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DOE OSTI2022

A Conditional Autoencoder for Galaxy Photometric Parameter Estimation

Astronomical photometric surveys routinely image billions of galaxies, and traditionally infer the parameters of a parametric model for each galaxy. This approach has served us well, but the computational expense of deriving a full posterior probability distribution function is a challenge for increasingly ambitious surveys. In this paper, we use deep learning methods to characterize galaxy images, training a conditional autoencoder on mock data. The autoencoder can reconstruct and denoise galaxy images via a latent space engineered to include semantically meaningful parameters, such as brightness, location, size, and shape. Our model recovers galaxy fluxes and shapes on mock data with a lower variance than the Hyper Suprime-Cam photometry pipeline, and returns reasonable answers even for inputs outside the range of its training data. When applied to data in the training range, the regression errors on all extracted parameters are nearly unbiased with a variance near the Cramr-Rao bound.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2024

Estimating the Contributions to Human Error Probability from the Convolution of the Distribution of Time Available and Time Required

As part of their duties, Human Reliability Analysis must often evaluate if crews in nuclear power plants (NPPs) can complete tasks associated with a human-failure event within time limits. For example, the time required in NPP scenarios is determined by systematic and structured walkthroughs, feasibility studies, recorded times from training exercises, and interviews with experienced operators and experts. Typically, a point estimate is derived for the estimate (mean, maximum, or 95th percentile of time required). Using point-estimate values can mask the risk associated with variability among crews, plant conditions and set-up, environmental conditions, and other impact factors under which these actions are executed. While point estimates for time required and time available have served the industry well, without considering the uncertainty they could lead to biased understanding about the risk. The Integrated Human Event Analysis System - General Methodology (IDHEAS-G) model (developed by the US Nuclear Regulatory Commission, NRC) for human error probability calculates human error probability by summing two probabilities: insufficient time and cognitive error. As such, the model takes a more holistic approach by considering the full distributions for time required and time available to calculate the human error probability because the time available to complete the task is insufficient. In this study, we expand on the work of the NRC and discuss methods for estimating these time considerations. For example, for the time required, the impact of Performance Influencing Factors (PIFs) on the distribution was divided into impacts that are aleatory in nature, such as crew-to-crew variability, and those that are epistemic (i.e., the PIFs). Starting with the factors that introduce aleatory uncertainty, a first-order distribution was developed from a large set of time required (i.e., NPP task completion times) data for the range of operator actions that occur in the NPP control room under simulated accident conditions. The first-order distribution can then be adjusted to account for epistemic uncertainty using research associated with the impact of applicable PIFs on the time required. We also develop guidance for analysts to address the probability distributions for the time available. The guidance we developed on how to estimate time required and time available distributions is based on the identification of pertinent research and data, data analyses, and expert knowledge elicitation.

human error probability, human performance, time e↗

DOE OSTI2026

GPM IMERG V07B and V06B: Evaluation Using Ground-Based Radar Observations and Application in Global Mesoscale Convective System Tracking

This study evaluates the latest Global Precipitation Measurement (GPM) Integrated Multi-satellitE Retrievals for GPM (IMERG V07B) against its predecessor V06B, for studying mesoscale convective systems (MCSs). Both versions are compared using ground-based radar and rain gauge data from five meteorologically diverse regions: the contiguous United States (including eastern coastlines), Amazon rainforest, central Argentina mountains, equatorial Indian Ocean, and northern Australia across multiple temporal (0.5–6 hours) and spatial scales (0.1°–0.25°). An updated global MCS tracking dataset is developed by integrating satellite-observed infrared brightness temperature with IMERG V07B. Comparation of IMERG against radar observations reveals that IMERG demonstrates better performance in capturing the probability distribution and quantitative contributions of rainfall (from no-rain to intense-rain conditions) over tropical oceans than over land, with marked improvements in IMERG V07B for heavy-to-intense rain (> 10 mm h-1). Over land, systematic biases persist: IMERG tends to overestimate light-to-moderate rain (1–10 mm h-1) while underestimating heavy-to-intense rain. Additionally, aggregating IMERG to coarser resolutions (3-hourly or 0.25°) improves consistency with radar observations, outperforming the 1-hourly/0.1° resolution. The new IMERG V07B-based global MCS dataset exhibits consistent statistical characteristics with the V06B-based dataset, despite lower mean rain rates and reduced heavy precipitation contributions. These findings offer valuable insights for utilizing IMERG V07B in global precipitation studies, MCS characterization, and model evaluation.

Zhang, Sihan↗

DOE OSTI2022

Kinetic theory of particle-in-cell simulation plasma and the ensemble averaging technique

Abstract We derive the kinetic theory of fluctuations in physically and numerically stable particle-in-cell (PIC) simulations of electrostatic plasmas. The starting point is the single-time correlation at the start of the simulation between the statistical fluctuations of the weighted densities of macroparticle centers in the plasma particle phase-space. The fluctuations are associated with different initial conditions, typically due to the random initial conditions (in velocity space) of the macroparticles/simulation plasma, assigned according to their initial distribution of probability. The single-time correlations at all time steps and in each spatial grid cell are then determined from the Laplace–Fourier transforms of the discretized Klimontovich-like equation for the macroparticles and Maxwell’s equations for the fields, as computed by modern PIC codes. We recover the expressions for the electrostatic field and the plasma particle density fluctuation autocorrelation spectra as well as the kinetic equations describing the average evolution of PIC-simulated plasma particles, first derived by Langdon (1970b Proc. 4th Conf. Numerical Simulation of Plasmas ) using a test macroparticle approach perturbing a discretized Vlasovian plasma and then averaging the obtained physical quantity over the initial macroparticle velocity distribution. We generalize and extend these results to the modern algorithms in PIC codes using arbitrary macroparticle weights. Analytical estimates of statistical fluctuation amplitudes are derived as a function of the plasma simulation parameters, using the central limit theorem in the limit of a large number of macroparticles per cell. The theory is then used to analyze the ensemble averaging technique of PIC simulations where statistical averages are performed over ensembles of PIC simulations, modeling the same plasma physics problem but using different statistical realizations of the initial distribution functions of the macroparticles. This method is illustrated by linear Landau damping uncovering (from noise, which is usually considered numerical) the physical fluctuations driven by a single small amplitude electrostatic wave perturbing a PIC simulation plasma in equilibrium.

fluctuations correlations↗

DOE OSTI2020

Astromers: Nuclear Isomers in Astrophysics

In this work, we develop a method to compute thermally mediated transition rates between the ground state and long-lived isomers in nuclei. We also establish criteria delimiting a thermalization temperature above which a nucleus may be considered a single species and below which it must be treated as two separate species: a ground-state species and an astrophysical isomer ("astromer") species. Below the thermalization temperature, the destruction rates dominate the internal transition rates between the ground state and the isomer. If the destruction rates also differ greatly from one another, the nuclear levels fall out of or fail to reach thermal equilibrium. Without thermal equilibrium, there may not be a safe assumption about the distribution of occupation probability among the nuclear levels when computing nuclear reaction rates. In these conditions, the isomer has astrophysical consequences and should be treated as a separate astromer species which evolves separately from the ground state in a nucleosynthesis network. We apply our transition-rate methods and perform sensitivity studies on a few well-known astromers. We also study transitions in several other isomers of likely astrophysical interest.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2021

Global Sensitivity Analysis of Large Distribution System with PVs using Deep Gaussian Process

Global sensitivity analysis (GSA) of the voltage to uncertain power injection variations plays an important role for appropriate Volt-VAR optimization. This paper proposes a data-driven GSA method for large-scale distribution systems with a large number of uncertain sources. Specifically, the deep Gaussian process is used to identify the mapping relationship between uncertain power injections and voltages. This allows us to resort to the analysis of variance framework to calculate the Sobol indices for GSA. Unlike the existing polynomial chaos expansion and Gaussian process-based approaches, our proposed method has much better scalability. Test results on the EPRI 1747-node K1 circuit with a different number and different probability distributions of uncertain sources demonstrate that the proposed method can achieve accurate GSA under various conditions.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2022

Optimizing aircraft flows at airports using data driven predicted capabilities

A method for safe and efficient use of airport runway capacity includes receiving, at an air traffic control system at an airport, airport data related to movement areas of the airport, time data related to a time period, aircraft data related to a plurality of aircraft expected to operate into and out of the airport during the time period, and environmental data related to environmental conditions predicted for the airport during the time period. The method further includes computing a probability distribution for inter-aircraft spacing by applying the airport data, the time data, the aircraft data, and the environmental data to a trained Bayesian network, producing the probability distribution for the inter-aircraft spacing as an output observation of the trained Bayesian network, and, using the probability distribution and a confidence value, identifying an inter-aircraft spacing value for the plurality of aircraft expected to operate into and out of the airport during the time period.

Sweet, Douglas↗

DOE OSTI2019

A Probabilistic Data-Driven Method for Photovoltaic Pseudo-Measurement Generation in Distribution Systems

This paper presents a probabilistic data-driven method to model the uncertainty of distributed photovoltaic (PV) generation to enhance the observability of distribution grids with a high penetration of renewable resources. The proposed method employs a kernel density estimation (KDE) technique to develop the conditional probability density function (PDF) of PV outputs given the time of the day, using the measurement data from observed PV systems. Then time series of output power of unmeasured PV generators, located at the same grid, are generated according to the corresponding PDF and used as pseudo-measurements in distribution system state estimation (DSSE). The proposed model has been tested and verified using real PV data and utility networks.

Yuan, Yuxuan↗

DOE OSTI2020

Trainability of ReLU networks and Data-dependent Initialization

Here, in this paper, we study the trainability of rectified linear unit (ReLU) networks at initialization. A ReLU neuron is said to be dead if it only outputs a constant for any input. Two death states of neurons are introduced–tentative and permanent death. A network is then said to be trainable if the number of permanently dead neurons is sufficiently small for a learning task. We refer to the probability of a randomly initialized network being trainable as trainability. We show that a network being trainable is a necessary condition for successful training, and the trainability serves as an upper bound of training success rates. In order to quantify the trainability, we study the probability distribution of the number of active neurons at initialization. In many applications, overspecified or overparameterized neural networks are successfully employed and shown to be trained effectively. With the notion of trainability, we show that overparameterization is both a necessary and a sufficient condition for achieving a zero training loss. Furthermore, we propose a data-dependent initialization method in an overparameterized setting. Numerical examples are provided to demonstrate the effectiveness of the method and our theoretical findings.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

DOE OSTI2014

Radio efficiency of pulsars

We investigate radio emission efficiency, ξ, of pulsars and report a near-linear inverse correlation between ξ and the spin-down power, E-dot , as well as a near-linear correlation between ξ and pulsar age, τ. This is a consequence of very weak, if any, dependences of radio luminosity, L, on pulsar period, P, and the period derivative, P-dot , in contrast to X-ray or γ-ray emission luminosities. The analysis of radio fluxes suggests that these correlations are not due to a selection effect, but are intrinsic to the pulsar radio emission physics. We have found that, although with a large variance, the radio luminosity of pulsars is ≈10{sup 29} erg s{sup –1}, regardless of the position in the P-- P-dot diagram. Within such a picture, a model-independent statement can be made that the death line of radio pulsars corresponds to an upper limit in the efficiency of radio emission. If we introduce the maximum value for radio efficiency into the Monte Carlo-based population syntheses we can reproduce the observed sample using the random luminosity model. Using the Kolmogorov-Smirnov test on a synthetic flux distribution reveals a high probability of reproducing the observed distribution. Our results suggest that the plasma responsible for generating radio emission is produced under similar conditions regardless of pulsar age, dipolar magnetic field strength, and spin-down rate. The magnetic fields near the pulsar surface are likely dominated by crust-anchored, magnetic anomalies, which do not significantly differ among pulsars, leading to similar conditions for generating electron-positron pairs necessary to power radio emission.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2012

Calibration of a distributed flood forecasting model with input uncertainty using a Bayesian framework

In the process of calibrating distributed hydrological models, accounting for input uncertainty is important, yet challenging. In this study, we develop a Bayesian model to estimate parameters associated with a geomorphology‐based hydrological model (GBHM). The GBHM model uses geomorphic characteristics to simplify model structure and physically based methods to represent hydrological processes. We divide the observed discharge into low‐ and high‐flow data, and use the first‐order autoregressive model to describe their temporal dependence. We consider relative errors in rainfall as spatially distributed variables and estimate them jointly with the GBHM parameters. The joint posterior probability distribution is explored using Markov chain Monte Carlo methods, which include Metropolis‐Hastings, delay rejection adaptive Metropolis, and Gibbs sampling methods. We evaluate the Bayesian model using both synthetic and field data sets. The synthetic case study demonstrates that the developed method generally is effective in calibrating GBHM parameters and in estimating their associated uncertainty. The calibration ignoring input errors has lower accuracy and lower reliability compared to the calibration that includes estimation of the input errors, especially under model structure uncertainty. The field case study shows that calibration of GBHM parameters under complex field conditions remains a challenge. Although jointly estimating input errors and GBHM parameters improves the continuous ranked probability score and the consistency of the predictive distribution with the observed data, the improvement is incremental. To better calibrate parameters in a distributed model, such as GBHM here, we need to develop a more complex model and incorporate much more information.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2026

HFIR Steady State Heat Transfer Code (HSSHTC) Statistical Uncertainty Analysis

HSSHTC, the safety basis steady state TH code for HFIR, uses a highly conservative approach in which all input and calculation uncertainties are resolved simultaneously at their most limiting setting. This results in excessive conservatism which does not account for the high unlikelihood of such simultaneous worst-case conditions. The present study explores an alternative approach, BEPU, in which reasonable working assumptions for the probability distribution of each input uncertainty are used to determine a relationship between burnout power margin and core fuel failure probability. This was performed under a philosophy of perturbing uncertainty parameters already defined within the HSSHTC methodology while preserving the HSSHTC calculation approach and solution methodology itself. Based on the assumptions employed in this study, the BEPU approach resulted in a 0.29 increase in burnout power ratio (25 MW increase in burnout power) compared to the latest HSSHTC calculations of C-HFIR-2026-004. The study can be refined in the future by employing fuel fabrication data to provide more realistic input distributions. Future changes to the HSSHTC methodology would potentially allow a more comprehensive treatment of uncertainties which may further increase the burnout power ratio.

Wysocki, Aaron [ORNL] (ORCID:0000000222043779)↗

DOE OSTI2022

How Many Elements Matter?

Some studies of stars' multielement abundance distributions suggest at least 5–7 significant dimensions, but others show that many elemental abundances can be predicted to high accuracy from [Fe/H] and [Mg/Fe] (or [Fe/H] and age) alone. We show that both propositions can be, and are, simultaneously true. We adopt a machine-learning technique known as normalizing flow to reconstruct the probability distribution of Milky Way disk stars in the space of 15 elemental abundances measured by APOGEE. Conditioning on T eff and $\mathrm{log}\,g$ minimizes the differential systematics. After further conditioning on [Fe/H] and [Mg/Fe], the residual scatter for most abundances is σ [X/H] ≲ 0.02 dex, consistent with APOGEE's reported statistical uncertainties of ~0.01–0.015 dex and intrinsic scatter of 0.01–0.02 dex. Despite the small scatter, residual abundances display clear correlations between elements, which we show are too large to be explained by measurement uncertainties or by the finite sampling noise. We must condition on at least seven elements to reduce the correlations to a level consistent with the observational uncertainties. Our results demonstrate that cross-element correlations are a much more sensitive probe of a hidden structure than dispersion, and they can be measured precisely in a large sample even if the star-by-star measurement noise is comparable to the intrinsic scatter. We conclude that many elements have an independent story to tell, even for the mundane disk stars and elements produced by the core-collapse and Type Ia supernovae. The only way to learn these lessons is to measure the abundances directly, and not merely infer them.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2014

An analytical model of the large neutral regions during the late stage of reionization

In this paper, we investigate the nature and distribution of large neutral regions during the late epoch of reionization. In the 'bubble model' of reionization, the mass distribution of large ionized regions ('bubbles') during the early stage of reionization is obtained by using the excursion set model, where the ionization of a region corresponds to the first up-crossing of a barrier by random trajectories. We generalize this idea and develop a method to predict the distribution of large-scale neutral regions during the late stage of reionization, taking into account the ionizing background after the percolation of H II regions. The large-scale neutral regions, which we call 'neutral islands', are not individual galaxies or minihalos, but larger regions where fewer galaxies formed and hence ionized later and they are identified in the excursion set model with the first down-crossings of the island barrier. Assuming that the consumption rate of ionizing background photons is proportional to the surface area of the neutral islands, we obtained the size distribution of the neutral islands. We also take the 'bubbles-in-island' effect into account by considering the conditional probability of up-crossing a bubble barrier after down-crossing the island barrier. We find that this effect is very important. An additional barrier is set to avoid islands being percolated through. We find that there is a characteristic scale for the neutral islands, while the small islands are rapidly swallowed up by the ionizing background; this characteristic scale does not change much as the reionization proceeds.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2018

Sensitivity of Probable Maximum Flood in a Changing Environment

With likely increases in probable maximum precipitation (PMP) in a changing environment, critical infrastructures such as major reservoirs and nuclear power plants are subject to elevated risk. To understand how factors such as PMP variability, climate change, land use land cover (LULC) change, antecedent soil moisture conditions, and reservoir storage may individually or jointly affect the magnitude of probable maximum flood (PMF), we conducted integrated hydrometeorological simulations involving both the Weather Research Forecasting model and the distributed hydrologic model (DHSVM) over the Alabama–Coosa–Tallapoosa (ACT) River Basin in the southeastern United States. A total of 120 relative humidity–maximized PMP storms under historic and projected future climate conditions were used to drive DHSVM in current and projected future LULC conditions. Overall, PMP and PMF are projected to increase significantly over the ACT River Basin. Sources of meteorological forcing data sets and climate change were found to be the most sensitive factors affecting PMF, followed by antecedent soil moisture, reservoir storage, and then LULC change. In conclusion, the ensemble of PMP and PMF simulations, along with their sensitivity, allows us to better quantify the potential risks associated with hydroclimatic extreme events to critical infrastructures for energy–water security.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2016

Minimizing Uncertainties Impact in Decision Making with an Applicability Study for Economic Power Dispatch

This report summaries the work performed under the LDRD project on the preliminary study on knowledge automation, where specific focus has been made on the investigation of the impact of uncertainties of human decision making onto the optimization of the process operation. At first the statistics on signals from the Brain-Computing Interface (BCI) is analyzed so as to obtain the uncertainties characterization of human operators during the decision making phase using the electroencephalogram (EEG) signals. This is then followed by the discussions of an architecture that reveals the equivalence between optimization and closed loop feedback control design, where it has been shown that all the optimization problems can be transferred into the control design problem for closed loop systems. This has led to a “closed loop” framework, where the structure of the decision making is shown to be subjected to both process disturbances and controller’s uncertainties. The latter can well represent the uncertainties or randomness occurred during human decision making phase. As a result, a stochastic optimization problem has been formulated and a novel solution has been proposed using probability density function (PDF) shaping for both the cost function and the constraints using stochastic distribution control concept. A sufficient condition has been derived that guarantees the convergence of the optimal solution and discussions have been made for both the total probabilistic solution and chanced constrained optimization which have been well-studied in optimal power flows (OPF) area. A simple case study has been carried out for the economic dispatch of powers for a grid system when there are distributed energy resources (DERs) in the system, and encouraging results have been obtained showing that a significant savings on the generation cost can be expected.

96 KNOWLEDGE MANAGEMENT AND PRESERVATION↗

DOE OSTI2021

A probabilistic creep model incorporating test condition, initial damage, and material property uncertainty

Uncertainty is prevalent in the creep resistance of alloys, where at elevated temperature and low pressure, rupture can range across logarithmic decades. In this study, a probabilistic continuum-damage-mechanics (CDM)-based model is derived to capture the uncertainty of creep resistance. To meet this objective, creep data for alloy 304 Stainless Steel is gathered. A constitutive model, “Sinh”, is calibrated deterministically to determine the statistical variability of the material properties. Three sources of uncertainty are injected into the model: test condition (stress and temperature), initial damage, and material properties. Probabilistic simulations are carried out by (a) calibrating probability distribution functions (pdfs) for each source of uncertainty (b) randomly sampling the pdfs using Monte Carlo methods and (c) executing simulations to replicate the uncertain creep behavior. A sensitivity analysis is performed to evaluate the relative effect of each source of uncertainty. In full probabilistic simulations, the cumulative uncertainty of creep behavior is evaluated. The probabilistic model accurately predicts the creep deformation and rupture of the available experiments. The probabilistic model is validated for interpolation but lacks extrapolation ability. Several future works are proposed to further improve the model.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

DOE OSTI2017

Environmental Selection, Dispersal, and Organism Interactions Shape Community Assembly in High-Throughput Enrichment Culturing

A central goal of microbial ecology is to identify and quantify the forces that lead to observed population distributions and dynamics. However, these forces, which include environmental selection, dispersal, and organism interactions, are often difficult to assess in natural environments. Here in this paper, we present a method that links microbial community structures with selective and stochastic forces through highly replicated subsampling and enrichment of a single environmental inoculum. Specifically, groundwater from a well-studied natural aquifer was serially diluted and inoculated into nearly 1,000 aerobic and anaerobic nitrate-reducing cultures, and the final community structures were evaluated with 16S rRNA gene amplicon sequencing. We analyzed the frequency and abundance of individual operational taxonomic units (OTUs) to understand how probabilistic immigration, relative fitness differences, environmental factors, and organismal interactions contributed to divergent distributions of community structures. We further used a most probable number (MPN) method to estimate the natural condition-dependent cultivable abundance of each of the nearly 400 OTU cultivated in our study and infer the relative fitness of each. Additionally, we infer condition-specific organism interactions and discuss how this high-replicate culturing approach is essential in dissecting the interplay between overlapping ecological forces and taxon-specific attributes that underpin microbial community assembly. IMPORTANCE Through highly replicated culturing, in which inocula are subsampled from a single environmental sample, we empirically determine how selective forces, interspecific interactions, relative fitness, and probabilistic dispersal shape bacterial communities. These methods offer a novel approach to untangle not only interspecific interactions but also taxon-specific fitness differences that manifest across different cultivation conditions and lead to the selection and enrichment of specific organisms. Additionally, we provide a method for estimating the number of cultivable units of each OTU in the original sample through the MPN approach.

16S RNA↗