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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 91 records · Page 5
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2025

Advancements in Heat Transfer and Fluid Mechanics (Fundamentals and Applications)

Thermo-fluid science is a foundational discipline for numerous mechanical systems, particularly in energy production and building equipment, where thermal and mechanical energy transfer play critical roles. Advancements in heat transfer and fluid mechanics have significantly enhanced these systems, driving progress in associated market sectors. For instance, evaporator and condenser coils are essential for optimizing vapor compression cycles in building equipment. Heat pumps used for space and water heating constitute a major share of building systems, with microchannel heat exchanger technology at the forefront of these innovations. It is worth mentioning that advancements in heat transfer and fluid mechanics significantly alleviate the challenge of designing energy-efficient building equipment. The development of research techniques has contributed significantly to the advancement of science; for example, in the experimental field, non-intrusive measurement techniques such as Particle Image Velocimetry (PIV) are now capable of resolving flow behavior in a 3D format for different length and time scales.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2020

Combined Heat and Power Technology Fact Sheet Series: Thermal Energy Storage

This fact sheet provides an overview of thermal energy storage (TES) technologies, which heat or cool a storage medium and, when needed, deliver the stored thermal energy to meet heating or cooling needs. TES systems are used in commercial buildings, industrial processes, and district energy installations to deliver stored thermal energy during peak demand periods, thereby reducing peak energy use. TES systems are often integrated with electric or absorption chillers to reduce peak electricity costs and, in the case of new construction, to reduce capital costs by optimizing chiller size. TES technologies can support sites that have either renewable or fossil power generation, including combined heat and power (CHP) installations. With CHP, TES can help optimize equipment size by reducing the required peak CHP thermal capacity and increasing annual CHP usage. TES can also provide turbine inlet cooling for gas turbines used in CHP applications, which increases power production in hot ambient conditions.

Combined Heat and Power, CHP, Thermal Energy, Tech↗
DOE OSTI2024

Solid State Solar Thermochemical Fuel (SoFuel) for Long Duration Storage

Efficient thermal storage systems, when coupled with renewable energy, enable the decarbonization of numerous industrial processes requiring high temperature steam or air, and provide a path for seasonal building heating, especially for colder climates. Existing thermal storage systems face a significant challenge due to losses inherent to all high temperature systems. A viable route to long-term storage is to use thermochemical reactions to convert concentrated solar energy to a fuel that is shelf-stable and can be stored at room temperature, thus eliminating losses associated with high temperature storage. The Solid-State Solar Thermochemical Fuel (SoFuel) technology developed by Michigan State University, Oregon State University, and Mississippi State University provides reactors and processes with minimal sensible heat losses and allows storing solar energy as a solid-state fuel at room temperature for long duration. The production of SoFuel occurs within a cylindrical cavity reduction chemical reactor that captures concentrated solar radiation from a solar field. Reactive magnesium manganese oxide (Mg-Mn-O) resides within the cylindrical cavity chemical reactor and undergoes thermal reduction as the temperature exceeds 1350°C. The thermally reduced Mg-Mn-O pellets (the SoFuel) are cooled down through a recuperative process and stored within a bin until used. The SoFuel can directly supply up to 1100°C heat to an adjacent power plant for electricity generation or industrial heating. Oxidation of SoFuel pellets occurs in a counter flow reactor and supplies heat to the user for electricity generation or industrial processing, after which the fuel is returned to the concentrating solar field where it is regenerated for re-use. Both reactors can be controlled well using a variety of strategies. With the low cost of the material, its cyclability, and the possibility of using the pelletized with on-sun reactors, or with electricity that would be curtailed, this project offers a viable option of medium- and long-term thermal energy storage.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2025

Solid State Solar Thermochemical Fuel (SoFuel) for Long Duration Storage

Efficient thermal storage systems, when coupled with renewable energy, enable the decarbonization of numerous industrial processes requiring high temperature steam or air, and provide a path for seasonal building heating, especially for colder climates. Existing thermal storage systems face a significant challenge due to losses inherent to all high temperature systems. A viable route to long-term storage is to use thermochemical reactions to convert concentrated solar energy to a fuel that is shelf-stable and can be stored at room temperature, thus eliminating losses associated with high temperature storage. The Solid-State Solar Thermochemical Fuel (SoFuel) technology developed by Michigan State University, Oregon State University, and Mississippi State University provides reactors and processes with minimal sensible heat losses and allows storing solar energy as a solid-state fuel at room temperature for long duration. The production of SoFuel occurs within a cylindrical cavity reduction chemical reactor that captures concentrated solar radiation from a solar field. Reactive magnesium manganese oxide (Mg-Mn-O) resides within the cylindrical cavity chemical reactor and undergoes thermal reduction as the temperature exceeds 1350°C. The thermally reduced Mg-Mn-O pellets (the SoFuel) are cooled down through a recuperative process and stored within a bin until used. The SoFuel can directly supply up to 1100C heat to an adjacent power plant for electricity generation or industrial heating. Oxidation of SoFuel pellets occurs in a counter flow reactor and supplies heat to the user for electricity generation or industrial processing, after which the fuel is returned to the concentrating solar field where it is regenerated for re-use. Both reactors can be controlled well using a variety of strategies. With the low cost of the material, its cyclability, and the possibility of using the pelletized with on-sun reactors, or with electricity that would be curtailed, this project offers a viable option of medium- and long-term thermal energy storage.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗
DOE OSTI2021

Evaluation of Topology Optimization to Achieve Energy Savings at the Urban District Level: Preprint

Advanced district thermal energy systems have the potential to achieve significant energy savings and facilitate the integration of renewable thermal resources and waste heat, contributing to reductions in carbon emissions. Such systems, also known as fifth generation district heating and cooling (5GDHC) systems, circulate water at temperatures close to ambient, and leverage electrically-driven water-source heat pumps located at connected buildings to further temper the water. However, barriers exist to the adoption of 5GDHC systems, including the factorial growth in potential network configurations as a function of the number of considered buildings. Topology optimization, which seeks to answer the questions, “Which is the best subset of buildings, if any, to connect to a district thermal energy system, and by what network should they be connected, to minimize life cycle cost?” can accelerate the adoption of 5GDHC systems. This study is part of an effort to develop a topology optimization framework for district thermal energy systems. In this study, a heuristic for one aspect of the topology optimization problem---the use of the minimal spanning tree network to connect a given set of buildings at the least life cycle cost---is validated.

28 EE - Advanced Manufacturing Office (EE-5A)↗
DOE OSTI2022

Sensor Impact Evaluation and Verification Technical Advisory Group Meeting Minutes

This report provides the technical advisory group meeting minutes and summary of detailed discussions for future development of sensor impact evaluations and verifications. Methods for sensor configuration/deployment have critical impacts on energy-efficient building control and thermal comfort. However, traditional sensor techniques for building operation and fault detection and diagnostics (FDD) are not optimal in terms of energy efficiency and thermal comfort, and their global effects are not thoroughly investigated. In an effort to address and overcome this limitation, a 3 year project, Sensor Impact Evaluation and Verification, was proposed. The multi-laboratory team—the US Department of Energy’s Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL), Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL), and the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL)—is conducting early-stage R&D to provide technical supports and guidelines for sensor design in building/HVAC systems to optimize building energy use, FDD, thermal comfort, and grid efficiency. The overall goal of this project is to develop a framework that enables quantitative evaluation of the impact of sensors on building HVAC control, FDD, and consequently, building energy efficiency and thermal comfort.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗
DOE OSTI2022

Accelerating Optimal Integration of Energy Efficiency Strategies with Industrialized Modular Construction: Preprint

The National Renewable Energy Laboratory's (NREL's) Industrialized Construction Innovation team first introduced the Industrialized Construction Assessment Framework to achieve affordable, net-zero energy (NZE) modular multifamily buildings in the 2020 ACEEE paper "Integrating Energy Efficiency Strategies with Industrialized Construction for our Clean Energy Future." Since then, NREL has continued to drive the ambitious plan to accelerate optimal integration of energy efficiency strategies during industrialized construction with little or no additional cost, labor, and production time. This follow-on paper introduces the Energy in Modular (EMOD) buildings method and presents NREL's research efforts over the last two years in collaboration with industry, including affordable housing partners. NREL has developed an idealized NZE modular multifamily building design that incorporates five energy efficiency strategies well suited for industrialized construction in factories: (1) envelope thermal control, (2) envelope infiltration control, (3) mechanical, electrical, and plumbing systems, (4) smart controls, and (5) solar plus storage. This paper highlights results from leveraging design for manufacturing and assembly principles, testing, and validation pilots with factory partners; demonstrating pod prototypes in test stand at NREL; and performing simulations. Overall, these research efforts address barriers to whole-building system integration, such as poor installation quality of thermal and air barriers; lack of unitized systems for space conditioning, energy recovery and ventilation, and water heating; problematic on-site installation, commissioning, and configuration of controls; and lack of cost-effective integration for grid-friendly design and emerging technologies. Conclusively, the paper delineates next steps for future work with NREL's partners toward developing a transformational pathway for our clean energy future.

affordable housing↗
DOE OSTI2023

Online transfer learning strategy for enhancing the scalability and deployment of deep reinforcement learning control in smart buildings

In recent years, advanced control strategies based on Deep Reinforcement Learning (DRL) proved to be effective in optimizing the management of integrated energy systems in buildings, reducing energy costs and improving indoor comfort conditions when compared to traditional reactive controllers. However, the scalability and implementation of DRL controllers are still limited since they require a considerable amount of time before converging to a near-optimal solution. This issue is currently addressed in literature through the offline pre-training of the DRL agent. However this solution results in two main critical issues: (1) the need to develop a building surrogate model to perform the training task, and (2) the need to perform a fine-tuning process over several training episodes to obtain a near-optimal control policy. In this context, this paper introduces an Online Transfer Learning (OTL) strategy that exploits two knowledge-sharing techniques, weight-initialization and imitation learning, to transfer a DRL control policy from a source office building to various target buildings in a simulation environment coupling EnergyPlus and Python. A DRL controller based on discrete Soft Actor–Critic (SAC) is trained on the source building to manage the operation of a cooling system consisting of a chiller and a thermal storage. Several target buildings are defined to benchmark the performance of the OTL strategy with that of a Rule-Based Controller (RBC) and two DRL-based control strategies, deployed in offline and online fashion. The strategy adopted for OTL emulates the real world implementation with a simulation process by implementing the transferred DRL agent for a single episode in the target buildings. Target buildings have the same geometrical features and are served by the same energy system as the source building, but differ in terms of weather conditions, electricity price schedules, occupancy patterns, and building envelope efficiency levels. The results show that the OTL strategy can reduce the cumulated sum of temperature violations on average by 50% and 80% respectively when compared to RBC and online DRL while enhancing the energy system operation with electricity cost savings ranging between 20% and 40%. Furthermore, the OTL agent performs slightly worse than the offline DRL controller but it does not require any modeling effort and can be implemented directly on target buildings emulating a real-world implementation.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗
DOE OSTI2022

Experimental Evaluation of Thermal Storage Performance of a Dual-Purpose Underground Thermal Battery

A geothermal heat pump (GHP) system is an energy-efficient building heating and cooling technology with great potential for reducing energy consumption and decarbonization. However, applications of GHP are still limited due to the high cost, of which 30% is related to the cost of installing the conventional vertical bore ground heat exchangers, which are usually installed in boreholes 60 meters deep. A dual-purpose underground thermal battery (DPUTB) has been developed to offer a low-cost ground heat exchanger with a built-in thermal storage capacity. The DPUTB innovatively integrates a shallow-bore ground heat exchanger (the outer tank), which can be installed in a borehole less than 6 m deep, with thermal energy storage (TES) (the inner tank). DPUTB has the potential to reduce the cost of a ground source heat pump system while allowing shifting the electric demand of the building served by the GHP system from peak to off-peak hours of the electric grid by charging and discharging the thermal storage. A lab-scale (1:125 in volume) DPUTB prototype was built. Phase change material (PCM) was added to increase the thermal storage capacity and maintain the supply water temperature from the TES within the desired range for direct cooling operation during the discharge period. As PCMs are critical to the TES performance of the DPUTB, this study compared the influence of different PCMs (including salt hydrate and organic PCMs) on the discharge performance of the DPUTB. The thermal State of Charge (SoC) of the DPUTB was used to compare the performance resulting from using different PCMs. Test results indicate that the organic PCM (Methyl Laurate) outperforms salt-hydrate PCMs due to a lower melting temperature and a narrower melting temperature range during the phase change process. The results of this study provide a guide for PCM selection and the optimal design of DPUTB.

Wang, Lingshi↗
DOE OSTI2024

Reactive transport modeling of the Aquifer Thermal Energy Storage (ATES) system at Stockton University, New Jersey during seasonal operations

Hydrogeochemical processes associated with Aquifer Thermal Energy Storage (ATES) operations can often impact the system performance owing to mineral precipitation either at the wellbore or in the aquifer owing to changes in temperature and fluid disequilibria. Although failure of ATES systems due to mineral precipitation ("fouling") is common, predictive reactive-transport models have rarely been applied to plan their design and operation. Here, the objective of this study is to develop a reactive-transport model by coupling thermal, hydrological, and chemical (THC) processes to evaluate effects of introduced atmospheric oxygen on water chemistry, mineral precipitation/dissolution, porosity, and permeability changes associated with an ATES system at Stockton University (New Jersey, USA). The THC model builds on a Thermal-Hydrological-Mechanical (THM) model of the site that evaluated system failure owing to possible fracturing in the caprock or around the wellbore. The causes of the system failure are not known – potential causes include hydraulic fracturing owing to elevated pump pressures that took place, a flow pathway created by one of the boreholes, or a pre-existing natural hydrologic connection between the upper unconfined aquifer and the ATES aquifer, any of which could have led to oxygenated water entering the reservoir and causing the observed Fe-oxide fouling on well screens. The THC model is used to evaluate some of the hypotheses and observations regarding system failure owing to geochemical processes. The reactive-transport code TOUGHREACT V4 was used to model the THC processes during seasonal heating and cooling operations at the Stockton ATES site over 6 years of operation. In the THC simulations, the primary effects on geochemistry were observed when the injection water is saturated with atmospheric oxygen. Simulations show greater precipitation of goethite near the cold wells as compared to the warm wells. Although volume fractions of Fe-hydroxides were relatively small, the model was aimed at processes in the aquifer at the scale of meters and larger rather than at the scale of mm or cm (i.e., a well screen). Kaolinite is the dominant precipitating phase, also around the cold wells. Illite dissolves near the cold wells and precipitates near the warm wells. There is a net decrease in the porosity near the cold wells and increase near the warm wells, although a slight amount of thermal contraction near the cold wells and expansion near the warm wells is responsible for a significant proportion of the porosity change. Owing to the coarse discretization of the numerical grid near the wells (compared to the screen thickness) the magnitude of permeability changes at the wellbore are likely underestimated. The reactive transport model in this study can be used for characterization of aquifers, optimizing the operational parameters (temperature, pressure, pH etc.), and planning of mitigation strategies for ATES systems.

15 GEOTHERMAL ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2024

Novel PCM-based fin and tube heat exchanger system for building heating and cooling applications

In the United States, the building sector accounts for 40% of all energy use, and buildings are responsible for more than two-thirds of electricity consumption. Buildings remain the major driver of energy-related carbon emissions, and such emissions are projected to increase in the years ahead because of urbanization and population growth. To accomplish the low carbon energy goal in the building sector, phase change material (PCM)–based thermal energy storage (TES) is increasingly being adopted because it offers several advantages, such as reducing building peak load and energy consumption, enabling large scale deployment of renewables, and improving grid stability. The integration of TES with thermally anisotropic building envelopes (TABEs) is a promising solution because, TABE can redirect natural thermal energy from a building using hydronic loops to TES, and the stored energy can be used later for heating and cooling applications. In this study, we experimentally investigate the thermal performance of a novel fin-tube heat exchanger TES system designed for potential integration with a TABE. An experimental rig for a 5-gal PCM fin-tube heat exchanger system with water as the heat transfer medium is described which records temperatures at the heated and cooled boundaries of the system. Experimental observations provide insight into the role a TES system can play in offsetting a building’s heating and cooling demand and also offer a means to characterize the performance of PCMs for building applications. The scale and study presented in this work will help in the design of future thermal storage systems optimized for storage capacity while also accounting for overall system costs for building applications.

Tamraparni, Achutha↗
DOE OSTI2024

Salt Hydrate Eutectic Thermal Energy Storage for Building Thermal Regulation (Final Technical Report)

Thermal energy storage is anticipated to play an important role in developing the power grid of the future - a power grid that meets increasing demands of users, is resistant to disruptions, but also allows for greater penetration of renewable resources. Specifically, thermal energy storage materials can be integrated into HVAC systems and building envelopes, where they can be used to shift power demands for building climate control from periods of peak demand to periods of low demand. Phase change materials (PCMs) are compelling as low-cost, high energy density thermal energy storage materials for building thermal management. However, there is a lack of high performance low-cost PCMs within the specific temperature ranges which would most effectively allow for power load shifting. Inorganic salt hydrates represent a promising class of PCMs, but their inherent limitations cause them to be currently unavailable for reliable building applications. The overarching goals of this research effort are to: 1) Discover low-cost, high volumetric density salt hydrate eutectic PCMs to store low-quality heat (10 to 40 °C); 2) Introduce a high thermal conductivity matrix to reduce the time constant for energy storage to ~0.1 to 1 hr, incorporate nucleation catalysts to decrease undercooling, and utilize microencapsulation and shape stabilization approaches, minimizing moisture loss/gain, mitigating phase separation, and maintaining stable melting behavior over the lifetime of the compounds; 3) Evaluate the impact these systems have on peak load shifting, and the potential for overall energy savings under different climatic scenarios and building configurations. These goals will be achieved by an integrated research program consisting of six cohesive research subtasks: 1) Materials discovery of eutectic salt hydrate PCMs by using computationally predicted thermodynamic equilibria, coupled with high-throughput experimental validation, 2) Rapid experimental screening of nucleation catalysts identified through robust computational databases, 3) Embedding salt hydrate PCM into a low cost and scalable high conductivity matrix, 4) Microencapsulation of salt hydrate microspheres using hybrid inorganic-polymer microencapsulation approach, 5) Shape stabilization by thermoreversible salt hydrate salogels, and 6) Analysis of end-use using thermal simulations, and characterization of mock-up energy storage finished components.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗
DOE OSTI2022

Model predictive control of heating, ventilation, and air conditioning (HVAC) systems: A state-of-the-art review

Due to the fast advancement of communication and information technology, intelligent buildings have garnered great interest. These buildings can forecast weather, ambient temperature, and sun irradiation and can modify heating, ventilation, and air conditioning (HVAC) operations appropriately, based on current and previous data. This change is intended to reduce HVAC system energy usage while maintaining an appropriate degree of thermal comfort and indoor air quality. Since its inception, model predictive control (MPC) has been one of the prospective solutions for HVAC management systems to reduce both costs and energy usage. Additionally, MPC is becoming increasingly practical as the processing capacity of building automation systems increases and a large quantity of monitored building data becomes available. MPC also provides the potential to improve the energy efficiency of HVAC systems via its capacity to consider limitations, to predict disruptions, and to factor in multiple competing goals such as interior thermal comfort and building energy consumption. Although substantial research has been conducted on MPC in building HVAC systems, there is a shortage of critical reviews and a lack of a comprehensive framework that formulates and defines the applications. Here, this article provides a comprehensive state-of-the-art overview of MPC in HVAC systems. Detailed discussions of modeling approaches and optimization algorithms are included. Numerous design aspects such as prediction horizon, occupancy behavior, building type, and cost function, that impact MPC performance are discussed in detail. The technical characteristics, advantages, and disadvantages of various types of modeling software are discussed. The primary objective of this work is to highlight critical design characteristics for the MPC control scheme and to give improved suggestions for future research. Moreover, numerous prospective scenarios have been suggested that might provide future research direction.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗
DOE OSTI2023

Validation and Verification of TEDS Facility HYBRID Modeling

The HYBRID modeling repository is an in-house developed library of models for selected integrated energy systems (IES) modelling. HYBRID models have been developed since 2015 to describe the physical operation of tightly coupled thermal systems including power generators, thermal transport systems, thermal storage, thermal-to-electric conversion systems, and other thermal applications. Here, validation and verification (V&V) capabilities are demonstrated using the Thermal Energy Distribution System (TEDS) at INL. Building upon prior work, the TEDS model has been updated and verified so that it better represents the installed system configuration and the operating control system. The model control system was changed to allow replication of actual experimental procedures. Experimental operations focusing primarily on thermocline tank performance were devised and performed. Several anomalies were found in the operation data of the experiment facility. V&V activities calibrating a selected input parameter are demonstrated on a single component as well as with a single parameter within the thermocline. Calibrating is then demonstrated on multiple components and a multi-parameter metric for the entire system. The validation methodology is successfully applied to validate the model with experimental data. It is also used to confirm a hypothesis behind one of the anomalies in experimental performance.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗
DOE OSTI2023

Optimizing mixed cool thermal storage systems across a connected community

A high level of electric demand flexibility must be integrated into our building infrastructure to enable greater renewable energy penetration in the grid. In the U.S., 9% of electricity generated is used to cool buildings in a periodic manner, making this end-use an ideal target for active management through cool thermal energy storage (CTES) technologies. Historic uses for CTES are designed around central chilled water plants, but these systems cool less than 25% of U.S. commercial floorspace. Emerging technologies are under development to serve the many smaller distributed cooling systems, such as rooftop units (RTUs), and have the potential to add CTES to an additional 66% of cooled commercial floorspace. However, these unitary thermal storage systems (UTSS) lack the modeling and analysis tools to evaluate them in the future interactive grid context. Here, this study develops the modeling and optimization tools necessary to simultaneously examine central and distributed ice storage systems within the multi-building, connected community context. An integrated simulation-optimization workflow is created to allow for rapid customized analysis. Results demonstrate the energy and flexibility tradeoffs of various implementations.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗
DOE OSTI2026

Consumer safety-oriented scheduling of rotating power outages during heat waves

Extreme heat events have widespread effects on power systems, reducing available generation capacity, limiting transmission capabilities, and causing unusual demand patterns on the consumer side. As these combined effects expose bulk transmission systems to potential large-scale blackouts, utilities may be required to schedule and apply rotating outages, by temporarily and alternately disconnecting distribution substations to reduce overload. However, utilities lack mechanisms to inform these events, exacerbating the negative effects of heat waves on affected communities. This paper introduces a novel framework for scheduling rotating outages during heat waves while considering impacts on consumers’ safety. Instead of random sequential load shedding, we propose a methodology to rotate power outages considering a metric that quantifies the indoor overheating risk of groups of consumers during a power outage. The overheating risk is derived from a detailed building simulation using CityBES, where the buildings are modeled based on available data—use type, year built, floor area, number of stories, location—while presence of air conditioning and occupancy are calibrated from smart meter data. Based on the metric, an algorithm to schedule the rotating outages is applied to prioritize feeders for disconnection at each hour according to their overheating risk to meet a utility load reduction target. Applied to two substations and seven feeders in the Portland General Electric territory, the results show that this approach effectively leads to the lowest overheating risk during the resulting outage schedules, with an average 10.1% lower overheating compared to uninformed schedules.

Building thermal simulation↗
DOE OSTI2026

Physics vs structure: A systematic benchmark of learning strategies for multi-zone building thermal dynamics

Recent advances in physics-informed and data-driven machine learning promise improved thermal models for advanced building control, yet there is limited quantitative evidence on when added physics structure and architectural complexity are beneficial. Here, this work presents a systematic benchmark of five representative system identification methods for modeling multi-zone building thermal dynamics: linear state-space models, multi-layer perceptrons, neural state-space models, neural ordinary differential equations, and physically-consistent neural networks. The methods are evaluated across multiple data regimes and zone coupling strategies. Using a high-fidelity multi-zone commercial building emulator, we examine short-term and long-term prediction accuracy, computational efficiency, and ease of development. Our results reveal critical trade-offs between prediction performance, model complexity, and physical consistency. We demonstrate that decoupled, nonlinear black-box models consistently outperform coupled physics-constrained architectures in both predictive accuracy and out-of-distribution robustness in majority of the test cases for the building type considered in the study. Our findings quantify the cost of complexity in building thermal modeling and provide concrete, actionable, scenario-based guidelines for selecting model classes for control-oriented applications.

Building thermal modeling↗