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Finite-difference fluid dynamics computer mathematical models for the design and interpretation of experiments for space flight

Numerical methods are used to design a spherical baroclinic flow model experiment of the large scale atmosphere flow for Spacelab. The dielectric simulation of radial gravity is only dominant in a low gravity environment. Computer codes are developed to study the processes at work in crystal growing systems which are also candidates for space flight. Crystalline materials rarely achieve their potential properties because of imperfections and component concentration variations. Thermosolutal convection in the liquid melt can be the cause of these imperfections. Such convection is suppressed in a low gravity environment. Two and three dimensional finite difference codes are being used for this work. Nonuniform meshes and implicit iterative methods are used. The iterative method for steady solutions is based on time stepping but has the options of different time steps for velocity and temperature and of a time step varying smoothly with position according to specified powers of the mesh spacings. This allows for more rapid convergence. The code being developed for the crystal growth studies allows for growth of the crystal as the solid-liquid interface. The moving interface is followed using finite differences; shape variations are permitted. For convenience in applying finite differences in the solid and liquid, a time dependent coordinate transformation is used to make this interface a coordinate surface.

Roberts, G. O.↗

Inverse regression for ridge recovery: a data-driven approach for parameter reduction in computer experiments

Parameter reduction can enable otherwise infeasible design and uncertainty studies with modern computational science models that contain several input parameters. In statistical regression, techniques for sufficient dimension reduction (SDR) use data to reduce the predictor dimension of a regression problem. A computational scientist hoping to use SDR for parameter reduction encounters a problem: a computer prediction is best represented by a deterministic function of the inputs, so data comprised of computer simulation queries fail to satisfy the SDR assumptions. To address this problem, here we interpret SDR methods sliced inverse regression (SIR) and sliced average variance estimation (SAVE) as estimating the directions of a ridge function, which is a composition of a low-dimensional linear transformation with a nonlinear function. Within this interpretation, SIR and SAVE estimate matrices of integrals whose column spaces are contained in the ridge directions’ span; we analyze and numerically verify convergence of these column spaces as the number of computer model queries increases. Moreover, we show example functions that are not ridge functions but whose inverse conditional moment matrices are low-rank. Consequently, the computational scientist should beware when using SIR and SAVE for parameter reduction, since SIR and SAVE may mistakenly suggest that truly important directions are unimportant.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

DUNE Offline Computing Conceptual Design Report

This document describes Offline Software and Computing for the Deep Underground Neutrino Experiment (DUNE) experiment, in particular, the conceptual design of the offline computing needed to accomplish its physics goals. Our emphasis in this document is the development of the computing infrastructure needed to acquire, catalog, reconstruct, simulate and analyze the data from the DUNE experiment and its prototypes. In this effort, we concentrate on developing the tools and systems that facilitate the development and deployment of advanced algorithms. Rather than prescribing particular algorithms, our goal is to provide resources that are flexible and accessible enough to support creative software solutions as HEP computing evolves and to provide computing that achieves the physics goals of the DUNE experiment.

46 INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND ↗

Designers' models of the human-computer interface

Understanding design models of the human-computer interface (HCI) may produce two types of benefits. First, interface development often requires input from two different types of experts: human factors specialists and software developers. Given the differences in their backgrounds and roles, human factors specialists and software developers may have different cognitive models of the HCI. Yet, they have to communicate about the interface as part of the design process. If they have different models, their interactions are likely to involve a certain amount of miscommunication. Second, the design process in general is likely to be guided by designers' cognitive models of the HCI, as well as by their knowledge of the user, tasks, and system. Designers do not start with a blank slate; rather they begin with a general model of the object they are designing. The author's approach to a design model of the HCI was to have three groups make judgments of categorical similarity about the components of an interface: human factors specialists with HCI design experience, software developers with HCI design experience, and a baseline group of computer users with no experience in HCI design. The components of the user interface included both display components such as windows, text, and graphics, and user interaction concepts, such as command language, editing, and help. The judgments of the three groups were analyzed using hierarchical cluster analysis and Pathfinder. These methods indicated, respectively, how the groups categorized the concepts, and network representations of the concepts for each group. The Pathfinder analysis provides greater information about local, pairwise relations among concepts, whereas the cluster analysis shows global, categorical relations to a greater extent.

Gillan, Douglas J.↗

Adaptive learning-driven high-throughput synthesis of oxygen reduction reaction Fe–N–C electrocatalysts

Reducing human reliance on inefficient energy systems and fossil fuels has become more urgent due to the consequences of global climate change. However, traditional trial-and-error approaches have hampered our ability to accelerate the discovery and implementation of functional materials for efficient energy conversion devices, such as polymer electrolyte fuel cells (PEFCs). To address this, we develop an adaptive learning framework that integrates machine learning and state-of-the-art capabilities in high-throughput synthesis to achieve expedited optimization of iron-nitrogen-carbon PEFC oxygen reduction reaction (ORR) electrocatalysts. We use statistical inference, uncertainty quantification, and global optimization to build a computational design-of-experiment tool that identifies the optimum compositions to be investigated next to reduce the demands placed on experimental materials discovery. We benchmark the ability of the proposed strategy to discover optimum catalyst synthesis conditions in a six-dimensional search space when starting with a thirty-six-sample database. By following the adaptive learning strategy, we synthesize fourteen new catalysts from approximately ten billion unique compositions and discover four catalysts that outperform all original samples. The best machine learning-optimized catalyst is 33% more active than the highest-performing one in the initial database, showing an ORR activity seven times larger than those typically reported for the same class of materials.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Analyzing Stochastic Computer Models: A Review with Opportunities

In modern science, computer models are often used to understand complex phenomena and a thriving statistical community has grown around analyzing them. This review aims to bring a spotlight to the growing prevalence of stochastic computer models-providing a catalogue of statistical methods for practitioners, an introductory view for statisticians (whether familiar with deterministic computer models or not), and an emphasis on open questions of relevance to practitioners and statisticians. Gaussian process surrogate models take center stage in this review, and these, along with several extensions needed for stochastic settings, are explained. The basic issues of designing a stochastic computer experiment and calibrating a stochastic computer model are prominent in the discussion. Instructive examples, with data and code, are used to describe the implementation of, and results from, various methods.

agent based model↗

Nuclide inventory characterization of EBR-II MOX fuel test pins

Characterization of 3 mixed oxide (MOX) fuel pins from the Experimental Breeder Reactor II (EBR-II) SPA-2/-2B experiment program was performed in support of the Advanced Reactor Experiments for Sodium Fast Reactor Fuels (ARES) joint project between Idaho National Laboratory (INL) and the Japan Atomic Energy Agency (JAEA). The characterization efforts were performed to enable transient testing in the Transient Reactor Test (TREAT) facility at INL and will include post irradiation examination (PIE) and other analyses. MOX fuel pins UW02009, 02011, and 06024 were historically irradiated from 1989 to 1994 for a total of 822.42 effective full power days (EFPDs) and peak burnup of approximately 14.3 at.% (atomic percent of heavy metal atoms, ∼134.4 GWd/t). They had since been placed in storage until a future use was identified. Characterization of the fission products and activation of each fuel pin was necessary to enable removal from storage and subsequent irradiation testing or PIE activities. The initial fuel pin geometry and composition were established using historical documentation. Irradiation history details were utilized to compute irradiated and decayed fuel pin masses, atomic densities, and activities. A pellet-wise axial neutron flux was also computed to assist in evaluation of the axial distribution of {sup 235}U and {sup 239}Pu, per pellet, within each of the test fuel pins. The results computed herein supported experiment design for advanced high-burnup MOX fuel designs under slow transient overpower (MOXTOP) conditions, which was Phase I of the ARES project. (authors)

21 SPECIFIC NUCLEAR REACTORS AND ASSOCIATED PLANTS↗

Investigating the Dynamic Compaction Behavior of Brittle Powders

The compression of porous materials to full density is a complex physical and mechanical process. Modeling efforts to capture the compaction behavior of distended solids (e.g., porous materials or powders) have produced a variety of compaction models, each functionalized to address specific compaction mechanisms. Of the available models, those suited for high-strain-rate deformation associated with shock loading have generally been developed for ductile materials. Compaction models for brittle materials have only been developed for quasistatic loading conditions. No predictive models currently exist that successfully capture the physical processes and mechanics for shock compaction of brittle distended materials, such as sand and oxide powders. The primary hindrance in producing a dynamic compaction model for brittle distended materials is the lack of availability of high-fidelity, high-precision shock compaction data for validation. The proposed work is aimed at alleviating this issue by developing a high-precision testing method in combination with high-fidelity analysis methods to accurately and precisely determine the shocked state of an ideal test material, ceria powder, under uniaxial strain dynamic compaction. The measured shock compaction data from these brittle powder experiments is then used in initial computations to design a cylindrically converging shock compaction experiment within situ time-resolved shocked density measurements, employing proton radiography. The preliminary experimental and computational results obtained from these uniaxial strain dynamic compaction and cylindrically converging shock compaction experiments are presented. An experimental and computational path forwards to predictive model development is then proposed.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Enhancing approximate modular Bayesian inference by emulating the conditional posterior

In modular Bayesian analyses, complex models are composed of distinct modules, each representing different aspects of the data or prior information. In this context, fully Bayesian approaches can sometimes lead to undesirable feedback between modules, compromising the integrity of the inference. The “cut-distribution” prevents unwanted influence between modules by “cutting” feedback. The direct sampling (DS) algorithm is standard practice for approximating the cut-distribution, but it can be computationally intensive, especially when the number of imputations required is large. An enhanced method is proposed, the Emulating the Conditional Posterior (ECP) algorithm, which leverages emulation to increase the number of imputations. Through numerical experiment it is demonstrated that the ECP algorithm outperforms the traditional DS approach in terms of accuracy and computational efficiency, particularly when resources are constrained. Here, it is also shown how the DS algorithm can be improved using ideas from design of experiments. Some practical recommendations are given for algorithm choice in modular Bayesian analyses.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Computational design of short pulse laser driven iron opacity experiments

Here, the resolution of current disagreements between solar parameters calculated from models and observations would benefit from the experimental validation of theoretical opacity models. Iron's complex ionic structure and large contribution to the opacity in the radiative zone of the sun make iron a good candidate for validation. Short pulse lasers can be used to heat buried layer targets to plasma conditions comparable to the radiative zone of the sun, and the frequency dependent opacity can be inferred from the target's measured x-ray emission. Target and laser parameters must be optimized to reach specific plasma conditions and meet x-ray emission requirements. The HYDRA radiation hydrodynamics code is used to investigate the effects of modifying laser irradiance and target dimensions on the plasma conditions, x-ray emission, and inferred opacity of iron and iron-magnesium buried layer targets. It was determined that plasma conditions are dominantly controlled by the laser energy and the tamper thickness. The accuracy of the inferred opacity is sensitive to tamper emission and optical depth effects. Experiments at conditions relevant to the radiative zone of the sun would investigate the validity of opacity theories important to resolving disagreements between solar parameters calculated from models and observations.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

An Open Computing Infrastructure that Facilitates Integrated Product and Process Development from a Decision-Based Perspective

Computer applications for design have evolved rapidly over the past several decades, and significant payoffs are being achieved by organizations through reductions in design cycle times. These applications are overwhelmed by the requirements imposed during complex, open engineering systems design. Organizations are faced with a number of different methodologies, numerous legacy disciplinary tools, and a very large amount of data. Yet they are also faced with few interdisciplinary tools for design collaboration or methods for achieving the revolutionary product designs required to maintain a competitive advantage in the future. These organizations are looking for a software infrastructure that integrates current corporate design practices with newer simulation and solution techniques. Such an infrastructure must be robust to changes in both corporate needs and enabling technologies. In addition, this infrastructure must be user-friendly, modular and scalable. This need is the motivation for the research described in this dissertation. The research is focused on the development of an open computing infrastructure that facilitates product and process design. In addition, this research explicitly deals with human interactions during design through a model that focuses on the role of a designer as that of decision-maker. The research perspective here is taken from that of design as a discipline with a focus on Decision-Based Design, Theory of Languages, Information Science, and Integration Technology. Given this background, a Model of IPPD is developed and implemented along the lines of a traditional experimental procedure: with the steps of establishing context, formalizing a theory, building an apparatus, conducting an experiment, reviewing results, and providing recommendations. Based on this Model, Design Processes and Specification can be explored in a structured and implementable architecture. An architecture for exploring design called DREAMS (Developing Robust Engineering Analysis Models and Specifications) has been developed which supports the activities of both meta-design and actual design execution. This is accomplished through a systematic process which is comprised of the stages of Formulation, Translation, and Evaluation. During this process, elements from a Design Specification are integrated into Design Processes. In addition, a software infrastructure was developed and is called IMAGE (Intelligent Multidisciplinary Aircraft Generation Environment). This represents a virtual apparatus in the Design Experiment conducted in this research. IMAGE is an innovative architecture because it explicitly supports design-related activities. This is accomplished through a GUI driven and Agent-based implementation of DREAMS. A HSCT design has been adopted from the Framework for Interdisciplinary Design Optimization (FIDO) and is implemented in IMAGE. This problem shows how Design Processes and Specification interact in a design system. In addition, the problem utilizes two different solution models concurrently: optimal and satisfying. The satisfying model allows for more design flexibility and allows a designer to maintain design freedom. As a result of following this experimental procedure, this infrastructure is an open system that it is robust to changes in both corporate needs and computer technologies. The development of this infrastructure leads to a number of significant intellectual contributions: 1) A new approach to implementing IPPD with the aid of a computer; 2) A formal Design Experiment; 3) A combined Process and Specification architecture that is language-based; 4) An infrastructure for exploring design; 5) An integration strategy for implementing computer resources; and 6) A seamless modeling language. The need for these contributions is emphasized by the demand by industry and government agencies for the development of these technologies.

Hale, Mark A.↗

ORNL S/U Capabilities for Critical Experiment Design [Slides]

This presentation is on the Oak Ridge National Labatory (ORNL) S/U capabilities for critical experiment design. It covers a brief intro to TSUNAMI analysis for NCS validation. Additionally, it shows similarity indices and historical use of TSUNAMI for critical experiment design. It concludes with recent designs: IER-441, IER-304, and IER-554 (on-going).

96 KNOWLEDGE MANAGEMENT AND PRESERVATION↗

Beyond Mechanism Design

The field of mechanism design is concerned with setting (incentives superimposed on) the utility functions of a group of players so as to induce desirable joint behavior of those players. It arose in the context of traditional equilibrium game theory applied to games involving human players. This has led it to have many implicit restrictions, which strongly limits its scope. In particular, it ignores many issues that are crucial for systems that are large (and therefore far off-equilibrium in general) and/or composed of non-human players (e.g., computer-based agents). This also means it has concentrated on issues that are often irrelevant in those broader domains (e.g., incentive compatibility). This paper illustrates these shortcomings by reviewing some of the recent theoretical work on the design of collectives, a body of work that constitutes a substantial broadening of mechanism design. It then presents computer experiments based on a recently suggested nanotechnology testbed that demonstrates the power of that extended version of mechanism design.

Wolpert, David H.↗

Optimization of Multi-Fidelity Computer Experiments via the EQIE Criterion

Computer experiments based on mathematical models are powerful tools for understanding physical processes. This article addresses the problem of kriging-based optimization for deterministic computer experiments with tunable accuracy. Our approach is to use multi- delity computer experiments with increasing accuracy levels and a nonstationary Gaussian process model. We propose an optimization scheme that sequentially adds new computer runs by following two criteria. The first criterion, called EQI, scores candidate inputs with given level of accuracy, and the second criterion, called EQIE, scores candidate combinations of inputs and accuracy. Here, from simulation results and a real example using finite element analysis, our method out-performs the expected improvement (EI) criterion which works for single-accuracy experiments.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Payload crew training scheduler (PACTS) user's manual

The operation of the payload specialist training scheduler (PACTS) is discussed in this user's manual which is used to schedule payload specialists for mission training on the Spacelab experiments. The PACTS program is a fully automated interactive, computerized scheduling program equipped with tutorial displays. The tutorial displays are sufficiently detailed for use by a program analyst having no computer experience. The PACTS program is designed to operate on the UNIVAC 1108 computer system, and has the capability to load output into a PDP 11/45 Interactive Graphics Display System for printing schedules. The program has the capacity to handle up to three overlapping Spacelab missions.

Shipman, D. L.↗

Bayesian D‐Optimal Designs for Gaussian Process Surrogate Models

Computer experiments often employ space-filling strategies to create surrogate models with strong predictive performance. The impact of model parameter estimation for Gaussian process surrogates, however, is often overlooked. Obtaining a better initial estimate of the covariance lengthscale parameter, θ, can greatly improve the resulting Gaussian process fit through more effective sequential acquisitions during active learning. In this work, we propose a novel initial design maximizing the Bayesian D-optimality criterion of the Gaussian process lengthscale parameter. Previously published results have shown the emphasis on lengthscale estimation to be promising, but relied on an empirically driven design creation process. Our Bayesian D-optimal designs are rooted in information theory and lead to more informative sequential acquisitions by improving lengthscale estimation. In many cases, these gains eventually result in better surrogates than those seeded with space-filling initial designs. Furthermore, Bayesian D-optimal designs can be tailored to either isotropic or anisotropic covariance structures, and the Bayesian framework enables the inclusion of prior knowledge in the design process, offering greater flexibility and adaptability. Through several simulation studies, we demonstrate the advantages of Bayesian D-optimal designs in terms of both lengthscale estimation accuracy and predictive performance during active learning.

Bayesian experimental design↗

Rapidly Assessing the Quality of Targeted Proteomics Experiments through Monitoring Stable-Isotope Labeled Standards

Selected reaction monitoring (SRM), also known as multiple reaction monitoring (MRM), is a data acquisition technique used in targeted analysis of molecules, including targeted proteomic studies. It exploits the unique capability of triple-quadrupole (QQQ) mass spectrometers to monitor the predefined precursor and fragment ion pairs of specific molecules of interest throughout a liquid chromatography (LC) elution profile. Compared to shotgun proteomics, targeted proteomics using SRM has high selectivity, high sensitivity, and a wide linear dynamic range,(1-3) which makes it especially useful in the accurate and reproducible quantification of low-abundance proteins in highly complex biological samples. SRM has been widely used in the fields of biomarker discovery,(4-7) analysis of protein post-translational modifications(8) and characterization of biological protein networks.(4,9) In the recent years, multiple technical advances have greatly improved the throughput of SRM analyses, allowing for the quantification of hundreds of peptides in a single analysis.(6,7,10) For example, a single 800-plex SRM assay (e.g., 400 unlabeled and heavy-labeled peptide pairs and 2400 transitions with retention time scheduling) using ultrahigh-performance liquid chromatography (UHPLC) has been developed to quantify proteins in plasma.(11) Advanced labeling techniques utilizing in vitro proteome-assisted MRM for protein absolute quantification (iMPAQT) demonstrated the capability of SRM in genome-wide protein quantification of over 18?000 human proteins.(12) Moreover, the scan speed of QQQ instrumentation has been greatly improved in recent releases of commercial instrumentation. The newly developed TSQ Altis (released in 2017) can scan more than 600 transitions per second, which is 6 times more than a traditional QQQ scan speed of 100 transitions per second. The breadth of measurement enabled by these technological improvements to QQQ mass spectrometry has increased the feasibility and popularity of large scale targeted proteomics studies,(13) a major application of which will be in clinical studies in which up to hundreds of protein candidates need to be quantified in hundreds of clinical specimens.(14) Quantitative accuracy is a primary motivating factor for utilizing a targeted proteomics protocol. The precise and reproducible absolute quantification produced by SRM assays is essential to many clinical and laboratory experiments.(15,16) Because the abundance of an endogenous peptide is calculated from the measurement of the spiked-in reference standard, it is essential to assess the data quality of these references.(17) In early applications of targeted proteomics, when instrument speed greatly limited the number of transitions that could be monitored, much of this quality assessment was done manually. However, recent improvements in instrument performance and experimental design have enabled a dramatic increase in the number of target peptides and associated SRM transitions, which makes manual quality assessment an untenable and laborious task. A variety of computational tools assist in SRM experiment design and data analysis. The first task in creating an SRM experiment is the choice of proteins and representative peptides to monitor. Achieving a reliable protein abundance requires appropriately choosing peptides that have a strong signal and are free from interferences in the biological matrix. Numerous computational tools exist to facilitate assay design by identifying peptides and refining SRM transitions.(18-21) To help share these assays and eliminate time spent designing the same transitions at multiple institutions, community portals have begun to host well-designed and vetted assays.(22-24) Analyzing the experimental data requires significant computational effort to align files across replicates and experimental conditions, pick peaks and produce quantitative values, normalize data and perform statistical tests, etc.(25-27)

Gibbons, Bryson C.↗