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86 records · Page 5

An Attempt to Observe Debris from the Breakup of a Titan 3C-4 Transtage

In February 2007 dedicated observations were made of the orbital space predicted to contain debris from the breakup of the Titan 3C-4 transtage back on February 21, 1992. These observations were carried out on the Michigan Orbital DEbris Survey Telescope (MODEST) in Chile with its 1.3deg field of view. The search region or orbital space (inclination and right ascension of the ascending node (RAAN) was predicted using NASA#s LEGEND (LEO-to-GEO Environment Debris) code to generate a Titan debris cloud. Breakup fragments are created based on the NASA Standard Breakup Model (including fragment size, area-to-mass (A/M), and delta-V distributions). Once fragments are created, they are propagated forward in time with a subroutine GEOPROP. Perturbations included in GEOPROP are those due to solar/lunar gravity, radiation pressure, and major geopotential terms. Barker, et. al, (AMOS Conference Proceedings, 2006, pp. 596-604) used similar LEGEND predictions to correlate survey observations made by MODEST (February 2002) and found several possible night-to-night correlations in the limited survey dataset. One conc lusion of the survey search was to dedicate a MODEST run to observing a GEO region predicted to contain debris fragments and actual Titan debris objects (SSN 25000, 25001 and 30000). Such a dedicated run was undertaken with MODEST between February 17 and 23, 2007 (UT dates). MODEST#s limiting magnitude of 18.0 (S\N approx.10) corresponds to a size of 22cm assuming a diffuse Lambertian albedo of 0.2. However, based on observed break-up data, we expect most debris fragments to be smaller than 22cm which implies a need to increase the effective sensitivity of MODEST for smaller objects. MODEST#s limiting size can be lowered by increasing the exposure time (20 instead of 5 seconds) and applying special image processing. The special processing combines individual CCD images to detect faint objects that are invisible on a single CCD image. Sub-images are cropped from six consecutive CCD images with pixel shifts between images being consistent with the predicted movement of a Titan object. A median image of all the sub-images is then created leaving only those objects with the proper Titan motion. Limiting the median image in this manner brings the needed computer time to process all images taken on one night down to about 50 hours of CPU time.

Barker, E. S.↗

Biological Research and Space Health Enabled by Machine Learning to Support Deep Space Missions

A key science goal of the NASA “Moon to Mars” campaign is to understand how biology responds to the Lunar, Martian, and deep space environments in order to advance fundamental knowledge and support human space missions. Through artificial intelligence (AI) and machine learning (ML), a paradigm shift has begun in space biosciences and engineered astronaut health systems, to enable Earth-independence and mission operations autonomy. We describe current AI/ML methods to support 1) fundamental biology, 2) in situ analytics, 3) high performance computing, 4) automated science, 5) self-driving labs, 6) remote data management, 7) integrated mission biomonitoring, and 8) a Precision Space Health system. AI/ML approaches that can be integrated to support these domains include active learning, explainable AI, adaptive learning, causal inference, knowledge graphs, federated learning, transfer learning, and large language models. Finally, we present results from several current ML projects that are underway in the space biology field to address key challenges of small sample n, high feature count, heterogeneity, and sparse data. These include 1) connecting omics to phenotypic data using an ensemble model to infer causality of rodent liver health disruption, 2) usage of explainable ML to interrogate muscular underpinnings of muscle atrophy, 3) ML models analyzing and determining directed acyclic graphs of human health risk leveraging rodent bone datasets, 4) usage of large pre-trained models connecting biomedical knowledgebases with small spaceflight datasets to understand gene-to-gene interactions, and 5) a suite of benchmarked open science datasets enabling programmers to identify best algorithms to answer space biology questions.

space biology↗

Validation and Application of Satellite-Derived Sea Surface Temperature Gradients in the Bering Strait and Bering Sea

The Arctic is one of the most important regions in the world’s oceans for understanding the impacts of a changing climate. Yet, it is also difficult to measure because of extreme weather and ice conditions. In this work, we directly compare four datasets from the Group for High-Resolution Sea Surface Temperature (GHRSST) with a NASA Saildrone deployment along the Alaskan Coast and the Bering Sea and Bering Strait. The four datasets used are the Remote Sensing Systems Microwave Infrared Optimally Interpolated (MWIR) product, the Canadian Meteorological Center (CMC) product, the Daily Optimally Interpolated Product (DOISST), and the Operational Sea Surface Temperature and Ice Analysis (OSTIA) product. Spatial sea surface temperature (SST) gradients were derived for both the Saildrone deployment and GHRSST products, with the GHRSST products collocated with the Saildrone deployment. Overall, statistics indicate that the OSTIA product had a correlation of 0.79 and a root mean square difference of 0.11 °C/km when compared with Saildrone. CMC had the highest correlation of 0.81. Scatter plots indicate that OSTIA had the slope closest to one, thus best reproducing the magnitudes of the Saildrone gradients. Differences increased at latitudes > 65°N where sea ice would have a greater impact. A trend analysis was then performed on the gradient fields. Overall, positive trends in gradients occurred in areas along the coastal regions. A negative trend occurred at approximately 60°N. A major finding of this study is that future work needs to revolve around the impact of changing ice conditions on SST gradients. Another major finding is that a northward shift in the southern ice edge occurred after 2010 with a maxima at approximately 2019. This indicates that the shift of the southern ice edge is not gradual but has dramatically increased over the last decade. Future work needs to revolve around examining the possible causes for this northward shift.

Arctic↗

Interactive Ozone and Methane Chemistry in GISS-E2 Historical and Future Climate Simulations

The new generation GISS climate model includes fully interactive chemistry related to ozone in historical and future simulations, and interactive methane in future simulations. Evaluation of ozone, its tropospheric precursors, and methane shows that the model captures much of the largescale spatial structure seen in recent observations. While the model is much improved compared with the previous chemistry-climate model, especially for ozone seasonality in the stratosphere, there is still slightly too rapid stratospheric circulation, too little stratosphere-to-troposphere ozone flux in the Southern Hemisphere and an Antarctic ozone hole that is too large and persists too long. Quantitative metrics of spatial and temporal correlations with satellite datasets as well as spatial autocorrelation to examine transport and mixing are presented to document improvements in model skill and provide a benchmark for future evaluations. The difference in radiative forcing (RF) calculated using modeled tropospheric ozone versus tropospheric ozone observed by TES is only 0.016W/sq. m. Historical 20th Century simulations show a steady increase in whole atmosphere ozone RF through 1970 after which there is a decrease through 2000 due to stratospheric ozone depletion. Ozone forcing increases throughout the 21st century under RCP8.5 owing to a projected recovery of stratospheric ozone depletion and increases in methane, but decreases under RCP4.5 and 2.6 due to reductions in emissions of other ozone precursors. RF from methane is 0.05 to 0.18W/ sq. m higher in our model calculations than in the RCP RF estimates. The surface temperature response to ozone through 1970 follows the increase in forcing due to tropospheric ozone. After that time, surface temperatures decrease as ozone RF declines due to stratospheric depletion. The stratospheric ozone depletion also induces substantial changes in surface winds and the Southern Ocean circulation, which may play a role in a slightly stronger response per unit forcing during later decades. Tropical precipitation shifts south during boreal summer from 1850 to 1970, but then shifts northward from 1970 to 2000, following upper tropospheric temperature gradients more strongly than those at the surface.

Ozone↗

A Quick Summary of IMERG Versions and Features

This talk will summarize the shifts in IMERG (Integrated Multi-satellitE Retrievals for GPM (Global Precipitation Measurement)) from Version 03 to 04 in early Spring 2016, and to Version 05 in late Summer 2017. For example, Version 04 replaced approximate pre-launch calibrations with GPM Core Observatory-based calibrations, while Version 05 introduced improved estimates for the primary GPM instrument products (DPR, GMI, and Combined Instrument). In Version 04 the IR estimates were routinely calibrated to the passive microwave estimates. As analysis showed that the Combined Instrument estimates (the IMERG calibration standard) tend to be biased high over land and low over ocean at higher latitudes, in Version 04 we climatologically calibrated IMERG to the Global Precipitation Climatology Project (GPCP) monthly Satellite-Gauge product, except in low- and mid-latitude ocean regions. This calibration leaves the relative time series intact, and only adjusts the mean of the entire series. In Version 05 the primary GPM instrument products have reduced biases, but calibration to GPCP continues to be necessary to achieve the most realistic estimates. Finally, retrospective processing back into the TRMM (Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission) era is expected in early 2018, after which the legacy TMPA (TRMM Multi-satellite Precipitation Analysis) dataset will be retired.

Huffman, George J.↗

Characterizing the Influence of the General Circulation on Marine Boundary Layer Clouds

The seasonal and intraseasonal variability of boundary layer cloud in the subtropical eastern oceans are studied using combined data from the International Satellite Cloud Climatology Project (ISCCP) and the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) reanalysis. Spectral analysis reveals that most of the time variability of cloud properties occurs on seasonal to annual time scales. The variance decreases one to two orders of magnitude for each decade of time scale decrease, indicating that daily to monthly time scales have smaller, but non-negligible variability. The length of these dominant time scales suggests that the majority of the variability is influenced by the general circulation and its interaction with boundary layer turbulence, rather than a product of boundary layer turbulence alone. Previous datasets have lacked the necessary resolution in either time or in space to properly characterize variability on synoptic scales; this is remedied by using global satellite-retrieved cloud properties. We characterize the intraseasonal subtropical cloud variability in both hemispheres and in different seasons. In addition to cloud fraction, we examine variability of cloud optical thickness - cloud top pressure frequency distributions. Despite the large concentration of research on the variability of Northern Hemisphere (NH) regions during summer, it is noted that the largest amplitude intraseasonal variability in the NH regions occurs during local winter. The effect of intraseasonal variability on the calculation and interpretation of seasonal results is investigated. Decreases in seasonally averaged cloud cover, optical thickness and cloud top pressure from the May-through-September season to the November-through-March season are most apparent in the NH regions. Further analysis indicates that these changes are due to an increase in frequency, but a decrease in the persistence of synoptic events. In addition, changes in cloud top pressure and optical thickness characteristics from the summer to winter seasons indicate that the NH subtropics undergo a change in dynamic regime with season. This change appears in the cloud fields as a shift from the more commonly seen lower-altitude, thicker optical thickness clouds to higher-altitude, thinner clouds. The latter cloud-type is associated with the lower sea level pressure, upward vertical velocity phase of the synoptic wave. Intraseasonal changes in cloud properties in the Southern Hemisphere and NH summer are much smaller in amplitude. Although they also appear to be linked to changes in the large-scale dynamics, similarly to NH winter variations, the relationships are more ambiguous due to the small amplitudes and longer time scales. We attempt to interpret some of these relationships using the results of the Betts and Ridgway (1989) box model. However, these results cannot consistently explain the patterns when results from all regions are considered, implying that this model may not adequately explain all the processes involved in the variability.

Rozendaal, Margaret A.↗

Biological Research and Space Health Enabled by Machine Learning to Support Deep Space Missions

A key science goal of the NASA “Moon to Mars” campaign is to understand how biology responds to the Lunar, Martian, and deep space environments in order to advance fundamental knowledge, reduce risk, and support safe, productive human space missions. Through the powerful emerging computer science approaches of artificial intelligence (AI) and machine learning (ML), a paradigm shift has begun in biomedical science and engineered astronaut health systems, to enable Earth-independence and autonomy of mission operations. We present a decadal view of AI/ML architecture to support deep space mission goals, developed in concert with leaders in the field. We describe current AI/ML methods to support 1) fundamental biology, 2) in situ analytics, 3) high performance computing hardware, 4) automated science, 5) self-driving labs, 6) remote data management, 7) integrated real-time mission biomonitoring, and 8) a Precision Space Health system. Cutting-edge AI/ML approaches that can be integrated to support these domains include active learning, explainable AI, adaptive learning, causal inference, knowledge graphs, federated learning, transfer learning, and large language models. Finally, we present results from several current ML projects that are underway in the field to address key challenges of small sample n, high feature count, heterogeneity, and sparse data. These include 1) connecting omics data to phenotypic data using an ensemble model to infer causality of spaceflight rodent liver health disruption, 2) usage of explainable ML to interrogate the muscular underpinnings of spaceflight muscle atrophy, 3) ML models analyzing and determining directed acyclic graphs of human space health risk leveraging rodent bone datasets, 4) usage of large pre-trained models connecting biomedical knowledgebases with small spaceflight datasets to understand gene-to-gene interaction networks, and 5) a suite of benchmarked open science datasets (spaceflight mouse liver; radiation DNA damage) enabling programmers to identify the best ML algorithms to answer space biological science questions.

space biology↗

Biological Research and Space Health Enabled by Machine Learning to Support Deep Space Missions

A key science goal of the NASA “Moon to Mars” campaign is to understand how biology responds to the Lunar, Martian, and deep space environments in order to advance fundamental knowledge, reduce risk, and support safe, productive human space missions. Through the powerful emerging computer science approaches of artificial intelligence (AI) and machine learning (ML), a paradigm shift has begun in biomedical science and engineered astronaut health systems, to enable Earth-independence and autonomy of mission operations. We present a decadal view of AI/ML architecture to support deep space mission goals, developed in concert with leaders in the field. We describe current AI/ML methods to support 1) fundamental biology, 2) in situ analytics, 3) high performance computing hardware, 4) automated science, 5) self-driving labs, 6) remote data management, 7) integrated real-time mission biomonitoring, and 8) a Precision Space Health system. Cutting-edge AI/ML approaches that can be integrated to support these domains include active learning, explainable AI, adaptive learning, causal inference, knowledge graphs, federated learning, transfer learning, and large language models. Finally, we present results from several current ML projects that are underway in the field to address key challenges of small sample n, high feature count, heterogeneity, and sparse data. These include 1) connecting omics data to phenotypic data using an ensemble model to infer causality of spaceflight rodent liver health disruption, 2) usage of explainable ML to interrogate the muscular underpinnings of spaceflight muscle atrophy, 3) ML models analyzing and determining directed acyclic graphs of human space health risk leveraging rodent bone datasets, 4) usage of large pre-trained models connecting biomedical knowledgebases with small spaceflight datasets to understand gene-to-gene interaction networks, and 5) a suite of benchmarked open science datasets (spaceflight mouse liver; radiation DNA damage) enabling programmers to identify the best ML algorithms to answer space biological science questions.

space biology↗

Quasi-Global Precipitation as Depicted in the GPCPV2.2 and TMPA V7

After a lengthy incubation period, the year 2012 saw the release of the Global Precipitation Climatology Project (GPCP) Version 2.2 monthly dataset and the TRMM Multi-satellite Precipitation Analysis (TMPA) Version 7. One primary feature of the new data sets is that DMSP SSMIS data are now used, which entailed a great deal of development work to overcome calibration issues. In addition, the GPCP V2.2 included a slight upgrade to the gauge analysis input datasets, particularly over China, while the TMPA V7 saw more-substantial upgrades: 1) The gauge analysis record in Version 6 used the (older) GPCP monitoring product through April 2005 and the CAMS analysis thereafter, which introduced an inhomogeneity. Version 7 uses the Version 6 GPCC Full analysis, switching to the Version 4 Monitoring analysis thereafter. 2) The inhomogeneously processed AMSU record in Version 6 is uniformly processed in Version 7. 3) The TMI and SSMI input data have been upgraded to the GPROF2010 algorithm. The global-change, water cycle, and other user communities are acutely interested in how these data sets compare, as consistency between differently processed, long-term, quasi-global data sets provides some assurance that the statistics computed from them provide a good representation of the atmosphere's behavior. Within resolution differences, the two data sets agree well over land as the gauge data (which tend to dominate the land results) are the same in both. Over ocean the results differ more because the satellite products used for calibration are based on very different algorithms and the dominant input data sets are different. The time series of tropical (30 N-S) ocean average precipitation shows that the TMPA V7 follows the TMI-PR Combined Product calibrator, although running approximately 5% higher on average. The GPCP and TMPA time series are fairly consistent, although the GPCP runs approximately 10% lower than the TMPA, and has a somewhat larger interannual variation. As well, the GPCP and TMPA interannual variations have an apparent phase shift, with GPCP running a few months later. Additional diagnostics will include mean maps and selected scatter plots.

Huffman, George J.↗

Earth Independent Medical Operations (EIMO) Datascope: Challenges and Potential Solutions

Data flows and storage/retrieval capacity are severely constrained during missions in space and challenges will become even greater during exploration class missions. There is a need for an artificial intelligence (AI)-based clinical decision support system (CDSS) to monitor and analyze data to provide real-time consultative support for crew medical officer (CMO) decision-making. EIMO is defined as the gradual transition of medical care and decision making from terrestrial to space-based assets, enabling support of astronaut health and performance and reducing overall mission risk. While a hallmark of this paradigm shift from low-earth orbit is that on-board care will increasingly become the responsibility of the astronauts for primary management and decision making, terrestrial assets will continue to be paramount in pre-mission screening and planning, as well as prevention, health maintenance and long-term care contingencies. New capabilities and systems that enable progressively more robust and resilient systems and crews will be necessary to reduce risk and increase probability of deep space exploration mission success. An aspiration for EIMO is to develop AI-enhanced solutions for analysis of crew health & performance data and to facilitate clinical decision support for autonomous medical operations. A “system of systems” approach is envisioned whereby EIMO will deploy AI-supported natural language processing and machine learning (ML) techniques to utilize embedded reference databases and real-time data streams [input vectors] from multiple data sources. Constituent input vectors may include environmental controls, countermeasures data, behavioral data, physiologic wearables, point-of-care laboratory tests, personalized medical records, inventory trade space risk assessments, COTS medical databases, and ground support inputs. An ideal AI capability would possess trained fusion algorithms to cross reference input vectors with medical ‘knowledge’ [cultivated database] to stratify relevant data streams for predictive and actionable capabilities. In addition, EIMO will feature mobility, in that it can be accessed and can push/pull data within and between multiple vehicles/habitats. Large amounts and variable sources of data can be leveraged to diagnose, inform treatment strategies, and potentially predict medical events and performance decrements. Inclusion of advanced training tools using extended reality will enable increasingly autonomous medical care to aid a CMO when ground support is unavailable or time-delayed beyond required action window, e.g., emergent medical situations. EIMO CDSS would require very large datasets to train pre-flight and significant amounts of data are needed to support ML via in-flight CDSS operations. An additional challenge will be to find sufficient data to train a model relevant to astronaut demographics. The rapid, accelerating evolution of this field creates a propitious solution space to leverage multi-modal AI through public-private partnership(s). The status of multi-modal AI systems today would preclude their use for long duration missions as they remain unreliable and are subject to “digital hallucinations” and other errors that could pose operational risk. A federated labs structure is being considered to test and optimize data flow from the multiple input vectors leading to field testing in suitable ground/flight analogs. Critical to the success of an EIMO CDSS will be integration and interoperability and success will be defined by a system that can serve as an in-flight medical consult for the CMO providing critical support during medical contingencies. Benefits to terrestrial medicine may be significant as an outflow of the EIMO medical system, particularly for remote areas and communities lacking significant infrastructure, personnel and resources.

J Lemery↗

Earth Independent Medical Operations (EIMO) Datascope: Challenges and Potential Solutions

Data flows and storage/retrieval capacity are severely constrained during missions in space and challenges will become even greater during exploration class missions. There is a need for an artificial intelligence (AI)-based clinical decision support system (CDSS) to monitor and analyze data to provide real-time consultative support for crew medical officer (CMO) decision-making. EIMO is defined as the gradual transition of medical care and decision making from terrestrial to space-based assets, enabling support of astronaut health and performance and reducing overall mission risk. While a hallmark of this paradigm shift from low-earth orbit is that on-board care will increasingly become the responsibility of the astronauts for primary management and decision making, terrestrial assets will continue to be paramount in pre-mission screening and planning, as well as prevention, health maintenance and long-term care contingencies. New capabilities and systems that enable progressively more robust and resilient systems and crews will be necessary to reduce risk and increase probability of deep space exploration mission success. An aspiration for EIMO is to develop AI-enhanced solutions for analysis of crew health & performance data and to facilitate clinical decision support for autonomous medical operations. A “system of systems” approach is envisioned whereby EIMO will deploy AI-supported natural language processing and machine learning (ML) techniques to utilize embedded reference databases and real-time data streams [input vectors] from multiple data sources. Constituent input vectors may include environmental controls, countermeasures data, behavioral data, physiologic wearables, point-of-care laboratory tests, personalized medical records, inventory trade space risk assessments, COTS medical databases, and ground support inputs. An ideal AI capability would possess trained fusion algorithms to cross reference input vectors with medical ‘knowledge’ [cultivated database] to stratify relevant data streams for predictive and actionable capabilities. In addition, EIMO will feature mobility, in that it can be accessed and can push/pull data within and between multiple vehicles/habitats. Large amounts and variable sources of data can be leveraged to diagnose, inform treatment strategies, and potentially predict medical events and performance decrements. Inclusion of advanced training tools using extended reality will enable increasingly autonomous medical care to aid a CMO when ground support is unavailable or time-delayed beyond required action window, e.g., emergent medical situations. EIMO CDSS would require very large datasets to train pre-flight and significant amounts of data are needed to support ML via in-flight CDSS operations. An additional challenge will be to find sufficient data to train a model relevant to astronaut demographics. The rapid, accelerating evolution of this field creates a propitious solution space to leverage multi-modal AI through public-private partnership(s). The status of multi-modal AI systems today would preclude their use for long duration missions as they remain unreliable and are subject to “digital hallucinations” and other errors that could pose operational risk. A federated labs structure is being considered to test and optimize data flow from the multiple input vectors leading to field testing in suitable ground/flight analogs. Critical to the success of an EIMO CDSS will be integration and interoperability and success will be defined by a system that can serve as an in-flight medical consult for the CMO providing critical support during medical contingencies. Benefits to terrestrial medicine may be significant as an outflow of the EIMO medical system, particularly for remote areas and communities lacking significant infrastructure, personnel and resources.

Medical Operations↗

Forty-Year Calibrated Record of Earth-Surface Reflected Radiance from Landsat: A Review

Sensors on Landsat satellites have been collecting images of the Earth's surface for nearly 40 years. These images have been invaluable for characterizing and detecting changes in the land cover and land use of the world. Although initially conceived as primarily picture generating sensors, even the early sensors were radiometrically calibrated and spectrally characterized prior to launch and incorporated some capabilities to monitor their radiometric calibration once on orbit. Recently, as the focus of studies has shifted to monitoring Earth surface parameters over significant periods of time, serious attention has been focused toward bringing the data from all these sensors onto a common radiometric scale over this 40-year period. This effort started with the most recent systems and then was extended back in time. Landsat-7 ETM+, the best-characterized sensor of the series prior to launch and once on orbit, and the most stable system to date, was chosen to serve as the reference. The Landsat-7 project was the first of the series to build an image assessment system into its ground system, allowing systematic characterization of its sensors and data. Second, the Landsat-5 TM (still operating at the time of the Landsat-7 launch and continues to operate) calibration history was reconstructed based on its internal calibrator, vicarious calibrations, pseudo-invariant sites and a tie to Landsat-7 ETM+ at the time of the commissioning of Landsat-7. This process was performed in two iterations: the earlier one relied primarily on the TM internal calibrator. When this was found to have some deficiencies, a revised calibration was based more on pseudo-invariant sites, though the internal calibrator was still used to establish the short-term variations in response due to icing build up on the cold focal plane. As time progressed, a capability to monitor the Landsat-5 TM was added to the image assessment system. The Landsat-4 TM, which operated from 1982-1992, was the third system to which the radiometric scale was extended. The limited and broken use of the Landsat-4 TM made this analysis more difficult. Eight-day separated image pairs from Landsat-5 combined with analysis of pseudo invariant sites established this history. The fourth and most challenging effort was making the Landsat-1 to -5 MSS sensors' data internally radiometrically consistent. This effort was particularly complicated by the age of the MSS data, varying formats and processing levels in the archive, limited datasets, and limited documentation available. Ultimately, pseudo-invariant sites were identified in North America and used for this effort. Note that most of the Landsat-MSS archived data had already been calibrated using the MSS internal calibrators, so this processing was imbedded in the result. The final effort was developing an absolute scale for Landsat MSS similar to what was already established for the "TM" sensors. This was accomplished by using simultaneous data from Landsat-5 MSS and Landsat-5 TM, accounting for spectral differences between the sensors using EO-1 Hyperion data. The recalibrated history of the Landsat data and implications to users are discussed. The key result from this work is a consistently calibrated Landsat data archive that spans nearly 40 years with total uncertainties on the order of 10% or less for most sensors and bands.

Markham, Brian↗

Three Paradigms of Lunar Regolith Evolution

Integration of diverse datasets on the Moon may render some paradigms of lunar science either better-defended or vulnerable. We will consider three paradigms commonly used for understanding the processes of lunar regolith evolution in light of new and accumulated data. Our premise is that all data-sets should converge to a single interpretation if a concept or model is to be accepted as a paradigm. If a convergence is lacking, the paradigm needs fresh scrutiny. SteadyState: Lunar regolith evolution is currently understood in terms of comminution, agglutination, and replenishment as described by McKay and coworkers). Briefly, the model envisages continued micrometeoritic bombardment to comminute exposed soil particles to finer sizes while continued agglutination consumes finer sizes to produce larger constructional particles. Eventually, a balance between these two opposing processes achieves a steady state; soils at steady state maintain their mean grain size (M(sub z)). Episodic higher-energy impacts excavate fresh coarse material from below the soil cover, disturb the steady state, and restart the process to achieve a new steady state. It follows that the thickness of the regolith at any site would control the frequency of replenishment; indeed, the thickness of the regolith at Apollo landing sites was predicted by McKay et al. from the average M(sub z) of local soils. However, replenishment may come also from disintegrating boulders and cobbles at the lunar surface, and rates of comminution and agglutination may depend on the properties of target material. Regression between M(sub z) and I(sub s)/Fe(sup 0) (a measure of maturity or total surface exposure) of Apollo soils at different sites shows the following relations and estimated M(sub z) at a high maturity of I(sub s)/Fe(sup 0)= 100. It is possible that Apollo 12 and 15 sites have the thickest regolith and the Apollo 16 site has the thinnest. It is also possible that Apollo 12 and 15 basalts are comminuted faster than Apollo 16 highland rocks and Apollo 14 and 17 soils are products of mixed parentage. If a soil becomes continually finer as it matures until agglutination catches up, and if comminution is differential-dependent on the physical properties of the constituents, then the composition of the bulk soil has to match the composition of some "fulcrum" grain size fraction, say X Grain size fractions >X and <X will complement each other; their mass balance is the bulk soil. It appears that the 10-20-micron size fraction may be the fulcrum. In general, trace-element chemistry and IR reflectance spectra of this size fraction are closest to that of the bulk soil, regardless of maturity that is surprising. Disaggregated products of regolith breccias may also show similar relationships. If the 10-20 gm is the fulcrum (i.e., X as above) for many soil properties (e.g., major element composition, FMR, solar-wind-implanted elements), then this may be the ultimate mean grain size of lunar soils at steady state. However, different properties of soils may find steady states at different grain size fractions. The steady state of solar-wind-implanted elements, on the other hand, will climb up the grain-size scale as agglutinates transfer surface-correlated components into volume correlated components until a saturation level is reached or the rates of replenishment and implantation become equal. The same will be the case with vapor-deposited reduced metals as they too are incorporated inside constructional particles. Properties that are directly affected by soil-maturation processes will thus have different pathways of achieving steady states. Maturity, i.e., cumulative surface exposure, of lunar soils is best quantified by the amount of nanophase superparamagnetic Fe(sup 0) (np-Fe(sup 0)) normalized to Fe content (=I(sub s)/Fe(sup 0). The majority consensus (paradigm?) for the production of np-Fe(sup 0) is associated with the production of agglutinates. Because large doses of solar-wind H are implanted in all lunar soils upon exposure, any melting (e.g., during agglutinate production) triggers a chemical reduction of Fe-bearing minerals resulting in np-Fe(sup 0) production. The quantity of np-Fe(sup 0) is thus dependent on melting events, (i.e., exposure), and limited by the Fe content of the soil. All freshly produced np-Fe(sup 0) resides in agglutinitic glass, as new TEM images show. Apparently, the correction procedure developed by Lucey et al. to estimate the Fe content of the lunar surface from IR-reflectance spectra depends on accepting the above. However, the process of producing np-Fe(sup 0) may be physical rather than chemical. All np-Fe(sup 0) could be deposits from a vapor produced by micrometeoritic impact on lunar soils. If metal-O bonds in target phases are broken, O being "most volatile" will escape leaving an O-deficient vapor to facilitate the production of np-Fe(sup 0). If so, the quantity of np-Fe(sup 0) is dependent on the vaporizing events, (i.e., exposure), and limited by the efficiency of breaking metal-O bonds and the escape of 0. To the extent that strengths of metal-O bonds are dependent on the local crystal field, production of np-Fe(sup 0) may be limited by the mineral composition of target soils and not by their total Fe content. According to this model, vapor-deposited np-Fe(sup 0) should be found at any retentive sites on lunar soil grains. Indeed, TEM images show np-Fe(sup 0) on plagioclase and ilmenite. Incorporation of such pre-irradiated np-Fe(sup 0)-bearing grains into agglutinates may account for eventual increased emplacement of np-Fe(sup 0) in agglutinates. Such a paradigm shift in understanding the origin of np-Fe(sup 0) will raise questions ranging from the unquestionable use of Is/FeO as the universal maturity parameter of lunar soils to global elemental maps of the Moon from remote-sensing data. Additional information is contained in the original.

Basu, A.↗

Investigating Low-Altitude Constellations of Ad-Hoc Lunar PNT System for Distributed Spacecraft Autonomy

In this study, we examine a low-altitude Lunar Position, Navigation, and Timing (LPNT) constellations and the localization performance of Centralized Extended Kalman Filter (CEKF) and Decentralized Extended Kalman Filter (DEKF) algorithms. The primary investigation involves a 100-node swarm operating at a 100 km altitude, in contrast to previous studies that examined a 21-node asset in a frozen-orbit at 5,500 km. The autonomous operation of large-scale swarm is based on two-way Inter-Satellite Link (ISL) measurements, which involve pseudoranges and relative velocities among swarm nodes. We perform a numerical assessment of the two filtering approaches, utilizing ‘fully sampled’ measurements from all available assets as well as ‘two ISL’ measurements where each spacecraft is restricted to only two antennas. This research includes an analysis of CEKF under 2-ISL constraints and evaluates the performance of DEKF in a 100-node swarm, which has not been explored in previous studies. In addition, we examine the impact of increasing the sampling frequency for DEKF, showing that the update cycle can be shortened from a 10-minute interval. A novel approach for ‘2-ISL limited’ DEKF will also be introduced, using a matching formulation that exhaustively enumerates all potential matches. This study provides valuable insights into large-scale distributed swarm operations, considering various filter configurations, sampling frequencies, matching strategies, and scalability of CEKF and DEKF for low-altitude LPNT applications. The Lunar PNT technology plays a key role in providing reliable and robust navigation services on the Moon's surface and the South pole, where the primary Lunar missions are planned. To support upcoming Lunar missions, including small satellites from NASA's Commercial Lunar Payload Services program, the Lunar PNT system must be adaptable to smaller platforms like CubeSats. Driven by the growing involvement of public and private exploration partnerships, the traditional low Earth orbit missions are shifting to beyond geosynchronous orbit [1]. These upcoming missions aim to foster a sustainable and innovative exploration program, in collaboration with commercial and international partners, to facilitate human expansion throughout the solar system and return new knowledge and opportunities to Earth [2]. As part of this trend, there are increasing efforts to utilize science missions in Lunar orbit to develop a non-dedicated and ad-hoc PNT network system. Two traditional approaches, the Deep Space Network (DSN) and the weak signal Global Positioning System (GPS), are established deep-space navigation technologies for missions beyond the geosynchronous orbit. Beginning in 1958, the DSN was developed to communicate with the Explorer 1 spacecraft based on the use of radiometric tracking in spacecraft navigation [3]. The DSN is capable of providing nearly unfettered coverage to spacecraft beyond low-Earth orbit (LEO), however, increased space mission volume has created concerns about future expectations of DSN usage for spacecraft navigation [4]. For cislunar mission applications, the position accuracy using DSN achieves 100 m (3σ) with at least three geometrically diverse ground stations when using radiometric tracking alone [5]. The DSN's dependence on Earth-based ground stations restricts its operational capabilities to periods of Earth visibility. This limitation, coupled with its poor localization performance, renders the DSN unsuitable for future lunar missions that demand continuous tracking and precise positioning. To satisfy the increasing requirements of DSN in Lunar applications, spacecrafts are also required to improve their onboard antenna power and efficiency of the transmission. However, there is an important aggregate cost trade between adding capabilities to every spacecraft and adding to a capacity on the ground that serves multiple spacecraft [6]. A weak GPS system can provide PNT service while the user spacecraft is bound to the Moon, leveraging a single, steerable high gain antenna with the relatively narrow beam which includes all the sources in its field of view [7]. However, the higher the altitude the receiver is above the GPS constellations, the poorer and the weaker are the relative geometry and the received signal powers, respectively, leading to a significant navigation accuracy reduction [8]. The transmitted power becomes weaker with increasing distance from the Earth as well as signals tracked from one of the side lobes of the GPS antenna pattern. As a results, the number of visible satellites and relative geometric condition of the GPS satellites at very high altitude drops dramatically and reduces the navigation solution accuracy. Therefore, the weak GPS system is also not an ideal way to provide PNT service to upcoming Lunar missions when considering its limited geometric condition and the recued navigation accuracy. Another navigation approach on the Moon is being developed, similar to the Global Navigation Satellite System (GNSS) on Earth, aiming to offer navigation service with continuous 24/7 coverage across the entire Lunar surface. For example, lunar communications relay and navigation systems (LCRNS) by NASA and Lunar navigation satellite systems (LNSS) by JAXA are designed to serve as dedicated Position, Navigation, and Timing (PNT) systems for the Moon. However, designing a dedicated LNSS and PNT service involves additional challenges, which are unique to the lunar environment, including limited payload capacity for the CubeSat platform, i.e., the size, weight, and power (SWaP) of the onboard clock, limited lunar ground monitoring stations, and limited financial investment as compared to the legacy Earth-GPS [9]. NASA’s focus on utilizing CubeSat platforms on the Moon leads to an alternative Lunar navigation platform that leverages the existing Lunar science and exploration assets. The small satellites used in Lunar missions can be used to create a low-cost, autonomous, ad-hoc, and on-demand mission-centric Lunar PNT swarm capable of providing PNT services to these low-cost lunar missions [10]. As upcoming Lunar missions will often operate at low-altitude about 30 km to 100 km for scientific observations and mapping purposes, the low-altitude orbital constellations could be employed to create an ad-hoc Lunar PNT system. However, several issues must be addressed, such as the instability of these orbits, which often require maintenance or are only suitable for short-duration missions, operating for fewer than 90 days. Additionally, at an altitude of 100 km, the satellites have a limited period during which they are above the horizon and capable of providing PNT service to users. The implementation of a non-dedicated, ad-hoc Lunar navigation constellation facilitates on-demand PNT services. A preliminary study of ad-hoc Lunar PNT system was conducted using 21 spacecraft in 5,5000 km altitude frozen orbits to test its feasibility and a basic performance of orbital asset localization among ad-hoc Lunar constellations in small satellites format [10]. These swarm assets are designed for autonomous localization with minimal Earth interaction, reducing dependency on bandwidth and ground resources. The design in [10] demonstrated the feasibility of a decentralized PNT approach, specifically employing a DEKF approach for state estimation, which helps minimize onboard operating costs. The DEKF method distributes computation across individual satellites, which lightens the computational load while maintaining accuracy in orbit ephemeris and clock offsets, similar to centralized systems [11]. In a follow-on study [12], each spacecraft was limited to 2 communications antennae, forcing the selection of measurements and scheduling spacecraft activities to perform the measurements. A matching algorithm is implemented to select the best measurements and schedule position estimation updates. The decentralized localization performance is also investigated with increasing levels of network degradation for swarm assets considering the impact of intermittent and permanent communication failure, to demonstrate the robustness and fidelity of the decentralized Lunar PNT service [13]. This study confirmed that the ad-hoc PNT constellations in frozen orbit are highly robust and resilient to communication failures. However, unlike frozen orbit swarm assets, the low-altitude satellites have a limited ground view at an altitude of 100 km, where the ad-hoc Lunar constellation consists of 98 low-altitude satellites, evenly distributed across seven circular polar orbital planes, alongside two satellites in a frozen orbit at an altitude of 5,500 km (Figure 1). Therefore, the number of satellites visible to ground users is significantly limited in low-altitude orbit constellations. As each visibility of a spacecraft remains intact for only a few ticks before it moves out of the field of view, the ground user encounters challenges in maintaining continuous navigation service, resulting in sparse availability and provision of Lunar PNT system. Consequently, service availability is primarily restricted to the Lunar South Pole region (Figure 2). Given these limitations and concerns, the localization performance of low-altitude swarm assets will be assessed in this study. We focus on the investigation of the localization performance of low-altitude swarm assets and ground users near the Lunar South Pole. The overall flow of the Lunar PNT simulation incorporates the DEKF approach of asset localization and the weighted least-squares approach in user localization (Figure 3). The autonomous Lunar PNT simulation is primarily implemented in MATLAB, where the DEKF based on the matching scheduler is implemented with Google’s OR-tools as a model builder and Gurobi optimization tool as a backend solver. The General Mission Analysis Tool (GMAT) is utilized to generate ephemeris data for swarm assets, and accounts for satellite orbital details, mass, and perturbations like solar radiation pressure and drag coefficients. Each ephemeris dataset is produced in the Moon International Celestial Reference Frame (ICRF) inertial coordinate system. For state estimation, the distributed swarm assets rely on two-way Inter-Satellite Link (ISL) measurements, which involve tracking pseudoranges and relative velocities between visible satellites and anchor nodes during each observation. Numerical evaluations of the decentralized localization process are conducted to demonstrate the feasibility of the low-altitude PNT system in providing reliable navigation services. The main approach involves using DEKF and CEKF to localize 100 satellites in low-altitude constellations, where the CEKF is implemented to serve as a baseline for comparing the performance of distributed algorithms. In both cases, we evaluate ‘fully sampled’ measurements from all available assets, and ‘two ISL’ measurements when spacecraft are constrained to have only two antennas. We test four estimation techniques: CEKF fully sampled, CEKF two ISL, DEKF fully sampled, and DEKF two ISL filters. As the DEKF update cycle is comprised of network setup, communication, and computations, a global broadcast network and 2-way ISL network setup will take from 4 to 6 minutes as maximum [12]. In this simulation, the DEKF update cycle is set to 10 minutes, including a 4-minute latency for obtaining and computing the actual measurement updates. We experiment an increased update cycle to demonstrate the feasibility and evaluate the impact on localization performance using various tuning values for measurement noise covariances (Figures 4 and 5). By comparing centralized and decentralized approaches using a matching algorithm, we analyze the influence of cross-correlation factors in the covariance matrix, assuming 100% reliability of all assets and measurements. The increased frequency and the adjustments of tuning parameters reveal distinct error patterns between the two scenarios. The localization accuracy of the swarm assets and ground users is assessed by taking the median error across 100 assets and one ground user (84.9°S, 137.5°E) over 7-day simulation period (Table 1). Since the user localization accuracy is significantly affected by the performance of the swarm assets, it is crucial to maintain high localization accuracy within the swarm. This study will continue to explore decentralized filtering for autonomous LPNT operations, with further investigation of an 'iterative' matching approach which enumerates every valid matching pair, planned for the following month.

Yeji Kim↗