveness of technology-push and market-pull policies in encouraging the production and use of biofuels in 15 countries including major biofuels producers. Biofuels production and consumption data for the 12-year period of 2006-2017 showed that in most of the surveyed countries, biofuels policies played an important role in developing and growing regional and national biofuels markets. Blending mandates continue to be the main market-pull policy used to create and expand biofuels markets. Countries with a mixture of market-pull and technology-push policy instruments have been most successful at increasing biofuels production and use and also developing and deploying less mature advanced biofuels. Most policies have primarily promoted the production and use of biofuels for road transport with key long-distance transport sectors (aviation and shipping) drawing less policy attention despite being significant fuel consumers and carbon emitters. While many older policies were originally developed to promote energy security, more recent policies, such as low carbon fuel standard, have reduction in the carbon intensity of transportation fuels as a primary goal. While policies have been essential in promoting the on-going growth of biofuels, they have not been sufficient to drive the level of development needed to decarbonize the transport sector.
This study presents a novel bioeconomy optimization framework, BiOpt, designed to address critical questions regarding the strategic use of limited US biomass resources for biofuel production. By integrating detailed techno-economic analyses, life cycle assessments, and resource assessment data, BiOpt optimizes resource distributions across competing technologies to maximize economic performance and/or minimize greenhouse gas emissions. Using feedstock scenarios from the 2023 Billion Ton Study, the analysis explores optimal biomass allocations across sustainable aviation fuel, diesel, and marine biofuel conversion pathways given varying production targets and policy incentives. Results demonstrate distinct feedstock preferences and pathway utilizations when prioritizing economic returns vs. emissions reductions. For instance, fats, oils, and greases were highly favored in cost-optimized scenarios, while low-carbon feedstocks such as wet waste dominated greenhouse gas-minimized strategies. The findings underscore the pivotal role of policy incentives and technological advances in shaping biofuel supply chains and provide actionable insights for scaling sustainable biofuel production to decarbonize hard-to-electrify sectors. This framework offers a robust tool for policymakers and stakeholders to evaluate biofuel strategies that balance energy output, economic viability, and environmental impact.
Heterogeneous catalysts are a key enabler of the transition towards a sustainable, bio-based economy for fuels and chemicals. However, the harsh conditions in many biomass conversion processes lead to nanoparticle sintering, support collapse, and metal leaching in conventional PGM catalysts. Next-generation catalysts must be developed to address these stability challenges. This presentation will discuss ongoing work between the Catalytic Carbon Transformation & Scale-Up Center at NREL and various industrial partners to develop scalable, cost-effective atomic layer deposition (ALD) coatings for improving the performance of biomass conversion catalysts. Substantial focus will be devoted to the benefits of TiO2 ALD coatings on supported Pd hydrogenation catalysts. Ten cycles of TiO2 ALD were found to dramatically improve the activity of a conventional Pd/Al2O3 catalyst towards aromatic hydrogenation, despite partial coverage of the Pd sites by the ALD layer. Subsequent advanced characterization and atomic-scale computational modeling revealed that the ALD coating influenced the adsorption strength of hydrogenation surface intermediates in unexpected ways, leading to higher reaction rates. Reaction testing after exposure to sulfur impurities, high temperature oxidation, and hydrothermal treatment demonstrated the improved stability of the ALD-coated catalyst. Additionally, the ALD synthesis process was found to be scalable over two orders of magnitude with minimal deviation in synthesized catalyst properties. These results were contextualized with cost models of industrial ALD coating and aromatic hydrogenation processes to further refine the value proposition of ALD coatings. Given the demonstrated improvements in hydrogenation, TiO2 ALD coatings have also been applied to supported Pt catalysts for use in other biomass conversion reactions, such as hydrodeoxygenation for production of sustainable aviation fuel (SAF) and the oxidation of glucose for bio-derived gluconic acid. Recent findings from these experimental campaigns will also be shared. ALD technology holds great potential in the development of next-generation catalysts for biofuels and bioproducts and this work constitutes an important examination of the impact of ALD coatings in a variety of reaction environments.
The international shipping sector represented 3% of global greenhouse gas emissions in 2023 (Office of Energy Efficiency & Renewable Energy 2024). International shipping has been classified as a difficult-to-decarbonize industry (IRENA 2024). In an effort to drive decarbonization, the U.S. Department of Energy has partnered with Mission Innovation to co-lead the Zero-Emission Shipping Mission, which launched in 2021(Office of Energy Efficiency & Renewable Energy 2021). In addition, the U.S. Department of State partnered with Norway to launch the Green Shipping Challenge in 2022 (Office of the Spokesperson 2022b). As part of the ZESM and Green Shipping Challenge, the United States is collaborating with the Republic of Korea (ROK) to develop a green shipping corridor (U.S. Mission Korea 2023). The United States and ROK have conducted a pre-feasibility study as the first step in developing a green shipping corridor between the countries. The ports included in the study are Seattle, Tacoma, and Everette in the U.S. Pacific Northwest (PNW) and Busan, Ulsan, and Masan in ROK. The National Renewable Energy Laboratory's role in the study was to analyze the availability and technical potential of alternative marine fuels in proximity to U.S. PNW ports. The findings show most of the existing alternative fuel capacity within the region is from renewable diesel, biodiesel, and sustainable aviation fuel facilities. The largest growth in fuel capacity in the region by 2030 is projected to be in renewable diesel and hydrogen. The overall technical readiness of non-drop-in alternative fuel production and conversion technologies is more developed than alternative-fueled ships and associated fueling infrastructure. However, much of the fuel capacity in the region is comprised of drop-in fuels, making it technically possible to use existing infrastructure for transporting and bunkering to the existing fleet. Data to inform regional alternative fuel quantity estimations were collected from an extensive review of databases, reports, announcements, and other publicly available resources. A maturity index and sector competition factor were applied to announced fuel projects to determine the quantity of alternative fuel available to the marine sector in the region by 2030. Demand data were collected from fuel bunkering logs covering the PNW seaports (State of Washington 2021). Both supply and demand data were converted to very-low sulfur fuel oil gallon equivalents (VLSFO-GE) for better comparison. Qualitative data were gathered through interviews with stakeholders, project developers, and industry experts. Total alternative fuel capacity available to the marine sector in the region is estimated to be 824 million VLSFO-GE per year by 2030. This is sufficient to cover the requirements of a green shipping corridor between the United States and ROK. The findings from this report are being used to inform detailed feasibility studies for several U.S. PNW -ROK green shipping corridors. Updates from the U.S. PNW - ROK feasibility studies will continue to be published on Mission Innovation's green corridor tracking website (Zero Emission Shipping Mission, n.d.). In addition, this report has helped to inform further work on shipping decarbonization in the U.S. PNW, including the Pacific Northwest to Alaska Green Corridor focused on cruise vessels.
This report was compiled to provide recommendations on the availability of public background data from the U.S. Federal life cycle assessment (LCA) Data Commons to be conformant with the Association for Life Cycle Assessment (ACLCA) 2022 Product Category Rule (PCR) Open Standard to build technical tools that can assist industry in creating more comparable Type II Environmental Product Declarations (EPDs) for Federal Buy Clean and sustainability initiatives. The Federal LCA Commons is not only a public data source but also a consistently structured, self-referencing mega-repository for data developed by federal agency experts (in agency repositories) and by academia, nonprofit organizations, and industry (via the US Life Cycle Inventory Database). The Federal LCA Commons Technical Working Group is continuously improving the standardization of data documentation, formatting, and nomenclature to ensure lossless data loading and accurate data representation. This report and appendixes include the following: 1) An introduction to data-driven Buy Clean and decarbonization initiatives at the federal level; 2) The current status and associated challenges with LCA data and EPD standards and comparability; 3) Opportunities for the Federal LCA Commons to support conformance with the ACLCA 2022 PCR Open Standard and provide resources to implement the Federal Sustainability Plan, Buy Clean Program, and Inflation Reduction Act (IRA) sustainability goals and objectives. To date, the Federal LCA Commons is the result of coordinated work by National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), the U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA), the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), the National Energy Technology Laboratory (NETL), the Argonne National Laboratory (ANL), the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers (USACE), the Federal Highway Administration (FHWA), the U.S. Forest Service (USFS), the Federal Aviation Administration (FAA), the Department of Defense (DoD) and the National Institute of Standards and Technologies (NIST). The Federal LCA Commons will continue to combine databases from the collaborating agencies while remaining a public resource. There are several initiatives among the collaborating agencies to expand the Federal LCA Commons and dedicated federal funding and resources could accelerate and strengthen these initiatives.
Microbial bioproduction using one-carbon (C1) feedstocks has the potential to decarbonize the manufacturing of materials, fuels, and chemicals. Formate is a promising C1 feedstock, and the realization of industrial, formatotrophic platform organisms is a key goal for C1-based bioproduction. So far, a major limitation for synthetic formatotrophy has been slow energy supply due to slow formate dehydrogenase activity. Here, we implement a fast, metal-dependent formate dehydrogenase complex in a synthetic formatotrophic Escherichia coli utilizing the reductive glycine pathway. After a short-term evolution, we demonstrate formatotrophic growth of E. coli with a doubling time of less than 4.5 h, comparable to the fastest natural formatotrophs. To further explore the potential of a formate-based bioeconomy, this strain is engineered to produce mevalonate, as well as the terpenoid and aviation fuel precursor isoprenol, using formate we generate directly from the electrochemical reduction of CO2. This work demonstrates an improvement in bioproduct titer from formate, achieving the production of 3.8 g/L of mevalonate. Additionally, the abundant and recalcitrant polymer lignin is chemically decomposed into a formate-rich mixture of small organic acids and subsequently bioconverted into mevalonate. Overall, the described fast-growing, formatotrophic bioproduction strain demonstrates that a sustainable formate bioeconomy is within reach.
Recent decarbonization goals and market pressures (nationally and internationally) have led airlines to commit to aggressive strategies to reduce carbon emissions in their fleet. To better understand possible regional evolution scenarios for SAF supply train, we have developed the Regional Biomass Energy Model (RBEM). RBEM is a dynamic model that can be used to create potential development scenarios for bioenergy fuels within a defined region. In this report, we describe the model and present illustrative results using the Chicago O'Hare Airport as an example.
Achieving aerospace industry net-zero emissions by 2050 requires rapid scaling of sustainable aviation fuel (SAF) production. Leveraging existing infrastructure, proven technologies like Alcohol-to-Jet (ATJ), and low carbon intensity (CI) feedstocks (e.g., switchgrass and miscanthus) can support this transition and help achieve near-term emissions reduction targets. This study evaluates the implications of lignocellulosic ethanol biorefinery siting and integration with petroleum refineries to produce SAF across 1000 sites randomly sampled from areas suitable for perennial grasses in the U.S. rainfed region. To better understand the logistics of material transport and handoffs, we integrated models of biomass harvest, transport, ethanol, and ATJ production in a stochastic framework based on Monte Carlo simulations to characterize SAF minimum selling price (MSP) and carbon intensity (CI), considering site-specific parameters (e.g., feedstock production, transportation, taxes, incentives). The results indicate trade-offs between MSP and CI across locations, with median MSP ranging from 7.9 to 12.8 USD·gal −1 and CI from −9.7 to 39.4 gCO 2 e·MJ −1 . Despite high estimated decarbonization costs (580 USD·tonCO 2 e −1 ), our results indicate that site-specific deployment of ATJ with low-CI feedstocks can improve sustainability outcomes. The framework provides a systematic approach to assess cost and sustainability trade-offs across locations, considering the end-to-end supply chain and supporting an informed investment in SAF production.