Search NASA⌕ Search

SEARCH · Search NASA

Results for “data parameterized events”

Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

Quote a phrase for an exact phrase match. Source license links do not imply unrestricted reuse.

At least 91 records · Page 5
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2021

Assimilation of a Coordinated Fleet of Uncrewed Aircraft System Observations in Complex Terrain: EnKF System Design and Preliminary Assessment

Abstract Uncrewed aircraft system (UAS) observations collected during the 2018 Lower Atmospheric Process Studies at Elevation—a Remotely Piloted Aircraft Team Experiment (LAPSE-RATE) field campaign were assimilated into a high-resolution configuration of the Weather Research and Forecasting Model using an ensemble Kalman filter. The benefit of UAS observations was assessed for a terrain-driven (drainage and upvalley) flow event that occurred within Colorado’s San Luis Valley (SLV) using independent observations. The analysis and prediction of the strength, depth, and horizontal extent of drainage flow from the Saguache Canyon and the subsequent transition to upvalley and up-canyon flow were improved relative to that obtained both without data assimilation (benchmark) and when only surface observations were assimilated. Assimilation of UAS observations greatly improved the analyses of vertical variations in temperature, relative humidity, and winds at multiple locations in the northern portion of the SLV, with reductions in both bias and the root-mean-square error of roughly 40% for each variable relative to the benchmark run. Despite these noted improvements, some biases remain that were tied to measurement error and/or the impact of the boundary layer parameterization on vertically spreading the observations, both of which require further exploration. The results presented here highlight how observations obtained with a fleet of profiling UAS improve limited-area, high-resolution analyses and short-term forecasts in complex terrain.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2015

Mesoscopic modeling of DNA denaturation rates: Sequence dependence and experimental comparison

Using rare event simulation techniques, we calculated DNA denaturation rate constants for a range of sequences and temperatures for the Peyrard-Bishop-Dauxois (PBD) model with two different parameter sets. We studied a larger variety of sequences compared to previous studies that only consider DNA homopolymers and DNA sequences containing an equal amount of weak AT- and strong GC-base pairs. Our results show that, contrary to previous findings, an even distribution of the strong GC-base pairs does not always result in the fastest possible denaturation. In addition, we applied an adaptation of the PBD model to study hairpin denaturation for which experimental data are available. This is the first quantitative study in which dynamical results from the mesoscopic PBD model have been compared with experiments. Our results show that present parameterized models, although giving good results regarding thermodynamic properties, overestimate denaturation rates by orders of magnitude. We believe that our dynamical approach is, therefore, an important tool for verifying DNA models and for developing next generation models that have higher predictive power than present ones.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2018

Response of Tropical Terrestrial Gross Primary Production to the Super El Niño Event in 2015

The gross primary production (GPP) in tropical terrestrial ecosystems plays a critical role in the global carbon cycle and climate change. The strong 2015–2016 El Niño event offers a unique opportunity to investigate how GPP in the tropical terrestrial ecosystems responds to climatic forcing. This study uses two GPP products and concurrent climate data to investigate the GPP anomalies and their underlying causes. We find that both GPP products show an enhanced GPP in 2015 for the tropical terrestrial ecosystem as a whole relative to the multiyear mean of 2001–2015, and this enhancement is the net result of GPP increase in tropical forests and decrease in nonforests. We show that the increased GPP in tropical forests during the El Nino event is consistent with increased photosynthesis active radiation as a result of a reduction in clouds, while the decreased GPP in nonforests is consistent with increased water stress as a result of a reduction of precipitation and an increase of temperature. These results reveal the strong coupling of ecosystem and climate that is different in forest and nonforest ecosystems and provide a test case for carbon cycle parameterization and carbon-climate feedback simulation in models.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2019

Eastern North Atlantic (ENA) Aerosol Supplementary Site (S1) Data Analysis Report

We present strategies to identify time periods when local aerosol sources impact the data collected at the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) user facility in the Eastern North Atlantic (ENA). Data from the aerosol observing system (AOS) at the Central Facility and a temporary aerosol Supplementary Site (S1) were evaluated. S1 instrumentation was deployed within 0.75 km of the ENA Central Facility (C1) for approximately one year. Two time periods, one during the summer and one during the winter, were examined in support of the Aerosol and Cloud Experiments in the Eastern North Atlantic (ACE-ENA) intensive operating periods (IOPs) in 2017 and 2018. As the criteria for identifying regionally representative data varies based on the specific needs of the user, we present and discuss different strategies using measured aerosol properties and their associated meteorological parameters to isolate periods in AOS data that were impacted by local aerosol at ENA. We identify high-concentration aerosol events at ENA using submicron number concentrations, size distributions, high-time-resolution measurements, and diurnal profiles. An improved understanding of local aerosol to select the optimal aerosol mask was obtained with an understanding of local meteorology during the different seasons. We developed a mathematical algorithm that employs AOS data to mask high-concentration aerosol events at ENA. We validated the ENA Aerosol Mask with aerosol data from C1 and S1 and associated meteorological data. The Supplementary Site was ideal to understand and constrain local aerosol sources within the region. In its absence, collocated data from the ENA AOS could be used to select appropriate parameters to develop an aerosol mask that would limit over- or underestimating the regional baseline aerosol data. When available, associated metadata, such as airport flight logs and visual identification with AOS cameras should also be used to validate the application of an aerosol mask at a new site. Our results confirm the importance of optimizing an aerosol mask prior its application. In the future, the application of an aerosol mask at ARM observatories and during mobile deployments could be used to increase the data quality of continuous AOS data and to reduce uncertainties when parameterizing regional aerosol processes and impacts on clouds for incorporation in models.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

Characterizing and Mitigating Intraday Variability: Reconstructing Source Structure in Accreting Black Holes with mm-VLBI

The extraordinary physical resolution afforded by the Event Horizon Telescope has opened a window onto the astrophysical phenomena unfolding on horizon scales in two known black holes, M87* and Sgr A*. However, with this leap in resolution has come a new set of practical complications. Sgr A* exhibits intraday variability that violates the assumptions underlying Earth aperture synthesis, limiting traditional image reconstruction methods to short timescales and data sets with very sparse (u, v) coverage. We present a new set of tools to detect and mitigate this variability. We develop a data-driven, model-agnostic procedure to detect and characterize the spatial structure of intraday variability. This method is calibrated against a large set of mock data sets, producing an empirical estimator of the spatial power spectrum of the brightness fluctuations. We present a novel Bayesian noise modeling algorithm that simultaneously reconstructs an average image and statistical measure of the fluctuations about it using a parameterized form for the excess variance in the complex visibilities not otherwise explained by the statistical errors. These methods are validated using a variety of simulated data, including general relativistic magnetohydrodynamic simulations appropriate for Sgr A* and M87*. We find that the reconstructed source structure and variability are robust to changes in the underlying image model. We apply these methods to the 2017 EHT observations of M87*, finding evidence for variability across the EHT observing campaign. The variability mitigation strategies presented are widely applicable to very long baseline interferometry observations of variable sources generally, for which they provide a data-informed averaging procedure and natural characterization of inter-epoch image consistency.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2022

Photosynthesis phenology, as defined by solar-induced chlorophyll fluorescence, is overestimated by vegetation indices in the extratropical Northern Hemisphere

Vegetation phenology is highly sensitive to climate change, although the data and methods used to estimate key phenological states can influence this sensitivity. Because of its direct relation to leaf photosynthetic carbon uptake, remotely sensed solar-induced chlorophyll fluorescence (SIF) can provide new insight assessing changes in vegetation phenology. In this work, we investigated the potential of using a SIF time series product named contiguous SIF (CSIF) to estimate spring, summer, and autumn phenology in the extratropical Northern Hemisphere (>30°N) and compared the results with those based on Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) for the period 2001–2018. Overall, we found similar spatial patterns in phenological states. However, specific dates of key phenological events differed when using CSIF vs. MODIS NDVI data. NDVI data indicated that the growing season started earlier (by 10.1 days on average) and ended later (11.5 days on average) relative to CSIF data. This implies that actual periods for photosynthetic activity are shorter (by 21.6 days on average) than those estimated from vegetation indices more directly related to changes in canopy structure. These large differences between results from NDVI and that from CSIF suggest that vegetation indices such as NDVI seem to overestimate the period for active photosynthesis over the extratropical Northern Hemisphere. Furthermore, while phenology of the early growing season is dominated by temperature for both NDVI and CSIF data, phenology of the late growing season is mainly controlled by temperature for NDVI but by precipitation for CSIF. Our findings were further confirmed by other SIF (GOME-2 SIF) and vegetation index (MODIS EVI) datasets. Phenology modes in Earth system modelling are often parameterized using leaf unfolding and senescence from either station or satellite observations. Our results imply that canopy structure-based parameterization schemes may have overestimated photosynthesis active period, and thus productivity responses. We conclude that SIF data offers a novel and unique approach for assessing phenological change - one that is more directly tied to the carbon cycle and how it is being influenced by climate change.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2015

Climate Induced Spillover and Implications for U.S. Security.

Developing nations incur a greater risk to climate change than the developed world due to poorly managed human/natural resources, unreliable infrastructure and brittle governing/economic institutions. These vulnerabilities often give rise to a climate induced “domino effect” of reduced natural resource production-leading to economic hardship, social unrest, and humanitarian crises. Integral to this cascading set of events is increased human migration, leading to the “spillover” of impacts to adjoining areas with even broader impact on global markets and security. Given the complexity of factors influencing human migration and the resultant spill-over effect, quantitative tools are needed to aid policy analysis. Toward this need, a series of migration models were developed along with a system dynamics model of the spillover effect. The migration decision models were structured according to two interacting paths, one that captured long-term “chronic” impacts related to protracted deteriorating quality of life and a second focused on short-term “acute” impacts of disaster and/or conflict. Chronic migration dynamics were modeled for two different cases; one that looked only at emigration but at a national level for the entire world; and a second that looked at both emigration and immigration but focused on a single nation. Model parameterization for each of the migration models was accomplished through regression analysis using decadal data spanning the period 1960-2010. A similar approach was taken with acute migration dynamics except regression analysis utilized annual data sets limited to a shorter time horizon (2001-2013). The system dynamics spillover model was organized around two broad modules, one simulating the decision dynamics of migration and a second module that treats the changing environmental conditions that influence the migration decision. The environmental module informs the migration decision, endogenously simulating interactions/changes in the economy, labor, population, conflict, water, and food. A regional model focused on Mali in western Africa was used as a test case to demonstrate the efficacy of the model.

Tidwell, Vincent C.↗
DOE OSTI2025

The persistent shadow of the supermassive black hole of M87. II. Model comparisons and theoretical interpretations

The Event Horizon Telescope (EHT) observation of M87∗ in 2018 has revealed a ring with a diameter that is consistent with the 2017 observation. The brightest part of the ring is shifted to the southwest from the southeast. In this paper, we provide theoretical interpretations for the multi-epoch EHT observations for M87∗ by comparing a new general relativistic magnetohydrodynamics model image library with the EHT observations for M87∗ in both 2017 and 2018. The model images include aligned and tilted accretion with parameterized thermal and nonthermal synchrotron emission properties. The 2018 observation again shows that the spin vector of the M87∗ supermassive black hole is pointed away from Earth. A shift of the brightest part of the ring during the multi-epoch observations can naturally be explained by the turbulent nature of black hole accretion, which is supported by the fact that the more turbulent retrograde models can explain the multi-epoch observations better than the prograde models. The EHT data are inconsistent with the tilted models in our model image library. Assuming that the black hole spin axis and its large-scale jet direction are roughly aligned, we expect the brightest part of the ring to be most commonly observed 90 deg clockwise from the forward jet. This prediction can be statistically tested through future observations.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2020

Uncertainty Quantification of Global Net Methane Emissions From Terrestrial Ecosystems Using a Mechanistically Based Biogeochemistry Model

Quantification of methane (CH4) emissions from wetlands and its sinks from uplands is still fraught with large uncertainties. Here, a methane biogeochemistry model was revised, parameterized, and verified for various wetland ecosystems across the globe. The model was then extrapolated to the global scale to quantify the uncertainty induced from four different types of uncertainty sources including parameterization, wetland type distribution, wetland area distribution, and meteorological input. We found that global wetland emissions are 212 ± 62 and 212 ± 32 Tg CH4 year -1 (1Tg = 10 12 g) due to uncertain parameters and wetland type distribution, respectively, during 2000–2012. Using two wetland distribution data sets and three sets of climate data, the model simulations indicated that the global wetland emissions range from 186 to 212 CH 4 year -1 for the same period. The parameters were the most significant uncertainty source. After combining the global methane consumption in the range of -34 to -46 Tg CH 4 year -1 , we estimated that the global net land methane emissions are 149–176 Tg CH 4 year -1 due to uncertain wetland distribution and meteorological input. Spatially, the northeast United States and Amazon were two hotspots of methane emission, while consumption hotspots were in the Eastern United States and eastern China. During 1950–2016, both wetland emissions and upland consumption increased during El Niño events and decreased during La Niña events. This study highlights the need for more in situ methane flux data, more accurate wetland type, and area distribution information to better constrain the model uncertainty.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2016

Influences of emission sources and meteorology on aerosol chemistry in a polluted urban environment: results from DISCOVER-AQ California

Abstract. The San Joaquin Valley (SJV) in California experiences persistent air-quality problems associated with elevated particulate matter (PM) concentrations due to anthropogenic emissions, topography, and meteorological conditions. Thus it is important to unravel the various sources and processes that affect the physicochemical properties of PM in order to better inform pollution abatement strategies and improve parameterizations in air-quality models. During January and February 2013, a ground supersite was installed at the Fresno–Garland California Air Resources Board (CARB) monitoring station, where comprehensive, real-time measurements of PM and trace gases were performed using instruments including an Aerodyne high-resolution time-of-flight aerosol mass spectrometer (HR-ToF-AMS) and an Ionicon proton transfer reaction time-of-flight mass spectrometer (PTR-TOF-MS) as part of the NASA Deriving Information on Surface Conditions from Column and Vertically Resolved Observations Relevant to Air Quality (DISCOVER-AQ) campaign. The average submicron aerosol (PM1) concentration was 31.0 µg m−3 and the total mass was dominated by organic aerosols (OA, 55 %), followed by ammonium nitrate (35 %). High PM pollution events were commonly associated with elevated OA concentrations, mostly from primary sources. Organic aerosols had average atomic oxygen-to-carbon (O / C), hydrogen-to-carbon (H / C), and nitrogen-to-carbon (N / C) ratios of 0.42, 1.70, and 0.017, respectively. Six distinct sources of organic aerosol were identified from positive matrix factorization (PMF) analysis of the AMS data: hydrocarbon-like OA (HOA; 9 % of total OA, O / C = 0.09) associated with local traffic, cooking OA (COA; 18 % of total OA, O / C = 0.19) associated with food cooking activities, two biomass burning OA (BBOA1: 13 % of total OA, O / C = 0.33; BBOA2: 20 % of total OA, O / C = 0.60) most likely associated with residential space heating from wood combustion, and semivolatile oxygenated OA (SV-OOA; 16 % of total OA, O / C = 0.63) and low-volatility oxygenated OA (LV-OOA; 24 % of total OA, O / C = 0.90) formed via chemical reactions in the atmosphere. Large differences in aerosol chemistry at Fresno were observed between the current campaign (winter 2013) and a previous campaign in winter 2010, most notably that PM1 concentrations were nearly 3 times higher in 2013 than in 2010. These variations were attributed to differences in the meteorological conditions, which influenced primary emissions and secondary aerosol formation. In particular, COA and BBOA concentrations were greater in 2013 than 2010, where colder temperatures in 2013 likely resulted in increased biomass burning activities. The influence from a nighttime formed residual layer that mixed down in the morning was found to be much more intense in 2013 than 2010, leading to sharp increases in ground-level concentrations of secondary aerosol species including nitrate, sulfate, and OOA, in the morning between 08:00 and 12:00 PST. This is an indication that nighttime chemical reactions may have played a more important role in 2013. As solar radiation was stronger in 2013 the higher nitrate and OOA concentrations in 2013 could also be partly due to greater photochemical production of secondary aerosol species. The greater solar radiation and larger range in temperature in 2013 also likely led to both SV-OOA and LV-OOA being observed in 2013 whereas only a single OOA factor was identified in 2010.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2017

Final Technical Report for Award SC0008613

Discovering how aerosol particles, present in the atmosphere in sizes of a few nanometers to hundred micrometers, initiate ice crystal formation represents a great challenge. Atmospheric ice nucleation is important because ice crystals alter the radiative properties of clouds and thus climate, and impact precipitation and thus the hydrological cycle. The difficulty in predicting atmospheric ice formation is attributable at least in part, to the diversity of ice nucleation pathways, the physical and chemical complexity of the ice nucleating particles (INPs), and the relatively small numbers of INPs (compared with all other aerosol particles), sometimes less than one in 100000. These factors in turn makes constraining ice nucleation parameterizations for modeling applications challenging. The majority of airborne particles are known to be organic in nature or contain organic biogenic material. The presence of organic material adds to the complexity of the particles and therefore the predictability of ice nucleation events since the organic species can display different phase states, e.g. liquid or solid, in response to temperature and humidity. The award DE-SC0008613 to PI Prof. Daniel Knopf at Stony Brook University, “Relating the Chemical and Physical Properties of Aerosols to the Water Uptake and Ice Nucleation Potential of Particles Collected During the Carbonaceous Aerosols and Radiative Effects Study (CARES)”, allowed examination of laboratory generated aerosol particles and field-collected particles for their propensity to nucleate ice under typical tropospheric conditions and relate ice nucleation to the physicochemical properties of the particles including their morphology and chemical composition. This in turn allowed for development of ice nucleation parameterizations for implementation in cloud models. The award resulted in 10 peer-reviewed publications and more than 20 seminar and conference presentations. We demonstrated that the rate of immersion freezing, when a particle immersed in an aqueous droplet acts as an ice nucleus (IN), can be predicted by knowledge of the IN particle type present and the droplet’s water activity which is equal to ambient relative humidity. Our water activity based immersion freezing model is successful in predicting freezing data including INPs such as mineral dusts, marine biological material, organic species, and surfactant molecules. Its mathematical simplicity makes it an ideal candidate for implementation in cloud and climate models. Furthermore, we could show that this model can reproduce many past laboratory measurements which were generated using a variety of instruments to study immersion freezing. Lastly, we have demonstrated that this model can also be applied to field collected particles. Currently, this novel physical parameterization of immersion freezing is being implemented in a cloud model. We examined the physicochemical properties and the ice nucleation potential of particles collected during CARES applying a novel experimental method that allows identification of the individual INPs within a large population of particles sampled from an ambient environment. Taking advantage of a variety of micro-spectroscopic techniques, we characterized the composition and morphology of IN and non-IN particles present in the airborne population. We developed a new parameterization for quantifying the mixing state of the entire aerosol populations by introducing a mixing state index. We found that the identified INPs belong to the most common particle-type classes observed in the CARES field samples and as such are not special or rare particles. In other words, the INPs can be shown not to be unique in contrast to the common paradigm of being rare and exceptional. Either there are differences between particles acting as IN and particles not acting as IN which are beyond our current detection limit or nucleation occurs randomly on the surface of any one of these compositionally equivalent particles. These results suggest that total particle surface area of the different particle types present in the aerosol population is also a crucial factor when predicting ice nucleation in an air mass. We also observed that ambient organic aerosol particles can initiate ice nucleation and corroborated these findings using laboratory generated organic particles. These experiments demonstrated that information of the organic phase state is important for predicting the ice nucleation pathway and the ability of an organic particle to participate in atmospheric ice crystal formation. This award resulted in substantial new insights in the processes governing immersion freezing, the role of organic aerosol particles in ice cloud formation, and the importance of the ambient aerosol population for prediction of ice nucleation in an air parcel. These findings have significant implications for modeling and field measurement strategies of atmospheric ice nucleation.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2020

How Low Can You Go? Using Synthetic 3D Imagery to Drastically Reduce Real-World Training Data for Object Detection

Deep convolutional neural networks (DCNNs) currently provide state-of-the-art performance on image classification and object detection tasks, and there are many global security mission areas where such models could be extremely useful. Crucially, the success of these models is driven in large part by the widespread availability of high-quality open source data sets such as Image Net, Common Objects in Context (COCO), and KITTI, which contain millions of images with thousands of unique labels. However, global security relevant objects-of-interest can be difficult to obtain: relevant events are low frequency and high consequence; the content of relevant images is sensitive; and adversaries and proliferators seek to obscure their activities. For these cases where exemplar data is hard to come-by, even fine-tuning an existing model with available data can be effectively impossible. Recent work demonstrated that models can be trained using a combination of real-world and synthetic images generated from 3D representations; that such models can exceed the performance of models trained using real-world data alone; and that the generated images need not be perfectly realistic (Tremblay, et al., 2018). However, this approach still required hundreds to thousands of real-world images for training and fine tuning, which for sparse, global security-relevant datasets can be an unrealistic hurdle. In this research, we validate the performance and behavior of DCNN models as we drive the number of real-world images used for training object detection tasks down to a minimal set. We perform multiple experiments to identify the best approach to train DCNNs from an extremely small set of real-world images. In doing so, we: Develop state-of-the-art, parameterized 3D models based on real-world images and sample from their parameters to increase the variance in synthetic image training data; Use machine learning explainability techniques to highlight and correct through targeted training the biases that result from training using completely synthetic images; and Validate our results by comparing the performance of the models trained on synthetic data to one another, and to a control model created by fine-tuning an existing ImageNet-trained model with a limited number (hundreds) of real-world images.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2016

Simulations of Sulfate-Nitrate-Ammonium (SNA) aerosols during the extreme haze events over Northern China in 2014

Extreme haze events have occurred frequently over China in recent years. Although many studies have investigated the formation mechanisms associated with PM2.5 for heavily polluted regions in China based on observational data, adequately predicting peak PM2.5 concentrations is still challenging for regional air quality models. In this study, we evaluate the performance of one configuration of the Weather Research and Forecasting model coupled with chemistry (WRF-Chem) and use the model to investigate the sensitivity of heterogeneous reactions on simulated peak sulfate, nitrate, and ammonium concentrations in the vicinity of Beijing during four extreme haze episodes in October 2014 over the North China Plain. The highest observed PM2.5 concentration of 469 μg m-3 occurred in Beijing. Comparisons with observations show that the model reproduced the temporal variability in PM2.5 with the highest PM2.5 values on polluted days (defined as days in which observed PM2.5 is greater than 75 μg m-3), but predictions of sulfate, nitrate, and ammonium were too low on days with the highest observed concentrations. Observational data indicate that the sulfur/nitric oxidation rates are strongly correlated with relative humidity during periods of peak PM2.5; however, the model failed to reproduce the highest PM2.5 concentrations due to missing heterogeneous reactions. As the parameterizations of those reactions is not well established yet, estimates of SO2-to-H2SO4 and NO2/NO3-to-HNO3 reaction rates that depend on relative humidity were applied which improved the simulation of sulfate, nitrate, and ammonium enhancement on polluted days in terms of both concentrations and partitioning among those species. Sensitivity simulations showed that the extremely high heterogeneous reaction rates and also higher emission rates than those reported in the emission inventory

Chen, Dan↗
DOE OSTI2024

Perspectives on AI Architectures and Codesign for Earth System Predictability

Abstract Recently, the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE), Office of Science, Biological and Environmental Research (BER), and Advanced Scientific Computing Research (ASCR) programs organized and held the Artificial Intelligence for Earth System Predictability (AI4ESP) workshop series. From this workshop, a critical conclusion that the DOE BER and ASCR community came to is the requirement to develop a new paradigm for Earth system predictability focused on enabling artificial intelligence (AI) across the field, laboratory, modeling, and analysis activities, called model experimentation (ModEx). BER’s ModEx is an iterative approach that enables process models to generate hypotheses. The developed hypotheses inform field and laboratory efforts to collect measurement and observation data, which are subsequently used to parameterize, drive, and test model (e.g., process based) predictions. A total of 17 technical sessions were held in this AI4ESP workshop series. This paper discusses the topic of the AI Architectures and Codesign session and associated outcomes. The AI Architectures and Codesign session included two invited talks, two plenary discussion panels, and three breakout rooms that covered specific topics, including 1) DOE high-performance computing (HPC) systems, 2) cloud HPC systems, and 3) edge computing and Internet of Things (IoT). We also provide forward-looking ideas and perspectives on potential research in this codesign area that can be achieved by synergies with the other 16 session topics. These ideas include topics such as 1) reimagining codesign, 2) data acquisition to distribution, 3) heterogeneous HPC solutions for integration of AI/ML and other data analytics like uncertainty quantification with Earth system modeling and simulation, and 4) AI-enabled sensor integration into Earth system measurements and observations. Such perspectives are a distinguishing aspect of this paper. Significance Statement This study aims to provide perspectives on AI architectures and codesign approaches for Earth system predictability. Such visionary perspectives are essential because AI-enabled model-data integration has shown promise in improving predictions associated with climate change, perturbations, and extreme events. Our forward-looking ideas guide what is next in codesign to enhance Earth system models, observations, and theory using state-of-the-art and futuristic computational infrastructure.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2019

Data from: Nitrous oxide emissions during establishment of eight alternative cellulosic bioenergy cropping systems in the North Central United States

Greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions from soils are a key sustainability metric of cropping systems. During crop establishment, disruptive land-use change is known to be a critical, but under reported period, for determining GHG emissions. We measured soil N2O emissions and potential environmental drivers of these fluxes from a three-year establishment-phase bioenergy cropping systems experiment replicated in southcentral Wisconsin (ARL) and southwestern Michigan (KBS). Cropping systems treatments were annual monocultures (continuous corn, corn–soybean–canola rotation), perennial monocultures (switchgrass, miscanthus, and poplar), and perennial polycultures (native grass mixture, early successional community, and restored prairie) all grown using best management practices specific to the system. Cumulative three-year N2O emissions from annuals were 142% higher than from perennials, with fertilized perennials 190% higher than unfertilized perennials. Emissions ranged from 3.1 to 19.1 kg N2O-N ha−1 yr−1 for the annuals with continuous corn > corn–soybean–canola rotation and 1.1 to 6.3 kg N2O-N ha−1 yr−1 for perennials. Nitrous oxide peak fluxes typically were associated with precipitation events that closely followed fertilization. Bayesian modeling of N2O fluxes based on measured environmental factors explained 33% of variability across all systems. Models trained on single systems performed well in most monocultures (e.g., R2 = 0.52 for poplar) but notably worse in polycultures (e.g., R2 = 0.17 for early successional, R2 = 0.06 for restored prairie), indicating that simulation models that include N2O emissions should be parameterized specific to particular plant communities. Our results indicate that perennial bioenergy crops in their establishment phase emit less N2O than annual crops, especially when not fertilized. These findings should be considered further alongside yield and other metrics contributing to important ecosystem services.

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗
DOE OSTI2018

100 Years of Research on Mesoscale Convective Systems

Abstract When cumulonimbus clouds aggregate, developing into a single entity with precipitation covering a horizontal scale of hundreds of kilometers, they are called mesoscale convective systems (MCSs). They account for much of Earth’s precipitation, generate severe weather events and flooding, produce prodigious cirriform anvil clouds, and affect the evolution of the larger-scale circulation. Understanding the inner workings of MCSs has resulted from developments in observational technology and modeling. Time–space conversion of ordinary surface and upper-air observations provided early insight into MCSs, but deeper understanding has followed field campaigns using increasingly sophisticated radars, better aircraft instrumentation, and an ever-widening range of satellite instruments, especially satellite-borne radars. High-resolution modeling and theoretical insights have shown that aggregated cumulonimbus clouds induce a mesoscale circulation consisting of air overturning on a scale larger than the scale of individual convective up- and downdrafts. These layers can be kilometers deep and decoupled from the boundary layer in elevated MCSs. Cooling in the lower troposphere and heating aloft characterize the stratiform regions of MCSs. As a result, long-lived MCSs with large stratiform regions have a top-heavy heating profile that generates potential vorticity in midlevels, thus influencing the larger-scale circulation within which the MCSs occur. Global satellite data show MCSs varying in structure, depending on the prevailing large-scale circulation and topography. These patterns are likely to change with global warming. In addition, environmental pollution affects MCS structure and dynamics subtly. Feedbacks of MCSs therefore need to be included or parameterized in climate models.

Houze, Jr., Robert A.↗
DOE OSTI2019

Regionally refined test bed in E3SM atmosphere model version 1 (EAMv1) and applications for high-resolution modelling

Climate simulation with more accurate process-level representation at finer resolutions is a pressing necessity in order to provide actionable information to policy-makers regarding extreme events in a changing climate. Computational limitation is a major obstacle for building, and running high-resolution (HR, here 0.25° average grid spacing at the equator) models (HRM). A more affordable path to HRM is to use a global regionally refined model (RRM), which only simulates a portion of the globe at HR while the remaining is at low-resolution (LR, 1°). In this study, we compare the Energy Exascale Earth System Model (E3SM) atmosphere model version 1 (EAMv1) RRM with the HR mesh over the contiguous United States (CONUS) to its corresponding globally uniform LR and HR configurations, as well as to observations and reanalysis data. The RRM has a significantly reduced computational cost (roughly proportional to the HR mesh size) relative to the globally uniform HRM. Over the CONUS, we evaluate the simulation of important dynamical and physical quantities as well as various precipitation measures. Differences between the RRM and HRM over the HR region are predominantly small, demonstrating that the RRM reproduces both well- and poorly simulated behaviours of the HRM over the CONUS. Further analysis based on RRM simulations with the LR vs. HR model parameters reveals that RRM performance is greatly influenced by the different parameter choices used in the LR and HR EAMv1. This is a result of the poor scale-aware behaviour of physical parameterizations, especially for variables influencing sub-grid scale physical processes. RRM can serve as a useful framework to test physics schemes across a range of scales, leading to improved consistency in future E3SM versions. Applying nudging-to-observations techniques within the RRM framework also demonstrates significant advantages over a free-running configuration for use as a testbed, and as such represents an efficient and more robust physics testbed capability. Our conclusions provide additional confirmatory evidence that the RRM is an efficient and effective approach for HRM development and hydrologic research.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

A hydrogeophysical framework to assess infiltration during a simulated ecosystem-scale flooding experiment

This study presents a framework to quantify changes in soil saturation in response to flooding caused by extreme hydrologic perturbation on coastal ecosystems at the interfaces and transition between terrestrial and aquatic systems. Subsurface heterogeneity limits the use of in situ measurements to quantify subsurface flow during flooding due to the spatial discontinuity in the measured data. While geophysical methods, including time-lapse electrical resistivity imaging (ERI), are increasingly used to monitor soil hydrological processes, their abilities to parameterize flow models have been underutilized. This study combines background ERI, ground penetrating radar (GPR), time-lapse ERI, soil characterization, and a numerical flow model developed using an Advanced Terrestrial Simulator (ATS) code to quantify the infiltration pathway and describe the hydrological dynamics during a simulated flooding experiment. We assessed the use of two conceptual models developed using [1] ERI and GPR data that described the stratigraphic distribution, and time-lapse ERI that mapped permeability contrast, and [2] information from a national soil database for capturing changes in saturation. Combining the ERI and GPR results with soil core data revealed the stratigraphic heterogeneity at the site with a silty clay layer from 1 to 2 m between an overlying loamy topsoil and an underlying saturated silty sand. This silty clay layer could restrict deep infiltration. The time-lapse ERI showed up to a 35% decrease in resistivity, which correlated with soil moisture data (R 2 value > 0.53) and revealed preferential infiltration zones used to inform the flow model. Numerical simulation results from both the geophysics- and soil database-informed models quantified changes in soil saturation with calculated soil moistures that agreed with field data. The geophysics-informed model captured more of the system’s variability, reflective of shallow subsurface heterogeneities. The framework presented will serve as a precursor for a robust ecohydrological model that can describe the impacts of extreme events induced by climate change on coastal ecosystems.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗