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Results for “design under uncertainty”

Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 91 records · Page 5
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2020

Characteristics of locational uncertainty marginal price for correlated uncertainties of variable renewable generation and demands

With the rapid increase of variable renewable energy sources in power systems, how to manage and price the uncertainty of renewable resources’ power outputs is becoming an urgent issue. Current market designs considering the uncertainties are mainly based on the probabilistic scenario set of demand and renewable energy resources power outputs. This consideration makes market designs vulnerable to three significant challenges when put into practice. First, the accurate probability distribution of renewable generation is hard to obtain in real-time. Second, it is challenging to clear the market timely with many scenarios to guarantee accuracy. Third, generation cost recovery cannot be guaranteed for some scenarios. To overcome these challenges, this paper proposes a locational uncertainty marginal price model to price the uncertainty explicitly based on a scenario-free stochastic market-clearing model. Instead of using the probabilistic scenario set, the uncertainty of renewable energy sources and loads is modeled with distributionally-robust chance constraints. The correlation of uncertainties can be endogenously modeled in both the market-clearing and the locational uncertainty marginal price formation. Furthermore, this paper proves that generation cost recovery, revenue adequacy, and partial market equilibrium can be achieved using the locational uncertainty marginal price model. Numerical results from both the small and large systems simulations validate that the generation cost recovery is maintained no matter the generation participates in uncertainty mitigation or not. The transmission congestion surplus is also allocated appropriately among loads, renewable energy sources, and financial transmission right owners.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗
DOE OSTI2022

Uncertainty-aware mixed-variable machine learning for materials design

Abstract Data-driven design shows the promise of accelerating materials discovery but is challenging due to the prohibitive cost of searching the vast design space of chemistry, structure, and synthesis methods. Bayesian optimization (BO) employs uncertainty-aware machine learning models to select promising designs to evaluate, hence reducing the cost. However, BO with mixed numerical and categorical variables, which is of particular interest in materials design, has not been well studied. In this work, we survey frequentist and Bayesian approaches to uncertainty quantification of machine learning with mixed variables. We then conduct a systematic comparative study of their performances in BO using a popular representative model from each group, the random forest-based Lolo model (frequentist) and the latent variable Gaussian process model (Bayesian). We examine the efficacy of the two models in the optimization of mathematical functions, as well as properties of structural and functional materials, where we observe performance differences as related to problem dimensionality and complexity. By investigating the machine learning models’ predictive and uncertainty estimation capabilities, we provide interpretations of the observed performance differences. Our results provide practical guidance on choosing between frequentist and Bayesian uncertainty-aware machine learning models for mixed-variable BO in materials design.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2021

TRUST-EABM Contact Thermal Conductance (CTC) Report

(U) Single Feature Testbeds to Reduce Uncertainty in Simulations and Tests [3] provided an overview for the need of experiments, with accompanying models and simulations, specifically designed to reduce uncertainties and build confidence in complex testing and analysis applications. The Contact Thermal Conductance (CTC) testbed is a joint effort between W-13 (formerly E-13) and MST-8. The objective of this study was to design a testbed, with accompanying finite element models, to quantify, reduce, and propagate measurement uncertainties in contact thermal conductance measurements between two mating components in WR-like thermal environments. The knowledge gained through this simplified experiment would educate more complex assessments and interaction conditions with WR-like materials and geometries.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2023

Legacy Well Leakage Risk Analysis at the Farnsworth Unit Site

This paper summarizes the results of the risk analysis and characterization of the CO 2 and brine leakage potential of Farnsworth Unit (FWU) site wells. The study is part of the U.S. DOE’s National Risk Assessment Partnership (NRAP) program, which aims to quantitatively evaluate long-term environmental risks under conditions of significant geologic uncertainty and variability. To achieve this, NRAP utilizes risk assessment and computational tools specifically designed to quantify uncertainties and calculate the risk associated with geologic carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) sequestration. For this study, we have developed a workflow that utilizes physics-based reservoir simulation results as input to perform leakage calculations using NRAP Tools, specifically NRAP-IAM-CS and RROM-Gen. These tools enable us to conduct leakage risk analysis based on ECLIPSE reservoir simulation results and to characterize wellbore leakage at the Farnsworth Unit Site. We analyze the risk of leakage from both individual wells and the entire field under various wellbore integrity distribution scenarios. The results of the risk analysis for the leakage potential of FWU wells indicate that, when compared to the total amount of CO 2 injected, the highest cemented well integrity distribution scenario (FutureGen high flow rate) exhibits approximately 0.01% cumulative CO 2 leakage for a 25-year CO 2 injection duration at the end of a 50-year post-injection monitoring period. In contrast, the highest possible leakage scenario (open well) shows approximately 0.1% cumulative CO 2 leakage over the same time frame.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2020

TRUST-EABM End-of-Year Report: Release FY20

The Delivery Environments (DE) program work package Testbeds to Reduce Uncertainties in Simulations and Tests (TRUST) is designed to quantify and reduce the uncertainty associated with experimental testing and numerical simulation of large engineering assemblies to support the efficient and responsive development of future systems. Because engineering assemblies contain a large number of uncertainty sources, well-characterized testbeds must be designed to isolate individual uncertainty sources. Once quantified, uncertainty sources can be compared to direct research and development funding towards the largest sources driving behavior of interest. Quantified uncertainty may also be propagated through engineering simulations to determine quantitative confidence in simulation predictions and for comparison against uncertainty in the experimental measurements.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2021

Coupling 1D xRAGE simulations with machine learning for graded inner shell design optimization in double shell capsules

Advances in machine learning provide the ability to leverage data from expensive simulations of high-energy-density experiments to significantly cut down on computational time and costs associated with the search for optimal target designs. This study presents an application of cutting-edge Bayesian optimization methods to the one-dimensional (1D) design optimization of double shell graded layer targets for inertial confinement fusion experiments. This investigation attempts to reduce hydrodynamic instabilities while retaining high yields for future NIF experiments. Machine learning methods can use predictive physics simulations to identify graded layer designs from within the vast design space that demonstrate high predicted performance, including novel designs with high uncertainty in performance that may hold unexpected promise. By applying machine learning tools to the simulation design, we map the trade-off between 1D yield and instability, specifically isolating parameter ranges, which maintain high performance while showing significantly improved Rayleigh–Taylor stability over the point design. Furthermore, the groundwork laid in this study will be a useful design tool for future NIF experiments with graded layer targets.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗
DOE OSTI2022

Network Uncertainty Quantification for Analysis of Multi-Component Systems

To impact physical mechanical system design decisions and realize the full promise of high-fidelity computational tools, simulation results must be integrated at the earliest stages of the design process. This is particularly challenging when dealing with uncertainty and optimizing for system-level performance metrics, as full-system models (often notoriously expensive and time-consuming to develop) are generally required to propagate uncertainties to system-level quantities of interest. Methods for propagating parameter and boundary condition uncertainty in networks of interconnected components hold promise for enabling design under uncertainty in real-world applications. These methods avoid the need for time consuming mesh generation of full-system geometries when changes are made to components or subassemblies. Additionally, they explicitly tie full-system model predictions to component/subassembly validation data which is valuable for qualification. These methods work by leveraging the fact that many engineered systems are inherently modular, being comprised of a hierarchy of components and subassemblies that are individually modified or replaced to define new system designs. By doing so, these methods enable rapid model development and the incorporation of uncertainty quantification earlier in the design process. The resulting formulation of the uncertainty propagation problem is iterative. We express the system model as a network of interconnected component models, which exchange solution information at component boundaries. We present a pair of approaches for propagating uncertainty in this type of decomposed system and provide implementations in the form of an open-source software library. We demonstrate these tools on a variety of applications and demonstrate the impact of problem-specific details on the performance and accuracy of the resulting UQ analysis. This work represents the most comprehensive investigation of these network uncertainty propagation methods to date.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2020

Multi-fidelity machine-learning with uncertainty quantification and Bayesian optimization for materials design: Application to ternary random alloys

We present a scale-bridging approach based on a multi-fidelity (MF) machine-learning (ML) framework leveraging Gaussian processes (GP) to fuse atomistic computational model predictions across multiple levels of fidelity. Through the posterior variance of the MFGP, our framework naturally enables uncertainty quantification, providing estimates of confidence in the predictions. We used density functional theory as high-fidelity prediction, while a ML interatomic potential is used as low-fidelity prediction. Practical materials’ design efficiency is demonstrated by reproducing the ternary composition dependence of a quantity of interest (bulk modulus) across the full aluminum–niobium–titanium ternary random alloy composition space. The MFGP is then coupled to a Bayesian optimization procedure, and the computational efficiency of this approach is demonstrated by performing an on-the-fly search for the global optimum of bulk modulus in the ternary composition space. The framework presented in this manuscript is the first application of MFGP to atomistic materials simulations fusing predictions between density functional theory and classical interatomic potential calculations.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2023

Preliminary Results for Uncertainty Quantification on Asymptotic Hydrogen Redistribution in a Prototypical Yttrium-Hydride Moderated Heat-Pipe-Cooled Microreactor

Yttrium hydride is one of the most promising materials for moderating nuclear microreactors. This is due to its high hydrogen concentration at high operating conditions, high value of thermal conductivity, and chemical stability. However, when subject to thermal and concentration spatial gradients, the hydrogen tends to migrate within the yttrium matrix, potentially leading to power swings and reactivity changes. This paper aims to present selected results concerning the sensitivity of the thermal and hydrogen redistribution response for a prototypical heat-pipe-cooled yttrium-hydride moderated microreactor to thermal properties uncertainty and selected design characteristics. To the best knowledge of the authors, this is the first study examining the impact of uncertainties on microreactor hydrogen redistribution response. To achieve this goal, Bison was used in conjunction with Dakota to create a framework able to perform Uncertainty Quantification (UQ) for the Simplified Microreactor Benchmark Assessment (SiMBA) problem.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗
DOE OSTI2023

Model-based quantification of margins and uncertainties in metal additive manufacturing for process design and qualification

Laser powder bed fusion (LPBF) Additive Manufacturing (AM) has the potential to enable the production of components with novel designs and material properties unachievable otherwise. However, process repeatability is a challenge, making qualification ill-defined and greatly reducing the utility of what could be an important manufacturing technology. In this work, a combination of modeling, uncertainty quantification (UQ), and experimentation are used in an effort to predict and bound the range of possible outcomes of the LPBF process. Quantities of interest predicted are melt pool dimensions, microstructure features, and mechanical distortions. A combination of high fidelity thermal-fluid models, microstructure growth models, and reduced fidelity, rapid thermal and mechanical models are used. Uncertainty propagation techniques are used to predict probability distributions of quantities of interest from estimates of process uncertainties. Repeated experiments are done to quantify observed probability distributions and compared to predicted distributions to determine if predictions are precise and accurate. Novel modeling methods are microstrucutre characterization techniques are also discussed. It is found that high fidelity models do a generally good job bounding experimentally observed melt pool morphologies for both bead-on-plate and powder bed cases. Microstructure models are able to bound a number of experimentally observed microstructure statistics, but with low precision due to challenges with calibrating the microstructure growth model parameters. A developed modified inherent strain distortion model does not accurately predict observed distortions. A lumped laser distortion model shows promise in being both accurately and precisely bounding observed outcomes from the deflection comb build, but requires further evaluation on more builds and geometries.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2021

Turbulent field fluctuations in gyrokinetic and fluid plasmas

A key uncertainty in the design and development of magnetic confinement fusion energy reactors is predicting edge plasma turbulence. An essential step in overcoming this uncertainty is the validation in accuracy of reduced turbulent transport models. Drift-reduced Braginskii two-fluid theory is one such set of reduced equations that has for decades simulated boundary plasmas in experiment, but significant questions exist regarding its predictive ability. To this end, using a novel physics-informed deep learning framework, we demonstrate the first ever direct quantitative comparisons of turbulent field fluctuations between electrostatic two-fluid theory and electromagnetic gyrokinetic modeling with good overall agreement found in magnetized helical plasmas at low normalized pressure. This framework presents a new technique for the numerical validation and discovery of reduced global plasma turbulence models.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗
DOE OSTI2023

Accelerating Scientific Simulations with Bi-Fidelity Weighted Transfer Learning

High-fidelity modeling is an essential design tool for many engineering applications. However, for complex systems, computational cost can be a limiting factor. Analyzing parameter sensitivity, uncertainty quantification, and design optimization require many model evaluations. Surrogate models are often used to develop the relationship between model parameters and quantities of interest. However, in the case of complex systems, surrogate models require several degrees of freedom and, thus, a large number of data points to determine the correct dependencies. For many applications, this may be prohibitively expensive. The reduction of computational requirements can be achieved by leveraging low-fidelity models. Low-fidelity models represent the system at a coarser resolution with the advantage of computational efficiency. Therefore, a bi-fidelity modeling paradigm, which augments the accuracy of a low-fidelity model in a computationally efficient manner by invoking limited runs of a high-fidelity model, can be leveraged to sufficiently balance the accuracy and computational requirements. In this work, a bi-fidelity weighted transfer learning method using neural networks was applied to a computational fluid dynamics heat transfer modeling problem. The transfer learning advantage was investigated as a function of hyperparameters. Our main finding is that the use of a bi-fidelity modeling paradigm achieves accuracy close to that of a high-fidelity Gaussian process model while significantly reducing computational cost. The bi-fidelity model achieves comparable performance with 90 high-fidelity samples-that is, 60% less than the samples needed to achieve similar accuracy without the use of bi-fidelity modeling,

Borowiec, Katarzyna↗
DOE OSTI2021

Turbulent field fluctuations in gyrokinetic and fluid plasmas

A key uncertainty in the design and development of magnetic confinement fusion energy reactors is predicting edge plasma turbulence. An essential step in overcoming this uncertainty is the validation in accuracy of reduced turbulent transport models. Drift-reduced Braginskii two-fluid theory is one such set of reduced equations that has for decades simulated boundary plasmas in experiment, but significant questions exist regarding its predictive ability. To this end, using a novel physics-informed deep learning framework, we demonstrate the first ever direct quantitative comparisons of turbulent field fluctuations between electrostatic two-fluid theory and electromagnetic gyrokinetic modelling with good overall agreement found in magnetized helical plasmas at low normalized pressure. This framework is readily adaptable to experimental and astrophysical environments, and presents a new technique for the numerical validation and discovery of reduced global plasma turbulence models.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗
DOE OSTI2024

Toward digital design at the exascale: An overview of project ICECap

High performance computing has entered the Exascale Age. Capable of performing over 1018 floating point operations per second, exascale computers, such as El Capitan, the National Nuclear Security Administration's first, have the potential to revolutionize the detailed in-depth study of highly complex science and engineering systems. However, in addition to these kind of whole machine “hero” simulations, exascale systems could also enable new paradigms in digital design by making petascale hero runs routine. Currently, untenable problems in complex system design, optimization, model exploration, and scientific discovery could all become possible. Motivated by the challenge of uncovering the next generation of robust high-yield inertial confinement fusion (ICF) designs, project ICECap (Inertial Confinement on El Capitan) attempts to integrate multiple advances in machine learning (ML), scientific workflows, high performance computing, GPU-acceleration, and numerical optimization to prototype such a future. Built on a general framework, ICECap is exploring how these technologies could broadly accelerate scientific discovery on El Capitan. In addition to our requirements, system-level design, and challenges, we describe some of the key technologies in ICECap, including ML replacements for multiphysics packages, tools for human-machine teaming, and algorithms for multifidelity design optimization under uncertainty. As a test of our prototype pre-El Capitan system, we advance the state-of-the art for ICF hohlraum design by demonstrating the optimization of a 17-parameter National Ignition Facility experiment and show that our ML-assisted workflow makes design choices that are consistent with physics intuition, but in an automated, efficient, and mathematically rigorous fashion.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗
DOE OSTI2024

Targeted Adaptive Design

Modern advanced manufacturing and advanced materials design often require searches of relatively high-dimensional process control parameter spaces for settings that result in optimal structure, property, and performance parameters. The mapping from the former to the latter must be determined from noisy experiments or from expensive simulations. Here, we abstract this problem to a mathematical framework in which an unknown function from a control space to a design space must be ascertained by means of expensive noisy measurements, which locate control settings generating desired design features within specified tolerances, with quantified uncertainty. We describe targeted adaptive design (TAD), a new algorithm that performs this sampling task efficiently. TAD creates a Gaussian process surrogate model of the unknown mapping at each iterative stage, proposing a new batch of control settings to sample experimentally and optimizing the updated expected log-predictive probability density of the target design. TAD either stops upon locating a solution with uncertainties that fit inside the tolerance box or uses a measure of expected future information to determine that the search space has been exhausted with no solution. TAD thus embodies the exploration-exploitation tension in a manner that recalls, but is essentially different from, Bayesian optimization and optimal experimental design.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2026

Scalable foundation models for numerical simulations on HPC platforms

In recent years, foundation models (FMs) have begun to reshape numerical simulations on high-performance computing (HPC) platforms. These large, pre-trained AI models enable rapid predictions across a broad range of physical domains, including Earth system modeling, fluid dynamics, materials science, as well as complex multi-modal simulations in aerospace engineering and fusion research. By training on diverse datasets, FMs learn intricate relationships and underlying physical behavior while also enabling the quantification of uncertainty in their predictions. This capability allows simulations that once required days of numerical calculation to be completed in minutes (FM inference), supporting real-time design optimization, uncertainty-aware decision making, and more comprehensive exploration of complex scenarios.

AI↗
DOE OSTI2022

Design and execution of a verification, validation, and uncertainty quantification plan for a numerical model of left ventricular flow after LVAD implantation

Left ventricular assist devices (LVADs) are implantable pumps that act as a life support therapy for patients with severe heart failure. Despite improving the survival rate, LVAD therapy can carry major complications. Particularly, the flow distortion introduced by the LVAD in the left ventricle (LV) may induce thrombus formation. While previous works have used numerical models to study the impact of multiple variables in the intra-LV stagnation regions, a comprehensive validation analysis has never been executed. The main goal of this work is to present a model of the LV-LVAD system and to design and follow a verification, validation and uncertainty quantification (VVUQ) plan based on the ASME V&V40 and V&V20 standards to ensure credible predictions. The experiment used to validate the simulation is the SDSU cardiac simulator, a bench mock-up of the cardiovascular system that allows mimicking multiple operation conditions for the heart-LVAD system. The numerical model is based on Alya, the BSC’s in-house platform for numerical modelling. Alya solves the Navier-Stokes equation with an Arbitrary Lagrangian-Eulerian (ALE) formulation in a deformable ventricle and includes pressure-driven valves, a 0D Windkessel model for the arterial output and a LVAD boundary condition modeled through a dynamic pressure-flow performance curve. The designed VVUQ plan involves: (a) a risk analysis and the associated credibility goals; (b) a verification stage to ensure correctness in the numerical solution procedure; (c) a sensitivity analysis to quantify the impact of the inputs on the four quantities of interest (QoIs) (average aortic root flow $Q^{avg}_{Ao}$, maximum aortic root flow $Q^{max}_{Ao}$, average LVAD flow $Q^{avg}_{VAD}$, and maximum LVAD flow $Q^{max}_{VAD}$; (d) an uncertainty quantification using six validation experiments that include extreme operating conditions. Numerical code verification tests ensured correctness of the solution procedure and numerical calculation verification showed a grid convergence index (GCI)95% <3.3%. The total Sobol indices obtained during the sensitivity analysis demonstrated that the ejection fraction, the heart rate, and the pump performance curve coefficients are the most impactful inputs for the analysed QoIs. The Minkowski norm is used as validation metric for the uncertainty quantification. It shows that the midpoint cases have more accurate results when compared to the extreme cases. The total computational cost of the simulations was above 100 [core-years] executed in around three weeks time span in Marenostrum IV supercomputer. This work details a novel numerical model for the LV-LVAD system, that is supported by the design and execution of a VVUQ plan created following recognised international standards. We present a methodology demonstrating that stringent VVUQ according to ASME standards is feasible but computationally expensive.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

Quantifying the Multi-Objective Cost of Uncertainty

Various real-world applications involve modeling complex systems with immense uncertainty and optimizing multiple objectives based on the uncertain model. Quantifying the impact of the model uncertainty on the given operational objectives is critical for designing optimal experiments that can most effectively reduce the uncertainty that affect the objectives pertinent to the application at hand. In this paper, we propose the concept of mean multi-objective cost of uncertainty (multi-objective MOCU) that can be used for objective-based quantification of uncertainty for complex uncertain systems considering multiple operational objectives. We provide several illustrative examples that demonstrate the concept and strengths of the proposed multi-objective MOCU. Furthermore, we present a real-world example based on the mammalian cell cycle network to demonstrate how the multi-objective MOCU can be used for quantifying the operational impact of model uncertainty when there are multiple, possibly competing, objectives.

42 ENGINEERING↗