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At least 91 records · Page 5

Inferring Instantaneous, Multivariate and Nonlinear Sensitivities for the Analysis of Feedback Processes in a Dynamical System: Lorenz Model Case Study

A new approach is presented for the analysis of feedback processes in a nonlinear dynamical system by observing its variations. The new methodology consists of statistical estimates of the sensitivities between all pairs of variables in the system based on a neural network modeling of the dynamical system. The model can then be used to estimate the instantaneous, multivariate and nonlinear sensitivities, which are shown to be essential for the analysis of the feedbacks processes involved in the dynamical system. The method is described and tested on synthetic data from the low-order Lorenz circulation model where the correct sensitivities can be evaluated analytically.

Aires, Filipe↗

Hybrid Glacier Inventory, Gravimetry and Altimetry (HIGA) Mass Balance Product for Greenland and the Canadian Arctic

We present a novel inversion algorithm that generates a mass balance field that is simultaneously consistent with independent observations of glacier inventory derived from optical imagery, cryosphere-attributed mass trends derived from satellite gravimetry, and ice surface elevation trends derived from airborne and satellite altimetry. We use this algorithm to assess mass balance across Greenland and the Canadian Arctic over the Sep-2003 to Oct- 2009 period at 26 kilometers resolution. We evaluate local algorithm-inferred mass balance against forty in situ point observations. This evaluation yields a root mean squared error (RMSE) of 0.15 mWE/a ( 0.15 meters (water equivalent) per annum), and highlights a paucity of in situ observations from regions of high dynamic mass loss and peripheral glaciers. We assess mass losses of 212 plus or minus 67 Gigatons per annum to the Greenland ice sheet proper, 38 Gigatons per annum to peripheral glaciers in Greenland, and 42 Gigatons per annum to glaciers in the Canadian Arctic. These magnitudes of mass loss are dependent on the gravimetry-derived spherical harmonic mass trend we invert. We spatially partition the transient glacier continuity equation by differencing algorithm inferred mass balance from modeled surface mass balance, in order to solve the horizontal divergence of ice flux as a residual. This residual ice dynamic field infers flux divergence (or submergent flow) in the ice sheet accumulation area and at tidewater margins, and flux convergence (or emergent flow) in land-terminating ablation areas, which is consistent with continuum mechanics theory.

Altimetry↗

Objective method for analysis and tracking of convective cells as seen by radar

A special method has been developed for the study of cells that are embedded in convective rain systems. This method consists of a package of computer programs that use pattern recognition techniques on three-dimensional digital radar data to identify the rain cells, track them with time, and calculate their properties. The product of the computations is a comprehensive database of physically meaningful properties of rain cells, which can be used to infer the internal structure and the dynamics of convective rain systems. The cell-tracking method has been applied to the summer convective clouds of south Florida for the following purposes: (1) derivation of the relationship between the echo top height and the precipitation characteristics (e.g., area, water yield, rain intensity and duration of the rain cells); (2) study of the microphysical behaviorof cumulus clouds in relation to their cell properties; (3) evaluation of the effect of seeding on cumulus clouds on the cell scale; and (4) examination of cloud-to-ground lightning discharges in relation to convective cell intensity. The cell-tracking method is also currently being used in rain enhancement projects in Texas, Israel, and South Africa. The cell-tracking method, its products and their use in meteorological research are described in this paper.

Rosenfeld, Daniel↗

Hot oxygen geocorona as inferred from neutral exospheric models and mass spectrometer measurements

Summer hot oxygen densities of 10,000-30,000 per cubic cm at 1100 km (or 100,000-300,000 at 550 km) for low to moderate solar activities are inferred from differences between satellite drag and mass-spectrometer-based models. At high solar activities, densities at 925 km from 100,000-400,000 (or 5 x 10 to the 5th to 2 x 10 to the 6th at 550 km) are inferred from a limited number of Dynamics Explorer mass spectrometer measurements. The densities are of the same order as those reported previously from ground-based optical measurements. It is pointed out that a detailed theoretical calculation of the hot oxygen distribution consistent with the cool populations in mass-spectrometer-based models would provide the basis for a more complete interpretation of mass spectrometer data and of high-altitude differences between drag-based and mass-spectrometer-based models. It is concluded that hot oxygen could be providing the major contribution to satellite drag in the summer lower exosphere during low solar activity.

Hedin, A. E.↗

Dynamics of the Jovian magnetosphere and energetic particle radiation

Inferences are drawn from Jovian magnetosphere data acquired in the flybys of Pioneer 10 and Pioneer 11. Data on the outer magnetosphere and the inner core, and on observed 10-hr variations in particle intensity, are summarized, with attention given to the immense size and complexity of the magnetosphere and the behavior of trapped charged particles. The data support the maintenance and acceleration of charged particles trapped in Jupiter's magnetic field by inward diffusion in violation of the third adiabatic invariant. Prodigious quantities of high-energy particles are found to escape from Jupiter into interplanetary space, and MHD waves in the circumjovian plasma are considered. Whether the 10-hr variations are spatial or temporal in origin is weighed in favor of the latter. Production and loss mechanisms for the particles, and the nature of the Jovian magnetosphere itself, are noted among questions remaining obscure.

Simpson, J. A.↗

On the determination of the Hermaean magnetic moment - A critical review

The determination of Mercury's magnetic moment from the spatially and temporally limited observations obtained by the Mariner 10 mission is dependent upon the assumed nature of both the intrinsic planetary magnetic field and that of the magnetospheric current systems. In this paper the methods that have been used for this purpose are reviewed. The results that have been obtained are then considered in comparison with the constraints placed on the planetary field by the solar wind dynamic pressures and stand-off distances inferred from the Mariner 10 magnetic field data by Slavin and Holtzer (1979) which are consistent with an effective dipole moment of 6 + or - 2 x 10 to the 22nd G cu cm. It is found that the models which fit the observations with substantial quadrupole and octupole moments are not consistent with the magnetospheric boundary conditions, presumably owing to incorrect assumptions regarding the magnetopause position, incorrect assumptions regarding solar wind dynamic pressure, and/or averaging over temporal variations in the Mariner 10 data.

Slavin, J. A.↗

Globular cluster formation - The fossil record

Properties of globular clusters which have remained unchanged since their formation are used to infer the internal pressures, cooling times, and dynamical times of the protocluster clouds immediately prior to the onset of star formation. For all globular clusters examined, it is found that the cooling times are much less than the dynamical times, implying that the protoclusters must have been maintained in thermal equilibrium by external heat sources, with fluxes consistent with those found in previous work, and giving the observed rho-T relation. Self-gravitating clouds cannot be stably heated, so that the Jeans mass forms an upper limit to the cluster masses. The observed dependence of protocluster pressure upon galactocentric position implies that the protocluster clouds were in hydrostatic equilibrium after their formation. The pressure dependence is well fitted by that expected for a quasi-statically evolving background hot gas, shock heated to its virial temperature. The observations and inferences are combined with previous theoretical work to construct a picture of globular cluster formation.

Murray, Stephen D.↗

Dynamical constraints on the formation and evolution of planetary bodies

The present investigation is concerned with a number of inferences as to the origin of planetary bodies, taking into account the present dynamical state of the solar system and some of the limitations which apply to the considered conclusions. Attention is given to the dynamical processes, specifically those processes which may have influenced the orbital or rotational properties of the planets and satellites. Collisional processes are explored, taking into consideration orbital spacing, planetary rotation, and stochastic effects. In connection with a discussion of the evolution of rotational motion, spin state evolution is investigated along with spin axis precession and resonance variation, and the Cassini states. The evolution of planetary orbits is also studied. The subjects considered are related to tides, secular resonances, disk dynamics, and disk-satellite interactions.

Harris, A. W.↗

Mass transfer during ice particle collisions in planetary rings

Experimental results are presented from laboratory environment simulations of the ice particle collisional properties defining the structure and dynamical evolution of planetary rings. It is inferred from these data that there is a dependence of the interacting volume on the impact velocity. Although the volume fraction exchanged during a collision is small, the net amount of material transferred can be substantially smaller. Attention is given to the implications of these determinations for planetary ring structure and evolution.

Mcdonald, J. S. B.↗

Magnetic-Island Contraction and Particle Acceleration in Simulated Eruptive Solar Flares

The mechanism that accelerates particles to the energies required to produce the observed high-energy impulsive emission in solar flares is not well understood. Drake et al. proposed a mechanism for accelerating electrons in contracting magnetic islands formed by kinetic reconnection in multi-layered current sheets (CSs). We apply these ideas to sunward-moving flux ropes (2.5D magnetic islands) formed during fast reconnection in a simulated eruptive flare. A simple analytic model is used to calculate the energy gain of particles orbiting the field lines of the contracting magnetic islands in our ultrahigh-resolution 2.5D numerical simulation. We find that the estimated energy gains in a single island range up to a factor of five. This is higher than that found by Drake et al. for islands in the terrestrial magnetosphere and at the heliopause, due to strong plasma compression that occurs at the flare CS. In order to increase their energy by two orders of magnitude and plausibly account for the observed high-energy flare emission, the electrons must visit multiple contracting islands. This mechanism should produce sporadic emission because island formation is intermittent. Moreover, a large number of particles could be accelerated in each magneto hydro dynamic-scale island, which may explain the inferred rates of energetic-electron production in flares. We conclude that island contraction in the flare CS is a promising candidate for electron acceleration in solar eruptions.

Guidoni, S. E.↗

Using an Altimeter-Derived Internal Tide Model to Remove Tides from in Situ Data

Internal waves at tidal frequencies, i.e., the internal tides, are a prominent source of variability in the ocean associated with significant vertical isopycnal displacements and currents. Because the isopycnal displacements are caused by ageostrophic dynamics, they contribute uncertainty to geostrophic transport inferred from vertical profiles in the ocean. Here it is demonstrated that a newly developed model of the main semidiurnal (M2) internal tide derived from satellite altimetry may be used to partially remove the tide from vertical profile data, as measured by the reduction of steric height variance inferred from the profiles. It is further demonstrated that the internal tide model can account for a component of the near-surface velocity as measured by drogued drifters. These comparisons represent a validation of the internal tide model using independent data and highlight its potential use in removing internal tide signals from in situ observations.

Zaron, Edward D.↗

Large Eddy Simulation Study for Fluid Disintegration and Mixing

A new modeling approach is based on the concept of large eddy simulation (LES) within which the large scales are computed and the small scales are modeled. The new approach is expected to retain the fidelity of the physics while also being computationally efficient. Typically, only models for the small-scale fluxes of momentum, species, and enthalpy are used to reintroduce in the simulation the physics lost because the computation only resolves the large scales. These models are called subgrid (SGS) models because they operate at a scale smaller than the LES grid. In a previous study of thermodynamically supercritical fluid disintegration and mixing, additional small-scale terms, one in the momentum and one in the energy conservation equations, were identified as requiring modeling. These additional terms were due to the tight coupling between dynamics and real-gas thermodynamics. It was inferred that if these terms would not be modeled, the high density-gradient magnitude regions, experimentally identified as a characteristic feature of these flows, would not be accurately predicted without the additional term in the momentum equation; these high density-gradient magnitude regions were experimentally shown to redistribute turbulence in the flow. And it was also inferred that without the additional term in the energy equation, the heat flux magnitude could not be accurately predicted; the heat flux to the wall of combustion devices is a crucial quantity that determined necessary wall material properties. The present work involves situations where only the term in the momentum equation is important. Without this additional term in the momentum equation, neither the SGS-flux constant-coefficient Smagorinsky model nor the SGS-flux constant-coefficient Gradient model could reproduce in LES the pressure field or the high density-gradient magnitude regions; the SGS-flux constant- coefficient Scale-Similarity model was the most successful in this endeavor although not totally satisfactory. With a model for the additional term in the momentum equation, the predictions of the constant-coefficient Smagorinsky and constant-coefficient Scale-Similarity models were improved to a certain extent; however, most of the improvement was obtained for the Gradient model. The previously derived model and a newly developed model for the additional term in the momentum equation were both tested, with the new model proving even more successful than the previous model at reproducing the high density-gradient magnitude regions. Several dynamic SGS-flux models, in which the SGS-flux model coefficient is computed as part of the simulation, were tested in conjunction with the new model for this additional term in the momentum equation. The most successful dynamic model was a "mixed" model combining the Smagorinsky and Gradient models. This work is directly applicable to simulations of gas turbine engines (aeronautics) and rocket engines (astronautics).

Bellan, Josette↗

Conditions for the formation of prominences as inferred from optical observations

It is suggested that three conditions, if dynamically maintained for a sufficient period of time, will result in the formation of a solar prominence. These conditions are the presence of a coronal arcade that connects the magnetic fields on opposite sides of a prominence; the existence of a long-term (hours to days) converging flow of small patches of opposite-polarity magnetic flux toward a common-polarity inversion zone; and the cancellation of encountered patches of magnetic flux of opposite polarity at a photospheric polarity inversion boundary.

Martin, Sara F.↗

Seismic Study of the Solar Interior: Inferences from SOI/MDI Observations During Solar Activity

Work on the structure, asphericity and dynamics of the solar interior from p-mode frequencies and frequency splittings was carried out primarily in collaboration with Dr. Eff-Darwich (University of La Laguna, Tenerife). This ongoing collaboration produced new results for the inversion of the internal solar rotation rate and further development in inversion methodologies. It also resulted in inferences on the solar stratification. Substantial progress towards the characterization of high-degree p-modes has been achieved. In collaboration with Drs. Rabello-Soares and Schou (Stanford University), we have gained a clear conceptual understanding of the various elements that affect the leakage matrix of the SOI/MDI instrument. This work has precise implications on the properties and the characterization of the HMI instrument being developed for the SDO mission.

Korzennik, Sylvain G.↗

Stochastic-Dynamical Modeling of Space Time Rainfall

The focus of this research work is the elucidation of the physical origins of the observed extreme-rainfall variability over tropical oceans. The quantitative results of this work may be used to establish links between deterministic models of the mesoscale and synoptic scale with statistical descriptions of the temporal variability of local tropical oceanic rainfall. In addition, they may be used to quantify the influence of measurement error in large-scale forcing and cloud scale observations on the accuracy of local rainfall variability inferences, important for hydrologic studies. A simple statistical-dynamical model, suitable for use in repetitive Monte Carlo experiments, is formulated as a diagnostic tool for this purpose. Stochastic processes with temporal structure and parameters estimated from observed large-scale data represent large-scale forcing.

Georgankakos, Konstantine P.↗

Observed currents on the earth's high-latitude magnetopause

A survey of electrical currents of the earth's magnetosphere, principally at high latitudes, as inferred from magnetic vector data acquired by the Hawkeye 1 satellite, is reported. A total of 536 candidate crossings of the magnetopause were examined. A reduced data set of 139 selected cases was analyzed in detail though solar wind dynamic pressure data were available for only 117 of these cases. Inferred values of the lineal current densities on the magnetopause are in the range 5.5 to 157.5 mA/m over a wide range of solar wind dynamic pressure from 1.17 to 16.1 nPa. The apparent normal thickness of the magnetopause current sheet ranges from 30 to 850 km with mean and median values of 185 and 158 km, respectively. It is argued that the radial rate of motion of the magnetopause is of the order of 2 km/s and hence that its true thickness is of similar magnitude. The relationship of these results to models of the geomagnetic field and to other related work is discussed.

Van Allen, J. A.↗

A determination of the mass of Sagittarius A* from its radio spectral and source size measurements

There is growing evidence that Sgr A* may be a million solar mass black hole accreting from the Galactic center wind. A consideration of the spectral and source size characteristics associated with this process can offer at least two distinct means of inferring the mass M, complementing the more traditional dynamical arguments. We show that M is unmistakably correlated with both the radio spectral index and the critical wavelength below which the intrinsic source size dominates over the angular broadening due to scattering in the interstellar medium. Current observations can already rule out a mass much in excess of 2 x 10 exp 6 solar masses and suggest a likely value close to 1 x 10 exp 6 solar masses, in agreement with an earlier study matching the radio and high-energy spectral components. We anticipate that such a mass may be confirmed with the next generation of source-size observations using milliarcsecond angular resolution at 0.5 - 1 cm wavelengths.

Melia, Fulvio↗