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DOE OSTI2021

Late-time small body disruptions for planetary defense

Here, diverting hazardous small bodies on impact trajectories with the Earth can in some circumstances be impossible without risking disrupting them. Disruption is a much more difficult planetary defense scenario to assess, being linked both to the response of the body to shock loading and the much more complicated gravitational dynamics of the fragments in the solar system relative to pure deflection scenarios. In this work we present a new simulation suite built on N-body gravitational methods that solves fragment orbits in the full gravitational system without recourse to more approximate methods. We assess the accuracy of our simulations and the simplifying assumptions we adopt to make the system tractable, and then discuss in more detail several specific, plausible planetary defense scenarios based on real close encounters. We find that disruption can be a very effective planetary defense strategy even for very late (sub-year) interventions, and should be considered an effective backup strategy should preferred methods, which require long warning times, fail.

42 ENGINEERING↗

DOE OSTI2023

On the minimum transport required to passively suppress runaway electrons in SPARC disruptions

In Izzo et al (2022 Nucl. Fusion 62 096029), state-of-the-art modeling of thermal and current quench (CQ) magnetohydrodynamics (MHD) coupled with a self-consistent evolution of runaway electron (RE) generation and transport showed that a non-axisymmetric (n = 1) in-vessel coil could passively prevent RE beam formation during disruptions in SPARC, a compact high-field tokamak projected to achieve a fusion gain Q > 2 in DT plasmas. However, such suppression requires finite transport of REs within magnetic islands and re-healed flux surfaces; conservatively assuming zero transport in these regions leads to an upper bound of RE current ~1MA compared to ~8.7MA of pre-disruption plasma current. Further investigation finds that core-localized electrons, within r/a < 0.4 and with kinetic energies ~0.2–15 MeV, contribute most to the RE plateau formation. Yet only a relatively small amount of transport, i.e. a diffusion coefficient ~18 m 2 s -1 , is needed in the core to fully mitigate these REs. Properly accounting for (a) the CQ electric field's effect on RE transport in islands and (b) the contribution of significant RE currents to disruption MHD may help achieve this.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

DOE OSTI2024

Extended-MHD simulations of disruption mitigation via massive gas injection in SPARC

Recent developments to the M3D-C1 code enable higher fidelity modeling of disruptions, and can be applied in the design verification of reactor-scale tokamaks. Among these new capabilities is a method to mesh conducting vessel structures such as coils and passive plates, packing of the toroidal mesh around gas injectors, as well as anisotropic resistivity inside the vessel structures. We present extended-magnetohydrodynamic (MHD) simulations of disruption mitigation via massive gas injection (MGI) in SPARC. The goal of this study is to inform the disruption mitigation layout of SPARC and aid in the design of an effective gas injector configuration. Fully three-dimensional simulations with M3D-C1 are carried out for various injector configurations with the primary goal of determining the effect of different MGI parameters on heat loads and vessel forces. The simulations include a model for impurity ionization, recombination, advection and radiation, as well as spatially resolved conducting structures around the plasma. A localized mixture of deuterium and neon with a small toroidal and poloidal width is injected in up to six locations. We demonstrate that M3D-C1 can model a rapid shutdown via MGI using narrow and more realistic gas plumes than in previous simulations. As a result of the q = 1 surface in the SPARC baseline case a sawtooth is observed early in the simulations. Despite the sawtooth and the onset of edge MHD instabilities, the impurity distribution remains localized around the injector locations, but enables a radiative shutdown of the plasma. We find that using the maximum of six gas injectors results in a lower peaking factor and leads to a more even distribution of radiation toroidally than using two injectors.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

DOE OSTI2020

Disruption Prediction and Avoidance in High Beta Long Pulse KSTAR Plasmas

DoE Grant DE-SC0016409 (Disruption Prediction and Avoidance in High Beta Long Pulse KSTAR Plasmas) supported a collaboration among Columbia University, the Princeton Plasma Physics Laboratory (PPPL), and the Plasma Science and Fusion Center (PSFC) at MIT to conduct research on the KSTAR tokamak at the National Fusion Research Institute (NFRI) in Korea to improve predictive capability for disruptions in tokamaks. This initiative included upgrades to kinetic diagnostics at KSTAR whose measurements form the basis for the disruption prediction models. The major thrust of the PPPL and PSFC work was implementing a capability at KSTAR to allow partially-polarized background light seen by the KSTAR Motional Stark Effect (MSE) diagnostic to be compensated by ‘wavelength interpolation’ rather than the traditional ‘beam modulation’ technique. This objective was completed on time and on budget, and the MSE Background Polychromator is currently functioning at KSTAR. Primary responsibility for maintaining and operating the MSE-BP was transferred to Nova Photonics, Inc. in 2019.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

DOE OSTI2022

Disrupting autorepression circuitry generates “open-loop lethality” to yield escape-resistant antiviral agents

Across biological scales, gene-regulatory networks employ autorepression (negative feedback) to maintain homeostasis and minimize failure from aberrant expression. In this study, we present a proof of concept that disrupting transcriptional negative feedback dysregulates viral gene expression to therapeutically inhibit replication and confers a high evolutionary barrier to resistance. We find that nucleic-acid decoys mimicking cis-regulatory sites act as “feedback disruptors,” break homeostasis, and increase viral transcription factors to cytotoxic levels (termed “open-loop lethality”). Feedback disruptors against herpesviruses reduced viral replication >2-logs without activating innate immunity, showed sub-nM IC 50 , synergized with standard-of-care antivirals, and inhibited virus replication in mice. In contrast to approved antivirals where resistance rapidly emerged, no feedback-disruptor escape mutants evolved in long-term cultures. For SARS-CoV-2, disruption of a putative feedback circuit also generated open-loop lethality, reducing viral titers by >1-log. These results demonstrate that generating open-loop lethality, via negative-feedback disruption, may yield a class of antimicrobials with a high genetic barrier to resistance.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2025

The congenital APOA1 K107del mutation disrupts the lipid-free conformation of monomeric APOA1 and impairs oligomerization

Apolipoprotein A-I (APOA1) oligomerization is thought to be essential for high-density lipoprotein (HDL) formation and metabolism. Naturally occurring mutations can disrupt normal APOA1 folding and self-association, leading to dysfunctional HDL formation and cardiovascular disease. The congenital APOA1 variant p.K131del (APOA1 K107del ) has been associated with cardiovascular pathologies such as low HDL-cholesterol levels and aortic amyloidosis, and multiple studies indicate structural changes in APOA1 conformation underlie associated dysfunction. In the current study, we confirmed that APOA1 K107del exhibits no notable defect in lipid-binding. However, using polyacrylamide gel electrophoresis (PAGE) and size-exclusion chromatography (SEC), we found that loss of lysine 107 resulted in a remarkable shift in the distribution of APOA1 oligomers with a much higher proportion of monomers present in APOA1 K107del compared to wild-type APOA1. Further investigation using quantitative cross-linking revealed a major disruption of interactions in helical regions reported to participate in domain swaps necessary for proper self-association. This structural disruption appears to impair N- and C-termini interactions and dynamics that lead to non-specific aggregation. In conclusion, these findings support the hypothesis that lysine 107 is critical for proper folding and self-association of lipid-free APOA1 which could impact HDL biogenesis.

APOA1 (p.K131del)↗

DOE OSTI2021

Disrupted NOS2 metabolism drives myoblast response to wasting-associated cytokines

Highlights: • Amino acid metabolism is impacted in myoblasts treated with cancer cell conditioned media. • Inflammatory cytokines induce nitric oxide synthase 2 in myoblasts. • Elevated nitric oxide synthase 2 activity impairs myoblast proliferation and differentiation. Skeletal muscle wasting drives negative clinical outcomes and is associated with a spectrum of pathologies including cancer. Cancer cachexia is a multi-factorial syndrome that encompasses skeletal muscle wasting and remains understudied, despite being a frequent and serious co-morbidity. Deviation from the homeostatic balance between breakdown and regeneration leads to muscle wasting disorders, such as cancer cachexia. Muscle stem cells (MuSCs) are the cellular compartment responsible for muscle regeneration, which makes MuSCs an intriguing target in the context of wasting muscle. Molecular studies investigating MuSCs and skeletal muscle wasting largely focus on transcriptional changes, but our group and others propose that metabolic changes are another layer of cellular regulation underlying MuSC dysfunction in cancer cachexia. In the present study, we combined gene expression and non-targeted metabolomic profiling of myoblasts exposed to wasting conditions (cancer cell conditioned media, CC-CM) to derive a more complete picture of the myoblast response to wasting factors. After mapping these features to annotated pathways, we found that more than half of the mapped pathways were amino acid-related, linking global amino acid metabolic disruption to conditioned media-induced myoblast defects. Notably, arginine metabolism was a highly enriched pathway in combined metabolomic and transcriptomic data. Arginine catabolism generates nitric oxide (NO), an important signaling molecule known to have negative effects on mature muscle. We hypothesize that tumor-derived disruptions in Nitric Oxide Synthase (NOS)2-regulated arginine catabolism impair differentiation of MuSCs. The work presented here further investigates the effect of NOS2 overactivity on myoblast proliferation and differentiation. We show that NOS2 inhibition is sufficient to rescue wasting phenotypes associated with inflammatory cytokines. Ultimately, this work provides new insights into MuSC biology and opens up potential therapeutic avenues for addressing disrupted MuSC dynamics in cancer cachexia.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2022

Searching for ultra-light bosons and constraining black hole spin distributions with stellar tidal disruption events

Stars that pass close to the supermassive black holes located in the center of galaxies can be disrupted by tidal forces, leading to flares that are observed as bright transient events in sky surveys. The rate for these events to occur depends on the black hole spins, which in turn can be affected by ultra-light bosons due to superradiance. We perform a detailed analysis of these effects and show that searches for stellar tidal disruptions have the potential to uncover the existence of ultra-light bosons. In particular, we find that upcoming stellar tidal disruption rate measurements by the Vera Rubin Observatory’s Legacy Survey of Space and Time can be used to either discover or rule out bosons with masses ranging from 10 –20 to 10 –18 eV. Our analysis also indicates that these measurements may be used to constrain a variety of supermassive black hole spin distributions and determine if close-to maximal spins are preferred.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗

DOE OSTI2021

A tidal disruption event coincident with a high-energy neutrino

Cosmic neutrinos provide a unique window into the otherwise hidden mechanism of particle acceleration in astrophysical objects. The IceCube Collaboration recently reported the likely association of one high-energy neutrino with a flare from the relativistic jet of an active galaxy pointed towards the Earth. However a combined analysis of many similar active galaxies revealed no excess from the broader population, leaving the vast majority of the cosmic neutrino flux unexplained. Here we present the likely association of a radio-emitting tidal disruption event, AT2019dsg, with a second high-energy neutrino. AT2019dsg was identified as part of our systematic search for optical counterparts to high-energy neutrinos with the Zwicky Transient Facility. The probability of finding any coincident radio-emitting tidal disruption event by chance is 0.5%, while the probability of finding one as bright in bolometric energy flux as AT2019dsg is 0.2%. Our electromagnetic observations can be explained through a multizone model, with radio analysis revealing a central engine, embedded in a UV photosphere, that powers an extended synchrotron-emitting outflow. This provides an ideal site for petaelectronvolt neutrino production. Assuming that the association is genuine, our observations suggest that tidal disruption events with mildly relativistic outflows contribute to the cosmic neutrino flux.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2020

Deep convolutional neural networks for multi-scale time-series classification and application to tokamak disruption prediction using raw, high temporal resolution diagnostic data

In this paper we discuss recent advances in deep convolutional neural networks (CNN) for sequence learning, which allow identifying long-range, multi-scale phenomena in long sequences, such as those found in fusion plasmas. We point out several benefits of these deep CNN architectures, such as not requiring experts such as physicists to hand-craft input data features, the ability to capture longer range dependencies compared to the more common sequence neural networks (recurrent neural networks like long short-term memory (LSTM) networks), and the comparative computational efficiency. We apply this neural network architecture to the popular problem of disruption prediction in fusion energy tokamaks, utilizing raw data from a single diagnostic, the Electron Cyclotron Emission imaging (ECEi) diagnostic from the DIII-D tokamak. Initial results trained on a large ECEi dataset show promise, achieving an F 1 -score of ~91% on individual time-slices using only the ECEi data. This indicates the ECEi diagnostic by itself can be sensitive to a number of pre-disruption markers useful for predicting disruptions on timescales not only for mitigation but also avoidance. Future opportunities for utilizing these deep CNN architectures with fusion data are outlined, including impact of recent upgrades to the ECEi diagnostic.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

DOE OSTI2024

Modelling and experiment to stabilize disruptive tearing modes in the ITER baseline scenario in DIII-D

Abstract The achievement of high gain, stationary conditions in a tokamak scenario aimed at producing fusion energy in the ITER Project is crucial to the demonstration that this form of energy can be used in future reactors to provide cheap and clean energy globally. Disruptions are a challenge for the fusion energy field, in particular for the ‘ITER Baseline Scenario’ (IBS), as reproduced in the DIII-D tokamak. This work shows that a solution has been found for the m = 2/ n = 1 tearing modes that have consistently caused disruptions in the IBS: stable operation down to zero input torque was achieved by modifying the current density profile at the beginning of the pressure flattop and the ELM character later in the discharges, guided by previous results showing that the most likely cause of these instabilities is the current density profile. The coupling between sawteeth, n>2 modes and the 2/1 TMs is shown to not be statistically significant, nor the leading origin for the evolution towards instability. Ideal and resistive MHD modeling provide positive verification that a steeper ‘well’ in the region of the q = 2 rational surface leads to worse ideal stability, higher tearing index Δ’ and lower threshold Δ’ c for resistive instabilities, consistent with the experimental results. This provides confidence that the methods used in this work can be extrapolated to other devices and applied to avoid disruptions in ITER and pulsed fusion devices worldwide.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

DOE OSTI2025

Kinetic modeling of hot tail runaway electron generation during plasma disruptions using the JOREK code

The generation of runaway electrons (REs) during disruptions poses a significant challenge for the operation of tokamaks. The production of these high-energy electrons can cause substantial damage, particularly when the plasma current is high, making it a critical concern for ITER. For the high-temperature plasmas anticipated in ITER, the primary generation of REs may be dominated by the hot tail mechanism, which consists of the acceleration of hot electrons from the pre-disruption population which have not yet thermalized with the bulk following the rapid cooling of the plasma. To account for the significant 3D effects on RE production, a hot tail modeling framework has been developed within the non-linear 3D extended MHD code JOREK. This paper presents the structure of this framework, which is based on test electrons evolving in MHD fields. The verification of the method shows good agreement with the reference DREAM code for 0D test cases, as well as for axisymmetric simulations of 15 MA ITER H-mode disruption scenarios. Furthermore, a proof-of-principle application to a DIII-D case demonstrates the framework’s capability to capture for the first time the hot tail generation in 3D MHD simulations in realistic geometry. Preliminary results suggest that the production of REs is significantly reduced by stochastic losses.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

DOE OSTI2023

Recombination smooths the time-signal disrupted by latency in within-host HIV phylogenies

Within-host HIV evolution involves several features that may disrupt standard phylogenetic reconstruction. One important feature is re-activation of latently integrated provirus, which has the potential to disrupt the temporal signal, leading to variation in the branch lengths and apparent evolutionary rates in a tree. Yet, real within-host HIV phylogenies tend to show clear, ladder-like trees structured by the time of sampling. Another important feature is recombination, which violates the fundamental assumption that evolutionary history can be represented by a single bifurcating tree. Thus, recombination complicates the within-host HIV dynamic by mixing genomes and creating evolutionary loop structures that cannot be represented in bifurcating trees. In this paper, we develop a coalescent-based simulator of within-host HIV evolution that includes latency, recombination, and effective population size dynamics that allows us to study the relationship between the true, complex genealogy of within-host HIV evolution, encoded as an Ancestral Recombination Graph (ARG), and the observed phylogenetic tree. To compare our ARG results to the familiar phylogeny format, we calculate the expected bifurcating tree after decomposing the ARG into all unique site trees, their combined distance matrix, and the overall corresponding bifurcating tree. While latency and recombination separately disrupt the phylogenetic signal, remarkably, we find that recombination recovers the temporal signal of within-host HIV evolution caused by latency by mixing fragments of old, latent genomes into the contemporary population. In effect, recombination averages over extant heterogeneity, whether it stems from mixed time-signals or population bottlenecks. Further, we establish that the signals of latency and recombination can be observed in phylogenetic trees despite being an incorrect representation of the true evolutionary history. Using an Approximate Bayesian Computation method, we develop a set of statistical probes to tune our simulation model to nine longitudinally-sampled within-host HIV phylogenies. Because ARGs are exceedingly difficult to infer from real HIV data, our simulation system allows investigating effects of latency, recombination, and population size bottlenecks by matching decomposed ARGs to real data as observed in standard phylogenies.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2022

Disruption-Robust Community Detection Using Consensus Clustering in Complex Networks

Topological (graph-theoretic) analysis of critical infrastructure networks provides insight on several aspects of resilience. Graph clustering or community detection, which identifies densely connected components in a graph, has been employed for analysis. In this paper, we propose employing consensus clustering, which is a technique to determine consensus from a collection of different clusters on an input, such that the resulting clustering is robust to disruptions, where a disruption is represented as loss of one or more vertices or edges in the graph. Using two critical infrastructure networks as case studies, we empirically demonstrate the need to compute consensus clustering in order to address the drastic changes in the topology due to disruptions in the network.

Hussain, Md Taufique↗

DOE OSTI2020

Deep convolutional neural networks for multi-scale time-series classification and application to disruption prediction in fusion devices

The multi-scale, mutli-physics nature of fusion plasmas makes predicting plasma events challenging. Recent advances in deep convolutional neural network architectures (CNN) utilizing dilated convolutions enable accurate predictions on sequences which have long-range, multi-scale characteristics, such as the time-series generated by diagnostic instruments observing fusion plasmas. Here we apply this neural network architecture to the popular problem of disruption prediction in fusion tokamaks, utilizing raw data from a single diagnostic, the Electron Cyclotron Emission imaging (ECEi) diagnostic from the DIII-D tokamak. ECEi measures a fundamental plasma quantity (electron temperature) with high temporal resolution over the entire plasma discharge, making it sensitive to a number of potential pre-disruptions markers with different temporal and spatial scales. Promising, initial disruption prediction results are obtained training a deep CNN with large receptive field ({$\sim$}30k), achieving an $F_1$-score of {$\sim$}91\% on individual time-slices using only the ECEi data.

convolutional neural networks↗

DOE OSTI2020

Tidal Disruption Event Galaxy Binner

This software simulates astronomical survey detections of tidal disruptions of stars by super-massive black holes. It begins with the synthetic galaxy catalogue described in van Velzen 2008 (https://arxiv.org/abs/1707.03458). The stellar disruption rate in each galaxy is estimated based on Stone & Metzger 2016 (https://arxiv.org/abs/1410.7772). Based on these rates, and the present-day stellar mass function in the galaxy, disruptions are randomly sampled, and the properties of the resulting flares are sampled based on empirical distributions. The code also accounts for obscuration by dust in the host galaxy. Finally, the survey selection effects are applied. The detectable simulated flares are stored in a database, allowing histograms of their properties to be created.

Roth, NathanielJ.↗

DOE OSTI2026

Dynamic Disruption Resilience in Intermodal Transport Networks: Integrating Flow Weighting and Centrality Measures

Resilient intermodal freight networks are vital for sustaining supply chains amid increasing threats from natural hazards and cyberattacks. Transportation resilience has been widely studied; understanding how random and targeted disruptions affect structural connectivity and functional performance remains a key challenge. To address this, this study evaluates the robustness of the US intermodal freight network, which consists of rail and water modes, using a simulation-based framework that integrates graph-theoretic metrics with flow-weighted centrality measures. Disruption scenarios are examined, including random failures as well as targeted node and edge removals based on static and dynamically updated degree and betweenness centrality. To reflect more realistic conditions, flow-weighted degree centralities (WDC) and partial node degradation are considered. Two resilience indicators are used: (1) the size of the giant connected component to measure structural connectivity; and (2) flow-weighted network efficiency (NE) to assess freight mobility under disruption. The results show that progressively degrading nodes ranked by WDC to 60% of their original functionality causes a sharper decline in normalized NE, for up to approximately 45 affected nodes, than complete failure (100% loss of functionality) applied to nodes targeted by weighted betweenness centrality or selected at random. This highlights how partial degradation of high-tonnage hubs can produce disproportionately large functional losses. The findings emphasize the need for resilience strategies that go beyond network topology to incorporate freight flow dynamics.

42 ENGINEERING↗

DOE OSTI2021

Sensitivity of Infrastructure Sectors to the Disruption of Commercial Electric Power

Electric power is crucial to the function of other infrastructures, as well as to the stability of the economy and the social order. Disruption of commercial electric power service, even for brief periods of time, can create significant consequences to the function of other sectors, and make living in some environments untenable. This analysis, conducted in 2017 for the United States Department of Energy (DOE) as part of the Grid Modernization Laboratory Consortium (GMLC) Initiative, focuses on describing the function of each of the other infrastructure sectors and subsectors, with an eye towards those elements of these sectors that depend on primary electric power service through the commercial electric power grid. It leverages the experience of Sandia analysts in analyzing historical disruptive events, and from the development of capabilities designed to identify the physical, logical, and geographic connectivity between infrastructures. The analysis goes on to identify alternatives for the provision of primary electric power service, and the redundancy of said alternatives, to provide a picture of the sector’s ability to withstand an extended disruption.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗