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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 91 records · Page 5
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2020

Role of Equatorial Cold Tongue in Central Pacific Double-ITCZ Bias in the NCAR CESM1.2

Warm SST bias underlying the spurious southern ITCZ has long been recognized as one of the main causes for double-ITCZ bias in coupled GCMs in the central Pacific. This study demonstrates that the NCAR CESM1.2 can still simulate significant double-ITCZ bias even with cold SST bias in the southern ITCZ region, indicating that warm SST bias is not a necessary condition for double-ITCZ bias in the central Pacific. Further analyses suggest that the equatorial cold tongue (ECT) biases play important roles in the formation of double-ITCZ bias in the central Pacific. The severe cold SST biases in the ECT region in the central Pacific may enhance the SST gradient between the ECT and southern ITCZ region, strengthening the lower troposphere dynamical convergence and hence convection in the southern ITCZ region. The formation mechanism of excessive ECT bias is further investigated. It is shown that the cold SST biases in the ECT region can be largely attributed to the anomalous cooling tendency produced by the upper ocean zonal advection due to overly strong zonal currents. In the ECT region, the westward ocean surface zonal current is driven by the equatorial easterly surface winds. In this work, it is shown that convection bias simulated by the atmospheric model in the equatorial Amazon region may lead to easterly wind bias in the downwind side (west) of convection region. Finally, the mean Walker circulation transports these easterly wind momentum anomalies downward and westward to the surface, resulting in the overly strong surface easterly wind in the central equatorial Pacific.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

Exploring Sources of Surface Bias in HRRR Using New York State Mesonet

In recent years, there has been increasing demand for applications of short-term forecasting of renewable energy potential and assessments of the likelihood of extreme weather events using the High-Resolution Rapid Refresh (HRRR) model. Examining the biases in the newest version of HRRR is necessary to promote further model development. Using data from one of the most comprehensive and dense monitoring networks, New York State Mesonet (NYSM), we evaluate the HRRR version 3 meteorological fields for an entire year. In this work, the land-atmosphere-cloud coupling system is evaluated as an integrated whole. We investigate the physical processes influencing the soil hydrological balance and the thermodynamic interactions, from surface fluxes up to the level of boundary layer convection from both temporal (seasonal and diurnal) and spatial perspectives. Results show that the model 2 m temperature and humidity biases are seasonally dependent, with warm and dry bias present during the warm season, and an extreme nocturnal cold bias in winter. The summer warm bias includes both a land-surface-induced bias and a cloud-induced bias. Inaccurate representation of energy partition and soil hydrological process across different land use types as well as a hydrological bias in describing spring snowmelt are identified as the main source of the land-surface-induced bias. A feedback loop linking cloud presence, flux changes, and temperature contributes to the cloud-induced bias. The positive solar radiation bias increases from clear sky to overcast sky conditions. The most significant bias occurs during overcast and thick cloud conditions associated with frontal passage and thunderstorms.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

Biases to primordial non-Gaussianity measurements from CMB secondary anisotropies

ABSTRACT Our view of the last-scattering surface in the cosmic microwave background (CMB) is obscured by secondary anisotropies, sourced by scattering, extragalactic emission, and gravitational processes between recombination and observation. Whilst it is established that non-Gaussianity from the correlation between the integrated-Sachs–Wolfe (ISW) effect and gravitational lensing can significantly bias primordial non-Gaussianity (PNG) searches, recent work by Hill suggests that other combinations of secondary anisotropies can also produce significant biases. Building on that work, we use the WebSky and Sehgal et al. simulations to perform an extensive examination of possible biases to PNG measurements for the local, equilateral and orthogonal shapes. For a Planck-like CMB experiment, without foreground cleaning, we find significant biases from cosmic infrared background (CIB)-lensing and thermal Sunyaev–Zel’dovich (tSZ)-lensing bispectra for the local and orthogonal templates, and from CIB and tSZ bispectra for the equilateral template. For future experiments, such as the Simons Observatory, biases from correlations between the ISW effect and the tSZ and CIB will also become important. Finally, we investigate the effectiveness of foreground-cleaning techniques to suppress these biases. We find that the majority of these biases are effectively suppressed by the internal-linear combination method with a total bias below the $1\, \sigma$ statistical error for both experiments. However, the small total bias arises from the cancellation of several $1\, \sigma$ biases for Planck-like experiments and $2\, \sigma$ biases for SO-like. As this cancellation is likely sensitive to the modelling, to ensure robustness against these biases, we recommend that explicit removal methods should be used.

Astronomy & Astrophysics↗
DOE OSTI2019

Culprit of the Eastern Pacific Double-ITCZ Bias in the NCAR CESM1.2

Abstract The eastern Pacific double-ITCZ bias has long been attributed to the warm bias of SST in the southeastern Pacific and associated local air–sea interaction. In this study, we conducted two simulations using the NCAR CESM1.2.1 to demonstrate that significant double-ITCZ bias can still form in the eastern Pacific through air–sea coupled feedback even when there is cold SST bias in the southeastern Pacific, indicating that other nonlocal culprits and mechanisms should be responsible for the double-ITCZ bias in the eastern Pacific. Further analyses show that the oversimulated convection in the northern ITCZ region and Central America in boreal winter may result in biases in the surface wind fields in the tropical northeastern Pacific in the atmospheric model, which favor the cooling of the ocean mixed layer through enhancement of latent heat flux and Ekman upwelling. These biases are passed into the ocean model in coupled simulations and result in a severe cold bias of SST in the northern ITCZ region. The overly cold SST bias persists in the subsequent spring, leading to the suppression of convection in the northern ITCZ region. The enhanced low-level cross-equatorial northerly wind strengthens the wind convergence south of the equator and transports abundant water vapor to the convergence zone, strengthening the southern ITCZ convection. All these processes lead to the disappearance of the northern ITCZ and the enhancement of the southern ITCZ in boreal spring, forming a seasonally alternating double-ITCZ bias. This study suggests that convection biases in the northern ITCZ region and Central America in boreal winter may be a culprit for the double-ITCZ bias in the eastern Pacific.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
NASA NTRS2011

Effect of Reverse Bias Stress on Leakage Currents and Breakdown Voltages of Solid Tantalum Capacitors

The majority of solid tantalum capacitors are produced by high-temperature sintering of a fine tantalum powder around a tantalum wire followed by electrolytic anodization that forms a thin amorphous Ta2O5 dielectric layer and pyrolysis of manganese nitrite on the oxide to create a conductive manganese dioxide electrode. A contact to tantalum wire is used as anode terminal and to the manganese layer as a cathode terminal of the device. This process results in formation of an asymmetric Ta -- Ta2O5 -- MnO2 capacitor that has different characteristics at forward (positive bias applied to tantalum) and reverse (positive bias applied to manganese cathode) voltages. Reverse bias currents might be several orders of magnitude larger than forward leakage currents so I-V characteristics of tantalum capacitors resemble characteristics of semiconductor rectifiers. Asymmetric I-V characteristics of Ta -- anodic Ta2O5 systems have been observed at different top electrode materials including metals, electrolytes, conductive polymers, and manganese oxide thus indicating that this phenomenon is likely related to the specifics of the Ta -- Ta2O5 interface. There have been multiple attempts to explain rectifying characteristics of capacitors employing anodic tantalum pentoxide dielectrics. A brief review of works related to reverse bias (RB) behavior of tantalum capacitors shows that the mechanism of conduction in Ta -- Ta2O5 systems is still not clear and more testing and analysis is necessary to understand the processes involved. If tantalum capacitors behave just as rectifiers, then the assessment of the safe reverse bias operating conditions would be a relatively simple task. Unfortunately, these parts can degrade with time under reverse bias significantly, and this further complicates analysis of the I-V characteristics and establishing safe operating areas of the parts. On other hand, time dependence of reverse currents might provide additional information for investigation of the processes under reverse bias conditions. In practice, there were instances when, due to unforeseen events, the system operated at conditions when capacitors experience periodically a relatively small reverse bias for some time followed by normal, forward bias conditions. In such a case an assessment should be made on the degree to which these capacitors are degraded by application of low-voltage reverse bias, and whether this degradation can be reversed by normal operating conditions. In this study, reverse currents in different types of tantalum capacitors were monitored at different reverse voltages below 15%VR and temperatures in the range from room to 145 C for up to 150 hours to get better understanding of the degradation process and determine conditions favorable to the unstable mode of operation. The reversibility of RB degradation has been evaluated after operation of the capacitors at forward bias conditions. The effect of reverse bias stress (RBS) on reliability at normal operating conditions was evaluated using highly accelerated life testing at voltages of 1.5VR and 2 VR and by analysis of changes in distributions of breakdown voltages. Possible mechanisms of RB degradation are discussed.

Teverovsky, Alexander A.↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Evaluating Retrieval Algorithm Climate Stability: Estimating 3D Optical Thickness Bias Distributions by Cloud Type

Detecting climate trends on large spatiotemporal scales requires accurate, stable measurements and stable retrieval algorithms. We strive to estimate how time-variant retrieval algorithm biases may impact trend detection. Here we focus on the 3D cloud optical thickness (τc) bias, which is among the largest in passive cloud retrieval algorithms. If this bias is time dependent, a possibility with potential decadal changes in cloud morphology, it may obscure genuine trends in τc. Although previous studies have evaluated the cloud- and sun-view geometry-dependent 3D τc bias on small spatial scales, before our current study none have evaluated the stability of this well-known bias on climate-relevant large spatiotemporal scales. These studies must estimate large scale distributions of the 3D τc bias by cloud type and estimate how cloud type amount may change between two climate states. We employ a novel approach to estimate large scale distributions of 3D τc using a proxy of the bias that quantifies the departure of clouds from satisfying the 1D radiative transfer assumption used in passive τc retrievals. This existing globally-distributed proxy is an angular consistency metric that was developed using fused Moderate-Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) and Multi-angle Imaging Spectroradiometer (MISR) measurements. Calculating the 3D τc bias and the proxy, for known cloud fields enables us to establish statistical relationships between these two quantities, which can be used to calculate large-scale distributions of the 3D τc bias. This approach limits the number of 3D radiative transfer simulations required to only those needed to estimate a statistical relationship between the 3D τc bias for known cloud fields and a proxy of the bias. It is likely that future studies will be needed to evaluate retrieval algorithm bias stability for other geophysical variables as the community develops climate data records from satellite observations and their retrievals. This must be done in addition to monitoring and correcting measurement errors and uncertainties and understanding their impact on retrieved essential climate variables.

Yolanda Shea↗
DOE OSTI2022

Mechanisms behind the Springtime North Pacific ENSO Teleconnection Bias in Climate Models

Previous studies have shown that models overestimate the strength of ENSO teleconnections to the North Pacific during springtime, but the underlying reasons for this bias remain unknown. Here, in this work, the relative contributions from basic-state and thermodynamic/dynamic forcing factors are disentangled through idealized experiments with the Community Earth System Model and a range of stationary wave modeling experiments. It is revealed that in CESM1 the diabatic heating biases over the tropical Indian Ocean and tropical central-western Pacific jointly favor a cyclonic (anticyclonic) circulation bias to occur in the North Pacific during the springtime of El Niño (La Niña) events. On one hand, the difference in the modeled and observed climatological basic state does not lead to the bias formation directly, as the diabatic heating biases are the primary cause. On the other hand, the springtime basic state is conducive to a more vigorous stationary wave response to the biased diabatic heating than the wintertime state, and this explains why the teleconnection bias occurs during springtime but not in winter. An iterative bias-correction approach is then implemented in the atmospheric model component of CESM1 to verify the linkage between the tropical diabatic heating bias and the teleconnection bias. Moreover, this explanation is shown to be relevant in other models of phase 5 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) as a strong relationship is found between biases in ENSO-related tropical central-western Pacific/Indian Ocean precipitation and North Pacific circulation across models in spring.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

Updating and Evaluating Anthropogenic Emissions for NOAA’s Global Ensemble Forecast Systems for Aerosols (GEFS-Aerosols): Application of an SO 2 Bias-Scaling Method

We updated the anthropogenic emissions inventory in NOAA’s operational Global Ensemble Forecast for Aerosols (GEFS-Aerosols) to improve the model’s prediction of aerosol optical depth (AOD). We used a methodology to quickly update the pivotal global anthropogenic sulfur dioxide (SO 2 ) emissions using a speciated AOD bias-scaling method. The AOD bias-scaling method is based on the latest model predictions compared to NASA’s Modern-Era Retrospective analysis for Research and Applications, version 2 (MERRA2). The model bias was subsequently applied to the CEDS 2019 SO 2 emissions for adjustment. The monthly mean GEFS-Aerosols AOD predictions were evaluated against a suite of satellite observations (e.g., MISR, VIIRS, and MODIS), ground-based AERONET observations, and the International Cooperative for Aerosol Prediction (ICAP) ensemble results. The results show that transitioning from CEDS 2014 to CEDS 2019 emissions data led to a significant improvement in the operational GEFS-Aerosols model performance, and applying the bias-scaled SO 2 emissions could further improve global AOD distributions. The biases of the simulated AODs against the observed AODs varied with observation type and seasons by a factor of 3~13 and 2~10, respectively. The global AOD distributions showed that the differences in the simulations against ICAP, MISR, VIIRS, and MODIS were the largest in March–May (MAM) and the smallest in December–February (DJF). When evaluating against the ground-truth AERONET data, the bias-scaling methods improved the global seasonal correlation (r), Index of Agreement (IOA), and mean biases, except for the MAM season, when the negative regional biases were exacerbated compared to the positive regional biases. The effect of bias-scaling had the most beneficial impact on model performance in the regions dominated by anthropogenic emissions, such as East Asia. However, it showed less improvement in other areas impacted by the greater relative transport of natural emissions sources, such as India. The accuracies of the reference observation or assimilation data for the adjusted inputs and the model physics for outputs, and the selection of regions with less seasonal emissions of natural aerosols determine the success of the bias-scaling methods. A companion study on emission scaling of anthropogenic absorbing aerosols needs further improved aerosol prediction.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
NASA NTRS1995

Measurements of electromagnetic bias at Ku and C bands

The electromagnetic (EM) bias epsilon is an error present in radar altimetry of the ocean surface due to nonuniform reflection with surface displacement. The electromagnetic bias is defined as the difference in height between the mean reflecting surface and the mean sea surface. A knowledge of the electromagnetic bias is required for reducing errors in mean sea level measurements by satellite radar altimeters. Direct measurements of the EM bias at 14 GHz (Ku band) and 5 GHz (C band) were made from an oil production platform in the Gulf of Mexico over a 6-month period during 1989 and 1990. A total of 1280 hours of usable data was collected. During the experiment the significant wave height (SWH) varied from 0.6 to 3.2 m; the wind speed at 25 m above the surface varied from 0.1 to 14.3 m/s; the Ku band bias varied from -1.0 to -13.8 cm, or from -1.6% to -5.3% of the SWH; and the C band bias varied from -0.4 to -19.9 cm, or from -0.6% to -6.3% of the SWH. The biases has mean values of -3.7% and -3.6% of SWH with standard deviations of the variability about the mean of 0.7% and 1.0% of the SWH for Ku and C bands, respectively. We found a nonlinear relationship between dimensionless bias (bias/SWH) and wind speed at both low and high wind speeds. For wind speeds less than 3-4 m/s but less than 10 m/s, both biases were found to increase linearly with wind speed. For wind speeds greater than 11-12 m/s, the C band bias reaches a maximum. The Ku band bias reaches a maximum and then begins to decrease for wind speeds greater than 9-10 m/s.

Arnold, D. V.↗
NASA NTRS2014

Estimating Sampling Biases and Measurement Uncertainties of AIRS-AMSU-A Temperature and Water Vapor Observations Using MERRA Reanalysis

We use MERRA (Modern Era Retrospective-Analysis for Research Applications) temperature and water vapor data to estimate the sampling biases of climatologies derived from the AIRS/AMSU-A (Atmospheric Infrared Sounder/Advanced Microwave Sounding Unit-A) suite of instruments. We separate the total sampling bias into temporal and instrumental components. The temporal component is caused by the AIRS/AMSU-A orbit and swath that are not able to sample all of time and space. The instrumental component is caused by scenes that prevent successful retrievals. The temporal sampling biases are generally smaller than the instrumental sampling biases except in regions with large diurnal variations, such as the boundary layer, where the temporal sampling biases of temperature can be +/- 2 K and water vapor can be 10% wet. The instrumental sampling biases are the main contributor to the total sampling biases and are mainly caused by clouds. They are up to 2 K cold and greater than 30% dry over mid-latitude storm tracks and tropical deep convective cloudy regions and up to 20% wet over stratus regions. However, other factors such as surface emissivity and temperature can also influence the instrumental sampling bias over deserts where the biases can be up to 1 K cold and 10% wet. Some instrumental sampling biases can vary seasonally and/or diurnally. We also estimate the combined measurement uncertainties of temperature and water vapor from AIRS/AMSU-A and MERRA by comparing similarly sampled climatologies from both data sets. The measurement differences are often larger than the sampling biases and have longitudinal variations.

MERRA↗
DOE OSTI2016

A new method to measure galaxy bias by combining the density and weak lensing fields

We present a new method to measure redshift-dependent galaxy bias by combining information from the galaxy density field and the weak lensing field. This method is based on the work of Amara et al., who use the galaxy density field to construct a bias-weighted convergence field κg. The main difference between Amara et al.'s work and our new implementation is that here we present another way to measure galaxy bias, using tomography instead of bias parametrizations. The correlation between κg and the true lensing field κ allows us to measure galaxy bias using different zero-lag correlations, such as <κgκ>/<κκ> or <κgκg>/<κgκ>. Our method measures the linear bias factor on linear scales, under the assumption of no stochasticity between galaxies and matter. We use the Marenostrum Institut de Ciències de l'Espai (MICE) simulation to measure the linear galaxy bias for a flux-limited sample (i < 22.5) in tomographic redshift bins using this method. This article is the first that studies the accuracy and systematic uncertainties associated with the implementation of the method and the regime in which it is consistent with the linear galaxy bias defined by projected two-point correlation functions (2PCF). We find that our method is consistent with a linear bias at the per cent level for scales larger than 30 arcmin, while non-linearities appear at smaller scales. This measurement is a good complement to other measurements of bias, since it does not depend strongly on σ8 as do the 2PCF measurements. We will apply this method to the Dark Energy Survey Science Verification data in a follow-up article.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2025

Bias-Variance Trade-Off in Physics-Informed Neural Networks with Randomized Smoothing for High-Dimensional PDEs

Physics-Informed Neural Networks (PINNs) have triggered a paradigm shift in scientific computing, leveraging mesh-free properties and robust approximation capabilities. While proving effective for low-dimensional partial differential equations (PDEs), the computational cost of PINNs remains a hurdle in high-dimensional scenarios. This is particularly pronounced when computing high-order and high-dimensional derivatives in the physics-informed loss. Randomized Smoothing PINN (RS-PINN) introduces Gaussian noise for stochastic smoothing of the original neural net model, enabling the use of Monte Carlo methods for derivative approximation, which eliminates the need for costly automatic differentiation. Despite its computational efficiency, especially in the approximation of high-dimensional derivatives, RS-PINN introduces biases in both loss and gradients, negatively impacting convergence, especially when coupled with stochastic gradient descent (SGD) algorithms. We present a comprehensive analysis of biases in RS-PINN, attributing them to the nonlinearity of the Mean Squared Error (MSE) loss as well as the intrinsic nonlinearity of the PDE itself. We propose tailored bias correction techniques, delineating their application based on the order of PDE nonlinearity. The derivation of an unbiased RS-PINN allows for a detailed examination of its advantages and disadvantages compared to the biased version. Specifically, the biased version has a lower variance and runs faster than the unbiased version, but it is less accurate due to the bias. To optimize the bias-variance trade-off, we combine the two approaches in a hybrid method that balances the rapid convergence of the biased version with the high accuracy of the unbiased version. In addition to methodological contributions, we present an enhanced implementation of RS-PINN. Extensive experiments on diverse high-dimensional PDEs, including Fokker-Planck, Hamilton-Jacobi-Bellman (HJB), viscous Burgers’, Allen-Cahn, and Sine-Gordon equations, illustrate the bias-variance trade-off and highlight the effectiveness of the hybrid RS-PINN. Empirical guidelines are provided for selecting biased, unbiased, or hybrid versions, depending on the dimensionality and nonlinearity of the specific PDE problem.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2022

Analysis of Integrated Vapor Transport Biases

Abstract High-fidelity analyses and forecasts of integrated vapor transport (VT) are central to the study of Earth’s hydrological cycle as well as high-impact phenomena such as monsoons and atmospheric rivers. The impact of the in-line analysis correction-based additive inflation (ACAI) on IVT biases and forecast errors is examined within the Navy Earth System Prediction Capability (Navy ESPC) global coupled system. The ACAI technique uses atmospheric analysis corrections from the data assimilation system to approximate model bias and as a representation of stochastic model error to simultaneously reduce systematic and random errors and improve ensemble performance. ACAI reduces the global average magnitude of the 7- and 14-day IVT bias by 16%–17% during Northern Hemisphere summer, reaching 70% reductions in some tropical regions. The global average IVT bias reduction is similar to the bias reduction for low-level wind speed bias and considerably smaller than the bias reduction in total precipitable water. The localized regions where ACAI increases IVT bias occur where the control IVT biases change sign and structure with increasing forecast lead time, such as the South Asian monsoon region. Substituting analyzed wind or moisture fields for the forecast fields when calculating the forecast IVT confirms that, on average, wind errors dominate the IVT error calculation in the tropics, although wind and moisture error contributions are comparable in the extratropics. The existence of regions where using either analyzed winds or analyzed moisture increases IVT bias or mean absolute error reveals areas with compensating errors.

Reynolds, Carolyn A.↗
DOE OSTI2022

Quantifying albedo susceptibility biases in shallow clouds

The evaluation of radiative forcing associated with aerosol–cloud interactions remains a significant source of uncertainty in future climate projections. The problem is confounded by the fact that aerosol particles influence clouds locally and that averaging to larger spatial and/or temporal scales carries biases that depend on the heterogeneity and spatial correlation of the interacting fields and the nonlinearity of the responses. Mimicking commonly applied satellite data analyses for calculation of albedo susceptibility S o , we quantify S o aggregation biases using an ensemble of 127 large eddy simulations of marine stratocumulus. We explore the cloud field properties that control this spatial aggregation bias and quantify the bias for a large range of shallow stratocumulus cloud conditions manifesting a variety of morphologies and ranges of cloud fractions. We show that S o spatial aggregation biases can be on the order of hundreds of percent, depending on the methodology. Key uncertainties emanate from the typically applied adiabatic drop concentration N d retrieval, the correlation between aerosol and cloud fields, and the extent to which averaging reduces the variance in cloud albedo A c and N d . So biases are more often positive than negative and are highly correlated with biases in the liquid water path adjustment. Temporal aggregation biases are shown to offset spatial aggregation biases. Both spatial and temporal biases have significant implications for observationally based assessments of aerosol indirect effects and our inferences of underlying aerosol–cloud–radiation effects.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
NASA NTRS2013

Simultaneous Estimation of Model State Variables and Observation and Forecast Biases Using a Two-Stage Hybrid Kalman Filter

In this paper, we present a two-stage hybrid Kalman filter to estimate both observation and forecast bias in hydrologic models, in addition to state variables. The biases are estimated using the discrete Kalman filter, and the state variables using the ensemble Kalman filter. A key issue in this multi-component assimilation scheme is the exact partitioning of the difference between observation and forecasts into state, forecast bias and observation bias updates. Here, the error covariances of the forecast bias and the unbiased states are calculated as constant fractions of the biased state error covariance, and the observation bias error covariance is a function of the observation prediction error covariance. In a series of synthetic experiments, focusing on the assimilation of discharge into a rainfall-runoff model, it is shown that both static and dynamic observation and forecast biases can be successfully estimated. The results indicate a strong improvement in the estimation of the state variables and resulting discharge as opposed to the use of a bias-unaware ensemble Kalman filter. Furthermore, minimal code modification in existing data assimilation software is needed to implement the method. The results suggest that a better performance of data assimilation methods should be possible if both forecast and observation biases are taken into account.

Data Assimilation↗
NASA NTRS2021

Seasonal Bias in Global Ocean Color Observations

In this study we identify a seasonal bias in the ocean color satellite derived remote sensing reflectances (Rrs(λ); sr-1) at the ocean color validation site, MOBY (Marine Optical BuoY). The seasonal bias in Rrs(λ) is present to varying degrees in all ocean color satellites examined, including VIIRS (Visible Infrared Imaging Radiometer Suite), SeaWiFS (Sea-viewing Wide Field-of-view Sensor), and MODIS (Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectrometer). The relative bias in Rrs has spectral dependence. Products derived from Rrs(λ) are affected by the bias to varying degrees, with particulate backscattering varying up to 50% over a year, chlorophyll varying up to 25% over a year, and absorption from phytoplankton or dissolved material varying by up to 15%. The propagation of Rrs(λ) bias into derived products is broadly confirmed on regional and global scales using Argo floats and data from the CALIOP (Cloud-Aerosol Lidar with Orthogonal Polarization) instrument aboard the CALIPSO (Cloud-Aerosol Lidar and Infrared Pathfinder) satellite. The artifactual seasonality in ocean color is prominent in areas of low biomass (i.e., subtropical gyres) and is not easily discerned in areas of high biomass. While we have eliminated several candidates that could cause the biases in Rrs(λ), there are still outstanding questions regarding potential contributions from atmospheric corrections. Specifically, we provide evidence that the aquatic bidirectional reflectance distribution function may in part cause the observed seasonal bias, but this does not preclude an additional effect of the aerosol estimation. Our investigation highlights the contributions that atmospheric correction schemes can make in introducing biases in Rrs (λ) and we recommend more simulations to discern these influence Rrs (λ) biases. Community efforts are needed to find the root cause of the seasonal bias because all past, present, and future data are or will be affected until a solution is implemented.

satellite ocean color↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Bias in Planning Algorithms

Does bias exist in planning algorithms? If so, how does bias manifest, and how important is this bias? Answering this question requires a formal, mathematical definition of bias. We formally define bias as the distance between the probability distributions of solutions returned by various algorithms, and the uniform distribution over solutions. We show in this paper that deterministic algorithms are inherently biased, as they don’t return all solutions, and that this property holds even when algorithms return a set of plans instead of just one plan. Exceptions are problem instances or problem classes for which only a single solution exists. We then discuss changing the definition of bias to compare the probability distributions of properties of sets of plans instead of individual plans. We show the property bias is smaller than the bias of actual plans. Finally, we show that entropy is a proxy for the more complex and more expensive distance measurement between pairs of probability distributions. We then describe a roadmap for future investigations of bias in planning.

Planning Scheduling Algorithms↗
NASA NTRS2024

Quantifying Volumetric Scattering Bias in ICESat-2 and Operation IceBridge Altimetry Over Greenland Firn and Aged Snow

The Ice, Cloud, and Land Elevation Satellite-2 (ICESat-2) mission has collected surface elevation measurements for over 5 years. ICESat-2 carries an instrument that emits laser light at 532 nm, and ice and snow absorb weakly at this wavelength. Previous modeling studies found that melting snow could induce significant bias to altimetry signals, but there is no formal assessment on ICESat-2 acquisitions during the melting season. We performed two case studies over the Greenland Ice Sheet to quantify bias in ICESat-2 signals over snow: one to validate Airborne Topographic Mapper (ATM) data against Next Generation Airborne Visible/Infrared Imaging Spectrometer (AVIRIS-NG) grain sizes, and a second to estimate ICESat-2 bias relative to ATM. We used snow optical grain sizes derived from ATM and AVIRIS-NG to attribute altimetry bias to snowpack properties. For the first case study, the mean and standard deviation of optical grain sizes were 340 ± 65 µm (AVIRIS-NG) and 670 ± 420 µm (ATM). A mean altimetry bias of 4.81 ± 1.76 cm was found for ATM, with larger biases linked to increases in grain size. In the second case study, we found a mean grain size of 910 ± 381 µm and biases of 6.42 ± 1.77 cm (ICESat-2) and 9.82 ± 0.97 cm (ATM). The grain sizes and densities needed to recreate biases with a model are uncommon in nature, so we propose that additional surface attributes must be considered to characterize ICESat-2 bias over snow. The altimetry biases are within the accuracy requirements of the ICESat-2 mission, but we cannot rule out more significant errors over coarse-grained snow.

Zachary Fair↗