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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 91 records · Page 5
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2021

Living on the edge: A continental-scale assessment of forest vulnerability to drought

Globally, forests are facing an increasing risk of mass tree mortality events associated with extreme droughts and higher temperatures. Hydraulic dysfunction is considered a key mechanism of drought-triggered dieback. By leveraging the climate breadth of the Australian landscape and a national network of research sites (Terrestrial Ecosystem Research Network), we conducted a continental-scale study of physiological and hydraulic traits of 33 native tree species from contrasting environments to disentangle the complexities of plant response to drought across communities. Here, we found strong relationships between key plant hydraulic traits and site aridity. Leaf turgor loss point and xylem embolism resistance were correlated with minimum water potential experienced by each species. Across the data set, there was a strong coordination between hydraulic traits, including those linked to hydraulic safety, stomatal regulation and the cost of carbon investment into woody tissue. These results illustrate that aridity has acted as a strong selective pressure, shaping hydraulic traits of tree species across the Australian landscape. Hydraulic safety margins were constrained across sites, with species from wetter sites tending to have smaller safety margin compared with species at drier sites, suggesting trees are operating close to their hydraulic thresholds and forest biomes across the spectrum may be susceptible to shifts in climate that result in the intensification of drought.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

Effects of Rapid Permafrost Thaw on CO2 and CH4 Fluxes in a Warmer and Wetter Future (Final Technical Report)

When ice-rich permafrost thaws, the ground subsides, creating thermokarst landscapes with dramatically different soil conditions and carbon fluxes than the original ecosystem. Roughly 20% of the northern permafrost region is susceptible to thermokarst formation (Olefeldt et al., 2016). Thermokarst formation is often rapid; tens of meters of permafrost can thaw within a few years (Schuur et al., 2015). In topographically low areas, thermokarst thaw converts boreal forest or tundra dry shrub ecosystems into sedge or Sphagnum moss wetlands (Olefeldt et al., 2016). While this type of landscape transformation releases carbon stored in permafrost into the atmosphere, on longer time scales, it facilitates sequestration of atmospheric carbon in plant biomass because permafrost thaw releases plant-available nutrients and wetlands are highly productive (M. C. Jones et al., 2017). However, wetlands also generate methane, which is a potent greenhouse gas. Methane emissions from thermokarst wetlands can cause these carbon-sequestering systems to have a positive global warming potential (Johansson et al., 2006; Turetsky et al., 2007). Our project objective was to improve Earth System and environmental predictability by advancing understanding of how CO 2 and CH 4 flux in permafrost thaw-induced wetlands (thermokarst) will change in the future as temperatures and climate conditions shift. Northern latitudes are expected to get warmer and wetter (IPCC 2013), and initiation and expansion of thermokarst thaw is expected to increase (Jorgenson et al. 2006; Zhang et al. 2017). Given these expected changes, our work sought to address three broad questions: Q1) How will northern latitude CO2 and CH4 emissions respond to warming temperatures? Q2) What is the impact of precipitation on permafrost thaw and carbon emissions? Q3) How do CO2 and CH4 emissions change as wetlands age after permafrost thaw? To answer these questions, we took both a modeling and measurement approach. Modeling work was conducted with DOE’s Energy Exascale Earth System Model (E3SM) land model (ELM). Empirical work took place in two primary locations. The first was a thermokarst site near Fairbanks, AK. The site is part of the Bonanza Creek Long Term Ecological Research program and is well instrumented (Neumann et al., 2019). The second was an isolated thawing permafrost wetland located on Kenai Peninsula — Brown’s Lake bog (B. M. Jones et al., 2016) — where the current climate is representative of what is expected at higher latitudes in the future. This site provides an ideal opportunity to test our hypotheses about how thermokarst wetland dynamics will respond to future environmental conditions. In addition, the project collaborated with researchers asking similar questions who were collecting measurements in high latitude post-glacial lakes located in collaborators tackling similar questions in Sweden (Stordalen Mire) (Emerson et al., 2021). Project efforts directly aligned with the stated goal of the funding opportunity announcement (FOA), which was “to improve the understanding and representation of terrestrial ecosystems in ways that advance Earth system model parameterizations and capabilities... thereby improving the quality of Earth and environmental model projections and providing the scientific foundation needed to support DOE’s science and energy missions.” Specifically, the project improved sophistication and accuracy of the Energy Exascale Earth System Model (E3SM), which is being developed primarily at DOE National Laboratories to support scientific research and decision-making.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

Observational evidence for groundwater influence on crop yields in the United States

As climate change shifts crop exposure to dry and wet extremes, a better understanding of factors governing crop response is needed. Recent studies identified shallow groundwater—groundwater within or near the crop rooting zone—as influential, yet existing evidence is largely based on theoretical crop model simulations, indirect or static groundwater data, or small-scale field studies. Here, we use observational satellite yield data and dynamic water table simulations from 1999 to 2018 to provide field-scale evidence for shallow groundwater effects on maize yields across the United States Corn Belt. We identify three lines of evidence supporting groundwater influence: 1) crop model simulations better match observed yields after improvements in groundwater representation; 2) machine learning analysis of observed yields and modeled groundwater levels reveals a subsidy zone between 1.1 and 2.5 m depths, with yield penalties at shallower depths and no effect at deeper depths; and 3) locations with groundwater typically in the subsidy zone display higher yield stability across time. We estimate an average 3.4% yield increase when groundwater levels are at optimum depth, and this effect roughly doubles in dry conditions. Groundwater yield subsidies occur ~35% of years on average across locations, with 75% of the region benefitting in at least 10% of years. Overall, we estimate that groundwater-yield interactions had a net monetary contribution of approximately $10 billion from 1999 to 2018. This study provides empirical evidence for region-wide groundwater yield impacts and further underlines the need for better quantification of groundwater levels and their dynamic responses to short- and long-term weather conditions.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

Intensifying Renewable Energy Droughts in the Western U.S. Amid Evolving Infrastructure and Climate

If renewable energy resources continue to become a larger part of the generation mix in the United States (U.S.), so does the potential impact of prolonged periods of low wind and solar generation, known as variable renewable energy (VRE) droughts. In such a future, naturally occurring VRE droughts need to be evaluated for their potential impact on grid reliability. This study is the first of its kind to examine the impacts of compound VRE energy droughts in the Western U.S. across a range of potential future climate and infrastructure scenarios. We find that compound VRE drought severity may increase significantly in the future, primarily due to the dramatic increase in wind and solar generation needed in some future infrastructure scenarios. We find that in our future climate scenario, the variability of energy drought severity increases, which has implications for sizing energy storage necessary for mitigating drought events. We also examine the spatial patterns of compound VRE drought events that effect multiple regions of the grid simultaneously. These co-occurring events have distinct spatial patterns depending on the season. We observed overall fewer connected events in the future with the combined effect of potential climate and infrastructure changes, although in the fall we observe a climate-induced shift toward events which impact more regions simultaneously.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗
DOE OSTI2021

Phenological shifts in lake stratification under climate change

One of the most important physical characteristics driving lifecycle events in lakes is stratification. Already subtle variations in the timing of stratification onset and break-up (phenology) are known to have major ecological effects, mainly by determining the availability of light, nutrients, carbon and oxygen to organisms. Despite its ecological importance, historic and future global changes in stratification phenology are unknown. Here, we used a lake-climate model ensemble and long-term observational data, to investigate changes in lake stratification phenology across the Northern Hemisphere from 1901 to 2099. Under the high-greenhouse-gas-emission scenario, stratification will begin 22.0 ± 7.0 days earlier and end 11.3 ± 4.7 days later by the end of this century. It is very likely that this 33.3 ± 11.7 day prolongation in stratification will accelerate lake deoxygenation with subsequent effects on nutrient mineralization and phosphorus release from lake sediments. Further misalignment of lifecycle events, with possible irreversible changes for lake ecosystems, is also likely.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

Depth-dependent Metagenome-Assembled Genomes of Agricultural Soils under Managed Aquifer Recharge

Abstract Managed Aquifer Recharge (MAR) systems, which intentionally replenish groundwater aquifers with excess water, are critical for addressing water scarcity exacerbated by demographic shifts and climate variability. To date, little is known about the functional diversity of the soil microbiome at different soil depth inhabiting agricultural soils used for MAR. Knowing the functional diversity is pivotal in regulating nutrient cycling and maintaining soil health. Metagenomics, particularly Metagenome-Assembled Genomes (MAGs), provide a powerful tool to explore the diversity of uncultivated soil microbes, facilitating in-depth investigations into microbial functions. In a field experiment conducted in a California vineyard, we sequenced soil DNA before and after water application of MAR. Through this process, we assembled 146 medium and 14 high-quality MAGs, uncovering a wide array of archaeal and bacterial taxa across different soil depths. These findings advance our understanding of the microbial ecology and functional diversity of soils used for MAR, contributing to the development of more informed and sustainable land management strategies.

Science & Technology - Other Topics↗
DOE OSTI2023

It's only natural: Plant respiration in unmanaged systems

Abstract Respiration plays a key role in the terrestrial carbon cycle and is a fundamental metabolic process in all plant tissues and cells. We review respiration from the perspective of plants that grow in their natural habitat and how it is influenced by wide-ranging elements at different scales, from metabolic substrate availability to shifts in climate. Decades of field-based measurements have honed our understanding of the biological and environmental controls on leaf, root, stem, and whole-organism respiration. Despite this effort, there remain gaps in our knowledge within and across species and ecosystems, especially in more challenging-to-measure tissues like roots. Recent databases of respiration rates and associated leaf traits from species representing diverse biomes, plant functional types, and regional climates have allowed for a wider-lens view at modeling this important CO2 flux. We also re-analyze published data sets to show that maximum leaf respiration rates (R max) in species from around the globe are related both to leaf economic traits and environmental variables (precipitation and air temperature), but that root respiration does not follow the same latitudinal trends previously published for leaf data. We encourage the ecophysiological community to continue to expand their study of plant respiration in tissues that are difficult to measure and at the whole plant and ecosystem levels to address outstanding questions in the field.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

A novel approach to partitioning evapotranspiration into evaporation and transpiration in flooded ecosystems

Reliable partitioning of micrometeorologically measured evapotranspiration (ET) into evaporation (E) and transpiration (T) would greatly enhance our understanding of the water cycle and its response to climate change related shifts in local-to-regional climate conditions and rising global levels of vapor pressure deficit (VPD). While some methods on ET partitioning have been developed, their underlying assumptions make them difficult to apply more generally, especially in sites with large contributions of E. Here, we report a novel ET partitioning method using artificial neural networks (ANNs) in combination with a range of environmental input variables to predict daytime E from nighttime ET measurements. The study uses eddy covariance data from four restored wetlands in the Sacramento-San Joaquin Delta, California, USA, as well as leaf-level T data for validation. The four wetlands vary in their vegetation make-up and structure, representing a range of ET conditions. The ANNs were built with increasing complexity by adding the input variable that resulted in the next highest average value of model testing R 2 across all sites. The order of variable inclusion (and importance) was: VPD > gap-filled sensible heat flux (H_gf) > air temperature (T air ) > friction velocity (u * ) > other variables. The model using VPD, H_gf, T air , and u * showed the best performance during validation with independent data and had a mean testing R 2 value of 0.853 (averaged across all sites, range from 0.728 to 0.910). In comparison to other methods, our ANN method generated T/ET partitioning results which were more consistent with CO 2 exchange data especially for more heterogeneous sites with large E contributions. Further, our method improves the understanding of T/ET partitioning. While it may be particularly suited to flooded ecosystems, it can also improve T/ET partitioning in other systems, increasing our knowledge of the global water cycle and ecosystem functioning.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

Linking soil phosphorus with forest litterfall resistance and resilience to cyclone disturbance: A pantropical meta-analysis

While tropical cyclone regimes are shifting with climate change, the mechanisms underpinning the resistance (ability to withstand disturbance-induced change) and resilience (capacity to return to pre-disturbance reference) of tropical forest litterfall to cyclones remain largely unexplored pantropically. Single-site studies in Australia and Hawaii suggest that litterfall on low-phosphorus (P) soils is more resistant and less resilient to cyclones. Here, we conducted a meta-analysis to investigate the pantropical importance of total soil P in mediating forest litterfall resistance and resilience to 22 tropical cyclones. We evaluated cyclone-induced and post-cyclone litterfall mass (g/m 2 /day), and P and nitrogen (N) fluxes (mg/m 2 /day) and concentrations (mg/g), all indicators of ecosystem function and essential for nutrient cycling. Across 73 case studies in Australia, Guadeloupe, Hawaii, Mexico, Puerto Rico, and Taiwan, total litterfall mass flux increased from ~2.5 ± 0.3 to 22.5 ± 3 g/m 2 /day due to cyclones, with large variation among studies. Litterfall P and N fluxes post-cyclone represented ~5% and 10% of the average annual fluxes, respectively. Post-cyclone leaf litterfall N and P concentrations were 21.6 ± 1.2% and 58.6 ± 2.3% higher than pre-cyclone means. Mixed-effects models determined that soil P negatively moderated the pantropical litterfall resistance to cyclones, with a 100 mg P/kg increase in soil P corresponding to a 32% to 38% decrease in resistance. Based on 33% of the resistance case studies, total litterfall mass flux reached pre-disturbance levels within one-year post-disturbance. A GAMM indicated that soil P, gale wind duration and time post-cyclone jointly moderate the short-term resilience of total litterfall, with the nature of the relationship between resilience and soil P contingent on time and wind duration. Across pantropical forests observed to date, our results indicate that litterfall resistance and resilience in the face of intensifying cyclones will be partially determined by total soil P.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
NASA NTRS2000

Volcanism on the Red Planet: Mars

Of all the planets in the Solar System, Mars is the most Earthlike in its geological characteristics. Like Earth, it has been subjected to exogenic processes, such as impact cratesing and erosion by wind and water, as well as endogenic processes, including tectonic deformation of the crust and volcanism. The effects of these processes are amply demonstrated by the great variety of surface features, including impact craters, landslides, former river channels, sand dunes, and the largest volcanoes in the Solar System. Some of these features suggest substantial changes in Mars' environment during its history. For example, as reviewed by Carr, today Mars is a cold, dry desert with an average atmospheric pressure of only 5.6 mbar which does not allow liquid water to exist on the surface. To some planetary scientists, the presence of the channels bespeaks a time when Mars was warmer and wetter. However, others have argued that these features might have formed under current conditions and that there might not have been a shift in climate. Could the morphology of volcanoes and related features provide clues to past Martian environments? What role is played by atmospheric density in the styles of eruptions on Mars and resulting landforms? If these and related questions can be answered, then we may have a means for assessing the conditions on Mars' surface in the past and comparing the results with models of Martian evolution. In this chapter, we outline the sources of information available for volcanism on Mars, explore the influence of the Martian environment on volcanic processes, and describe the principal volcanic features and their implications for understanding the general evolution of the Martian surface.

Greeley, Ronald↗
NASA NTRS2004

Quantifying Grassland-to-Woodland Transitions and the Implications for Carbon and Nitrogen Dynamics in the Southwest United States

Replacement of grasslands and savannas by shrublands and woodlands has been widely reported in tropical, temperate and high-latitude rangelands worldwide (Archer 1994). These changes in vegetation structure may reflect historical shifts in climate and land use; and are likely to influence biodiversity, productivity, above- and below ground carbon and nitrogen sequestration and biophysical aspects of land surface-atmosphere interactions. The goal of our proposed research is to investigate how changes in the relative abundance of herbaceous and woody vegetation affect carbon and nitrogen dynamics across heterogeneous savannas and shrub/woodlands. By linking actual land-cover composition (derived through spectral mixture analysis of AVIRIS, TM, and AVHRR imagery) with a process-based ecosystem model, we will generate explicit predictions of the C and N storage in plants and soils resulting from changes in vegetation structure. Our specific objectives will be to (1) continue development and test applications of spectral mixture analysis across grassland-to-woodland transitions; (2) quantify temporal changes in plant and soil C and N storage and turnover for remote sensing and process model parameterization and verification; and (3) couple landscape fraction maps to an ecosystem simulation model to observe biogeochemical dynamics under changing landscape structure and climatological forcings.

Wessman, Carol A.↗
NASA NTRS2006

Role of Climate Change in Global Predictions of Future Tropospheric Ozone and Aerosols

A unified tropospheric chemistry-aerosol model within the Goddard Institute for Space Studies general circulation model II is applied to simulate an equilibrium CO2-forced climate in the year 2100 to examine the effects of climate change on global distributions of tropospheric ozone and sulfate, nitrate, ammonium, black carbon, primary organic carbon, secondary organic carbon, sea salt, and mineral dust aerosols. The year 2100 CO2 concentration as well as the anthropogenic emissions of ozone precursors and aerosols/aerosol precursors are based on the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES) A2. Year 2100 global O3 and aerosol burdens predicted with changes in both climate and emissions are generally 5-20% lower than those simulated with changes in emissions alone; as exceptions, the nitrate burden is 38% lower, and the secondary organic aerosol burden is 17% higher. Although the CO2-driven climate change alone is predicted to reduce the global O3 concentrations over or near populated and biomass burning areas because of slower transport, enhanced biogenic hydrocarbon emissions, decomposition of peroxyacetyl nitrate at higher temperatures, and the increase of O3 production by increased water vapor at high NOx levels. The warmer climate influences aerosol burdens by increasing aerosol wet deposition, altering climate-sensitive emissions, and shifting aerosol thermodynamic equilibrium. Climate change affects the estimates of the year 2100 direct radiative forcing as a result of the climate-induced changes in burdens and different climatological conditions; with full gas-aerosol coupling and accounting for ozone and direct radiative forcings by the O2, sulfate, nitrate, black carbon, and organic carbon are predicted to be +0.93, -0.72, -1.0, +1.26, and -0.56 W m(exp -2), respectively, using present-day climate and year 2100 emissions, while they are predicted to be +0.76, -0.72, 0.74, +0.97, and -0.58 W m(exp -2), respectively, with year 2100 climate and emissions.

Liao, Hong↗
NASA NTRS2014

Examining the Link Between Food Prices and Food Insecurity: a Multi-Level Analysis of Maize Price and Birthweight in Kenya

In developing countries where many poor people rely on rainfed, locally produced food for the majority of their caloric intake, shifts in climate and weather patterns can dramatically reduce agricultural productivity. The reduction in agricultural productivity reduces overall food availability and ultimately impacts food accessibility, putting millions of people at risk for malnutrition. In this project we focus on Kenya where roughly a third of households are food insecure. We examine the relationship of the price of maize and low birth weight to help quantify the impact of local food prices on one outcome of household food insecurity. Using spatially referenced data from recent Kenyan Demographic and Health Survey datasets, price data, livelihood information, and a remotely sensed-based measure of local growing season productivity, we develop a dataset linking pregnancies occurring from 2001 to 2008 to the spatially and temporally relevant maize price data. We construct several regression models to examine the impact of local maize prices and remotely sensed based estimates of crop production on infant birth weight - specifically low birth weight. The results of the models highlight the importance of including community crop production to evaluate maize price impacts on low birth weight outcomes. Also, because of the positive correlation between pre-pregnancy maize prices and birth weight, the results suggest that some households may benefit from high prices or that high prices may impact the number of conceptions. More generally, our work demonstrates that multilevel models that account for community-level variation are important for disentangling these complex relationships and can contribute to the discussion of how to design more effective food policies.

Low birth weight↗
NASA NTRS2018

Patterns in Mobility and Modification of Middle and High-Latitude Southern Hemisphere Dunes on Mars

Change detection analyses of aeolian bedforms (dunes and ripples), using multitemporal imagesacquired by the Mars Reconnaissance Orbiter High Resolution Imaging Science Experiment (HiRISE), canreveal migration of bedforms on Mars. Here we investigated bedform mobility (evidence of wind-drivenmigration or activity), from analysis of HiRISE temporal image pairs, and dune field modification (i.e., apparentpresence/lack of changes or degradation due to nonaeolian processes) through use of a dune stability indexor SI (1–6; higher numbers indicating increasing evidence of stability/modification). Combining mobility dataand SI for 70 dune fields south of 40°S latitude, we observed a clear trend of decreasing bedform mobility withincreasing SI and latitude. Both dunes and ripples were more commonly active at lower latitudes, althoughsome high-latitude ripples are migrating. Most dune fields with lower SIs (3) were found to be active whilethose with higher SIs were primarily found to be inactive. A shift in prevalence of active to apparently inactivebedforms and to dune fields with SI 2 occurs at ~60°S latitude, coincident with the edge of highconcentrations of H2O-equivalent hydrogen observed by the Mars Odyssey Neutron Spectrometer. This result isconsistent with previous studies suggesting that stabilizing agents, such as ground ice, likely stabilize bedformsand limit sediment availability. Observations of active dune fields with morphologies indicative of stability(i.e., migrating ripples in SI = 3 dune fields) may have implications for episodic phases of reworking or dunebuilding, and possibly geologically recent activation or stabilization corresponding to shifts in climate

Banks, Maria E.↗
NASA NTRS2020

The Stratigraphy of Central and Western Butte and the Greenheugh Pediment Contact

The Greenheugh pediment at the base of Aeolis Mons (Mt. Sharp), which may truncate units in the Murray formation and is capped by a thin sandstone unit, appears to represent a major shift in climate history within Gale crater. The pediment appears to be an erosional remnant of potentially a much more extensive feature. Curiosity’s traverse through the southern extent of Glen Torridon (south of Vera Rubin ridge) has brought the rover in contact with several new stratigraphic units that lie beneath the pediment. These strata were visited at two outcrop-forming buttes (Central and Western butte- both remnants of the retreating pediment) south of an orbitally defined boundary marking the transition from the Fractured Clay-bearing Unit (fCU) and the fractured Intermediate Unit (fIU). Here we present preliminary interpretations of the stratigraphy within Central and Western buttes and propose the Western butte cap rocks do not match the pediment capping unit.

Bryk, A. B.↗
NASA NTRS2022

New Directions in Tropical Phenology

Earth’s most speciose biomes are in the tropics, yet tropical plant phenology remains poorly understood. Tropical phenological data are comparatively scarce and viewed through the lens of a ‘temperate phenological paradigm’ expecting phenological traits to respond to strong, predictably annual shifts in climate (e.g., between subfreezing and frost-free periods). Digitized herbarium data greatly expand existing phenological data for tropical plants; and circular data, statistics, and models are more appropriate for analyzing tropical (and temperate) phenological datasets. Phylogenetic information, which remains seldom applied in phenological investigations, provides new insights into phenological responses of large groups of related species to climate. Consistent combined use of herbarium data, circular statistical distributions, and robust phylogenies will rapidly advance our understanding of tropical – and temperate – phenology.

tropical phenology↗
NASA NTRS2024

Shifting institutional culture to develop climate solutions with Open Science

This call to action by Drs. Johnson and Wilkinson is part of a mosaic of voices sharing tangible progress within the climate movement 1,2. This call speaks to us as environmental and Earth scientists motivated by the urgency of climate change and social inequity and who contribute to finding science-driven climate solutions as part of our daily jobs. Unfortunately, we are often unable to efficiently move this critical and urgent work forward because we are impeded by cumbersome daily workflows and restrictive workplace cultures. Our workplaces have not kept pace with the modern realities of data-intensive science: increasing data volumes and storage needs, rapidly evolving technology, new skill requirements, and a growing need for extensive and diverse collaboration. Struggling with old approaches and learning new ones in isolation can fuel burnout and turnover, preventing us from working on science-driven climate solutions effectively.

open science↗
DOE OSTI2025

The relative importance of building design parameters in reducing energy use and sensible heat release from buildings in light of forecasted future weather data and building coverage ratio

Buildings typically have a 60-to-75-year lifespan before they require significant maintenance or modifications. However, most builders evaluate the performance of their new buildings using whole-building energy simulation tools based on the current typical meteorological year (TMY) file or actual meteorological year. The energy use consumption and sensible heat release pattern observed from buildings could potentially change based on shifting global climates. Therefore, the recommended energy-efficiency design parameters might also change during these periods. In this study, we evaluate the role of different building design parameters, such as material reflectivity, HVAC COP, and insulation values, on building energy usage and sensible heat release from buildings with different building coverage ratios (BCR), based on the current and future weather file TMY (fTMY) for the middle of the century (2040–2060). The role of sensible heat release from buildings is not accounted for accurately while estimating building energy usage in most whole-building energy simulations. The study conducts a series of whole-building energy simulation analyses using EnergyPlus to evaluate the role of different design parameters based on TMY and fTMY weather conditions. The analysis is conducted for two hot desert climatic cities: Phoenix (USA) and Abu Dhabi (UAE). The results show that, for the base case in a future climate, the sensible heat release is reduced by an average of 30% due to the reduced delta T between the surface and ambient air. Further, the results show an increase in total energy consumption by 5% annually. The results also show that, for buildings with traditional coatings, shorter buildings release more heat than taller buildings. On the other hand, for buildings with reflective paints, shorter buildings release less heat than taller buildings. The findings from this study can be used by policymakers, utility companies, and builders to better understand the relative role of different building design parameters while constructing new and retrofitting existing buildings.

Alhazmi, Mansour [King Fahd University of Petroleu↗