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All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2021

State-Space Model to Estimate Salmon Escapement Using Multiple Data Sources

Abstract Accurate estimates of salmonids passing Lower Granite Dam on the Snake River, by species and origin, are a critical input to assessing the status and trends of various populations as well as successful management of fisheries in the Snake River basin. Here, we describe a state-space model that estimates such escapement past a dam by using window counts, PIT tag observations, and data from an adult fish trap, accounting for issues such as nighttime passage, fallback and reascension, potential observation error at the window, and uncertainty in the adult trap rate. We tested the approach using a simulation framework that mimicked several levels of observation error, differences between nighttime passage and reascension rates, and the possibility of the adult trap being closed for some period of time. Our results demonstrate that the model produced unbiased estimates across all tested scenarios. We also applied this model to empirical data from Lower Granite Dam to produce estimates of wild, clipped hatchery, and unclipped hatchery spring/summer-run Chinook Salmon Oncorhynchus tshawytscha and steelhead O. mykiss from spawn years 2010–2019.

See, Kevin E. (ORCID:0000000297626442)↗
DOE OSTI2022

Real-Time Highly Resolved Spatial-Temporal Vehicle Energy Consumption Estimation Using Machine Learning and Probe Data

Real-time highly resolved spatial-temporal vehicle energy consumption is a key missing dimension in transportation data. Most roadway link-level vehicle energy consumption data are estimated using average annual daily traffic measures derived from the Highway Performance Monitoring System; however, this method does not reflect day-to-day energy consumption fluctuations. As transportation planners and operators are becoming more environmentally attentive, they need accurate real-time link-level vehicle energy consumption data to assess energy and emissions; to incentivize energy-efficient routing; and to estimate energy impact caused by congestion, major events, and severe weather. This paper presents a computational workflow to automate the estimation of time-resolved vehicle energy consumption for each link in a road network of interest using vehicle probe speed and count data in conjunction with machine learning methods in real time. The real-time pipeline can deliver energy estimates within a couple seconds on query to its interface. The proposed method was evaluated on the transportation network of the metropolitan area of Chattanooga, Tennessee. The volume estimation results were validated with ground truth traffic volume data collected in the field. To demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed method, the energy consumption pipeline was applied to real-world data to quantify road transportation-related energy reduction because of mitigation policies to slow the spread of COVID-19 and to measure energy loss resulting from congestion.

Severino, Joseph↗
DOE OSTI2021

Comparison of NMC estimates with trans-stilbene, EJ-309, and He-3 detection systems

Neutron multiplicity counting (NMC) is a technique for the assay of fissile material. In this work, three detection systems are utilized for active interrogation assay of shells of the Rocky Flats shells (highly enriched uranium, 93% 235U) stacked from 13.25-54.92 kg assemblies. The singles ($R_1$) and doubles ($R_2$) rates are calculated with each system to estimate two sample parameters: $M_L$- the leakage multiplication and F - the sample fission rate. The estimated mass, m, is found by dividing F by a constant activity per unit mass. Since we are interrogating HEU, the α ratio of (α; n) to fission neutrons is taken to be zero. The system of equations to calculate these quantities was originally derived. The Neutron Multiplicity 3 He Array Detector (NOMAD) consists of 15 3 He tubes inside polyethylene and is the traditional, capture-based detection system for NMC. The polyethylene moderates incoming neutrons for thermal capture in individual tubes. The low gamma background, discrete capture signals, and high efficiency of the NOMAD are beneficial for NMC. However, the time to slow down neutrons to thermal energies leads to a system die away time on the scale of microseconds. Comparatively, the Rossi-alpha Measurements – Rapid Organic (n, γ) Discrimination Detector (RAMRODD) and the Organic Scintillator Array (OSCAR) are scatter-based detection systems. RAMRODD consists of 8, 5.08 by 5.08 cm EJ-309 liquid scintillators in 4 pairs, evenly-spaced with 90 degrees separation about the center of each assembly. OSCAR consists of a single array of 12, 5.08 by 5.08 cm trans-stilbene crystals aligned with the center of the assembly. Scatter-based systems detect fast neutrons without any moderation, leading to system die away times on the scale of tens of nanoseconds. This allows much shorter timing gate widths compared to thermal systems, thus increasing counting statistics of true correlated fission events. However, scatter-based systems are susceptible to neutron cross-talk when an incident neutron scatters off one detector and interacts in an adjacent detector, causing two seemingly correlated detection signals. The equations developed adjust for cross-talk to conduct NMC with scatter-based systems.

46 INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND ↗
DOE OSTI2024

Fast, Nondestructive and Precise Biomass Measurements Are Possible Using Lidar-Based Convex Hull and Voxelization Algorithms

Light detection and ranging (lidar) scanning tools are available that can make rapid digital estimations of biomass. Voxelization and convex hull are two algorithms used to calculate the volume of the scanned plant canopy, which is correlated with biomass, often the primary trait of interest. Voxelization splits the scans into regular-sized cubes, or voxels, whereas the convex hull algorithm creates a polygon mesh around the outermost points of the point cloud and calculates the volume within that mesh. In this study, digital estimates of biomass were correlated against hand-harvested biomass for field-grown corn, broom corn, and energy sorghum. Voxelization (r = 0.92) and convex hull (r = 0.95) both correlated well with plant dry biomass. Lidar data were also collected in a large breeding trial with nearly 900 genotypes of energy sorghum. In contrast to the manual harvest studies, digital biomass estimations correlated poorly with yield collected from a forage harvester for both voxel count (r = 0.32) and convex hull volume (r = 0.39). However, further analysis showed that the coefficient of variation (CV, a measure of variability) for harvester-based estimates of biomass was greater than the CV of the voxel and convex-hull-based biomass estimates, indicating that poor correlation was due to harvester imprecision, not digital estimations. Overall, results indicate that the lidar-based digital biomass estimates presented here are comparable or more precise than current approaches.

Environmental Sciences & Ecology↗
DOE OSTI2020

Misclassification of primary liver cancer in the Life Span Study of atomic bomb survivors

Primary liver cancer is difficult to diagnose accurately at death, due to metastases from nearby organs and to concomitant diseases, such as chronic hepatitis and cirrhosis. Trends in diagnostic accuracy could affect radiation risk estimates for incident liver cancer by altering background rates or by impacting risk modification by sex and age. We quantified the potential impact of death‐certificate inaccuracies on radiation risk estimates for liver cancer in the Life Span Study of atomic bomb survivors. True‐positive and false‐negative rates were obtained from a previous study that compared death‐certificate causes of death with those based on pathological review, from 1958 to 1987. We assumed various scenarios for misclassification rates after 1987. We obtained estimated true positives and estimated false negatives by stratified sampling from binomial distributions with probabilities given by the true‐positive and false‐negative rates, respectively. Poisson regression methods were applied to highly stratified person‐year tables of corrected case counts and accrued person years. During the study period (1958–2009), there were 1,885 cases of liver cancer, which included 383 death‐certificate‐only (DCO) cases; 1,283 cases with chronic liver disease as the underlying cause of death; and 150 DCO cases of pancreatic cancer among 105,444 study participants. Across the range of scenarios considered, radiation risk estimates based on corrected case counts were attenuated, on average, by 13–30%. Our results indicated that radiation risk estimates for liver cancer were potentially sensitive to death‐certificate inaccuracies. Additional data are needed to inform misclassification rates in recent years.

French, Benjamin↗
DOE OSTI2025

The Poisson tensor completion non-parametric differential entropy estimator

We introduce the Poisson tensor completion (PTC) estimator, a non-parametric differential entropy estimator. The PTC estimator leverages inter-sample relationships to compute a low-rank Poisson tensor decomposition of the frequency histogram. Our crucial observation is that the histogram bins are an instance of a space partitioning of counts and thus can be identified with a spatial Poisson process. The Poisson tensor decomposition leads to a completion of the intensity measure over all bins—including those containing few to no samples—and leads to our proposed PTC differential entropy estimator. A Poisson tensor decomposition models the underlying distribution of the count data and guarantees non-negative estimated values and so can be safely used directly in entropy estimation. Our estimator is the first tensor-based estimator that exploits the underlying spatial Poisson process related to the histogram explicitly when estimating the probability density with low-rank tensor decompositions for the purpose of tensor completion. Furthermore, we demonstrate that our PTC estimator is a substantial improvement over standard histogram-based estimators for sub-Gaussian probability distributions because of the concentration of norm phenomenon.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2022

Theoretical Evaluation of Metal–Ligand Bonding in Neptunium Compounds in Relation to 237 Np Mössbauer Spectroscopy

The 237 Np Mössbauer isomer shift and quadrupole splitting (QS) are powerful probes for the metal–ligand bonding of neptunium, a 5f-element of vital importance in the nuclear fuel cycle. A large set of Np compounds with different oxidation states (III) to (VII) is studied to investigate, by first-principles calculations, isomer shifts and the QS trends in relation to the Np oxidation state. Natural Bond Orbital analysis reveals that in addition to donation bonding to the 5f shell, participation of the 6d and 7s neptunium shells in covalent (donation) bonding substantially impacts the isomer shifts. The isomer shift cannot be interpreted solely by the 5f shell electron count. The isomer shift for Np(II) compounds is estimated to be in the range of 31–34 mm/s, less positive than for Np(III) compounds. For the QS, density functional calculations fail to reproduce the quadrupole splitting for some Np(VI) ionic solids. A multiconfigurational wave function approach reproduces the observed QS trends. The calculations give a semiquantitative interpretation of the trends for Np oxidation states (V) to (VII). Furthermore, the contrasting QS for standard and “reverse” neptunyl(VI), at the opposite extremes of the observed QS scale, arises predominantly from the different crystal environments.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2026

Energy, power, and infrastructure demands from electrifying airport ground support equipment at United States airports

As the airline industry seeks to reduce costs and transition to clean energy, electric ground support equipment is emerging as a favorable option. The integration of electric ground support equipment into airport operations requires careful planning for vehicle deployment, charging infrastructure, and grid impacts. We develop a flexible, bottom-up modeling framework to assess energy and infrastructure needs across more than 300 U.S. airports. Our analysis estimates site-specific power and energy demand, equipment counts by type, charger requirements, and costs. Here we quantify the magnitude of new electrical loads created by the electrification of airport ground support equipment, finding that peak power demand at the largest airports can reach up to 20 megawatts, with annual electricity consumption approaching 51,000 megawatt-hours. We further show that behind-the-meter battery energy storage systems and solar photovoltaic systems can reduce peak load and lower total system costs by as much as 10 million dollars.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗
DOE OSTI2022

Updated Economic Model for Estimation of GDP Losses in the MACCS Offsite Consequence Analysis Code RDEIM Model Report for MACCS v4.2

This report updates the Regional Disruption Economic Impact Model (RDEIM) GDP-based model described in Bixler et al. (2020) used in the MACCS accident consequence analysis code. MACCS is the U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) used to perform probabilistic health and economic consequence assessments for atmospheric releases of radionuclides. It is also used by international organizations, both reactor owners and regulators. It is intended and most commonly used for hypothetical accidents that could potentially occur in the future rather than to evaluate past accidents or to provide emergency response during an ongoing accident. It is designed to support probabilistic risk and consequence analyses and is used by the NRC, U.S. nuclear licensees, the Department of Energy, and international vendors, licensees, and regulators. The update of the RDEIM model in version 4.2 expresses the national recovery calculation explicitly, rather than implicitly as in the previous version. The calculation of the total national GDP losses remains unchanged. However, anticipated gains from recovery are now allocated across all the GDP loss types – direct, indirect, and induced – whereas in version 4.1, all recovery gains were accounted for in the indirect loss type. To achieve this, we’ve introduced new methodology to streamline and simplify the calculation of all types of losses and recovery. In addition, RDEIM includes other kinds of losses, including tangible wealth. This includes loss of tangible assets (e.g., depreciation) and accident expenditures (e.g., decontamination). This document describes the updated RDEIM economic model and provides examples of loss and recovery calculation, results analysis, and presentation. Changes to the tangible cost calculation and accident expenditures are described in section 2.2. The updates to the RDEIM input-output (I-O) model are not expected to affect the final benchmark results Bixler et al. (2020), as the RDEIM calculation for the total national GDP losses remains unchanged. The reader is referred to the MACCS revision history for other cost modelling changes since version 4.0 that may affect the benchmark. RDEIM has its roots in a code developed by Sandia National Laboratories for the Department of Homeland Security to estimate short-term losses from natural and manmade accidents, called the Regional Economic Accounting analysis tool (REAcct). This model was adapted and modified for MACCS. It is based on I-O theory, which is widely used in economic modeling. It accounts for direct losses to a disrupted region affected by an accident, indirect losses to the national economy due to disruption of the supply chain, and induced losses from reduced spending by displaced workers. RDEIM differs from REAcct in in its treatment and estimation of indirect loss multipliers, elimination of double-counting associated with inter-industry trade in the affected area, and that it is intended to be used for extended periods that can occur from a major nuclear reactor accident, such as the one that occurred at the Fukushima Daiichi site in Japan. Most input-output models do not account for economic adaptation and recovery, and in this regard RDEIM differs from its parent, REAcct, because it allows for a user-definable national recovery period. Implementation of a recovery period was one of several recommendations made by an independent peer review panel to ensure that RDEIM is state-of-practice. For this and several other reasons, RDEIM differs from REAcct.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗
DOE OSTI2022

Multi-Fidelity Stochastic Economic Dispatch for Operating Low Carbon Power Grids

Grid operators can address the inherently stochastic nature of renewables by solving a two-stage stochastic programming model that minimizes the cost of dispatch decisions while accounting for the complex grid dynamics. It is common to use a sample average approximation to estimate the expectation of the second stage costs in this model. However, the large sample count needed for numerical accuracy makes effective modeling large-scale electric grids computationally intractable. We introduce a control variate multi-fidelity estimator for the second-stage recourse that enables high quality dispatch decisions in real-time with a reduced computational burden. We obtain a hierarchy of model fidelities by linearizing the AC power flow system representation to DC power flow, and by relaxing transmission and voltage network constraints. We evaluate the performance of our proposed method on a synthetic grid with 73 buses against a deterministic baseline with persistence forecast and a high-fidelity reference. Our analysis shows a computational speed-up of 7.62x with a minimal loss in accuracy. The multi-fidelity method is well suited to fidelity combinations that use a simplified network topology in their lower fidelity model and is an attractive option for applications where accurate grid modeling needed on a limited computational budget.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗
DOE OSTI2026

The Poisson tensor completion parametric estimator

We introduce the Poisson tensor completion (PTC) estimator that exploits inter-sample relationships to compute a low-rank Poisson tensor decomposition of the frequency histogram for samples of a multivariate distribution. Our crucial observation is that the histogram bins are an instance of a space partitioning of counts and thus can be identified with a spatial non-homogeneous Poisson process. The Poisson tensor decomposition leads to a completion of the mean measure over all bins—including those containing few to no samples—and leads to our proposed estimator. A Poisson tensor decomposition models the underlying distribution of the count data and guarantees non-negative estimated values obviating the need for additional constraints to ensure non-negativity. Furthermore, we demonstrate that our PTC estimator is a substantial improvement over standard histogram-based estimators for sub-Gaussian probability distributions because of the concentration of norm phenomenon.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2023

Speckle contrast of interfering fluorescence X-rays

With the development of X-ray free-electron lasers (XFELs), producing pulses of femtosecond durations comparable with the coherence times of X-ray fluorescence, it has become possible to observe intensity–intensity correlations due to the interference of emission from independent atoms. This has been used to compare durations of X-ray pulses and to measure the size of a focused X-ray beam, for example. Here it is shown that it is also possible to observe the interference of fluorescence photons through the measurement of the speckle contrast of angle-resolved fluorescence patterns. Speckle contrast is often used as a measure of the degree of coherence of the incident beam or the fluctuations of the illuminated sample as determined from X-ray diffraction patterns formed by elastic scattering, rather than from fluorescence patterns as addressed here. Commonly used approaches to estimate speckle contrast were found to suffer when applied to XFEL-generated fluorescence patterns due to low photon counts and a significant variation of the excitation pulse energy from shot to shot. A new method to reliably estimate speckle contrast under such conditions, using a weighting scheme, is introduced. The method is demonstrated by comparing the speckle contrast of fluorescence observed with pulses of 3 fs to 15 fs duration.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2023

An empirical method for geometric calibration of a photon counting detector-based cone beam CT system

BACKGROUND: Geometric calibration is essential in developing a reliable computed tomography (CT) system. It involves estimating the geometry under which the angular projections are acquired. Geometric calibration of cone beam CTs employing small area detectors, such as currently available photon counting detectors (PCDs), is challenging when using traditional-based methods due to detectors’ limited areas. OBJECTIVE: This study presented an empirical method for the geometric calibration of small area PCD-based cone beam CT systems. METHODS: Unlike the traditional methods, we developed an iterative optimization procedure to determine geometric parameters using the reconstructed images of small metal ball bearings (BBs) embedded in a custom-built phantom. An objective function incorporating the sphericities and symmetries of the embedded BBs was defined to assess performance of the reconstruction algorithm with the given initial estimated set of geometric parameters. The optimal parameter values were those which minimized the objective function. The TIGRE toolbox was employed for fast tomographic reconstruction. To evaluate the proposed method, computer simulations were carried out using various numbers of spheres placed in various locations. Furthermore, efficacy of the method was experimentally assessed using a custom-made benchtop PCD-based cone beam CT. RESULTS: Computer simulations validated the accuracy and reproducibility of the proposed method. The precise estimation of the geometric parameters of the benchtop revealed high-quality imaging in CT reconstruction of a breast phantom. Within the phantom, the cylindrical holes, fibers, and speck groups were imaged in high fidelity. The CNR analysis further revealed the quantitative improvements of the reconstruction performed with the estimated parameters using the proposed method. CONCLUSION: Apart from the computational cost, we concluded that the method was easy to implement and robust.

Instruments & Instrumentation↗
DOE OSTI2025

Detecting outbreaks using a spatial latent field

In this paper, we present a method for estimating the infection-rate of a disease as a spatial-temporal field. Our data comprises time-series case-counts of symptomatic patients in various areal units of a region. We extend an epidemiological model, originally designed for a single areal unit, to accommodate multiple units. The field estimation is framed within a Bayesian context, utilizing a parameterized Gaussian random field as a spatial prior. We apply an adaptive Markov chain Monte Carlo method to sample the posterior distribution of the model parameters condition on COVID-19 case-count data from three adjacent counties in New Mexico, USA. Our results suggest that the correlation between epidemiological dynamics in neighboring regions helps regularize estimations in areas with high variance (i.e., poor quality) data. Using the calibrated epidemic model, we forecast the infection-rate over each areal unit and develop a simple anomaly detector to signal new epidemic waves. Our findings show that anomaly detector based on estimated infection-rates outperforms a conventional algorithm that relies solely on case-counts.

Safta, Cosmin [Sandia National Laboratories (SNL-C↗
DOE OSTI2024

Raccoon density estimation from camera traps for raccoon rabies management

Abstract Density estimation for unmarked animals is particularly challenging, yet density estimates are often necessary for effective wildlife management. Raccoons ( Procyon lotor ) are the primary terrestrial wildlife reservoir for Lyssavirus rabies within the United States. The raccoon rabies variant (RRVV) is actively managed at landscape scales using oral rabies vaccination (ORV) within the eastern United States. To effectively manage RRVV, it is important to know the density of raccoons to appropriately scale the density of ORV baits distributed on the landscape. We compared methods to estimate raccoon densities from camera‐trap data versus more intensive capture‐mark‐recapture (CMR) estimates across 2 land cover types (upland pine and bottomland hardwood) in the southeastern United States during 2019 and 2020. We evaluated the effect of alternative camera configurations and durations of camera trapping on density estimates and used an N‐mixture model to estimate raccoon densities, including covariates on abundance and detection. We further compared different methods of scaling camera‐based counts, with the maximum number of raccoons seen on any given image within a day best explaining density. Camera‐trap density estimates were moderately correlated with CMR estimates ( r = 0.56). However, densities from camera‐trap data were more reliable when classifying category of density as an index used to inform management (83% correct when compared to CMR estimates), although the densities in our study fell into the 2 lowest density classes only. Using more cameras reduced bias and uncertainty around density estimates; however, if ≤6 camera traps were used at a site, a line transect approach proved less biased than a grid design. Camera trapping should be conducted for at least 3 weeks for more accurate estimates of raccoon population density in our study area (<5% bias). We show that camera‐trap data can be used to assign raccoon densities to management‐relevant density index bins, but more studies are needed to ensure reliability across a greater range of environmental conditions and raccoon densities.

Davis, Amy J.↗
DOE OSTI2021

Evaluation of a Surface Spill Operation to Return Adult Steelhead Overshoots Downstream of McNary Dam

This study, funded by the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers (USACE), was conducted by the Pacific Northwest National Laboratory to evaluate the efficacy of operating one Top Spill Weir (TSW) at McNary Dam outside the normal TSW operation dates for juvenile salmon passage. Of interest is whether the TSW is an effective downstream passage route for adult steelhead overshoots. Overshoots are fish which, having passed upstream at McNary Dam, must pass downstream to return to their natal stream to spawn. This report covers Fall (2019) and Spring (2020) study periods. The study design arranged the available 24 hours of TSW spill per week into weekly blocks with sub-blocks differentiated into day and night operations with TSW discharge periods of 4- and 8-hours duration. Hydroacoustic techniques were used to sample adult fish passage at the TSW and at turbine units 1 and 10. The experimental design contrasted TSW spill periods of differing duration and at different times of the day. The small number of fish detected passing the TSW, and the smaller number of fish detected passing the turbine units, were best suited to an ad hoc, exploratory approach to evaluating the effect of TSW spill. It is worthwhile to note that the operations data obtained for the fall study period had a greater than expected number of gaps and apparent anomalies that we believe were a result of how the data were aggregated. These problems are not particularly problematic for the present study, because the available data still provide a good indication of whether the TSW was operating at each point in time. TSW flows in both fall and spring data sets were able to be cleaned up using the established relationship between forebay elevation and TSW discharge rate. Additional cleanup of operations data would be needed, however, if more quantitative evaluation of dam-wide flow and passage relationships were needed. This study contrasted TSW spill periods of differing duration and at different times of the day. The small number of fish detected passing the TSW, and the smaller number of fish detected passing the turbine units were best suited to an ad hoc, exploratory approach to evaluating the effect of TSW spill. Spring adult steelhead passage numbers estimated using hydroacoustics were notably lower than during the fall study period, and that was consistent with our analysis of PIT tagged fish likely to be in the vicinity during each study period. Detections of fish in BlueView sampling areas upstream of the TSW and powerhouse were not correlated with detections of fish passing hydroacoustic sampling areas, which suggests that fish approaching the face of the dam can move around the forebay before passing. Other fish detected in the forebay in large numbers, such as shad, were able to be filtered out of steelhead passage counts and did not appear to be influencing hydroacoustic passage rate estimates. A pulse of passage at the initial TSW opening was weakly evident, but trends across 4- and 8-hour operational periods did not show a distinct decline in passage over time as TSW operation continued. Our findings do not indicate a reason to choose one 8-hour period over two 4-hour periods, or vice versa. This suggests that the duration of spill periods can be chosen based on operational or other considerations. Passage rates were consistently higher during the daytime TSW discharge periods, relative to nighttime TSW discharge periods. The experimental design of the current study used start times near dawn for day periods and near dusk for night periods.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2026

LandCast Mosaic: Reconstructing Global Population Distributions, 1975-2025

LandCast Mosaic (LCM) provides a global, high-resolution gridded population dataset spanning 1975–2025, representing annual, scenario-consistent estimates of daytime, nighttime, and ambient population distributions. LCM builds on the 2025 LandScan Mosaic (LSM) population data by backcasting to earlier years using historical changes in built-surface area derived from the Global Human Settlement Layer (GHSL) and authoritative population counts from international datasets. The workflow scales 2025 building-informed gridded population estimates according to observed changes in built surface, applies linear interpolation for intermediate years, and normalizes estimates to match administrative- and country-level totals. The resulting dataset offers consistent, globally gridded population estimates over fifty years, suitable for temporal analyses of population dynamics, disaster risk modeling, and urban planning applications.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2022

XXL-HSC: An updated catalogue of high-redshift ( z ≥ 3.5) X-ray AGN in the XMM-XXL northern field

X-rays offer a reliable method to identify active galactic nuclei (AGNs). However, in the high-redshift Universe, X-ray AGNs are poorly sampled due to their relatively low space density and the small areas covered by X-ray surveys. In addition to wide-area X-ray surveys, it is important to have deep optical data in order to locate the optical counterparts and determine their redshifts. Here, in this work, we built a high-redshift (z ≥ 3.5) X-ray-selected AGN sample in the XMM-XXL northern field using the most updated [0.5–2 keV] catalogue along with a plethora of new spectroscopic and multi-wavelength catalogues, including the deep optical Subaru Hyper Suprime-Cam (HSC) data, reaching magnitude limits i ~ 26 mag. We selected all the spectroscopically confirmed AGN and complement this sample with high-redshift candidates that are HSC g- and r-band dropouts. To confirm the dropouts, we derived their photometric redshifts using spectral energy distribution techniques. We obtained a sample of 54 high-z sources (28 with spec-z), the largest in this field so far (almost three times larger than in previous studies), and we estimated the possible contamination and completeness. We calculated the number counts (log N-log S) in different redshift bins and compared our results with previous studies and models. We provide the strongest high-redshift AGN constraints yet at bright fluxes (f 0.5 – 2 keV > 10 –15 erg s –1 cm –2 ). The samples of z ≥ 3.5, z ≥ 4, and z ≥ 5 are in agreement with an exponential decline model similar to that witnessed at optical wavelengths. Our work emphasises the importance of using wide-area X-ray surveys with deep optical data to uncover high-redshift AGNs.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗