Provenance as a Service for a Multi-sensor Merged Climate Data Record
No abstract available
climate data record↗
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High Resolution Nature Runs and the Big Data Challenge
NASA's Global Modeling and Assimilation Office at Goddard Space Flight Center is undertaking a series of very computationally intensive Nature Runs and a downscaled reanalysis. The nature runs use the GEOS-5 as an Atmospheric General Circulation Model (AGCM) while the reanalysis uses the GEOS-5 in Data Assimilation mode. This paper will present computational challenges from three runs, two of which are AGCM and one is downscaled reanalysis using the full DAS. The nature runs will be completed at two surface grid resolutions, 7 and 3 kilometers and 72 vertical levels. The 7 km run spanned 2 years (2005-2006) and produced 4 PB of data while the 3 km run will span one year and generate 4 BP of data. The downscaled reanalysis (MERRA-II Modern-Era Reanalysis for Research and Applications) will cover 15 years and generate 1 PB of data. Our efforts to address the big data challenges of climate science, we are moving toward a notion of Climate Analytics-as-a-Service (CAaaS), a specialization of the concept of business process-as-a-service that is an evolving extension of IaaS, PaaS, and SaaS enabled by cloud computing. In this presentation, we will describe two projects that demonstrate this shift. MERRA Analytic Services (MERRA/AS) is an example of cloud-enabled CAaaS. MERRA/AS enables MapReduce analytics over MERRA reanalysis data collection by bringing together the high-performance computing, scalable data management, and a domain-specific climate data services API. NASA's High-Performance Science Cloud (HPSC) is an example of the type of compute-storage fabric required to support CAaaS. The HPSC comprises a high speed Infinib and network, high performance file systems and object storage, and a virtual system environments specific for data intensive, science applications. These technologies are providing a new tier in the data and analytic services stack that helps connect earthbound, enterprise-level data and computational resources to new customers and new mobility-driven applications and modes of work. In our experience, CAaaS lowers the barriers and risk to organizational change, fosters innovation and experimentation, and provides the agility required to meet our customers' increasing and changing needs
big data analysis↗
Climate Adaptation Approaches for Water and Electric Utilities: A compendium of existing strategies in a changing climate
Report analyzes plans developed by water and electric utilities to address the impacts of changes in the climate within their service territories. The analysis identifies the main types of changes that utilities address, such as sea level rise, extreme heat, and compound events such as freezing rain/show and extreme wind events. It then identifies adaptation approaches utilities have proposed or adopted to address the changes that are anticipated in their service territories. The report also identifies the mechanisms utilities (and in some cases the governments which the utilities are part of) use to ensure that energy or environmental equity is increased as a result of the resilience program. In summary, the report provides a compendium of adaptation strategies that can be used by others as they review their own need to increase climate resilience.
29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗
Using Time Series Data Products to Support ASHRAE’s Historic and Future Climate Data Needs through NASA’s POWER Web Services
To address the data needs for resilience and sustainability of building systems within ASHRAE, the NASA Prediction of Worldwide Energy Resource (POWER) project facilitates the use of NASA Earth Science data on a long-term, global scale. Solar data from several NASA projects and meteorological data from NASA assimilation models have been reformatted and disseminated to the public via a user friendly web GIS-enabled based data portal (https://power.larc.nasa.gov) in selectable data formats, immediately amenable to key industry wide decision support tools such as EnergyPlus. Time series of potential climate conditions from downscaled climate simulations are being made available for similar statistics and formats. An emphasis is placed upon obtaining and utilizing time series data to conduct analysis of building system performance for current and planning building systems for energy savings and greenhouse gas emissions. This presentation has the learning following learning objectives for the ASHRAE community: 1) Learn how NASA POWER’s web service suite can provide supplementary solar and surface meteorological data parameters, including a discussion of uncertainty. 2) Learn how downscaled climate scenario information can be provided to evaluate potential future requirements. The presentation is part of a forum entitled, "Weather Data for Large-Scale Building Energy Modeling".
time series↗
Game Based Learning For Earth Science Applications Training
Current NASA Earth capacity development programs employ mechanisms ranging from online resource sharing, and virtual and in-person trainings to share knowledge. While these programs are highly successful at engaging individuals around the world – in 2018, over 8000 individuals and over 2000 institutions from all 50 US states and over 140 countries were engaged through over 150 projects and trainings – user feedback has highlighted the desire for expanded hands-on, practical experiences in incorporating NASA EO insights with localized data and actions. We aim to address this gap by leveraging the benefits of game-based learning to build user skills in integrating NASA and local EO data to guide decisions for climate resiliency and hazard planning. This project is being executed as a two-phase crowdsourced challenge: 1) Phase 1 will require a well-researched product concept that reflects an understanding of NASA’s Earth data and tools and user needs, and proposes an innovative and interactive game or extended reality experience to train users in identifying relevant NASA data and applying insights to their climate resiliency decisions; 2) Winners of Phase 1 will be provided seed funding to develop a working prototype of the product. We aim to award 1-3 final winners to support the development of more than one game, thereby ensuring that NASA's diverse audiences around the world can access training games that best suit their needs and capabilities. This EO training game project fits in the NASA Earth Science Applied Sciences Program’s Capacity Development Program, contributing to the program mission of “helping people around the world better understand [NASA’s Earth] data and find ways to use them” (https://appliedsciences.nasa.gov/what-we-do/capacity-building). The final training game will complement existing programmatic activities of workforce development, trainings, and collaborative projects, while providing the unique value of providing interactive experiences to users and collecting real-time data and feedback to improve NASA’s Earth applications’ products and services related to climate resilience.
Human centered design↗
Operation and Maintenance of PV Systems: Data Science, Analysis, and Standards
This effort improves the effectiveness and reduce uncertainty in O&M cost through four primary objectives/tasks: 1) institutionalize standards for reliability and availability reporting for large PV power plants; 2) bridge systemic O&M knowledge gaps around important topics affecting O&M; 3) characterize systemic failure modes and patterns and accelerate O&M experiential learning cycles using field data; and 4) establish a baseline understanding of UPVS O&M cost drivers. Key results of this effort include publication of IEC standards, published topical papers on O&M topics, training, and characterize field data for climate- and service-related patterns (additional details below). Integrating these results serves to reduce performance risk and facilitate improvement in the way solar projects are operated and maintained. Results are well received and two publications are among the most successful SETO publications at NREL ("Model of Operation and Maintenance Costs for Photovoltaic Systems with over 40,000 downloads and "Best Practices in Operation and Maintenance of PV Systems, 3rd Ed." with over 90,000 downloads).
14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
Data Serving Climate Simulation Science at the NASA Center for Climate Simulation
The NASA Center for Climate Simulation (NCCS) provides high performance computational resources, a multi-petabyte archive, and data services in support of climate simulation research and other NASA-sponsored science. This talk describes the NCCS's data-centric architecture and processing, which are evolving in anticipation of researchers' growing requirements for higher resolution simulations and increased data sharing among NCCS users and the external science community.
Salmon, Ellen M.↗
Weather, Climate, and Society: New Demands on Science and Services
A new algorithm has been constructed to estimate the path length of lightning channels for the purpose of improving the model predictions of lightning NOx in both regional air quality and global chemistry/climate models. This algorithm was tested and applied to VHF signals detected by the North Alabama Lightning Mapping Array (NALMA). The accuracy of the algorithm was characterized by comparing algorithm output to the plots of individual discharges whose lengths were computed by hand. Several thousands of lightning flashes within 120 km of the NALMA network centroid were gathered from all four seasons, and were analyzed by the algorithm. The mean, standard deviation, and median statistics were obtained for all the flashes, the ground flashes, and the cloud flashes. Channel length distributions were also obtained for the different seasons.
Source record↗
Comparison of NASA Team2 and AES-York Ice Concentration Algorithms Against Operational Ice Charts From the Canadian Ice Service
Ice concentration retrieved from spaceborne passive-microwave observations is a prime input to operational sea-ice-monitoring programs, numerical weather prediction models, and global climate models. Atmospheric Environment Service (AES)- York and the Enhanced National Aeronautics and Space Administration Team (NT2) are two algorithms that calculate ice concentration from Special Sensor Microwave/Imager observations. This paper furnishes a comparison between ice concentrations (total, thin, and thick types) output from NT2 and AES-York algorithms against the corresponding estimates from the operational analysis of Radarsat images in the Canadian Ice Service (CIS). A new data fusion technique, which incorporates the actual sensor's footprint, was developed to facilitate this study. Results have shown that the NT2 and AES-York algorithms underestimate total ice concentration by 18.35% and 9.66% concentration counts on average, with 16.8% and 15.35% standard deviation, respectively. However, the retrieved concentrations of thin and thick ice are in much more discrepancy with the operational CIS estimates when either one of these two types dominates the viewing area. This is more likely to occur when the total ice concentration approaches 100%. If thin and thick ice types coexist in comparable concentrations, the algorithms' estimates agree with CIS'S estimates. In terms of ice concentration retrieval, thin ice is more problematic than thick ice. The concept of using a single tie point to represent a thin ice surface is not realistic and provides the largest error source for retrieval accuracy. While AES-York provides total ice concentration in slightly more agreement with CIS'S estimates, NT2 provides better agreement in retrieving thin and thick ice concentrations.
Shokr, Mohammed↗
Harmonization of global land use change and management for the period 850–2100 (LUH2) for CMIP6
Abstract. Human land use activities have resulted in large changes to the biogeochemical and biophysical properties of the Earth's surface, with consequences for climate and other ecosystem services. In the future, land use activities are likely to expand and/or intensify further to meet growing demands for food, fiber, and energy. As part of the World Climate Research Program Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6), the international community has developed the next generation of advanced Earth system models (ESMs) to estimate the combined effects of human activities (e.g., land use and fossil fuel emissions) on the carbon–climate system. A new set of historical data based on the History of the Global Environment database (HYDE), and multiple alternative scenarios of the future (2015–2100) from Integrated Assessment Model (IAM) teams, is required as input for these models. With most ESM simulations for CMIP6 now completed, it is important to document the land use patterns used by those simulations. Here we present results from the Land-Use Harmonization 2 (LUH2) project, which smoothly connects updated historical reconstructions of land use with eight new future projections in the format required for ESMs. The harmonization strategy estimates the fractional land use patterns, underlying land use transitions, key agricultural management information, and resulting secondary lands annually, while minimizing the differences between the end of the historical reconstruction and IAM initial conditions and preserving changes depicted by the IAMs in the future. The new approach builds on a similar effort from CMIP5 and is now provided at higher resolution (0.25∘×0.25∘) over a longer time domain (850–2100, with extensions to 2300) with more detail (including multiple crop and pasture types and associated management practices) using more input datasets (including Landsat remote sensing data) and updated algorithms (wood harvest and shifting cultivation); it is assessed via a new diagnostic package. The new LUH2 products contain > 50 times the information content of the datasets used in CMIP5 and are designed to enable new and improved estimates of the combined effects of land use on the global carbon–climate system.
54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
Harmonization of global land use change and management for the period 850–2100 (LUH2) for CMIP6
Human land use activities have resulted in large changes to the biogeochemical and biophysical properties of the Earth's surface, with consequences for climate and other ecosystem services. In the future, land use activities are likely to expand and/or intensify further to meet growing demands for food, fiber, and energy. As part of the World Climate Research Program Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6), the international community has developed the next generation of advanced Earth system models (ESMs) to estimate the combined effects of human activities (e.g., land use and fossil fuel emissions) on the carbon–climate system. A new set of historical data based on the History of the Global Environment database (HYDE), and multiple alternative scenarios of the future (2015–2100) from Integrated Assessment Model (IAM) teams, is required as input for these models. With most ESM simulations for CMIP6 now completed, it is important to document the land use patterns used by those simulations. Here we present results from the Land-Use Harmonization 2 (LUH2) project, which smoothly connects updated historical reconstructions of land use with eight new future projections in the format required for ESMs. The harmonization strategy estimates the fractional land use patterns, underlying land use transitions, key agricultural management information, and resulting secondary lands annually, while minimizing the differences between the end of the historical reconstruction and IAM initial conditions and preserving changes depicted by the IAMs in the future. The new approach builds on a similar effort from CMIP5 and is now provided at higher resolution (0.25°×0.25°) over a longer time domain (850–2100, with extensions to 2300) with more detail (including multiple crop and pasture types and associated management practices) using more input datasets (including Landsat remote sensing data) and updated algorithms (wood harvest and shifting cultivation); it is assessed via a new diagnostic package. The new LUH2 products contain > 50 times the information content of the datasets used in CMIP5 and are designed to enable new and improved estimates of the combined effects of land use on the global carbon–climate system.
land use land cover change↗
Envisioning U.S. Climate Predictions and Projections to Meet New Challenges
In the face of a changing climate, the understanding, predictions, and projections of natural and human systems are increasingly crucial to prepare and cope with extremes and cascading hazards, determine unexpected feedbacks and potential tipping points, inform long-term adaptation strategies, and guide mitigation approaches. Increasingly complex socio-economic systems require enhanced predictive information to support advanced practices. Such new predictive challenges drive the need to fully capitalize on ambitious scientific and technological opportunities. These include the unrealized potential for very high-resolution modeling of global-to-local Earth system processes across timescales, reduction of model biases, enhanced integration of human systems and the Earth Systems, better quantification of predictability and uncertainties; expedited science-to-service pathways, and co-production of actionable information with stakeholders. Enabling technological opportunities include exascale computing, advanced data storage, novel observations and powerful data analytics, including artificial intelligence and machine learning. Looking to generate community discussions on how to accelerate progress on U.S. climate predictions and projections, representatives of Federally-funded U.S. modeling groups outline here perspectives on a six-pillar national approach grounded in climate science that builds on the strengths of the U.S. modeling community and agency goals. This calls for an unprecedented level of coordination to capitalize on transformative opportunities, augmenting and complementing current modeling center capabilities and plans to support agency missions. Tangible outcomes include projections with horizontal spatial resolutions finer than 10 km, representing extremes and associated risks in greater detail, reduced model errors, better predictability estimates, and more customized projections to support next generation climate services.
54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
Robust paths to net greenhouse gas mitigation and negative emissions via advanced biofuels
Biofuel and bioenergy systems are integral to most climate stabilization scenarios for displacement of transport sector fossil fuel use and for producing negative emissions via carbon capture and storage (CCS). However, the net greenhouse gas mitigation benefit of such pathways is controversial due to concerns around ecosystem carbon losses from land use change and foregone sequestration benefits from alternative land uses. Here, we couple bottom-up ecosystem simulation with models of cellulosic biofuel production and CCS in order to track ecosystem and supply chain carbon flows for current and future biofuel systems, with comparison to competing land-based biological mitigation schemes. Analyzing three contrasting US case study sites, we show that on land transitioning out of crops or pasture, switchgrass cultivation for cellulosic ethanol production has per-hectare mitigation potential comparable to reforestation and severalfold greater than grassland restoration. In contrast, harvesting and converting existing secondary forest at those sites incurs large initial carbon debt requiring long payback periods. We also highlight how plausible future improvements in energy crop yields and biorefining technology together with CCS would achieve mitigation potential 4 and 15 times greater than forest and grassland restoration, respectively. Finally, we show that recent estimates of induced land use change are small relative to the opportunities for improving system performance that we quantify here. While climate and other ecosystem service benefits cannot be taken for granted from cellulosic biofuel deployment, our scenarios illustrate how conventional and carbon-negative biofuel systems could make a near-term, robust, and distinctive contribution to the climate challenge.
54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
Provenance Services for Tracking Production of Multi-Sensor Merged Climate Data Record
No abstract available
cloud classification↗
Tree Diversity, Site Index, and Carbon Storage Decrease With Aridity in Douglas-Fir Forests in Western Canada
Forests are important for biodiversity, timber production and carbon accumulation, but these ecosystem services may be impacted by climate change. Field data collected from individual forest types occurring across a climatic gradient can contribute to forecasting these consequences. We examined how changes in temperature, precipitation and aridity affect ecosystem services in 23 mature Douglas-fir (Pseudotsuga menziesii) forests in nine climatic regions across a 900 km gradient in British Columbia, Canada. Using Canadian National Forest Inventory methodology, we assessed richness and diversity of plant functional groups, site index, and above- and below-ground carbon stocks. As aridity increased, ecosystem-level tree species richness declined on average from four to one species, Douglas-fir site index declined from 30 to 15 m, and ecosystem carbon storage decreased from 565 to 222 Mg ha –1 . Tree species richness was positively and herb species richness negatively correlated with carbon storage. Carbon storage by ecosystem compartment was largest in aboveground live tree biomass, declining in the following order: mineral soils > coarse woody debris and dead standing trees > forest floor > small and fine woody debris > understory plants. Mineral soil carbon at depths of 0-15 cm, 15-35 cm, and 35-55 cm increased with increasing mean annual precipitation and decreasing aridity. Our results indicate that as aridity increases and precipitation decreases, tree species richness, site index and carbon storage in existing Douglas-fir forests declines. However, assisted or natural migration of Douglas-fir into more humid regions could be associated with more diverse, productive, carbon-rich forests. This study informs carbon stock vulnerability and provides empirical data essential for carbon stock forecasts.
54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
Life-cycle cost-benefit analysis of a novel self-heating pavement made from coal-derived solid carbon
Winter weather events challenge the safety, efficiency, and sustainability of roadway networks, particularly road bridges vulnerable to climate impacts. Although effective, conventional de-icing methods incur high expenses and cause significant environmental contamination. To address these longstanding issues, a low-cost novel coal-derived carbon enabled smart pavement (CDC-SP) de-icing system was developed, aiming to alleviate traffic delays, severe corrosion, compromised safety, and environmental pollution. However, the economic performance of CDC-SP has not been quantified to guide decision-making. To this end, this paper presents a Life-Cycle Cost-Benefit Analysis (LCCBA) to assess the economic feasibility of the CDC-SP de-icing system for road bridges in five representative urban and rural areas across cool humid and cold humid climate zones. Given the variations and uncertainties of several factors that determine the costs and benefits, a sensitivity analysis was conducted to determine the system’s economic reliability. Additionally, a Monte Carlo simulation (MCS) was performed to quantify the impacts of important factors and identify the most beneficial scenarios. Furthermore, the CDC-SP de-icing systems have demonstrated substantial economic benefits and short payback periods, showing great applicability for rural and urban road bridges with different service levels across multiple climate zones as compared to conventional de-icing methods.
36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
Hadoop for High-Performance Climate Analytics: Use Cases and Lessons Learned
Scientific data services are a critical aspect of the NASA Center for Climate Simulations mission (NCCS). Hadoop, via MapReduce, provides an approach to high-performance analytics that is proving to be useful to data intensive problems in climate research. It offers an analysis paradigm that uses clusters of computers and combines distributed storage of large data sets with parallel computation. The NCCS is particularly interested in the potential of Hadoop to speed up basic operations common to a wide range of analyses. In order to evaluate this potential, we prototyped a series of canonical MapReduce operations over a test suite of observational and climate simulation datasets. The initial focus was on averaging operations over arbitrary spatial and temporal extents within Modern Era Retrospective- Analysis for Research and Applications (MERRA) data. After preliminary results suggested that this approach improves efficiencies within data intensive analytic workflows, we invested in building a cyber infrastructure resource for developing a new generation of climate data analysis capabilities using Hadoop. This resource is focused on reducing the time spent in the preparation of reanalysis data used in data-model inter-comparison, a long sought goal of the climate community. This paper summarizes the related use cases and lessons learned.
analytics↗
An evolving Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 7 (CMIP7) and Fast Track in support of future climate assessment
The Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP) coordinates community-based efforts to answer key and timely climate science questions, facilitate delivery of relevant multi-model simulations through shared infrastructure, and support national and international climate assessments. Generations of CMIP have evolved through extensive community engagement from punctuated phasing into more continuous support for the design of experimental protocols, infrastructure for data publication and access, and public delivery of climate information. We identify four fundamental research questions motivating a seventh phase of coupled model intercomparison relating to patterns of sea surface temperature change, changing weather, the water–carbon–climate nexus, and tipping points. Key CMIP7 advances include an expansion of baseline experiments, a focus on CO 2 -emissions-driven experiments, sustained support for community MIPs, periodic updating of historical forcings and diagnostics requests, and a collection of prioritized experiments, or the “Assessment Fast Track”, drawn from community MIPs to support climate research, assessment, and service goals across prediction and projection, characterization, attribution, and process understanding.
Environmental sciences↗