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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 91 records · Page 5
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2021

Estimating and Forecasting Time-Varying Groundwater Recharge in Fractured Rock: A State-Space Formulation with Preferential and Diffuse Flow to the Water Table

Rapid infiltration following precipitation may result in groundwater contamination from surface contaminants or pathogens. In fractured rock, contaminants can migrate rapidly to points of groundwater withdrawals. In contrast to the temporal availability of groundwater quality chemical indicators, meteorological and groundwater level observations are available in real-time to estimate time-varying recharge, which can act as a surrogate to identify periods of rapid infiltration that may indicate contamination susceptibility. Estimating recharge using methods, such as base-flow recession, unsaturated infiltration models, or Water-Table Fluctuations (WTF), cannot capitalize on currently available technologies and telecommunication infrastructure to conduct real-time recharge estimation at scales relevant to characterizing rapid infiltration. We present a linear, physics-based State-Space (SS) model of one-dimensional infiltration to estimate recharge, which includes preferential and diffuse-flow to the water table. The model can take advantage of real-time data for water-table altitude, precipitation, and evapotranspiration. Model parameters are calibrated over an observation period, and the Kalman Filter (KF) is subsequently applied to continuously update the observed (water-table altitude) and unobserved (groundwater recharge) system states and predict future states as new data become available. The SS/KF algorithm is demonstrated at the Masser Groundwater Recharge Site in Pennsylvania, USA and comparisons are made with recharge estimates from WTF methods. Model results indicate that the frequency of observations (daily versus sub-daily) dictates the allocation between preferential and diffuse flow. Additionally, because infiltration processes encompass many nonlinearities, model parameters estimated from observation periods need to be updated at least seasonally to account for changing recharge conditions.

groundwater, Recharge, infiltration, recursive est↗
DOE OSTI2020

Ubiquitous Traffic Volume Estimation through Machine-Learning Procedure

Traffic volume data is one of the most important metrics for accurate assessment of the performance of a transportation system. Quality volume data is required to effectively assess extent of delay and congestion, detect real-time perturbations to the network, and understand traffic patterns during major weather events. Traffic volume on freeways are typically collected through continuous count stations installed by state DOTs, while there is lack of traffic volume observability on off-freeway roads. The National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), in Collaboration with the I-95 Corridor Coalition and the University of Maryland, extended its research into estimating volumes anywhere anytime from industry probe based data for off-freeway roads. NREL combined vehicle probe count data with several other data sets (speed, whether, roadway geometry, time-of-day, day-of-week, etc.) to estimate hourly volumes as well as AADTs. The research validated and demonstrated the machine learning model, namely XGBoost, using data collected from Pennsylvania, North Carolina, and Tennessee.

47 OTHER INSTRUMENTATION↗
DOE OSTI2021

Pulsar-Calibrated Timing Source for Synchronized Sampling

The Global Positioning System (GPS) is critical to the real-time synchronized sampling of phasor measurement units (PMUs). Unfortunately, GPS signals are occasionally unstable due to several factors such as weak satellite signal and GPS spoofing, thereby leaving the PMU with a degraded sampling performance. In this letter, a novel Pulsar-calibrated Timing Source (PTS) is proposed as the alternative timing source for synchronized sampling. Further, the PTS can generate the timing signal with a 1 μs drift error within 91 holdover minutes to ensure continuity of sampling accuracy. Experimental tests are conducted and the results reveal the reliability and accuracy of the PTS for PMU synchronization.

42 ENGINEERING↗
NASA NTRS2019

In-Time Non-Participant Casualty Risk Assessment to Support Onboard Decision Making for Autonomous Unmanned Aircraft

Numerous operational paradigms, technologies, and missions are emerging as newcomers to the National Airspace System (NAS) develop small Unmanned Aircraft Systems (sUAS), personal air vehicles and other Urban Air Mobility (UAM) concepts. As the list of applications expands, maintaining the safety of the current airspace system remains one of the core concerns preventing widespread commercial implementation of these concepts. Further, the risks associated with unmanned aircraft operations themselves have to be recognized and mitigated in a timely manner. Safety-critical risks include, but are not limited to, flight outside of approved airspace, unsafe proximity to people or property, critical system failures, loss-of control, and cyber-security related risks. Instead of reacting to accidents, a set of predictive and data-driven risk monitoring, assessment, and mitigation capabilities are envisioned to help capture and eliminate hazards as these systems become operational. NASA’s System-wide Safety project is performing R&D on such a safety assurance concept. As part of this concept, this paper describes an architecture that continuously monitors a diverse set of onboard and ground-based sources to estimate and predict non-participant casualty risk during flight. Timely identification of the changing nature of this risk can inform decision making processes to mitigate current and impending situations.

Ancel, Ersin↗
DOE OSTI2022

Real-Time Distribution System State Estimation with Asynchronous Measurements

We report state estimation is a fundamental task in power systems. Although distribution systems are increasingly equipped with sensing devices and smart meters, measurements are typically reported at different rates and asynchronously; these aspects pose severe strains on workhorse state estimation algorithms, which are designed to process batches of data collected in a synchronous manner from all the measurement units. In this paper, we develop a novel state estimation algorithm to continuously update the estimate of the state based on measurements received in an asynchronous manner from measurement units. The synthesis of the algorithm hinges on a proximal-point type method, implemented in an online fashion, and capable of processing measurements received sequentially from sensors. A performance analysis is presented by providing bounds on the estimation error in terms of the mean and variance that hold at each iteration and asymptotically. The scheme is also compared with a more traditional Weighted Least Squares estimator that compensates for the lack of measurement data by using, as pseudo measurements, the measurement retrieved during a certain time window. Numerical simulations on the IEEE 37-bus feeder corroborate the analytical findings.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗
DOE OSTI2020

Evaluation of Component Reliability in Photovoltaic Systems using Field Failure Statistics

Ongoing operations and maintenance (O&M) are needed to ensure photovoltaic (PV) systems continue to operate and meet production targets over the lifecycle of the system. Although average costs to operate and maintain PV systems have been decreasing over time, reported costs can vary significantly at the plant level. Estimating O&M costs accurately is important for informing financial planning and tracking activities, and subsequently lowering the levelized cost of electricity (LCOE) of PV systems. This report describes a methodology for improving O&M planning estimates by using empirically-derived failure statistics to capture component reliability in the field. The report also summarizes failure patterns observed for specific PV components and local environmental conditions observed in Sandia's PV Reliability, Operations & Maintenance (PVROM) database, a collection of field records across 800+ systems in the U.S. Where system-specific or fleet-specific data are lacking, PVROM-derived failure distribution values can be used to inform cost modeling and other reliability analyses to evaluate opportunities for performance improvements.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2023

Conservation of Helium while Maintaining High System Purity

Recent helium shortages and helium price increases have lead to an increased emphasis being placed on conserving helium. The need to conserve helium must be balanced with need to maintain the high levels of purity necessary to prevent operational problems caused by contamination. Helium losses and contamination control are especially important for test stands that have cryogenic distribution systems operating continuously with frequent changeover of cryogenic temperature components that are being tested. This paper describes a mathematical model to estimate the quantity of helium lost and the purity of the helium after the pump and backfill procedure is complete. The process to determine the optimal time during pump down to cut off pumping and start backfilling is described. There is a tradeoff between trying to achieve the lowest possible pressure during pumping and the quantity of air leaking into the volume while pumping is occurring. An additional benefit of careful selection of pump and backfill parameters in conjunction with real-time pressure monitoring can reduce the labor and time required to complete a successful pump and backfill procedure. This paper is intended to be a tool for engineers to review their pump and backfill procedures and measured data to optimize helium losses, system purity, and labor required.

46 INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND ↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

The Surface Longwave Downward Fluxes of the NASA GEWEX SRB Release 4.0 IP Products: Validation Against the Surface-Based BSRN and PMEL Observed Data

Since the NASA Global Energy Water Exchanges (GEWEX) Surface Radiation Budget (SRB) project released its 3rd version of products in 2010, the GEWEX Data Assessments Panel (GDAP) has been working on integrating various data products to address issues in the closing of the global energy and water cycles. The 4th version of the SRB products, Rel. 4.0-IP, has integrated data products from the cloud, aerosol, atmosphere, ocean surface, and land surface projects, coordinating within GDAP, to produce a long-term time series of TOA and surface radiative estimates. The Rel. 4-IP shortwave products span 34 years continuously from July 1983 to June 2017 on a quasi-equal-area 1degree longitude by 1degree latitude grid system. The longwave products are for land only from 1983-07 to 1987-12; for both land and ocean from 1988-01 to 2009-12; and ocean only from 2010-01 to 2017-06. The data are provided at 3 hourly, 3-hourly-monthly, daily and monthly means. The ISCCP HXS clouds and radiances are the key cloud input of the current GEWEX SRB algorithms. In addition, the longwave algorithm has also made changes in cloud microphysical property, surface skin temperature input, surface emissivity, atmospheric profile, adding longwave aerosol optical properties, revising cloud overlap procedure, and so on. Details of changes in both inputs and algorithms are documented in a NASA Algorithm Theoretical Basis Document (ATBD). We have validated the surface longwave downward fluxes against the surface-based Baseline Surface Radiation Network (BSRN) and the Pacific Marine Environmental Laboratory (PMEL) buoy data. As of 2020, the BSRN archive has 12,116 site-months of observed records from 73 stations on all seven continents, and as of 2017, PMEL archive has 4389 buoy months of observed records from 64 buoys deployed in the tropics of Pacific, Atlantic and Indian Oceans. This paper presents how the SRB Rel. 4.0-IP surface longwave downward fluxes compare with these surface-based measurements and how the comparison statistics differ from that of Rel. 3.0.

GEWEX SRB↗
DOE OSTI2023

Conservation of Helium while Maintaining High System Purity

Recent helium shortages and helium price increases have lead to an increased emphasis being placed on conserving helium. The need to conserve helium must be balanced with need to maintain the high levels of purity necessary to prevent operational problems caused by contamination. Helium losses and contamination control are especially important for test stands that have cryogenic distribution systems operating continuously with frequent changeover of cryogenic temperature components that are being tested. This paper describes a mathematical model to estimate the quantity of helium lost and the purity of the helium after the pump and backfill procedure is complete. The process to determine the optimal time during pump down to cut off pumping and start backfilling is described. There is a tradeoff between trying to achieve the lowest possible pressure during pumping and the quantity of air leaking into the volume while pumping is occurring. An additional benefit of careful sel ection of pump and backfill parameters in conjunction with real-time pressure monitoring can reduce the labor and time required to complete a successful pump and backfill procedure. This paper is intended to be a tool for engineers to review their pump and backfill procedures and measured data to optimize helium losses, system purity, and labor required.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗
DOE OSTI2023

Deriving spatially explicit direct and indirect interaction networks from animal movement data

Abstract Quantifying spatiotemporally explicit interactions within animal populations facilitates the understanding of social structure and its relationship with ecological processes. Data from animal tracking technologies (Global Positioning Systems [“GPS”]) can circumvent longstanding challenges in the estimation of spatiotemporally explicit interactions, but the discrete nature and coarse temporal resolution of data mean that ephemeral interactions that occur between consecutive GPS locations go undetected. Here, we developed a method to quantify individual and spatial patterns of interaction using continuous‐time movement models (CTMMs) fit to GPS tracking data. We first applied CTMMs to infer the full movement trajectories at an arbitrarily fine temporal scale before estimating interactions, thus allowing inference of interactions occurring between observed GPS locations. Our framework then infers indirect interactions—individuals occurring at the same location, but at different times—while allowing the identification of indirect interactions to vary with ecological context based on CTMM outputs. We assessed the performance of our new method using simulations and illustrated its implementation by deriving disease‐relevant interaction networks for two behaviorally differentiated species, wild pigs ( Sus scrofa ) that can host African Swine Fever and mule deer ( Odocoileus hemionus ) that can host chronic wasting disease. Simulations showed that interactions derived from observed GPS data can be substantially underestimated when temporal resolution of movement data exceeds 30‐min intervals. Empirical application suggested that underestimation occurred in both interaction rates and their spatial distributions. CTMM‐Interaction method, which can introduce uncertainties, recovered majority of true interactions. Our method leverages advances in movement ecology to quantify fine‐scale spatiotemporal interactions between individuals from lower temporal resolution GPS data. It can be leveraged to infer dynamic social networks, transmission potential in disease systems, consumer–resource interactions, information sharing, and beyond. The method also sets the stage for future predictive models linking observed spatiotemporal interaction patterns to environmental drivers.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2018

A phase model approach for thermostatically controlled load demand response

A significant portion of electricity consumed worldwide is used to power thermostatically controlled loads (TCLs) such as air conditioners, refrigerators, and water heaters. Because the short-term timing of operation of such systems is inconsequential as long as their long-run average power consumption is maintained, they are increasingly used in demand response (DR) programs to balance supply and demand on the power grid. Here, we present an ab initio phase model for general TCLs, and use the concept to develop a continuous oscillator model of a TCL and compute its phase response to changes in temperature and applied power. This yields a simple control system model that can be used to evaluate control policies for modulating the power consumption of aggregated loads with parameter heterogeneity and stochastic drift. We demonstrate this concept by comparing simulations of ensembles of heterogeneous loads using the continuous state model and an established hybrid state model. The developed phase model approach is a novel means of evaluating DR provision using TCLs, and is instrumental in estimating the capacity of ancillary services or DR on different time scales. We further propose a novel phase response based open-loop control policy that effectively modulates the aggregate power of a heterogeneous TCL population while maintaining load diversity and minimizing power overshoots. This is demonstrated by low-error tracking of a regulation signal by filtering it into frequency bands and using TCL sub-ensembles with duty cycles in corresponding ranges. As a result, control policies that can maintain a uniform distribution of power consumption by aggregated heterogeneous loads will enable distribution system management (DSM) approaches that maintain stability as well as power quality, and further allow more integration of renewable energy sources.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗
DOE OSTI2020

Network-Scale Ubiquitous Volume Estimation Using Tree-Based Ensemble Learning Methods

Currently ubiquitous volume data for roadway networks remains the key missing dimension in traffic operations. Most volume data are average annual daily traffic (AADT) measures derived from the Highway Performance Monitoring System (HPMS). Although methods to factor the AADT to hourly averages for typical day of week exist, actual volume data is limited to a sparse collection of locations in which volumes are continuously recorded. This paper/poster explores the use of state-of-art machine learning techniques to estimate accurate volume measures that span the highway network providing ubiquitous coverage in space, and point-in-time measures for a specific date and time. Three tree-based ensemble learning models, random forest (RF), gradient boost machine (GBM), and extreme gradient boost (XGBoost), were tested for volume estimation by learning from combined dataset of commercial probe data provided by TomTom, the FHWA's Travel Monitoring Analysis System (TMAS) data, and other infrastructure attributes such as number of lanes, speed limit, and weather. The methods were tested on major corridors and freeways in the metropolitan area of Denver. All three machine learning methods were able to provide hourly volume estimates 24 hours a day, 7 days a week, and 365 days a year with around 18% mean absolute error to true volume and about 5% of error with respect to roadway capacity. The low error measures allow the potential application by transportation agencies.

33 ADVANCED PROPULSION SYSTEMS↗
DOE OSTI2020

Continuous-time Monte Carlo renormalization group

We implement the Monte Carlo renormalization group approach in the continuous-time Monte Carlo simulation of a quantum system. In this work, we demonstrate numerically the emergent isotropy between space and time at large distances for the systems that exhibit Lorentz invariance at quantum criticality. Here, this allows us to estimate accurately the sound velocity for these quantum systems. $\textit{Q}$-state Potts models in one and two space dimensions are used to illustrate the method.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗
NASA NTRS1994

Adaptive model reduction for continuous systems via recursive rational interpolation

A method for adaptive identification of reduced-order models for continuous stable SISO and MIMO plants is presented. The method recursively finds a model whose transfer function (matrix) matches that of the plant on a set of frequencies chosen by the designer. The algorithm utilizes the Moving Discrete Fourier Transform (MDFT) to continuously monitor the frequency-domain profile of the system input and output signals. The MDFT is an efficient method of monitoring discrete points in the frequency domain of an evolving function of time. The model parameters are estimated from MDFT data using standard recursive parameter estimation techniques. The algorithm has been shown in simulations to be quite robust to additive noise in the inputs and outputs. A significant advantage of the method is that it enables a type of on-line model validation. This is accomplished by simultaneously identifying a number of models and comparing each with the plant in the frequency domain. Simulations of the method applied to an 8th-order SISO plant and a 10-state 2-input 2-output plant are presented. An example of on-line model validation applied to the SISO plant is also presented.

Lilly, John H.↗
NASA NTRS2009

System Synchronizes Recordings from Separated Video Cameras

A system of electronic hardware and software for synchronizing recordings from multiple, physically separated video cameras is being developed, primarily for use in multiple-look-angle video production. The system, the time code used in the system, and the underlying method of synchronization upon which the design of the system is based are denoted generally by the term "Geo-TimeCode(TradeMark)." The system is embodied mostly in compact, lightweight, portable units (see figure) denoted video time-code units (VTUs) - one VTU for each video camera. The system is scalable in that any number of camera recordings can be synchronized. The estimated retail price per unit would be about $350 (in 2006 dollars). The need for this or another synchronization system external to video cameras arises because most video cameras do not include internal means for maintaining synchronization with other video cameras. Unlike prior video-camera-synchronization systems, this system does not depend on continuous cable or radio links between cameras (however, it does depend on occasional cable links lasting a few seconds). Also, whereas the time codes used in prior video-camera-synchronization systems typically repeat after 24 hours, the time code used in this system does not repeat for slightly more than 136 years; hence, this system is much better suited for long-term deployment of multiple cameras.

Nail, William↗
NASA NTRS1983

Reliability with imperfect diagnostics

A reliability estimation method for systems that continually accumulate faults because of imperfect diagnostics is developed and an application for redundant digital avionics is presented. The present method assumes that if a fault does not appear in a short period of time, it will remain hidden until a majority of components are faulty and the system fails. A certain proportion of a component's faults are detected in a short period of time, and a description of their detection is included in the reliability model. A Markov model of failure during flight for a nonreconfigurable five-plex is presented for a sequence of one-hour flights followed by maintenance.

White, A. L.↗
NASA NTRS1991

Linear system theory

The aim of this book is to provide a systematic and rigorous access to the main topics of linear state-space system theory in both the continuous-time case and the discrete-time case; and the I/O description of linear systems. The main thrusts of the work are the analysis of system descriptions and derivations of their properties, LQ-optimal control, state feedback and state estimation, and MIMO unity-feedback systems.

Callier, Frank M.↗
NASA NTRS2010

Life Cycle Cost Growth Study for the Discovery and New Frontiers Program Office

The D&NF Program Office LCC Management Study provides a detailed look at the drivers underlying cost overruns and schedule delays for five D&NF missions. While none of the findings are new, the study underlines the importance of continued emphasis on sound project management techniques: a clean project management structure with a clear definition of roles and responsibilities across the various partners in a project, an understanding of institutional standards and procedures and any differences among the partners, and the critical need for a comprehensive IMS that can be used easily and routinely to identify potential threats to the critical path. The study also highlights the continuing need for realistic estimates of the total LCC. Sufficient time and resources must be allocated early in a project to ensure that the appropriate trade studies and analyses are performed across all aspects of a mission: spacecraft, ground system, operations concept, and fault management, to ensure that proposed and confirmed costs truly reflect the resource requirements over the entire mission life cycle. These studies need to include a realistic review of the assumptions underlying the use of new technologies, the integration of heritage and new hardware and software into the total mission environment, and any development and test savings based on heritage technology and lessons learned. Finally, the LCC Management Study stresses the need to listen to, carefully consider, and take positive action regarding the issues raised during reviews by the expert review teams.

Barley, Bryan↗