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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
NASA NTRS2020

Algorithm Performance Dataset from NASA Open-Source Software

NASA Langley Research Center has recently developed and released the open-source software Multi Model Monte Carlo with Python (MXMCPy- LAR-19756-1) as a general capability for computing the statistics of outputs from an expensive, high-fidelity model by leveraging faster, low-fidelity models for speedup. Given a fixed computational budget and a collection of models with varying cost/accuracy, multi model Monte Carlo (MC) seeks a sample allocation strategy across the models that results in an estimator with optimal variance reduction. MXMCPy is a versatile tool that enables convenient access to many existing multi-model MC approaches (over a dozen algorithms available) within one modular and extensible package [1]. With MXMCPy, users can easily compare existing methods to determine the best choice for their particular problem,while developers have a basis for implementing and sharing new variance reduction approaches. However,there is currently very little understanding about which algorithm will perform best for a given problem (defined by the correlation between and relative cost of the available models) without a brute force search.

Geoffrey F Bomarito↗
NASA NTRS2014

Optimizing Integrated Terminal Airspace Operations Under Uncertainty

In the terminal airspace, integrated departures and arrivals have the potential to increase operations efficiency. Recent research has developed geneticalgorithm- based schedulers for integrated arrival and departure operations under uncertainty. This paper presents an alternate method using a machine jobshop scheduling formulation to model the integrated airspace operations. A multistage stochastic programming approach is chosen to formulate the problem and candidate solutions are obtained by solving sample average approximation problems with finite sample size. Because approximate solutions are computed, the proposed algorithm incorporates the computation of statistical bounds to estimate the optimality of the candidate solutions. A proof-ofconcept study is conducted on a baseline implementation of a simple problem considering a fleet mix of 14 aircraft evolving in a model of the Los Angeles terminal airspace. A more thorough statistical analysis is also performed to evaluate the impact of the number of scenarios considered in the sampled problem. To handle extensive sampling computations, a multithreading technique is introduced.

air traffic optimization↗
NASA NTRS2008

Communication Limits Due to Photon-Detector Jitter

A theoretical and experimental study was conducted of the limit imposed by photon-detector jitter on the capacity of a pulse-position-modulated optical communication system in which the receiver operates in a photon-counting (weak-signal) regime. Photon-detector jitter is a random delay between impingement of a photon and generation of an electrical pulse by the detector. In the study, jitter statistics were computed from jitter measurements made on several photon detectors. The probability density of jitter was mathematically modeled by use of a weighted sum of Gaussian functions. Parameters of the model were adjusted to fit histograms representing the measured-jitter statistics. Likelihoods of assigning detector-output pulses to correct pulse time slots in the presence of jitter were derived and used to compute channel capacities and corresponding losses due to jitter. It was found that the loss, expressed as the ratio between the signal power needed to achieve a specified capacity in the presence of jitter and that needed to obtain the same capacity in the absence of jitter, is well approximated as a quadratic function of the standard deviation of the jitter in units of pulse-time-slot duration.

Moision, Bruce E.↗
NASA NTRS1991

Numerical study of axial turbulent flow over long cylinders

The effects of transverse curvature are investigated by means of direct numerical simulations of turbulent axial flow over cylinders. Two cases of Reynolds number of about 3400 and layer-thickness-to-cylinder-radius ratios of 5 and 11 were simulated. All essential turbulence scales were resolved in both calculations, and a large number of turbulence statistics were computed. The results are compared with the plane channel results of Kim et al. (1987) and with experiments. With transverse curvature the skin friction coefficient increases and the turbulence statistics, when scaled with wall units, are lower than in the plane channel. The momentum equation provides a scaling that collapses the cylinder statistics, and allows the results to be interpreted in light of the plane channel flow. The azimuthal and radial length scales of the structures in the flow are of the order of the cylinder diameter. Boomerang-shaped structures with large spanwise length scales were observed in the flow.

Neves, J. C.↗
NASA NTRS2020

Multi Model Monte Carlo with Python (MXMCPy)

Multi Model Monte Carlo with Python (\mxmc {}) is a software package developed as a general capability for computing the statistics of outputs from an expensive, high-fidelity model by leveraging faster, low-fidelity models for speedup. Motivated by uncertainty propagation problems where classical Monte Carlo (MC) simulation is computationally intractable, various multi-model MC approaches have recently emerged that yield unbiased estimators with significantly reduced variance relative to MC for the same cost. These existing methods include multi-level Monte Carlo (MLMC), multi-fidelity Monte Carlo (MFMC), and approximate control variates (ACV). Given a fixed computational budget and a collection of models with varying cost/accuracy, each method seeks a sample allocation strategy across the models that results in an estimator with optimal variance reduction. \mxmc {} is a versatile tool that enables convenient access to many existing multi-model MC approaches within one modular and extensible package. With \mxmc {}, users can easily compare existing methods to determine the best choice for their particular problem, while developers have a basis for implementing and sharing new variance reduction approaches. This report introduces the \mxmc {} software, providing a summary of the problem-solving workflow for users as well as a brief overview of the code layout for developers.

Geoffrey F Bomarito↗
NASA NTRS1991

Computational simulation of the creep-rupture process in filamentary composite materials

A computational simulation of the internal damage accumulation which causes the creep-rupture phenomenon in filamentary composite materials is developed. The creep-rupture process involves complex interactions between several damage mechanisms. A statistically-based computational simulation using a time-differencing approach is employed to model these progressive interactions. The finite element method is used to calculate the internal stresses. The fibers are modeled as a series of bar elements which are connected transversely by matrix elements. Flaws are distributed randomly throughout the elements in the model. Load is applied, and the properties of the individual elements are updated at the end of each time step as a function of the stress history. The simulation is continued until failure occurs. Several cases, with different initial flaw dispersions, are run to establish a statistical distribution of the time-to-failure. The calculations are performed on a supercomputer. The simulation results compare favorably with the results of creep-rupture experiments conducted at the Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory.

Slattery, Kerry T.↗
NASA NTRS2016

Evaluation of the Sensitivity of the Amazonian Diurnal Cycle to Convective Intensity in Reanalyses

Model parameterizations of tropical deep convection are unable to reproduce the observed diurnal and spatial variability of convection in the Amazon, which contributes to climatological biases in the water cycle and energy budget. Convective intensity regimes are defined using percentiles of daily minimum 3-hourly averaged outgoing longwave radiation (OLR) from Clouds and the Earth's Radiant Energy System (CERES). This study compares the observed spatial variability of convective diurnal cycle statistics for each regime to MERRA-2 and ERA-Interim (ERA) reanalysis data sets. Composite diurnal cycle statistics are computed for daytime hours (06:00-21:00 local time) in the wet season (December-January-February). MERRA-2 matches observations more closely than ERA for domain averaged composite diurnal statistics-specifically precipitation. However, ERA reproduces mesoscale features of OLR and precipitation phase associated with topography and the propagation of the coastal squall line. Both reanalysis models are shown to underestimate extreme convection.

Itterly, Kyle F.↗
NASA NTRS1993

The three-dimensional structure of cumulus clouds over the ocean. 1: Structural analysis

Thermal channel (channel 6, 10.4-12.5 micrometers) images of five Landsat thematic mapper cumulus scenes over the ocean are examined. These images are thresholded using the standard International Satellite Cloud Climatology Project (ISCCP) thermal threshold algorithm. The individual clouds in the cloud fields are segmented to obtain their structural statistics which include size distribution, orientation angle, horizontal aspect ratio, and perimeter-to-area (PtA) relationship. The cloud size distributions exhibit a double power law with the smaller clouds having a smaller absolute exponent. The cloud orientation angles, horizontal aspect ratios, and PtA exponents are found in good agreement with earlier studies. A technique also is developed to recognize individual cells within a cloud so that statistics of cloud cellular structure can be obtained. Cell structural statistics are computed for each cloud. Unicellular clouds are generally smaller (less than or equal to 1 km) and have smaller PtA exponents, while multicellular clouds are larger (greater than or equal to 1 km) and have larger PtA exponents. Cell structural statistics are similar to those of the smaller clouds. When each cell is approximated as a quadric surface using a linear least squares fit, most cells have the shape of a hyperboloid of one sheet, but about 15% of the cells are best modeled by a hyperboloid of two sheets. Less than 1% of the clouds are ellipsoidal. The number of cells in a cloud increases slightly faster than linearly with increasing cloud size. The mean nearest neighbor distance between cells in a cloud, however, appears to increase linearly with increasing cloud size and to reach a maximum when the cloud effective diameter is about 10 km; then it decreases with increasing cloud size. Sensitivity studies of threshold and lapse rate show that neither has a significant impact upon the results. A goodness-of-fit ratio is used to provide a quantitative measure of the individual cloud results. Significantly improved results are obtained after applying a smoothing operator, suggesting the eliminating subresolution scale variations with higher spatial resolution may yield even better shape analyses.

Kuo, Kwo-Sen↗
NASA NTRS2008

Statistical Methodologies to Integrate Experimental and Computational Research

Development of advanced algorithms for simulating engine flow paths requires the integration of fundamental experiments with the validation of enhanced mathematical models. In this paper, we provide an overview of statistical methods to strategically and efficiently conduct experiments and computational model refinement. Moreover, the integration of experimental and computational research efforts is emphasized. With a statistical engineering perspective, scientific and engineering expertise is combined with statistical sciences to gain deeper insights into experimental phenomenon and code development performance; supporting the overall research objectives. The particular statistical methods discussed are design of experiments, response surface methodology, and uncertainty analysis and planning. Their application is illustrated with a coaxial free jet experiment and a turbulence model refinement investigation. Our goal is to provide an overview, focusing on concepts rather than practice, to demonstrate the benefits of using statistical methods in research and development, thereby encouraging their broader and more systematic application.

Parker, P. A.↗
NASA NTRS1973

Statistical models of lunar rocks and regolith

The mathematical, statistical, and computational approaches used in the investigation of the interrelationship of lunar fragmental material, regolith, lunar rocks, and lunar craters are described. The first two phases of the work explored the sensitivity of the production model of fragmental material to mathematical assumptions, and then completed earlier studies on the survival of lunar surface rocks with respect to competing processes. The third phase combined earlier work into a detailed statistical analysis and probabilistic model of regolith formation by lithologically distinct layers, interpreted as modified crater ejecta blankets. The fourth phase of the work dealt with problems encountered in combining the results of the entire project into a comprehensive, multipurpose computer simulation model for the craters and regolith. Highlights of each phase of research are given.

Marcus, A. H.↗
NASA NTRS1989

Cloud field classification based on textural features

An essential component in global climate research is accurate cloud cover and type determination. Of the two approaches to texture-based classification (statistical and textural), only the former is effective in the classification of natural scenes such as land, ocean, and atmosphere. In the statistical approach that was adopted, parameters characterizing the stochastic properties of the spatial distribution of grey levels in an image are estimated and then used as features for cloud classification. Two types of textural measures were used. One is based on the distribution of the grey level difference vector (GLDV), and the other on a set of textural features derived from the MaxMin cooccurrence matrix (MMCM). The GLDV method looks at the difference D of grey levels at pixels separated by a horizontal distance d and computes several statistics based on this distribution. These are then used as features in subsequent classification. The MaxMin tectural features on the other hand are based on the MMCM, a matrix whose (I,J)th entry give the relative frequency of occurrences of the grey level pair (I,J) that are consecutive and thresholded local extremes separated by a given pixel distance d. Textural measures are then computed based on this matrix in much the same manner as is done in texture computation using the grey level cooccurrence matrix. The database consists of 37 cloud field scenes from LANDSAT imagery using a near IR visible channel. The classification algorithm used is the well known Stepwise Discriminant Analysis. The overall accuracy was estimated by the percentage or correct classifications in each case. It turns out that both types of classifiers, at their best combination of features, and at any given spatial resolution give approximately the same classification accuracy. A neural network based classifier with a feed forward architecture and a back propagation training algorithm is used to increase the classification accuracy, using these two classes of features. Preliminary results based on the GLDV textural features alone look promising.

Sengupta, Sailes Kumar↗
NASA NTRS1983

Establishing homologies in protein sequences

Computer-based statistical techniques used to determine homologies between proteins occurring in different species are reviewed. The technique is based on comparison of two protein sequences, either by relating all segments of a given length in one sequence to all segments of the second or by finding the best alignment of the two sequences. Approaches discussed include selection using printed tabulations, identification of very similar sequences, and computer searches of a database. The use of the SEARCH, RELATE, and ALIGN programs (Dayhoff, 1979) is explained; sample data are presented in graphs, diagrams, and tables and the construction of scoring matrices is considered.

Dayhoff, M. O.↗
NASA NTRS2015

Real-Time Kennedy Space Center and Cape Canaveral Air Force Station High-Resolution Model Implementation and Verification

Customer: NASA's Launch Services Program (LSP), Ground Systems Development and Operations (GSDO), and Space Launch System (SLS) programs. NASA's LSP, GSDO, SLS and other programs at Kennedy Space Center (KSC) and Cape Canaveral Air Force Station (CCAFS) use the daily and weekly weather forecasts issued by the 45th Weather Squadron (45 WS) as decision tools for their day-to-day and launch operations on the Eastern Range (ER). For example, to determine if they need to limit activities such as vehicle transport to the launch pad, protect people, structures or exposed launch vehicles given a threat of severe weather, or reschedule other critical operations. The 45 WS uses numerical weather prediction models as a guide for these weather forecasts, particularly the Air Force Weather Agency (AFWA) 1.67 kilometer Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model. Considering the 45 WS forecasters' and Launch Weather Officers' (LWO) extensive use of the AFWA model, the 45 WS proposed a task at the September 2013 Applied Meteorology Unit (AMU) Tasking Meeting requesting the AMU verify this model. Due to the lack of archived model data available from AFWA, verification is not yet possible. Instead, the AMU proposed to implement and verify the performance of an ER version of the AMU high-resolution WRF Environmental Modeling System (EMS) model (Watson 2013) in real-time. The tasking group agreed to this proposal; therefore the AMU implemented the WRF-EMS model on the second of two NASA AMU modeling clusters. The model was set up with a triple-nested grid configuration over KSC/CCAFS based on previous AMU work (Watson 2013). The outer domain (D01) has 12-kilometer grid spacing, the middle domain (D02) has 4-kilometer grid spacing, and the inner domain (D03) has 1.33-kilometer grid spacing. The model runs a 12-hour forecast every hour, D01 and D02 domain outputs are available once an hour and D03 is every 15 minutes during the forecast period. The AMU assessed the WRF-EMS 1.33-kilometer domain model performance for the 2014 warm season (May-September). Verification statistics were computed using the Model Evaluation Tools, which compared the model forecasts to observations. The mean error values were close to 0 and the root mean square error values were less than 1.8 for mean sea-level pressure (millibars), temperature (degrees Kelvin), dewpoint temperature (degrees Kelvin), and wind speed (per millisecond), all very small differences between the forecast and observations considering the normal magnitudes of the parameters. The precipitation forecast verification results showed consistent under-forecasting of the precipitation object size. This could be an artifact of calculating the statistics for each hour rather than for the entire 12-hour period. The AMU will continue to generate verification statistics for the 1.33-kilometer WRF-EMS domain as data become available in future cool and warm seasons. More data will produce more robust statistics and reveal a more accurate assessment of model performance. Once the formal task was complete, the AMU conducted additional work to better understand the wind direction results. The results were stratified diurnally and by wind speed to determine what effects the stratifications would have on the model wind direction verification statistics. The results are summarized in the addendum at the end of this report. In addition to verifying the model's performance, the AMU also made the output available in the Advanced Weather Interactive Processing System II (AWIPS II). This allows the 45 WS and AMU staff to customize the model output display on the AMU and Range Weather Operations AWIPS II client computers and conduct real-time subjective analyses. In the future, the AMU will implement an updated version of the WRF-EMS model that incorporates local data assimilation. This model will also run in real-time and be made available in AWIPS II.

Numerical Weather Prediction↗
NASA NTRS2018

Realistic Covariance Generation for the GPM Spacecraft

We present several different methods for generating realistic predictive covariance, including Monte-Carlo simulations and more direct linear methods which require the addition of process noise. The Monte-Carlo simulation starts with an epoch uncertainty sample basis and propagates each trial to a time of interest in the future. The variance-covariance of the state elements as well as other higher order sample statistics can be readily computed from the propagated sample. While this method preserves the nonlinear effects on the propagated uncertainty, it is computationally intensive as a statistically significant sample size must be considered in the propagation process. Moreover, if the epoch covariance is optimistic, this can result in an underestimation of the prediction error. Another method is to propagate a state sensitivity matrix simultaneously with the satellite state, which allows the epoch covariances to be propagated forward in a linear fashion. This method does not preserve the non-linearity of the satellite state uncertainty but is much less computationally intensive. The propagated state covariance is the scaled to represent the realistic level of GPM state uncertainty via a "e-tuning process." The tuning process generates an inflation factor based on the observed error statistics of the predictive satellite trajectories when compared to the definitive ones. Difference tuning strategies are considered and compared via Goodness-of-Fit method testing for the Gaussian properties of the scaled covariance.

prediction error↗
NASA NTRS1965

Prediction analysis and management decisions.

Prediction analysis techniques /PAT/ using statistical methods, computers, error analysis, etc, for system weight, performance and other parameter predictions in Apollo program

PROGRAM MANAGEMENT↗