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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 91 records · Page 5
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
NASA NTRS1984

Trends of jet fuel demand and properties

Petroleum industry forecasts predict an increasing demand for jet fuels, a decrease in the gasoline-to-distillate (heavier fuel) demand ratio, and a greater influx of poorer quality petroleum in the next two to three decades. These projections are important for refinery product analyses. The forecasts have not been accurate, however, in predicting the recent, short term fluctuations in jet fuel and competing product demand. Changes in petroleum quality can be assessed, in part, by a review of jet fuel property inspections. Surveys covering the last 10 years show that average jet fuel freezing points, aromatic contents, and smoke points have trends toward their specification limits.

Friedman, R.↗
NASA NTRS1990

ISLE: Intelligent Selection of Loop Electronics. A CLIPS/C++/INGRES integrated application

The Intelligent Selection of Loop Electronics (ISLE) system is an integrated knowledge-based system that is used to configure, evaluate, and rank possible network carrier equipment known as Digital Loop Carrier (DLC), which will be used to meet the demands of forecasted telephone services. Determining the best carrier systems and carrier architectures, while minimizing the cost, meeting corporate policies and addressing area service demands, has become a formidable task. Network planners and engineers use the ISLE system to assist them in this task of selecting and configuring the appropriate loop electronics equipment for future telephone services. The ISLE application is an integrated system consisting of a knowledge base, implemented in CLIPS (a planner application), C++, and an object database created from existing INGRES database information. The embedibility, performance, and portability of CLIPS provided us with a tool with which to capture, clarify, and refine corporate knowledge and distribute this knowledge within a larger functional system to network planners and engineers throughout U S WEST.

Fischer, Lynn↗
NASA NTRS1976

Forty and 80 GHz technology assessment and forecast including executive summary

The results of a survey to determine current demand and to forecast growth in demand for use of the 40 and 80 GHz bands during the 1980-2000 time period are given. The current state-of-the-art is presented, as well as the technology requirements of current and projected services. Potential developments were identified, and a forecast is made. The impacts of atmospheric attenuation in the 40 and 80 GHz bands were estimated for both with and without diversity. Three services for the 1980-2000 time period -- interactive television, high quality three stereo pair audio, and 30 MB data -- are given with system requirements and up and down-link calculations.

Mazur, D. G.↗
DOE OSTI2026

Calibration of urban building energy model using smart meter data for district peak load prediction

Urban building energy modeling (UBEM) is a powerful approach to assessing baseline building energy performance and retrofits with new technologies across building stocks in cities. However, the accuracy of UBEM is often constrained by the limited availability of reliable data about building characteristics and operations, such as envelope efficiency levels, HVAC system performance, and end-use load patterns. Existing research has performed UBEM calibration using annual or monthly energy consumption data, which falls short when higher-resolution time series applications are needed, such as peak load prediction for utility operation planning. This study presents a new framework for calibrating building energy models at urban scale using smart meter data, targeting the accurate prediction of summer peak electricity loads to support robust grid planning. The framework first integrates various data sources to enhance baseline input assumptions for building models, and then calibrates the baseline models through a pattern-matching approach. A case study using CityBES and two years of AMI data from over 9000 residential customers in Portland, Oregon, demonstrated the workflow and its effectiveness. The calibrated models achieved a daily peak load mean absolute percentage error of 2.6 % during the heatwave in the calibration year, and 2.0 % in the validation year using another year of AMI data. Using the calibrated models, we analyzed the demand flexibility potential of the district building stock as an application of UBEM calibration. The findings affirm the appropriate use of UBEM for peak electric load forecasting and demand side management at the utility distribution system level.

AMI data↗
NASA NTRS1978

Survey of air cargo forecasting techniques

Forecasting techniques currently in use in estimating or predicting the demand for air cargo in various markets are discussed with emphasis on the fundamentals of the different forecasting approaches. References to specific studies are cited when appropriate. The effectiveness of current methods is evaluated and several prospects for future activities or approaches are suggested. Appendices contain summary type analyses of about 50 specific publications on forecasting, and selected bibliographies on air cargo forecasting, air passenger demand forecasting, and general demand and modalsplit modeling.

Kuhlthan, A. R.↗
NASA NTRS1979

Telecommunication service markets through the year 2000 in relation to millimeter wave satellite systems

NASA is currently conducting a series of millimeter wave satellite system market studies to develop 30/20 GHz satellite system concepts that have commercial potential. Four contractual efforts were undertaken: two parallel and independent system studies and two parallel and independent market studies. The marketing efforts are focused on forecasting the total domestic demand for long haul telecommunications services for the 1980-2000 period. Work completed to date and reported in this paper include projections of: geographical distribution of traffic; traffic volume as a function of urban area size; and user identification and forecasted demand.

Stevenson, S. M.↗
NASA NTRS2003

Developing Passenger Demand Models for International Aviation from/to Egypt: A Case Study of Cairo Airport and Egyptair

This research is concerned with developing passenger demand models for international aviation from/to Egypt. In this context, aviation sector in Egypt is represented by the biggest and main airport namely Cairo airport as well as by the main Egyptian international air carrier namely Egyptair. The developed models utilize two variables to represent aviation demand, namely total number of international flights originating from and attracted to Cairo airport as well as total number of passengers using Egyptair international flights originating from and attracted to Cairo airport. Such demand variables were related, using different functional forms, to several explanatory variables including population, GDP and number of foreign tourists. Finally, two models were selected based on their logical acceptability, best fit and statistical significance. To demonstrate usefulness of developed models, these were used to forecast future demand patterns.

Abbas, Khaled A.↗
DOE OSTI2025

Energy-efficient multimodal mobility networks in transportation digital twins: Strategies and optimization

The study proposes a comprehensive Transportation Mobility (TransitMo) framework covering conceptual design, model formulation, optimization, simulation, and impact analysis of the transportation mobility system. TransitMo is composed of a transportation digital twin developed in Simulation of Urban MObility (SUMO) and an Intelligent Traffic Management and Control Center (ITMCC) that identifies the best ways to improve the movement of people within urban areas using various modes of transportation. This study encompasses advanced modeling techniques, algorithms, and strategic testing to optimize energy efficiency and mobility in a multimodal shared mobility network. TransitMo’s practical applications are exemplified through a city-scaled simulation network in Chattanooga, TN, employing demographic data to analyze historical traffic patterns and forecast future demands. Central to this methodology are three models: the User Preference Model (UP), the Energy Consumption Model (EC), and the System Optimization Model (SO). These models work in concert to iteratively devise the optimal travel incentives and minimize the total system cost in a real-time manner. In conclusion, test results verified that the proposed adaptive incentive program and optimized bus scheduling can improve network performance by increasing public transit ridership.

42 ENGINEERING↗
NASA NTRS1973

Technology requirements for post-1985 communications satellites

The technical and functional requirements for commercial communication satellites are discussed. The need for providing quality service at an acceptable cost is emphasized. Specialized services are postulated in a needs model which forecasts future demands. This needs model is based upon 322 separately identified needs for long distance communication. It is shown that the 1985 demand for satellite communication service for a domestic region such as the United States, and surrounding sea and air lanes, may require on the order of 100,000 MHz of bandwith. This level of demand can be met by means of the presently allocated bandwidths and developing some key technologies. Suggested improvements include: (1) improving antennas so that high speed switching will be possible; (2) development of solid state transponders for 12 GHz and possibly higher frequencies; (3) development of switched or steered beam antennas with 10 db or higher gain for aircraft; and (4) continued development of improved video channel compression techniques and hardware.

Burtt, J. E.↗
NASA NTRS1984

Rural land mobile radio market assessment and satellite and terrestrial system concepts

Market potential exists; the nature of the market in terms of service needs, usage characteristics, service requirements, and forecasting the demand to the year 2000; alternative system cncepts that show promise in addressing the identified needs, in a cost effective manner; and advanced technology requirements associated with these concepts are considered.

Stevenson, S. M.↗
NASA NTRS2008

Information Requirements for Supervisory Air Traffic Controllers in Support of a Wake Vortex Departure System

Closely Space Parallel Runway (CSPR) configurations are capacity limited for departures due to the requirement to apply wake vortex separation standards from traffic departing on the adjacent parallel runway. To mitigate the effects of this constraint, a concept focusing on wind dependent departure operations has been developed, known as the Wake Turbulence Mitigation for Departures (WTMD). This concept takes advantage of the fact that crosswinds of sufficient velocity blow wakes generated by aircraft departing from the downwind runway away from the upwind runway. Consequently, under certain conditions, wake separations on the upwind runway would not be required based on wakes generated by aircraft on the downwind runway, as is currently the case. It follows that information requirements, and sources for this information, would need to be determined for airport traffic control tower (ATCT) supervisory personnel who would be charged with decisions regarding use of the procedure. To determine the information requirements, data were collected from ATCT supervisors and controller-in-charge qualified individuals at Lambert-St. Louis International Airport (STL) and George Bush Houston Intercontinental Airport (IAH). STL and IAH were chosen as data collection sites based on the implementation of a WTMD prototype system, operating in shadow mode, at these locations. The 17 total subjects (STL: 5, IAH: 12) represented a broad-base of air traffic experience. Results indicated that the following information was required to support the conduct of WTMD operations: current and forecast weather information, current and forecast traffic demand and traffic flow restrictions, and WTMD System status information and alerting. Subjects further indicated that the requisite information is currently available in the tower cab with the exception of the WTMD status and alerting. Subjects were given a demonstration of a display supporting the prototype systems and unanimously stated that the WTMD status information they felt important was represented. Overwhelmingly, subjects felt that approving, monitoring and terminating the WTMD procedure could be integrated into their supervisory workload.

Lohr, Gary W.↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

More Data Needed for Failure Rate Estimation, Validation, and Uncertainty Reduction

Current Environmental Control and Life Support System (ECLSS) development and test activities are not generating data fast enough to provide statistically-supportable precise Orbital Replacement Unit (ORU) failure rate estimates for future missions. Accurate and precise failure rate estimates are critical for missions beyond Low Earth Orbit (LEO) because current risk mitigation approaches – namely regular resupply and rapid abort capabilities – will not be available. Safe operations will depend on mission planners’ ability to accurately forecast spares demand and efficiently provide the necessary resources. However, even after more than a decade of operations on board the International Space Station (ISS), a significant amount of uncertainty remains in failure rate estimates. Uncertain or inaccurate failure rates result in increased risk and spares mass for future missions. A Bayesian failure rate estimation approach, such as the one currently implemented by the ISS Program, can help reduce uncertainty by incorporating engineering judgement into failure rate estimates. However, experience on the ISS and with other complex systems shows that these prior failure rate estimates are often inaccurate. In addition, prior failure rate estimates are typically point values; some level of uncertainty must be added to convert these into probability distributions for Bayesian updating, and there are several potential methods for doing so. Due to the low rate of data collection, these subjective (and often inaccurate) prior estimates currently have a strong influence on the end result. This paper examines the challenges associated with failure rate estimation, validation, and uncertainty reduction in the context of ECLSS development for beyond-LEO missions. A variety of techniques for generating and updating Bayesian priors are discussed and evaluated using both real-world and simulated data. Potential solutions for improving failure rate estimation, including testing additional units, are analyzed and discussed, and a set of recommendations are provided for next-generation system development activities.

Supportability↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

More Data Needed for Failure Rate Estimation, Validation, and Uncertainty Reduction

The currently planned schedule for advanced Environmental Control and Life Support System (ECLSS) development and test activities to support human exploration missions is unlikely to generate sufficient data to enable statistically-supportable, precise Orbital Replacement Unit (ORU) failure rate estimates to meet existing crew safety expectations. Accurate and precise failure rate estimates are critical for missions beyond Low Earth Orbit (LEO) because current risk mitigation approaches –namely regular resupply and rapid abort capabilities –will not be available. Safe operations will depend on mission planners’ ability to accurately forecast spares demand and efficiently provide the necessary resources. However, even after more than a decade of International Space Station (ISS) ECLSS operations, a significant amount of uncertainty remains in failure rate estimates. Uncertain or inaccurate failure rates result in increased risk and spares mass. A Bayesian estimation approach, such as the one currently implemented by the ISS Program, can reduce uncertainty by incorporating engineering judgement into failure rate estimates. However, experience on the ISS and with other complex systems shows that these prior failure rate estimates are often inaccurate. In addition, prior estimates are typically point values; some level of uncertainty must be added to convert these into probability distributions for Bayesian updating, and there are several potential methods for doing so. Due to the low rate of data collection, any inaccuracy in theseprior estimates currently hasa strong influence on the end result. This paper examines the challenges associated with failure rate estimation, validation, and uncertainty reduction in the context of ECLSS development for beyond-LEO missions. A variety of techniques for generating and updating Bayesian priors are discussed and evaluated using both real-world and simulated data. Potential solutions for improving failure rate estimation, including testing additional units, are analyzed and discussed, and a set of recommendations are provided for next-generation system development activities.

Reliability↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

More Data Needed for Failure Rate Estimation, Validation, and Uncertainty Reduction

The currently planned schedule for advanced Environmental Control and Life Support System (ECLSS) development and test activities to support human exploration missions is unlikely to generate sufficient data to enable statistically-supportable, precise Orbital Replacement Unit (ORU) failure rate estimates to meet existing crew safety expectations. Accurate and precise failure rate estimates are critical for missions beyond Low Earth Orbit (LEO) because current risk mitigation approaches –namely regular resupply and rapid abort capabilities –will not be available. Safe operations will depend on mission planners’ ability to accurately forecast spares demand and efficiently provide the necessary resources. However, even after more than a decade of International Space Station (ISS) ECLSS operations, a significant amount of uncertainty remains in failure rate estimates. Uncertain or inaccurate failure rates result in increased risk and spares mass. A Bayesian estimation approach, such as the one currently implemented by the ISS Program, can reduce uncertainty by incorporating engineering judgement into failure rate estimates. However, experience on the ISS and with other complex systems shows that these prior failure rate estimates are often inaccurate. In addition, prior estimates are typically point values; some level of uncertainty must be added to convert these into probability distributions for Bayesian updating, and there are several potential methods for doing so. Due to the low rate of data collection, any inaccuracy in theseprior estimates currently hasa strong influence on the end result. This paper examines the challenges associated with failure rate estimation, validation, and uncertainty reduction in the context of ECLSS development for beyond-LEO missions. A variety of techniques for generating and updating Bayesian priors are discussed and evaluated using both real-world and simulated data. Potential solutions for improving failure rate estimation, including testing additional units, are analyzed and discussed, and a set of recommendations are provided for next-generation system development activities.

Reliability↗
DOE OSTI2026

Generative AI in Supply Chain Management: Applications, Challenges, and Future Directions

Supply chain management (SCM) is undergoing rapid transformation due to increasing global complexity, demand volatility, and operational disruptions. Generative Artificial Intelligence (GenAI) has emerged as a powerful paradigm capable of synthesizing data, simulating operational scenarios, and enabling adaptive decision-making across supply chain networks. This paper presents a survey of GenAI’s role in SCM, focusing on its applications in predictive analytics, autonomous logistics, and fraud detection. Unlike traditional AI systems that rely primarily on predictive analytics, GenAI models, including large language models, generative adversarial networks, and diffusion-based architectures, enable the creation of synthetic supply chain scenarios and autonomous optimization strategies. This survey provides (1) a taxonomy of GenAI techniques for supply chain applications, (2) a comparative analysis of generative AI approaches with traditional machine learning, reinforcement learning, and blockchain-based methods, and (3) a discussion of key challenges such as data privacy, interpretability, and integration with legacy enterprise systems. Furthermore, we outline open research problems and propose directions for future research toward autonomous, resilient, and sustainable AI-driven supply chains.

15 - GEOTHERMAL ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2025

Day-Ahead Probabilistic Forecasting of Net-Load and Demand Response Potentials with High Penetration of Behind-the-Meter Solar-plus-Storage

The goal of this project is to develop advanced methods for day-ahead net-load forecasting, by leveraging the state-of-the-art machine learning techniques. The developed models produce both point and probabilistic forecasts for a variety of use cases, and are versatile to work with different types of data sets. The innovation lies in the novel design of the architectures, leveraging the most recent advances in machine learning that have not been explored in power systems, accompanied by techniques in the broader artificial intelligence fields such as fuzzy systems. This project has achieved the following accomplishments: (1) preprocessing of over 10 data sets covering varying geographical regions, time horizons, and system levels, which form a robust foundation for training and evaluating forecasting models across a wide range of realistic grid scenarios; (2) development of an interactive web app that enables exploratory analysis of load and generation data, and supports better understanding of data trends, anomalies, and correlations, facilitating model development and stakeholder engagement; (3) implementation of over 10 benchmark models for point and probabilistic forecasting, which include a mix of conventional machine learning methods and state-of-the-art deep learning approaches, providing a comprehensive baseline for performance comparison and validation of the proposed models; (4) development of a fuzzy system based gradient boosting model, tailored for small (less than 3 years) data sets, which achieves a mean absolute percentage error (MAPE) of 4% for point forecasting and a 20% improvement in average pinball loss for probabilistic forecasting; (5) development of a Transformer (a state-of-the-art deep learning architecture) based neural network model, tailored for large (3 years or more) data sets, which achieves a MAPE of 2% for point forecasting and a 20% improvement in average pinball loss for probabilistic forecasting; (6) development of a methodology for quantifying DR potential, and extensions of the previous models for multi-target forecasting of net load and DR potential, which achieve a MAPE of 10% for DR potential.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗
NASA NTRS1978

Electric energy demand and supply prospects for California

A recent history of electricity forecasting in California is given. Dealing with forecasts and regulatory uncertainty is discussed. Graphs are presented for: (1) Los Angeles Department of Water and Power and Pacific Gas and Electric present and projected reserve margins; (2) California electricity peak demand forecast; and (3) California electricity production.

Jones, H. G. M.↗