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Expanding the representation of aerosol, cloud, and precipitation processes with graph network-based simulators

We explored a novel framework for simulating the small-scale processes that drive the evolution of aerosol, cloud, and precipitation particles, which are a critical gap in the predictive understanding of weather and climate. Particle-based methods have emerged as an effective tool for modeling aerosol-cloud-precipitation interactions, but existing particle-based models are computationally too expensive to simulate the large domains relevant for the atmosphere or to represent the full suite of relevant processes. The lack of a comprehensive and efficient reference model is a critical bottleneck in our understanding of cloud and precipitation processes and our ability to parameterize these processes for regional- and global-scale simulations. To address this need, we explored an approach to accelerate and expand particle-based models using a new machine learning approach, graph network-based simulators (GNS). Rather than modeling the evolution of the system by numerically integrating continuity equations, the GNS represents dynamics through learned message passing. Our aim was to develop fast and accurate surrogate models for particle-based simulations. We explored applying GNS to simulate cloud droplet transport, growth, and evaporation under turbulent conditions, but we found the GNS over-smoothed the simulations. We then applied the GNS to simulate aerosol dynamics through gas condensation and found the GNS was able to reproduce the benchmark, physics-based simulation with high accuracy.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES

System Engineers and Decisions: It?s All about Knowledge

In order to guarantee that a system meets adequate levels of reliability and availability, system performances are continuously monitored and analyzed thanks to the technological advancements driving the Industry 4.0 revolution. An Industry 4.0 approach is typically based on advanced statistical, big data mining, machine learning, and internet-of-things methods designed to detect anomalies in the behavior of system, detect the most likely failure modes, and provide indications to system engineers on when maintenance activities should be performed before system performance are deemed unacceptable (which can be generated by diagnostic and prognostic methods). However, these analyses, which are designed to automatize and increase the efficacy of the system maintenance program, require large amount of data which can come in various forms: numeric, textual, images, sounds etc. Such data constitutes the historic knowledge benchmark to track system performances and support system engineer decisions. Here we claim that data is not sufficient to support this kind of analyses when applied to systems characterized by complex architectures and behaviors. Robust system engineer decisions require the ability to understand the system operational context that lies behind the observed data elements. In this respect, system models are in fact necessary to “put data in context” and capture relationships between data elements. Industry 4.0 methods require in fact contextual knowledge as a basis upon which hypotheses can be generated and assumptions tested. In our view, for complex systems, model-based system engineering (MBSE) models can afford this contextual knowledge, as they are typically used to describe systems architecture and dynamic behaviors. System knowledge is here intended as the blending of collected data and system architecture which takes the form of a “knowledge graph”. A knowledge graph is a database which consists of a large set of nodes (in our case an entity can be either a data or an MBSE element) which are linked to each other. The types of nodes and links follow a pre-defined topology, sometimes also refers as an ontology, that is designed to fit the actual decisions that needs to be performed. We show here how a knowledge graph can be defined to support system engineer maintenance decisions and how the same graph can be built based on system MBSE models and pre-processed data from numeric (through anomaly detections and diagnostic methods) and textual elements (through technical language processing TLP).

97 - MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING

Stochastic finite volume method for uncertainty quantification of transient flow in gas pipeline networks

We develop a weakly intrusive framework to simulate the propagation of uncertainty in solutions of generic hyperbolic partial differential equation systems on graph-connected domains with nodal coupling and boundary conditions. The method is based on the Stochastic Finite Volume (SFV) approach and can be applied for uncertainty quantification (UQ) of the dynamical state of fluid flow over actuated transport networks. The numerical scheme has specific advantages for modeling intertemporal uncertainty in time-varying boundary parameters, which cannot be characterized by strict upper and lower (interval) bounds. We describe the scheme for a single pipe, and then formulate the controlled junction Riemann problem (JRP) that enables the extension to general network structures. In conclusion, we demonstrate the method's capabilities and performance characteristics using a standard benchmark test network.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING

Studying CPU and memory utilization of applications on Fujitsu A64FX and Nvidia Grace Superchip

ARM-based manycore CPU architectures are well-positioned to provide the rising memory throughput requirements of modern data intensive scientific applications in High Performance Computing (HPC). The Fujitsu A64FX CPU platform is based on the ARM v8.2A architecture, and is the processor of the flagship Japanese supercomputer - "Fugaku", which was previously ranked as the #1 supercomputer in the world according to the Top500 list. The Nvidia Grace superchip features 144 Neoverse V2 cores based on the ARMv9 architecture with 4x128b SVE2, providing exceptional computational power. The chip supports up to 480GB of memory, making it ideal for AI, machine learning, and scientific computing workloads. In this paper, we conduct a thorough performance exploration of a variety of parallel bandwidth-sensitive benchmarks and applications compiled with the native Fujitsu compiler on a Fugaku A64FX compute node and ARM (LLVM) Compiler on an NVIDIA Grace superchip compute node, engaging all the computational cores per cluster using OpenMP multithreading (assuming the cores can drive the available bandwidth). Our ultimate goals are to study the resource utilization of scientific applications and benchmarks on A64FX and Grace superchip, considering graph application scenarios ( GAP Benchmark suite) and eleven appli- cation proxies from the Rodinia heterogeneous benchmark suite (considering domains such as Data Mining, Bioinformatics, Fluid Dynamics, Pattern Recognition, etc.). Through exhaustive performance monitoring, we quantify the resource utilization of diverse OpenMP-based HPC applications on both the Fujitsu A64FX and the Nvidia Grace Superchip platforms.

benchmarking, Performance Analysis, High performan

Analyzing inference workloads for spatiotemporal modeling

Ensuring power grid resiliency, forecasting climate conditions, and optimization of transportation infrastructure are some of the many application areas where data is collected in both space and time. Spatiotemporal modeling is about modeling those patterns for forecasting future trends and carrying out critical decision-making by leveraging machine learning/deep learning. Once trained offline, field deployment of trained models for near real-time inference could be challenging because performance can vary significantly depending on the environment, available compute resources and tolerance to ambiguity in results. Users deploying spatiotemporal models for solving complex problems can benefit from analytical studies considering a plethora of system adaptations to understand the associated performance-quality trade-offs. To facilitate the co-design of next-generation hardware architectures for field deployment of trained models, it is critical to characterize the workloads of these deep learning (DL) applications during inference and assess their computational patterns at different levels of the execution stack. In this paper, we develop several variants of deep learning applications that use spatiotemporal data from dynamical systems. We study the associated computational patterns for inference workloads at different levels, considering relevant models (Long short-term Memory, Convolutional Neural Network and Spatio-Temporal Graph Convolution Network), DL frameworks (Tensorflow and PyTorch), precision (FP16, FP32, AMP, INT16 and INT8), inference runtime (ONNX and AI Template), post-training quantization (TensorRT) and platforms (Nvidia DGX A100 and Sambanova SN10 RDU). Overall, our findings indicate that although there is potential in mixed-precision models and post-training quantization for spatiotemporal modeling, extracting efficiency from contemporary GPU systems might be challenging. Instead, co-designing custom accelerators by leveraging optimized High Level Synthesis frameworks (such as SODA High-Level Synthesizer for customized FPGA/ASIC targets) can make workload-specific adjustments to enhance the efficiency.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING

Cluster-Graph Fingerprinting: A Framework for Quantitative Analysis of Machine-Learned Interatomic Model Training and Simulation Data

Machine-learned interatomic models represent a significant advancement in simulation methods, extending the predictive ability of first-principles methods to previously inaccessible length and time scales. However, the data-driven nature of these models can lead to difficult-to-detect errors that can compromise prediction accuracy. To address this challenge, we introduce a novel fingerprinting approach based on the Chebyshev Interaction Model for Efficient Simulation (ChIMES) ML-IAM graph-based descriptor. Our strategy enables efficient and statistically rigorous analysis of system configurations used in ML-IAM training and those generated by their application, e.g., in molecular dynamics simulations. We demonstrate that these fingerprints can effectively assess novelty of a configuration relative to an existing data set and determine dissimilarity among individual configurations, which are two key tasks in workflows for active learning-based ML-IAM training, data set curation, and on-the-fly uncertainty quantification.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE

Deciphering the Solvation Structure of Aqueous ZnCl 2 Solutions from X-ray Absorption Spectra Using the Interpretable Graph Neural Network

Machine learning (ML) provides powerful pathways for predicting spectroscopic observables from atomic structures, but its broader impact depends on making model predictions interpretable in terms of physical and chemical principles. Here, we introduce a physics-guided graph neural network (GNN) model that predicts Zn K-edge X-ray spectroscopy (XAS) spectra of aqueous ZnCl 2 solutions. Training data are generated from ab initio XAS calculations on molecular dynamics snapshots obtained using a machine learning interatomic potential. The GNN reproduces experimental spectra across concentrations from dilute (<0.1 m) to highly concentrated (30 m, “water-in-salt”) regimes and scales efficiently to large, disordered liquid systems beyond the reach of conventional ab initio approaches. Gradient-based attribution analysis reveals that the model learns physically meaningful structure-spectrum relationships. Ligand-specific attributions reflect orbital hybridization patterns and the origin of the excitations derived from the density functional theory. Bond-length attributions recover spectral shifts consistent with multiple-scattering theory. Finally, this work bridges data-driven prediction with electronic-structure theory, establishing a general paradigm for interpretable ML that links atomic structure, electronic structure, and spectroscopic observables.

25 ENERGY STORAGE

Street-level temperature estimation using graph neural networks: Performance, feature embedding and interpretability

Estimating street-level air temperature is a challenging task due to the highly heterogeneous urban surfaces, canyon-like street morphology, and the diverse physical processes in the built environment. Though pioneering studies have embarked on investigations via data-driven approaches, many questions remain to be answered. Here, in this study, we leveraged an innovative framework and redefined the street-level temperature estimation problem using Graph Neural Networks (GNN) with spatial embedding techniques. The results showed that GNN models are more capable and consistent of estimating street-level temperature among tested locations, benefiting from its unique strength in handling extensive data over unstructured graph topology. In addition, we conducted in-depth analysis of feature importance to enhance the model interpretability. Among the urban features analyzed in this study, the time-variant canopy density and meter-level land use data emerge as crucial factors. Our findings highlight GNN 's high potential in capturing the complex dynamics between urban elements and their impacts on microclimate, thus offering valuable insights for comprehensive urban data collection and urban climate modeling in general. Collectively, this study also contributes to urban planning and policy by providing avenues to enhance city resilience against climate change, thereby advancing the agenda for environmental stewardship and urban sustainability.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES

Estimating CO 2 fluxes through integrating spatial and temporal input layers via deep learning algorithms

Background Accurate estimation of net ecosystem exchange of CO 2 fluxes (Fc) is essential for understanding carbon cycle processes and assessing ecosystem carbon budgets. However, conventional modeling approaches often emphasize temporal dynamics while overlooking the pronounced spatial heterogeneity within the footprint of eddy covariance (EC) towers, potentially limiting predictive accuracy and interpretability of Fc estimates. To address this challenge, we developed a spatiotemporal model that integrates high-resolution footprint-weighted spatial information with sequential environmental drivers. Results The integrated model combines a deeper graph convolutional network to characterize fine-scale spatial variability within EC footprints and a gated recurrent unit network to capture temporal dependencies in biophysical conditions. Using multi-year flux tower observations, remote sensing vegetation indices and footprint modeling, we evaluate the proposed method across three land cover types. This spatiotemporal model consistently outperforms temporal-only and spatial-only baselines, achieving the highest overall accuracy (R 2 = 0.9569) and the lowest RMSE (1.8128 μmol m −2 s −1 ) and MAE (1.1939 μmol m −2 s −1 ). Performance gains are particularly evident in ecosystems with strong vegetation heterogeneity, where spatial structure substantially modulates Fc variability. Conclusions This study demonstrates the importance of joint modeling spatial heterogeneity and temporal dynamics for improving Fc estimation and provides a robust method for advancing footprint-based Fc estimates across diverse ecosystems, supporting refined assessments of terrestrial carbon fluxes, and enhancing scientific foundations for carbon studies.

CO2 flux estimate

Quantum Routing and Entanglement Dynamics Through Bottlenecks

To implement arbitrary quantum circuits in architectures with restricted interactions, one may effectively simulate all-to-all connectivity by routing quantum information. We consider the entanglement dynamics and routing between two regions only connected through an intermediate “bottleneck” region with few qubits. In such systems, where the entanglement rate is restricted by a vertex boundary rather than an edge boundary of the underlying interaction graph, existing results such as the small incremental entangling theorem give only a trivial constant lower bound on the routing time (the minimum time to perform an arbitrary permutation). We significantly improve the lower bound on the routing time in systems with a vertex bottleneck. Specifically, for any system with two regions 𝐿,𝑅 with 𝑁 𝐿 ,𝑁 𝑅 qubits, respectively, coupled only through an intermediate region 𝐶 with 𝑁 𝐶 qubits, for any 𝛿 > 0 we show a lower bound of Ω⁢(𝑁$^{1−𝛿}_{𝑅}$/√𝑁 𝐿⁢ 𝑁 𝐶 ) on the Hamiltonian quantum routing time when using piecewise time-independent Hamiltonians, or time-dependent Hamiltonians subject to a smoothness condition. We also prove an upper bound on the average amount of bipartite entanglement between 𝐿 and 𝐶,𝑅 that can be generated in time 𝑡 by such architecture-respecting Hamiltonians in systems constrained by vertex bottlenecks, improving the scaling in the system size from 𝑂⁡(𝑁 𝐿⁢ 𝑡) to 𝑂⁡(√𝑁 𝐿⁢ 𝑡). As a special case, when applied to the star graph (i.e., one vertex connected to 𝑁 leaves), we obtain an Ω⁡(√𝑁 1−𝛿 ) lower bound on the routing time and on the time to prepare 𝑁/2 Bell pairs between the vertices. We also show that, in systems of free particles, we can route optimally on the star graph in time Θ⁡(√𝑁) using Hamiltonian quantum routing, obtaining a speedup over gate-based routing, which takes time Θ⁡(𝑁).

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING

Matching Curved Lattices to Anisotropic Tangent Planes

Radial quantization would be the ideal formalism for studying strongly-coupled near-conformal quantum field theories but it requires the ability to perform lattice calculations on static, curved manifolds, specifically a very long cylinder whose cross section is a sphere. Smoothly discretizing the surface of a sphere requires a graph with unequal edge lengths. The geometry of such graphs is well understood since 1961 using Regge Calculus. But, lattice quantum field theories are defined in terms of couplings which appear in the action rather than edge lengths and so the relationship between couplings and lengths must be determined dynamically. A simple example is computing the ratio of spatial to temporal lattice spacings in anisotropic lattice QCD. I will discuss our conjecture that computing anisotropic lattice spacing ratios on affine transformations of regular flat lattices is sufficient to determine coupling assignments on curved lattices.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS

Block Island Noise Modeling Data

Noise propagation near Block Island was simulated to assess environmental impacts of impact pile driving during wind turbine construction. Computational models complement field-recorded acoustic data, providing insights into sound attenuation, spectral variability, and propagation dynamics. The dataset includes: 1. Propagation Models: Simulated underwater sound fields documenting sound pressure and directional variability across frequency bands and distances. 2. Spectral Analysis (LTSA): Long-term averages and processed outputs calculating acoustic intensity over time. 3. Visualization Files: Graphs, 2D/3D simulation results, and reference calculations used in sound modeling.

17 WIND ENERGY

HydraGNN_Predictive_GFM_2024 - Ensemble of predictive graph foundation models for ground state atomistic materials modeling

We provide the ensemble of fifteen pre-trained graph foundation models (GFMs) for atomistic materials modeling applications. Each one of the fifteen GFMs has been trained on five open-source datasets that (once aggregated) amount to over 154 million atomistic structures, which cover over two-thirds of the natural elements of the periodic table and that comprises a broad set of organic and inorganic compounds. This vast set of atomistic structures comprises ground state configurations that are dynamically stable (i.e., equilibrated structures with atomic forces approximately close to zero values) as well as dynamically unstable structures (i.e., non-equilibrium structures with non-negligible non-zero values of atomic forces). The ensemble of datasets aggregated does NOT include excited states. The datasets have been curated to remove atomistic structures with spectral norm of the force tensor above 100 eV/angstrom. Moreover, a linear term of the energy was computed for each dataset using a linear regression model that uses the chemical concentration of each natural element as regressor. The linear term predicted by the linear regression model has been subtracted from each original energy value to perform a re-alignment of the energy values across different electronic structures approximation theories performed to generate the diverse multi-source, multi-fidelity datasets. The folder "ADIOS_files" contains the set of pre-processed datasets in Adaptable I/O System (ADIOS) format (https://www.exascaleproject.org/research-project/adios/) that have been used for the development and training of GFMs in this work. The "ADIOS_files" directory contains 6 sub-directories named as follows: - ANI1x-v3.bp - MPTrj-v3.bp - OC2020-20M-v3.bp - OC2020-v3.bp - OC2022-v3.bp - qm7x-v3.bp Each sub-directory contains the pre-processed datasets converted in Adaptable I/O System (ADIOS) format (https://www.exascaleproject.org/research-project/adios/) that have been used to the development, training, and performance testing of the ensemble go predictive graph foundation models. Each GFM was developed using HydraGNN (https://github.com/ORNL/HydraGNN) as underlying graph neural network (GNN) architecture. The multi-task learning (MTL) capability of HydraGNN was used to simultaneously train the GFMs on labeled values for direct predictions of energy (a total system property of an atomistic structure that measures the chemical stability) and atomic forces (an atomic level property of an atomistic structure that measures the dynamical stability). The hyper parameters of the GFM have been tuned using scalable hyperparameter optimization (HPO) algorithms implemented in the software DeepHyper (https://github.com/deephyper/deephyper). The pre-training of each HPO trial was performed using distributed data parallelism (DDP) to scale the training across 128 compute nodes of the exascale OLCF supercomputer Frontier. Each HPO trial was trained only for 10 epochs and an early stopping was performed to avoid wasting significant computational resources on GNN architectures that were clearly underperforming. For each HPO trial, the 'omnistat' tool developed by (AMD Research - Advanced Micro Device) was used to measure the total energy consumption in kWh. The ensemble of GFMs was obtained by selecting the fifteen best performing HPO trials. Four models have been selected for their clear advantage in accuracy, and these are the GFMs with IDs 229, 156, 147, 260. Additional eleven models have been selected based on judicious balance between accuracy and energy consumption needed for training, and these are the GFMs with IDs 165, 78, 137, 1, 175, 171, 181, 67, 179, 167, 351. Each selected GFM of the ensemble was continued to cumulate a total of at most 30 epochs. In some cases, the total number of epochs actually performed was les than 30 due to two combined factors: (1) the size of the GFM (i.e., the number of model parameters to train) and (2) the total wall-clock time for which the computational resources could be allocated on OLCF-Frontier. The "Ensemble_of_models" directory contains 15 sub-directories named as follows: - gfm_0.229 - gfm_0.156 - gfm_0.147 - gfm_0.260 - gfm_0.165 - gfm_0.78 - gfm_0.137 - gfm_0.1 - gfm_0.175 - gfm_0.171 - gfm_0.181 - gfm_0.67 - gfm_0.179 - gfm_0.167 - gfm_0.351 Each one of these sub-directories refers to one of the fifteen HPO trials that have been selected to continue the pre-training with at most 30 epochs. With each sub-directory associated with a specific HPO trial, the following files can be found: - config.json: file for argument parsing to develop and train an HydraGNN architecture - gfm_0.ID_epoch_N.pk: file with model parameters for HPO ID trial after N epochs of training The ensemble of fifteen GFM architectures was used for (1) ensemble averaging to stabilize the predictions of energy and atomic forces after pre-training for post-processing analysis and (2) ensemble uncertainty quantification (UQ). The code used to develop, pre-train, and load the pre-trained models for post-processing analysis is available on the ORNL-GitHub at the following link: https://github.com/ORNL/HydraGNN/tree/Predictive_GFM_2024

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE

Many-body entanglement in solid-state emitters

The preparation and control of quantum states lie at the heart of quantum information science. Recent advances in solid-state quantum emitters (QEs) and nanophotonics have transformed the landscape of quantum photonic technologies, enabling scalable generation of quantum states of light and matter. A new frontier in solid-state quantum photonics is the engineering of many-body interactions between QEs and photons to achieve robust coherence and controllable many-body entanglement. These entangled states, including photonic graph and cluster states, superradiant emission and emergent quantum phases, are promising for quantum computation, sensing and simulation. However, intrinsic inhomogeneities and decoherence in solid-state platforms pose considerable challenges in realizing such complex entangled states. This Review provides an overview of fundamental many-body interactions and dynamics at the light–matter interfaces of solid-state QEs and discusses recent advances in mitigating decoherence and harnessing robust many-body coherence.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE

Role of the chiral anomaly in polarized deeply inelastic scattering. III. Wess-Zumino-Witten contributions and chiral Ward identities for finite quark mass

We extend our prior results on the worldline computation of the axial vector-vector-vector (AVV) triangle anomaly in polarized deeply inelastic scattering (DIS) to the finite mass case by computing in addition the pseudoscalar-vector-vector (PVV) triangle graph. For the well-studied QED case, we show explicitly how the off-forward AVV pole exactly cancels an identical PVV pole. We then demonstrate the dramatic difference in QCD due to the chiral condensate, which qualitatively modifies anomalous Ward identities. As in the massless case, the anomaly pole in QCD is canceled by the dynamics of a primordial isosinglet pseudoscalar η ¯ -meson, whose Wess-Zumino-Witten coupling to the topological charge density shifts the pole to the physical η ′ mass, with the finite quark mass contribution differing by O ( 10 % ) from the Witten-Veneziano formula. We obtain a compact analytic expression for the finite mass corrections to Shore and Veneziano’s result that the proton’s net quark helicity Δ Σ ∝ χ QCD ′ | m = 0 ( 0 ) , the forward slope of the topological susceptibility in the chiral limit, and show they are of the order of a few percentages. Our prior prediction that the polarized DIS structure function g 1 is quenched by sphaleronlike topological transitions at small x is unaffected by quark mass effects. Our results illustrate how worldline computations of anomalous processes, in synergy with lattice computations and nonet chiral perturbation theory, can uncover novel nonperturbative features of QCD at the Electron-Ion Collider. Published by the American Physical Society 2025

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS

Graph-based design of irregular metamaterials

In the field of metamaterial research, random structures offer a novel and less conventional approach compared to traditional periodic designs. Designing random metamaterials is challenging when it comes to ensuring intercon- nectivity, which is essential for manufacturability. This study introduces an innovative framework for generating random metamaterials using graph al- gorithms, ensuring connectivity and adaptability across various base shapes, including cylinders, triangles, pyramids, and cubes. By employing graph algorithms, our framework enhances the intuitiveness and efficiency of de- sign representation and manipulation, streamlining the design process. The framework generates families of designs that exhibit a wide range of prop- erty magnitudes that can be adjusted intuitively by modifying the input parameters. The rapid design process allows many designs to be generated, offering the user a multitude of solutions around the target property range. The designs can be effectively implemented in various fields and subjected to diverse analytical studies, including static, dynamic, and eigenfrequency assessments. We illustrate computational results for two key properties (stiff- ness and acoustic impedance), showcasing the method’s effectiveness through examples ranging from rod-based to cube-based designs. Here, the framework not only advances metamaterial research but also creates new opportunities for innovation in fields requiring customized material properties.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE

Soft factorisation and exponentiation from Schwinger-space geometry

Infrared divergences in Quantum Field Theory govern the low-energy dynamics of many physical theories, and their understanding is a crucial ingredient in predicting the outcomes of collider experiments. We present a novel approach to deriving the structure of these divergences by employing the Schwinger parametrization of Feynman integrals. After using tropical geometry to identify divergent limits, we study the all-orders asymptotic properties of Feynman diagrams via matrix manipulations of graph Laplacians, which allows us to analyse their IR behaviour systematically. We explicitly demonstrate the soft-hard factorization of the integrand for a broad class of diagrams, and reveal that when written in terms of worldline distances, topologically distinct diagrams asymptote to the same integrand at leading order in the soft limit. In particular, for the case of Quantum Electrodynamics (with massive fermions), we use this fact to show how ladder-type diagrams combine in Schwinger-parameter space to yield the correct exponentiated soft anomalous dimension. This framework provides a foundation for extending these methods to more complex theories like Quantum Chromodynamics and offers a pathway towards a systematic understanding of infrared divergences in perturbative amplitudes.

Factorization

Application of Modified Meshgraphnets for Subsurface Prediction during CO2 Sequestration

In the face of the increasingly dire consequences of anthropogenic climate change, capturing and storing carbon dioxide is paramount. However, several impediments exist to the safe and effective subsurface storage of CO2, such as cost of transport, identification of suitable sites for subsurface storage, and assessment of long-term risk from storage in subsurface aquifers. Accurate subsurface modeling is necessary to ensure that CO2 storage is both safe and effective. Still, such modeling has traditionally required either substantial time and computational power (numerical simulation) or a substantial amount of pre-existing data for training (machine learning models). Additionally, these models lack flexibility in dealing with both changes in discretization of the input data and generalizability beyond the data on which they are trained. In order to address these issues, this research applies graph neural networks (GNNs) to predict subsurface saturation and pressure during CO₂ injection in a model of the Illinois Basin-Decatur Project (IBDP). GNNs provide a flexible, intuitive method for representing and manipulating complex unstructured data, which is often found in many practical domain problems such as fluid flow and subsurface characterization. These unstructured grids are easily represented in GNNs by representing spatially-localized features such as permeability, porosity, saturation, and pressure as nodes in a graph and relationships between these properties as edges connecting these nodes. This research applies a specific GNN model called MeshGraphNets (MGN) to model the change in CO2 saturation and pressure over a 50-month time period (36 months of injection, 14 months post-injection). The MGN model leverages a message passing process that allows the network to learn both the spatial and temporal dynamics of this system simultaneously. Additionally, training on a limited dataset (64 realizations, 20 time points each) resulted in a high degree of accuracy in saturation prediction both within the same timeframe as the training (20 months, 0.039 average RMSE) and when projecting out to the end of injection (36 months, 0.053 average RMSE). Temporal predictions such as those generated by MGNs and other similar models are prone to accumulated error over time; in order to address this, a multi-step rollout (MSR) training process was applied to calculate training loss. This method mimics the forward prediction during inference by “rolling out” multiple time points in a single training step using the previous prediction as input to the MGN model. By calculating the loss several time steps forward from the current prediction, the model is forced to find a more stable state over time. Application of MSR to the MGN model resulted in an average 15% reduction in inference error over time during forward prediction. This study showcases the immense potential of GNNs as a game-changing methodology for predicting pressure and saturation evolution in CCS projects, ultimately paving the way for more sustainable and effective carbon storage solutions. Presentation prepared for the 2024 AiChE Annual Meeting, October 27 to November 1 2024, San Diego, CA.

Holcomb, Paul