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NASA NTRS2015

Introduction The Role of the Agricultural Model Intercomparison and Improvement Project

Climate impacts on agriculture are of increasing concern in both the scientific and policy communities because of the need to ensure food security for a growing population. A special challenge is posed by the changes in the frequency and intensity of heat-waves, droughts, and episodic rainstorms already underway in many parts of the world. Changes in production are directly linked to such variations in temperature and precipitation during the growing season, and often to offseason changes in weather affecting soil-water storage and availability to crops. This is not an isolated problem but one of both global and regional importance, because of impacts on the livelihoods of smallholder farmers as well as consequences for the world food trade system. This two-part set the Agricultural Model Intercomparison and Improvement Project (AgMIP): Integrated Crop and Economic Assessments is the first to be entirely devoted to AgMIP (www.agmip.org). AgMIP is a major international research program focused on climate change and agriculture. The goal of the two parts is to advance the field by providing detailed information on new simulation techniques and assessments being conducted by this program. It presents information about new methods of global and regional integrated assessment, results from agricultural regions, and adaptation strategies for maintaining food security under changing climate conditions.

security↗
NASA NTRS2012

Integrating NASA Satellite Data Into USDA World Agricultural Outlook Board Decision Making Environment To Improve Agricultural Estimates

The USDA World Agricultural Outlook Board (WAOB) is responsible for monitoring weather and climate impacts on domestic and foreign crop development. One of WAOB's primary goals is to determine the net cumulative effect of weather and climate anomalies on final crop yields. To this end, a broad array of information is consulted. The resulting agricultural weather assessments are published in the Weekly Weather and Crop Bulletin, to keep farmers, policy makers, and commercial agricultural interests informed of weather and climate impacts on agriculture. The goal of the current project is to improve WAOB estimates by integrating NASA satellite precipitation and soil moisture observations into WAOB's decision making environment. Precipitation (Level 3 gridded) is from the TRMM Multi-satellite Precipitation Analysis (TMPA). Soil moisture (Level 2 swath and Level 3 gridded) is generated by the Land Parameter Retrieval Model (LPRM) and operationally produced by the NASA Goddard Earth Sciences Data and Information Services Center (GBS DISC). A root zone soil moisture (RZSM) product is also generated, via assimilation of the Level 3 LPRM data by a land surface model (part of a related project). Data services to be available for these products include GeoTIFF, GDS (GrADS Data Server), WMS (Web Map Service), WCS (Web Coverage Service), and NASA Giovanni. Project benchmarking is based on retrospective analyses of WAOB analog year comparisons. The latter are between a given year and historical years with similar weather patterns and estimated crop yields. An analog index (AI) was developed to introduce a more rigorous, statistical approach for identifying analog years. Results thus far show that crop yield estimates derived from TMPA precipitation data are closer to measured yields than are estimates derived from surface-based precipitation measurements. Work is continuing to include LPRM surface soil moisture data and model-assimilated RZSM.

Teng, William↗
NASA NTRS2012

Precipitation from Space: Advancing Earth System Science

Of the three primary sources of spatially contiguous precipitation observations (surface networks, ground-based radar, and satellite-based radar/radiometers), only the last is a viable source over ocean and much of the Earth's land. As recently as 15 years ago, users needing quantitative detail of precipitation on anything under a monthly time scale relied upon products derived from geostationary satellite thermal infrared (IR) indices. The Special Sensor Microwave Imager (SSMI) passive microwave (PMW) imagers originated in 1987 and continue today with the SSMI sounder (SSMIS) sensor. The fortunate longevity of the joint National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) and Japan Aerospace Exploration Agency (JAXA) Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) is providing the environmental science community a nearly unbroken data record (as of April 2012, over 14 years) of tropical and sub-tropical precipitation processes. TRMM was originally conceived in the mid-1980s as a climate mission with relatively modest goals, including monthly averaged precipitation. TRMM data were quickly exploited for model data assimilation and, beginning in 1999 with the availability of near real time data, for tropical cyclone warnings. To overcome the intermittently spaced revisit from these and other low Earth-orbiting satellites, many methods to merge PMW-based precipitation data and geostationary satellite observations have been developed, such as the TRMM Multisatellite Precipitation Product and the Climate Prediction Center (CPC) morphing method (CMORPH. The purpose of this article is not to provide a survey or assessment of these and other satellite-based precipitation datasets, which are well summarized in several recent articles. Rather, the intent is to demonstrate how the availability and continuity of satellite-based precipitation data records is transforming the ways that scientific and societal issues related to precipitation are addressed, in ways that would not be otherwise possible. These developments have taken place in parallel with the growth of an increasingly interconnected scientific environment. Scientists from different disciplines can easily interact with each other via information and materials they encounter online, and collaborate remotely without ever meeting each other in person. Likewise, these precipitation datasets are quickly and easily available via various data portals and are widely used. Within the framework of the NASA/JAXA Global Precipitation Measurement (GPM mission, these applications will become increasingly interconnected. We emphasize that precipitation observations by themselves provide an incomplete picture of the state of the atmosphere. For example, it is unlikely that a richer understanding of the global water cycle will be possible by standalone missions and algorithms, but must also involve some component of data, where model analyses of the physical state are constrained alongside multiple observations (e.g., precipitation, evaporation, radiation). The next section provides examples extracted from the many applications that use various high-resolution precipitation products. The final section summarizes the future system for global precipitation processing.

Kucera, Paul A.↗
NASA NTRS2022

What Does Global Land Climate Look Like at 2°C Warming?

Constraining an increase in global mean temperature below 2°C compared to pre-industrial levels is critical to limiting dangerous and cascading impacts of anthropogenic climate change. Understanding future climatic changes and their spatial heterogeneity at 2°C warming is thus important for policy makers to prepare actionable adaptation and mitigation plans by identifying where and to what extent lives and livelihoods will be impacted. This study uses the recently released NASA Earth eXchange Global Daily Downscaled Projections (NEX-GDDP) CMIP6 data to provide a broad overview of projected changes in six key climate variables and two climate impact indicators at a time when warming exceeds 2°C. Analysis of global mean temperature changes indicates the 2040s as the decade when most CMIP6 models reach 2°C warming with respect to a pre-industrial period (1850–1900). During the 2040s, we find that global mean temperature, precipitation, relative humidity, downwelling shortwave and longwave radiation, and wind speed over land under the high emission scenario are projected to change by +2.8°C, +22.4 mm/year, −0.73%, −2.23 , +15.9 W/m 2 , and −0.04 m/s, respectively. Many of the future changes are expected to exacerbate climate impacts including heat stress and fire danger. Our analysis shows geographic patterns of policy-relevant climatic changes, as parts of the globe will experience significant climate impacts even if the goal to keep warming below 2°C goal is achieved. Our results highlight the urgent need for further studies focused on identifying key hotspots and advancing region-specific actionable adaptation and mitigation plans.

GDDP↗
NASA NTRS1999

Corals from Space

The goal of this research is to monitor the health and vigor of coral reef ecosystems, and their sensitivity to natural and anthropogenic climate changes. To achieve these lofty goals, this research is investigating the feasibility of using spaceborne high-resolution spectrometers (on the US Landsat, French Systeme Probatoire pour l'Observation de la Terre [SPOT] and/or the Indian Resources Satellite [IRS 1C & 1D] spacecraft) to first map the aerial extent of coral reef systems, and second separate the amount of particular corals. If this is successful, we could potentially provide a quantum leap in our understanding of coral reef systems, as well as provide much needed baseline data to measure future changes in global coral reef ecosystems. In collaboration with Tomas Tomascik, Yann Morel, and other colleagues, a series of experiments were planned to coordinate in situ coral observations, high-resolution spaceborne imagery (from Landsat, SPOT, and, possibly, IRS IC spacecraft), and NASA Space Shuttle photographs and digital images. Our eventual goal is to develop "coral health algorithms" that can be used to assess time series of imagery collected from satellite sensors (Landsat since 1972, SPOT since 1986) in concert with in situ observations. The bad news from last year was that from 1997 to mid- 1998, the extreme cloudiness over southeast Asia due to prolonged smoke from El Nino-related fires and the economic chaos in this region frustrated both our space and reef-based data collection activities. When this volatile situation stabilizes, we will restart these activities. The good news was that in collaboration with Al Strong at the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) we had an exciting year operationally using the NOAA's Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometer sensor derived sea surface temperature products to warn of coral "bleaching" at many locations throughout the tropics. Data from NOAA's satellites showed that during the El Nino of 1997 and the first half of 1998, more ocean area in the tropics experienced exceptionally high sea surface temperatures, or "hot spots," than have been observed in any fall year since the El Nino of 1982. From January to July, the coral bleaching events were concentrated in the Southern Hemisphere (during its warm season). Since July 1998, the reports of extensive coral bleaching have again spread into regions of the Northern Hemisphere following abnormally high sea surface temperatures, especially around the Philippines and throughout the Caribbean Basin, Bahamas, Bermuda and Florida Keys. These El Nino induced events clearly demonstrated that corals are the "canaries of the marine ecosystem," highly sensitive to short-term natural climate events (El Nino), and should be monitored as measures of longer-term environmental and climate change. Additional information is contained in the original.

Patzert, William C.↗
NASA NTRS2012

Instrumentation and First Results of the Reflected Solar Demonstration System for the Climate Absolute Radiance and Refractivity Observatory

The Climate Absolute Radiance and Refractivity Observatory (CLARREO) mission key goals include enabling observation of high accuracy long-term climate change trends, use of these observations to test and improve climate forecasts, and calibration of operational and research sensors. The spaceborne instrument suites include a reflected solar spectroradiometer, emitted infrared spectroradiometer, and radio occultation receivers. The requirement for the RS instrument is that derived reflectance must be traceable to Sl standards with an absolute uncertainty of <0.3% and the error budget that achieves this requirement is described in previo1L5 work. This work describes the Solar/Lunar Absolute Reflectance Imaging Spectroradiometer (SOLARIS), a calibration demonstration system for RS instrument, and presents initial calibration and characterization methods and results. SOLARIS is an Offner spectrometer with two separate focal planes each with its own entrance aperture and grating covering spectral ranges of 320-640, 600-2300 nm over a full field-of-view of 10 degrees with 0.27 milliradian sampling. Results from laboratory measurements including use of integrating spheres, transfer radiometers and spectral standards combined with field-based solar and lunar acquisitions are presented. These results will be used to assess the accuracy and repeatability of the radiometric and spectral characteristics of SOLARIS, which will be presented against the sensor-level requirements addressed in the CLARREO RS instrument error budget.

McCorkel, Joel↗
NASA NTRS2001

A Study of the Role of Clouds in the Relationship Between Land Use/Land Cover and the Climate and Air Quality of the Atlanta Area

The goal of Project ATLANTA is to derive a better scientific understanding of how land cover changes associated with urbanization affect climate and air quality. In this project the role that clouds play in this relationship was studied. Through GOES satellite observations and RAMS modeling of the Atlanta area, we found that in Atlanta (1) clouds are more frequent than in the surrounding rural areas; (2) clouds cool the surface by shading and thus tend to counteract the warming effect of urbanization; (3) clouds reflect sunlight, which might other wise be used to produce ozone; and (4) clouds decrease biogenic emission of ozone precursors, and they probably decrease ozone concentration. We also found that mesoscale modeling of clouds, especially of small, summertime clouds, needs to be improved and that coupled mesoscale and air quality models are needed to completely understand the mediating role that clouds play in the relationship between land use/land cover change and the climate and air quality of Atlanta. It is strongly recommended that more cities be studied to strengthen and extend these results.

Kidder, Stanley Q.↗
NASA NTRS1997

A Study of the Role of Clouds in the Relationship Between Land Use/Land Cover and the Climate and Air Quality of the Atlanta Area

The goal of Project ATLANTA is to derive a better scientific understanding of how land cover changes associated with urbanization affect local and regional climate and air quality. Clouds play a significant role in this relationship. Using GOES images, we found that in a 63-day period (5 July-5 September 1996) there were zero days which were clear for the entire daylight period. Days which are cloud-free in the morning become partly cloudy with small cumulus clouds in the afternoon in response to solar heating. This result casts doubt on the applicability of California-style air quality models which run in perpetual clear skies. Days which are clear in the morning have higher ozone than those which are cloudy in the morning. Using the RAMS model, we found that urbanization increases the skin surface temperature by about 1.0-1.5 C on average under cloudy conditions, with an extreme of +3.5 C. Clouds cool the surface due to their shading effect by 1.5-2.0 C on average, with an extreme of 5.0 C. RAMS simulates well the building stage of the cumulus cloud field, but does poorly in the decaying phase. Next year's work: doing a detailed cloud climatology and developing improved RAMS cloud simulations.

Kidder, Stanley Q.↗
NASA NTRS1990

Technique for assessing vegetation-induced moisture flux, with implications for global climate modeling

The time between storms, the duration of storms, and the storm depths are studied in relation to vegetation controls on the disposition of rainfall. It is proposed that understanding the movement of water between the vegetation and soil (including evapotranspiration and infiltration) will be the gateway for modeling atmospheric flux and improving global climate models. The overall objective goal of the proposed research effort is to develop a field/lab methodology which will provide a better understanding of vegetation induced water movement. Water flow initiated from stem flow of wooded slopes feeds soil water pathways, which in turn feed the deeper ground water system and give rise to stream response. This is balanced by more water inputs via throughfall, where it percolates the soil matrix and allows much greater rates of evapotranspiration and atmospheric/soil moisture flux. This research study seeks to gain an understanding of the effect of vegetation on soil moisture, and the effect of this differential wetting on resulting evapotranspiration and atmospheric flux.

Macari, Emir Jose↗
NASA NTRS2005

Miniature Instrumentation for SIPR (Subsurface Ice PRobe)

Ice coring has proved to be a valuable scientific tool for determining climate history on Earth. The goal of the SIPR project is to develop a simple extraterrestrial ice sampling method of comparable value to coring. The SIPR probe works by melting its way through glacial ice, pumping the melt water to the surface for analysis as it descends hundreds of meters. The specific geometry of the probe, along with size and power constraints, requires creative diagnostic instrumentation. A thin, vertically strung heated filament will provide continuous-level monitoring of water in down-hole containers. The filament has an appreciable temperature coefficient to resistance (TCR), so as water cools the wire, its resistance decreases. At a constant electrical current, the voltage across the filament varies linearly with water level.

Ostmo, Karl P.↗
NASA NTRS1997

Rovers in the U.S. Mars Exploration Program

The U.S. Mars Exploration Program comprises at least on Discovery mission (Mars Pathfinder), and Mars Surveyor Program, plus sample return missions and other missions to prepare for possible human expeditions to Mars. The original themes of the Mars Surveyor Program (which are still the official program goals) are to understand Life, Climate and Resources on Mars, with these themes tied together by the common thread of Water. The ability to move about the Martian surface is key to the Mars Exploration Program. This paper addresses the overall Mars Exploration Program strategy, with an emphasis of the role of rovers in the program. Specifically, the need for improvements in rover performance is addressed.

Mars Global Surveyor MGS martian surface cost-cons↗
NASA NTRS2016

Cupid's Arrow: An Innovative Nanosat to Sample Venus' Upper Atmosphere

In NASA's Discovery 2014 AO, the opportunity to propose a Technology Demonstration Opportunity (TDO) to enhance the primary mission was specified. For the Venus Emissivity, Radio Science, InSAR, Topography, and Spectroscopy (VERITAS) mission, we elected to include the Cupid's Arrow nanosat TDO to sample and measure the abundances of noble gases and their isotopic ratios in Venus's upper atmosphere below the homopause. This paper will provide a basic overview of the VERITAS mission, with a focus on the Cupid's Arrow concept including a description of the mission, spacecraft design, and JPL's quadrupole ion trap mass spectrometer (QITMS) instrument specifications and design. In previous planetary entry probe mission designs, particularly at Venus, engineers w ere focused on entry and descent. A landed probe was also proposed for the New Frontiers SAGE mission. For Cupid's Arrow, the nanosat is designed to skim through the upper atmosphere, just below the homopause, in order to sample the atmosphere, perform the analysis, and then exit the atmosphere to transmit its data to the orbiting VERITAS spacecraft. Cupid's Arrow is a compelling addition to the VERITAS geology mission. A key missing link in our understanding of Venus' evolution is the noble gas abundances and their isotopic ratios. Not since Pioneer Venus have these measurements been made in the Venus atmosphere and never in the upper atmosphere, just below the homopause, to the degree of accuracy that will be accomplished by VERITAS' Cupid's Arrow nanosat.Such measurements were ranked as the number 1 investigation of the number 1 objective of the goal "Atmospheric Formation, Evolution, and Climate History ".

Discovery↗
NASA NTRS2018

Bringing Climate Scientist's Tools into Classrooms to Improve Conceptual Understandings

Efforts to address anthropogenic global climate change (AGCC) require public understanding of Earth and climate science. To meet this need, educational reforms and prominent scientists have called for instructional approaches that teach students how climate scientists examine AGCC. Yet, only a few educational studies have reported clear empirical results on what instructional approaches and climate education technologies best accomplish this goal. This manuscript presents detailed analysis and statistically significant results on the educational impact pre to post of students learning to use a National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) global climate model (GCM). This series of case studies demonstrates that differing instructional approaches and climate education technologies result in differing levels of understanding of AGCC and ability to engage with policies addressing it. Students who learned the scientific process of climate modeling scored significantly higher pre to post on exams (quantitatively) and gained more complete conceptual understandings of the issue (qualitatively). Yet, teaching students to conduct research with complex technology can be difficult. This study also found lecture-based learning better improved recall of facts about GCMs tested by multiple-choice questions. Our findings indicate what educational systems and related technologies might provide the public with the conceptual understandings necessary to engage in the political debate over AGCC.

Public understanding↗
NASA NTRS2022

A Strategic Lens on Quantum Sensing for Space Applications

As classical technologies approach their theoretical power limits, quantum technologies, including computing, communications, and sensing, are often credited as the next science and engineering revolution. Quantum sensors are the basis of quantum computing and communications technologies, but also have unique uses for security, medical, and space-related applications. Regarding NASA’s agency goals, quantum sensing can improve climate change monitoring, enable navigations systems for deep space, and enhance fundamental astrophysics research. This report outlines the findings from an independent intern project on the ways NASA can strategically invest in quantum sensing technologies. This report also outlines policy barriers to developing the technology, largely related to communication difficulties, unfamiliarity with quantum, and lengthy approval processes. The information on tools and challenges relevant to quantum technology was gathered from literature reviews, online research, and discussions with NASA individuals. This report concludes with strategic recommendations to answer the question: what policies should NASA implement to effectively research and develop quantum sensing technologies?

Holland Frieling↗
NASA NTRS1987

The correspondence of surface climate parameters with satellite and terrain data

One of the goals of the research was to develop a ground sampling stragegy for calibrating remotely sensed measurements of surface climate parameters. The initial sampling strategy involved the stratification of the terrain based on important ancillary surface variables such as slope, exposure, insolation, geology, drainage, fire history, etc. For a spatially heterogeneous population, sampling error is reduced and efficiency increased by stratification of the landscape into more homogeneous sub-areas and by employing periodic random spacing of samples. These concepts were applied in the initial stratification of the study site for the purpose of locating and allocating instrumentation.

Dozier, Jeff↗
NASA NTRS1998

Modeling and Analysis of Global and Regional Climate Change in Relation to Atmospheric Hydrologic Processes

The goal of this research is the continued development and application of global isentropic modeling and analysis capabilities to describe hydrologic processes and energy exchange in the climate system, and discern regional climate change. This work involves a combination of modeling and analysis efforts involving 4DDA datasets and simulations from the University of Wisconsin (UW) hybrid isentropic-sigma (theta-sigma) coordinate model and the GEOS GCM.

Johnson, Donald R.↗
NASA NTRS1993

Research into the influence of spatial variability and scale on the parameterization of hydrological processes

The objectives of the research were as follows: (1) Extend the Representative Elementary Area (RE) concept, first proposed and developed in Wood et al, (1988), to the water balance fluxes of the interstorm period (redistribution, evapotranspiration and baseflow) necessary for the analysis of long-term water balance processes. (2) Derive spatially averaged water balance model equations for spatially variable soil, topography and vegetation, over A RANGE OF CLIMATES. This is a necessary step in our goal to derive consistent hydrologic results up to GCM grid scales necessary for global climate modeling. (3) Apply the above macroscale water balance equations with remotely sensed data and begin to explore the feasibility of parameterizing the water balance constitutive equations at GCM grid scale.

Wood, Eric F.↗
NASA NTRS2012

The Agricultural Model Intercomparison and Improvement Project (AgMIP): Protocols and Pilot Studies

The Agricultural Model Intercomparison and Improvement Project (AgMIP) is a major international effort linking the climate, crop, and economic modeling communities with cutting-edge information technology to produce improved crop and economic models and the next generation of climate impact projections for the agricultural sector. The goals of AgMIP are to improve substantially the characterization of world food security due to climate change and to enhance adaptation capacity in both developing and developed countries. Analyses of the agricultural impacts of climate variability and change require a transdisciplinary effort to consistently link state-of-the-art climate scenarios to crop and economic models. Crop model outputs are aggregated as inputs to regional and global economic models to determine regional vulnerabilities, changes in comparative advantage, price effects, and potential adaptation strategies in the agricultural sector. Climate, Crop Modeling, Economics, and Information Technology Team Protocols are presented to guide coordinated climate, crop modeling, economics, and information technology research activities around the world, along with AgMIP Cross-Cutting Themes that address uncertainty, aggregation and scaling, and the development of Representative Agricultural Pathways (RAPs) to enable testing of climate change adaptations in the context of other regional and global trends. The organization of research activities by geographic region and specific crops is described, along with project milestones. Pilot results demonstrate AgMIP's role in assessing climate impacts with explicit representation of uncertainties in climate scenarios and simulations using crop and economic models. An intercomparison of wheat model simulations near Obregón, Mexico reveals inter-model differences in yield sensitivity to [CO2] with model uncertainty holding approximately steady as concentrations rise, while uncertainty related to choice of crop model increases with rising temperatures. Wheat model simulations with midcentury climate scenarios project a slight decline in absolute yields that is more sensitive to selection of crop model than to global climate model, emissions scenario, or climate scenario downscaling method. A comparison of regional and national-scale economic simulations finds a large sensitivity of projected yield changes to the simulations' resolved scales. Finally, a global economic model intercomparison example demonstrates that improvements in the understanding of agriculture futures arise from integration of the range of uncertainty in crop, climate, and economic modeling results in multi-model assessments.

Rosenzweig, C.↗