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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
NASA NTRS2015

ExMC Work Prioritization Process

Last year, NASA's Human Research Program (HRP) introduced the concept of a "Path to Risk Reduction" (PRR), which will provide a roadmap that shows how the work being done within each HRP element can be mapped to reducing or closing exploration risks. Efforts are currently underway within the Exploration Medical Capability (ExMC) Element to develop a structured, repeatable process for prioritizing work utilizing decision analysis techniques and risk estimation tools. The goal of this effort is to ensure that the work done within the element maximizes risk reduction for future exploration missions in a quantifiable way and better aligns with the intent and content of the Path to Risk Reduction. The Integrated Medical Model (IMM) will be used to identify those conditions that are major contributors of medical risk for a given design reference mission. For each of these conditions, potential prevention, screening, diagnosis, and treatment methods will be identified. ExMC will then aim to prioritize its potential investments in these mitigation methods based upon their potential for risk reduction and other factors such as vehicle performance impacts, near term schedule needs, duplication with external efforts, and cost. This presentation will describe the process developed to perform this prioritization and inform investment discussions in future element planning efforts. It will also provide an overview of the required input information, types of process participants, figures of merit, and the expected outputs of the process.

Simon, Matthew↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Protecting Crew and Surface Systems with a Long-Duration Lunar Safe Haven

NASA’s Artemis program will send astronauts to the lunar surface for extended mission durations throughout the 2030s, with a focus on sustainability and extensibility for Mars exploration, as described in NASA’s “Artemis Plan”. However, NASA must place more emphasis on protecting both the crew and the exploration surface systems if they hope to achieve long-duration sustainability on the lunar surface. It is now reasonably achievable with excavation, construction, and autonomy technologies to achieve a significant level of protection that architectures have been unable to achieve to date. The Lunar Safe Haven (LSH) was proposed to protect astronauts, electronics, and other surface exploration systems from the hazards of the lunar environment, including radiation, micrometeoroid strikes, lunar dust, thermal vacuum, etc. During the study, Level Zero Requirements were developed for the LSH, and a decision analysis framework was baselined to evaluate concepts. The LSH Study also performed a comprehensive trade study, during which it identified numerous alternatives for establishing and maintaining a safe haven shelter on the lunar surface. This paper reviews the products developed during the study and presents the final recommendations.

radiation shielding↗
NASA NTRS1972

NASA program decisions using reliability analysis.

NASA made use of the analytical outputs of reliability people to make management decisions on the Apollo program. Such decisions affected the amount of the incentive fees, how much acceptance testing was necessary, how to optimize development testing, whether to approve engineering changes, and certification of flight readiness. Examples of such analysis are discussed and related to programmatic decisions.-

Steinberg, A.↗
NASA NTRS1985

Rule-based analysis of pilot decisions

The application of the rule identification technique to the analysis of human performance data is proposed. The relation between the language and identifiable consistencies is discussed. The advantages of production system models for the description of complex human behavior are studied. The use of a Monte Carlo significance testing procedure to assure the validity of the rule identification is examined. An example of the rule-based analysis of Palmer's (1983) data is presented.

Lewis, C. M.↗
NASA NTRS2013

Closed-Loop Analysis of Soft Decisions for Serial Links

We describe the benefit of using closed-loop measurements for a radio receiver paired with a counterpart transmitter. We show that real-time analysis of the soft decision output of a receiver can provide rich and relevant insight far beyond the traditional hard-decision bit error rate (BER) test statistic. We describe a Soft Decision Analyzer (SDA) implementation for closed-loop measurements on single- or dual- (orthogonal) channel serial data communication links. The analyzer has been used to identify, quantify, and prioritize contributors to implementation loss in live-time during the development of software defined radios. This test technique gains importance as modern receivers are providing soft decision symbol synchronization as radio links are challenged to push more data and more protocol overhead through noisier channels, and software-defined radios (SDRs) use error-correction codes that approach Shannon's theoretical limit of performance.

Lansdowne, Chatwin A.↗
NASA NTRS1975

Psychophysical Models for Signal Detection with Time Varying Uncertainty

Psychophysical models for the behavior of the human operator in detection tasks which include change in detectability, correlation between observations and deferred decisions are developed. Classical Signal Detection Theory (SDT) is discussed and its emphasis on the sensory processes is contrasted to decision strategies. The analysis of decision strategies utilizes detection tasks with time varying signal strength. The classical theory is modified to include such tasks and several optimal decision strategies are explored. Two methods of classifying strategies are suggested. The first method is similar to the analysis of ROC curves, while the second is based on the relation between the criterion level (CL) and the detectability. Experiments to verify the analysis of tasks with changes of signal strength are designed. The results show that subjects are aware of changes in detectability and tend to use strategies that involve changes in the CL's.

Gai, E.↗
NASA NTRS2012

Closed-Loop Analysis of Soft Decisions for Serial Links

Modern receivers are providing soft decision symbol synchronization as radio links are challenged to push more data and more overhead through noisier channels, and software-defined radios use error-correction techniques that approach Shannon s theoretical limit of performance. The authors describe the benefit of closed-loop measurements for a receiver when paired with a counterpart transmitter and representative channel conditions. We also describe a real-time Soft Decision Analyzer (SDA) implementation for closed-loop measurements on single- or dual- (orthogonal) channel serial data communication links. The analyzer has been used to identify, quantify, and prioritize contributors to implementation loss in real-time during the development of software defined radios.

Lansdowne, Chatwin A.↗
NASA NTRS1972

Natural Resource Information System, design analysis

The computer-based system stores, processes, and displays map data relating to natural resources. The system was designed on the basis of requirements established in a user survey and an analysis of decision flow. The design analysis effort is described, and the rationale behind major design decisions, including map processing, cell vs. polygon, choice of classification systems, mapping accuracy, system hardware, and software language is summarized.

Source record↗
NASA NTRS1988

Dypas: A dynamic payload scheduler for shuttle missions

Decision and analysis systems have had broad and very practical application areas in the human decision making process. These software systems range from the help sections in simple accounting packages, to the more complex computer configuration programs. Dypas is a decision and analysis system that aids prelaunch shutlle scheduling, and has added functionality to aid the rescheduling done in flight. Dypas is written in Common Lisp on a Symbolics Lisp machine. Dypas differs from other scheduling programs in that it can draw its knowledge from different rule bases and apply them to different rule interpretation schemes. The system has been coded with Flavors, an object oriented extension to Common Lisp on the Symbolics hardware. This allows implementation of objects (experiments) to better match the problem definition, and allows a more coherent solution space to be developed. Dypas was originally developed to test a programmer's aptitude toward Common Lisp and the Symbolics software environment. Since then the system has grown into a large software effort with several programmers and researchers thrown into the effort. Dypas is currently using two expert systems and three inferencing procedures to generate a many object schedule. The paper will review the abilities of Dypas and comment on its functionality.

Davis, Stephen↗
NASA NTRS1988

Learning from examples - Generation and evaluation of decision trees for software resource analysis

A general solution method for the automatic generation of decision (or classification) trees is investigated. The approach is to provide insights through in-depth empirical characterization and evaluation of decision trees for software resource data analysis. The trees identify classes of objects (software modules) that had high development effort. Sixteen software systems ranging from 3,000 to 112,000 source lines were selected for analysis from a NASA production environment. The collection and analysis of 74 attributes (or metrics), for over 4,700 objects, captured information about the development effort, faults, changes, design style, and implementation style. A total of 9,600 decision trees were automatically generated and evaluated. The trees correctly identified 79.3 percent of the software modules that had high development effort or faults, and the trees generated from the best parameter combinations correctly identified 88.4 percent of the modules on the average.

Selby, Richard W.↗
NASA NTRS2022

Reliability-Aware Requirements Development for Autonomy Software

Autonomy is the ability of a system to make decisions and take actions in the presence of uncertainty. Validating autonomy, therefore, is a matter of validating that the system makes intelligent decisions even when there might be discrepancies between the observed and the expected state of the world as well as when the possible outcome of each of the possible courses of action is uncertain. During the requirements engineering phase, the functions, including those that are required to be autonomous and their expected behavior are specified. However, in the case of autonomous software system, it is challenging to specify all possible scenarios that the software may encounter. Additionally, since autonomous behaviors cannot always be fully predetermined, it is difficult to reason about their completeness and correctness. While these challenges are also faced with non-autonomous system, they are more prevalent for autonomous system due to their complexity and emergent behavior. Our efforts have been three-fold. On one hand, we have developed a goal-based method for requirements decomposition. We have embedded this approach into a higher-level systems engineering framework and then developed methods for decision and reliability analysis within this framework. And finally, we use simulation analysis to validate the more theoretical methods and provide a feedback mechanism. The decision analysis approach (DA) helps in identifying and mitigating the run-time risks, by bringing to the forefront the uncertainties, decisions, interactions, and other factors that may cause autonomous software to make erroneous decisions. The DA framework is used to quantify, for each decision that the software can make, failure risk due to uncertainties. The information about the key decisions and circumstances that can cause autonomous system to make incorrect decisions are used to generate test scenarios to be run in a simulator to ensure that the system can handle error-prone circumstances. The results or outcomes from decisions, based on the simulated scenarios, can then be leveraged to further gain insight of the assured system. We combine a goal-based approach with simulation analysis to facilitate requirements development for autonomous systems and further provide a method for run-time systems level reliability considerations during the autonomous software development process. The DA and the reliability analysis methods provide a formalism for the consideration of uncertainty in the run time decision-making process for autonomous software. This formalism considers the uncertainty involved in the outcome of different courses of action, in terms of performance and cost, as well as a method to consider the system level reliability implications. System level reliability considerations for autonomous software decision making contribute to the satisfaction of the system level goals over the lifecycle of a given mission. We demonstrate our approach using a hypothetical rover path planning example. The requirements for our rover simulator are based on existing literature about Mars rovers and lessons learned from real world observations at JPL. The specifics of the autonomy design for the Mars rovers, that have not been previously cleared for external release, are not used for our demonstrations.

Lindvall, Mikael↗
NASA NTRS2009

Human/Automation Trade Methodology for the Moon, Mars and Beyond

It is possible to create a consistent trade methodology that can characterize operations model alternatives for crewed exploration missions. For example, a trade-space that is organized around the objective of maximizing Crew Exploration Vehicle (CEV) independence would have the input as a classification of the category of analysis to be conducted or decision to be made, and a commitment to a detailed point in a mission profile during which the analysis or decision is to be made. For example, does the decision have to do with crew activity planning, or life support? Is the mission phase trans-Earth injection, cruise, or lunar descent? Different kinds of decision analysis of the trade-space between human and automated decisions will occurs at different points in a mission's profile. The necessary objectives at a given point in time during a mission will call for different kinds of response with respect to where and how computers and automation are expected to help provide an accurate, safe, and timely response. In this paper, a consistent methodology for assessing the trades between human and automated decisions on-board will be presented and various examples discussed.

Korsmeyer, David J.↗
NASA NTRS1970

Analysis of a Decision-Directed Receiver with Unknown Priors

A decision-directed receiver (DDR) uses previous outputs (decisions) to estimate unknown parameters and, on the basis of these estimates, modifies the detector structure for subsequent decisions. Although the DDR is less complex to instrument than other adaptive schemes, inherent in the decision-directed approach is the possibility of a runaway. This occurs when the detector commits a sequence of decision errors resulting in a degradation of parameter estimates, which, in turn, results in a further deterioration of detector performance. Because of the dependencies introduced by the learning process, runaway is difficult to analyze. In this paper, a DDR with unknown a priori probabilities is considered. The priors are estimated by the relative frequency of decisions of that event. For binary detection, it is shown that there is a positive probability of a runaway (the estimates converge to 1 or 0), which equals 1 if the signal-to-noise ratio is below a critical value. A tight bound on the probability of a runaway is obtained by approximating the learning process by a random walk with independent increments. The analysis demonstrates that a runaway is quite improbable even for moderate signal-to-noise ratios. The analysis is extended to multiple signals and to the situation where the estimates of the priors are updated continuously through exponential weighting rather than allowed to converge.

Davisson, Lee D.↗
NASA NTRS2010

Decision Engines for Software Analysis Using Satisfiability Modulo Theories Solvers

The area of software analysis, testing and verification is now undergoing a revolution thanks to the use of automated and scalable support for logical methods. A well-recognized premise is that at the core of software analysis engines is invariably a component using logical formulas for describing states and transformations between system states. The process of using this information for discovering and checking program properties (including such important properties as safety and security) amounts to automatic theorem proving. In particular, theorem provers that directly support common software constructs offer a compelling basis. Such provers are commonly called satisfiability modulo theories (SMT) solvers. Z3 is a state-of-the-art SMT solver. It is developed at Microsoft Research. It can be used to check the satisfiability of logical formulas over one or more theories such as arithmetic, bit-vectors, lists, records and arrays. The talk describes some of the technology behind modern SMT solvers, including the solver Z3. Z3 is currently mainly targeted at solving problems that arise in software analysis and verification. It has been applied to various contexts, such as systems for dynamic symbolic simulation (Pex, SAGE, Vigilante), for program verification and extended static checking (Spec#/Boggie, VCC, HAVOC), for software model checking (Yogi, SLAM), model-based design (FORMULA), security protocol code (F7), program run-time analysis and invariant generation (VS3). We will describe how it integrates support for a variety of theories that arise naturally in the context of the applications. There are several new promising avenues and the talk will touch on some of these and the challenges related to SMT solvers. Proceedings

Bjorner, Nikolaj↗
NASA NTRS2011

NASA Earth Science Image Analysis for Climate Change Decisions

This talk will briefly outline the ways in which NASA observes the Earth, then describes the NASA satellite measurements, and then proceeds to show how these measurements are used to understand the changes that are occurring as Earth's climate warms.

Hilderbrand, Peter H.↗