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Software reliability through fault-avoidance and fault-tolerance

Twenty independently developed but functionally equivalent software versions were used to investigate and compare empirically some properties of N-version programming, Recovery Block, and Consensus Recovery Block, using the majority and consensus voting algorithms. This was also compared with another hybrid fault-tolerant scheme called Acceptance Voting, using dynamic versions of consensus and majority voting. Consensus voting provides adaptation of the voting strategy to varying component reliability, failure correlation, and output space characteristics. Since failure correlation among versions effectively reduces the cardinality of the space in which the voter make decisions, consensus voting is usually preferable to simple majority voting in any fault-tolerant system. When versions have considerably different reliabilities, the version with the best reliability will perform better than any of the fault-tolerant techniques.

Vouk, Mladen A.↗

Resources Available for Hazards Analysis of Aerospace Fluids

In recent years, the legislative and executive branches of the federal government have pushed to make government more efficient and responsive to the needs of the marketplace. One of these initiatives, Public Law 104-113, also known as the National Technology Transfer and Advancement Act of 1995 (NTTAA), is designed to accelerate technology transfer to industry and promote government-industry partnership. Summarized, NTTAA states that '... all Federal agencies and departments shall use technical standards that are developed or adopted by voluntary consensus standards bodies, using such technical standards as a means to carry out policy objectives or activities determined by the agencies and departments. Government agencies must now determine if their in-house requirement-setting activities are sufficiently unique that no public interest is served by having them adopted by a voluntary consensus organization (VCO), or if not, to use or develop voluntary consensus standards. The Office of Management and Budget (OMB) is chartered by the law to monitor federal agency progress and report the results to Congress. In response to NTTAA, agency-wide oxygen and hydrogen safety standards sponsored by the NASA Headquarters (HQ) Office of Safety and Mission Assurance (OSMA) were obvious choices for early adoption by VCOs. In 1996, HQ sought assistance from the Johnson Space Center (JSC) White Sands Test Facility (WSTF), the technical lead for development of these safety standards, to evaluate their adoption by VCOs. At that time, WSTF-developed propellant hazards manuals were likewise identified for possible VCO adoption. Subsequently, WSTF was asked to represent NASA for development of an international ISO safety standard for hydrogen use. Concurrent with these WSTF standards activities are related efforts to develop and publish propellant hazards analysis protocols and safety courses for the industrial, propellant use of oxygen, hydrogen, and hypergols. This paper reports on these efforts and describes WSTF's overall voluntary consensus standards program to coordinate the interchange of NASA's propellant hazards and safety information with industry.

Woods, S. S.↗

Converter Compressor Building, SWMU 089, Hot Spot Areas 1, 2, and 5 Operations, Maintenance, and Monitoring Report, Kennedy Space Center, Florida

This Operations, Maintenance, and Monitoring Report (OMMR) presents the findings, observations, and results from operation of the air sparging (AS) interim measure (IM) for Hot Spot (HS) Areas 1, 2, and 5 at the Converter Compressor Building (CCB) located at Kennedy Space Center (KSC), Florida. The objective of the IM at CCB HS Areas 1, 2, and 5 is to decrease concentrations of volatile organic compounds (VOCs) in groundwater in the treatment zones via AS to levels that will enable a transition to a monitored natural attenuation (MNA) phase. This OMMR presents system operations and maintenance (O&M) information and performance monitoring results since full-scale O&M began in June 2014 (2 months after initial system startup in April 2014), including quarterly performance monitoring events in July and October 2014 and January and May 2015. Based on the results to date, the AS system is operating as designed and is meeting the performance criteria and IM objective. The performance monitoring network is adequately constructed for assessment of IM performance at CCB HS Areas 1, 2, and 5. At the March 2014 KSC Remediation Team (KSCRT) Meeting, team consensus was reached for the design prepared for expansion of the system to treat the HS 4 area, and at the November 2014 KSCRT Meeting, team consensus was reached that HS 3 was adequately delineated horizontally and vertically and for selection of AS for the remedial approach for HS 3. At the July 2015 KSCRT meeting, team consensus was reached to continue IM operations in all zones until HSs 3 and 4 is operational, once HS 3 and 4 zones are operational discontinue operations in HS 1, 2, and 5 zones where concentrations are less than GCTLs to observe whether rebounding conditions occur. Team consensus was also reached to continue quarterly performance monitoring to determine whether operational zones achieve GCTLs and to continue annual IGWM of CCB-MW0012, CCBMW0013, and CCB-MW0056, located south of the treatment area. The next performance monitoring event is scheduled for July 2015.

Converter Compressor Building↗

Life Support Goals Including High Closure and Low Mass Should Be Reconsidered Using Systems Analysis

Recycling space life support systems have been built and tested since the 1960s and have operated on the International Space Station (ISS) since the mid 2000s. The development of space life support has been guided by a general consensus focused on two important related goals, increasing system closure and reducing launch mass. High closure is achieved by recycling crew waste products such as carbon dioxide and condensed humidity. Recycling directly reduces the mass of oxygen and water for the crew that must be launched from Earth. The launch mass of life support can be further reduced by developing recycling systems with lower hardware mass and reduced power. The life support consensus has also favored using biological systems. The goal of increasing closure using biological systems suggests that food should be grown in space and that biological processors be used for air, water, and waste recycling. The goal of reducing launch mass led to use of Equivalent System Mass (ESM) in life support advocacy and technology selection. The recent consensus assumes that the recycling systems architecture developed in the 1960s and implemented on ISS will be used on all future long missions. NASA and other project organizations use the standard systems engineering process to guide hardware development. The systems process was used to develop ISS life support, but it has been less emphasized in planning future systems for the moon and Mars. Since such missions are far in the future, there has been less immediate need for systems engineering analysis to consider trade-offs, reliability, and Life Cycle Cost (LCC). Preliminary systems analysis suggests that the life support consensus concepts should be revised to reflect systems engineering requirements.

systems analysis↗

Multifaceted aerosol effects on precipitation

Aerosols have been proposed to influence precipitation rates and spatial patterns from scales of individual clouds to the globe. However, large uncertainty remains regarding the underlying mechanisms and importance of multiple effects across spatial and temporal scales. Here, in this study, we review the evidence and scientific consensus behind these effects, categorized into radiative effects via modification of radiative fluxes and the energy balance, and microphysical effects via modification of cloud droplets and ice crystals. Broad consensus and strong theoretical evidence exist that aerosol radiative effects (aerosol–radiation interactions and aerosol–cloud interactions) act as drivers of precipitation changes because global mean precipitation is constrained by energetics and surface evaporation. Likewise, aerosol radiative effects cause well-documented shifts of large-scale precipitation patterns, such as the intertropical convergence zone. The extent of aerosol effects on precipitation at smaller scales is less clear. Although there is broad consensus and strong evidence that aerosol perturbations microphysically increase cloud droplet numbers and decrease droplet sizes, thereby slowing precipitation droplet formation, the overall aerosol effect on precipitation across scales remains highly uncertain. Global cloud-resolving models provide opportunities to investigate mechanisms that are currently not well represented in global climate models and to robustly connect local effects with larger scales. This will increase our confidence in predicted impacts of climate change.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Criteria for Retention of 3013 S1 Containers Based on Relative Risk and Expert Judgment

An evaluation was performed to assess the suitability of thirty-three 3013 containers proposed for retention. These containers have moisture levels greater than 0.08 wt.% – the S1 population. The remainder of the S1 population stored at SRS will be down blended and disposed of by the end of 2028. Based on field surveillance and shelf-life data available to date as well as informed technical judgment, no container is currently expected to fail in its 50-year storage period. However, corrosion risk varies across the S1 population. Relative risks were evaluated using predicted Consensus Scores and their 95% Upper Prediction Limits (UPLs). The predicted values are based on a statistical model of Consensus Score as a function of moisture, chloride, and whether the packaged material was electrorefining scrap packaged at Hanford. Consensus Score has been shown to be a useful indicator of corrosion potential, and the UPL captures uncertainty in the model predictions, providing a conservative indicator of corrosion potential. Using UPLs to determine relative risks, together with expert review, three containers were identified as not suitable for retention, and the remainder were determined to be suitable.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗

Reliability of voting in fault-tolerant software systems for small output spaces

Under a voting strategy in a fault-tolerant software system there is a difference between correctness and agreement. An independent N-version programming reliability model is proposed for treating small output spaces which distinguishes between correctness and agreement. System reliability is investigated using analytical relationships and simulation. A consensus majority voting strategy is proposed and its performance is analyzed and compared with other voting strategies. Consensus majority strategy automatically adapts the voting to different component reliability and output space cardinality characteristics. It is shown that absolute majority voting strategy provides a lower bound on the reliability provided by the consensus majority, and 2-of-n voting strategy an upper bound. If r is the cardinality of the output space it is proved the 1/r is a lower bound on the average reliability of fault-tolerant system components below which the system reliability begins to deteriorate as more versions are added.

Mcallister, David F.↗

Reliability of voting in fault-tolerant software systems for small output spaces

Under a voting strategy in a fault-tolerant software system there is a difference between correctness and agreement. An independent N-version programming reliability model is proposed for treating small output spaces which distinguishes between correctness and agreement. System reliability is investigated using analytical relationships and simulation. A consensus majority voting stratey is proposed and its performance is analyzed and compared with other voting strategies. A consensus voting strategy automatically adapts the voting to diffeerent component reliability and output space cardinality characteristics. It is shown that absolute majority voting strategy provides a lower bound on the reliability provided by the consensus majority, and the 2-of-n voting strategy an upper bound. If r is the cardinality of output space it is proved that 1/r is a lower bound on the average reliability of fault-tolerant system components below which the system reliability begins to deteriorate as more versions are added.

Mcallister, David F.↗

The Evolution of Networks in Extreme and Isolated Environment

This article reports on the evolution of network structure as it relates to the formal and informal aspects of social roles in well bounded, isolated groups. Research was conducted at the Amundsen-Scott South Pole Station over a 3-year period. Data was collected on crewmembers' networks of social interaction and personal advice over each of the 8.5-month winters during a time of complete isolation. In addition, data was collected on informal social role structure (e.g., instrumental leadership, expressive leadership). It was hypothesized that development and maintenance of a cohesive group structure was related to the presence of and group consensus on various informal social roles. The study found that core-periphery structures (i.e., reflecting cohesion) in winter-over groups were associated with the presence of critically important informal social roles (e.g., expressive leadership) and high group consensus on such informal roles. On the other hand, the evolution of clique structures (i.e., lack of cohesion) were associated with the absence of critical roles and a lack of consensus on these roles, particularly the critically important role of instrumental leader.

Johnson, Jeffrey C.↗

Ground Based, Millimeter Wave Measurement of Ozone in the Middle Atmosphere

There is a need for highly reliable measurements of stratospheric ozone. Policy makers worldwide concerned with public health rely oil a clear consensus from the scientific community as a basis for ozone-related environmental policy that has a significant impact oil national economies. Tile latest Such consensus was presented in WMO, and used in a 1999 meeting of the parties considering amendments to the Montreal Protocol oil Substances that Deplete the Ozone Layer. Tile scientific community, in turn, needs highly precise and accurate measurements of ozone levels, and small time derivatives of these levels, both in continued - development of its understanding of the physical and chemical processes involved and as clear evidence that these processes are occurring as stated. Over most of the world, changes in ozone levels are small. For example, over the heavily populated northern midlatitudes, the linearized rate of ozone decline is between 0.2% per year and 0.7% per year, depending on altitude. These values are small enough to make measurement requirements technically challenging. Data quality may suffer from imperfections in individual instruments. In one instance, early results from a satellite-borne ozone sensor were later found to be invalid because of calibration drift. Even in the absence of drift, tile absolute calibration of a new sensor may differ slightly from that of its predecessor in service. Most ozone remote sensing instruments operate at ultraviolet or infrared wavelengths where scattering from dust and aerosols must be taken into account; results from these systems may be or are affected following a major volcanic eruption, such as tile one at Mt. Pinatubo in 1991. Given these difficulties, a consensus of measurements from several independent systems is required to insure a reliable understanding of stratospheric ozone levels. Because of the above-described need for highly precise and accurate ozone measurements using several independent techniques, there was interest in developing several techniques which were known but not highly developed in the 1980's into systems capable of being used in ail operational manner to make measurements with the level of quality needed to-detect small trends in ozone levels. A ground-based microwave instrument capable of remotely sensing stratospheric ozone had been designed by tile Principal Investigator of the present project. This instrument was built at tile Millitech Corporation in South Deerfield, Massachusetts before tile present work began. (Funding for design and construction of the instrument came from sources other than the present grant.) Tile instrument measured the spectrum of one of the many emission lines produced by purely rotational transitions of ozone, one at a frequency of 110.8 GHz. The altitude distribution of ozone can. in principle, be retrieved from the details of the pressure-broadened spectrum of the ozone transition. However, the level of contamination of the spectral measurement by instrumentally induced artifacts must be very low in order to retrieve a ozone profile of useful quality from it. The Millitech instrument demonstrated spectral purity at ail adequate level, and there were promising ideas for instrumental improvements and for further development of the technique. The initial objectives of the present project, then, were to develop techniques for calibrating the Millitech instrument, to minimize artifacts in tile spectra it produces, to optimally retrieve ozone profiles from tile spectra, to test tile quality of the microwave profiles by comparing them with profiles obtained using several other, independent techniques over both short and periods of time, and to perform research using the ozone data gathered with the instrument.

Parrish, Alan↗

Impact of lossy compression on diagnostic accuracy of radiographs for periapical lesions

OBJECTIVES: The purpose of this study was to evaluate the lossy Joint Photographic Experts Group compression for endodontic pretreatment digital radiographs. STUDY DESIGN: Fifty clinical charge-coupled device-based, digital radiographs depicting periapical areas were selected. Each image was compressed at 2, 4, 8, 16, 32, 48, and 64 compression ratios. One root per image was marked for examination. Images were randomized and viewed by four clinical observers under standardized viewing conditions. Each observer read the image set three times, with at least two weeks between each reading. Three pre-selected sites per image (mesial, distal, apical) were scored on a five-scale score confidence scale. A panel of three examiners scored the uncompressed images, with a consensus score for each site. The consensus score was used as the baseline for assessing the impact of lossy compression on the diagnostic values of images. The mean absolute error between consensus and observer scores was computed for each observer, site, and reading session. RESULTS: Balanced one-way analysis of variance for all observers indicated that for compression ratios 48 and 64, there was significant difference between mean absolute error of uncompressed and compressed images (P <.05). After converting the five-scale score to two-level diagnostic values, the diagnostic accuracy was strongly correlated (R (2) = 0.91) with the compression ratio. CONCLUSION: The results of this study suggest that high compression ratios can have a severe impact on the diagnostic quality of the digital radiographs for detection of periapical lesions.

NASA Discipline Space Human Factors↗

Overview and Status of the Bioastronautics Critical Path Roadmap (BCPR)

Viewgraphs on the status and overview of the Bioastronautics Critical Path Roadmap (BCPR) are presented. The topics include: 1) BCPR Objectives; 2) BCPR and OBPR Program Management; 3) BCPR Disciplines & Cross-Cutting Areas; 4) Characteristics of BCPR Reference Missions; 5) Bioastronautics Timetable (notional); 6) BCPR Processes Risk Identification, Assessment, and Management; 7) Types of BCPR Risks; 8) Enabling Questions Categories; 9) Risk Mitigation Status; 10) Defining Levels of Accepted Risk; 11) BCPR Integration; 12) BCPR Implementation, Integration, and Validation; 13) BCPR Refinement Schedule; 14) Academy Review; 15) Rating Bioastronautics Risks; 16) Risk Rating Exercises; 17) Human Health Risk Assessment Criteria (examples); 18) A Recent Risk Rating Exercise; 19) Consensus Workshop Background; 20) Consensus Workshop Rating Analysis; 21) Consensus Workshop Selected Preliminary Recommendations; and 22) Access to BCPR Content.

Charles, John↗

Continual coordination through shared activities

Interacting agents that interleave planning and execution must reach consensus on their commitments to each other. In domains where agents have varying degrees of interaction and different constraints on communication and computation, agents will require different coordination protocols in order to efficiently reach consensus in real time. We briefly describe a largely unexplored class of realtime, distributed planning problems (inspired by interacting spacecraft missions), new challenges they pose, and a general approach to solving the problems. These problems involve self-interested agents that have infrequent communication but collaborate on joint activities. We describe a Shared Activity Coordination (SHAC) framework that provides a decentralized algorithm for negotiating the scheduling of shared activities over the lifetimes of separate missions, a soft, real-time approach to reaching consensus during execution with limited communication, and a foundation for customizing protocols for negotiating planner interactions. We apply SHAC to a realistic simulation of interacting Mars missions and illustrate the simplicity of protocol development.

planning↗

Shared Activity Coordination

Interacting agents that interleave planning and execution must reach consensus on their commitments to each other. In domains where agents have varying degrees of interaction and different constraints on communication and computation, agents will require different coordination protocols in order to efficiently reach consensus in real time. We briefly describe a largely unexplored class of real-time, distributed planning problems (inspired by interacting spacecraft missions), new challenges they pose, and a general approach to solving the problems. These problems involve self-interested agents that have infrequent communication but collaborate on joint activities. We describe a Shared Activity Coordination (SHAC) framework that provides a decentralized algorithm for negotiating the scheduling of shared activities in a dynamic environment, a soft, real-time approach to reaching consensus during execution with limited communication, and a foundation for customizing protocols for negotiating planner interactions. We apply SHAC to a realistic simulation of interacting Mars missions and illustrate the simplicity of protocol development.

coordination↗

Cryogenic Insulation Standard Data and Methodologies Project

Extending some recent developments in the area of technical consensus standards for cryogenic thermal insulation systems, a preliminary Inter-Laboratory Study of foam insulation materials was performed by NASA Kennedy Space Center and LeTourneau University. The initial focus was ambient pressure cryogenic boil off testing using the Cryostat-400 flat-plate instrument. Completion of a test facility at LETU has enabled direct, comparative testing, using identical cryostat instruments and methods, and the production of standard thermal data sets for a number of materials under sub-ambient conditions. The two sets of measurements were analyzed and indicate there is reasonable agreement between the two laboratories. Based on cryogenic boiloff calorimetry, new equipment and methods for testing thermal insulation systems have been successfully developed. These boiloff instruments (or cryostats) include both flat plate and cylindrical models and are applicable to a wide range of different materials under a wide range of test conditions. Test measurements are generally made at large temperature difference (boundary temperatures of 293 K and 78 K are typical) and include the full vacuum pressure range. Results are generally reported in effective thermal conductivity (ke) and mean heat flux (q) through the insulation system. The new cryostat instruments provide an effective and reliable way to characterize the thermal performance of materials under subambient conditions. Proven in through thousands of tests of hundreds of material systems, they have supported a wide range of aerospace, industry, and research projects. Boiloff testing technology is not just for cryogenic testing but is a cost effective, field-representative methodology to test any material or system for applications at sub-ambient temperatures. This technology, when adequately coupled with a technical standards basis, can provide a cost-effective, field-representative methodology to test any material or system for applications at sub-ambient to cryogenic temperatures. A growing need for energy efficiency and cryogenic applications is creating a worldwide demand for improved thermal insulation systems for low temperatures. The need for thermal characterization of these systems and materials raises a corresponding need for insulation test standards and thermal data targeted for cryogenic-vacuum applications. Such standards have a strong correlation to energy, transportation, and environment and the advancement of new materials technologies in these areas. In conjunction with this project, two new standards on cryogenic insulation were recently published by ASTM International: C1774 and C740. Following the requirements of NPR 7120.10, Technical Standards for NASA Programs and Projects, the appropriate information in this report can be provided to the NASA Chief Engineer as input for NASA's annual report to NIST, as required by OMB Circular No. A-119, describing NASA's use of voluntary consensus standards and participation in the development of voluntary consensus standards and bodies.

Technology Portfolio System↗

Area South of K7-516, SWMU 100 Operations, Maintenance, and Monitoring Report Kennedy Space Center, Florida

This Operations, Maintenance, and Monitoring Report documents groundwater interim measure activities from March 30, 2019 through December 31, 2019 at the Area South of K7-516 site located at Kennedy Space Center (KSC), Florida. An air sparge (AS) system consisting of 16 AS wells was installed along the Barge Canal in 2012 to be protective of the Outstanding Florida Waters (OFW). The AS system was expanded in 2015 by installing 40 AS wells to remediate the hot spot (HS) area. Additional expansion activities were performed in 2018 through the installation of eight additional AS wells along the Barge Canal. Currently 24 OFW and 40 HS AS wells are in operation. This report includes performance monitoring events for the OFW and HS areas, along with an annual Interim Groundwater Monitoring (IGWM) event in the Western Area. The 516S site has been designated Solid Waste Management Unit 100 under KSC’s Resource Conservation and Recovery Act Corrective Action program. This document was prepared by Tetra Tech, Inc., for the National Aeronautics and Space Administration under Indefinite Delivery Indefinite Quantity Contract 80KSC019D0011/80KSC019F0068. The OFW and HS AS systems are meeting the performance criteria and IM objectives of preventing contaminant migration and remediating groundwater within the treatment zone. Team consensus was reached to continue operation of the combined OFW and HS AS systems (Meeting Minute 2002-M02, Decisions 2002-D06, D09 and D04). Team consensus was also reached to continue semi-annual OFW performance monitoring and annual monitoring for the IGWM Western Area for the same wells sampled during 2019 events. In the eastern area, MW13, MW14, and MW15 will be reduced from semi-annual to annual frequency. For the HS Area, team consensus was reached to continue the current annual/biennial monitoring program (Meeting Minute 2002-M02, Decisions 2002-D02, D03, D05, D07 and D08).

Patrice L. Lehocky↗

Assessing the Needs for Space Reactor Standards

A U.S. governmental interagency space reactor standards working group (SWG) was convened to address the limited availability of voluntary consensus standards currently in place specifically for space nuclear reactor design and safety. The SWG focused on reviewing existing standards, assessing agency needs, specifying gaps that could be addressed by new standards, and prioritizing those gaps through consensus group deliberations. The SWG identified a series of findings and recommendations relative to the development of space reactor standards, including moving three specific high-priority gap items to be pursued through a consensus standards development process: Safety and Risk Analysis Methods for Space Reactors, Testing Requirements for Space Reactors, including Facility Requirements, and Safe Operating Practices for Space Reactors.

Andrew Klein↗

Heat Stress to Jeopardize Crop Production in the US Corn Belt Based on Downscaled CMIP5 Projections

CONTEXT Global food security faces increasing challenges from the changing climate. Changes of agricultural output from some of the most productive regions such as the US Corn Belt can largely affect the world's food market. Developing predictive understanding of the agricultural risk of climate change and potential mitigation strategies is critical for the global food security. OBJECTIVE The objective of this study is to assess the responses of maize and soybean yield to projected climate changes in the Corn Belt, identify the shifting environment stressors on crop yield, and tackle potential climate adaptation strategies. METHODS We drive a process-based model, the Decision Support System for Agrotechnology Transfer, with high-resolution statistically downscaled and bias-corrected historical and future climates from ten CMIP5 models in the MACA-2 database. RESULTS AND CONCLUSIONS The multi-model ensemble mean suggests a 12% decrease of maize yield by mid-century and 40% by late century, with a high degree of model consensus in the direction of changes; for individual models, the projected decrease of maize yield by late century ranges from <5% to over 80%, with the worst crop outcome corresponding to the most sensitive climate models. Soybean yield is projected to increase by midcentury with a high degree of model consensus, but such consensus is lost by late century as some projections shift to significant decreases. Crop yield in the Corn Belt is currently limited by water stress, but is projected to be increasingly limited by heat stress as well after the midcentury. The mounting heat stress will drive the most productive zone for maize to shift from central to northern part of the Corn Belt, but the projected increase in the northern states cannot fully compensate for the decrease in the south, causing the total production to decrease if agricultural practice stays the same. Earlier planting can alleviate only a small fraction of the heat-induced crop loss in a warmer climate. Climate change will (at least partially) offset the yield boost caused by agricultural technology and intensification. SIGNIFICANCE This study advances our predictive understanding of crop yield responses to climate change, and suggests that a multitude of strategies will be needed to address the climate change challenges for the U.S. agriculture.

Crop yield↗