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A Visual Atlas on Strategic Trade

Strategic trade concerns global trade flows of items with strategic military value. Items include goods with exclusive military use, but also dual-use items that can have both military and civil uses. Many countries require licenses for trade in strategic items as a measure of non-proliferation. For example, items listed for trade control by multilateral export control arrangements, such as the Nuclear Suppliers Group (NSG), typically are considered strategic goods. Analysts and officials involved in strategic trade control often lack quantitative global understanding of relevant trade patterns that would help them focus control and enforcement efforts, select companies for outreach and audit, target transactions for verification and inspection, and assess the potential economic impact of trade control policies. Many are unaware of available open source data on international trade that can inform these issues. Many do not know how to make use of such data or lack the tools necessary to do so. A book of charts dubbed a ‘Strategic Trade Atlas’ was developed to illustrate global trade flows of strategic goods and raise awareness of the availability and utility of open source trade data. The Atlas was prepared for the World Customs Organization (WCO) and its Member States to support their planning and execution of Strategic Trade Control Enforcement (STCE) operations. It offers macroscopic graphical representations of global trade flows classified under Harmonized System (HS) codes associated by the WCO with commodities described in its STCE Implementation Guide. While these HS codes are understood to also encompass many non-strategic items, they nevertheless provide a good overview of potentially strategic trade flows. These include HS codes covering nuclear and nuclear-related commodities listed by the NSG, such as uranium, heavy water, graphite, carbon fiber, nickel powder, beryllium, aluminum tubes, vacuum pumps, valves, machine tools, cameras, and many others. The Atlas uses trade data from the Base pour l’Analyse du Commerce International (BACI), a statistical elaboration of public UN Comtrade data. BACI data reconciles trade flows, taking into account asymmetries in import and export trade valuation. The data visualization approach facilitates rapid sense making, pattern recognition, and anomaly detection. Country-based profiles summarize vast amounts of data into readily understandable graphical representations of each country’s primary strategic imports and exports and their main trading partners. Commodity-based profiles provide a global view of major exporters, importers, and trade patterns for each commodity. These insights can inform the risk management approach employed by customs to allocate enforcement and compliance efforts.

customs controls↗

Nuclear Trade Atlas 2016-2020

Building on prior work developing a Strategic Trade Atlas promoting understanding of global trade flows of strategic goods, a Nuclear Trade Atlas was developed based on publicly available trade data. The Nuclear Trade Atlas examines trade patterns and trends for seventeen commodities based on a two-step assessment of the trade’s nuclear relevance: first estimating the probability that trade classified under a given Harmonized System (HS) code represents a specific commodity included in the export control lists of the Nuclear Suppliers Group, and second estimating the probability that the listed, often dual-use, commodity would be indicative of nuclear use. These estimates combine to provide a measure of the likelihood trade classified under a given HS code may be nuclear relevant. By exclusively focusing on the HS codes most highly ranked by this measure, the resulting data visualizations comprising the Nuclear Trade Atlas provide those responsible for regulating or monitoring nuclear trade greater understanding of relevant global trading patterns and trends. The Atlas includes both commodity- and country-based views of nuclear trade. It is published as a book and as an interactive tool. Besides trade data, the interactive Atlas also includes data about countries’ non-proliferation commitments, allowing users to take this information into consideration while analyzing specific trade flows.

strategic trade, world customs organization, trade↗

Improving the accuracy of freight mode choice models: A case study using the 2017 CFS PUF data set and ensemble learning techniques

Here, the US Census Bureau has collected two rounds of experimental data from the Commodity Flow Survey, providing shipment-level characteristics of nationwide commodity movements, published in 2012 (i.e., Public Use Microdata) and in 2017 (i.e., Public Use File). With this information, data-driven methods have become increasingly valuable for understanding detailed patterns in freight logistics. In this study, we used the 2017 Commodity Flow Survey Public Use File data set to explore building a high-performance freight mode choice model, considering three main improvements: (1) constructing local models for each separate commodity/industry category; (2) extracting useful geographical features, particularly the derived distance of each freight mode between origin/destination zones; and (3) applying additional ensemble learning methods such as stacking or voting to combine results from local and unified models for improved performance. The proposed method achieved over 92% accuracy without incorporating external information, an over 19% increase compared to directly fitting Random Forests models over 10,000 samples. Furthermore, SHAP (Shapely Additive Explanations) values were computed to explain the outputs and major patterns obtained from the proposed model. The model framework could enhance the performance and interpretability of existing freight mode choice models.

42 ENGINEERING↗

Self-healable Copolymer Composites for Extended Service H 2 Dispensing Hoses

In this project, we designed, synthesized and fabricated using X-winder technologies precommercialized novel, self-healingable commodity copolymer fiber-reinforced composites to extend the H 2 hose service life beyond the current target of 1000 fills. These studies demonstrated that these composites are able to withstand over 25,000 damage-repair cycles, which was the main objective of the proposed project, in the temperature range of -40 to +80 °C under variable pressures. When micro-cracks are formed after about 1,000 cycles/fueling per hose in the inner composite layer, these micro-cracks self-heal, thus extending the lifetime of a prototype inner layer of the hose. These composites were tested by exposure to H 2 fuel and demonstrated the ability to recover from mechanical damage. Thermomechanical testing combined with analysis of the stress and strain fields across the cross-section of the inner layer composite hoses also identified the ring-like stresses on the edge of inner layers arising from changes of the fiber winding angle directions from +45° to -45°. The developed novel concept that self-healing commodity copolymers can be used in the development of prototype composites for the extended service of H 2 dispensing hoses will have major implications for other energy-related technologies, where the extended service life in harsh environments is expected. In this project, we optimized, validated, and demonstrated novel copolymer fiber-reinforced composites for H 2 dispensing hose applications, which can be utilized in future manufacturing using commodity materials. The estimated cost of materials (exluding labor) is in the range of < $1.0/ft.

08 HYDROGEN↗

Unconventional Energy Resources: 2017 Review

This review presents six summaries for energy resource commodities including coal and unconventional resources, and an analysis of energy economics and technology for the different commodities, as prepared by the Energy Minerals Division of the American Association of Petroleum Geologists. Unconventional energy resources, as defined in this report, are those energy resources that do not occur in discrete oil or gas reservoirs held within stratigraphic and/or structural traps of sedimentary basins. As defined, such energy resources include coal, coalbed methane (CBM), tight gas and liquids, bitumen and heavy oil, uranium (U), thorium (Th), and associated rare earth elements of interest to industry, and geothermal. Current North American and global research and development activities are summarized for each of the unconventional energy resource commodities in separate topical sections of this report.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Carbon-efficient conversion of natural gas and natural-gas condensates to chemical products and intermediate feedstocks via catalytic metal–organic framework (MOF) chemistry

The net-zero carbon emission scenario of stopping hydrocarbon use as fuel is unlikely to end the extraction of fossil hydrocarbons. Remaining will be a sizable need for hydrocarbons as feedstocks for commodity chemicals destined for transformation into polymers, manufacturing-relevant intermediates, and value-added chemicals. Historically, the primary feedstock source has been oil. Over the past dozen years, however, fracking-based extraction of shale-trapped natural gas from known enormous reserves, in North America, has resulted in feedstock sourcing instead from wet shale gas. This shift has transformed the catalytic chemistry of commodity chemical manufacturing. In this paper, following a brief discussion of the merits and limitations of crystallographically well-defined metal–organic frameworks (MOFs) as model catalysts and catalyst-supports, we examined their applications for understanding and potentially enabling carbon-economical, catalytic transformation of C 1 , C 2 , C 3 , and C 4 components of natural gas to desirable commodity chemicals, intermediates, or model compounds.

03 NATURAL GAS↗

Engineering Novosphingobium aromaticivorans to produce cis,cis -muconic acid from biomass aromatics

ABSTRACT The platform chemical cis,cis- muconic acid ( cc MA) provides facile access to a number of monomers used in the synthesis of commercial plastics. It is also a metabolic intermediate in the β-ketoadipic acid pathway of many bacteria and, therefore, a current target for microbial production from abundant renewable resources via metabolic engineering. This study investigates Novosphingobium aromaticivorans DSM12444 as a chassis for the production of cc MA from biomass aromatics. The N. aromaticivorans genome predicts that it encodes a previously uncharacterized protocatechuic acid (PCA) decarboxylase and a catechol 1,2-dioxygenase, which would be necessary for the conversion of aromatic metabolic intermediates to cc MA. This study confirmed the activity of these two enzymes in vitro and compared their activity to ones that have been previously characterized and used in cc MA production. From these results, we generated one strain that is completely derived from native genes and a second that contains genes previously used in microbial engineering synthesis of this compound. Both of these strains exhibited stoichiometric production of cc MA from PCA and produced greater than 100% yield of cc MA from the aromatic monomers that were identified in liquor derived from alkaline pretreated biomass. Our results show that a strain completely derived from native genes and one containing homologs from other hosts are both capable of stoichiometric production of cc MA from biomass aromatics. Overall, this work combines previously unknown aspects of aromatic metabolism in N. aromaticivorans and the genetic tractability of this organism to generate strains that produce cc MA from deconstructed biomass. IMPORTANCE The production of commodity chemicals from renewable resources is an important goal toward increasing the environmental and economic sustainability of industrial processes. The aromatics in plant biomass are an underutilized and abundant renewable resource for the production of valuable chemicals. However, due to the chemical composition of plant biomass, many deconstruction methods generate a heterogeneous mixture of aromatics, thus making it difficult to extract valuable chemicals using current methods. Therefore, recent efforts have focused on harnessing the pathways of microorganisms to convert a diverse set of aromatics into a single product. Novosphingobium aromaticivorans DSM12444 has the native ability to metabolize a wide range of aromatics and, thus, is a potential chassis for conversion of these abundant compounds to commodity chemicals. This study reports on new features of N. aromaticivorans that can be used to produce the commodity chemical cis,cis -muconic acid from renewable and abundant biomass aromatics.

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗

Chimeric Fatty Acyl-Acyl Carrier Protein Thioesterases Provide Mechanistic Insight into Enzyme Specificity and Expression

Medium-chain fatty acids are commodity chemicals. Increasing and modifying the activity of thioesterases (TEs) on medium-chain fatty acyl-acyl carrier protein (acyl-ACP) esters may enable a high-yield microbial production of these molecules. The plant Cuphea palustris harbors two distinct TEs: C. palustris FatB1 ( Cp FatB1) (C 8 specificity, lower activity) and Cp FatB2 (C 14 specificity, higher activity) with 78% sequence identity. We combined structural features from these two enzymes to create several chimeric TEs, some of which showed nonnatural fatty acid production as measured by an enzymatic assay and gas chromatography-mass spectrometry (GC-MS). Substantially, chimera 4 exhibited an increased C 8 fatty acid production in correlation with improved microbial expression. This chimera led us to identify Cp FatB2-specific amino acids between positions 219 and 272 that lead to higher protein levels. Chimera 7 produced a broad range of fatty acids and appeared to combine a fatty acid binding pocket with long-chain specificity and an ACP interaction site that may activate fatty acid extrusion. Using homology modeling and in silico docking with ACP, we identified a “positive patch” within amino acids 162 to 218, which may direct the ACP interaction and regulate access to short-chain fatty acids. On the basis of this modeling, we transplanted putative ACP interaction sequences from Cp FatB1 into Cp FatB2 and created a chimeric thioesterase that produced medium-chain as well as long-chain fatty acids. Hence, the engineering of chimeric enzymes and characterizing their microbial activity and chain-length specificity suggested mechanistic insights into TE functions and also generated thioesterases with potentially useful properties. These observations may inform a rational engineering of TEs to allow alkyl chain length control. IMPORTANCE: Medium-chain fatty acids are important commodity chemicals. These molecules are used as plastic precursors and in shampoos and other detergents and could be used as biofuel precursors if production economics were favorable. Hydrocarbon-based liquid fuels must be optimized to have a desired boiling point, low freezing point, low viscosity, and other physical characteristics. Furthermore, the solubility and harshness of detergents and the flexibility of plastic polymers can be modulated. The length and distribution of the carbon chains in the hydrophobic tails determine these properties. The biological synthesis of cell membranes and fatty acids produces chains of primarily 16 to 18 carbons, which give rise to current biofuels. The ultimate goal of the work presented here is to engineer metabolic pathways to produce designer molecules with the correct number of carbons in a chain, so that such molecules could be used directly as specialty commodity chemicals or as fuels after minimal processing.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

Firm Synthesizer and Supply-chain Simulator (SynthFirm) v1.0

SynthFirm is a large-scale agent-based freight demand model which generates a complete synthetic population of firms in the U.S. and the business-to-business commodity flows between them. Using publicly available data sources as inputs, SynthFirm simulates detailed firm and fleet characteristics, commodity production and consumption, formation of supply chains, and selection of shipping modes, all of which are essential drivers of commodity flow at a disaggregate level.

Xu, Xiaodan↗

Firm Synthesizer and Supply-chain Simulator (SynthFirm) v2.0

SynthFirm is a national-scale agent-based freight demand model which generates a complete synthetic population of firms in the U.S. and the business-to-business commodity flows between them. Using publicly available data sources as inputs, SynthFirm simulates detailed firm and fleet characteristics, commodity production and consumption, formation of supply chains, and selection of shipping modes, all of which are essential drivers of commodity flow at a disaggregate level. The SynthFirm 2.0 version includes national commercial vehicle fleet generation, international trade simulation and automized model validation pipeline, which allows seemless deployment across the nation and build a comprehensive freight inventories at national scale or for selected region.

Yang, Hung-Chia [Lawrence Berkeley National Labora↗

Improving the Economic Viability of Biological Utilization of Coal Power Plant CO 2 by Improved Algae Productivity and Integration with Wastewater Treatment

The overall goal of this project was to improve the cost-effectiveness of systems using algae to capture and beneficially utilize CO 2 from the flue gas of coal-fired power plants. Algal biomass cultivation is an attractive alternative for carbon capture and utilization because it can uptake more CO 2 per land area than any other photosynthetic crop. Also, the resulting biomass can be used to make valuable large-market commodity products, such as biofuels and animal feed. However, the use of algal carbon capture has been limited by several factors including: (1) high costs for growing algae (>$\$1,300$/ton), (2) large land requirements for algae cultivation, and (3) environmental concerns about the large amount of water and nutrient inputs needed for growing algae. This project has taken direct aim at resolving these key limitations and demonstrated several viable approaches to improve the economic and environmental feasibility of algal carbon capture. In particular, this project demonstrated a significant increase in average annual algal productivity from baseline values of 8 g/m 2 -day to above 20 g/m 2 -day. This supports a much lower projected cost of algae production (<$\$500$/ton) and reduces land requirements by more than 50%. Additionally, this project confirmed the ability to grow multiple algae species with wastewater nutrients, which facilitates the potential for substantial new revenue streams for algae cultivation based on tipping fees for nutrient laden wastewater. This study highlighted that there is more potential value in wastewater nutrient treatment credits than in the primary commodity products made from algae. The use of wastewater inputs also mitigates the concerns associated with the large amount of water needed for growing algae. The algal biomass grown for this project using wastewater and simulated flue gas inputs were characterized for potential use as an animal feed ingredient. The algae had a protein content in the range of 35-40%, which is between some common commodity animal feed products— distiller’s grains (~25-30% protein) and soybean meal (45-50% protein). In-vitro digestion tests using cattle rumen fluids, showed that this algae biomass was best suited for use as “bypass protein”, which is digested in the animal intestine. Based on the protein content and amino acid profile of the algae grown in this study, it was estimated to have market value in the range of $\$190$-$\$280$/ton. There is potential for higher value feed products if the algae content of omega-3 fatty acids or antioxidants is accounted for. This project also did small scale demonstration of forward osmosis algae dewatering and nanofiltration of hydrothermal liquefaction aqueous products, which were shown to improve the cost and energy balance for producing algal products. When all the improvements demonstrated in this study were included in techno-economic analysis, it showed there was a viable pathway to profitable algal CO 2 utilization with a payback period in the range of six to ten years.

01 COAL, LIGNITE, AND PEAT↗

Plant Growth Promotion Diversity in Switchgrass-Colonizing, Diazotrophic Endophytes

Endophytic nitrogen-fixing (diazotrophic) bacteria are essential members of the microbiome of switchgrass ( Panicum virgatum ), considered to be an important commodity crop in bioenergy production. While endophytic diazotrophs are known to provide fixed atmospheric nitrogen to their host plant, there are many other plant growth-promoting (PGP) capabilities of these organisms to be demonstrated. The diversity of PGP traits across different taxa of switchgrass-colonizing endophytes is understudied, yet critical for understanding endophytic function and improving cultivation methods of important commodity crops. Here, we present the isolation and characterization of three diazotrophic endophytes: Azospirillum agricola R1C, Klebsiella variicola F10Cl, and Raoultella terrigena R1Gly. Strains R1C and F10Cl were isolated from switchgrass and strain R1Gly, while isolated from tobacco, is demonstrated herein to colonize switchgrass. Each strain exhibited highly diverse genomic and phenotypic PGP capabilities. Strain F10Cl and R1Gly demonstrated the highest functional similarity, suggesting that, while endophyte community structure may vary widely based on host species, differences in functional diversity are not a clearly delineated. The results of this study advance our understanding of diazotrophic endophyte diversity, which will allow us to design robust strategies to improve cultivation methods of many economically important commodity crops.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

A Demonstration of Blockchain-Based Energy Transactions between Laboratory Test Homes

Current electricity payment mechanisms and accessible value streams are inhibiting innovation in energy markets that stand to enhance grid security and resilience and enable increased integration of distributed energy resources (DER). In the era of near-instantaneous settlement times brought about by blockchain technology, the unidirectional (customer --> utility) monthly settlement of the incumbent infrastructure appears arcane. The lack of an effective market interface for DER results in fewer value streams for customers, underutilized assets for utilities, and reduced opportunities for vendors/manufacturers. A secure, real-time energy market enabled by blockchain technology presents a transformative opportunity to unlock innovations in DER and integrated controls. Blockchain technology provides a compelling pathway to energy market evolution, however there are several challenges to be addressed, including: simultaneous exchange of currency and energy commodities, ensuring customer privacy, incorporating transmission/distribution losses in energy trading contracts. To address the first of these - commodity tracking - we have established peer-to-peer energy transactions between two test homes at the National Renewable Energy Laboratory. Our research architecture demonstrates integration with high-fidelity metering for commodity tracking, and integration with NREL's foresee(TM) controls platform which orchestrates building loads and DER to execute the energy contract. The digital currency Dash, which supports enhanced privacy features and instant transactions, is employed for transaction settlement. BlockCypher's blockchain-agnostic web services are used to provide future flexibility in integrating various payment and contract options. In this paper we describe the technology, the research methodology employed, and present results on transaction execution speed and compliance with energy trading contracts.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

Polyketide synthases as a platform for chemical product design

To reduce the effects of greenhouse gas emissions on climate change, scientific efforts have sought to develop biofuels and bio‐based commodity chemicals as petrochemical replacements primarily for their environmental benefits. As the biological design space is far greater than chemical synthesis, there has been a drive to leverage this ability to create and replace fine and specialty chemicals. While polyketide synthases have traditionally been studied for their biosynthesis of pharmaceutical chemicals, the unique advantages of engineering polyketide synthases for the production of biofuels, commodity chemicals, and both pharmaceutical and nonpharmaceutical fine and specialty chemicals are discussed. With our increased understanding of polyketide biosynthetic logic, new computational tools for prospective polyketide synthesis pathways for the creation of existing and novel biochemicals are also outlined. © 2018 American Institute of Chemical Engineers AIChE J , 64: 4201–4207, 2018

Zargar, Amin↗

Introducing perennial biomass crops into agricultural landscapes to address water quality challenges and provide other environmental services: Integrating perennial bioenergy crops into agricultural landscapes

The world is faced with a difficult multiple challenge of meeting nutritional, energy, and other basic needs, under a limited land and water budget, of between 9 and 10 billion people in the next three decades, mitigating impacts of climate change, and making agricultural production resilient. More productivity is expected from agricultural lands, but intensification of production could further impact the integrity of our finite surface water and groundwater resources. Integrating perennial bioenergy crops in agricultural lands could provide biomass for biofuel and potential improvements on the sustainability of commodity crop production. This article provides an overview of ways in which research has shown that perennial bioenergy grasses and short rotation woody crops can be incorporated into agricultural production systems with reduced indirect land use change, while increasing water quality benefits. Current challenges and opportunities as well as future directions are also highlighted.

Cacho, J. F.↗

Advancing catalytic fast pyrolysis through integrated multiscale modeling and experimentation: Challenges, progress, and perspectives

Catalytic fast pyrolysis (CFP) is a conversion process that integrates rapid thermochemical depolymerization of solid feedstocks with catalytic transformation to yield small molecules for fuel and chemical products. This process is well-suited for the conversion of nonfossil feedstocks such as biomass and waste plastics, and thereby holds great potential for the production of renewable commodities. In spite of many technological developments in various aspects of CFP achieved over decades of research, this technology has yet to attain commercial success for the production of fuels and chemicals from renewable feedstocks. Effective CFP processes require careful coordination of chemical and physical phenomena that span very large length and time scales. A broad spectrum of scientific progress in both pyrolysis and catalytic upgrading has provided the foundation for successful deployment of CFP, although additional progress in process-scale integration is yet required for commercial realization. Modeling and simulation tools provide an important framework wherein the CFP technologies by be better understood and evaluated from a holistic perspective. Here we provide a detailed description of the multiscale phenomena underlying CFP, describe challenges and associated technical progress, and suggest strategies for an integrated approach to advance this technology toward commercialization.

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗

Portable SHMEMCache: A High-Performance Key-Value Store on OpenSHMEM and MPI

The integration of Big Data frameworks and HPC capabilities has drawn enormous interests in recent years. SHMEMCache is a distributed key-value store built on the OpenSHMEM global address space. It has solved several practical issues in leveraging OpenSHMEM’s one-sided operations for a distributed key-value store and providing efficient key-value operations on both commodity machines and supercomputers. However, being based solely on OpenSHMEM, SHMEMCache cannot leverage one-sided operations from a variety of software packages. This results in several limitations for SHMEMCache. First, we cannot make SHMEMCache available to a wider range of platforms. Second, an opportunity for potential performance improvement is missed. Third, there is a lack of deep understanding about how different one-sided operations can fit in with SHMEMCache and other distributed key-values in general. For example, the one-sided operations in OpenSHMEM and MPI have many differences in their interfaces, memory semantics and synchronization methods, all of which can have distinct implications and also increase the complexity in supporting both OpenSHMEM and MPI for SHMEMCache. Therefore, we have taken on an effort on leveraging different one-sided operations for SHMEMCache and proposed a design of portable SHMEMCache. Based on this new framework, we have supported both OpenSHMEM and MPI for SHMEMCache. We have also conducted an extensive set of experiments to compare the performance of the two versions on both commodity machines and the Titan supercomputer.

Computer Science↗