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DOE OSTI2025

Optical properties of vacancies in aluminum oxide (𝛼−Al 2 ⁢O 3 ) from first principles

We employ first-principles calculations based on hybrid density functional theory to investigate the structural and optical properties of the oxygen vacancy (𝑉 O ) and aluminum vacancy (𝑉 Al ) in 𝛼−Al 2 ⁢O 3 , the most stable (corundum) phase of alumina. Our calculations facilitate the identification of experimental excitation and luminescence spectra with specific electronic transitions at the vacancy sites. The absorption line shape for excitation of an electron at 𝑉$^0_O$ to the conduction-band minimum (CBM) is in excellent agreement with the 6.1 eV band detected by optical absorption spectroscopy, and we find that the 5.9 eV absorption band is generated by an internal electron transition at 𝑉$^0_O$. We confirm that the slowly decaying 3.0 eV emission band of the 𝐹 center is due to a triplet-singlet transition at 𝑉$^0_O$. Our calculations also reveal that the 4.8 eV/5.4 eV absorption and 3.8 eV emission bands assigned to the 𝐹 + center are generated by internal transitions at 𝑉$^{+1}_O$. The line shape for the excitation of an electron from 𝑉$^{+1}_O$ to the CBM agrees well with an absorption band at 6.4 eV, while the recombination of an electron with 𝑉$^{+2}_O$ also produces luminescence around 3.8 eV, but with a considerably broader line shape. For Al vacancies, we confirm that the most prevalent configuration in 𝛼−Al 2 ⁢O 3 is a split-vacancy configuration 𝑉 Al,s , and we calculate migration barriers for different directions in the corundum crystal. We predict absorption and emission spectra for the excitation and recombination of an electron localized at 𝑉$^{−3}_{Al}$ and 𝑉$^{−3}_{Al,s}$ sites with the CBM. The line shapes of the two 𝑉 Al configurations overlap and are considerably broader than the spectra corresponding to 𝑉 O .

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

DOE OSTI2026

Expanding Access to Science Participation: A FAIR Framework for Petascale Data Visualization and Analytics

The massive data generated by scientists daily serve as both a major catalyst for new discoveries and innovations, as well as a significant roadblock that restricts access to the data. Here, our paper introduces a new approach to removing Big Data barriers and democratizing access to petascale data for the broader scientific community. Our novel data fabric abstraction layer allows user-friendly querying of scientific information while hiding the complexities of dealing with file systems or cloud services. We enable FAIR (Findable, Accessible, Interoperable, and Reusable) access to datasets such as NASA’s petascale climate datasets. Our paper presents an approach to managing, visualizing, and analyzing petabytes of data within a browser on equipment ranging from the top NASA supercomputer to commodity hardware like a laptop. Our novel data fabric abstraction utilizes state-of-the art progressive compression algorithms and machine-learning insights to power scalable visualization dashboards for petascale data. The result provides users with the ability to identify extreme events or trends dynamically, expanding access to scientific data and further enabling discoveries. We validate our approach by improving the ability of climate scientists to visually explore their data via three fully interactive dashboards. We further validate our approach by deploying the dashboards and simplified training materials in the classroom at a minority-serving institution. These dashboards, released in simplified form to the general public, contribute significantly to a broader push to democratize the access and use of climate data.

Computer science↗

DOE OSTI2020

Community structure – Ecosystem function relationships in the Congo Basin methane cycle depend on the physiological scale of function

Belowground ecosystem processes can be highly variable and difficult to predict using microbial community data. Here, we argue that this stems from at least three issues: (a) complex covariance structure of samples (with environmental conditions or spatial proximity) can make distinguishing biotic drivers a challenge; (b) communities can control ecosystem processes through multiple mechanisms, making the identification of these controls a challenge; and (c) ecosystem function assessments can be broad in physiological scale, encapsulating multiple processes with unique microbially mediated controls. In this work, we test these assertions using methane (CH 4 )-cycling processes in soil samples collected along a wetland-to-upland habitat gradient in the Congo Basin. We perform our measurements of function under controlled laboratory conditions and statistically control for environmental covariates to aid in identifying biotic drivers. We divide measurements of microbial communities into four attributes (abundance, activity, composition, and diversity) that represent different forms of community control. Lastly, our process measurements differ in physiological scale, including broader processes (gross methanogenesis and methanotrophy) that involve more mediating groups, to finer processes (hydrogenotrophic methanogenesis and high-affinity CH 4 oxidation) with fewer mediating groups. We observed that finer scale processes can be more readily predicted from microbial community structure than broader scale processes. In addition, the nature of those relationships differed, with broad processes limited by abundance while fine-scale processes were associated with diversity and composition. These findings demonstrate the importance of carefully defining the physiological scale of ecosystem function and performing community measurements that represent the range of possible controls on ecosystem processes.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2025

Interactions between macro‐ and micro‐climate: Effects on phenolic compound production in Nardus stricta at high elevations

Abstract Phenolic compounds are key to plant defence, offering protection as antioxidants, UV shields, and antimicrobials. Their production is largely shaped by environmental conditions. It is believed that plants at lower elevations increase phenolic content to counter herbivory, while those at higher elevations rely on phenolics to manage abiotic stresses, such as climate variability. Microhabitat warming also affects phenolic levels, but responses differ, depending on broader climatic contexts: plants in warmer, lower‐elevation environments show limited adaptability, whereas high‐elevation plants demonstrate greater plasticity. Despite the importance of these environmental interactions, many small‐scale abiotic studies lack sufficient spatial replication across broader gradients like elevation or latitude, while large‐scale studies frequently overlook microscale factors. This study investigated the effects of macroclimate factors and microhabitat warming on phenolic production in Nardus stricta across five semi‐natural grassland sites (1546–1875 m a.s.l.) in Portugal's Serra da Estrela. Warming was simulated using open‐top chambers over two growing seasons, after which leaf samples were analysed for phenolic compounds, and soil nutrients were measured. The N. stricta plants at the highest elevation site contained significantly higher leaf flavonoid concentrations. Microhabitat warming led to a significant decrease in flavonoid concentrations, but only at the highest elevation site. These effects occurred independently of soil nutrient levels, suggesting direct thermal effects or stress responses might be involved. Our findings highlight the complex interactions between macro‐ and microenvironmental factors in shaping plant chemistry, underscoring critical considerations for plant resilience in the face of climate change. This understanding is essential for developing strategies to support plant and ecosystem adaptation to changing climates.

Moreira, X. [Misión Biológica de Galicia (MBG‐CSIC↗

DOE OSTI2024

Readout optimization of multi-amplifier sensing charge-coupled devices for single-quantum measurement

The non-destructive readout capability of the Skipper Charge Coupled Device (CCD) has been demonstrated to reduce the noise limitation of conventional silicon devices to levels that allow single-photon or single-electron counting. The noise reduction is achieved by taking multiple measurements of the charge in each pixel. These multiple measurements come at the cost of extra readout time, which has been a limitation for the broader adoption of this technology in particle physics, quantum imaging, and astronomy applications. This work presents recent results of a novel sensor architecture that uses multiple non-destructive floating-gate amplifiers in series to achieve sub-electron readout noise in a thick, fully-depleted silicon detector to overcome the readout time overhead of the Skipper-CCD. This sensor is called the Multiple-Amplifier Sensing Charge-Coupled Device (MAS-CCD) can perform multiple independent charge measurements with each amplifier, and the measurements from multiple amplifiers can be combined to further reduce the readout noise. We will show results obtained for sensors with 8 and 16 amplifiers per readout stage in new readout operations modes to optimize its readout speed. The noise reduction capability of the new techniques will be demonstrated in terms of its ability to reduce the noise by combining the information from the different amplifiers, and to resolve signals in the order of a single photon per pixel. The first readout operation explored here avoids the extra readout time needed in the MAS-CCD to read a line of the sensor associated with the extra extent of the serial register. The second technique explore the capability of the MAS-CCD device to perform a region of interest readout increasing the number of multiple samples per amplifier in a targeted region of the active area of the device.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗

DOE OSTI2021

Preshaping clear glass at low temperatures

Advances in available glass chemistries and glass processing methods have accompanied and enabled some of the biggest technology revolutions, from the development and mass production of light bulbs to low-loss fiber optics and durable smartphone touchscreens. An emerging generation of low-temperature processing technologies aims to continue this important trend and make a broader array of glass components mass producible. In the issue, Mader et al. (1) describe one such innovation in glass processing—the use of low-temperature injection molding to preshape silica particle–filled composites that can later be transformed into transparent fused silica glass objects. Traditionally, transparent glass objects are manufactured in high volume from molten or softened glass, which is floated, drawn, blown, cast, or blow-molded to a desired shape (see the figure, top). The glass composition and processing technique dictate the working temperature, which is usually quite high (near 1000°C) and often restricts the choice of compatible equipment or limits the choice of glass composition. Because geometry-specific capital investment is required for production, drastic or frequent component design changes or small batches may be cost prohibitive. Alternatively, transparent glass components can also be shaped at ambient temperature from solid glass by a series of subtractive processes, including cutting or multiple stages of grinding, followed by slower processing steps, such as polishing or etching. This approach is somewhat less amenable to mass production, and certain geometries containing tool-inaccessible regions cannot be fabricated in this way. Several emerging glass-shaping technologies aim to reduce the required manufacturing temperatures and still provide access to a broader range of glass compositions and component geometries (see the figure). These approaches use a three-step process. First, a desired shape is preformed at low temperature from a glass-forming, organic-inorganic composite. Next, the preform is dried, and organic materials used to bind particles are removed. Finally, the preform is heated (sintered) well below the glass-melting temperature to densify to transparent glass. Although the second and third steps do occur at increased temperatures, only standard, geometry-agnostic driers and furnaces are required. This strategy builds on the well-studied sol-gel approach to forming monolithic glass, where silica network–forming chemical solutions are poured into molds, slowly dried, and condensed into dense glass without melting (2). In a departure from the sol-gel process, these new technologies use solvents, cross-linkers, and polymers to formulate organic-inorganic composites tuned for compatibility with a particular shaping process, with formats ranging from photocurable liquids to shear-thickening pastes to solids. The composite inorganic loadings are also typically higher than those in the pure sol-gel approach, which drastically reduces shrinkage in comparison.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

DOE OSTI2020

stovertillage2019-bc1040-060

As part of the Billion Ton resource assessment projections created in 2016 (see https://www.energy.gov/sites/prod/files/2016/12/f34/2016_billion_ton_rep...), this dataset was produced and titled a "base-case" scenario. This broader dataset provided an updated assessment of the potential economic availability of biomass resources from agricultural lands reported at the farmgate under conservative assumptions. Crop residues quantified in this dataset include corn stover, cereal (wheat, oats, and barley) straws, and sorghum stubble. We have isolated corn stover in this dataset. What is the purpose of the data set? Why were the data collected?* Per request for use in subsequent research, we have isolated corn stover in 2019 from the broader base-case projections and have provided tillage classification details from this projection. Tillage classification assumptions in this scenario allow a moderate deviation from a baseline situation (using historic CTIC data on tillage type used in counties for each crop). This dataset allowed moderate flexibility of farmers to put land into another tillage type (no till, conservation till, and reduced till) where a higher net present value was calculated.

Davis, Maggie R.↗

DOE OSTI2024

Evidential Deep Learning: Enhancing Predictive Uncertainty Estimation for Earth System Science Applications

Abstract Robust quantification of predictive uncertainty is a critical addition needed for machine learning applied to weather and climate problems to improve the understanding of what is driving prediction sensitivity. Ensembles of machine learning models provide predictive uncertainty estimates in a conceptually simple way but require multiple models for training and prediction, increasing computational cost and latency. Parametric deep learning can estimate uncertainty with one model by predicting the parameters of a probability distribution but does not account for epistemic uncertainty. Evidential deep learning, a technique that extends parametric deep learning to higher-order distributions, can account for both aleatoric and epistemic uncertainties with one model. This study compares the uncertainty derived from evidential neural networks to that obtained from ensembles. Through applications of the classification of winter precipitation type and regression of surface-layer fluxes, we show evidential deep learning models attaining predictive accuracy rivaling standard methods while robustly quantifying both sources of uncertainty. We evaluate the uncertainty in terms of how well the predictions are calibrated and how well the uncertainty correlates with prediction error. Analyses of uncertainty in the context of the inputs reveal sensitivities to underlying meteorological processes, facilitating interpretation of the models. The conceptual simplicity, interpretability, and computational efficiency of evidential neural networks make them highly extensible, offering a promising approach for reliable and practical uncertainty quantification in Earth system science modeling. To encourage broader adoption of evidential deep learning, we have developed a new Python package, Machine Integration and Learning for Earth Systems (MILES) group Generalized Uncertainty for Earth System Science (GUESS) (MILES-GUESS) ( https://github.com/ai2es/miles-guess ), that enables users to train and evaluate both evidential and ensemble deep learning. Significance Statement This study demonstrates a new technique, evidential deep learning, for robust and computationally efficient uncertainty quantification in modeling the Earth system. The method integrates probabilistic principles into deep neural networks, enabling the estimation of both aleatoric uncertainty from noisy data and epistemic uncertainty from model limitations using a single model. Our analyses reveal how decomposing these uncertainties provides valuable insights into reliability, accuracy, and model shortcomings. We show that the approach can rival standard methods in classification and regression tasks within atmospheric science while offering practical advantages such as computational efficiency. With further advances, evidential networks have the potential to enhance risk assessment and decision-making across meteorology by improving uncertainty quantification, a longstanding challenge. This work establishes a strong foundation and motivation for the broader adoption of evidential learning, where properly quantifying uncertainties is critical yet lacking.

Schreck, John S.↗

DOE OSTI2026

Data for Transposon Signatures of Allopolyploid Genome Evolution

Hybridization brings together chromosome sets from two or more distinct progenitor species. Genome duplication associated with hybridization, or allopolyploidy, allows these chromosome sets to persist as distinct subgenomes during subsequent meioses. Here, we present a general method for identifying the subgenomes of a polyploid based on shared ancestry as revealed by the genomic distribution of repetitive elements that were active in the progenitors. This subgenome-enriched transposable element signal is intrinsic to the polyploid, allowing broader applicability than other approaches that depend on the availability of sequenced diploid relatives. We develop the statistical basis of the method, demonstrate its applicability in the well-studied cases of tobacco, cotton, and Brassica napus, and apply it to several cases: allotetraploid cyprinids, allohexaploid false flax, and allooctoploid strawberry. These analyses provide insight into the origins of these polyploids, revise the subgenome identities of strawberry, and provide perspective on subgenome dominance in higher polyploids.

Genomics↗

DOE OSTI2023

Spectral shaping of an ultrafast ytterbium fiber laser via a passive intracavity optical filter: a simple and reliable route to sub-45 fs pulses

We investigate the use of passive intracavity optical filters for controlling the laser output spectrum of a polarization-mode-locked, ultrafast ytterbium fiber laser. The overall lasing bandwidth is increased or extended by strategic choice of the filter cutoff frequency. Overall laser performance, including pulse compression and intensity noise, is investigated for both shortpass and longpass filters with a range of cutoff frequencies. The intracavity filter not only shapes the output spectra, but also provides a route for overall broader bandwidths and shorter pulses in ytterbium fiber lasers. These results demonstrate that spectral shaping with a passive filter is a useful tool to routinely achieve sub-45 fs pulse durations in ytterbium fiber lasers.

Cooper, Nicholas D.↗

DOE OSTI2022

High-efficiency second harmonic generation of blue light on thin-film lithium niobate

The strength of interactions between photons in a χ (2) nonlinear optical waveguide increases at shorter wavelengths. These larger interactions enable coherent spectral translation and light generation at a lower power, over a broader bandwidth, and in a smaller device: all of which open the door to new technologies spanning fields from classical to quantum optics. Stronger interactions may also grant access to new regimes of quantum optics to be explored at the few-photon level. One promising platform that could enable these advances is thin-film lithium niobate (TFLN), due to its broad optical transparency window and possibility for quasi-phase matching and dispersion engineering. In this Letter, we demonstrate second harmonic generation of blue light on an integrated thin-film lithium niobate waveguide and observe a conversion efficiency of η 0 = 33, 000%/W- cm 2 , significantly exceeding previous demonstrations.

Park, Taewon↗

DOE OSTI2026

Post-fire time series photos from five sites across the Oak Creek watershed, Washington

This dataset supports a broader study examining wildfire impacts on hydrologic connectivity across 5 sites within the Oak Creek watershed and the resulting biogeochemical impacts. Sites were selected using the Advanced Terrestrial Simulator (ATS) hydrologic model to identify locations with varying groundwater contributions and hydrologic responses across different burn severity scenarios. The Retreat Fire burned from July 23 to August 2, 2024, affecting all five sites. This dataset provides time series game camera photos, while the broader study includes continuous water quality monitoring, biogeochemical sampling of water and soils, precipitation data, and organic matter analysis. The other data types and additional metadata (include site environmental information) can be found at https://data.ess-dive.lbl.gov/datasets/doi:10.15485/3018020. Because this study is ongoing, this data package will be updated regularly to include newly collected photos. For details on how to navigate data packages generated by this project, see https://data.ess-dive.lbl.gov/portals/PNNLRiverCorridorSFA/About. In addition to a readme, this data package also includes a file-level metadata (FLMD) file that describes each file and a data dictionary (DD) that describes all column/row headers and variable definitions. This dataset is comprised of (1) file-level metadata; (2) data dictionary; (3) field metadata; (4) readme; (5) field protocol; and (6) folders of game camera photos. The game camera photos are organized by site with subfolders by month of collection. The field metadata contains a subset of the information collected that is most relevant to photo-processing. The full set of field metadata can be found at https://data.ess-dive.lbl.gov/datasets/doi:10.15485/3018020. All files are .csv, .pdf, or .jpg.

Burn severity↗

DOE OSTI2026

Soil Temperature Sensor Data, 2025, Five sites in Knoxville, Tennessee

This dataset contains surface soil temperature measurements from five urban parks in Knoxville, Tennessee: Cumberland Estates Park (CE), Socially Equal Energy Efficient Development (SD), West View Park (WV), Victor Ashe Park (VA), and West Hills Park (WH). The dataset includes 16 CSV files documenting soil temperature measurements recorded by HOBO Pendant MX Water Temperature Data Loggers. Data collection for all sites began on January 1, 2025. The end time for each sensor is provided in the End Time_2025.csv file. Each logger was installed at a depth of 10 inches and positioned approximately 3 to 6 feet from the weather station at each site. This dataset is part of a broader study examining the effects of soil moisture and plant evapotranspiration on ambient temperature and relative humidity across multiple urban parks in Knoxville.

Salvador, Christian [ORNL] (ORCID:0000000283287777↗

DOE OSTI2021

Implications of doping on microstructure, processing, and thermoelectric performance: The case of PbSe

Abstract In this work, we highlight the often-overlooked effects of doping on the microstructure and performance of bulk thermoelectric materials to offer a broader perspective on how dopants interact with their parent material. Using PbSe doped with Na, Ag, and K as a model material system, we combine original computational, experimental, and microscopy data with established trends in material behavior, to provide an in-depth discussion of the relationship between dopants, processing, and microstructure, and their effects on thermoelectric efficiency and thermal stability. Notable observations include differences in the microstructure and mass loss of thermally treated samples of Na- and Ag-doped PbSe, as well as findings that Na and K cations exist predominantly as substitutional point defects while Ag also occupies interstitial sites and exhibits lower solubility. We discuss how these differences in point defect populations are known to affect a dopants’ ability to alter carrier concentration and how they may affect the mechanical properties of PbSe during processing. Graphic Abstract

Grovogui, Jann A. (ORCID:0000000200481049)↗

DOE OSTI2026

Experimental longitudinal emittance manipulation using laser-based photoionization in the Fermilab Linac

A series of simulations and beam studies were conducted at Fermilab’s linear accelerator to evaluate the effectiveness of longitudinal emittance control via laser-induced photoionization. While similar laser techniques have been employed at Fermilab to enhance injection and extraction efficiency into the Booster, the work presented here focuses on extending these methods to bunch-by-bunch manipulation. This approach utilizes fine-scale correction of the H- bunches’ longitudinal spatial distribution. In theory, loosely confined particles in longitudinal phase space contribute to emittance growth during acceleration. By selectively removing these outlying particles through laser scraping (H- + γ → H + e-), this growth can be reduced. This report presents experimental results from both symmetric and asymmetric longitudinal scraping of H⁻ bunches in the Fermilab linac, which were subsequently injected into Booster, and evaluates the broader applicability of this method for future high-intensity accelerator operations.

Landon, Parker [Boston U.; Fermilab]↗

DOE OSTI2020

ECP Software Technology Capability Assessment Report

The Exascale Computing Project (ECP) Software Technology (ST) Focus Area is responsible for developing critical software capabilities that will enable successful execution of ECP applications, and for providing key components of a productive and sustainable Exascale computing ecosystem that will position the US Department of Energy (DOE) and the broader high performance (HPC) community with a firm foundation for future extreme-scale computing capabilities. This ECP ST Capability Assessment Report (CAR) provides an overview and assessment of current ECP ST capabilities and activities, giving stakeholders and the broader HPC community information that can be used to assess ECP ST progress and plan their own efforts accordingly. ECP ST leaders commit to updating this document on regular basis (every six to 12 months).

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

DOE OSTI2020

An Overview of Behind-the-Meter Solar-Plus-Storage Regulatory Design: Approaches and Case Studies to Inform International Applications

Behind-the-meter energy storage systems paired with distributed photovoltaic (DPV) - with the capability to act as both generation and load - represent a unique and disruptive power sector technology capable of providing a range of important services to customers, utilities, and the broader power system. How should regulators, utilities, and policymakers manage the range of challenges and opportunities that increased behind-the-meter energy storage deployment will bring to the power system, in particular when these systems are paired with DPV? This report is intended to offer key regulatory considerations for facilitating DPV-plus-storage programs for retail customers; relevant cases from U.S. states are provided as examples of how novel regulatory issues related to behind-the-meter energy storage systems paired with DPV are being addressed in practice. At a high level, designing a regulatory framework that aligns DPV-plus-storage deployment with larger policy objectives requires thoughtful deliberation across a range of technical and economic issues. While this report attempts to segment many of these issues into distinct topics to enhance reader understanding, in reality, DPV-plus-storage regulatory issues are all closely integrated, and design decisions on a single aspect often have broader implications. With that in mind, this report outlines a series of steps that can be employed by regulators to approach DPV-plus-storage regulatory design.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2020

Defending the Homeland: Growing Foreign Challenges to the U.S. Missile Defense Posture

The Office of the Secretary of Defense (OSD) for Policy requested that Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory conduct a Congressionally directed study on homeland missile defense, pursuant to Section 1692 of the fiscal year 2020 National Defense Authorization Act. In accordance with the statutory language, this study considers whether the security benefits obtained by deployment of homeland missile defenses of the United States are undermined or counterbalanced by adverse reactions of potential adversaries, and considers the effectiveness of homeland missile defense efforts of the United States to deter the development of ballistic missiles. Almost a half-century has elapsed since the United States and the Soviet Union signed the Anti-Ballistic Missile (ABM) Treaty, and almost two decades since the former withdrew. Since withdrawing, the United States has sought to develop and deploy a layered missile defense system to defend against regional threats to U.S. and allied interests abroad and to counter limited threats to the U.S. homeland. As such, missile defense supports key national defense policy objectives. Protecting the U.S. homeland, forces abroad, allies, and partners. Deterring attacks against the United States, its allies, and partners. Assuring allies an strengthening U.S. diplomatic activities in peacetime and crisis. We offer five key findings: 1. The primary benefit of the Ground-based Midcourse Defense (GMD) system is the protection it provides the U.S. homeland against a limited but evolving rogue-state missile threat. While this system has never been tested in combat, it appears thus far to have effectively paced North Korea’s development and deployment of intercontinental ballistic missiles (ICBMs). In the absence of such a defensive capability, the United States would likely have been more heavily exposed to North Korean actions, would have operated at a much higher-risk posture, and would have had less negotiating room with which to navigate coercive tactics and crises. Its allies would have been more concerned about U.S. willingness in time of crisis and war to run the risks of protecting them. The GMD system also serves as a hedge against Iranian breakout. 2. Potential adversaries continue to develop long-range ballistic missiles despite deployment of a U.S. homeland missile defense system. This includes both rogue states and major power rivals whose long-range missile programs predated the deployment of U.S. missile defenses. While North Korea has continued its long-range missile developments and achieved an intercontinental capability, Iran has not yet reached this threshold. The broader proliferation of long-range missiles anticipated in the late 1990s has not materialized. 3. While Russia has used the existence of a U.S. homeland missile defense system as a justification for its substantial and continuing weapon modernization program, neither Russian force modernization nor the limited U.S. homeland missile defense system has altered the strategic balance. Russia has long considered U.S. missile defenses—both theater and homeland—as directed against its strategic forces and as a capability that could rapidly advance, thereby eroding Russian confidence in its nuclear deterrent. Russia’s political and military actions appear excessive and negatively impact areas such as arms control, but they do not undermine the primary benefit of the U.S. system cited in Key Finding 1. 4. China’s expansion and diversification of nuclear and missile forces has been influenced by its concerns about U.S. homeland missile defense, but those concerns are only one of many factors in China’s force planning. Although China’s actions to preserve and expand its assured retaliation prospects have not fundamentally altered the strategic balance, its buildup and lack of transparency about its force modernization goals are troubling. Taken together, the aggregate pattern of China’s modernization activities over the past two decades strongly suggests a concerted effort to develop a modern military force commensurate with its intended geopolitical status. Whatever China’s legacy concerns over the survivability of its strategic nuclear forces, its ability to overwhelm the GMD system appears intact today and will be further strengthened in the years ahead as it continues its long-term modernization program. China’s political and military actions negatively affect U.S. security interests but do not undermine the primary benefit of the U.S. system cited in Key Finding 1. 5. The basic finding that benefits have not so far been undermined by adverse reactions is a function of circumstances that are increasingly in flux. The existing GMD-centered system is under increasing pressure from the pace and scope of North Korean missile deployments. The proposed “layered” system seeks to mitigate this impending capability gap in the near term and to complement future capabilities, such as the Next Generation Interceptor, when they come online. Given the pace of U.S. missile defense developments since 2000, it is possible that adversary advances in capability will outpace the U.S. system’s ability to adapt. Additionally, because this layered system is in principle more readily scaled, it will almost certainly be viewed skeptically by China and Russia. In a context of growing great-power security competition, the Department of Defense (DoD) should consider undertaking a broader net assessment of the U.S., Russian, and Chinese force balance.

45 MILITARY TECHNOLOGY, WEAPONRY, AND NATIONAL DEF↗