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DOE OSTI2026

Species-specific acoustic responses by bats to ultrasonic stimuli used for reducing bat-wind turbine interactions

An unintended consequence of wind energy generation is bat fatalities caused by wind turbine blade strikes. One potential approach to reduce collision risk is to use ultrasound to create an uncomfortable or disorienting airspace around wind turbine blades. Ultrasonic deterrents (UDs) have produced mixed results in experimental field studies at commercial wind energy facilities, with effectiveness varying by species and location. It is possible that some species can alter their normal echolocation characteristics to counter the signal of UDs. Our broad objective was to maximize the effectiveness of a UD by comparing changes in echolocation characteristics during three UD frequency emissions among species, between seasons, and between sex. We hypothesized that UD emissions with frequencies most similar to each species’ echolocation characteristics would be more likely to alter the bats’ echolocation, and bat responses would vary between seasons and sex for each species. We released wild-captured bats into a 60 m × 10 m × 4.4 m (length × width × height) flight cage located in San Marcos, Texas, USA, from July to October 2020 and March to May 2021 and monitored echolocation frequencies with ultrasonic microphones. We conducted trials on Brazilian free-tailed bats ( Tadarida brasiliensis ; n = 54), cave myotis ( Myotis velifer ; n = 44), red bats ( Lasiurus blossevilli , Lasiurus borealis ; n = 41), evening bats ( Nycticeius humeralis ; n = 32), and tricolored bats ( Perimyotis subflavus ; n = 8). We found that species with high-frequency echolocation calls altered their echolocation signatures more commonly during high-frequency UD emissions, whereas low-frequency bats altered their echolocation signatures more commonly during low-frequency UD emissions. Additionally, echolocation responses varied between seasons and sexes for several species. Variations in responses may be dependent on species migratory status, differences in mating behavior and mating season, hormonal differences between sexes and seasons, and/or constraints on echolocation adaptability. Our results offer insights into the variable effectiveness of UDs at reducing bat fatalities at wind turbines and provide information for potential adjustments to UDs for improved success.

17 WIND ENERGY↗

NASA NTRS1985

Integrated risk/cost planning models for the US Air Traffic system

A prototype network planning model for the U.S. Air Traffic control system is described. The model encompasses the dual objectives of managing collision risks and transportation costs where traffic flows can be related to these objectives. The underlying structure is a network graph with nonseparable convex costs; the model is solved efficiently by capitalizing on its intrinsic characteristics. Two specialized algorithms for solving the resulting problems are described: (1) truncated Newton, and (2) simplicial decomposition. The feasibility of the approach is demonstrated using data collected from a control center in the Midwest. Computational results with different computer systems are presented, including a vector supercomputer (CRAY-XMP). The risk/cost model has two primary uses: (1) as a strategic planning tool using aggregate flight information, and (2) as an integrated operational system for forecasting congestion and monitoring (controlling) flow throughout the U.S. In the latter case, access to a supercomputer is required due to the model's enormous size.

Mulvey, J. M.↗

NASA NTRS1987

Real-time operational planning for the U.S. air traffic system

This paper describes an integrated planning model for the U.S. air traffic system. The approach incorporates the dual objectives of monitoring collision risk while minimizing transportation costs. Specialized solution algorithms exploit the underlying structure of the model - especially for large-scale examples. The proposed formulation is tested with real-world data for the Indianapolis control sector. Additional experiments with a CRAY X-MP/24 supercomputer show that a full-scale model can be solved under real time conditions. Despite these advances, additional work is required in developing a practical system. Suggestions are made for combining advances in computer graphics and mathematical modeling.

Mulvey, John M.↗

NASA NTRS1997

The Space Shuttle Program Pre-Flight Meteoroid and Orbital Debris Risk/Damage Predictions and Post-Flight Damage Assessments

The pre-flight predictions and postflight assessments carried out in relation to a series of Space Shuttle missions are reviewed, and data are presented for the meteoroid and orbital debris damage observed on the Hubble Space Telescope during the 1994 Hubble repair mission. Pre-flight collision risk analyses are carried out prior to each mission, and in the case of an unacceptable risk, the mission profile is altered until the risk is considered to be acceptable. The NASA's BUMPER code is used to compute the probability of damage from debris and meteoroid particle impacts based on the Poisson statistical model for random events. The penetration probability calculation requires information concerning the geometry of the critical systems, the penetration resistance and mission profile parameters. Following each flight, the orbiter is inspected for meteoroid and space debris damage. The emphasis is on areas such as the radiator panels, the windows and the reinforced carbon-carbon structures on the leading wing edges and on the nose cap. The contents of damage craters are analyzed using a scanning electron microscope to determine the nature and origin of the impactor. Hypervelocity impact tests are often performed to simulate the observed damage and to estimate the nature of the damaging particles. The number and type of damage observed provides information concerning the orbital debris environment.

Levin, George M.↗

NASA NTRS2002

Tethers as Debris: Hydrocode Simulation of Impacts of Tether Fragments on Planar Aerospace Materials

Tethers promise to find use in a variety of space applications. Despite being narrow objects, their great lengths result in them having large total areas, and so tethers are quite susceptible to being severed by orbital debris. Extensive work has been done designing tethers that resist severs by small debris objects, and hence have longer working lives. It is from this perspective that most recent work has considered the tether - debris question. The potential of intact tethers, or severed tether fragments, as debris to pose a significant collision risk to other spacecraft has been less well studied. Understanding the consequences of such encounters is important in assessing the risks to other spacecraft posed by tethers. In this paper I discuss the damage that two types of tethers may produce on planar aerospace materials, as revealed by hyper- velocity impact simulations using the SPHC hydrodynamic code. Tether types considered include a single nylon line and a complex design including metal wires. Target materials considered include the aluminum plates typically used in debris shielding, and solar panels.

Evans, Steven W.↗

NASA NTRS2008

The NASA Robotic Conjunction Assessment Process: Overview and Operational Experiences

Orbital debris poses a significant threat to spacecraft health and safety. Recent events such as China's anti-satellite test and the Breeze-M rocket explosion have led to an even greater awareness and concern in the satellite community. Therefore, the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) has established requirements that routine conjunction assessment screening shall be performed for all maneuverable spacecraft having perigees less than 2000 km or within 200 km of geosynchronous altitude. NASA s Goddard Space Flight Center (GSFC) has developed an operational collision risk assessment process to protect NASA s high-value unmanned (robotic) assets that has been in use since January 2005. This paper provides an overview of the NASA robotic conjunction assessment process, including descriptions of the new tools developed to analyze close approach data and of the risk mitigation strategies employed. In addition, statistical data describing the number of conjunctions experienced are presented. A debris avoidance maneuver performed by Aura in June of 2008 is described in detail to illustrate the process.

Newman, Lauri Kraft↗

NASA NTRS2016

The Impact of New Trends in Satellite Launches on the Orbital Debris Environment

The main goal of this study is to examine the impact of new trends in satellite launch activities on the orbital debris environment and collision risk. As a foundation for the study, we developed a deployment scenario for satellites and associated rocket bodies based on publicly announced future missions. The upcoming orbital injection technologies, such as the new launch vehicles dedicated for small spacecraft and propulsive interstages, are also considered in this scenario. We then used a simulation tool developed in-house to propagate the objects within this scenario using variable-sized time-steps as small as one second to detect conjunctions between objects. The simulation makes it possible to follow the short- and long-term effects of a particular satellite or constellation in the space environment. Likewise, the effects of changes in the debris environment on a particular satellite or constellation can be evaluated. It is our hope that the results of this paper and further utilization of the developed simulation tool will assist in the investigation of more accurate deorbiting metrics to replace the generic 25-year disposal guidelines, as well as to guide future launches toward more sustainable and safe orbits.

conjunction analysis↗

NASA NTRS2017

UAS Well Clear Recovery Against Non-Cooperative Intruders Using Vertical Maneuvers

This paper documents a study that drove the development of a mathematical expression in the minimum operational performance standards (MOPS) of detect-and-avoid (DAA) systems for unmanned aircraft systems (UAS). This equation describes the conditions under which vertical maneuver guidance could be provided during recovery of well clear separation with a non-cooperative VFR aircraft in addition to horizontal maneuver guidance. Although suppressing vertical maneuver guidance in these situations increased the minimum horizontal separation from 500 to 800 feet, the maximum severity of loss of well clear increased in about 35 of the encounters compared to when a vertical maneuver was preferred and allowed. Additionally, analysis of individual cases led to the identification of a class of encounter where vertical rate error had a large effect on horizontal maneuvers due to the difficulty of making the correct left-right turn decision: crossing conflict with intruder changing altitude. These results supported allowing vertical maneuvers when UAS vertical performance exceeds the relative vertical position and velocity accuracy of the DAA tracker given the current velocity of the UAS and the relative vertical position and velocity estimated by the DAA tracker. Looking ahead, these results indicate a need to improve guidance algorithms by utilizing maneuver stability and near mid-air collision risk when determining maneuver guidance to regain well clear separation.

detect and avoid↗

NASA NTRS2017

S-band Fence Study Phase 1: Estimating the Increased Level of Screening Volume Incursions

Motivation: CARA assesses collision risk for a set of high-value satellites. Deploying the S-band Fence (SBF) radar system will significantly increase the number of conjunctions to process, possibly overloading the current CARA system.Phase 1 study objective: Estimate changes in screening volume incursion rates caused by the SBF deploymentPhase 2 study objective: Estimate associated changes in serious conjunction rates (e.g., Pc > 10-4) Phase 3 study objective: Develop methods for filtering and prioritizing the increased tasking, as requiredAll to be discussed today are Phase I results

conjunction assessment operations↗

NASA NTRS2019

Defining Well Clear Separation for Unmanned Aircraft Systems Operating with Non-Cooperative Aircraft

Detect-and-Avoid (DAA) systems are essential to the safe operations of Unmanned Aircraft Systems, and have the objectives of mitigating collisions with and remaining Well Clear of manned aircraft. This paper analyzes four candidate DAA Well Clear definitions for non-cooperative aircraft using mitigated performance metrics of DAA systems. These DAA Well Clear definitions were proposed in previous work based on their unmitigated collision risk and maneuver initiation range. In this work they are evaluated using safety and operational suitability metrics computed from a large number of representative encounters. Results suggest that although the four candidate DAA Well Clear definitions provide comparable safety, the alerting characteristics give preference for the DAA Well Clear definition without a temporal parameter.

Chen, Christine C.↗

NASA NTRS2019

Defining Well Clear Separation for Unmanned Aircraft Systems Operating with Noncooperative Aircraft

Well Clear↗

NASA NTRS2019

Management by Trajectory: Improving Predictability for Airspace Operations

In the present-day National Airspace System, the air traffic management system attempts to predict the trajectory for each flight based on the flight plan and scheduled or controlled departure time. However, gaps in trajectory data and models, coupled with tactical control actions that are not communicated to automation systems or other stakeholders, lead to trajectory predictions that are less accurate than they could be. This affects traffic flow management performance. Management by Trajectory (MBT) is a NASA concept for air traffic management in which every flight operates in accordance with a 4D trajectory that is negotiated between the airspace user and the FAA to account for the airspace user’s goals while complying with NAS constraints. The primary benefit of MBT is an improvement in system performance due to increased trajectory predictability and stability, which result from managing traffic in all four dimensions (2D route, vertical, and time), ensuring that changes to the flight’s trajectory are incorporated into the assigned trajectory, and utilizing improved time or arrival control standards. Importantly, the performance improvements support increasing efficiency without increasing collision risk. This paper provides an overview of MBT and describes fast-time simulation results evaluating the safety, performance, and efficiency effects of MBT.

Fernandes, Alicia B.↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Impact of Airborne Radar Uncertainties on Detect-and-Avoid Systems’ Performance

Impact of sensor uncertainty on Detect-and-Avoid (DAA) systems’ performance is investigated. Key metrics analyzed are the loss of DAA well clear ratio, the near-mid-air-collision risk ratio, the alert ratio, and the number of maneuvers per loss of DAA well clear. Sensitivity of these metrics to the magnitude of sensor uncertainty, pilots’ selection of maneuver, and surveillance range is investigated. Benefits of a dynamic buffer around the DAA well clear separation boundary, computed based on track accuracies, are also analyzed. These metrics are computed from open- and closed-loop simulations of a large number of representative encounters between an unmanned aircraft system and a manned aircraft. Results show that sensor uncertainty degrades safety metrics considerably but has only a minor effect on the number of maneuvers per loss of DAA well clear. The number of maneuvers, nonetheless, can be reduced by a 5◦ buffer away from the edge of the range of conflict-resulting heading in pilots’ selection of maneuver.

UAS↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Exploring the Impact of Compliance With Maneuvering Guidelines for Space Traffic Management

If the current estimate of proposed large constellations is realized, the near-Earth space environment will see more than 50,000 new satellites added to the catalog of resident space objects (RSOs) in the coming decade. This is an order of magnitude increase from the current population and poses new policy challenges as global operators seek to leverage the benefits these new satellite systems provide while also ensuring a sustainable approach to collision avoidance. Various guidelines have been proposed to date to support this effort, including the development of right of way rules to guide how a collision avoidance maneuver should be performed, and how the maneuver burden should be shared between the two satellites involved. However, it is very difficult to evaluate and compare proposed guidelines due to the complex nature of space traffic and the rapidly changing space environment. This study seeks to address this issue by utilizing the Virtual Environment for Space Traffic Analysis (VESTA), a high-fidelity simulation tool that has been developed at Georgia Tech over the past few years with the explicit purpose of evaluating the future of space traffic environment. Using this tool, a sensitivity study is performed that incorporates a likely set of future large constellations and provides metrics on the impact that a select set of proposed maneuvering guidelines would have on operators given realistic variations in spacecraft capabilities (e.g. maneuverability and propulsion capabilities), and other factors (owner-country, public vs. private, etc.). Specifically, this study compares three potential right of way rules: 1) a rule based on maneuverability proposed by the Space Safety Coalition, 2) a rule based on the geometry of the spacecraft rendezvous, and 3) a rule that equally distributes the maneuver burden between two operators, The results highlight general observations on the effectiveness and limitations of each of the proposed maneuvering guidelines. In addition to the choice of right of way rule, success of space traffic management will be significantly impacted by compliance – which operators, or how many operators, comply with the space traffic rules. The findings of this analysis have important implications for future methods that could be pursued to put in place right of way rules. For example, non-binding right of way rules may have variable levels of compliance that differ across actors. The impact of compliance by just one nation, or non-compliance by just one nation, help to demonstrate the impact of ensuring all major space actors coordinate on this effort. Overall, this analysis provides insight into the relative gains in safety (decrease in collision risk) that would likely result from more politically intense efforts to increase the number of countries implementing space traffic management rules.

conjunction assessment↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Safety Benefit Analysis of Conformance Monitoring for Situation Awareness in UTM

This work presents an analytical approach to address situations in drone operations when strategic coordination alone cannot ensure safety, requiring support from the Conformance Monitoring for Situation Awareness service and potentially other deconfliction services. This study focuses on evaluating the impact of off-nominal operations on both UA-to-UA collision risk and ground injury risk. It first establishes a relationship between the likelihood of off-nominal flights and the effectiveness of strategic coordination. The analysis then derives operational conditions where strategic coordination alone is insufficient to meet target safety requirements, particularly when the likelihood of off-nominal operations exceeds a certain threshold. The results indicate that higher operational tempo or density requires a lower likelihood of offnominal operations for strategic coordination to remain effective and meet safety targets. These findings provide quantitative operational thresholds for when CMSA services are necessary. This work contributes to the safety case for both strategic coordination and CMSA services, offering analysis on when CMSA should be employed to support strategic coordination in achieving the desired safety levels. It also establishes a framework for incorporating other deconfliction services in future safety case analyses.

Strategic deconfliction↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Safety Benefit Analysis of Conformance Monitoring for Situation Awareness in UTM

Strategic deconfliction↗

NASA NTRS2019

Assessment and Validation of Collision "Consequence" Method of Assessing Orbital Regime Risk Posed by Potential Satellite Conjunctions

Collision risk management theory requires a thorough assessment of both the likelihood and consequence of potential collision events. Satellite conjunction risk assessment has produced a highly-developed theory for assessing the likelihood of collision but neglects to account for the consequences of a given collision. While any collision may compromise the operational survival of a spacecraft, the amount of debris produced by the potential collision, and therefore the degree to which the orbital corridor may be compromised, can vary greatly among satellite conjunctions. Previous studies leveraged work on satellite collision modeling to develop a method to estimate whether a particular collision is likely to produce a relatively large or relatively small amount of resultant debris. The approximation of the number of debris pieces is dependent on a mass estimation process for the secondary objects utilizing the radar cross section of said object. This study examines the validity of the mass estimation process and establishes uncertainty bounds on the secondary object mass, which will be used to best approximate the possible consequences of a potential collision. This process is then applied to a large set of historical conjunctions to assess the frequency at which possible collisions may significantly augment the orbital debris environment in operational spacecraft.

Collision Consequence↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Risk Assessment of Obstacle Collision for UAVs under off-nominal conditions

Enabling operations of unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs) in low-altitude airspace, demands the need of robust risk monitoring framework for assessing the safety of airspace, ground-structures and people. As widespread applications emerge, the need of risk assessment becomes increasingly important for UAV flights beyond visual line-of-sight, especially subjected to off-nominal conditions introduced by component failures, degraded controllability or environmental disturbances such as wind gusts in an urban canyon. From a safety perspective, collision with obstacles can be detrimental not only to the vehicle and payload, but also to the structure and people on ground. Although it is safe to assume that approved UAVs would be equipped with collision avoidance systems, risk of collision which can be predicted for a flight trajectory even before the UAV encounters any obstacle is beneficial to resolve contingencies in its decision-making under off-nominal conditions. In this paper, a framework is presented for computing the risk of collision with obstacle based on a UAV's predicted trajectory, proximity to static and dynamic obstacles, sub-system state-of-health and external wind conditions. The conditional probability of trajectory deviation is generated using a Bayesian Belief Network (BBN) based on on-board sensor measurements. Further, a kinematic 3-DOF model is implemented to compute deviation in UAV's trajectory subjected to one case study of off-nominal condition i.e. wind gusts. Finally, the integrated risk factor is demonstrated on real data from experimental flights of an octocopter at NASA Langley Research Center, in presence of simulated obstacles and wind conditions. The proposed approach would enable risk-informed decision making process for timely mitigation of current and future unsafe events.

Portia Banerjee↗