Results for “conventional vehicles” — Page 5

DOE OSTI2020

Medium-duty Urban Range Extended Connected Powertrain (Final Scientific Technical Report)

The project goal is to develop and demonstrate a Class 4 delivery vehicle that reduces fuel consumption by 50% or more when compared to an equivalent vehicle with a conventional internal combustion engine (ICE) powertrain driven on a comparable duty cycle. This shall be achieved using a plug-in hybrid electric (PHEV) configuration that optimizes the efficiency of the ICE. The proposed solution aims to be commercially viable for fleets to procure the system without additional incentives. To accomplish this, commercialized light-duty vehicle electric drive components shall be used. A PHEV configuration for Class 4 MD/HD vocational vehicles using commercialized light-duty vehicle electric drive components will require the development of a new topology for the hybrid powertrain applicable to medium-duty vehicles. Prior research indicates that an identified novel power split device could provide a fuel economy improvement potential of up to 51%. Utilizing an advanced battery management algorithm that will allow operation closer to the battery limits, the project will minimize battery capacity to achieve the desired performance results while maintaining the cost target for high commercialization. The solution must be cost effective to purchase and integrate into a Class 4 delivery vehicle, deliver the intended fuel economy improvement, and perform as well, or better, than the current conventional ICE powertrain. MD/HD vehicles typically require higher power, which is one factor that results in high costs for the powerful electric machines typical in larger HEV/PHEV systems. A key element in the project is the use of commercially available Bosch electric drive components (e.g., motors, batteries, and power electronics) from the larger passenger vehicle segment. This leverages the economies of scale to decrease cost and improve reliability beyond current purpose-built low-volume commercial vehicle components. These innovations will result in a game-changing PHEV system that meets DOE’s 50% fuel consumption reduction target, grants the vehicle an uncompromised driving range, and achieves the cost point for widespread adoption.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

DOE OSTI2020

RouteE: A Vehicle Energy Consumption Prediction Engine

The emergence of connected and automated vehicles and smart cities technologies create the opportunity for new mobility modes and routing decision tools, among many others. To achieve maximum mobility and minimum energy consumption, it is critical to understand the energy cost of decisions and optimize accordingly. The Route Energy prediction model (RouteE) enables accurate estimation of energy consumption for a variety of vehicle types over trips or sub-trips where detailed drive cycle data are unavailable. Applications include vehicle route selection, energy accounting and optimization in transportation simulation, and corridor energy analyses, among others. The software is a Python package that includes a variety of pre-trained models from the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL). However, RouteE also enables users to train custom models using their own data sets, making it a robust and valuable tool for both fast calculations and rigorous, data-rich research efforts. The pre-trained RouteE models are established using NREL’s Future Automotive Systems Technology Simulator paired with approximately 1 million miles of drive cycle data from the Transportation Secure Data Center, resulting in energy consumption behavior estimates over a representative sample of driving conditions for the United States. Validations have been performed using on-road fuel consumption data for conventional and electrified vehicle powertrains. Transferring the results of the on-road validation to a larger set of real-world origin-destination pairs, it is estimated that implementing the present methodology in a green-routing application would accurately select the route that consumes the least fuel 90% of the time. The novel machine learning techniques used in RouteE make it a flexible and robust tool for a variety of transportation applications.

33 ADVANCED PROPULSION SYSTEMS↗

DOE OSTI2022

A Comprehensive Simulation Study to Evaluate Future Vehicle Energy and Cost Reduction Potential

Under the umbrella of EERE’s Office of Sustainable Transportation, the U.S. Department of Energy’s (DOE) Vehicle Technologies Office (VTO) and Hydrogen and Fuel Cell Technologies Office (HFTO) seek to develop sustainable, affordable, and efficient technologies for transportation of goods and people. Translating investments in advanced transportation component technologies and powertrains to estimate the potential for vehicle-level fuel savings is critical to understanding DOE’s impact and success in this mission For this study, Argonne National Laboratory (Argonne) simulated technologies funded by VTO and HFTO for light-duty vehicles across the following: Powertrain configurations (conventional, power-split hybrid electric vehicle, extended-range electric vehicle, battery electric drive, and fuel-cell vehicles); Vehicle classes (compact car, mid-size car, small sport utility vehicle [SUV], mid-size SUV, and pickup truck); Fuels (gasoline, diesel, natural gas, hydrogen, and battery electricity). We assessed each technology for five different timeframes: laboratory years 2015 (reference), 2020, 2025, 2030, and 2045. We assumed a delay of 5 years between laboratory year and model year (i.e., the year the technology is introduced into production). Finally, we included uncertainties for both technology performance and cost by considering two cases (note that these cases are not intended as predictions of future performance): Low case , aligned with DOE technology manager estimates of expected original equipment manufacturer (OEM) improvements based on business as usual regulatory and market environments; High case , aligned with aggressive technology advancements based on research and development (R&D) targets developed through support by VTO and HFTO. We estimated the energy and cost impact of different technologies using Autonomie (Argonne undated), a state-of-the-art vehicle system simulation tool developed by Argonne and used to assess the energy consumption, performance, and cost of multiple advanced vehicle technologies. The tool comprises a complete set of vehicle models to assess impacts across a wide range of classes (from light- to heavy-duty), powertrain configurations (from conventional to hybrid electric vehicles [HEVs], fuel cell electric vehicles [FCEVs], plug-in hybrid electric vehicles [PHEVs], and battery electric vehicles [BEVs]), components, and control strategies, including vehicle-level and component-level controls developed and calibrated using dynamometer test data. Autonomie has been used to support a wide range of studies: analyzing various component technologies, sizing powertrain components to meet different vehicle requirements, comparing the benefits of powertrain configurations, optimizing both heuristic and route-based vehicle energy control, and predicting transportation energy use when paired with a traffic modeling tool such as POLARIS. This report documents the assumptions made and the vehicle-level energy consumption benefits and associated technology costs estimated for various types of light-duty vehicles. Details regarding vehicle assumptions and simulation results are available in the spreadsheets accompanying this report.

08 HYDROGEN↗

DOE OSTI2022

How do perceptions of safety and car ownership importance affect autonomous vehicle adoption?

In this study, we explicitly modeled how individuals' perceptions of automated vehicle (AV) safety and the importance they place on car ownership affect mode choices involving conventional and automated vehicles in the context of privately owned cars and ridehailing services. We adopted psychometric questions to capture these two latent variables and designed a stated preference survey based on the participants' actual travel patterns. Then, we quantified the impact of these latent variables on mode choices using an integrated choice and latent variable (ICLV) model. We found that both latent variables have a statistically significant effect on mode choices. The results show that car ownership importance has the most potent effect on privately owned cars (conventional car and self-driving car), followed by driverless ridehailing and conventional ridehailing. We also found that changes in safety perception are equivalent to sizable changes in price. In addition, we further investigated the impact of improvements in safety perception through four scenarios. The scenario testing results show that as the distribution of perceived safety is compressed toward positive safety perception, the market share of AVs spikes and dominates regular cars. Our results demonstrate that based on our respondents' current understanding of AVs, even if AV prices were comparable to regular cars, we cannot expect widespread use of AVs. However, improvements in AVs' safety and, consequently, consumer safety perception can considerably expand AVs' market share, and may offset the high cost of using the technology.

33 ADVANCED PROPULSION SYSTEMS↗

DOE OSTI2023

Model Based Validation of Intelligent Powertrain Strategies for Connected and Automated Vehicles

Systems incorporating Vehicle to Everything (V2X) and conventional cellular based communication in vehicles can significantly help improve energy consumption via a combination of intelligent powertrain control strategies, smarter routing algorithms and driving in such a way as to minimize fuel economy and the emission of carbon dioxide, known as "eco-driving." In projects led by the Southwest Research Institute (SwRI), large-scale traffic simulations are created to model real-world scenarios with dynamic behavior that is reactive to imposed changes. Coupled with high fidelity powertrain models, the closed loop framework enables research and development of such Connected and Automated Vehicle (CAV) enabled technologies at scale. This paper will discuss a traffic system simulation environment that was built based on the High Street urban corridor in Columbus, Ohio. Eco-driving strategies were tested at scale on a variety of powertrain platforms – internal combustion engines, hybrid electric and fully electric vehicles. Furthermore, the paper will focus on hybrid electric powertrain modeling along with details on how the powertrain model was leveraged to develop a sophisticated clustering scheme to help down-select speed traces from large scale simulation studies for validation on vehicle dynamometer. Nominal energy consumption improvement around 12% was observed with good match between simulation studies and vehicle testing.

33 ADVANCED PROPULSION SYSTEMS↗

DOE OSTI2020

Development and Demonstration of a Class 6 Range-Extended Electric Vehicle for Commercial Pickup and Delivery Operation: Preprint

Range-extended hybrids are an attractive option for medium- and heavy-duty commercial vehicle fleets because they offer the efficiency of an electrified powertrain with the driving range of a conventional diesel powertrain. The vehicle essentially operates as if it was purely electric for most trips, while ensuring that all commercial routes can be completed in any weather conditions or geographic terrain. Fuel use and point-source emissions can be significantly reduced, and in some cases eliminated, as many shorter routes can be fully electrified with this architecture. Under a U.S. Department of Energy (DOE)-funded project for Medium- and Heavy-Duty Vehicle Powertrain Electrification, Cummins has developed a plug-in hybrid electric Class 6 truck with a range-extending engine designed for pickup and delivery application. The National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) assisted by developing representative workday drive cycles for Class 6 operation and an adapted cycle to enable vehicle track testing. A novel, automated driving system was utilized by Southwest Research Institute (SwRI) to improve the repeatability of the track testing conducted to quantify vehicle energy consumption. Cummins used a drivetrain model to design the hybrid control system for increased fuel savings. The control system functionality and fuel savings objective of 50% or more were confirmed by track testing described in this paper.

ADVANCED PROPULSION SYSTEMS↗

DOE OSTI2020

Greenhouse gases, Regulated Emissions, and Energy use in Technologies Model ® (2020 .Net)

To fully evaluate energy and emission impacts of advanced vehicle technologies and new transportation fuels, the fuel cycle from wells to wheels and the vehicle cycle through material recovery and vehicle disposal need to be considered. Sponsored by the U.S. Department of Energy's Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE), Argonne has developed a full life-cycle model called GREET (Greenhouse gases, Regulated Emissions, and Energy use in Technologies). It allows researchers and analysts to evaluate various vehicle and fuel combinations on a full fuel-cycle/vehicle-cycle basis. The first version of GREET was released in 1996. Since then, Argonne has continued to update and expand the model. GREET.Net provides the user with an easy to use and fully graphical toolbox to perform life cycle analysis simulations of alternative transportation fuels and vehicle technologies in a matter of a few clicks. It provides a comprehensive, life-cycle-based approach to compare the energy use and emissions of conventional and advanced vehicle technologies. The tool includes the data of both fuel-cycle (fuel production and vehicle operation) and vehicle-cycle (vehicle material recovery and production, vehicle component fabrication, vehicle assembly, and vehicle disposal/recycling). This public domain model is available free of charge for anyone to use.

Wang, Michael↗

DOE OSTI2021

Greenhouse gases, Regulated Emissions, and Energy use in Technologies Model ® (2021 .Net)

To fully evaluate energy and emission impacts of advanced vehicle technologies and new transportation fuels, the fuel cycle from wells to wheels and the vehicle cycle through material recovery and vehicle disposal need to be considered. Sponsored by the U.S. Department of Energy's Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE), Argonne has developed a full life-cycle model called GREET (Greenhouse gases, Regulated Emissions, and Energy use in Technologies). It allows researchers and analysts to evaluate various vehicle and fuel combinations on a full fuel-cycle/vehicle-cycle basis. The first version of GREET was released in 1996. Since then, Argonne has continued to update and expand the model. GREET.Net provides the user with an easy to use and fully graphical toolbox to perform life cycle analysis simulations of alternative transportation fuels and vehicle technologies in a matter of a few clicks. It provides a comprehensive, life-cycle-based approach to compare the energy use and emissions of conventional and advanced vehicle technologies. The tool includes the data of both fuel-cycle (fuel production and vehicle operation) and vehicle-cycle (vehicle material recovery and production, vehicle component fabrication, vehicle assembly, and vehicle disposal/recycling). This public domain model is available free of charge for anyone to use.

Wang, Michael↗

DOE OSTI2022

Greenhouse gases, Regulated Emissions, and Energy use in Technologies Model ® (2022 .Net)

To fully evaluate energy and emission impacts of advanced vehicle technologies and new transportation fuels, the fuel cycle from wells to wheels and the vehicle cycle through material recovery and vehicle disposal need to be considered. Sponsored by the U.S. Department of Energy's Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE), Argonne has developed a full life-cycle model called GREET (Greenhouse gases, Regulated Emissions, and Energy use in Technologies). It allows researchers and analysts to evaluate various vehicle and fuel combinations on a full fuel-cycle/vehicle-cycle basis. The first version of GREET was released in 1996. Since then, Argonne has continued to update and expand the model. GREET.Net provides the user with an easy to use and fully graphical toolbox to perform life cycle analysis simulations of alternative transportation fuels and vehicle technologies in a matter of a few clicks. It provides a comprehensive, life-cycle-based approach to compare the energy use and emissions of conventional and advanced vehicle technologies. The tool includes the data of both fuel-cycle (fuel production and vehicle operation) and vehicle-cycle (vehicle material recovery and production, vehicle component fabrication, vehicle assembly, and vehicle disposal/recycling). This public domain model is available free of charge for anyone to use.

Wang, Michael↗

DOE OSTI2023

Greenhouse gases, Regulated Emissions, and Energy use in Technologies Model ® (2023 .Net)

To fully evaluate energy and emission impacts of advanced vehicle technologies and new transportation fuels, the fuel cycle from wells to wheels and the vehicle cycle through material recovery and vehicle disposal need to be considered. Sponsored by the U.S. Department of Energy's Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE), Argonne has developed a full life-cycle model called GREET (Greenhouse gases, Regulated Emissions, and Energy use in Technologies). It allows researchers and analysts to evaluate various vehicle and fuel combinations on a full fuel-cycle/vehicle-cycle basis. The first version of GREET was released in 1996. Since then, Argonne has continued to update and expand the model. GREET.Net provides the user with an easy to use and fully graphical toolbox to perform life cycle analysis simulations of alternative transportation fuels and vehicle technologies in a matter of a few clicks. It provides a comprehensive, life-cycle-based approach to compare the energy use and emissions of conventional and advanced vehicle technologies. The tool includes the data of both fuel-cycle (fuel production and vehicle operation) and vehicle-cycle (vehicle material recovery and production, vehicle component fabrication, vehicle assembly, and vehicle disposal/recycling). This public domain model is available free of charge for anyone to use.

Wang, Michael↗

DOE OSTI2024

Comprehensive Cradle to Grave Life Cycle Analysis of On-Road Vehicles in the United States based on GREET

To properly compare and contrast the environmental performance of one vehicle technology against another, it is necessary to consider their production, operation, and end-of-life fates. Since 1995, Argonne’s GREET® life cycle analysis model (Greenhouse gases, Regulated Emissions, and Energy use in Technologies) has been annually updated to model and refine the latest developments in fuels and materials production, as well as vehicle operational and composition characteristics. Updated cradle-to-grave life cycle analysis results from the model’s latest release are described for a wide variety of fuel and powertrain options for U.S. light-duty and medium/heavy-duty vehicles. Light-duty vehicles include a passenger car, sports utility vehicle (SUV), and pick-up truck, while medium/heavy-duty vehicles include a Class 6 pickup-and-delivery truck, Class 8 day-cab (regional) truck, and Class 8 sleeper-cab (long-haul) truck. Powertrain coverage includes internal combustion (spark ignition and compression ignition) engines, hybrid electric, plug-in hybrid, full battery electric, and fuel cell vehicles powered by conventional and low carbon energy sources. The results offer insights into the current state of these technologies, as well as a projection of the likely environmental implications of future fuel and vehicle advancements through a time-series evaluation of life cycle greenhouse gas emissions.

Kelly, Jarod C.↗

DOE OSTI2020

Microsimulation of Energy and Flow Effects from Optimal Automated Driving in Mixed Traffic

In this paper we study the energy and traffic impact of a proposed Anticipative Cruise Controller in a PTV VISSIM microsimulation environment. We dissect our controller into two parts: 1. the unconnected mode, active when following a human-driven vehicle, and 2. the connected mode, active when following another automated vehicle equipped with connectivity. Probabilistic constraints balance safety considerations with inter-vehicle compactness, and vehicle constraints for acceleration capabilities are expressed through the use of powertrain maps. Emergent highway traffic scenarios are then modeled using time headway distributions from empirical traffic data. To study the impact of automation over a range of demands of free-flow to stop-and-go, we vary vehicle flux from low to high and vary automated vehicle penetration from low to high. When examining all-human driving scenarios, network capacity failed to meet demand in high-volume scenarios, such as rush-hour traffic. We further find that with connected automated vehicles introduced, network capacity was improved to support the high-volume scenarios. Finally, we examine energy efficiencies of the fleet for conventional, electric, and hybrid vehicles. We find that automated vehicles perform at a 10%-20% higher energy efficiency over human drivers when considering conventional powertrains, and find that automated vehicles perform at a 3%-9% higher energy efficiency over human drivers when considering electric and hybrid powertrains. Due to secondary effects of smoothing traffic flow and reducing unnecessary braking, energy benefits also apply to human-driven vehicles that interact with automated ones. Such simulated humans were found to drive up to 10% more energy-efficiently than they did in the baseline all-human scenario.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

DOE OSTI2024

Delivering Clean Air in Denver: Propane Trucks and Infrastructure in Mail Delivery Application

In 2021, Drive Clean Colorado, a Denver-based Clean Cities coalition, initiated the deployment of five Class 6 medium-duty propane autogas delivery trucks into a United States Postal Service (USPS) mail delivery contractor fleet with the goal of providing a proof-of-concept demonstration for mail delivery fleets nationwide. Funded by the U.S. Department of Energy's Office of Energy Efficiency & Renewable Energy, the project, titled "Delivering Clean Air in Denver: Propane Trucks and Infrastructure in Mail Delivery Application," enabled the purchase and deployment of the propane-powered trucks, refueling infrastructure, and supporting analysis by the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL). Key objectives of the analysis included calculating the propane vehicles' emissions reductions, analyzing the costs and operational performance of the propane fleet compared to conventional diesel-powered vehicles, and evaluating the viability of propane as a clean and cost-effective alternative to conventional diesel trucks (AFDC 2023b, 2023c). The primary goal of the project was to demonstrate alternative fuel vehicles in a mail transport application and evaluate the viability of propane as a clean and cost-effective alternative to conventional diesel trucks. This proof-of-concept demonstration is expected to lead to improved understanding of the performance attributes, costs, and operational issues to inform technology adoption decisions, helping to spur market transformation toward lower-emission truck fleets. By reducing the risk of first adoption, potential exists to transform the U.S. Postal Service (USPS) mail delivery system into a lower-carbon national fleet. This technical report details the vehicle duty cycle characterization and fleet cost and performance comparison performed by the National Renewable Energy Laboratory, in addition to estimated emissions reductions for delivery operations.

33 ADVANCED PROPULSION SYSTEMS↗

DOE OSTI2020

Greenhouse gases, Regulated Emissions, and Energy use in Technologies Model ® (2020 Excel)

To fully evaluate energy and emission impacts of advanced vehicle technologies and new transportation fuels, the fuel cycle from wells to wheels and the vehicle cycle through material recovery and vehicle disposal need to be considered. Sponsored by the U.S. Department of Energy's Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE), Argonne has developed a full life-cycle model called GREET (Greenhouse gases, Regulated Emissions, and Energy use in Technologies). It allows researchers and analysts to evaluate various vehicle and fuel combinations on a full fuel-cycle/vehicle-cycle basis. The first version of GREET was released in 1996. Since then, Argonne has continued to update and expand the model. GREET is developed as a multidimensional spreadsheet model in Microsoft Excel. It provides a comprehensive, life-cycle-based approach to compare the energy use and emissions of conventional and advanced vehicle technologies. It includes two sub-models named Fuel-Cycle Model (GREET 1, contains data on fuel cycles and vehicle operations) and Vehicle-Cycle Model (GREET 2, evaluates the energy and emission effects associated with vehicle material recovery and production, vehicle component fabrication, vehicle assembly, and vehicle disposal/recycling). This public domain model is available free of charge for anyone to use.

Wang, Michael↗

DOE OSTI2021

Greenhouse gases, Regulated Emissions, and Energy use in Technologies Model ® (2021 Excel)

To fully evaluate energy and emission impacts of advanced vehicle technologies and new transportation fuels, the fuel cycle from wells to wheels and the vehicle cycle through material recovery and vehicle disposal need to be considered. Sponsored by the U.S. Department of Energy's Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE), Argonne has developed a full life-cycle model called GREET (Greenhouse gases, Regulated Emissions, and Energy use in Technologies). It allows researchers and analysts to evaluate various vehicle and fuel combinations on a full fuel-cycle/vehicle-cycle basis. The first version of GREET was released in 1996. Since then, Argonne has continued to update and expand the model. GREET is developed as a multidimensional spreadsheet model in Microsoft Excel. It provides a comprehensive, life-cycle-based approach to compare the energy use and emissions of conventional and advanced vehicle technologies. It includes two sub-models named Fuel-Cycle Model (GREET 1, contains data on fuel cycles and vehicle operations) and Vehicle-Cycle Model (GREET 2, evaluates the energy and emission effects associated with vehicle material recovery and production, vehicle component fabrication, vehicle assembly, and vehicle disposal/recycling). This public domain model is available free of charge for anyone to use.

Wang, Michael↗

DOE OSTI2022

Greenhouse gases, Regulated Emissions, and Energy use in Technologies Model ® (2022 Excel)

To fully evaluate energy and emission impacts of advanced vehicle technologies and new transportation fuels, the fuel cycle from wells to wheels and the vehicle cycle through material recovery and vehicle disposal need to be considered. Sponsored by the U.S. Department of Energy's Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE), Argonne has developed a full life-cycle model called GREET (Greenhouse gases, Regulated Emissions, and Energy use in Technologies). It allows researchers and analysts to evaluate various vehicle and fuel combinations on a full fuel-cycle/vehicle-cycle basis. The first version of GREET was released in 1996. Since then, Argonne has continued to update and expand the model. GREET is developed as a multidimensional spreadsheet model in Microsoft Excel. It provides a comprehensive, life-cycle-based approach to compare the energy use and emissions of conventional and advanced vehicle technologies. It includes two sub-models named Fuel-Cycle Model (GREET 1, contains data on fuel cycles and vehicle operations) and Vehicle-Cycle Model (GREET 2, evaluates the energy and emission effects associated with vehicle material recovery and production, vehicle component fabrication, vehicle assembly, and vehicle disposal/recycling). This public domain model is available free of charge for anyone to use.

Wang, Michael↗

DOE OSTI2023

Greenhouse gases, Regulated Emissions, and Energy use in Technologies Model ® (2023 Excel)

To fully evaluate energy and emission impacts of advanced vehicle technologies and new transportation fuels, the fuel cycle from wells to wheels and the vehicle cycle through material recovery and vehicle disposal need to be considered. Sponsored by the U.S. Department of Energy's Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE), Argonne has developed a full life-cycle model called GREET (Greenhouse gases, Regulated Emissions, and Energy use in Technologies). It allows researchers and analysts to evaluate various vehicle and fuel combinations on a full fuel-cycle/vehicle-cycle basis. The first version of GREET was released in 1996. Since then, Argonne has continued to update and expand the model. GREET is developed as a multidimensional spreadsheet model in Microsoft Excel. It provides a comprehensive, life-cycle-based approach to compare the energy use and emissions of conventional and advanced vehicle technologies. It includes two sub-models named Fuel-Cycle Model (GREET 1, contains data on fuel cycles and vehicle operations) and Vehicle-Cycle Model (GREET 2, evaluates the energy and emission effects associated with vehicle material recovery and production, vehicle component fabrication, vehicle assembly, and vehicle disposal/recycling). This public domain model is available free of charge for anyone to use.

Wang, Michael↗

DOE OSTI2023

Machine learning models for maintenance cost estimation in delivery trucks using diesel and natural gas fuels

The maintenance costs can represent about 15%–60% of the cost of produced goods depending on the type of goods transported. To comply with stringent emissions regulations, diesel engines are incorporated with complex after-treatment systems that demand increased maintenance. The availability of alternative fuels such as natural gas and propane has fostered the natural gas and propane powertrain systems as well as electrification options for heavy- and medium-duty vehicles. A critical barrier to adopting alternative fuel vehicles has been the lack of knowledge on comparative vehicle maintenance/repair costs with conventional diesel. Moreover, the region of operation, the type of vehicle operation, and seasonal temperature changes also affect the duty cycle which impacts the maintenance and repair costs. This study focuses on estimating the cost-per-mile for heavy-duty vehicles using machine learning models such as random forest, xgboost, neural networks, and a super-learner model. The super-learner model achieved an error as low as 0.0068 $/mile for mean absolute error and 0.0086 $/mile for root mean square error with a coefficient of determination/R-Squared of 97.28%. Specifically, the paper investigates the data collected from the maintenance and repair costs associated with delivery trucks using diesel and natural gas fuels. Since the availability of data is the major constraint, we leveraged the data collected by West Virginia University and the partnership with fleet companies. This allows for additional information related to maintenance costs and fleet-specific maintenance practices of alternative fuel vehicles. This study promotes clean fuel technologies and enables fleet management companies to adopt alternative fuel vehicles in case of similar or lower cost of maintenance compared to diesel vehicles resulting in reduced emissions and total cost of ownership.

Katreddi, Sasanka↗