Search NASA⌕ Search

SEARCH · Search NASA

Results for “data and proxy modeling”

Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

Quote a phrase for an exact phrase match. Source license links do not imply unrestricted reuse.

At least 91 records · Page 5
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2024

Fluctuations and correlations of baryonic chiral partners

The exploration of critical phenomena in phase transitions of strongly interacting matter governed by quantum chromodynamics (QCD) is one of the goals of present ultrarelativistic heavy-ion collision experiments at BNL and CERN. The key research direction is to locate the putative critical point on the phase diagram of QCD linked to the chiral symmetry restoration at finite temperature and/or density. One of the main theoretical tools used for this purpose is the fluctuations of conserved charges, such as the net-baryon number. However, due to experimental limitations, analyses of heavy-ion collision data suffer from a very doubtful basing of the net-proton number being a proxy for the total net-baryon number fluctuations. In this work, we use the parity doublet model to investigate the fluctuations of the net-baryon number density in hot and dense hadronic matter. The model accounts for chiral criticality within the mean-field approximation. We focus on the qualitative properties and systematics of the first- and second-order susceptibility of the net-baryon number density, and their ratios for nucleons of positive and negative parity, as well as their correlator. We show that the fluctuations of the positive-parity nucleon do not necessarily reflect the fluctuations of the total net-baryon number density at the phase boundary of the chiral phase transition. We also investigate the nontrivial structure of the correlator. Furthermore, we discuss and quantify the differences between the fluctuations of the net-baryon number density in the vicinity of the chiral and liquid-gas phase transition in nuclear matter. We indicate a possible relevance of our results with the interpretation of the experimental data on net-proton number fluctuations in heavy-ion collisions. Published by the American Physical Society 2024

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗
DOE OSTI2021

From noise to information: The transfer function formalism for uncertainty quantification in reconstructing the nuclear density

The neutron distribution of neutron-rich nuclei provides critical information on the structure of finite nuclei and neutron stars. Parity violating experiments—such as PREX and CREX—provide a clean and largely model-independent determination of neutron densities. Such experiments, however, are challenging and expensive, which is why sound statistical arguments are required to maximize the information gained. We introduce a new framework, the “transfer function formalism,” aimed at uncertainty quantification, model selection, and experimental design in the context of neutron densities. The transfer functions (TFs) are built analytically by expressing the linear response of the objective function (e.g., χ2) to small perturbations of the data. Using the TF formalism, we are able to analyze the expected overall uncertainty—quantified in terms of bias and variance—of the mean square radius and interior density of 48 Ca and 208 Pb. Using relativistic mean field models as a proxy for the weak-charge density—and assuming that a total of five measurements could be performed on the weak form factor of 48 Ca and 208 Pb—we identify the optimal models and experimental locations that minimize the uncertainty in the extraction of the radius and interior density. We also explore the use of the TF formalism to understand the influence of prior distributions for the model parameters, as well as the optimization of model hyperparameters not constrained by the data. Here,we establish how the choice of experimental locations and the model that is used can have a significant impact on the final uncertainties of the extracted quantities of interest. For challenging experiments such as CREX and PREX, a proper quantification of such uncertainties is critical. We have demonstrated how the TF formalism provides several advantages for this type of analysis.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2025

Recrystallization driven softening and heating rate dependencies of FeCrAl nuclear fuel cladding during accident transients

A refined understanding of FeCrAl cladding behavior during rapid transients is critical for its potential deployment in light-water reactors. Current assessments focus on transient burst testing metrics such as balloon geometry, burst temperature, and hoop stress, often used as proxies for simpler conventional tensile properties. However, directly correlating isothermal tensile and creep data with accident transient scenarios remains a challenge, although it is essential for high fidelity model development. Recent modeling based on tensile tests up to 800 °C, conducted with both immediate loading and a 10-minute soak, showed that immediate loading better predicts experimental burst temperatures, indicating a thermal softening effect. Building upon this observation, the current study connects transient performance, microstructural evolution, and high-temperature tensile properties by leveraging results from C26M claddings burst tests performed at heating rates of 1–50 °C/s and hoop stresses from 25 to 100 MPa. At 25 MPa, rupture temperatures varied by only 6 °C, but at 100 MPa, the difference reached 116 °C, with faster heating yielding higher burst temperatures. Microstructural analysis identified recrystallization as the primary cause of heating rate-dependent softening, eliminating prior cold-working. In-situ thermomechanical data linked ballooning onset to localized instabilities, similar to ultimate tensile strength behavior in conventional tensile tests. High heating rates correlated with immediate loading tensile data, while lower rates matched soaked data. Furthermore, by linking burst performance to microstructural evolution and tensile properties, this work provides a foundation for more accurate modeling of FeCrAl claddings and potentially other Fe-based materials under accident conditions.

11 - NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗
DOE OSTI2024

Estimates of Southern Hemispheric Gravity Wave Momentum Fluxes across Observations, Reanalyses, and Kilometer-Scale Numerical Weather Prediction Model

Abstract Gravity waves (GWs) are among the key drivers of the meridional overturning circulation in the mesosphere and upper stratosphere. Their representation in climate models suffers from insufficient resolution and limited observational constraints on their parameterizations. This obscures assessments of middle atmospheric circulation changes in a changing climate. This study presents a comprehensive analysis of stratospheric GW activity above and downstream of the Andes from 1 to 15 August 2019, with special focus on GW representation ranging from an unprecedented kilometer-scale global forecast model (1.4 km ECMWF IFS), ground-based Rayleigh lidar (CORAL) observations, modern reanalysis (ERA5), to a coarse-resolution climate model (EMAC). Resolved vertical flux of zonal GW momentum (GWMF) is found to be stronger by a factor of at least 2–2.5 in IFS compared to ERA5. Compared to resolved GWMF in IFS, parameterizations in ERA5 and EMAC continue to inaccurately generate excessive GWMF poleward of 60°S, yielding prominent differences between resolved and parameterized GWMFs. A like-to-like validation of GW profiles in IFS and ERA5 reveals similar wave structures. Still, even at ∼1 km resolution, the resolved waves in IFS are weaker than those observed by lidar. Further, GWMF estimates across datasets reveal that temperature-based proxies, based on midfrequency approximations for linear GWs, overestimate GWMF due to simplifications and uncertainties in GW wavelength estimation from data. Overall, the analysis provides GWMF benchmarks for parameterization validation and calls for three-dimensional GW parameterizations, better upper-boundary treatment, and vertical resolution increases commensurate with increases in horizontal resolution in models, for a more realistic GW analysis. Significance Statement Gravity wave–induced momentum forcing forms a key component of the middle atmospheric circulation. However, complete knowledge of gravity waves, their atmospheric effects, and their long-term trends are obscured due to limited global observations, and the inability of current climate models to fully resolve them. This study combines a kilometer-scale forecast model, modern reanalysis, and a coarse-resolution climate model to first compare the resolved and parameterized momentum fluxes by gravity waves generated over the Andes, and then evaluate the fluxes using a state-of-the-art ground-based Rayleigh lidar. Our analysis reveals shortcomings in current model parameterizations of gravity waves in the middle atmosphere and highlights the sensitivity of the estimated flux to the formulation used.

Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences↗
DOE OSTI2023

Model Inputs, Outputs, and Scripts associated with: “Combined effects of stream hydrology and land use on basin-scale hyporheic zone denitrification in the Columbia River Basin”

This data package is associated with the publication “Combined effects of stream hydrology and land use on basin‐scale hyporheic zone denitrification in the Columbia River Basin”, published in Water Resource Research (Son et al.2022) available at https://doi.org/10.1029/2021WR031131. This data package includes the key model inputs/outputs of the river corridor model for the Columbia River Basin (CRB) and the model source codes used in the manuscript. The model is a carbon-nitrogen-coupled river corridor model (RCM), and the model is used to quantify hyporheic zone (HZ) denitrification at the NHDPLUS stream reach scales. The RCM used in this study combines empirical substrate models derived from observations and three microbially driven reactions, including two-step denitrification and aerobic respiration, are considered within the HZ. The key input data of the model are exchange flux, residence time, and stream solute (dissolved organic carbon (DOC), dissolved oxygen (DO), and nitrate concentrations). These inputs are constant over time and represent long-term averaged values. This study uses the RCM to explore the spatial patterns of HZ denitrification across reaches with different sizes and land use in the CRB. Our main objective is to use the RCM as a virtual reality model, and the machine-learning models as surrogates that encapsulate the complexities of the physics-based model while identifying the importance of different variables that are not evident in the model conceptualization. We do not include a direct comparison of the modeled HZ denitrification and measurements; however, the RCM can capture the overall spatial patterns of the HZ denitrification because the model inputs and its reaction networks are based on well-established theory and a physical-based model. The combination of the model-based predictions and a machine-learning approach (e.g., random forest) is used to improve our understanding of what variables of the model are associated with spatial patterns of the modeled denitrification across reaches with different sizes and land uses, and to develop a proxy model using measurable variables to reproduce the simulated patterns.This dataset contains five folders: (1) model_inputs, (2) model_outputs, (3) Rscripts, (4) figures, and (5) model_codes. It also contains a readme, file level metadata (FLMD), and data dictionary (dd). Please see the FLMD for a list of all the files contained in this data package and descriptions for each. The model_inputs folder contains the model inputs used to drive the model simulations. The model_outputs folder contains key model output files from the river corridor model. The Rscripts folder contains the Rscripts for pre- and post- processing model results. The figures folder contains the raw figures associated with the manuscript. The model_codes folder includes key model source codes/input files. All files are .jpg, .jpeg, .out, .e, .od, .dat, .sub, .F90, .0, .R, .sbx, .cpg, .sbn, .shx, .shp, .dbf, .prj, .tfw, .tif, .xml, .pdf, or .csv.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

Multi-site assessment of the potential of fine resolution red-edge vegetation indices for estimating gross primary production

Gross primary production (GPP) models driven by fine resolution remote sensing data characterize the spatial and temporal heterogeneities in plant photosynthesis, which is largely dependent on biome-specific maximum photosynthetic capacity. The red-edge reflectance, sensitive to leaf chlorophyll content, is a good proxy of maximum photosynthetic capacity. More importantly, studies show that the red-edge reflectance-related chlorophyll content index (CIr) multiplied by the incident photosynthetic active radiation (PAR in ) strongly correlates to GPP estimated at carbon flux towers (GPP flux ). Yet, to the best of our knowledge, there is no systematic study investigating the general relationship between fine spatial resolution CIr and GPP among biomes and the relationship between CIr and maximum photosynthetic capacity in GPP models. To provide an overview on incorporating space-borne CIr into a GPP model, we applied fine resolution Sentinel-2-derived CIr and GPP flux over 57 flux sites representative of 10 biomes. We investigated the relationship between CIr and GPP flux , and the spatio-temporal relationship between CIr and ecosystem maximum photosynthetic capacity indicated by the potential ecosystem light use efficiency (LUE pot ). We also evaluated the relationship between other five vegetation indices (VIs) and GPP flux . Results showed that the CIr multiplied by PARin has a higher agreement (R 2 > 0.5) with GPP than other VIs. A universal relationship exists between the CIr multiplied by PARin and GPP, except for forest biomes. The CIr also strongly (R 2 > 0.5) relates to the LUE pot during the peak of the growing season. The CIr has a low spatial variance (CV = 0.25) among biomes, highlighting that CIr can be a proxy of maximum photosynthetic capacity in GPP models that do not require biome-dependent coefficients. This study provides insight for incorporating CIr into GPP models and better quantifying global terrestrial photosynthesis.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

Jet-associated deuteron production in pp collisions at $\sqrt{s}$ =13 TeV

Deuteron production in high-energy collisions is sensitive to the space–time evolution of the collision system, and is typically described by a coalescence mechanism. For the first time, we present results on jet-associated deuteron production in pp collisions at $\sqrt{s}$ =13 TeV, providing an opportunity to test the established picture for deuteron production in events with a hard scattering. Using a trigger particle with high transverse-momentum (p T > GeV/c) as a proxy for the presence of a jet at midrapidity, we observe a measurable population of deuterons being produced around the jet proxy. The associated deuteron yield measured in a narrow angular range around the trigger particle differs by 2.4–4.8 standard deviations from the uncorrelated background. The data are described by PYTHIA model calculations featuring baryon coalescence.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗
DOE OSTI2022

Confronting the water potential information gap

Water potential directly controls the function of leaves, roots and microbes, and gradients in water potential drive water flows throughout the soil–plant–atmosphere continuum. Notwithstanding its clear relevance for many ecosystem processes, soil water potential is rarely measured in situ, and plant water potential observations are generally discrete, sparse, and not yet aggregated into accessible databases. These gaps limit our conceptual understanding of biophysical responses to moisture stress and inject large uncertainty into hydrologic and land-surface models. Here, we outline the conceptual and predictive gains that could be made with more continuous and discoverable observations of water potential in soils and plants. We discuss improvements to sensor technologies that facilitate in situ characterization of water potential, as well as strategies for building new networks that aggregate water potential data across sites. Here, we end by highlighting novel opportunities for linking more representative site-level observations of water potential to remotely sensed proxies. Together, these considerations offer a road map for clearer links between ecohydrological processes and the water potential gradients that have the ‘potential’ to substantially reduce conceptual and modelling uncertainties.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

CHARGED-CURRENT DOUBLE-DIFFERENTIAL CROSS SECTION MEASUREMENT OF ELECTRON NEUTRINOS IN LOW RECOIL REGION ON HYDROCARBON AT ∼7 GEV

Measuring neutrino mixing angles, especially the CP violation phase and mass hierarchy, is one of the priorities of the neutrino community and long baseline neutrino oscillation programs, such as T2K and NOvA, provided the most precise measurements to date. One of the dominating uncertainties of the measurements is the neutrino interaction model due to the difficulty of modeling the nuclear effects from first principles. As a result, neutrino scattering experiments such as MINERvA were conducted to provide data as input to reduce this uncertainty. This thesis presents a charged-current double-differential cross section measurement of electron neutrinos using the MINERvA detector in terms of available energy (a proxy of energy transfer), three-momentum transfer, and/or transverse momentum of the final state electron. This measurement focuses on the transition region between quasi-elastic and resonance processes, where the multi-nucleon knockout process dominates. The result is compared to a modified GENIE model and similar measurements using muon neutrino samples. In addition, this measurement reproduces the photon-like excess seen by previous MINERvA electron neutrino measurements.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗
DOE OSTI2023

Learning perturbation-inducible cell states from observability analysis of transcriptome dynamics

Abstract A major challenge in biotechnology and biomanufacturing is the identification of a set of biomarkers for perturbations and metabolites of interest. Here, we develop a data-driven, transcriptome-wide approach to rank perturbation-inducible genes from time-series RNA sequencing data for the discovery of analyte-responsive promoters. This provides a set of biomarkers that act as a proxy for the transcriptional state referred to as cell state. We construct low-dimensional models of gene expression dynamics and rank genes by their ability to capture the perturbation-specific cell state using a novel observability analysis. Using this ranking, we extract 15 analyte-responsive promoters for the organophosphate malathion in the underutilized host organism Pseudomonas fluorescens SBW25. We develop synthetic genetic reporters from each analyte-responsive promoter and characterize their response to malathion. Furthermore, we enhance malathion reporting through the aggregation of the response of individual reporters with a synthetic consortium approach, and we exemplify the library’s ability to be useful outside the lab by detecting malathion in the environment. The engineered host cell, a living malathion sensor, can be optimized for use in environmental diagnostics while the developed machine learning tool can be applied to discover perturbation-inducible gene expression systems in the compendium of host organisms.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

Development of lean, efficient, and fast physics-framed deep-learning-based proxy models for subsurface carbon storage

In this work, we present deep-learning-based surrogate models for CCUS developed with four different algorithms and a physics-framed two-phase flow problem involving displacement of water by CO 2 . The deep-learning models were trained using 3D datasets describing the pressure plume, CO 2 saturation plume, and water extraction rate generated by numerical simulation. The hyperparameters defining the architecture of the neural networks were optimized to determine the slimmest network size and training parameters that give the most efficient performance at the least training cost. To develop a robust model that closely mimics the governing physical laws, the discretized form of the two-phase fluid transport equation was used to formulate the supervised deep-learning task. The algorithms investigated in this study predicted the data to above 95% accuracy, with the multi-layer perceptron model demonstrating the best performance by balancing training speed, prediction time, and prediction accuracy with lean network capacity. Furthermore, the surrogate models simultaneously predict reservoir pressure and CO 2 saturation in every grid block, including the surface well extraction rate and bottomhole pressure, at all simulation times for a given static model realization in just a few seconds on a standard desktop computer. A key outcome of this study is that limits can be placed on network design parameters to avoid over designing neural networks, with associated efficiencies in training and prediction times. This is very useful because large volumes of data may be generated in CCUS projects and over-design of neural network architectures imposes penalties that are antithetical to the goal of near-real time forecasting.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

Pantropical Indo-Atlantic temperature gradient modulates multi-decadal AMOC variability in models and observations

Abstract Interconnections between ocean basins are recognized as an important driver of climate variability. Recent modeling evidence suggests that the North Atlantic climate can respond to persistent warming of the tropical Indian Ocean sea surface temperature (SST) relative to the rest of the tropics (rTIO). Here, we use observational data to demonstrate that multi-decadal changes in pantropical ocean temperature gradients lead to variations of an SST-based proxy of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC). The largest contribution to this temperature gradient-AMOCconnection comes from gradients between the Indian and Atlantic Oceans. TherTIOindex yields the strongest connection of this tropical temperature gradient to theAMOC. Focusing on the internally generated signal in three observational products reveals that an SST-basedAMOCproxy index has closely followed low-frequency changes ofrTIOtemperature with about 26-year lag since 1870. Analyzing the pre-industrial control simulations of 44 CMIP6 climate models shows that theAMOCproxy index lags simulated mid-latitudeAMOCvariations by 4 ± 4 years. These model simulations reveal the mechanism connectingAMOCvariations to pantropical ocean temperature gradients at a 27 ± 2 years lag, matching the observed time lag in 28 out of the 44 analyzed models. rTIO temperature changes affect the North Atlantic climate through atmospheric planetary waves, impacting temperature and salinity in the subpolar North Atlantic, which modifies deep convection and ultimately the AMOC. Through this mechanism, observed internalrTIOvariations can serve as a multi-decadal precursor ofAMOCchanges with important implications forAMOCdynamics and predictability.

Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences↗
DOE OSTI2024

Interpreting strain tensor data to characterize and monitor reservoirs for CO2 storage and other applications

Recent advances in instrumentation have made it feasible to measure the transient strain tensor caused by small changes in fluid volume or pressure in the subsurface and this has opened the door to new opportunities for characterization and monitoring. We have deployed strainmeters and then conducted injection well tests in an underlying reservoir at 530m depth. The resulting data indicated that the horizontal strain at shallow strainmeters (30 to 40m depth) was tensile and the vertical strain was compressive. The radial strain was less than the horizontal strain, and the strain rates decreased from 100 nanostrain/day to roughly 10 n/d over a few days. The signal at two strainmeters at shallow depth were consistent, although the magnitude of the horizontal strains were different reflecting the different radial directions from the well. The signal at a deep strainmeter deployed at reservoir depth was much different, with tensile vertical strains and compressive horizontal strains. These data can be interpreted by inverting poroelastic forward models developed using numerical and analytical methods. The average horizontal strain in the caprock resembles the transient pressure in the underlying reservoir and classic type-curve methods from transient well testing can be used for preliminary interpretations of strain data. We have developed closed-form analytical solutions to a pressurized poroelastic inclusion and inhomogeneity in a half-space. This model is fast and can be inverted to estimate reservoir stiffness and geometry. Numerical models developed using finite element methods allow more details of the subsurface to be included in the inversion, but they require much longer run times and this makes inversion cumbersome using standard methods. We have developed an inversion approach that uses a proxy model created using machine learning to do most of the forward calculations. The proxy model is periodically updated and refined using the finite element model to ensure accuracy. This approach significantly reduces the computational requirements and makes it feasible to use Bayesian inversion with large numerical models. We have shown that the strain tensor in the caprock is sensitive to pressure in the reservoir, boundaries in the reservoir, and pressure in the caprock caused by leaks. These results indicate that coupling strain tensor data with inversion has the potential to help evaluate reservoirs during initial characterization, and to monitor them during the CO2 injection and storage process.

Murdoch, Larry↗
DOE OSTI2021

Heat transport in liquid water from first-principles and deep neural network simulations

In this work, we compute the thermal conductivity of water within linear response theory from equilibrium molecular dynamics simulations, by adopting two different approaches. In one, the potential energy surface (PES) is derived on the fly from the electronic ground state of density functional theory (DFT) and the corresponding analytical expression is used for the energy flux. In the other, the PES is represented by a deep neural network (DNN) trained on DFT data, whereby the PES has an explicit local decomposition and the energy flux takes a particularly simple expression. By virtue of a gauge invariance principle, established by Marcolongo, Umari, and Baroni, the two approaches should be equivalent if the PES were reproduced accurately by the DNN model. We test this hypothesis by calculating the thermal conductivity, at the GGA (PBE) level of theory, using the direct formulation and its DNN proxy, finding that both approaches yield the same conductivity, in excess of the experimental value by approximately 60%. Besides being numerically much more efficient than its direct DFT counterpart, the DNN scheme has the advantage of being easily applicable to more sophisticated DFT approximations, such as meta-GGA and hybrid functionals, for which it would be hard to derive analytically the expression of the energy flux. We find in this way that a DNN model, trained on meta-GGA (SCAN) data, reduces the deviation from experiment of the predicted thermal conductivity by about 50%, leaving the question open as to whether the residual error is due to deficiencies of the functional, to a neglect of nuclear quantum effects in the atomic dynamics, or, likely, to a combination of the two.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2021

Isotopic signatures as tools to reconstruct the primordial architecture of the Solar System

The significant reorganization of the early Solar System due to giant planet migration has hampered our understanding of where planetary bodies formed. Previously employed proxies for reconstructing the primordial planetary architecture, such as water content or oxidation state, are complicated by post-accretionary processes. Furthermore we investigate basaltic achondrites for their nucleosynthetic isotope signatures in the elements neodymium (Nd) and zirconium (Zr) and show that they are—similar to previously investigated chondritic meteorites—characterized by a relative deficit in isotopes produced by the s-process of nucleosynthesis. Importantly, these data are well correlated with nucleosynthetic signatures observed in other elements, demonstrating that s-process matter was heterogeneously distributed throughout the early Solar System. By comparing these isotopic signatures with potential proxies for Solar System reconstruction and computer modeling, we here argue that this isotopic heterogeneity in bulk meteoritic materials is linked to the original heliocentric distance of formation. Such scaling of nucleosynthetic signatures with heliocentric distance could permit reconstruction of the primordial architecture of the Solar System by ‘cosmolocating’ the accretion orbits of meteoritic parent bodies as a function of incorporated s-process matter.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

Proxy Applications for Converged Workloads: DMC LDRD Initiative

Modern scientific applications are complicated and require coordination of several components. Proxy application driven software-hardware co-design plays a vital role in driving innovation among the developments of applications, software infrastructure and hardware architecture. Proxy applications are self-contained and simplified codes that are intended to model the performance-critical computations within applications. Applications executing on modern High Performance Computing (HPC) systems are susceptible to network congestion, insufficient memory bandwidth within and across compute nodes, and inadvertent loss of performance due to bugs and unoptimized programming models. Modern numerical simulations and machine learning models play a critical role in studying physical phenomenon under myriad uncertainties. Such applications often exhibit irregular computation and memory accesses at specific regions of the application code, which can contribute to various performance bottlenecks at scale. To mitigate such issues and prepare the next generation hardware for a variety of computation and data movement contingencies, a well-known practice is to consider "proxy" applications as representative motifs for various classes of scientific applications. While there is disagreement in the HPC community on the mechanisms of construction of the proxy applications, there is a strong consensus on their positive impact in co-design. Proxy Applications for Converged Workloads (PACER) is about facilitating software-hardware co-design through proxy applications with the goal of improving the performance of converged science workflows on heterogeneous systems.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2025

Self-Supervised T-GCN for Detection of Disturbance and Propagation in Power Grid

Urban power systems increasingly rely on dense sensing to monitor grid reliability, yet disturbance labels are scarce and events are rare. We present a self-supervised spatio-temporal method that detects, localizes, and characterizes grid frequency disturbances across urban areas using only unlabeled data. Our approach trains a tiny Temporal Graph Convolutional Network (T-GCN) to forecast per-site frequency residuals (deviation from 60 Hz). The sensor graph is constructed directly from signals using pre-event Pearson correlation with a cross-correlation lag penalty without geocoding. At inference, node-level anomalies are the model's forecast errors; region-level alarms arise from connected components of high-score nodes. We estimate disturbance propagation by computing per-node arrival times (first persistent exceedance), then fit a planar or time-of-arrival model to obtain direction, speed, and an epicenter proxy. With only three real events collected at decisecond resolution across U.S. cities, we evaluate the T-GCN and report time-to-detect, footprint size, and propagation consistency. We further show that short-window embeddings from the T-GCN's hidden states enable few-shot event-vs-background recognition via a simple prototypical classifier. Despite minimal data and no labels, our system yields fast, spatially coherent detection and interpretable propagation maps, offering a practical, lightweight pathway to city-scale grid resilience analytics.

Niu, Haoran [ORNL] (ORCID:0000000155228297)↗
DOE OSTI2022

Declining tropical cyclone frequency under global warming

Assessing the role of anthropogenic warming from temporally inhomogeneous historical data in the presence of large natural variability is difficult and has caused conflicting conclusions on detection and attribution of tropical cyclone (TC) trends. Here, using a reconstructed long-term proxy of annual TC numbers together with high-resolution climate model experiments, we show robust declining trends in the annual number of TCs at global and regional scales during the twentieth century. The Twentieth Century Reanalysis (20CR) dataset is used for reconstruction because, compared with other reanalyses, it assimilates only sea-level pressure fields rather than utilize all available observations in the troposphere, making it less sensitive to temporal inhomogeneities in the observations. It can also capture TC signatures from the pre-satellite era reasonably well. The declining trends found are consistent with the twentieth century weakening of the Hadley and Walker circulations, which make conditions for TC formation less favourable.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗