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At least 91 records · Page 5

On the Use of Statistics in Design and the Implications for Deterministic Computer Experiments

Perhaps the most prevalent use of statistics in engineering design is through Taguchi's parameter and robust design -- using orthogonal arrays to compute signal-to-noise ratios in a process of design improvement. In our view, however, there is an equally exciting use of statistics in design that could become just as prevalent: it is the concept of metamodeling whereby statistical models are built to approximate detailed computer analysis codes. Although computers continue to get faster, analysis codes always seem to keep pace so that their computational time remains non-trivial. Through metamodeling, approximations of these codes are built that are orders of magnitude cheaper to run. These metamodels can then be linked to optimization routines for fast analysis, or they can serve as a bridge for integrating analysis codes across different domains. In this paper we first review metamodeling techniques that encompass design of experiments, response surface methodology, Taguchi methods, neural networks, inductive learning, and kriging. We discuss their existing applications in engineering design and then address the dangers of applying traditional statistical techniques to approximate deterministic computer analysis codes. We conclude with recommendations for the appropriate use of metamodeling techniques in given situations and how common pitfalls can be avoided.

Simpson, Timothy W.

A Deterministic Interfacial Cyclic Oxidation Spalling Model: Model Development and Parametric Response - Part 1

An equation has been developed to model the iterative scale growth and spalling process that occurs during cyclic oxidation of high temperature materials. Parabolic scale growth and spalling of a constant surface area fraction have been assumed. Interfacial spallation of the only the thickest segments was also postulated. This simplicity allowed for representation by a simple deterministic summation series. Inputs are the parabolic growth rate constant, the spall area fraction, oxide stoichiometry, and cycle duration. Outputs include the net weight change behavior, as well as the total amount of oxygen and metal consumed, the total amount of oxide spalled, and the mass fraction of oxide spalled. The outputs all follow typical well-behaved trends with the inputs and are in good agreement with previous interfacial models.

Smialek, James L.

Towards a Theory of Sampled-Data Piecewise-Deterministic Markov Processes

The analysis and design of practical control systems requires that stochastic models be employed. Analysis and design tools have been developed, for example, for Markovian jump linear continuous and discrete-time systems, piecewise-deterministic processes (PDP's), and general stochastic hybrid systems (GSHS's). These model classes have been used in many applications, including fault tolerant control and networked control systems. This paper presents initial results on the analysis of a sampled-data PDP representation of a nonlinear sampled-data system with a jump linear controller. In particular, it is shown that the state of the sampled-data PDP satisfies the strong Markov property. In addition, a relation between the invariant measures of a sampled-data system driven by a stochastic process and its associated discrete-time representation are presented. As an application, when the plant is linear with no external input, a sufficient testable condition for the convergence in distribution to the invariant delta Dirac measure is given.

Herencia-Zapana, Heber

ShareSync: A Solution for Deterministic Data Sharing over Ethernet

As part of upgrading the Contact Dynamics Simulation Laboratory (CDSL) at the NASA Marshall Space Flight Center (MSFC), a simple, cost effective method was needed to communicate data among the networked simulation machines and I/O controllers used to run the facility. To fill this need and similar applicable situations, a generic protocol was developed, called ShareSync. ShareSync is a lightweight, real-time, publish-subscribe Ethernet protocol for simple and deterministic data sharing across diverse machines and operating systems. ShareSync provides a simple Application Programming Interface (API) for simulation programmers to incorporate into their code. The protocol is compatible with virtually all Ethernet-capable machines, is flexible enough to support a variety of applications, is fast enough to provide soft real-time determinism, and is a low-cost resource for distributed simulation development, deployment, and maintenance. The first design cycle iteration of ShareSync has been completed, and the protocol has undergone several testing procedures including endurance and benchmarking tests and approaches the 2001ts data synchronization design goal for the CDSL.

Dunn, Daniel J., II

A Deterministic Transport Code for Space Environment Electrons

A deterministic computational procedure has been developed to describe transport of space environment electrons in various shield media. This code is an upgrade and extension of an earlier electron code. Whereas the former code was formulated on the basis of parametric functions derived from limited laboratory data, the present code utilizes well established theoretical representations to describe the relevant interactions and transport processes. The shield material specification has been made more general, as have the pertinent cross sections. A combined mean free path and average trajectory approach has been used in the transport formalism. Comparisons with Monte Carlo calculations are presented.

Nealy, John E.

A Deterministic Computational Procedure for Space Environment Electron Transport

A deterministic computational procedure for describing the transport of electrons in condensed media is formulated to simulate the effects and exposures from spectral distributions typical of electrons trapped in planetary magnetic fields. The primary purpose for developing the procedure is to provide a means of rapidly performing numerous repetitive transport calculations essential for electron radiation exposure assessments for complex space structures. The present code utilizes well-established theoretical representations to describe the relevant interactions and transport processes. A combined mean free path and average trajectory approach is used in the transport formalism. For typical space environment spectra, several favorable comparisons with Monte Carlo calculations are made which have indicated that accuracy is not compromised at the expense of the computational speed.

Nealy, John E.

On the Development of a Deterministic Three-Dimensional Radiation Transport Code

Since astronauts on future deep space missions will be exposed to dangerous radiations, there is a need to accurately model the transport of radiation through shielding materials and to estimate the received radiation dose. In response to this need a three dimensional deterministic code for space radiation transport is now under development. The new code GRNTRN is based on a Green's function solution of the Boltzmann transport equation that is constructed in the form of a Neumann series. Analytical approximations will be obtained for the first three terms of the Neumann series and the remainder will be estimated by a non-perturbative technique . This work discusses progress made to date and exhibits some computations based on the first two Neumann series terms.

Rockell, Candice

A Deterministic Annealing Approach to Clustering AIRS Data

We will examine the validity of means and standard deviations as a basis for climate data products. We will explore the conditions under which these two simple statistics are inadequate summaries of the underlying empirical probability distributions by contrasting them with a nonparametric, method called Deterministic Annealing technique

clustering

An Efficient Deterministic Approach to Model-based Prediction Uncertainty Estimation

Prognostics deals with the prediction of the end of life (EOL) of a system. EOL is a random variable, due to the presence of process noise and uncertainty in the future inputs to the system. Prognostics algorithm must account for this inherent uncertainty. In addition, these algorithms never know exactly the state of the system at the desired time of prediction, or the exact model describing the future evolution of the system, accumulating additional uncertainty into the predicted EOL. Prediction algorithms that do not account for these sources of uncertainty are misrepresenting the EOL and can lead to poor decisions based on their results. In this paper, we explore the impact of uncertainty in the prediction problem. We develop a general model-based prediction algorithm that incorporates these sources of uncertainty, and propose a novel approach to efficiently handle uncertainty in the future input trajectories of a system by using the unscented transformation. Using this approach, we are not only able to reduce the computational load but also estimate the bounds of uncertainty in a deterministic manner, which can be useful to consider during decision-making. Using a lithium-ion battery as a case study, we perform several simulation-based experiments to explore these issues, and validate the overall approach using experimental data from a battery testbed.

Daigle, Matthew J.

Application of Deterministic and Probabilistic System Design Methods and Enhancements of Conceptual Design Tools for ERA Project

This report documents work done by the Aerospace Systems Design Lab (ASDL) at the Georgia Institute of Technology, Daniel Guggenheim School of Aerospace Engineering for the National Aeronautics and Space Administration, Aeronautics Research Mission Directorate, Integrated System Research Program, Environmentally Responsible Aviation (ERA) Project. This report was prepared under contract NNL12AA12C, "Application of Deterministic and Probabilistic System Design Methods and Enhancement of Conceptual Design Tools for ERA Project". The research within this report addressed the Environmentally Responsible Aviation (ERA) project goal stated in the NRA solicitation "to advance vehicle concepts and technologies that can simultaneously reduce fuel burn, noise, and emissions." To identify technology and vehicle solutions that simultaneously meet these three metrics requires the use of system-level analysis with the appropriate level of fidelity to quantify feasibility, benefits and degradations, and associated risk. In order to perform the system level analysis, the Environmental Design Space (EDS) [Kirby 2008, Schutte 2012a] environment developed by ASDL was used to model both conventional and unconventional configurations as well as to assess technologies from the ERA and N+2 timeframe portfolios. A well-established system design approach was used to perform aircraft conceptual design studies, including technology trade studies to identify technology portfolios capable of accomplishing the ERA project goal and to obtain accurate tradeoffs between performance, noise, and emissions. The ERA goal, shown in Figure 1, is to simultaneously achieve the N+2 benefits of a cumulative noise margin of 42 EPNdB relative to stage 4, a 75 percent reduction in LTO NOx emissions relative to CAEP 6 and a 50 percent reduction in fuel burn relative to the 2005 best in class aircraft. There were 5 research task associated with this research: 1) identify technology collectors, 2) model technology collectors in EDS, 3) model and assess ERA technologies, 4) LTO and cruise emission prediction, and 5) probabilistic analysis of technology collectors and portfolios.

Mavris, Dimitri N.

A Digital Twin Feasibility Study (Part II):Non-Deterministic Predictions of Fatigue Life Using In-Situ Diagnostics and Prognostics

The Digital Twin (DT) concept has the potential to revolutionize the way systems and their components are designed, managed, maintained, and operated across a vast number of fields from engineering to healthcare. The focus of this work is the implementation of DT for the health management of fatigue critical structures. This paper is the second part of a two-part series. The first of the series demonstrated the use of multi-scale, initiation-to-failure crack growth modeling to form non-deterministic predictions of fatigue life. In this second part, a general method for reducing uncertainty in fatigue life predictions is presented that couples in-situ diagnostics and prognostics in a probabilistic framework. Monte Carlo methods and high-fidelity finite element models are used to (i) generate probabilistic estimates of crack state throughout the life of the same geometrically complex test specimen and (ii) predict fatigue life with decreasing uncertainty as more of these diagnoses are obtained. The ability to predict accurately and in the presence of uncertainty is demonstrated, suggesting that the proposed DT method is feasible for fatigue life prognosis and should be pursued further with a focus on increasing application realism.

Patrick E Leser

Stabilizing Ultrathin CsPbBr 3 Nanoplatelet Films for Deterministic Strong Light-Matter Coupling

While the excitons in perovskite nanomaterials possess interesting properties central to their use in optoelectronic technologies, their instability limits real world applicability. In this study, we describe a method to stabilize the structures of cesium lead bromide (CsPbBr 3 ) nanoplatelets (NPLs) in spin-casted films. We apply this method to design, fabricate, and characterize exciton cavity polaritons formed from these nanomaterials. These studies show that we can form exciton cavity polaritons from CsPbBr 3 in precisely designed Fabry−Perot microresonators and suggest that the structures of these materials can be stabilized toward their use in other solution-processed optoelectronic devices.

cavities

Deterministic multi-phonon entanglement between two mechanical resonators on separate substrates

Mechanical systems have emerged as a compelling platform for applications in quantum information, leveraging advances in the control of phonons, the quanta of mechanical vibrations. Experiments have demonstrated the control and measurement of phonon states in mechanical resonators, and while dual-resonator entanglement has been demonstrated, more complex entangled states remain a challenge. Here, we demonstrate rapid multi-phonon entanglement generation and subsequent tomographic analysis, using a scalable platform comprising two surface acoustic wave resonators on separate substrates, each connected to a superconducting qubit. We synthesize a mechanical Bell state with a fidelity of $\mathcal{F}$ = 0.872 ± 0.002, and a multi-phonon entangled N = 2 N00N state with a fidelity of $\mathcal{F}$ = 0.748 ± 0.008. The compact, modular, and scalable platform we demonstrate will enable further advances in the quantum control of complex mechanical systems.

74 ATOMIC AND MOLECULAR PHYSICS

Deterministic fabrication of graphene hexagonal boron nitride moiré superlattices

The electronic properties of moiré heterostructures depend sensitively on the relative orientation between layers of the stack. For example, near-magic-angle twisted bilayer graphene (TBG) commonly shows superconductivity, yet a TBG sample with one of the graphene layers rotationally aligned to a hexagonal Boron Nitride (hBN) cladding layer provided experimental observation of orbital ferromagnetism. To create samples with aligned graphene/hBN, researchers often align edges of exfoliated flakes that appear straight in optical micrographs. However, graphene or hBN can cleave along either zig-zag or armchair lattice directions, introducing a 30° ambiguity in the relative orientation of two flakes. By characterizing the crystal lattice orientation of exfoliated flakes prior to stacking using Raman and second-harmonic generation for graphene and hBN, respectively, we unambiguously align monolayer graphene to hBN at a near-0°, not 30°, relative twist angle. We confirm this alignment by torsional force microscopy of the graphene/hBN moiré on an open-face stack, and then by cryogenic transport measurements, after full encapsulation with a second, nonaligned hBN layer. This work demonstrates a key step toward systematically exploring the effects of the relative twist angle between dissimilar materials within moiré heterostructures.

boron nitride