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Climate in Earth history

Complex atmosphere-ocean-land interactions govern the climate system and its variations. During the course of Earth history, nature has performed a large number of experiments involving climatic change; the geologic record contains much information regarding these experiments. This information should result in an increased understanding of the climate system, including climatic stability and factors that perturb climate. In addition, the paleoclimatic record has been demonstrated to be useful in interpreting the origin of important resources-petroleum, natural gas, coal, phosphate deposits, and many others.

Berger, W. H.↗

History and Progress of GCM Simulations on Recent Mars Climate Change

The Mars Global Surveyor and Odyssey spacecraft reveal evidence that Mars may have experienced significant climate change in the recent past (105-106 Myr ago). Examples include gullies [1], cold-based tropical glaciers [2], paleolakes [3], and youthful near-surface ice [4]. Except for the gullies, the evidence for recent climate change requires ice and/or liquid water at low latitudes. An obvious question, therefore, is how is it possible for ice and/or liquid water to exist at low latitudes which is not possible in the present climate system? There are several mechanisms to consider. An episode of intense volcanic activity could alter the mean composition of the atmosphere and, therefore, the climate system. Impacts, depending on the size, composition, and velocity of the impactor are another way to dramatically alter the climate system. Polar wander and solar variability are also possibilities. However, the most promising way to change the climate is through changes in orbital properties. Mars, because of its proximity to Jupiter and lack of a large stabilizing moon, experiences much greater changes in its orbit properties than the Earth.

Haberle, R. M.↗

History and Progress of GCM Simulations on Recent Mars Climate Change

The Mars Global Surveyor and Odyssey spacecraft reveal evidence that Mars may have experienced significant climate change in the recent past (10(exp 5) - 10(exp 6) Myr ago). Examples include gullies, cold-based tropical glaciers, paleolakes, and youthful near-surface ice. Except for the gullies, the evidence for recent climate change requires ice and/or liquid water at low latitudes. An obvious question, therefore, is how is it possible for ice and/or liquid water to exist at low latitudes which is not possible in the present climate system? There are several mechanisms to consider. An episode of intense volcanic activity could alter the mean composition of the atmosphere and, therefore, the climate system. Impacts, depending on the size, composition, and velocity of the impactor are another way to dramatically alter the climate system. Polar wander and solar variability are also possibilities. However, the most promising way to change the climate is through changes in orbital properties. Mars, because of its proximity to Jupiter and lack of a large stabilizing moon, experiences much greater changes in its orbit properties than the Earth.

Haberle, R. M.↗

Climate Lecture 20: The Educational Global Climate Model (EdGCM)

Climate change will profoundly impact Earth's environmental health as well as the world's economic and geopolitical landscape over the coming decades. The impacts of climate change are, in fact, already beginning to be experienced and have the potential to affect every living plant and animal on Earth within decades. Given this reality, every citizen of this planet should have the right to knowledge about the Earth's climate system and have the option to adapt to, or help mitigate the profound changes that are coming. In addition, a portion of the workforce needs to be capable of interpreting and analyzing climate information because, since the impacts of climate change will be widespread, pervasive, and continue to change over time, more professions will be interacting with climate data. We are already at, or past, the point where educators and their students require access to the scientific and technological resources - computer models, data, and visualization tools - that scientists use daily in the study of climate change. Although scientists use many methods to study Earth's climate system, global climate models (GCMs) have become the primary tools for exploring the complex interactions between components of the entire system: atmosphere, oceans, and land. GCMs are used to make projections of future climate change, to simulate climates of the past, and even to help scientists look for life on other planets. Like any model, a GCM can help people evaluate actions before they are taken. Like Business Intelligence software, they are Climate Intelligence tools. Unfortunately, GCMs are black boxes to most people. A previous chapter in this book by Gary Russell, entitled Building a Climate Model, is one example of the growing body of literature aimed at the general public describing the inner workings of global climate models. This literature goes a long way toward explaining climate model fundamentals. However, it will not be enough to alleviate their black-box nature unless people are afforded hands-on, authentic learning experiences as well.

Chandler, Mark A.↗

Earth System Modeling and Field Experiments in the Arctic-Boreal Zone - Report from a NASA Workshop

Early climate modeling studies predicted that the Arctic Ocean and surrounding circumpolar land masses would heat up earlier and faster than other parts of the planet as a result of greenhouse gas-induced climate change, augmented by the sea-ice albedo feedback effect. These predictions have been largely borne out by observations over the last thirty years. However, despite constant improvement, global climate models have greater difficulty in reproducing the current climate in the Arctic than elsewhere and the scatter between projections from different climate models is much larger in the Arctic than for other regions. Biogeochemical cycle (BGC) models indicate that the warming in the Arctic-Boreal Zone (ABZ) could lead to widespread thawing of the permafrost, along with massive releases of CO2 and CH4, and large-scale changes in the vegetation cover in the ABZ. However, the uncertainties associated with these BGC model predictions are even larger than those associated with the physical climate system models used to describe climate change. These deficiencies in climate and BGC models reflect, at least in part, an incomplete understanding of the Arctic climate system and can be related to inadequate observational data or analyses of existing data. A workshop was held at NASA/GSFC, May 22-24 2012, to assess the predictive capability of the models, prioritize the critical science questions; and make recommendations regarding new field experiments needed to improve model subcomponents. This presentation will summarize the findings and recommendations of the workshop, including the need for aircraft and flux tower measurements and extension of existing in-situ measurements to improve process modeling of both the physical climate and biogeochemical cycle systems. Studies should be directly linked to remote sensing investigations with a view to scaling up the improved process models to the Earth System Model scale. Data assimilation and observing system simulation studies should be used to guide the deployment pattern and schedule for inversion studies as well. Synthesis and integration of previously funded Arctic-Boreal projects (e.g., ABLE, BOREAS, ICESCAPE, ICEBRIDGE, ARCTAS) should also be undertaken. Such an effort would include the integration of multiple remotely sensed products from the EOS satellites and other resources.

Sellers, Piers↗

Stability of the Early Mars Atmosphere to Collapse into Permanent Polarcaps

The presence of a permanent CO2 polar ice cap on Mars has important consequences for the planet's climate system. The heat balance of such a cap, which is determined mainly by atmospheric heat transport, and the downward solar in infrared radiative fluxes, determines its surface temperature, which through the vapor pressure relation sets the mean annual surface pressure. On Mars today, for example, the south residual CO2 cap is present year-round with a mean annual temperature of approximately 145 K which corresponds to a mean annual CO2 vapor pressure of approximately 600 Pa. On early Mars, permanent polar caps are also possible especially since the sun was less luminous 3.5-4.0 Gya. Thus, the existence of permanent polar caps on early Mars is central to understanding the nature of the planets climate system in those ancient times and whether or not the atmosphere might have been capable of sustaining conditions suitable for liquid water flowing over the surface as is indicated in the geological record. Forget et al [1] showed that for present orbital properties atmospheric collapse into permanent polar caps could only be prevented for surface pressures roughly between 500 - 3000 hPa. Though follow-on studies confirm and extend the Forget et al. results [2], the full sensitivity of this "window" of stability has not been explored. There are many factors to consider such the albedo of the caps, dust content of the atmosphere, and the presence of water ice clouds. However, we begin our exploration of the stability of the early Martian atmosphere by focusing on the role of CO2 ice clouds. In some preliminary simulations with the Ames Mars General Circulation Model (GCM) we found that atmospheric collapse depends on assumptions regarding the fate of CO2 ice clouds. If, for example, we assume the clouds immediately fall to the surface, then in some cases collapse is favored. On the other hand if the clouds are allowed to fall and evaporate, collapse can be averted. This implies that CO2 ice cloud microphysics is important to the overall stability of the atmosphere. Though the Ames GCM has a sophisticated CO2 cloud microphysics package that includes nucleation, growth, and sedimentation (see accompanying poster by Kahre et al. [3]), we have implemented a simpler scheme based on the Forget et al. [1] approach to CO2 ice clouds. Our goal is to reproduce and expand their study. The key parameter in this approach is the concentration and vertical distribution of cloud condensation nuclei (CCN), i.e., dust particles. Fewer CCN lead to larger particles which fall faster, while higher CCN concentrations lead to smaller particles and thicker clouds that remain suspended for longer periods of time. We plan to explore the stability of the atmosphere to CCN concentrations and distributions and then assess the capability of thick early atmospheres to loft and distribute dust particles (CCN) around the planet. Thus, our work will shed light on the nature of the coupling between the dust and CO2 cycles and the implications it has for the early Mars climate system.

ice cap↗

Reference Intercalibration for the Climate Observing System

Reference Intercalibration is critical in supporting the construction of climate data records, which, given their necessary longevity, must consist of measurements from multiple instruments. Reference intercalibration enables placing multiple instruments on the same radiometric scale, reducing calibration-based biases in climate data records. Measurements that have characteristics of a climate benchmark make excellent in-orbit intercalibration references. Climate Absolute Radiance and Refractivity Observatory (CLARREO) Pathfinder (CPF) consists of a reflected solar (RS) spectrometer (350-2300 nm) that will take hyperspectral Earth reflectance measurements with unprecedented SI-traceable accuracy (0.3%, 1-sigma) from the International Space Station (ISS). CPF measurements will have several characteristics of climate benchmark measurements and will demonstrate its capability as a rigorous in-orbit intercalibration reference with Clouds and Earth’s Radiant Energy System (CERES) and Visible Infrared Imaging Radiometer Suite (VIIRS). The methodologies that have been developed to support CPF-CERES and CPF-VIIRS intercalibration can readily be extended to other Low Earth Orbit and Geostationary instrument targets. With its highly accurate hyperspectral observations, CPF measurements can also be used to improve the characterization of targets widely used for satellite instrument vicarious calibration including Earth land surface pseudo-invariant calibration sites, deep convective clouds, and the Moon. We will discuss the importance of climate benchmark measurement attributes for intercalibration and considerations for the associated intercalibration data analysis to support building and maintaining climate data records.

Yolanda Shea↗

AgMIP Local, National and Global Assessments of Food System Challenges in A Changing Climate

Food systems connect a diverse network of stakeholders around the world, with complex dynamics governing production, processing, transportation, trade and consumption of food products. Extreme conditions can disrupt multiple components of the food system, with systemic connections providing structure that can both buffer and exacerbate risks. Climate change is shifting current practices in agricultural production and the broader food system, encouraging shifts toward more diverse value chains capable of drawing from multiple food producing regions to reduce the chance that an entire value chain be subject to simultaneous impacts. The IPCC Working Group I report assessed that heat waves, fires, floods and severe storms are becoming more pronounced and widespread with each degree of global warming, increasing food system risk. Food system disruptions can also come from outside the climate system, including from viral outbreaks, geopolitical conflict and socioeconomic changes. This presentation will highlight how the Agricultural Model Intercomparison and Improvement Project (AgMIP) develops modeling approaches that connect climate, biophysical and socioeconomic models in order to capture complex responses of the food system and potential interventions by diverse stakeholders in the public and private sectors. Models are applied on a range of scales that match decision contexts. These include households in specific agricultural production regions (e.g., within a country), national-level policymakers considering policies, sustainability and development priorities for a country’s agricultural sector, and global food market models that balance production and consumption around the world with competition for land, water, energy and sustainability priorities. Models are capable of capturing many important responses, but further development is needed to represent key systemic risks and the possibility for additional interventions beyond the farm gate. Improved food system models will provide important insights into our society’s ability to cope with climate change, as well as our ability to identify agricultural adaptation and mitigation opportunities to reduce overall risk.

Food systems↗

Abrupt climate change and extinction events

There is a growing body of theoretical and empirical support for the concept of instabilities in the climate system, and indications that abrupt climate change may in some cases contribute to abrupt extinctions. Theoretical indications of instabilities can be found in a broad spectrum of climate models (energy balance models, a thermohaline model of deep-water circulation, atmospheric general circulation models, and coupled ocean-atmosphere models). Abrupt transitions can be of several types and affect the environment in different ways. There is increasing evidence for abrupt climate change in the geologic record and involves both interglacial-glacial scale transitions and the longer-term evolution of climate over the last 100 million years. Records from the Cenozoic clearly show that the long-term trend is characterized by numerous abrupt steps where the system appears to be rapidly moving to a new equilibrium state. The long-term trend probably is due to changes associated with plate tectonic processes, but the abrupt steps most likely reflect instabilities in the climate system as the slowly changing boundary conditions caused the climate to reach some threshold critical point. A more detailed analysis of abrupt steps comes from high-resolution studies of glacial-interglacial fluctuations in the Pleistocene. Comparison of climate transitions with the extinction record indicates that many climate and biotic transitions coincide. The Cretaceous-Tertiary extinction is not a candidate for an extinction event due to instabilities in the climate system. It is quite possible that more detailed comparisons and analysis will indicate some flaws in the climate instability-extinction hypothesis, but at present it appears to be a viable candidate as an alternate mechanism for causing abrupt environmental changes and extinctions.

Crowley, Thomas J.↗

Climate Lecture 4: Atmospheric Radiation

The climate system is well known for its great complexity and complex interactions that involve dynamic, thermodynamic, radiative, chemical, biological and human-driven processes. This view of the climate system has emerged from detailed measurements, meticulous record keeping, and theoretical analyses arising from, and made possible by the science and technology revolution that greatly advanced our understanding the role of physical processes that operate in the global climate system. These measurements also show very clearly that the global surface temperature has been rising over the past century, and that this is a consequence of human industrial activity.

Oinas, Valdar↗

Arctic Radiation-Cloud-Aerosol-Surface Interaction eXperiment (ARCSIX)

The Arctic climate system is amidst a transition. Over the last 40 years, the Arctic sea ice pack has transformed from a predominantly thick, multi-year sea ice to a predominantly thin, seasonal sea ice, termed the “New Arctic”. The observed rapid changes in the Arctic sea ice pack are an integral part of the Arctic Amplification phenomenon and represent a response to and a feedback on global climate change. As a result, the role of the Arctic within the global climate system is changing. Substantial uncertainty exists in our understanding of the atmosphere-surface interactions within the Arctic system, limiting our knowledge of the Arctic’s role in the future climate. Advancing our understanding of the Arctic climate system requires (1) measurements of the coupling between radiative processes and sea ice surface properties during summer sea ice melt; (2) measurements of the processes controlling the predominant Arctic cloud regimes and their properties (Fig. 1); and (3) improvements in the ability to monitor Arctic cloud, radiation, and sea ice processes from space. A key challenge is that thin, low clouds that are radiatively important to the Arctic surface energy budget can go undetected (Fig. 1). The Arctic Radiation-Cloud-Aerosol-Surface-Interaction eXperiment (ARCSIX) is an airborne campaign based at the Pituffik Space Base in Greenland from May-August 2024 sponsored by the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) to address these needs. ARCSIX consists of two airborne measurement campaigns taking place in two 3-week intervals during the early and late sea ice melt season: late May through early June and late July through early August, respectively. ARCSIX science is guided by three broad science questions that encapsulate the key influences of radiation-cloud-aerosol-sea ice coupling and a remote sensing and modeling objective: Science Question 1 (Radiation): What is the impact of the predominant summer Arctic cloud types on the radiative surface energy budget? Science Question 2 (Cloud Life Cycle): What processes control the evolution and maintenance of the predominant cloud regimes in the summertime Arctic? Science Question 3 (Sea Ice): How do the two-way interactions between surface properties and atmospheric forcings affect the sea ice evolution? Remote Sensing and Modeling Objective: Enhance our long-term space-based monitoring and predictive capabilities of Arctic sea ice, clouds, and aerosols.

Patrick Taylor↗

Observing Climate with Satellites - Are We on Thin Ice?

The Earth s climate is determined by irradiance from the Sun and properties of the atmosphere, oceans, and land that determine the reflection, absorption, and emission of energy within our atmosphere and at the Earth s surface. Since the 1970s, Earth-viewing satellites have complimented non-satellite geophysical observations with consistent, quantitative, and spatially-continuous measurements that have led to an unprecedented understanding of the Earth s climate system. I will describe the Earth s climate system as elaborated by satellite and in situ observations, review arguments against global warming, and show the convergence of evidence for human-caused warming of our planet.

Tucker, Compton↗

Modeling Impacts of Dust Mineralogy on Fast Climate Response

Mineralogical composition drives dust impacts on Earth's climate systems. However, most climate models still use homogeneous dust, without accounting for the temporal and spatial variation in mineralogy. To quantify the radiative impact of resolving dust mineralogy on Earth's climate, we implement and simulate the distribution of dust minerals (i.e., illite, kaolinite, smectite, hematite, calcite, feldspar, quartz, and gypsum) from Claquin et al. (1999) (C1999) and activate their interaction with radiation in the GFDL AM4.0 model. Resolving mineralogy reduces dust absorption compared to the homogeneous dust used in the standard GFDL AM4.0 model that assumes a globally uniform hematite volume content of 2.7 % (HD27). The reduction in dust absorption results in improved agreement with observation-based single-scattering albedo (SSA), radiative fluxes from CERES (the Clouds and the Earth's Radiant Energy System), and land surface temperature from the CRU (Climatic Research Unit) compared to the baseline HD27 model version. It also results in distinct radiative impacts on Earth's climate over North Africa. Over the 19-year (from 2001 to 2019) modeled period during JJA (June–July–August), the reduction in dust absorption in AM4.0 leads to a reduction of over 50 % in net downward radiation across the Sahara and approximately 20 % over the Sahel at the top of the atmosphere (TOA) compared to the baseline HD27 model version. The reduced dust absorption weakens the atmospheric warming effect of dust aerosols and leads to an alteration in land surface temperature, resulting in a decrease of 0.66 K over the Sahara and an increase of 0.7 K over the Sahel. The less warming in the atmosphere suppresses ascent and weakens the monsoon inflow from the Gulf of Guinea. This brings less moisture to the Sahel, which combined with decreased ascent induces a reduction of precipitation. To isolate the effect of reduced absorption compared to resolving spatial and temporal mineralogy, we carry out a simulation where the hematite volume content of homogeneous dust is reduced from 2.7 % to 0.9 % (HD09). The dust absorption (e.g., single-scattering albedo) of HD09 is comparable to that of the mineralogically speciated model on a global mean scale, albeit with a lower spatial variation that arises solely from particle size. Comparison of the two models indicates that the spatial inhomogeneity in dust absorption resulting from resolving mineralogy does not have significant impacts on Earth's radiation and climate, provided there is a similar level of dust absorption on a global mean scale before and after resolving dust mineralogy. However, uncertainties related to emission and distribution of minerals may blur the advantages of resolving minerals to study their impact on radiation, cloud properties, ocean biogeochemistry, air quality, and photochemistry. On the other hand, lumping together clay minerals (i.e., illite, kaolinite, and smectite), but excluding externally mixed hematite and gypsum, appears to provide both computational efficiency and relative accuracy. Nevertheless, for specific research, it may be necessary to fully resolve mineralogy to achieve accuracy.

Soil dust↗

Using Climate Regionalization to Understand Climate Forecast System Version 2 (CFSv2) Precipitation Performance for the Conterminous United States (CONUS)

Dynamically based seasonal forecasts are prone to systematic spatial biases due to imperfections in the underlying global climate model (GCM). This can result in low-forecast skill when the GCM misplaces teleconnections or fails to resolve geographic barriers, even if the prediction of large-scale dynamics is accurate. To characterize and address this issue, this study applies objective climate regionalization to identify discrepancies between the Climate Forecast SystemVersion 2 (CFSv2) and precipitation observations across the Contiguous United States (CONUS). Regionalization shows that CFSv2 1 month forecasts capture the general spatial character of warm season precipitation variability but that forecast regions systematically differ from observation in some transition zones. CFSv2 predictive skill for these misclassified areas is systematically reduced relative to correctly regionalized areas and CONUS as a whole. In these incorrectly regionalized areas, higher skill can be obtained by using a regional-scale forecast in place of the local grid cell prediction.

geographic barriers↗

JPL's Role in Advancing Earth System Science to Meet the Challenges of Climate and Environmental Change

Objective 2.1.1: Improve understanding of and improve the predictive capability for changes in the ozone layer, climate forcing, and air quality associated with changes in atmospheric composition. Objective 2.1.2: Enable improved predictive capability for weather and extreme weather events. Objective 2.1.3: Quantify, understand, and predict changes in Earth s ecosystems and biogeochemical cycles, including the global carbon cycle, land cover, and biodiversity. Objective 2.1.4: Quantify the key reservoirs and fluxes in the global water cycle and assess water cycle change and water quality. Objective 2.1.5: Improve understanding of the roles of the ocean, atmosphere, land and ice in the climate system and improve predictive capability for its future evolution. Objective 2.1.6: Characterize the dynamics of Earth s surface and interior and form the scientific basis for the assessment and mitigation of natural hazards and response to rare and extreme events. Objective 2.1.7: Enable the broad use of Earth system science observations and results in decision-making activities for societal benefits.

Earth observations↗

Living with a Star: New Opportunities in Sun-Climate Research

Enormous advances have been made in the last quarter century in all of these needed areas, covering the two essential halves of the Sun-Climate question: in what we know of solar variations and, equally important, in what we know of the climate system and of climatic changes. These research achievements allow us to examine all aspects of the question more directly and quantitatively than was ever possible before, and in the brighter light and more objective context of other known or suspected climate change mechanisms, including human-induced global greenhouse warming. Brief summaries of present status and current understanding are given below for nine facets of Sun-Climate science in which major progress has been made in recent years. At the same time it will be seen that in every instance, significant elements of uncertainty still remain, Some of the most important of these unanswered questions are considered later, in Section IV.

Eddy, John Allen↗

The PMIP4 Contribution to CMIP6 - Part 1: Overview and Over-Arching Analysis Plan

This paper is the first of a series of four GMD (Geoscientific Model Development) papers on the PMIP4-CMIP6 (Paleoclimate Modelling Intercomparison Project - Phase 4 -- Coupled Model Intercomparison Project - Phase 6) experiments. Part 2 (Otto-Bliesner et al., 2017) gives details about the two PMIP4-CMIP6 interglacial experiments, Part 3 (Jungclaus et al., 2017) about the last millennium experiment, and Part 4 (Kageyama et al., 2017) about the Last Glacial Maximum experiment. The mid-Pliocene Warm Period experiment is part of the Pliocene Model Intercomparison Project (PlioMIP) - Phase 2, detailed in Haywood et al. (2016). The goal of the Paleoclimate Modelling Intercomparison Project (PMIP) is to understand the response of the climate system to different climate forcings for documented climatic states very different from the present and historical climates. Through comparison with observations of the environmental impact of these climate changes, or with climate reconstructions based on physical, chemical, or biological records, PMIP also addresses the issue of how well state-of-the-art numerical models simulate climate change. Climate models are usually developed using the present and historical climates as references, but climate projections show that future climates will lie well outside these conditions. Palaeoclimates very different from these reference states therefore provide stringent tests for state-of-the-art models and a way to assess whether their sensitivity to forcings is compatible with palaeoclimatic evidence. Simulations of five different periods have been designed to address the objectives of the sixth phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6): the millennium prior to the industrial epoch (CMIP6 name: past1000); the mid-Holocene, 6000 years ago (midHolocene); the Last Glacial Maximum, 21,000 years ago (lgm); the Last Interglacial, 127,000 years ago (lig127k); and the mid-Pliocene Warm Period, 3.2 million years ago (midPliocene-eoi400). These climatic periods are well documented by palaeoclimatic and palaeoenvironmental records, with climate and environmental changes relevant for the study and projection of future climate changes. This paper describes the motivation for the choice of these periods and the design of the numerical experiments and database requests, with a focus on their novel features compared to the experiments performed in previous phases of PMIP and CMIP. It also outlines the analysis plan that takes advantage of the comparisons of the results across periods and across CMIP6 in collaboration with other MIPs.

climate↗

Comparative climatology - Mars and earth

Spacecraft missions to Mars during the 1960's and 1970's gave a remarkably detailed picture of the meteorological and climatological conditions that characterize its atmosphere. During the relatively brief history of close-up exploration of Mars, much of the ambiguity associated with the early telescopic observations has been resolved, and a new image of the red planet has emerged. Accurate measurements taken both from orbit and the surface reveal a cool, thin atmosphere that condenses, transports water, and generates clouds and dust storms, and that has a global-scale wind system not unlike the one known on earth. This paper highlights the current view of the Martian climate system and what controls it. For perspective, comparisons with earth's climate system are included where appropriate.

Haberle, R. M.↗