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At least 91 records · Page 5

Raman scattering of rhenium for secondary pressure calibration

With the increasing number of 100 s GPa experiments in the diamond anvil cell (DAC), improved accuracy in secondary pressure calibrations to extreme pressures is essential. The rhenium equation of state has been proposed as a pressure calibrant via x-ray diffraction with potentially broad applications as it is commonly used as a gasket material in DAC experiments. In this work, we conducted Raman spectroscopy experiments on rhenium in the DAC and report the pressure shift of the E2g mode, a refined high-pressure C44 and mode-Grüneisen parameter above 200 GPa. We used flat, beveled, and toroidal diamond anvils under quasi-hydrostatic and non-hydrostatic conditions. By measuring the E2g mode from the culet edge to the center, we analyzed pressure distribution based on culet type and distance from the anvil center. The shift in the E2g mode can be expressed as a function of pressure, and diamond edge measurements appear reliable across all anvil types. Comparing the center and edge pressures reveals anvil cupping, offering insights into predicting or preventing anvil failure during materials properties measurements at extreme conditions.

Diamond anvil cells↗

Hofmann Stability Charts Revisited for PIP-II: From Classical Theory to Assumption-Free and ML-Driven Maps

The Hofmann stability chart remains a standard for visualizing parametric resonances in space-charge–dominated linacs, but its use typically relies on non-oscillatory Vlasov dispersion relations with simplifying assumptions (continuous focusing, KV phase space, linear optics, limited transverse–longitudinal coupling). We revisit the chart for the PIP-II linac along three tracks. (1) We reproduce the conventional maps in the (νz/νx, νx/ν0x) plane for relevant εz/εx, providing a validated reference. (2) We remove key assumptions by deriving stability surfaces directly from multi-particle tracking with realistic lattice discreteness, RF defocusing, solenoid/quad optics, and bunched-beam dynamics; local tunes and early-time growth rates are estimated from envelope oscillations and projected to the same coordinates. These assumption-reduced maps recover the canonical stopbands while revealing shifts and broadenings driven by tune modulation, non-KV distributions, and transverse–longitudinal coupling at PIP-II intensities. (3) We train a compact machine-learning surrogate that emulates the growth surface from zero-current optics, tune depression, emittance ratio, bunching factor, and selected lattice descriptors, enabling rapid scans and online working-point selection. We compare the three representations on representative PIP-II sections and discuss implications for commissioning guard bands, resonance avoidance, and routine operations.

Pathak, Abhishek [Fermilab] (ORCID:000000021704208↗

Design trade-offs for residential retail tariffs and virtual power plants

Retail rate design and virtual power plants (VPPs) have the potential to shift customer electricity demand and provide economic benefits to utility customers. As the adoption of distributed energy resources (DERs) and flexible loads increases, retail tariff and program design can impact Bonbright's rate design principles including affordability, fairness, and economic efficiency. We model the effects of residential retail rates and VPP programs on power system costs in Massachusetts under a potential future system with high renewable energy and DER adoption. We model interactions among retail rate design, demand flexibility, and utility costs and identify trade-offs across different rate designs and VPP programs. We estimate that time-of-use (TOU) rates and VPP programs designed to avoid critical peak rates can lower overall system costs by 3.5 %-4.8 %. These lower costs translate to lower electricity bills for 62 %-91 % of customers, depending on the scenario. Although TOU rates with a critical peak VPP program can benefit all customer segments and are economically efficient, a VPP program with flat rates leads to the lowest overall bills for customers. We find that customers with loads that align with peak demand and who participate in critical peak VPP programs can underpay for their contribution to utility costs and shift costs to other customers. While our assumptions about mandatory TOU and/or critical peak pricing likely impact the magnitude of the results, the results highlight the trade-offs of these tariffs and programs and the importance of tariff and program design as demand becomes more flexible and responsive.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

SIDDA: SInkhorn Dynamic Domain Adaptation for image classification with equivariant neural networks

Modern neural networks (NNs) often do not generalize well in the presence of a ‘covariate shift’; that is, in situations where the training and test data distributions differ, but the conditional distribution of classification labels given the data remains unchanged. In such cases, NN generalization can be reduced to a problem of learning more robust, domain-invariant features. Domain adaptation (DA) methods include a broad range of techniques aimed at achieving this; however, these methods have struggled with the need for extensive hyperparameter tuning, which then incurs significant computational costs. In this work, we introduce SInkhorn Dynamic Domain Adaptation (SIDDA), an out-of-the-box DA training algorithm built upon the Sinkhorn divergence, that can achieve effective domain alignment with minimal hyperparameter tuning and computational overhead. We demonstrate the efficacy of our method on multiple simulated and real datasets of varying complexity, including simple shapes, handwritten digits, real astronomical observations, and remote sensing data. These datasets exhibit covariate shifts due to noise, blurring, differences between telescopes, and variations in imaging wavelengths. SIDDA is compatible with a variety of NN architectures, and it works particularly well in improving classification accuracy and model calibration when paired with symmetry-aware equivariant NNs (ENNs). We find that SIDDA consistently enhances the generalization capabilities of NNs, achieving up to a ${\approx}40\%$ improvement in classification accuracy on unlabeled target data, while also providing a more modest performance gain of $\lesssim 1\%$ on labeled source data. We also study the efficacy of DA on ENNs with respect to the varying group orders of the dihedral group DN, and find that the model performance improves as the degree of equivariance increases. Finally, if SIDDA achieves proper domain alignment, it also enhances model calibration on both source and target data, with the most significant gains in the unlabeled target domain—achieving over an order of magnitude improvement in the expected calibration error and Brier score. SIDDA’s versatility across various NN models and datasets, combined with its automated approach to domain alignment, has the potential to significantly advance multi-dataset studies by enabling the development of highly generalizable models.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Excitons in fractionally filled moiré superlattices

Long-range Coulomb forces give rise to correlated insulating states when charge particles populate a moiré superlattice at certain fractional filling factors. Such behavior is characterized by a broken translation symmetry wherein particles spontaneously form a Wigner crystal. Here, focusing on the experimental findings of Xu et al. [Nature (London) 587, 214 (2020)], we present a theory that captures the correlated insulating state of a fractionally filled moiré superlattice through the energy shift and change in oscillator strength of the exciton absorption resonance. The theory shows that the experimental findings can only be supported if the electrons reside in a charge-ordered state (i.e., electrons are not randomly distributed among the sites of the moiré superlattice). Furthermore, we explain why the energy shifts of exciton resonances are qualitatively different in cases where the superlattice is nearly empty compared with a superlattice whose sites are doubly occupied.

excitons↗

Quantum Computing for Energy-Related Applications

Growing interest in quantum computing and simulations have created opportunities for its deployment to improve processes pertaining to energy production, distribution, and consumption. While quantum computing is considered as a paradigm shift in our basic understanding of physical computation, effective implementation of quantum computing in energy applications also depends on progress and development in the dimensions of both quantum computing hardware and quantum computing algorithms. To fully address the status and future challenges of quantum information science (QIS) applied within the energy sector, in this presentation, we firstly summarize recent advancements on the applications of quantum computing to energy infrastructure and materials, complex energy system processes, advanced manufacturing, and energy system security. Then, we will demonstrate the results of quantum computing both on a simulator and a quantum device accessing from OLCF. Our first example is to use the variational quantum eigensolver (VQE) with a unitary coupled cluster with singles and doubles (UCCSD) ansatz to simulate a series of LixHyq molecules (q=-1, 0, +1). The obtained results showed that the quantum computing VQE-UCCSD is comparable to classical CCSD for small systems like LiH with respect to full configuration interaction (FCI). Targeting on CO2 capture application, our second example is to use VQE to quantify molecular vibrational energies and reaction pathways between CO2 and a simplified amine-based solvent model—NH3 to form H2NCOOH. This research showcases quantum computing applications in the study of CO2 capture reactions.

Duan, Yuhua↗

SIDDA: SInkhorn Dynamic Domain Adaptation

Modern neural networks (NNs) often do not generalize well in the presence of a "covariate shift"; that is, in situations where the training and test data distributions differ, but the conditional distribution of classification labels remains unchanged. In such cases, NN generalization can be reduced to a problem of learning more domain-invariant features. Domain adaptation (DA) methods include a range of techniques aimed at achieving this; however, these methods have struggled with the need for extensive hyperparameter tuning, which then incurs significant computational costs. In this work, we introduce SIDDA, an out-of-the-box DA training algorithm built upon the Sinkhorn divergence, that can achieve effective domain alignment with minimal hyperparameter tuning and computational overhead. We demonstrate the efficacy of our method on multiple simulated and real datasets of varying complexity, including simple shapes, handwritten digits, and real astronomical observations. SIDDA is compatible with a variety of NN architectures, and it works particularly well in improving classification accuracy and model calibration when paired with equivariant neural networks (ENNs). We find that SIDDA enhances the generalization capabilities of NNs, achieving up to a ≈40% improvement in classification accuracy on unlabeled target data. We also study the efficacy of DA on ENNs with respect to the varying group orders of the dihedral group DN, and find that the model performance improves as the degree of equivariance increases. Finally, we find that SIDDA enhances model calibration on both source and target data--achieving over an order of magnitude improvement in the ECE and Brier score. SIDDA's versatility, combined with its automated approach to domain alignment, has the potential to advance multi-dataset studies by enabling the development of highly generalizable models.

Pandya, Sneh [Northeastern U.]↗

Lensing Without Borders: Measurements of galaxy-galaxy lensing and projected galaxy clustering in DESI DR1

We present Galaxy-Galaxy Lensing measurements obtained by cross-correlating spectroscopically observed galaxies from the first data release of the Dark Energy Spectroscopic Instrument (DESI) with source galaxies from the Hyper Suprime-Cam Subaru Strategic Survey, the Kilo-Degree Survey, the Sloan Digital Sky Survey, and the Dark Energy Survey. Specifically, we measure the excess surface mass density $ΔΣ$ and tangential shear $γ_\mathrm{t}$ for the Bright Galaxy Sample and Luminous Red Galaxies measured within the first year of observations with DESI. To ensure robustness, we test the measurements for systematic biases, finding no significant trends related to the properties of the \acrshort{desi} lens galaxies. We identify a significant trend with the average redshift of source galaxies, however, this trend vanishes once we apply shifts to the Hyper Suprime-Cam Subaru Strategic Survey redshift distributions that are also favored by their fiducial cosmology analysis. Additionally, we compare the observed scatter in the measurements with the theoretical covariance and find excess scatter, driven primarily by small-scale measurements of $r\leq 1 \, \mathrm{Mpc}/h$; measurements on larger scales are consistent at the $2\,σ$ level. We further present the projected clustering measurements $w_p$ of the galaxy samples in the the first data release of DESI. These measurements, which will be made publicly available, serve as a foundation for forthcoming cosmological analyses.

Heydenreich, S. [Lick Observ.] (ORCID:000000027273↗

A Data-Driven Voltage Control Strategy for Distribution Grids With Distributed Energy Resources

Traditionally, distribution system control approaches have been model-based. The deployment of advanced metering infrastructure has provided electric utilities with the capability of data-driven control with real-time measurements. The shift from model-based to data-driven control represents a significant advancement in the management of distribution systems, offering a more adaptive approach to system control because of the ability to dynamically adapt to changing conditions without the need for system modeling. Here, in this paper, a behavioral data-driven control method is developed to provide voltage regulation to an actual distribution system by controlling the legacy devices and distributed energy resource (DER) assets. The studied distribution system has a load tap changer and three capacitor banks as the legacy devices and photovoltaic systems as the DERs. The performance of the proposed control algorithm is validated using a laboratory test bed setup considering multiple scenarios. The results show that the proposed control achieved 99% voltage regulation.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

Precision e + e − hemisphere masses in the dijet region with power corrections

We derive high-precision results for the e + e − heavy jet mass (HJM) dσ/dρ and dihemisphere mass (DHM) d 2 σ/(ds 1 ds 2 ) distributions, for s 1 ~ s 2 , in the dijet region. New results include: i) the N 3 LL resummation for HJM of large logarithms ln n (ρ) at small ρ including the exact two-loop non-global hemisphere soft function, the 4-loop cusp anomalous dimension and the 3-loop hard and jet functions, ii) N 3 LL results for DHM with resummation of logarithms ln(s 1,2 /Q 2 ) when there is no large separation between s 1 and s 2 , iii) profile functions for HJM to give results simultaneously valid in the peak and tail regions, iv) a complete two-dimensional basis of non-perturbative functions which can be used for double differential observables, that are needed for both HJM and DHM in the peak region, and v) an implementation of renormalon subtractions for large-angle soft radiation to $\mathcal{O}$ (α$^{3}_{s}$) together with a resummation of the additional large ln(Qρ/Λ QCD ) logarithms. Here Q is the e + e − center-of-mass energy. Our resummation results are combined with known fixed-order $\mathcal{O}$ (α$^{3}_{s}$) results and we discuss the convergence and remaining perturbative uncertainty in the cross section. We also prove that, at order 1/Q, the first moment of the HJM distribution involves an additional non-perturbative parameter compared to the power correction that shifts the tail of the spectrum (where 1 ≫ ρ ≫ Λ QCD /Q). This differs from thrust where a single non-perturbative parameter at order 1/Q describes both the first moment and the tail, and it disfavors models of power corrections employing a single non-perturbative parameter, such as the low-scale effective coupling model. In this paper we focus only on the dijet region, not the far-tail distribution for ρ ≳ 0.2 beyond which the trijet factorization and resummation become important.

Factorization↗

The Milky Way Stellar Halo Is Twisted and Doubly Broken: Insights from DESI DR2 Milky Way Survey Observation

Using K giants from the second data release (DR2) of the Dark Energy Spectroscopic Instrument (DESI) Milky Way Survey, we measure the shape, orientation, radial profile, and density anisotropies of the Milky Way (MW) stellar halo over 8 kpc < r GC < 200 kpc. We identify a triaxial stellar halo (axis ratio 10:8:7), 43° tilted from the disk, showing two break radii at ∼16 and ∼76 kpc, likely associated with Gaia-Sausage/Enceladus and the Large Magellanic Cloud (LMC), respectively. The inner stellar halo (<30 kpc) is oblate and aligned with the disk, whereas the outer stellar halo becomes prolate and perpendicular to the disk, consistent with the vast polar structure of MW satellites. The twisted halo may arise from the disk−halo angular momentum shift triggered by the infall of a massive satellite. The anisotropic density distribution of the stellar halo is also measured, with successful reidentification of the Hercules-Aquila Cloud North/South (HAC-N/S) overdensity and the Virgo overdensity (VOD). Break radii are found at 15 and 30 kpc for VOD and HAC-N/S, respectively. We identify the LMC transient density wake with a break radius at 60 kpc in the Pisces overdensity region. We also find new observational evidence of the LMC collective density wake, by showing a break radius at ∼100 kpc in the northern Galactic cap with a clear density peak at 90 kpc. In the end, we found that more metal-poor halo stars are more radially extended. Our results provide important clues to the assembly and evolution of the MW stellar halo under the standard cosmic structure formation framework.

Li, Songting [Shanghai Jiao Tong Univ. (China); DE↗

A317_Fast and Thermal Neutron Spectrum Dosimetry Measurements in the Advanced Test Reactor large-B and small-I Positions Following the Sixth Core Internals Change-out

The Advanced Test Reactor (ATR) has a wide variety of irradiation positions that have had experiments that were developed by users from around the world. Most experiment irradiations rely on thoroughly benchmarked numerical models. However, some irradiation positions in ATR are not as well- characterized and are complicated by spectral perturbations from control cylinder orientation. The “small I” and “large-B” irradiation positions are located nearby control cylinders and suffer from these flux perturbations from control cylinder orientations that change during an irradiation cycle to maintain the desired core power distribution. Models predicted that these types of position would exhibit both spectral shifts and amplitude changes in neutron flux, but few measurements have been conducted to benchmark these predictions. Recently, requalification testing was performed to confirm the operational readiness of the ATR following the completion of the Core Internals Change-out (CIC). These tests provided a unique opportunity to validate the analytical methods used to simulate the ATR because nearly all components in the reactor were in a clean as-built state, significantly reducing modelling uncertainties. One subset of the testing included characterization of the fast and thermal neutron flux in the “small-I” and “large-B” positions using silver, cobalt, and nickel neutron dosimetry. In contrast to typical irradiation cycles, the control cylinders were held in position during the post-CIC nuclear testing. The specific activity of these dosimeter wires was measured following two low-power tests with different control cylinder positions.

21 - SPECIFIC NUCLEAR REACTORS AND ASSOCIATED PLAN↗

The Carbon Budget of Land Conversion: Sugarcane Expansion and Implications for a Sustainable Bioenergy Landscape in Southeastern United States

The expansion of sugarcane onto land currently occupied by improved (IMP) and semi-native (SN) pastures will reshape the U.S. bioenergy landscape. We combined biometric, ground-based and eddy covariance methods to investigate the impact of sugarcane expansion across subtropical Florida on the carbon (C) budget over a 3-year rotation. With 2.3- and 5.1-fold increase in productivity over IMP and SN pastures, sugarcane displayed a C use efficiency (CUE; i.e., fraction of gross C uptake allocated to plant growth) of 0.59, well above that of pastures (0.31–0.23). Sugarcane also had greater C allocation to aboveground productivity and hence, harvestable biomass relative to IMP and SN. Cane heterotrophic respiration over the 3-year rotation (903 ± 335 gC m −2 year −1 ) was 1% and 14% higher than IMP and SN pastures, respectively. These soil C losses responded largely to disturbance over the first year after conversion (1510 ± 227 gC m −2 year −1 ) but declined in subsequent years to an average 599 ± 90 gC m −2 year −1 —well below those of IMP (933 ± 140 gC m −2 year −1 ) and SN (759 ± 114 gC m −2 year −1 ) pastures—despite a significant 40%–61% increase in soil C inputs. Soil C inputs, however, shifted from root-dominated in pastures to litter-dominated in sugarcane, with only 5% C allocation to roots. Reduced decomposition rates in sugarcane were likely driven by changes in the recalcitrance and distribution rather than the size of the newly incorporated soil C pool. As a result, we observed a rapid shift in the net ecosystem C balance (NECB) of sugarcane from a large source immediately following conversion to approaching the net C losses of IMP pastures only 2 years after conversion. The environmental cost of converting pasture to sugarcane underscores the importance of implementing management practices to harness the soil C storage potential of sugarcane in advancing a sustainable bioeconomy in Southeastern United States.

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗

Harnessing Virtual Power Plants Reliably: Enabling tools for increased observability, controllability, operation, and aggregation of distributed energy resources

Harnessing virtual power plants enhances the integration of distributed energy resources into utility grids for a sustainable energy future. Virtual power plants (VPPs) aggregate DERs to enhance resource adequacy and reduce emissions. U.S. utilities are exploring various technologies to manage DERs effectively. FERC Order 2222 allows DERs to participate in both wholesale and retail markets. Enhancing observability and controllability of behind-the-meter (BTM) DERs is essential for reliable grid operations. A hierarchical control architecture can improve coordination among residential energy resources. Field tests showed nearly 20% energy savings and 30% peak power reduction during grid events. Effective management of DERs requires enhanced situational awareness to prevent grid congestion. Integrating DER management systems (DERMS) with existing planning tools can improve operational security. Near-real-time grid models can validate optimal resource set points against resource uncertainty. Traditional uninterruptible power supplies (UPS) can be upgraded to support grid services and become part of VPPs. Upgrading UPS systems can reduce costs by 75% and unlock significant battery capacity. New battery management systems and grid-aware controllers are essential for optimizing UPS performance. Continued research and development are necessary to address challenges in integrating DERs into utility grids. Encouraging customer participation in pilot programs is vital for the evolution of VPPs. Here, the shift towards price-responsive DERs and VPPs is expected to enhance energy distribution efficiency.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

Efficient continuous Energy-Multigroup hybrid depletion scheme using the Shift Monte Carlo code. Part I: Energy condensation sensitivity analysis

Monte Carlo (MC) codes coupled to depletion solvers are increasingly used to provide high fidelity fuel cycle modeling capabilities. Here, these coupled depletion-MC tools produce accurate results in general but can experience nonphysical spatial oscillations when time steps are large or when a system’s dominance ratio approaches unity. Two substepping techniques have been developed previously to remedy and dampen these spatial oscillations without needing to reduce step sizes. The first approach relied on higher-order techniques to account for spectral changes within steps (extrapolation and interpolation techniques). The second approach used the first order perturbation (FOP) theory to account for the change in the one-group spatial flux distribution within steps. This paper develops a hybrid depletion methodology which, in a way, combines how the flux is handled in both substepping techniques. Specifically, the multigroup (MG) MC Shift code is used to update the flux distribution within steps rather than a one-group FOP solver. A fully reflected pincell is investigated, which is not spatially dependent in the MG representation. Thus, the analysis in this paper is an initial demonstration of hybrid depletion. An upcoming companion paper will focus on how the hybrid depletion dampens spatial oscillations. The hybrid depletion approach is verified to be consistent with previous constant extrapolation depletion (CED) methods. This paper finds that the hybrid CED exhibits some error in the eigenvalue and one group constants within macro steps. To address this discrepancy, a simple interpolation scheme (CELI) is investigated. This work found that CELI sufficiently addresses the discrepancy in spectrum for macro steps up to 100 days. Overall, this work demonstrates that the hybrid depletion method can significantly reduce the number of high fidelity MC executions in a MC-coupled depletion with an acceptable eigenvalue error.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

Comparisons of Montane Snow Water Equivalent Projections: Calculating Total Snow Mass in Regions with Projection Agreement and Divergence in the Western United States

Montane snowpack is a vital source of water in the western United States. Here, we use a large-ensemble approach to evaluate the agreement across 124 snow water equivalent (SWE) projections with statistically downscaled forcing between end-of-century (2076–95) and early twenty-first century (2106–35) periods. Comparisons were performed on dates corresponding with the end of winter (15 April) and midspring snowmelt (15 May) in five western U.S. domains. Using 1) the percent change to end-of-century SWE across different ensembles of snow projections and 2) the shift between early twenty-first century and end-of-century SWE distributions for each snow projection, we identified relationships between projections that were consistent across each domain. In low to midelevations, end-of-century SWE decreases were 48% and larger on 15 April. These regions had projected changes to SWE that were both high confidence and in relative agreement across projections. Despite this, the majority of 15 April SWE volume existed in higher elevations where the magnitude and direction (positive or negative) of SWE changes were most uncertain. The results of this study show that large-ensemble approaches can be used to measure coherence between snow projections and identify 1) the highest confidence changes to future snow water resources and 2) the locations and periods where and when improvements to snow projections would most benefit estimates of future snow water resources.

Climate models↗

Utility-Scale Operational Consequences for Solar Grid Services

This report delves into the critical aspects of grid services provided by solar inverter-based resources (IBRs), with an emphasis on the evolving landscape of microgrids, virtual power plants (VPPs), aggregators, and distributed energy resource management systems (DERMS). As the energy sector undergoes a transformative shift towards more decentralized and resilient grid architectures, understanding the multifaceted risks associated with these technologies becomes paramount. The report categorizes these risks into organizational, technical, and procedural domains, providing a thorough risk assessment framework that stakeholders can utilize to anticipate and mitigate potential issues. In addressing the increasing complexity of grid interconnections, the report highlights the importance of Cyber-Informed Engineering (CIE). By embedding engineering controls and cybersecurity measures into the early stages of system design, this approach aims to fortify grid infrastructure against emerging cyber threats. The analysis includes an exploration of best practices and strategies for integrating CIE principles to enhance grid security and resilience. To provide practical insights, the report conducts a detailed consequence analysis of various grid services and cyber mitigations that can be applied through the interconnection process. This analysis evaluates the potential impacts of different failure modes and vulnerabilities, offering a clear understanding of the consequences that could arise from disruptions within the energy grid. The findings are further enriched by a series of case studies that illustrate real-world scenarios and lessons learned from past incidents. Through this comprehensive examination of grid services and their criticality, the report aims to prepare industry professionals with the knowledge and tools necessary to navigate the complexities of modern energy systems. By providing a comprehensive approach that includes risk assessment, cybersecurity, and consequence analysis, solar stakeholders can more effectively guarantee the reliability, efficiency, and security of the energy grid.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

Rewarding Grid-Friendly Behavior: Estimating the Potential Bill Reduction and Load Shifting Benefits of Dynamic Prices

Shifting electric load from times of peak demand can be a key strategy to slow price growth as reducing peak demand avoids the cost of upgrading generation, transmission and distribution infrastructure. Utilities are releasing time-varying prices, such as time of use rates or dynamic prices, to incentivize grid-friendly load shifting. New dynamic price programs provide insight into the true cost of operating electricity grids and the potential economic benefits of load shifting. Program developers and device manufacturers need to understand the economic opportunities in terms of 1) the variation in prices across hours, days, and seasons; 2) the change in utility bills for customers who don’t shift load; and 3) the potential load shifted and economic value of different technologies if manufacturers or aggregators deploy price-responsive controls. This paper estimates possible impacts of dynamic price adoption and load shifting controls if customers paid the dynamic rate from one pilot program. Statistical analysis of historical prices identified annual and seasonal metrics as well as representative price curves for each circuit in the pilot. Simulations for residential technologies with price-responsive controls including unitary heat pump water heaters, central multifamily heat pump water heaters, heating & cooling + storage systems, and pool pumps estimated the potential impacts of highly dynamic prices both with and without load shifting controls. Results showed the potential to reduce electricity costs on representative days by 42-94% and reduce consumption during times of high electricity prices by 63-100% compared to baseline operation for those flex-friendly devices.

Grant, Peter↗