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NASA NTRS2012

Modeling a Civil Event Case Study for Consequence Management Using the IMPRINT Forces Module

A critical challenge in the Consequence Management (CM) domain is the appropriate allocation of necessary and skilled military and civilian personnel and materiel resources in unexpected emergencies. To aid this process we used the Forces module in the Improved Performance Research Integration Tool (IMPRINT). This module enables analysts to enter personnel and equipment capabilities, prioritized schedules and numbers available, along with unexpected emergency requirements in order to assess force response requirements. Using a suspected terrorist threat on a college campus, we developed a test case model which exercised the capabilities of the module, including the scope and scale of operations. The model incorporates data from multiple sources, including daily schedules and frequency of events such as fire calls. Our preliminary results indicate that the model can predict potential decreases in civilian emergency response coverage due to an involved unplanned incident requiring significant portions of police, fire and civil responses teams.

Gacy, Marc↗

DOE OSTI2023

Investigating the Impact of Irrigation on Malaria Vector Larval Habitats and Transmission Using a Hydrology‐Based Model

Abstract A combination of accelerated population growth and severe droughts has created pressure on food security and driven the development of irrigation schemes across sub‐Saharan Africa. Irrigation has been associated with increased malaria risk, but risk prediction remains difficult due to the heterogeneity of irrigation and the environment. While investigating transmission dynamics is helpful, malaria models cannot be applied directly in irrigated regions as they typically rely only on rainfall as a source of water to quantify larval habitats. By coupling a hydrologic model with an agent‐based malaria model for a sugarcane plantation site in Arjo, Ethiopia, we demonstrated how incorporating hydrologic processes to estimate larval habitats can affect malaria transmission. Using the coupled model, we then examined the impact of an existing irrigation scheme on malaria transmission dynamics. The inclusion of hydrologic processes increased the variability of larval habitat area by around two‐fold and resulted in reduction in malaria transmission by 60%. In addition, irrigation increased all habitat types in the dry season by up to 7.4 times. It converted temporary and semi‐permanent habitats to permanent habitats during the rainy season, which grew by about 24%. Consequently, malaria transmission was sustained all‐year round and intensified during the main transmission season, with the peak shifted forward by around 1 month. Lastly, we evaluated the spatiotemporal distribution of adult vectors under the effect of irrigation by resolving habitat heterogeneity. These findings could help larval source management by identifying transmission hotspots and prioritizing resources for malaria elimination planning.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2024

Analyzing Potential Failures and Effects in a Pilot-Scale Biomass Preprocessing Facility for Improved Reliability

This study demonstrates a failure identification methodology applied to a preprocessing facility generating conversion-ready feedstocks from biomass meeting conversion process critical quality attribute (CQA) specifications. Failure Modes and Effects Analysis (FMEA) was used as an industrially relevant risk analysis approach to evaluate a logging residue preprocessing system to prepare feedstock for pyrolysis conversion. Risk evaluations considered both system-level and operation unit-level assessments considering process efficiency, product quality, cost, sustainability, and safety. Key outputs included estimations of semi-quantitative risk scores for each failure, identification of the failure impacts, identification of failure causes associated with material attributes and process parameters, ranking success rates of failure detection methods, and speculation of potential mitigation strategies for decreasing failure risk scores. Results showed that deviations from moisture specifications had cascading consequences for other CQAs along with process safety implications. Failures linked to fixed carbon specifications carried the highest risk scores for product quality and process efficiency impacts. As increased throughput can be inversely related to meeting product quality specifications; achieving throughput and other material-based CQAs simultaneously will likely require system optimization or prioritization based on system economics. Ultimately, this work successfully demonstrates FMEA as a risk analysis approach for other bioenergy process systems.

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗

DOE OSTI2025

Interconnected Risks in Electricity Systems: Understanding Research Challenges, Needs, and Partnerships

The U.S. federal government has a potential role in mitigating the most poorly addressed risks across electricity markets and interdependent systems. Electricity system risks stem from extreme acute shocks (e.g., cyberattacks, extreme weather, and supply chain disruptions) and chronic stressors (e.g., global economic competition, uncertainties surrounding emerging technologies, climate change, and related conflicts). These acute shocks and chronic stressors can result in dire consequences for society, underscoring the need for better information for decision makers in both public and private sectors. Best practices and a shared understanding of risk management and risk quantification must be rapidly developed and disseminated. Informed by a quantitative treatment of risk to electrical infrastructure and interdependent systems, decision makers can more prudently and efficiently prioritize mitigation initiatives to maximize benefits to government, businesses, and the public.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

NASA NTRS2015

Multidimensional Risk Analysis: MRISK

Multidimensional Risk (MRISK) calculates the combined multidimensional score using Mahalanobis distance. MRISK accounts for covariance between consequence dimensions, which de-conflicts the interdependencies of consequence dimensions, providing a clearer depiction of risks. Additionally, in the event the dimensions are not correlated, Mahalanobis distance reduces to Euclidean distance normalized by the variance and, therefore, represents the most flexible and optimal method to combine dimensions. MRISK is currently being used in NASA's Environmentally Responsible Aviation (ERA) project o assess risk and prioritize scarce resources.

McCollum, Raymond↗

NASA NTRS2013

Technology Development Roadmap: A Technology Development Roadmap for a Future Gravitational Wave Mission

Humankind will detect the first gravitational wave (GW) signals from the Universe in the current decade using ground-based detectors. But the richest trove of astrophysical information lies at lower frequencies in the spectrum only accessible from space. Signals are expected from merging massive black holes throughout cosmic history, from compact stellar remnants orbiting central galactic engines from thousands of close contact binary systems in the Milky Way, and possibly from exotic sources, some not yet imagined. These signals carry essential information not available from electromagnetic observations, and which can be extracted with extraordinary accuracy. For 20 years, NASA, the European Space Agency (ESA), and an international research community have put considerable effort into developing concepts and technologies for a GW mission. Both the 2000 and 2010 decadal surveys endorsed the science and mission concept of the Laser Interferometer Space Antenna (LISA). A partnership of the two agencies defined and analyzed the concept for a decade. The agencies partnered on LISA Pathfinder (LPF), and ESA-led technology demonstration mission, now preparing for a 2015 launch. Extensive technology development has been carried out on the ground. Currently, the evolved Laser Interferometer Space Antenna (eLISA) concept, a LISA-like concept with only two measurement arms, is competing for ESA's L2 opportunity. NASA's Astrophysics Division seeks to be a junior partner if eLISA is selected. If eLISA is not selected, then a LISA-like mission will be a strong contender in the 2020 decadal survey. This Technology Development Roadmap (TDR) builds on the LISA concept development, the LPF technology development, and the U.S. and European ground-based technology development. The eLISA architecture and the architecture of the Mid-sized Space-based Gravitational-wave Observatory (SGO Mid)-a competitive design with three measurement arms from the recent design study for a NASA-led mission after 2020-both use the same technologies. Further, NASA participation in an ESA-led mission would likely augment the eLISA architecture with a third arm to become the SGO Mid architecture. For these reasons, this TDR for a future GW mission applies to both designs and both programmatic paths forward. It is adaptable to the different timelines and roles for an ESA-led or a NASA-led mission, and it is adaptable to available resources. Based on a mature understanding of the interaction between technology and risk, the authors of this TDR have chosen a set of objectives that are more expansive than is usual. The objectives for this roadmap are: (1) reduce technical and development risks and costs; (2) understand and, where possible, relieve system requirements and consequences; (3) increase technical insight into critical technologies; and (4) validate the design at the subsystem level. The emphasis on these objectives, particularly the latter two, is driven by outstanding programmatic decisions, namely whether a future GW mission is ESA-led or NASA-led, and availability of resources. The relative emphasis is best understood in the context of prioritization.

Laser Interferometry Space Antenna↗

NASA NTRS2026

Hyperspectral Detail Meets Radiometric Accuracy: A Foundational Reflected Solar Capability for the Coming Decade

Hyperspectral Earth-reflected solar measurements contain rich, detailed information about clouds, aerosols, and the atmosphere. This information compounds when paired with high, SI-traceable radiometric accuracy. Unlike spectral resolution, which can be resampled to coarser spectral resolutions, radiometric accuracy cannot be recovered once a measurement is made, making the choice to invest in this capability now a decision with lasting consequences for the climate record. CLARREO Pathfinder is demonstrating that this combination of hyperspectral sampling and benchmark-quality accuracy is achievable today, but no follow-on mission is currently planned within NASA's Earth Science Division portfolio, and the recent cancellation of the European Space Agency TRUTHS mission has heightened the urgency of sustaining this capability. We recommend prioritizing investment in a follow-on to CLARREO Pathfinder, along with dedicated support for the science community to fully exploit these measurements. This capability would reduce long-standing uncertainties in cloud feedback, aerosol forcing, and global energy imbalance, while providing a degradation-resistant, gap-resilient calibration foundation for the broader Earth observing system. Building on flight-proven technology and an engaged science community, this is a near-term, fiscally realistic opportunity to secure a foundational Earth observation capability for the coming decade.

satellite↗

NASA NTRS1999

Managing the Moon Program: Lessons Learned from Project Apollo

There have been many detailed historical studies of the process of deciding on and executing the Apollo lunar landing during the 1960s and early 1970s. From the announcement of President John F Kennedy on May 25, 1961, of his decision to land an American on the Moon by the end of the decade, through the first lunar landing on July 20, 1969, on to the last of six successful Moon landings with Apollo 17 in December 1972, NASA carried out Project Apollo with enthusiasm and aplomb. While there have been many studies recounting the history of Apollo, at the time of the 30th anniversary of the first lunar landing by Apollo 11, it seems appropriate to revisit the process of large-scale technological management as it related to the lunar mission. Consequently, the NASA History Office has chosen to publish this monograph containing the recollections of key partcipants in the management process. The collective oral history presented here was recorded in 1989 at the Johnson Space Center's Gilruth Recreation Center in Houston, Texas. It includes the recollections of key participants in Apollo's administration, addressing issues such as communication between field centers, the prioritization of technological goals, and the delegation of responsibility. The following people participated: George E. Muller, Owen W. Morris, Maxime A. Faget, Robert R. Gilruth, Christopher C. Kraft, and Howard W. (Bill) Tindall. The valuable perspectives of these individuals deepen and expand our understanding of this important historical event. This is the 14th in a series of special studies prepared by the NASA History Office. The Monographs in Aerospace History series is designed to provide a wide variety of investigations relative to the history of aeronautics and space. These publications are intended to be tightly focused in terms of subject, relatively short in length, and reproduced in an inexpensive format to allow timely and broad dissemination to researchers in aerospace history.

Source record↗

DOE OSTI2019

Visualizing feedstock siting in biomass production: Tradeoffs between economic and water quality objectives

New domestic, renewable energy resources must be considered to increase energy security in the U.S. Ethanol production through second-generation (cellulosic) feedstocks will help the U.S. meet the legislative Renewable Fuel Standard, which mandates 36 billion gallons of renewable fuels by 2022. Yet, conversion of cropland to meet the cellulosic feedstock production goals may have unforeseen environmental consequences. Here, using Soil Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) outputs and National Agricultural Statistics Service (USDA NASS) economic data, we conducted a spatial optimization of bioenergy feedstock introduction into the Arkansas White-Red River Basin based on water quality and economic objectives, subject to constraints on total land conversion. Results displayed tradeoffs between bioenergy yield for three crops (switchgrass, sorghum and poplar) and land rent objectives. Optimal solutions tended to prioritize conversion of land in eastern AWR subbasins where yield and water quality objective improvements were greatest. A small number of subbasins contributed to basin-wide water quality improvements, whereas subbasins contributing to economic benefits were more spatially dispersed, indicating that water quality responses are more likely to constrain feedstock placement. Biomass production targets can be met vianumerous spatial arrangements, whereas marginal improvement in water quality objectives can best be achieved by selectively siting perennial feedstocks in the eastern half of the region.

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗

DOE OSTI2024

Cyber-Informed Engineering (CIE) Benefits Quantification: Recommendations for Consideration

Cyber-Informed Engineering (CIE) integrates engineering principles into the design, development, and operation of cyber-physical systems (CPS) to mitigate or eliminate the impact of cyber-enabled attacks. In July 2024, Idaho National Laboratory (INL) engaged MITRE researchers to investigate methods for systematically measuring the benefits of CIE implementation. This included evaluating the success and outcomes of CIE, identifying and quantifying the value of early adoption, and determining the business justification for its implementation, especially in existing infrastructure. MITRE reviewed existing methods in engineering and cybersecurity to understand how organizations prioritize security investments, considering their strengths, weaknesses, and relevance to CIE stakeholders. Based on this analysis, MITRE proposed potential approaches for quantifying CIE benefits and provided recommendations for INL's consideration.

42 ENGINEERING↗

DOE OSTI2024

A framework for studying the effects of offshore wind energy development on birds and bats in the Eastern United States

Offshore wind energy development (OWED), while a key strategy for reducing carbon emissions, has potential negative effects to wildlife that should be examined to inform decision making and adaptive management as the industry expands. We present a conceptual framework to guide the long-term study of potential effects to birds and bats from OWED. This framework includes a focus on exposure and vulnerability as key determinants of risk. For birds and bats that are exposed to OWED, there are three main effects of interest that may impact survival and productivity: 1) collision mortality, 2) behavioral responses, including avoidance, displacement, and attraction, and 3) habitat-mediated effects to prey populations. If these OWED effects cause changes in survival and/or breeding success (e.g., fitness), they have the potential for population-level consequences, including changes in population size and structure. Understanding the influence of ecological drivers on exposure and effect parameters can help to disentangle the potential impacts of OWED from other stressors. We use this theoretical framework to summarize existing relevant knowledge and identify current priority research questions (n=22) for the eastern United States, where largescale development of OWED is primarily in the planning and early construction phase. We also identify recommendations for study design and further prioritization of research topics.

17 WIND ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2023

Completeness of the NASA/IPAC Extragalactic Database (NED) Local Volume Sample

We introduce the NASA/IPAC Extragalactic Database (NED) Local Volume Sample (NED-LVS), a subset of ~1.9 million objects with distances out to 1000 Mpc. We use UV and IR fluxes available in NED from all-sky surveys to derive physical properties, and estimate the completeness relative to the expected local luminosity density. The completeness relative to near-IR luminosities (which traces a galaxy's stellar mass) is roughly 100% at D < 30 Mpc and remains moderate (70%) out to 300 Mpc. For brighter galaxies (≳L * ), NED-LVS is ~100% complete out to ~400 Mpc. When compared to other local Universe samples (GLADE and HECATE), all three are ~100% complete below 30 Mpc. At distances beyond ~80 Mpc, NED-LVS is more complete than both GLADE and HECATE by ~10%–20%. NED-LVS is the underlying sample for the NED gravitational-wave follow-up service (NED-GWF), which provides prioritized lists of host candidates for GW events within minutes of alerts issued by the LIGO–Virgo–KAGRA collaboration. We test the prioritization of galaxies in the volume of GW170817 by three physical properties, where we find that both stellar mass and inverse specific star formation rate place the correct host galaxy in the top 10. In addition, NED-LVS can be used for a wide variety of other astrophysical studies: galaxy evolution, star formation, large-scale structure, galaxy environments, and more. The data in NED are updated regularly, and NED-LVS will be updated concurrently. Consequently, NED-LVS will continue to provide an increasingly complete sample of galaxies for a multitude of astrophysical research areas for years to come.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2019

Transcriptome-Wide Association Supplements Genome-Wide Association in Zea mays

Modern improvement of complex traits in agricultural species relies on successful associations of heritable molecular variation with observable phenotypes. Historically, this pursuit has primarily been based on easily measurable genetic markers. The recent advent of new technologies allows assaying and quantifying biological intermediates (hereafter endophenotypes) which are now readily measurable at a large scale across diverse individuals. The usefulness of endophenotypes for delineating the regulatory landscape of the genome and genetic dissection of complex trait variation remains underexplored in plants. The work presented here illustrated the utility of a large-scale (299-genotype and seven-tissue) gene expression resource to dissect traits across multiple levels of biological organization. Using single-tissue- and multi-tissue-based transcriptome-wide association studies (TWAS), we revealed that about half of the functional variation acts through altered transcript abundance for maize kernel traits, including 30 grain carotenoid abundance traits, 20 grain tocochromanol abundance traits, and 22 field-measured agronomic traits. Comparing the efficacy of TWAS with genomewide association studies (GWAS) and an ensemble approach that combines both GWAS and TWAS, we demonstrated that results of TWAS in combination with GWAS increase the power to detect known genes and aid in prioritizing likely causal genes. Using a variance partitioning approach in the largely independent maize Nested Association Mapping (NAM) population, we also showed that the most strongly associated genes identified by combining GWAS and TWAS explain more heritable variance for a majority of traits than the heritability captured by the random genes and the genes identified by GWAS or TWAS alone. As a result, this not only improves the ability to link genes to phenotypes, but also highlights the phenotypic consequences of regulatory variation in plants.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2023

Towards Development of a Conceptual Model for Mercury in Bear Creek, Oak Ridge, Tennessee (FY23 Update)

Mercury concentrations in fish in Bear Creek are elevated and comparable to concentrations seen in fish in East Fork Poplar Creek (EFPC) on the Oak Ridge Reservation, even though aqueous inorganic mercury concentrations are orders of magnitude lower in Bear Creek than in EFPC. Acknowledging that the relationship between aqueous and fish tissue mercury concentrations is not linear, and that methylmercury (MeHg) concentrations are likely more related to fish tissue concentrations than aqueous total mercury (Hg T ) concentrations, MeHg production is not easily predicted or controlled. In Bear Creek, where aqueous Hg T concentrations are low, factors other than mercury loading drive the transformation of mercury to MeHg and subsequent trophic transfer to fish. Initial development of a waste disposal facility (Environmental Management Disposal Facility; EMDF) in Bear Creek Valley has begun, and operation of the EMDF has the potential to increase mercury inputs to Bear Creek. Consequently, understanding the factors contributing to elevated MeHg concentrations in water and fish in Bear Creek has increased relevance and importance. This report summarizes data from recent and historical compliance and investigatory studies with an eye toward building a conceptual model to understand the processes affecting mercury transport and transformation in the Bear Creek watershed, as well as to highlight key knowledge gaps in our understanding of these processes that warrant further investigation. The conceptual model will provide a strong technical basis for prioritizing and optimizing potential mitigation actions or best management practices to minimize potential negative effects of the EMDF related to mercury in Bear Creek.

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗

DOE OSTI2016

Aquatic Nuisance Species in the Great Lakes and Mississippi River Basin—A Risk Assessment in Support of GLMRIS

The U.S. Army Corps of Engineers (USACE) is conducting the Great Lakes and Mississippi River Interbasin Study (GLMRIS) to determine the aquatic nuisance species (ANS) currently established in either the Mississippi River Basin (MRB) or the Great Lakes Basin (GLB) that pose the greatest risk to the other basin. The GLRMIS study focuses specifically on ANS transfer through the Chicago Area Waterway System (CAWS), a multi-use waterway connecting the two basins. In support of GLMRIS, we conducted a qualitative risk assessment for 34 ANS in which we determined overall risk level for four time intervals over a 50-year period of analysis based on the probability of ANS establishing in a new basin and the environmental, economic, and sociopolitical consequences of their establishment. Probability of establishment and consequences of establishment were assigned qualitative ratings of high, medium, or low and establishment and consequence ratings were then combined into an overall risk rating. Over the 50-year period of analysis, seven species were characterized as posing a medium risk and two species as posing a high risk to the MRB. Three species were characterized as posing a medium risk to the GLB, but no high-risk species were identified for this basin. Based on the time frame in which these species were considered likely to establish in the new basin, risk increased over time for some ANS. Identifying and prioritizing ANS risk supported the development and evaluation of multiple control alternatives that could reduce the probability of interbasin ANS transfer. However, both species traits and the need to balance multiple uses of the CAWS make it difficult to design cost-efficient and socially acceptable controls to reduce the probability of ANS transfer between the two basins.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2019

Washington State Highway Bridge Seismic Screening Tool (BSST) (Technical Report)

The Regional Resiliency Assessment Program (RRAP) is a cooperative assessment of specific critical infrastructure within a designated geographic area and a regional analysis of the surrounding infrastructure that addresses a range of infrastructure resilience issues that could have regionally and nationally significant consequences. In 2017, the U.S. Department of Homeland Security’s Cybersecurity and Infrastructure Security Agency (CISA) sponsored the Washington State Transportation Systems RRAP project in coordination with the Washington Emergency Management Division (EMD), Washington State Department of Transportation (WSDOT), and other regional stakeholders. This project is focused on assessing the impacts of a Cascadia Subduction Zone (CSZ) earthquake on state transportation systems and, in particular, how those impacts may affect the ability of emergency response efforts to move supplies into the region. The intended outcome of this analysis is the prioritization of transportation routes and modes for additional planning, investment, hardening, or other activities to enhance their resilience - and therefore, to enhance their ability to support response and recovery efforts following a CSZ earthquake. An important part of this transportation system-level assessment has been to assess the seismic vulnerability of the state highway system. In doing so, the RRAP project team developed a Bridge Seismic Screening Tool (BSST) to assess, at a system-level, the potential impacts that a CSZ earthquake could have on state highway bridges. The first step in the BSST is to assess the seismic vulnerability of highway bridge infrastructure in Washington State following a CSZ earthquake to determine a projected or potential damage state. Damage states are then used to determine approximate reopening times for bridge crossings.2 This document provides details on the methodological development of the BSST, the implementation of that tool to analyze the projected damage incurred in a CSZ earthquake scenario, and the determination of corresponding reopening times of interstate and state highway bridges following such an event. The BSST was implemented programmatically using a Microsoft Excel macro-enabled workbook; instructions on use of this tool are provided in the accompanying report, Washington State Highway Bridge Seismic Screening Tool (BSST) - User Manual.

42 ENGINEERING↗

DOE OSTI2021

SAM Co-Development to Support Fluoride-salt-cooled High-temperature Reactor Design and Licensing (CRADA 2018-18177 Final Report)

This project aims to raise the SAM code's technical and commercial maturity level to enable the Kairos Power ("Kairos") to use SAM to support its KP-FHR design analysis and licensing application. Argonne National Laboratory ("Argonne") has actively developed and maintained SAM, a modern system-level analysis tool for advanced nonlight water reactors safety analysis. Kairos is currently actively pursuing development of an FHR design and associated technology, and consequently requires a pedigreed safety analysis tool. The purpose of this project is to increase the maturity of the SAM code for the modeling and simulation of the KP-FHR design, thus enabling its use in safety analyses that support licensing application. Argonne will primarily be responsible for software design, development, and testing; while Kairos will be responsible for software requirements, assessment of software capabilities, needs, gaps, and priorities, and development of proprietary models. The research and development activities for the joint SAM development project include: a series of identification and prioritization studies on design characteristics, event sequences, relevant phenomena, and software capabilities; SAM capability enhancements for specific KP-FHR systems and components; performing code verification and validations; integrating uncertainty quantification (UQ), model calibration, and sensitivity analysis (SA) techniques in safety analyses; and raising the software quality rigor level for commercial-grade applications.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗

DOE OSTI2023

Spatiotemporal Variability of Electric System Reliability Metrics

As urbanization continues to grow, urban density also rises, placing significant stress on critical infrastructure. Cities often face challenges in investing in new infrastructure or upgrading existing ones. One area of infrastructure that has come under strain is the electric grid, leading to prolonged power outages. According to data from the U.S. Energy Information Administration, the average duration of power outages has steadily doubled from 2013 to 2021, primarily due to extreme weather events. The IEEE has developed a series of reliability metrics to assess the reliability of the electric system. However, these metrics are only applied at the utility level, making it challenging to comprehend the variations in these indices at finer spatial resolutions and, consequently, evaluate reliability at the non-utility level. In this study, we leveraged electric outage data collected at 15-minute intervals at the county level to estimate electric system reliability over a six-year period using a novel data analysis approach. Our findings reveal a gradual decline in reliability in the U.S. Southwest compared to national averages. Furthermore, the duration of outages per customer per event has significantly decreased in large portions of California and Florida. These discoveries can be valuable for utility companies as they seek to pinpoint regional anomalies and plan for prioritized remediation efforts.

Singh, Nagendra↗