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Applied Routh approximation

The Routh approximation technique for reducing the complexity of system models was applied in the frequency domain to a 16th order, state variable model of the F100 engine and to a 43d order, transfer function model of a launch vehicle boost pump pressure regulator. The results motivate extending the frequency domain formulation of the Routh method to the time domain in order to handle the state variable formulation directly. The time domain formulation was derived and a characterization that specifies all possible Routh similarity transformations was given. The characterization was computed by solving two eigenvalue-eigenvector problems. The application of the time domain Routh technique to the state variable engine model is described, and some results are given. Additional computational problems are discussed, including an optimization procedure that can improve the approximation accuracy by taking advantage of the transformation characterization.

Merrill, W. C.

Design concepts of the Shuttle mission simulator

The Shuttle mission simulator is designed to simulate all phases of the Space Shuttle mission from the last 30 minutes of countdown to launch, ascent, operations in orbit, deorbit, reentry, and landing with full participation by astronaut trainees and the mission control center. This paper reviews the design concepts of the simulator with attention given to the simulation hardware, crew stations, instructor/operator stations, digital computers, flight computer simulation interface device, mission control center interface, visual systems, aural cue system, mathematical modeling, digital computer complex, motion system, and the payload accommodation system.

Bird, J. D.

Adaptive tracking for complex systems using reduced-order models

Reduced-order models are considered in the context of parameter adaptive controllers for tracking workspace trajectories. A dual-arm manipulation task is used to illustrate the methodology and provide simulation results. A parameter adaptive controller is designed to track the desired position trajectory of a payload using a four-parameter model instead of a full-order, nine-parameter model. Several simulations with different payload-to-arm mass ratios are used to illustrate the capabilities of the reduced-order model in tracking the desired trajectory.

Carignan, Craig R.

Adaptive tracking for complex systems using reduced-order models

Reduced-order models are considered in the context of parameter adaptive controllers for tracking workspace trajectories. A dual-arm manipulation task is used to illustrate the methodology and provide simulation results. A parameter adaptive controller is designed to track a payload trajectory using a four-parameter model instead of the full-order, nine-parameter model. Several simulations with different payload-to-arm mass ratios are used to illustrate the capabilities of the reduced-order model in tracking the desired trajectory.

Carnigan, Craig R.

An Initial Multi-Domain Modeling of an Actively Cooled Structure

A methodology for the simulation of turbine cooling flows is being developed. The methodology seeks to combine numerical techniques that optimize both accuracy and computational efficiency. Key components of the methodology include the use of multiblock grid systems for modeling complex geometries, and multigrid convergence acceleration for enhancing computational efficiency in highly resolved fluid flow simulations. The use of the methodology has been demonstrated in several turbo machinery flow and heat transfer studies. Ongoing and future work involves implementing additional turbulence models, improving computational efficiency, adding AMR.

Steinthorsson, Erlendur

Taking Climate Model Evaluation to the Next Level

Earth system models are complex and represent a large number of processes, resulting in a persistent spread across climate projections for a given future scenario. Owing to different model performances against observations and the lack of independence among models, there is now evidence that giving equal weight to each available model projection is suboptimal. This Perspective discusses newly developed tools that facilitate a more rapid and comprehensive evaluation of model simulations with observations, process-based emergent constraints that are a promising way to focus evaluation on the observations most relevant to climate projections, and advanced methods for model weighting. These approaches are needed to distil the most credible information on regional climate changes, impacts, and risks for stakeholders and policy-makers.

Eyring, Veronika

Medium-Range River Flood Forecasts Using a Long Short-Term Memory Network

River flooding and the impacts are a concern for decision makers throughout the United States. Accurate medium-range forecasts (~3-7 days) are critical for providing advanced outlooks to emergency management officials. Unfortunately, accurately forecasting rainfall-runoff and the subsequent rise and fall within rivers remain a challenge in hydrological modeling. While complex physical modeling systems are the standard for representing the hydrological processes, they are computationally demanding and can require extensive calibration. Further, uncertainties remain in the model parameters and input data. The use of machine learning can reduce some of the computational demand while maintaining high accuracy. Therefore, this project makes use of a Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) network which explicitly accounts for the time-dependent nature of rainfall-runoff modeling. The developed LSTM was trained to predict river gauge height, or stage height, based on time-lagged input features which include: gauge height to initialize the model, the NASA Short-term Prediction Research and Transition Center’s instance of the Land Information System (SPoRT-LIS) relative soil moisture to describe the rainfall infiltration rate, and 6-hr Multi-Radar Multi-Sensor quantitative precipitation estimate (MRMS QPE). The developed LSTM based system is then used to produce 7-day forecasts with a 6-hr temporal resolution using three different quantitative precipitation forecasts (QPF) from the NWS’s Weather Prediction Center (WPC), the NCEP Global Forecast System (GFS) model and the National Blend of Models (NBM). This trained modeling system has been implemented as an experimental product at over 100 different rivers in collaboration with at multiple National Weather Service (NWS) Forecast Offices and River Forecast Centers (RFC) across the eastern half of the United States. The developed LSTM model achieved average Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency (NSE) 0.89 higher than the equivalent medium-range National Water Model ensemble member forecast over a 7-day forecast. In addition to the initial development and evaluation, this project has continued to expand. While the initial model was developed for precipitation dominated basins, expansion of the project has taken it to basins effected by snow melt. This presentation will provide an overview of the project with focus on recent developments on incorporating snow melt processes into the model.

Andrew T. White

Automated Discovery and Modeling of Sequential Patterns Preceding Events of Interest

The integration of emerging data manipulation technologies has enabled a paradigm shift in practitioners' abilities to understand and anticipate events of interest in complex systems. Example events of interest include outbreaks of socio-political violence in nation-states. Rather than relying on human-centric modeling efforts that are limited by the availability of SMEs, automated data processing technologies has enabled the development of innovative automated complex system modeling and predictive analysis technologies. We introduce one such emerging modeling technology - the sequential pattern methodology. We have applied the sequential pattern methodology to automatically identify patterns of observed behavior that precede outbreaks of socio-political violence such as riots, rebellions and coups in nation-states. The sequential pattern methodology is a groundbreaking approach to automated complex system model discovery because it generates easily interpretable patterns based on direct observations of sampled factor data for a deeper understanding of societal behaviors that is tolerant of observation noise and missing data. The discovered patterns are simple to interpret and mimic human's identifications of observed trends in temporal data. Discovered patterns also provide an automated forecasting ability: we discuss an example of using discovered patterns coupled with a rich data environment to forecast various types of socio-political violence in nation-states.

Rohloff, Kurt

A Model-Based Approach to Engineering Behavior of Complex Aerospace Systems

One of the most challenging yet poorly defined aspects of engineering a complex aerospace system is behavior engineering, including definition, specification, design, implementation, and verification and validation of the system's behaviors. This is especially true for behaviors of highly autonomous and intelligent systems. Behavior engineering is more of an art than a science. As a process it is generally ad-hoc, poorly specified, and inconsistently applied from one project to the next. It uses largely informal representations, and results in system behavior being documented in a wide variety of disparate documents. To address this problem, JPL has undertaken a pilot project to apply its institutional capabilities in Model-Based Systems Engineering to the challenge of specifying complex spacecraft system behavior. This paper describes the results of the work in progress on this project. In particular, we discuss our approach to modeling spacecraft behavior including 1) requirements and design flowdown from system-level to subsystem-level, 2) patterns for behavior decomposition, 3) allocation of behaviors to physical elements in the system, and 4) patterns for capturing V&V activities associated with behavioral requirements. We provide examples of interesting behavior specification patterns, and discuss findings from the pilot project.

SysML

Operator function modeling: An approach to cognitive task analysis in supervisory control systems

In a study of models of operators in complex, automated space systems, an operator function model (OFM) methodology was extended to represent cognitive as well as manual operator activities. Development continued on a software tool called OFMdraw, which facilitates construction of an OFM by permitting construction of a heterarchic network of nodes and arcs. Emphasis was placed on development of OFMspert, an expert system designed both to model human operation and to assist real human operators. The system uses a blackboard method of problem solving to make an on-line representation of operator intentions, called ACTIN (actions interpreter).

Mitchell, Christine M.

Problems in large-scale structural optimization

A general design optimization model for large complex systems is defined. Major features of the model that challenge various optimization algorithms are discussed. Requirements of a model optimization algorithm are identified. Objectives of the study of various algorithms are defined and a basis for conducting such a study is developed. Primal as well as transformation methods are analytically studied and a unified viewpoint of various methods is presented. Several numerical examples are solved using different methods to study their performance. Conclusions drawn from the study are presented and discussed. Areas of future research in nonlinear programming as well as structural optimization are identified and discussed.

Arora, J. S.

Modeling and Performance Considerations for Automated Fault Isolation in Complex Systems

The purpose of this paper is to document the modeling considerations and performance metrics that were examined in the development of a large-scale Fault Detection, Isolation and Recovery (FDIR) system. The FDIR system is envisioned to perform health management functions for both a launch vehicle and the ground systems that support the vehicle during checkout and launch countdown by using suite of complimentary software tools that alert operators to anomalies and failures in real-time. The FDIR team members developed a set of operational requirements for the models that would be used for fault isolation and worked closely with the vendor of the software tools selected for fault isolation to ensure that the software was able to meet the requirements. Once the requirements were established, example models of sufficient complexity were used to test the performance of the software. The results of the performance testing demonstrated the need for enhancements to the software in order to meet the demands of the full-scale ground and vehicle FDIR system. The paper highlights the importance of the development of operational requirements and preliminary performance testing as a strategy for identifying deficiencies in highly scalable systems and rectifying those deficiencies before they imperil the success of the project

Ferrell, Bob

Aircraft Flaps Modeling in OpenMDAO

The goal of this project was to develop a model for a single subsystem in the aerodynamics discipline, in this case the flaps of an aircraft. Flaps are high-lift devices used by planes to allow for quicker takeoffs, and slower landings. A computer-based aircraft model of the flaps of an aircraft was developed using the Python based open-source framework OpenMDAO. OpenMDAO is used to develop multi-disciplinary aircraft models using gradient-based optimization; design optimization (MDO) is concerned with solving design problems involving numerical models of complex engineering systems. There were 4 components in the model; each has input values, output variables, and equations to calculate said outputs. The variables and equations are sourced from NASA Fortran code from the 1970s, in a project called the General Aviation Synthesis Program (GASP). These variables and equations which create the model are being converted to Python for ease of use. The flaps model developed will be integrated into a larger model of a conventional aircraft’s flight phases. All subsystems of the model will first be built using the parameters of a Boeing 737 MAX-8, to validate its functionality and accuracy. Then, the aircraft model will be used for hybrid-electric research; running optimizations to improve efficiency, minimize fuel burn, and advance hybrid-electric technology in the aerospace field.

Computer-based aircraft modeling

A Hardware Model Validation Tool for Use in Complex Space Systems

One of the many technological hurdles that must be overcome in future missions is the challenge of validating as-built systems against the models used for design. We propose a technique composed of intelligent parameter exploration in concert with automated failure analysis as a scalable method for the validation of complex space systems. The technique is impervious to discontinuities and linear dependencies in the data, and can handle dimensionalities consisting of hundreds of variables over tens of thousands of experiments.

Davies, Misty Dawn

Cognitive engineering models in space systems

NASA space systems, including mission operations on the ground and in space, are complex, dynamic, predominantly automated systems in which the human operator is a supervisory controller. Models of cognitive functions in complex systems are needed to describe human performance and form the theoretical basis of operator workstation design, including displays, controls, and decision aids. Currently, there several candidate modeling methodologies. They include the Rasmussen abstraction/aggregation hierarchy and decision ladder, the goal-means network, the problem behavior graph, and the operator function model. The research conducted under the sponsorship of this grant focuses on the extension of the theoretical structure of the operator function model and its application to NASA Johnson mission operations and space station applications. The initial portion of this research consists of two parts. The first is a series of technical exchanges between NASA Johnson and Georgia Tech researchers. The purpose is to identify candidate applications for the current operator function model; prospects include mission operations and the Data Management System Testbed. The second portion will address extensions of the operator function model to tailor it to the specific needs of Johnson applications. At this point, we have accomplished two things. During a series of conversations with JSC researchers, we have defined the technical goal of the research supported by this grant to be the structural definition of the operator function model and its computer implementation, OFMspert. Both the OFM and OFMspert have matured to the point that they require infrastructure to facilitate use by researchers not involved in the evolution of the tools. The second accomplishment this year was the identification of the Payload Deployment and Retrieval System (PDRS) as a candidate system for the case study. In conjunction with government and contractor personnel in the Human-Computer Interaction Lab, the PDRS was identified as the most accessible system for the demonstration. Pursuant to this a PDRS simulation was obtained from the HCIL and an initial knowledge engineering effort was conducted to understand the operator's tasks in the PDRS application. The preliminary results of the knowledge engineering effort and an initial formulation of an operator function model (OFM) are contained in the appendices.

Mitchell, Christine M.

ASSIST: User's manual

Semi-Markov models can be used to compute the reliability of virtually any fault-tolerant system. However, the process of delineating all of the states and transitions in a model of a complex system can be devastingly tedious and error-prone. The ASSIST program allows the user to describe the semi-Markov model in a high-level language. Instead of specifying the individual states of the model, the user specifies the rules governing the behavior of the system and these are used by ASSIST to automatically generate the model. The ASSIST program is described and illustrated by examples.

Johnson, S. C.

Structural dynamics system model reduction

Loads analysis for structural dynamic systems is usually performed by finite element models. Because of the complexity of the structural system, the model contains large number of degree-of-freedom. The large model is necessary since details of the stress, loads and responses due to mission environments are computed. However, a simplified model is needed for other tasks such as pre-test analysis for modal testing, and control-structural interaction studies. A systematic method of model reduction for modal test analysis is presented. Perhaps it will be of some help in developing a simplified model for the control studies.

Chen, J. C.