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Effects of Increasing Drag on Conjunction Assessment

Conjunction Assessment Risk Analysis relies heavily on the computation of the Probability of Collision (Pc) and the understanding of the sensitivity of this calculation to the position errors as defined by the covariance. In Low Earth Orbit (LEO), covariance is predominantly driven by perturbations due to atmospheric drag. This paper describes the effects of increasing atmospheric drag through Solar Cycle 24 on Pc calculations. The process of determining these effects is found through analyzing solar flux predictions on Energy Dissipation Rate (EDR), historical relationship between EDR and covariance, and the sensitivity of Pc to covariance. It is discovered that while all LEO satellites will be affected by the increase in solar activity, the relative effect is more significant in the LEO regime around 700 kilometers in altitude compared to 400 kilometers. Furthermore, it is shown that higher Pc values can be expected at larger close approach miss distances. Understanding these counter-intuitive results is important to setting Owner/Operator expectations concerning conjunctions as solar maximum approaches.

Frigm, Ryan Clayton↗

Human Spaceflight Conjunction Assessment: Lessons Learned

This viewgraph presentation reviews the process of a human space flight conjunction assessment and lessons learned from the more than twelve years of International Space Station (ISS) operations. Also, the application of these lessons learned to a recent ISS conjunction assessment with object 84180 on July 16, 2009 is also presented.

Smith, Jason T.↗

A Tuned Single Parameter for Representing Conjunction Risk

Satellite conjunction assessment risk analysis is a subjective enterprise that can benefit from quantitative aids and, to this end, NASA/GSFC has developed a fuzzy logic construct - called the F-value - to attempt to provide a statement of conjunction risk that amalgamates multiple indices and yields a more stable intra-event assessment. This construct has now sustained an extended tuning procedure against heuristic analyst assessment of event risk. The tuning effort has resulted in modifications to the calculation procedure and the adjustment of tuning coefficients, producing a construct with both more predictive force and a better statement of its error.

Plakaloic, D.↗

Wald Sequential Probability Ratio Test for Space Object Conjunction Assessment

This paper shows how satellite owner/operators may use sequential estimates of collision probability, along with a prior assessment of the base risk of collision, in a compound hypothesis ratio test to inform decisions concerning collision risk mitigation maneuvers. The compound hypothesis test reduces to a simple probability ratio test, which appears to be a novel result. The test satisfies tolerances related to targeted false alarm and missed detection rates. This result is independent of the method one uses to compute the probability density that one integrates to compute collision probability. A well-established test case from the literature shows that this test yields acceptable results within the constraints of a typical operational conjunction assessment decision timeline. Another example illustrates the use of the test in a practical conjunction assessment scenario based on operations of the International Space Station.

Navigation↗

Determining Appropriate Risk Remediation Thresholds from Empirical Conjunction Data Using Survival Probability Methods

Satellites sometimes maneuver before conjunctions to remediate the risk of an on-orbit collision. Many missions use probability of collision (P(sub c)) thresholds to decide when such maneuvers should be performed. These thresholds tend to be conservative because of policies that require satellites survive their lifetimes without collision with high confidence (e.g., 99.9%). This study presents a semi-empirical method to estimate remediation P(sub c) thresholds that satisfy such lifetime risk requirements. The formulation combines survival probability analysis with empirical conjunction histories to estimate remediation thresholds as a function of satellite size, remaining on-orbit duration, lifetime collision probability limit, collision consequence, and other parameters.

Risk remediation thresholds↗

Conjunction Assessment(CA) Support Overview for the EOS Satellites

When a satellite is placed into its desired orbit, to achieve its designed mission objectives, it is imperative to maintain orbit requirements as well as the overall health and safety of the vehicle. One integral part of this process is ensuring that the satellite does not collide with any other vehicle or object in space, which can cause a detrimental consequence to the mission as well as to other satellites within the same orbit regime. To prevent such an occurrence, a thorough collision avoidance process must be followed. This process includes constantly monitoring potential conjunctions and performing collision avoidance maneuvers when necessary, while remaining within the limitations of the mission’s orbit maintenance requirements. This presentation will describe the Earth Observing System (EOS) Aqua, Aura and Terra satellite’s operational collision a! voidance process. It will highlight the routine conjunction assessment screening and data evaluation process performed by the NASA/GSFC EOS Collision Avoidance Engineers. The presentation will include background information, a summary of operational activities and duties, internal tools used for support, EOS High Interest Event statistics, and potential challenges expected in the future.

Syed Hasan↗

Multiple Transits during a Single Conjunction: Identifying Transiting Circumbinary Planetary Candidates from TESS

We present results of a study on identifying circumbinary planet candidates that produce multiple transits during one conjunction with eclipsing binary systems. The occurrence of these transits enables us to estimate the candidates’ orbital periods, which is crucial as the periods of the currently known transiting circumbinary planets are significantly longer than the typical observational baseline of the Transiting Exoplanet Survey Satellite (TESS). Combined with the derived radii, it also provides valuable information needed for follow-up observations and subsequent confirmation of a large number of circumbinary planet candidates from TESS. Motivated by the discovery of the 1108 day circumbinary planet Kepler-1647, we show the application of this technique to four of Kepler’s circumbinary planets that produce such transits. Our results indicate that in systems where the circumbinary planet is on a low-eccentricity orbit, the estimated planetary orbital period is within <10%–20% of the true value. This estimate is derived from photometric observations spanning less than 5% of the planet’s period, demonstrating the strong capability of the technique. Capitalizing on the current and future eclipsing binaries monitored by NASA’s TESS mission, we estimate that hundreds of circumbinary planet candidates producing multiple transits during one conjunction will be detected in the TESS data. Such a large sample will enable statistical understanding of the population of planets orbiting binary stars and shed new light on their formation and evolution.

Veselin Kostov↗

Satellite Conjunction Assessment, Risk Analysis and Collision Avoidance Best Practices: The History, Evolution and Opportunities

Since Explorer 1 was launched on January 31, 1958, the United States (U.S.) has reaped the benefits of space exploration. New markets and new technologies have spurred the economy and changed lives in many ways across the national security, civil, and commercial sectors. Space technologies and space-based capabilities now provide global communications, navigation and timing, weather forecasting, and more. Space exploration also presents challenges that impact not only the U.S. but also its allies and other partners. A significant increase in the volume and diversity of activity in space means that it is becoming increasingly congested. Emerging commercial ventures such as satellite servicing, in-space manufacturing, and tourism as well as new technologies enabling small satellites and large constellations of satellites present serious challenges for safely and responsibly using space in a stable, sustainable manner. To meet these challenges, the U.S. seeks to improve global awareness of activity in space by publicly sharing flight safety-related information and by coordinating its own on-orbit activity in a safer, more responsible manner. It seeks to bolster stability and reduce current and future operational on-orbit risks so that space is sustained for future generations. To this end, new and better Space Situational Awareness (SSA) capabilities are needed to keep pace with the increased congestion, and the U.S. seeks to create a dynamic environment that encourages and rewards commercial providers who improve these capabilities. The National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) Spacecraft Conjunction Assessment and Collision Avoidance Best Practices Handbook reflects how NASA currently operates, which has evolved over time. Consideration is given to important topics such as spacecraft and constellation design; spacecraft “trackability;” pre-launch preparation and early launch activities; on-orbit collision avoidance; and automated trajectory guidance and maneuvering. This talk aims to present examples of responsible practices for spacecraft Owners/Operators (O/O) to consider for lowering collision risks and operating safely in space (from LEO and beyond) in a stable and sustainable manner. As technology and innovation continues to improve upon existing capabilities, what kind of new challenges are presented in the SSA community? Can space exploration and commercial ventures thrive while keeping paramount the safety and protection of the space environment? What are the challenges and opportunities that need to be addressed and considered for space situational awareness in Cis-Lunar Space? It may prove useful for entities offering, or intending to offer, SSA or Conjunction Assessment (CA) services to consider such examples of responsible practices to protect the space environment for future use by all.

Collision Avoidance↗

Mars exploration, Venus swingby and conjunction class mission modes, time period 2000 to 2045

Trajectory and mission requirement data are presented for Earth-Mars opposition class and conjunction class round trip stopover mission opportunities available during the time period year 2000 to year 2045. The opposition class mission employs the gravitational field of Venus to accelerate the space vehicle on either the outbound or inbound leg. The gravitational field of Venus was used to reduce the propulsion requirement associated with the opposition class mission. Representative space vehicle systems are sized to compare the initial mass required in low Earth orbit of one mission opportunity with another mission opportunity. The interplanetary space vehicle is made up of the spacecraft and the space vehicle acceleration system. The space vehicle acceleration system consists of three propulsion stages. The first propulsion stage performs the Earth escape maneuver; the second stage brakes the spacecraft and Earth braking stage into the Mars elliptical orbit and effects the escape maneuver from the Mars elliptical orbit. The third propulsion stage brakes the mission module into an elliptical orbit at Earth return. The interplanetary space vehicle was assumed to be assembled in and depart from the space station circular orbit.

Mars Exploration↗

Use of the NetBeans Platform for NASA Robotic Conjunction Assessment Risk Analysis

The latest Java and JavaFX technologies are very attractive software platforms for customers involved in space mission operations such as those of NASA and the US Air Force. For NASA Robotic Conjunction Assessment Risk Analysis (CARA), the NetBeans platform provided an environment in which scalable software solutions could be developed quickly and efficiently. Both Java 8 and the NetBeans platform are in the process of simplifying CARA development in secure environments by providing a significant amount of capability in a single accredited package, where accreditation alone can account for 6-8 months for each library or software application. Capabilities either in use or being investigated by CARA include: 2D and 3D displays with JavaFX, parallelization with the new Streams API, and scalability through the NetBeans plugin architecture.

assessment↗

Relevance of the American Statistical Society's Warning on P-Values for Conjunction Assessment

On March 7, 2016, the American Statistical Association (ASA) issued an online editorial paper on the "context, process, and purpose of p-values." According to the paper, "the statement articulates in non-technical terms a few select principles that could improve the conductor interpretation of quantitative science, according to widespread consensus in the statistical community." This "consensus" statement was accompanied by 21 "commentaries" expressing a diversity of opinions among the panel of experts ASA convened. In the present work, we express our view that the ASA p-value warning has relevance to the space object Conjunction Assessment (CA) community.

p-values↗

Ballistic Leverage for Conjunction Avoidance During the Lunar Transit Trajectory of NASA's Co-Manifested Vehicle

Analysis is completed to investigate the sensitivity of the Lunar Transit Trajectory of NASA’s Co-Manifested Vehicle (CMV) to the insertion of intentional coasting into an otherwise nearly continuous low thrust maneuver. A reference trajectory is developed which explicitly models low altitude thruster shutdowns in a level of detail not included in previous Design Reference Missions. This reference trajectory is used to investigate the sensitivity of the Lunar Transit to additional inserted coasting, presented in the form of separation of the perturbed trajectory from the reference as a function of mission elapsed time and duration and location of the coast segment. These results are shown to inform potential conjunction avoidance strategies during the CMV’s long low thrust spiral from a highly elliptic Earth parking orbit to the target Gateway Near Rectilinear HALO Orbit (NRHO).

low thrust↗

Ballistic Leverage for Conjunction Avoidance During the Lunar Transit Trajectory of NASA's Co-Manifested Vehicle

Analysis is completed to investigate the sensitivity of the Lunar Transit Trajectory of NASA’s Co-Manifested Vehicle (CMV) to the insertion of intentional coasting into an otherwise nearly continuous low thrust maneuver. A reference trajectory is developed which explicitly models low altitude thruster shutdowns in a level of detail not included in previous Design Reference Missions. This reference trajectory is used to investigate the sensitivity of the Lunar Transit to additional inserted coasting, presented in the form of separation of the perturbed trajectory from the reference as a function of mission elapsed time and duration and location of the coast segment. These results are shown to inform potential conjunction avoidance strategies during the CMV’s long low thrust spiral from a highly elliptic Earth parking orbit to the target Gateway Near Rectilinear HALO Orbit (NRHO).

low thrust↗

Multipoint Observations of Energetic Particle Injections and Substorm Activity During a Conjunction Between Magnetospheric Multiscale (MMS) and Van Allen Probes

Here, this study examines multipoint observations during a conjunction between Magnetospheric Multiscale (MMS) and Van Allen Probes on 7 April 2016 in which a series of energetic particle injections occurred. With complementary data from Time History of Events and Macroscale Interactions during Substorms, Geotail, and Los Alamos National Laboratory spacecraft in geosynchronous orbit (16 spacecraft in total), we develop new insights on the nature of energetic particle injections associated with substorm activity. Despite this case involving only weak substorm activity (maximum AE <300 nT) during quiet geomagnetic conditions in steady, below-average solar wind, a complex series of at least six different electron injections was observed throughout the system. Intriguingly, only one corresponding ion injection was clearly observed. All ion and electron injections were observed at <600 keV only. MMS reveals detailed substructure within the largest electron injection. A relationship between injected electrons with energy <60 keV and enhanced whistler mode chorus wave activity is also established from Van Allen Probes and MMS. Drift mapping using a simplified magnetic field model provides estimates of the dispersionless injection boundary locations as a function of universal time, magnetic local time, and L shell. The analysis reveals that at least five electron injections, which were localized in magnetic local time, preceded a larger injection of both electrons and ions across nearly the entire nightside of the magnetosphere near geosynchronous orbit. The larger ion and electron injection did not penetrate to L < 6.6, but several of the smaller electron injections penetrated to L < 6.6. Due to the discrepancy between the number, penetration depth, and complexity of electron versus ion injections, this event presents challenges to the current conceptual models of energetic particle injections.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Simultaneous Observations of Electromagnetic Ion Cyclotron (EMIC) Waves and Pitch Angle Scattering During a Van Allen Probes Conjunction

On 22 December 2015, the two Van Allen Probes observed two sets of electromagnetic ion cyclotron (EMIC) wave bursts during a close conjunction when both Probe A and Probe B were separated by 0.57 to 0.68 R E . Here, the EMIC waves occurred during an active period in the recovery phase of a coronal mass ejection-driven geomagnetic storm. Both spacecraft observed EMIC wave bursts that had similar spatial structure within a 1–2 min time delay. The EMIC waves occurred outside the plasmasphere, within ΔL ≈ 1–2 of the plasmapause and within a few degrees in magnetic latitude of the equatorial plane. The spatial structure of the EMIC wave bursts may have been related to the proton drift paths outside the plasmasphere and influenced by total magnetic field strength variations associated with solar wind pressure enhancements. The EMIC waves were observed in a narrow L shell region from L ≈ 4.55–5.32 between 10 and 11 magnetic local time (MLT) on the outbound halves of the spacecraft orbits and from L ≈ 4.82–5.51 between 13 and 14 MLT on the inbound halves of the spacecraft orbits. However, Pc1 pulsations were observed on the ground over a broad range of local times. The anisotropy of the proton pitch angle distributions was enhanced when the EMIC waves were observed. Although the overall radiation belt response during this storm was dominated by acceleration and transport processes, the EMIC waves produced local pitch angle scattering of 13–15 keV protons and 2.1–2.6 MeV electrons, consistent with calculations of the expected resonant energies.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Quantifying Disconnection of Groundwater From Managed‐Ephemeral Surface Water During Drought and Conjunctive Agricultural Use

Abstract The physics of disconnection between interrelated surface and groundwater has evolved considerably in recent years, especially since conjunctive use of water resources is increasingly dependent on groundwater resilience, but methods to measure disconnection on a river basin scale are lacking especially for managed‐ephemeral and irrigated‐agricultural systems. Multiyear drought limited surface water along Rincon Valley within the Elephant Butte Irrigation District (EBID) in the arid, Lower Rio Grande Basin of south‐central New Mexico, USA, and effects were compounded by continued extraction of groundwater to meet crop requirements. Average year‐end water table elevations in recent years have been below the average elevation of the riverbed, indicating potential disconnection between the river and the aquifer even when the river flows during the irrigation season. This study analyzed data from EBID groundwater monitoring wells adjacent to the river, infiltration determined from river flows, and riverbed measurements along the Rincon Valley reach to determine net annual seepage discharge to the aquifer and annual average pressure head below the river. Annual assessment from 2010 to 2017 confirmed that the drought shifted the system from connection to transition and then to disconnection. Nonlinear regression was used to quantify this shift to disconnection and back, enabled determination of several disconnection process metrics, and was also used to confirm that nonlinear disconnection behavior was reversible without significant hysteresis. The method developed herein confirms that the total head difference transition threshold can be determined from river/riparian monitoring sites over reach to basin scales.

Fuchs, Erek H.↗

Intracellular distribution and stability of a luminescent rhenium( I ) tricarbonyl tetrazolato complex using epifluorescence microscopy in conjunction with X-ray fluorescence imaging

Optical fluorescence microscopy was used in conjunction with X-ray fluorescence microscopy to monitor the stability and intracellular distribution of the luminescent rhenium(I) complex fac -[Re(CO) 3 (phen)L], where phen = 1,10-phenathroline and L = 5-(4-iodophenyl)tetrazolato, in 22Rv1 cells. The rhenium complex showed no signs of ancillary ligand dissociation, a conclusion based on data obtained via X-ray fluorescence imaging aligning iodine and rhenium distributions. A diffuse reticular localisation was detected for the complex, in the nuclear/perinuclear region of cells, by either optical or X-ray fluorescence techniques. Furthermore, X-ray fluorescence also showed that the Re-I complex disrupted the homeostasis of some biologically relevant elements, such as chlorine, potassium and zinc.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗