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SLAB: simultaneous labeling and binding affinity prediction for protein–ligand structures

Machine learning models are often used as scoring functions to predict the binding affinity of a protein–ligand complex. These models are trained with limited amounts of data with experimentally measured binding affinity values. A large number of compounds are labeled inactive through single-concentration screens without measuring binding affinities. These inactive compounds, along with the active ones, can be used to train binary classification models, while regression models are trained using compounds with binding affinities only. However, the classification and regression tasks are often handled separately, without sharing the learned feature representations. In this paper, we propose a novel model architecture that jointly performs regression and classification objectives, aiming to maximize data utilization and improve predictive performance by leveraging two complementary tasks. In our setup, the regression yields the binding affinity, whereas the classification task yields the label as active or inactive. We demonstrate our method using PDBbind, the standard 3D structure database, as well as a dataset of flavivirus protease compounds with binding affinity data. Our experiments show that the new joint training strategy improves the accuracy of the model, increasing applicability in various practical drug screening scenarios.

Biological and medical sciences↗

Detection of Diversion in a Realistic Heat Pipe Microreactor Using Supervised Machine Learning

Microreactors (MRs) pose new challenges for international safeguards. Here, their small size and mass reproducibility make them ideal for deployment in greater numbers and in remote locations, making the job of safeguards inspectors more challenging. Machine learning (ML) is currently being applied to many fields to augment human performance and increase automation; in particular, ML could be used to provide insight for international inspectors to help detect the diversion of nuclear fuel from MR cores. Four ML model types (k-nearest neighbors, decision tree, random forest, and histogram-based gradient boosted ensemble) were trained on integrated flux and critical control drum angle data generated with Serpent 2 for a realistic heat pipe MR design, achieving nearly 100% binary classification accuracy of nominal and diversion core configurations by the end of 1 full power year for three of the four model types. Regression model variants were also trained, using the same input data, for predicting the number of fuel pins diverted. Root-mean-square errors below 5% of the total number of fuel pins were achieved by the 1 full power year mark for all models.

22 - GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗

THE zCOSMOS 20k GROUP CATALOG

We present an optical group catalog between 0.1 {approx}< z {approx}< 1 based on 16,500 high-quality spectroscopic redshifts in the completed zCOSMOS-bright survey. The catalog published herein contains 1498 groups in total and 192 groups with more than five observed members. The catalog includes both group properties and the identification of the member galaxies. Based on mock catalogs, the completeness and purity of groups with three and more members should be both about 83% with respect to all groups that should have been detectable within the survey, and more than 75% of the groups should exhibit a one-to-one correspondence to the 'real' groups. Particularly at high redshift, there are apparently more galaxies in groups in the COSMOS field than expected from mock catalogs. We detect clear evidence for the growth of cosmic structure over the last seven billion years in the sense that the fraction of galaxies that are found in groups (in volume-limited samples) increases significantly with cosmic time. In the second part of the paper, we develop a method for associating galaxies that only have photo-z to our spectroscopically identified groups. We show that this leads to improved definition of group centers, improved identification of the most massive galaxies in the groups, and improved identification of central and satellite galaxies, where we define the former to be galaxies at the minimum of the gravitational potential wells. Subsamples of centrals and satellites in the groups can be defined with purities up to 80%, while a straight binary classification of all group and non-group galaxies into centrals and satellites achieves purities of 85% and 75%, respectively, for the spectroscopic sample.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Machine learning for disruption warnings on Alcator C-Mod, DIII-D, and EAST

In this paper, we report on disruption prediction using a shallow machinelearning method known as Random Forests, trained on large databases containingonly plasma parameters that are available in real-time on Alcator C-Mod, DIII-D, and EAST. The database for each tokamak contains parameters sampled ~10 6 times throughout ~10 4 discharges (disruptive and non-disruptive) over the last 4years of operation. It is found that a number of parameters (e.g.P rad /P input ,l i ,n/n G ,B n=1 /B 0 ) exhibit changes in aggregate as a disruption is approached on one ormore of these tokamaks. However, for each machine, the most useful parameters,as well as the details of their precursor behaviors, are markedly different. When the prediction problem is framed using a binary classification scheme to discriminate between time slices "close to disruption" and "far from disruption," it is found that the prediction algorithms differ substantially in performance among the three machines ona time slice-by-time slice basis, but have similar disruption detection rates (~80-90%) on a shot-by-shot basis after appropriate optimisation. This could have important implications for disruption prediction and avoidance on ITER, for which developmentof a training database of disruptions may be infeasible. The algorithm's output is interpretable using a method that identifies the most strongly contributing inputsignals, which may have implications for avoiding disruptive scenarios. Lastly, to further support its real-time capability, successful applications in inter-shot and real-time environments on EAST and DIII-D are also discussed.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

Learning to Unknot

We introduce natural language processing into the study of knot theory, as made natural by the braid word representation of knots. We study the UNKNOT problem of determining whether or not a given knot is the unknot. After describing an algorithm to randomly generate N-crossing braids and their knot closures and discussing the induced prior on the distribution of knots, we apply binary classification to the UNKNOT decision problem. We find that the Reformer and shared-QK Transformer network architectures outperform fully-connected networks, though all perform at 95% accuracy. Perhaps surprisingly, we find that accuracy increases with the length of the braid word, and that the networks learn a direct correlation between the confidence of their predictions and the degree of the Jones polynomial. Finally, we utilize reinforcement learning (RL) to find sequences of Markov moves and braid relations that simplify knots and can identify unknots by explicitly giving the sequence of unknotting actions. Trust region policy optimization (TRPO) performs consistently well, reducing 80% of the unknots with up to 96 crossings we tested to the empty braid word, and thoroughly outperformed other RL algorithms and random walkers. Studying these actions, we find that braid relations are more useful in simplifying to the unknot than one of the Markov moves.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗

Beyond the hubble sequence – exploring galaxy morphology with unsupervised machine learning

We explore unsupervised machine learning for galaxy morphology analyses using a combination of feature extraction with a vector-quantized variational autoencoder (VQ-VAE) and hierarchical clustering (HC). We propose a new methodology that includes: (1) consideration of the clustering performance simultaneously when learning features from images; (2) allowing for various distance thresholds within the HC algorithm; (3) using the galaxy orientation to determine the number of clusters. This set-up provides 27 clusters created with this unsupervised learning that we show are well separated based on galaxy shape and structure (e.g. Sérsic index, concentration, asymmetry, Gini coefficient). These resulting clusters also correlate well with physical properties such as the colour–magnitude diagram, and span the range of scaling relations such as mass versus size amongst the different machine-defined clusters. When we merge these multiple clusters into two large preliminary clusters to provide a binary classification, an accuracy of $\sim 87{{\ \rm per\ cent}}$ is reached using an imbalanced data set, matching real galaxy distributions, which includes 22.7 per cent early-type galaxies and 77.3 per cent late-type galaxies. Comparing the given clusters with classic Hubble types (ellipticals, lenticulars, early spirals, late spirals, and irregulars), we show that there is an intrinsic vagueness in visual classification systems, in particular galaxies with transitional features such as lenticulars and early spirals. Based on this, the main result in this work is not how well our unsupervised method matches visual classifications and physical properties, but that the method provides an independent classification that may be more physically meaningful than any visually based ones.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Hybrid Quantum-Classical Neural Networks

Deep learning is one of the most successful and far-reaching strategies used in machine learning today. However, the scale and utility of neural networks is still greatly limited by the current hardware used to train them. These concerns have become increasingly pressing as conventional computers are soon expected to approach the physical limitations that will slow their performance improvements in the near future. For these reasons, scientists have begun to explore alternative computing platforms, like quantum computers, for training neural networks. In recent years, variational quantum circuits have emerged as one of the most successful approaches to quantum deep learning on noisy intermediate scale quantum devices. We propose a hybrid quantum-classical neural network architecture where each neuron is a variational quantum circuit. We empirically analyze the performance of this hybrid neural network on a series of binary classification data sets using a simulated IBM universal quantum computer and a state-of-the-art IBM universal quantum computer. On the simulated hardware, we observe that the hybrid neural network achieves around 10% higher classification accuracy and 20% better minimization of the cost function than an individual variational quantum circuit. On the quantum hardware, we observe that each model only performs well when the qubit and gate count is sufficiently small.

Arthur, Davis↗

Methane production and emissions in trees and forests

Forest ecosystem methane (CH 4 ) research has focused on soils, but trees are also important sources and sinks in forest CH 4 budgets. Living and dead trees transport and emit CH 4 produced in soils; living trees and dead wood emit CH 4 produced inside trees by microorganisms; and trees produce CH 4 through an abiotic photochemical process. Here, we review the state of the science on the production, consumption, transport, and emission of CH 4 by living and dead trees, and the spatial and temporal dynamics of these processes across hydrologic gradients inclusive of wetland and upland ecosystems. Emerging research demonstrates that tree CH 4 emissions can significantly increase the source strength of wetland forests, and modestly decrease the sink strength of upland forests. Scaling from stem or leaf measurements to trees or forests is limited by knowledge of the mechanisms by which trees transport soil-produced CH 4 , microbial processes produce and oxidize CH 4 inside trees, a lack of mechanistic models, the diffuse nature of forest CH 4 fluxes, complex overlap between sources and sinks, and extreme variation across individuals. Understanding the complex processes that regulate CH 4 source–sink dynamics in trees and forests requires cross-disciplinary research and new conceptual models that transcend the traditional binary classification of wetland vs upland forest.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

Quantitative ultrasound characterization of locally advanced breast cancer by estimation of its scatterer properties

Purpose: Tumor grading is an important part of breast cancer diagnosis and currently requires biopsy as its standard. Here, the authors investigate quantitative ultrasound parameters in locally advanced breast cancers that can potentially separate tumors from normal breast tissue and differentiate tumor grades. Methods: Ultrasound images and radiofrequency data from 42 locally advanced breast cancer patients were acquired and analyzed. Parameters related to the linear regression of the power spectrum—midband fit, slope, and 0-MHz-intercept—were determined from breast tumors and normal breast tissues. Mean scatterer spacing was estimated from the spectral autocorrelation, and the effective scatterer diameter and effective acoustic concentration were estimated from the Gaussian form factor. Parametric maps of each quantitative ultrasound parameter were constructed from the gated radiofrequency segments in tumor and normal tissue regions of interest. In addition to the mean values of the parametric maps, higher order statistical features, computed from gray-level co-occurrence matrices were also determined and used for characterization. Finally, linear and quadratic discriminant analyses were performed using combinations of quantitative ultrasound parameters to classify breast tissues. Results: Quantitative ultrasound parameters were found to be statistically different between tumor and normal tissue (p < 0.05). The combination of effective acoustic concentration and mean scatterer spacing could separate tumor from normal tissue with 82% accuracy, while the addition of effective scatterer diameter to the combination did not provide significant improvement (83% accuracy). Furthermore, the two advanced parameters, including effective scatterer diameter and mean scatterer spacing, were found to be statistically differentiating among grade I, II, and III tumors (p = 0.014 for scatterer spacing, p = 0.035 for effective scatterer diameter). The separation of the tumor grades further improved when the textural features of the effective scatterer diameter parametric map were combined with the mean value of the map (p = 0.004). Conclusions: Overall, the binary classification results (tumor versus normal tissue) were more promising than tumor grade assessment. Combinations of advanced parameters can further improve the separation of tumors from normal tissue compared to the use of linear regression parameters. While the linear regression parameters were sufficient for characterizing breast tumors and normal breast tissues, advanced parameters and their textural features were required to better characterize tumor subtypes.

62 RADIOLOGY AND NUCLEAR MEDICINE↗

Quantum Transfer Learning to Boost Dementia Detection

Dementia is a devastating condition with profound implications for individuals, families, and healthcare systems. Early and accurate detection of dementia is critical for timely intervention and improved patient outcomes. While classical machine learning and deep learning approaches have been explored extensively for dementia prediction, these solutions often struggle with high-dimensional biomedical data and large-scale datasets, quickly reaching computational and performance limitations. To address this challenge, quantum machine learning (QML) has emerged as a promising paradigm, offering faster training and advanced pattern recognition capabilities. This work aims to demonstrate the potential of quantum transfer learning (QTL) to enhance the performance of a weak classical deep learning model applied to a binary classification task for dementia detection. Besides, we show the effect of noise on the QTL-based approach, investigating the reliability and robustness of this method. Using the OASIS 2 dataset, we show how quantum techniques can transform a suboptimal classical model into a more effective solution for biomedical image classification, highlighting their potential impact on advancing healthcare technology.

Bhowmik, Sounak [University of Tennessee, Knoxvill↗

A Provably Accurate Randomized Sampling Algorithm for Logistic Regression

In statistics and machine learning, logistic regression is a widely-used supervised learning technique primarily employed for binary classification tasks. When the number of observations greatly exceeds the number of predictor variables, we present a simple, randomized sampling-based algorithm for logistic regression problem that guarantees high-quality approximations to both the estimated probabilities and the overall discrepancy of the model. Our analysis builds upon two simple structural conditions that boil down to randomized matrix multiplication, a fundamental and well-understood primitive of randomized numerical linear algebra. We analyze the properties of estimated probabilities of logistic regression when leverage scores are used to sample observations, and prove that accurate approximations can be achieved with a sample whose size is much smaller than the total number of observations. To further validate our theoretical findings, we conduct comprehensive empirical evaluations. Overall, our work sheds light on the potential of using randomized sampling approaches to efficiently approximate the estimated probabilities in logistic regression, offering a practical and computationally efficient solution for large-scale datasets.

Chowdhury, Agniva↗

Pairwise Association of Seismic Arrivals with Convolutional Neural Networks

Correctly determining the association of seismic phases across a network is crucial for developing accurate earthquake catalogs. Nearly all established methods use travel time information as the main criterion for determining associations, and in problems in which earthquake rates are high and many false arrivals are present, many standard techniques may fail to resolve the problem accurately. As an alternative approach, in this work we apply convolutional neural networks (CNNs) to the problem of associations; we train CNNs to read earthquake waveform arrival pairs between two stations and predict the binary classification of whether the two waveforms are from a common source or different sources. Applying the method to a large training dataset of previously cataloged earthquakes in Chile, we obtain >80% true positive prediction rates for high-frequency data (>2 Hz) and stations separated in excess of 100 km. As a secondary benefit, the output of the neural network can also be used to infer predicted phase types of arrivals. Here, the method is ideally applied in conjunction with standard travel-time-based association routines and can be adapted for arbitrary network geometries and applications, so long as sufficient training data are available.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

A Data-Driven Framework for Automated Detection of Aircraft-Generated Signals in Seismic Array Data Using Machine Learning

Abstract Ground motions associated with aircraft overflights can cover a significant portion of the seismic data collected by shallowly emplaced seismometers, such as new nodal and Distributed Acoustic Sensing systems. This article describes the first published framework for automated detection of aircraft on single channel and multichannel seismic data. The seismic data are converted to spectrograms in a sliding time window and classified as aircraft or nonaircraft in each window using a deep convolutional neural network trained with analyst-labeled data. A majority voting scheme is used to convert the output from the sequence of sliding time windows onto a decision time sequence for each channel and to combine the binary classifications on the decision time sequences across multiple channels. Precision, recall, and F-score are used to quantify the detection performance of the algorithm on nodal data using fourfold time-series cross validation. By applying our framework to data from the Sage Brush Flats nodal array in Southern California, we provide a benchmark performance and demonstrate the advantage of using an array of sensors.

Geochemistry & Geophysics↗

ICAT: The Interactive Corpus Analysis Tool

The Interactive Corpus Analysis Tool (ICAT) is a Python library for creating dashboards to explore textual datasets and build simple binary classification models to help filter through them and focus on entries of interest. This tool uses a form of interactive machine learning (IML), a paradigm of “machine teaching” (Simard et al., 2017) that sits at the intersection of the fields of human computer interaction (HCI), visual analytics, and machine learning. The intent of ICAT is to allow subject matter experts (SME) with limited to no experience in machine learning to benefit from an iterative human-in-the-loop (HITL) approach to building their own model without needing to understand the details of the underlying algorithm. This interactivity is achieved by allowing the user to create features, label data points, and visually manipulate a representation of the features to manually cluster and investigate data, while a model is trained on the fly based on these actions. ICAT is built on top of the Panel (Holoviz, 2018) library, using a combination of Vega, a custom IPyWidget using D3, and ipyvuetify, and is intended to be used inside of a Jupyter environment.

Martindale, Nathan [Oak Ridge National Laboratory ↗

Machine Learning for Big Data: A Study to Understand Limits at Scale

This report aims to empirically understand the limits of machine learning when applied to Big Data. We observe that recent innovations in being able to collect, access, organize, integrate, and query massive amounts of data from a wide variety of data sources have brought statistical data mining and machine learning under more scrutiny, evaluation and application for gleaning insights from the data than ever before. Much is expected from algorithms without understanding their limitations at scale while dealing with massive datasets. In that context, we pose and address the following questions How does a machine learning algorithm perform on measures such as accuracy and execution time with increasing sample size and feature dimensionality? Does training with more samples guarantee better accuracy? How many features to compute for a given problem? Do more features guarantee better accuracy? Do efforts to derive and calculate more features and train on larger samples worth the effort? As problems become more complex and traditional binary classification algorithms are replaced with multi-task, multi-class categorization algorithms do parallel learners perform better? What happens to the accuracy of the learning algorithm when trained to categorize multiple classes within the same feature space? Towards finding answers to these questions, we describe the design of an empirical study and present the results. We conclude with the following observations (i) accuracy of the learning algorithm increases with increasing sample size but saturates at a point, beyond which more samples do not contribute to better accuracy/learning, (ii) the richness of the feature space dictates performance - both accuracy and training time, (iii) increased dimensionality often reflected in better performance (higher accuracy in spite of longer training times) but the improvements are not commensurate the efforts for feature computation and training and (iv) accuracy of the learning algorithms drop significantly with multi-class learners training on the same feature matrix and (v) learning algorithms perform well when categories in labeled data are independent (i.e., no relationship or hierarchy exists among categories).

96 KNOWLEDGE MANAGEMENT AND PRESERVATION↗

Parameter Estimation for Thurstone Choice Models

We consider the estimation accuracy of individual strength parameters of a Thurstone choice model when each input observation consists of a choice of one item from a set of two or more items (so called top-1 lists). This model accommodates the well-known choice models such as the Luce choice model for comparison sets of two or more items and the Bradley-Terry model for pair comparisons. We provide a tight characterization of the mean squared error of the maximum likelihood parameter estimator. We also provide similar characterizations for parameter estimators defined by a rank-breaking method, which amounts to deducing one or more pair comparisons from a comparison of two or more items, assuming independence of these pair comparisons, and maximizing a likelihood function derived under these assumptions. We also consider a related binary classification problem where each individual parameter takes value from a set of two possible values and the goal is to correctly classify all items within a prescribed classification error. The results of this paper shed light on how the parameter estimation accuracy depends on given Thurstone choice model and the structure of comparison sets. In particular, we found that for unbiased input comparison sets of a given cardinality, when in expectation each comparison set of given cardinality occurs the same number of times, for a broad class of Thurstone choice models, the mean squared error decreases with the cardinality of comparison sets, but only marginally according to a diminishing returns relation. On the other hand, we found that there exist Thurstone choice models for which the mean squared error of the maximum likelihood parameter estimator can decrease much faster with the cardinality of comparison sets. We report empirical evaluation of some claims and key parameters revealed by theory using both synthetic and real-world input data from some popular sport competitions and online labor platforms.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Learning Memento archive routing with Character-based Artificial Neural Networks

This white paper describes a series of tests that were performed to determine if a neural network could learn patterns from a service that maintains a cache of routing decisions for the discovery of version information for discrete web-at-large URLs. Labeled training data was derived from a log file that records the by-archive availability of Memento availability for a given URL. Training data sets were generated from this log file on a by-archive basis (thus making it a binary classification problem). Each training data set consisted of equal numbers of hit and miss URLs, selected at random. The URLs were converted to a normalized numeric representation where each integer in a URL training vector represents a character in that URL. The corresponding label indicates whether or not Mementos were available for that URL in the selected archive. The training data matrix and the label vector became input to a neural network. A number of neural network architectures and network hyperparameters were explored, however the log entries themselves were used as-is, without any feature engineering, beyond the aforementioned normalization.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

FORTÉ Machine Learning

Of the non-corrupted data collected by the Orbiting Experiment (forté) satellite’s Photo-Diode Detector during the year 2001, I estimate that 7.9% of 914 894 signals are noise. My result differs dramatically from Guillen’s estimate of 96%. To arrive at this estimate, I used Gaussian mixture model (GMM) clustering–unsupervised machine learning–to aggregate the wave forms into groups based on the absolute value of the lowest 25 positive frequency discrete Fourier transform coefficients. Then, I marked several of the groups as noise by inspecting a random sampling of wave forms from each group. Marking groups as either noise or non-noise is a supervised binary classification operation. After removing the signals in noise groups from further consideration, I clustered the remaining signals into families. Again, I used a GMM, but for the familial clustering I used a Non-Negative Matrix Factorization feature vector transform. The result was 9 distinct families of lightning signals, as well as a second stage of noise filtering. To efficiently represent the entirety of the signal space, I broke each family into deciles based on their distance from the family mean. In this case, distance means the log-likelihood based on the GMM. Signals in lower deciles are more similar in shape and amplitude to their family average. I took the top 200 samples from each decile of each group, resulting in 18 000 signals. These signal approximately represent the entirety of the forté observations. To represent outliers, I also kept a zoo of the 1000 signals furthest from any family’s average. All told, the resulting data set represents the forté data with a reduction of about 51:1. To allow synthesis of an arbitrarily large number of test signals, I also captured each family’s average signal and the time-sample covariance matrix over the signals in each family. Using these two pieces of information, I can synthesize new waveforms by using a Gaussian random realization from the family average and covariance matrix. I wrote a program to test the synthesis quality. The program shows me two signals on the screen, one synthesized and one randomly drawn from the data. I attempted to identify the synthesized signal. Although the synthesis is imperfect, in an A/B comparison I only correctly chose the synthesized signal 36% of the time.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗