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DOE OSTI2024

Informing forest carbon inventories under the Paris Agreement using ground-based forest monitoring data

Human interactions with forests have shaped Earth's climate for millennia and will continue to do so as we target net-zero emission goals. Accurately characterizing these climate impacts requires making reliable forest carbon data available for forest monitoring and planning. Here, we develop a semi-automated process for submitting forest carbon measurements from the largest relevant scientific database to the International Panel on Climate Change's Emission Factor Database, which currently has sparse forest carbon data. Building this bridge from scientific research to international policy is an important step towards managing forests in a net-zero motivated future. Humans have been influencing Earth's climate via transformative impacts on forests for millennia, and forests are now recognized as critical to climate change mitigation under the Paris Agreement. The efficacy of climate change mitigation planning and reporting depends on quality data on forest carbon (C) stocks and changes. The Emission Factor Database (EFDB) of the International Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) is intended to be a definitive source for such data, but needs comprehensive and well-documented data to be so. To facilitate submission of forest C estimates from scientific studies to EFDB, we develop and document a process for semi-automated data submission from the Global Forest C database (ForC v4.0), which is the largest compilation of ground-based forest C estimates. We then assess the data currently available through ForC and provide recommendations for improving forest data collection, analysis, and reporting. As of September 2024, ForC contained ~19,286 records potentially relevant to EFDB, 1068 of which had been submitted and posted to EFDB. These represented 19% of the total EFDB records for forest land. Records were unevenly distributed across variables and geographic regions. ForC records (37%) reviewed could not be submitted because the original publication lacked required information. In the future, ground-based forest C estimates should target gaps in the record, and studies should ensure that they report all information necessary for inclusion in EFDB. Given that climate change is rapidly impacting the world's forests, timely reporting of recent estimates will be critical to accurate forest C inventories.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2025

The National Solar Radiation Database Final Report: Fiscal Years 2022-2024

The National Solar Radiation Database (NSRDB) is the leading public source of high-resolution solar resource data in the United States, with more than 400,000 users annually. This database represents the state of the art in the satellite-based estimation of solar resource information and uses a unique physics-based modeling approach that enables improvements in accuracy with the deployment of the next-generation geostationary satellites. Making the highest-quality, state-of-the-art, regularly updated datasets available on a timely basis for users reduces costs of solar deployment by providing accurate information for siting studies and system output prediction and thereby reduces project financing costs and risks.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2024

TRUST Sensors in Environments: Fiber Optic Displacement (SE-FOD) Report, Release FY24

The objective of the Delivery Environments (DE) Testbeds to Reduce Uncertainty in Simulations and Tests (TRUST) project is to quantify and help increase confidence in specific areas of computational and experimental capabilities that are applicable to the development, on-target assessment, and qualification of current and future delivery environments. More complete quantification of confidence in experimental and computational capabilities and the sufficient increase of confidence in those capabilities is critical to improving weapons engineering design, qualification, and assessment efforts that are critical to the current and future stockpile. This work uses and provides feedback on analysis tools and experimental results databases for efficient and responsive engineering which are currently under development. Under the TRUST work package, there are five testbeds and their associated engineering analysis baseline models (EABMs): 1. Contact Thermal Conductivity (CTC), 2. Nonlinear Dynamics (ND), 3. Sensors in Environments: Accelerometers (SE-A), 4. Sensors in Environments: Fiber Optic Displacement Gauges (SE-FOD), and 5. Sensors in Environments: Thermocouples (SE-TC). The TRUST project uses single-feature testbeds to quantify uncertainties in specific models and experiments and to identify capability development needs that can help to reduce these uncertainties. Each testbed is designed, configured, and tested in collaboration with groups with design and experimental capability: E-14 and MPA-CINT. The complementary simulations are conducted using W-13 analysis tools and stored in model repositories with plans for incremental progress toward EABM requirements. W-13 extends and exercises the testbed simulations in collaboration with experimentalists for uncertainty quantification of current and future materials, geometries, and environments. Additionally, TRUST is intended to provide engineers in W-13 and E-14 with experience in both numerical simulations and experimental methods through cross-discipline collaborations. Following the introduction to the TRUST project, the remainder of this report focuses on experimental, modeling and simulation, and analysis efforts conducted in FY24 relevant to the TRUST Sensors in Environments: Fiber Optic Displacement (SE-FOD) testbed.

42 ENGINEERING↗

DOE OSTI2024

TRUST Sensors in Environments: Thermocouples (SE-TC) Report Release FY24

42 ENGINEERING↗

DOE OSTI2026

Assessing Photovoltaic Capacity Factor Variability Using Long-Term Satellite Derived Solar Resource Data Under Brazilian Climate

Accurate estimation of photovoltaic (PV) energy yield and its variability is essential for reducing financial risk and supporting reliable system planning for rapidly expanding PV markets. In Brazil, high solar adoption and increasing levels of distributed energy resources are beginning to introduce operational challenges such as curtailment and evolving grid requirements. Understanding how natural variability in solar resource propagates into PV system performance is therefore increasingly important for both project design and grid integration. Modern PV yield assessments commonly rely on multi-year meteorological datasets and probabilistic exceedance metrics (e.g., P50/P90) to quantify energy yield uncertainty for project financing. However, the implications of long-term solar resource variability for PV system design choices and high-adoption grid conditions remain less well characterized for rapidly expanding markets such as Brazil. In particular, understanding how weather-driven variability propagates into PV production distributions and capacity factor expectations is important for evaluating curtailment exposure, deployment strategies, and storage requirements in regions experiencing rapid growth of distributed and utility-scale PV. Seasonal and interannual variability in atmospheric conditions can produce substantial fluctuations in monthly PV energy production, which propagate into uncertainty in annual energy yield and capacity factor expectations. Characterizing this variability using long-term meteorological datasets allows probabilistic estimation of PV system performance and provides improved insight into the range of expected PV energy outcomes. This study explores the use of long-term satellite-derived meteorological data from the National Solar Radiation Database (NSRDB) to evaluate the variability of photovoltaic system performance across multiple locations in Brazil. Using a 27-year dataset (1998-2024), PV system simulations are performed to characterize the distribution of annual and seasonal capacity factors and energy yield outcomes, while propagating key sources of meteorological variability and model uncertainty through the PV modeling chain. The analysis also investigates the sensitivity of PV performance outcomes to key system design assumptions within the PV modeling chain, including tracking configuration and system sizing parameters. The resulting probabilistic performance characterization provides insight into how weather-driven variability influences PV production expectations and capacity factor distributions. These results provide a foundation for evaluating how weather-driven variability interacts with high PV adoption and potential storage or curtailment mitigation strategies.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2025

Advancing AI-Driven Analysis in X-ray Absorption Spectroscopy: Spectral Domain Mapping and Universal Models

In recent years, rapid progress has been made in developing artificial intelligence (AI) and machine learning (ML) methods for X-ray absorption spectroscopy (XAS) analysis. Compared to traditional XAS analysis methods, AI/ML approaches offer dramatic improvements in efficiency and help eliminate human bias. To advance this field, we advocate an AI-driven XAS analysis pipeline that features several interconnected key building blocks: benchmarks, workflows, databases, and AI/ML models. Specifically, we present two case studies for XAS ML. In the first study, we demonstrate the importance of reconciling the discrepancies between simulation and experiment using spectral domain mapping (SDM). Our ML model, which is trained solely on simulated spectra, predicts an incorrect oxidation state trend for Ti atoms in a combinatorial zinc titanate film. After transforming the experimental spectra into a simulation-like representation using SDM, the same model successfully recovers the correct oxidation state trend. In the second study, we explore the development of universal XAS ML models that are trained on the entire periodic table, which enables them to leverage common trends across elements. Looking ahead, we envision that an AI-driven pipeline can unlock the potential of real-time XAS analysis to accelerate scientific discovery.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

DOE OSTI2022

U.S. Pacific Coast Workshop Report on Preconstruction Research Recommendations (U.S. Offshore Wind Synthesis of Environmental Effects Research (SEER) Project)

In May 2022, the U.S. Offshore Wind Synthesis of Environmental Effects Research (SEER) project team hosted a stakeholder workshop focused on preconstruction (baseline) research needs for potential floating offshore wind (OSW) energy development on the U.S. Pacific Coast, including California, Oregon, and Washington. Prior to the workshop, the SEER team developed a set of initial synthesized research recommendations that were identified based on a review of relevant, publicly available resources and with advisory group input. The workshop covered three marine life breakout groups on subsequent days to discuss research recommendations related to 1) marine mammals and sea turtles, 2) fish and invertebrates, and 3) birds and bats. As part of the workshop, over a hundred participants from the public and private sectors provided feedback on various aspects of the initial research recommendations, including associated data and knowledge gaps, benefits/limitations of available methods and technologies, and technological advancements or infrastructure needed to address the recommendation. Approximately 1,000 total comments were received on the workshop MURAL boards and were synthesized in this report. Based on workshop feedback, SEER developed a final database of over 500 specific research recommendations based on more than 40 resources. In Fall 2022, the full database and a tool with updated synthesized research recommendations were disseminated on Tethys (https://tethys.pnnl.gov) to assist with informing future funding opportunities and research programming. There is a continued need to improve awareness of the potential environmental effects, monitoring technologies, and management strategies for floating OSW energy development on the U.S. Pacific Coast. Coordination of these activities will require the sustained involvement of multiple stakeholders from across sectors. Beyond the baseline considerations discussed in this workshop, future state-of-the-science activities should be planned to consider research needs across wind energy life cycle phases for all relevant wildlife taxa and associated habitat and ecosystem processes.

17 WIND ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2026

Full ribosomal operon sequencing of anaerobic gut fungi (phylum Neocallimastigomycota ): insights on its markers and phylogenetic resolution

The phylogenetic affiliations of anaerobic gut fungi (Neocallimastigomycota) are typically evaluated using single-gene markers. However, this approach often fails to resolve relationships between closely related lineages. To address this issue and identify alternative markers, we created a curated database comprising the complete ribosomal operon sequences of 156 isolates, representing 20 of the 22 recognized genera and two new genus-level clades. Using long-read sequencing, we obtained ~9 kbp operon sequences and developed a robust analysis pipeline. Incorporating both coding genes and non-coding regions (excluding IGS1) improved phylogenetic resolution. This phylogenetic approach successfully resolved the Cyllamyces and Caecomyces clades (hard-to-distinguish genetically), as well as seven analysed Piromyces species. We also scanned the operon for markers that are suitable for short-read sequencing platforms, with the aim of enhancing biodiversity and phylogenetic studies. Notably, the ETS1 genetic region also enabled the distinction between these lineages, indicating its phylogenetic value within the ribosomal operon. The resulting database is a valuable resource for expanding and strengthening phylogenetic frameworks.

High-throughput sequencing↗

DOE OSTI2025

FY 2025 End of Year Report: Seismic Monitoring of Underground Vibration Sources using Distributed Acoustic Sensing (DAS) and Seismometers

This end-of-year report summarizes progress on using seismic monitoring to detect, associate, and locate anomalous vibration signals that may indicate potential containment breaches. The work focused on four key tasks: 1. Developing a database of continuous waveforms and ground-truth event data from multiple sensing modalities. 2. Refining and implementing detection and association algorithms to generate a catalog of anomalous underground activities. 3. Testing and improving distributed acoustic sensing amplitude-based geolocation methods to build an event location catalog. 4. Testing and refining seismic array polarization-based geolocation methods to build an event location catalog. This report provides a brief recap of results from the FY25 midyear report (Tasks 1 and 2) and presents new findings from geolocation methods (Tasks 3 and 4).

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2026

Integrated Energy-Water Data for Cross-Sector Resilience

This white paper focuses on the “energy-for-water” domain, addressing the urgent need for integrated, empirical data to support regional management, benchmarking, and research on improving efficiency and developing technologies for water and wastewater management systems. The costs and energy required for the supply, treatment, and distribution of water and wastewater lack a standard data collection mechanism and centralized database or storage infrastructure, limiting data-driven decision-making across interdependent infrastructure systems.

42 ENGINEERING↗

DOE OSTI2025

Remote Sensing Improves Multi‐Hazard Flooding and Extreme Heat Detection by Fivefold Over Current Estimates

The co‐occurrence of multiple hazards is of growing concern globally as the frequency and magnitude of extreme climate events increases. Despite studies examining the spatial distribution of such events, there has been little work in examining if all relevant life threatening and damaging hazards are captured in existing hazard databases and by common hazard metrics. For example, local/regional flash flooding events are seldom captured by optical satellite instruments and are subsequently excluded from global hazard databases. Similarly, the heat hazard definitions most frequently used in multi‐hazard studies inherently fail to capture events that are life‐threatening but climatologically within an expected range. Our goal is to determine the potential for increasing multi‐hazard event detection capabilities by inferring additional hazard footprints from widely accessible satellite data. We use daily precipitation and temperature satellite data to develop an open‐source framework that infers additional hazard footprints that are not included in traditional methods. With the state of Texas as our study area, we detected 2.5 times as many flood hazards, equivalent to $320 million in property and crop damages. Furthermore, our expanded heat hazard definition increases the impacted area by 56.6%, equivalent to 91.5 million km 2 over an 18 year period. Increasing hazard detection capabilities and expanding existing definitions of hazards using daily satellite data increases the temporal and spatial resolutions at which multi‐hazard events are detected. Having more complete data sets of all relevant hazard extents improves our ability to track global trends and more accurately determine the magnitude of hazard exposure inequities.

equity↗

DOE OSTI2025

TRUST Sensors in Environments: Fiber Optic Displacement (SE-FOD)

42 ENGINEERING↗

DOE OSTI2025

Exploration of structure-activity relationships for the SARS-CoV-2 macrodomain from shape-based fragment linking and active learning

The macrodomain of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 nonstructural protein 3 is required for viral pathogenesis and is an emerging antiviral target. We previously performed an x-ray crystallography–based fragment screen and found submicromolar inhibitors by fragment linking. However, these compounds had poor membrane permeability and liabilities that complicated optimization. Here, we developed a shape-based virtual screening pipeline—FrankenROCS. We screened the Enamine high-throughput collection of 2.1 million compounds, selecting 39 compounds for testing, with the most potent binding with a 130 μM median inhibitory concentration (IC 50 ). We then paired FrankenROCS with an active learning algorithm (Thompson sampling) to efficiently search the Enamine REAL database of 22 billion molecules, testing 32 compounds with the most potent binding with a 220 μM IC 50 . Further optimization led to analogs with IC 50 values better than 10 μM. This lead series has improved membrane permeability and is poised for optimization. FrankenROCS is a scalable method for fragment linking to exploit synthesis-on-demand libraries.

Science & Technology - Other Topics↗

DOE OSTI2024

Data Visualization and Analytics for Optimal Process Parameter Selection in Turning

The objective of this project is to research physics-guided machine learning methods to recommend optimal tools and machining process parameters for turning applications using the MSC test database. For a given turning application, the MSC metalworking specialist needs to make decisions on tools and the associated process parameters for the MSC customer. For a given material, there are many alternatives for tools and a wide range of process parameters to consider. MSC has built a database of tools and parameters for different applications from the historical turning tests completed at various customer sites. The research project aims to use machine learning methods to predict optimal tools and process parameters for the MSC metalworking specialists using the MSC test database. This enables continuous learning of optimal tool and process parameters for different applications as new information is collected from testing. Through MSC, this information can be shared with machining shops across the US leading to improved productivity and efficiency.

42 ENGINEERING↗

DOE OSTI2024

Development of Hydropower Biological Evaluation Toolset (HBET): V2.1.9 Release Notes for HBET

The following release notes reflect changes made to HBET for proposed changes to be released in July 2024. Notes are broken up into three sections: 1) Key Improvements, 2) Bug Fixes, and 3) Data Changes • Key Improvements: primary features added and changes to existing features that affect the user experience. • Bug Fixes: Issues discovered or reported that were fixed in the proposed work to be released. • Data Changes: Any work done on the databases directly or the process to calculate data for the system.

13 HYDRO ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2024

Site Characterization of the Highest-Priority Geologic Formations for CO2 Storage in Wyoming

The project Site Characterization of the Highest-Priority Geologic Formations for CO2 Storage in Wyoming is one of 9 site characterization projects that were implemented as part of ARRA (American Recovery and Reinvestment Act). Data from this project was used to improve resolution of data in NATCARB in the area of study. Data related to this study has already been incorporated in NATCARB Atlas. The Wyoming Carbon Underground Storage Project (WY-CUSP) consisted of CO2 storage site characterization and evaluation, focusing on Wyoming’s most promising CO2 storage reservoirs (the Pennsylvanian Weber/Tensleep Sandstone and Mississippian Madison Limestone) and premier CO2 storage site (Rock Springs Uplift). Results from the WY-CUSP project suggest the two reservoirs could store up to 17,000 million tons of CO2. The WY-CUSP team drilled a stratigraphic test well and acquired a 3-D seismic survey covering 25 square miles of the Rock Springs Uplift site. The team retrieved 916 feet of core from the 12,810-foot-deep well, along with a complete log suite, borehole images, fluid samples, and other data. Project partners (1) provided continuous visual documentation of the core, including grain size, mineralogy, facies distribution, and porosity; (2) performed continuous permeability and velocity scans of selected reservoir intervals; and (3) chemically analyzed the fluid samples. WY-CUSP scientists integrated seismic attributes with observations from log suites, a VSP survey, core, fluid samples, and laboratory analyses, including continuous permeability scans. From these integrations, researchers constructed 3-D spatial distribution volumes of reservoir and seal properties that represent geological heterogeneity at the targeted CO2 storage site. The WY-CUSP team used this data to perform new CO2 plume migration simulations. Baker Hughes, Inc., completed a series of small-scale, in-situ water injectivity measurements. A database was formed when observations, analyses, and experiments from the stratigraphic test well were integrated. Correlation of these data allowed petrophysical parameters to be extrapolated from the test well out into the storage domain (5x5 mile 3-D seismic survey volume). This resulted in an improved, realistic understanding of performance assessments for potential CO2 storage scenarios. The WY-CUSP team worked on (1) improving CO2 storage resource estimates, (2) establishing long-term integrity and permanence of confining layers, (3) designing a profitable strategy for pressure management, and (4) evaluating the utilization of stored CO2 at the Rock Spring Uplift. Finally, Baker Hughes developed a microseismic baseline for the test site using in-bore geophones to complete field operations.

3-D seismic↗

DOE OSTI2024

RNA language models predict mutations that improve RNA function

Structured RNA lies at the heart of many central biological processes, from gene expression to catalysis. RNA structure prediction is not yet possible due to a lack of high-quality reference data associated with organismal phenotypes that could inform RNA function. We present GARNET (Gtdb Acquired RNa with Environmental Temperatures), a new database for RNA structural and functional analysis anchored to the Genome Taxonomy Database (GTDB). GARNET links RNA sequences to experimental and predicted optimal growth temperatures of GTDB reference organisms. Using GARNET, we develop sequence- and structure-aware RNA generative models, with overlapping triplet tokenization providing optimal encoding for a GPT-like model. Leveraging hyperthermophilic RNAs in GARNET and these RNA generative models, we identify mutations in ribosomal RNA that confer increased thermostability to the Escherichia coli ribosome. The GTDB-derived data and deep learning models presented here provide a foundation for understanding the connections between RNA sequence, structure, and function.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2025

An experimentally informed design process for future inertial confinement fusion facilities

The achievement of ignition in the laboratory has renewed interest in defining the requirements for a future high-gain inertial confinement fusion (ICF) facility. Our best chance of predicting future ICF performance is with 3-D radiation hydrodynamic simulations that have been benchmarked against experimental data, but their high computational cost is prohibitive for use in practical design studies. We introduce a hierarchical approach where 3-D simulations are tuned to match experimental measurements and used to train 3-D degradation models in 1-D simulations allowing for accurate predictions over the entire OMEGA direct-drive database. A genetic algorithm was used in combination with the trained 1-D simulations to search for optimal direct-drive implosion designs at driver energies ranging from 20 kJ to 10 MJ. As the fidelity of 3-D codes improves, this approach will provide a viable experimentally informed tool for defining the next ICF facility.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗