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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 91 records · Page 5

Explaining machine-learning models for gamma-ray detection and identification

As more complex predictive models are used for gamma-ray spectral analysis, methods are needed to probe and understand their predictions and behavior. Recent work has begun to bring the latest techniques from the field of Explainable Artificial Intelligence (XAI) into the applications of gamma-ray spectroscopy, including the introduction of gradient-based methods like saliency mapping and Gradient-weighted Class Activation Mapping (Grad-CAM), and black box methods like Local Interpretable Model-agnostic Explanations (LIME) and SHapley Additive exPlanations (SHAP). In addition, new sources of synthetic radiological data are becoming available, and these new data sets present opportunities to train models using more data than ever before. In this work, we use a neural network model trained on synthetic NaI(Tl) urban search data to compare some of these explanation methods and identify modifications that need to be applied to adapt the methods to gamma-ray spectral data. We find that the black box methods LIME and SHAP are especially accurate in their results, and recommend SHAP since it requires little hyperparameter tuning. We also propose and demonstrate a technique for generating counterfactual explanations using orthogonal projections of LIME and SHAP explanations.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗

Empowering Energy Efficiency in Existing Big-Box Retail/Grocery Stores (Final Optimization Report)

The Center for Sustainable Energy (CSE), in partnership with the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), TRC Energy Services, P2S Engineering Inc, Walmart, and five innovative technology providers, are to demonstrate the impact of an integrated suite of pre-commercial energy efficiency (EE) technologies in a large, existing, retail building located within an inland disadvantaged community. Proposed technology packages include three categories of advanced EE solutions: heating, ventilating, air-conditioning, and refrigerating (HVAC/R); lighting; and integrated system and building level controls. The project is designed to impact Walmart’s future store specifications, which can be replicated and deployed in other buildings across California with similar end-use and system characteristics. The following lists the technologies considered for this project: DualCool (HVAC evaporative cooling); Software Motor Company (SMC) (HVAC and refrigeration fan motor); I2S: DC LED lighting; LocBit: building energy management and optimization; Saya: water monitoring.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

Catalog-level blinding on the bispectrum for DESI-like galaxy surveys

We evaluate the performance of the catalog-level blind analysis technique (blinding) presented in Brieden et al. (2020) in the context of a fixed template power spectrum and bispectrum analysis. This blinding scheme, which is tailored for galaxy redshift surveys similar to the Dark Energy Spectroscopic Instrument (DESI), has two components: the so-called “AP blinding” (concerning the dilation parameters α$_{∥}$, α$_{⊥}$) and “RSD blinding” (redshift space distortions, affecting the growth rate parameter f). Through extensive testing, including checks for the RSD part in cubic boxes, the impact of AP blinding on mocks with realistic survey sky coverage, and the implementation of a full AP+RSD blinding pipeline, our analysis demonstrates the effectiveness of the technique in preserving the integrity of cosmological parameter estimation when the analysis includes the bispectrum statistic. We emphasize the critical role of sophisticated — and difficult to accidentally unblind — blinding methods in precision cosmology.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

DQ Admittance Extraction for Inverter-Based Resources

The power grid industry is pushing for electromagnetic transient (EMT)-based studies for generation interconnection and planning process due to high penetrations of inverter-based resource (IBRs). Vendor-specific and site-specific black-box IBR models are preferred in those simulation studies. For small-signal analysis, measurement-based admittance models are necessary. In this paper, we demonstrate the extraction of frequency-domain dq frame IBR models. These linear models are specific to operating conditions. We demonstrate two extraction methods: frequency scan and a step response-based method. The latter relies on converting time-domain responses to Laplace-domain expressions via eigensystem realization analysis (ERA). Both can lead to dq admittance representation and the latter is time saving.

admittance model↗

DQ Admittance Extraction for Inverter-Based Resources: Preprint

The power grid industry is pushing for electro-magnetic transient (EMT)-based studies for generation interconnection and planning process due to high penetrations of inverter-based resource (IBRs). Vendor-specific and site-specific black-box IBR models are preferred in those simulation studies. For small-signal analysis, measurement-based admittance models are necessary. In this paper, we demonstrate the extraction of frequency-domain dq frame IBR models. These linear models are specific to operating conditions. We demonstrate two extraction methods: frequency scan and a step response-based method. The latter relies on converting time-domain responses to Laplace-domain expressions via eigensystem realization analysis (ERA). Both can lead to dq admittance representation and the latter is time saving.

admittance model↗

ReaxFF reactive force field model enables accurate prediction of physiochemical and mechanical properties of crystalline and amorphous shape‐memory polyurethane

Abstract We investigate reactive force field (ReaxFF) prediction of physiochemical and mechanical properties, and stimuli response behavior of a shape‐memory polyurethane (SMPU) rigid segment. We used SMPUs as a platform to link the rigid/hard segment domain crystallinity with properties that can also be experimentally measured. Specifically, we developed models for crystalline and amorphous forms of a common rigid segment of SMPUs, for example, 4,4′‐diphenylmethane diisocyanate (MDI) with n‐butanediol (BDO), denoted as MDI‐BDO. ReaxFF molecular dynamics simulations with equilibrium dynamics are performed by controlling mass, temperature, and pressure or volume to predict the structural and physiochemical properties of crystalline and amorphous rigid segments of SMPU systems, followed by simulating their XRD and FTIR patterns, respectively. Non‐equilibrium ReaxFF simulations are implemented by using uniaxial box deformation technique to study response‐behavior of crystalline SMPU under tensile loading and during stress‐relaxation. The model and simulation scheme presented in this study demonstrates a robust theoretical pathway toward application‐dictated, on‐demand design of high‐performance SMPUs in applications such as soft robotics.

Afroz, Mohammad M.↗

Investigation of hydrometeorological influences on reservoir releases using explainable machine learning methods

Long short-term memory (LSTM) networks have demonstrated successful applications in accurately and efficiently predicting reservoir releases from hydrometeorological drivers including reservoir storage, inflow, precipitation, and temperature. However, due to its black-box nature and lack of process-based implementation, we are unsure whether LSTM makes good predictions for the right reasons. In this work, we use an explainable machine learning (ML) method, called SHapley Additive exPlanations (SHAP), to evaluate the variable importance and variable-wise temporal importance in the LSTM model prediction. In application to 30 reservoirs over the Upper Colorado River Basin, United States, we show that LSTM can accurately predict the reservoir releases with NSE ≥ 0.69 for all the considered reservoirs despite of their diverse storage sizes, functionality, elevations, etc. Additionally, SHAP indicates that storage and inflow are more influential than precipitation and temperature. Moreover, the storage and inflow show a relatively long-term influence on the release up to 7 days and this influence decreases as the lag time increases for most reservoirs. These findings from SHAP are consistent with our physical understanding. However, in a few reservoirs, SHAP gives some temporal importances that are difficult to interpret from a hydrological point of view, probably because of its ignorance of the variable interactions. SHAP is a useful tool for black-box ML model explanations, but the hydrological processes inferred from its results should be interpreted cautiously. More investigations of SHAP and its applications in hydrological modeling is needed and will be pursued in our future study.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

A system identification approach for non-intrusive reduced order modeling of radiation-induced photocurrents

In this study, development of compact photocurrent models is currently dominated by analytical techniques that rely on physical assumptions to render the governing equations solvable in a closed form. Violation of these assumptions can reduce the accuracy of the models and/or limit their scope. In this paper we show that system identification of nonlinear state-space systems can serve as an alternative numerical basis for non-intrusive reduced order modeling of photocurrent effects. To that end we develop a compact gray box photocurrent model (GBPM) by using a state-space representation with a low-dimensional latent state equation that mimics a mathematical model for the response of an idealized class of devices to ionizing radiation. In so doing we obtain a model that learns the dynamics of a quantity of interest directly from its measurements without requiring snapshots of the internal device state or its discretized model, and can be inferred from very small data sets. To demonstrate the approach we train the GBPM using a small experimental data set for a Z5236 Zener diode and a small synthetic data set obtained by simulating a synthetic pn-junction device. We then compare the GBPMs with black box models trained on the same data and show that performance of the latter is limited by the size of the data set, while the former are able to achieve excellent performance in both the reproductive and the predictive regimes.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Explainable deep learning for insights in El Niño and river flows

The El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is a semi-periodic fluctuation in sea surface temperature (SST) over the tropical central and eastern Pacific Ocean that influences interannual variability in regional hydrology across the world through long-range dependence or teleconnections. Recent research has demonstrated the value of Deep Learning (DL) methods for improving ENSO prediction as well as Complex Networks (CN) for understanding teleconnections. However, gaps in predictive understanding of ENSO-driven river flows include the black box nature of DL, the use of simple ENSO indices to describe a complex phenomenon and translating DL-based ENSO predictions to river flow predictions. Here we show that eXplainable DL (XDL) methods, based on saliency maps, can extract interpretable predictive information contained in global SST and discover SST information regions and dependence structures relevant for river flows which, in tandem with climate network constructions, enable improved predictive understanding. Our results reveal additional information content in global SST beyond ENSO indices, develop understanding of how SSTs influence river flows, and generate improved river flow prediction, including uncertainty estimation. Observations, reanalysis data, and earth system model simulations are used to demonstrate the value of the XDL-CN based methods for future interannual and decadal scale climate projections.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Conceptual Designs of the Structure of Inflatable Blades for Enabling Larger Turbines

Over the last couple of decades, increasingly larger rotor diameters have enabled significant reductions in the levelized cost of energy for wind through higher energy capture and improved capacity factors. But for onshore turbines, this has been met with manufacturing and transportation challenges. To enable larger onshore rotors, an innovative inflatable blade concept is investigated that employs both traditional and onsite manufacturing. The design architecture consists primarily of an inflatable aerodynamic shell attached to a factory-manufactured primary structure. Multiple architectures, cross-sectional topologies, and material combinations for the primary structure are investigated, as well as multiple skin materials. Structural cross-sectional characteristics are compared to a traditional blade, and inflatability and cost evaluations are presented. Results show that a box-beam architecture using only composite materials yields significant mass reduction with mature technologies/processes and modest cost decrease compared to traditional blade construction. This low-TRL study demonstrates the inflatable blade concept's techno-economic potential.

49 EE - Wind and Water Power Program - Wind (EE-4W↗

Calibration of the liquid argon ionization response to low energy electronic and nuclear recoils with DarkSide-50

DarkSide-50 has demonstrated the high potential of dual-phase liquid argon time projection chambers in exploring interactions of WIMPs in the GeV=c 2 mass range. The technique, based on the detection of the ionization signal amplified via electroluminescence in the gas phase, allows us to explore recoil energies down to the sub-keV range. We report here on the DarkSide-50 measurement of the ionization yield of electronic recoils down to ~180 eV er , exploiting 37 Ar and 39 Ar decays, and extrapolated to a few ionization electrons with the Thomas-Imel box model. Further, we present a model-dependent determination of the ionization response to nuclear recoils down to ~500 eV nr , the lowest ever achieved in liquid argon, using in situ neutron calibration sources and external datasets from neutron beam experiments.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗

Resolve instrument onboard XRISM: design, integration, and instrument test results

The Resolve instrument onboard the X-Ray Imaging and Spectroscopy Mission (XRISM) consists of an array of 6 × 6 silicon-thermistor microcalorimeters cooled down to 50 mK and a high-throughput X-ray mirror assembly (XMA) with a focal length of 5.6 m. XRISM is a recovery mission of ASTRO-H/Hitomi, and the Resolve instrument is a rebuild of the ASTRO-H Soft X-ray spectrometer (SXS) and the Soft X-ray Telescope (SXT) that achieved energy resolution of ∼ 5 eV FWHM on orbit, with several important changes based on lessons learned from ASTRO-H. The flight models of the Dewar and the electronics boxes were fabricated, and the instrument test and calibration were conducted in 2021. By tuning the cryocooler frequencies, energy resolution better than 4.9 eV FWHM at 6 keV was demonstrated for all 36 pixels and high-resolution grade events, as well as energy-scale accuracy better than 2 eV up to 30 keV. The immunity of the detectors to microvibration, electrical conduction, and radiation was evaluated. The instrument was delivered to the spacecraft system in April 2022. The XMA was tested and calibrated separately. Its angular resolution is 1.27′, and the effective area of the mirror itself is 570 cm 2 at 1 keV and 424 cm 2 at 6 keV. We report the design and the major changes from the ASTRO-H SXS, the integration, and the results of the instrument test.

X-ray↗

Embedding physics domain knowledge into a Bayesian network enables layer-by-layer process innovation for photovoltaics

Process optimization of photovoltaic devices is a time-intensive, trial-and-error endeavor, which lacks full transparency of the underlying physics and relies on user-imposed constraints that may or may not lead to a global optimum. Herein, we demonstrate that embedding physics domain knowledge into a Bayesian network enables an optimization approach for gallium arsenide (GaAs) solar cells that identifies the root cause(s) of underperformance with layer-by-layer resolution and reveals alternative optimal process windows beyond traditional black-box optimization. Our Bayesian network approach links a key GaAs process variable (growth temperature) to material descriptors (bulk and interface properties, e.g., bulk lifetime, doping, and surface recombination) and device performance parameters (e.g., cell efficiency). For this purpose, we combine a Bayesian inference framework with a neural network surrogate device-physics model that is 100× faster than numerical solvers. With the trained surrogate model and only a small number of experimental samples, our approach reduces significantly the time-consuming intervention and characterization required by the experimentalist. As a demonstration of our method, in only five metal organic chemical vapor depositions, we identify a superior growth temperature profile for the window, bulk, and back surface field layer of a GaAs solar cell, without any secondary measurements, and demonstrate a 6.5% relative AM1.5G efficiency improvement above traditional grid search methods.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

Explainable tokamak-agnostic forecasting of fusion plasma instability via megahertz turbulent fluctuations

Scientific applications of artificial intelligence (AI) often remain limited by device-specific training and unexplained “black-box” approaches, creating fundamental barriers to cross-system generalization. This challenge is critical for nuclear fusion, where future reactors will have limited operational data for AI training. Here, we demonstrate that our neural network, trained solely on megahertz-scale turbulence measurements from one machine (DIII-D), forecasts Type-I edge localized mode (ELM) onsets in a different tokamak (KSTAR) through zero-shot weight transfer following physics-consistent preprocessing without device-specific retraining. Through an explainable AI framework combining gradient-weighted class activation mapping with physics validation, we reveal that our network can internalize physics relationships governing the ELM instabilities rather than memorizing device-specific patterns. The network perceives spatiotemporal features that correlate consistently with independently calculated instability growth rates, magnetohydrodynamic stability limits, and pedestal structure dynamics. Statistical analyses of dimensionally-reduced saliency features reveal the identical triangular features between the saliency representations, instability growth rates, and prediction probability across tokamaks, providing evidence that our forecasting system can show tokamak-agnostic generalization. This work contributes to a foundation for explainable scientific AI systems, where cross-system developments are essential for transcending traditional domain-specific constraints.

AI↗

Cubesat system

Small cubesat systems may be available for a lower cost, have a higher reliability, and be much simpler to use than conventional cubesats. A complete turnkey system solution may be provided, including the ground station and remote field units. The satellite, ground station, and field unit may be provided separately as kits that are ready to go out-of-the-box as soon as they arrive. This enables universities, researchers, and hobbyists to obtain and deploy their own functional satellites. Furthermore, theoretical designs and functionality may be rapidly prototyped and demonstrated, which allows for proof-of-concept without needing to build a larger, more expensive satellite system and hope that the new design or functionality works as intended.

Judd, Stephen↗

GPU-accelerated DNS of compressible turbulent flows

Here, this paper explores strategies to transform an existing CPU-based high-performance computational fluid dynamics solver, HyPar, for compressible flow simulations on emerging exascale heterogeneous (CPU+GPU) computing platforms. The scientific motivation for developing a GPU-enhanced version of HyPar is to simulate canonical turbulent flows at the highest resolution possible on such platforms. We show that optimizing memory operations and thread blocks results in 200x speedup of computationally intensive kernels compared with a CPU core. Using multiple GPUs and CUDA-aware MPI communication, we demonstrate both strong and weak scaling of our GPU-based HyPar implementation on the NVIDIA Volta V100 GPUs. We simulate the decay of homogeneous isotropic turbulence in a triply periodic box on grids with up to 1024 3 points (5.3 billion degrees of freedom) and on up to 1,024 GPUs. We compare the wall times for CPU-only and CPU+GPU simulations. The results presented in the paper are obtained on the Summit and Lassen supercomputers at Oak Ridge and Lawrence Livermore National Laboratories, respectively.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Adaptive experimental design for multi-fidelity surrogate modeling of multi-disciplinary systems

We present an adaptive algorithm for constructing surrogate models of multi-disciplinary systems composed of a set of coupled components. With this goal we introduce “coupling” variables with a priori unknown distributions that allow surrogates of each component to be built independently. Once built, the surrogates of the components are combined to form an integrated-surrogate that can be used to predict system-level quantities of interest at a fraction of the cost of the original model. The error in the integrated-surrogate is greedily minimized using an experimental design procedure that allocates the amount of training data, used to construct each component-surrogate, based on the contribution of those surrogates to the error of the integrated-surrogate. Here, the multi-fidelity procedure presented is a generalization of multi-index stochastic collocation that can leverage ensembles of models of varying cost and accuracy, for one or more components, to reduce the computational cost of constructing the integrated-surrogate. Extensive numerical results demonstrate that, for a fixed computational budget, our algorithm is able to produce surrogates that are orders of magnitude more accurate than methods that treat the integrated system as a black-box.

42 ENGINEERING↗

A survey of unsupervised learning methods for high-dimensional uncertainty quantification in black-box-type problems

Constructing surrogate models for uncertainty quantification (UQ) on complex partial differential equations (PDEs) having inherently high-dimensional O(10 n ), n ≥ 2, stochastic inputs (e.g., forcing terms, boundary conditions, initial conditions) poses tremendous challenges. The “curse of dimensionality” can be addressed with suitable unsupervised learning techniques used as a pre-processing tool to encode inputs onto lower-dimensional subspaces while retaining its structural information and meaningful properties. In this work, we review and investigate thirteen dimension reduction methods including linear and nonlinear, spectral, blind source separation, convex and non-convex methods and utilize the resulting embeddings to construct a mapping to quantities of interest via polynomial chaos expansions (PCE). Here, we refer to the general proposed approach as manifold PCE (m-PCE), where manifold corresponds to the latent space resulting from any of the studied dimension reduction methods. To investigate the capabilities and limitations of these methods we conduct numerical tests for three physics-based systems (treated as black-boxes) having high-dimensional stochastic inputs of varying complexity modeled as both Gaussian and non-Gaussian random fields to investigate the effect of the intrinsic dimensionality of input data. We demonstrate both the advantages and limitations of the unsupervised learning methods and we conclude that a suitable m-PCE model provides a cost-effective approach compared to alternative algorithms proposed in the literature, including recently proposed expensive deep neural network-based surrogates and can be readily applied for high-dimensional UQ in stochastic PDEs.

42 ENGINEERING↗