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DOE OSTI2025

Rapid Bayesian High Entropy Alloy Designs Fabricated via Wire Arc Additive Manufacturing

Purpose: This project seeks to demonstrate a new high-throughput (rapid) alloy design technique applied to creating new high entropy alloys (HEAs) for extreme environments. High entropy alloys shift the design paradigm from being focused on a single principal element (e.g. nickel-based alloys) to target alloys that include high atomic fractions (X >10%) of multiple elements. These HEA materials can exhibit sluggish diffusion and enhanced corrosion resistance, ideal for potential applications in advanced ultra supercritical (A-USC) steam cycles for power generation. Scope: The addition of multiple elements in high atomic fractions creates an enormous design space that cannot easily be investigated by traditional material design strategies such as designed of experiments (DOE). This project utilizes a Bayesian machine learning algorithm that has been modified to work with calculation of phase diagrams (CALPHAD) software. This Bayesian algorithm reduces manual inputs and increase the likelihood of achieving an optimal solution. Compositional inputs to this algorithm will be assessed using existing material property models for high temperature strength and corrosion resistance. The target for alloy performance will be a 15% (~100 ⁰C) increase in allowable service temperature beyond heat-resistant stainless steels while maintaining or improving alloy cost and corrosion resistance. Haynes 230 was selected as a baseline, which is 57 wt% Ni with 22 wt% Cr 14 wt% W, and 2 wt% Mo as solid solution strengtheners. In addition to rapid design via Bayesian machine learning, the alloys were rapidly fabricated using a multi-wire arc additive manufacturing (mWAAM) technique which allows for precise control of alloy composition and assessing of alloy design “windows” to study composition effects. Build speeds for wire-arc additive processes are among the highest for additive technologies enabling rapid and reliable sample fabrication when compared to conventional methods such as arc button melting. The mWAAM samples will be rapidly characterized via instrumented indentation for room temperature modulus and strength and for elevated temperature strength via hot hardness tests. After being screened with hardness testing, potential alloys will be further evaluated with conventional microscopy techniques including scanning electron microscopy (SEM) and transmission electron microscopy (TEM) to assess agreement with modeling results. The most promising compositions will also be evaluated by printing full sized tensile specimens for mechanical behavior tests at elevated temperatures. Results: Bayesian machine learning of a single performance function was initially used to optimize five performance metrics: 1) single phase stability, 2) yield strength, 3) creep resistance (low diffusion coefficient), 4) freezing range (weldability), and 5) material cost. The single performance function was suboptimal as assumptions had to be made about the results while formulating the optimization. A goal-oriented Bayesian optimization strategy (Hanaoka, 2021) was implemented with CALPHAD for use with the five metrics above. This multi-objective Bayesian optimization (MOBO) enabled the design of NiCrCoFe alloys with V and W additions. A base composition of NiCoCr was selected as Ni provides a stable FCC matrix, Cr aids corrosion/oxidation resistance, and Co is a solid-solutions strengthener that also improves creep by increasing the activation energy. Fe helps reduce diffusion coefficients and cost. Finally, V and W were selected for their reasonable solubility and high atomic misfit to aid in solid solution strengthening. Cracking of the mWAAM specimens was an early issue, and the Easton solidification cracking model (Easton et al., 2014a) was selected for addition to the MOBO function. High performing alloys fabricated by mWAAM included Ni 28 Cr 25 Co 26 Fe 15 V 8 and Ni 62 Cr 18 Co 1 Fe 3 W 15 . It was observed that even after adapting the mWAAM process for W, the W did not fully dissolve. To fully evaluate the Ni 62 Cr 18 Co 1 Fe 3 W 15 composition, a cored wire (80-20 NiCr sheath/powder core) was manufactured and printed via WAAM, and HIP’ing was utilized to homogenize and densify the printed alloy. The V and W alloys produced met metrics 1 (solid solution), 4 (solidification cracking), and 5 (cost). However, an unmodeled mechanism of thermal stress cracking was identified in the WAAM produced materials, perhaps exacerbated by the lack of grain boundary strengthening elements (B, C). Conclusions & Recommendations: A high-throughput (rapid) alloy design technique was applied to designing and manufacturing new high entropy alloys (HEAs) for extreme environments utilizing MOBO and mWAAM. The developed process was rapid and effective in addressing the mechanisms included in the model. The lack of grain boundary strengthening element additions (e.g., B, C) was a simplification that likely produced thermal stress cracking that turned into a large part of the investigation. Additions on the order of 0.005 wt% B and 0.05 wt% C likely would have minimized thermal stress grain boundary cracking. Overall, the high throughput design strategy is promising for rapid design of metrics-driven alloys for advanced ultra supercritical (A-USC) steam cycles for power generation. The MOBO and mWAAM process could be commercialized to accelerate metrics-driven alloy design. In addition, the cored-wire process utilized for scale-up is a promising high-volume process for WAAM alloy development and scale-up.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2025

On the Role of Airborne Ice Nucleating Particles in Primary and Secondary Ice Formation Processes in Convective Midlatitude Clouds

Abstract Formation of ice in mixed-phase clouds may proceed via primary nucleation and secondary ice production (SIP). Primary nucleation involves the presence of ice nucleating particles (INPs), while SIP follows primary nucleation, resulting in ice crystal number concentrations N ice exceeding the number of INPs. The ice formation pathways in young congestus clouds are not well understood nor are the environmental conditions favorable for the onset of SIP. Coincident airborne measurements of INPs and N ice collected during the Secondary Production of Ice in Cumulus Experiment (SPICULE) campaign over the U.S. central Great Plains are reported for young congestus clouds. Number concentrations of INPs and N ice at temperatures between −10° and −20°C were used to categorize whether SIP was active in each analyzed cloud pass. Observational data suggested that fragmentation of freezing droplets (FFDs) was occurring and the most likely SIP mechanism for ice enhancement during the early stages of the sampled clouds, where higher cloud-base temperatures and stronger updrafts produced conditions favorable for the onset of FFD. Simple model simulations of a congestus cloud were used to compare predictions of N ice from newly implemented SIP mechanisms (including FFD) alongside those from the existing Hallett–Mossop (HM) mechanism. Although predicted N ice , when all SIP mechanisms were active, was in good agreement with observations, the dominant SIP mechanism in the model was predicted to be HM. The rate of heterogeneous freezing in raindrops was likely inhibiting realistic FFD rates in the simulated cloud. These discrepancies between the observations and simulations underscore the need for extended laboratory studies to formulate improved model representations of SIP in convective clouds.

Patnaude, Ryan J. [Department of Atmospheric Scien↗
DOE OSTI2024

Effect of glass forming additives on low-activity waste feed conversion to glass

A significant effort was invested in the past to develop and refine mathematical models that relate the composition of nuclear waste glasses with their properties, such as viscosity, electrical conductivity, or chemical durability. However, less attention has been paid to the formulation of the melter feed itself, such as the chemical form and the particle size of the glass forming and modifying additives (GFMA), which have a significant effect on the feed-to-glass conversion process during melting. To address this issue, we systematically changed the mineral composition of a simulated low-activity waste melter feed and inspected its melting behavior. When substituting minerals with corresponding oxides and hydroxides, we found that different alumina sources (kyanite, gibbsite, boehmite, or corundum) had the strongest effect on the feed melting process, whereas the sources of Ca, Mg, and Zr had little effect. Further, the x-ray diffraction analysis showed that the alumina sources differ in their dissolution kinetics: early dissolving alumina sources, such as gibbsite (Al(OH) 3 ) and boehmite (AlO(OH)), increase the transient glass-forming melt viscosity at early stages, when gases still evolve, causing extended foaming, whereas alumina sources that dissolve at high temperatures, such as kyanite (Al 2 SiO 5 ) and corundum (Al 2 O 3 ), keep the transient glass-forming melt viscosity low and lead to a faster foam collapse. Using viscosity-composition relationship to estimate the viscosity of transient glass-forming melts in the primary foaming range, we found that the primary foam began to collapse at 360 to 800 Pa s, and fully collapsed between 65 and 260 Pa s. This result agrees with our previous studies, according to which the glass-forming melt viscosity at the cold cap foam bottom ranged from 24 to 85 Pa s.

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗
DOE OSTI2022

Silicon alloying enhances fast heating rate combustion of aluminum particles

Alloys and composites of aluminum (Al) have shown promise in regulating and enhancing particle combustion for energy generation applications. Recent work on aluminum-silicon (Al-Si) spherical alloy particles has shown improved combustion at low heating rates through enhanced diffusion accompanying a lower melting temperature. This study extends reactivity analysis to higher heating rates, comparing oxidation of Al-Si with Al. Flame speeds of Al-Si powder mixed with molybdenum trioxide (MoO 3 ) powder (Al-Si+MoO 3 ) exhibited a faster transition to steady propagation relative to Al+MoO 3 . Bomb calorimetry experiments revealed up to 5.8% greater early temperature rise for Al-Si powder. Rapid steady propagation for Al-Si mixture and faster temperature rise for Al-Si particles were attributed to accelerated kinetics evidenced in thermal equilibrium analysis of the mixtures using a differential scanning calorimeter (DSC). Larger DSC exotherms in the early stages of oxidation (i.e., 480–720 °C) correlated with early heat release and promoted steady flame propagation for Al-Si+MoO 3 compared with Al+MoO 3 . Furthermore, in multiple heating rate DSC studies, Al-Si+MoO 3 ignited at a lower heating rate (i.e., 15 ⁰C/min) than Al+MoO 3 (i.e., 20 ⁰C/min). Both mixtures ignited at temperatures less than 625 °C which is above the melting temperature of Al-Si (574 °C) and below Al (659 °C). Thus, alloy particle fuels with enhanced diffusion-controlled kinetics promote steady flame propagation and show promise for energy generation applications. This is especially promising for technologies driven by enhanced condensed phase combustion such as some propellant additives or applications dependent on reliable burn rates such as pyrotechnic time delay formulations and primers.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2020

Quarkyonic matter equation of state in beta-equilibrium

Quark matter may appear due to a hadronic-quark transition in the core of a hybrid star. Quarkyonic matter is an approach in which both quarks and nucleons appear as quasiparticles in a crossover transition, and provides an explicit realization of early ideas concerning quark matter (e.g., the MIT bag model). This description has recently been employed by McLerran and Reddy to model chargeless (pure neutron) matter with an approach that has the virtue that the speed of sound rises quickly at a neutron-quark transition so as to satisfy observational constraints on the neutron star maximum mass (≳ 2 $M_⊙$) and the radius of a 1.4 $M_⊙$ star ($R_{1.4}$ ≲ 13.5 km). Traditional models involving first-order transitions result in softer pressure-energy density relations that have difficulty satisfying these constraints except with very narrow choices of parameters. Here, we propose a variation of quarkyonic matter involving protons and leptons whose energy can be explicitly minimized to achieve both chemical and beta equilibrium, which cannot be done in the chargeless formulation. Quarkyonic stellar models are able to satisfy observed mass and radius constraints with a wide range of model parameters, avoiding the obligatory fine-tuning of conventional hybrid star models, including requiring the transition density to be very close to the nuclear saturation density. Our formulation fits experimental and theoretical properties of the nuclear symmetry energy and pure neutron matter, and contains as few as three free parameters. This makes it an ideal tool for the study of high-density matter that is an efficient alternative to piecewise polytrope or spectral decomposition methods.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗
DOE OSTI2026

Quantum simulation of massive Thirring and Gross--Neveu models for arbitrary number of flavors

The study of fermionic quantum field theories is an important problem for realizing the standard model of particle physics on a quantum computer. As a step towards this goal, we consider the massive Thirring and Gross--Neveu models with arbitrary number of fermion flavors, $N_f$, discretized on a spatial one-dimensional lattice of size $L$ in the Hamiltonian formulation. We compute the gate complexity using the higher-order product formula and using block-encoding/qubitization and quantum singular value transformations in the limit of large $N_f$ and $L$. We also prepare the ground states of both models with excellent fidelity for system sizes up to 20 qubits with $N_f = 1,2,3,4$ using the adaptive-variational quantum imaginary time algorithm. In addition, we also classify the dynamical Lie algebras of these relativistic fermionic models and show that they belong to the same isomorphism class. Our work is a concrete step towards the quantum simulation of real-time dynamics of large $N_f$ fermionic quantum field theories models relevant for chiral symmetry breaking, understanding dimensional transmutation, and exploring the conformal window of field theories on near-term and early fault-tolerant quantum computers.

FOS: Physical sciences↗
DOE OSTI2023

LANL Institutional Computing Close-out Report for Project t22_ocean_time_step

This year, my team made a very productive use of LANL IC time. Four papers were published that used IC resources, and two more are under review. These publications fall into three categories: 1.) Improving tide modeling in the global ocean by adding self attraction and loading (Barton et. al. 2022), ice shelf cavities (Pal et al. 2023), and local time stepping (Lilly et al. 2023). 2.) A new sea ice numerical formulation (Capodaglio 2023). 3.) Performance comparisons, methods, and test cases for ocean model development, This includes a verification suite for ocean models (Bishnu, submitted) and a comparison between Julia and Fortran (Strauss, submitted). A new time-stepping method was introduced in Calandrini et al. (2022). These publications, and the use of LANL IC resources, go hand-in-hand with our mentoring efforts to train young scientists. Two of the lead authors are graduate students who are conducting their PhD research: Kristin Barton at the University of Michigan and Jeremy Lilly at Oregon State. These are both their first publications, and they both have DOE funding and DOE mentors. In addition, Bishnu is a post-doctoral researcher at LANL; Strauss conducted his research as a senior in high school; and Capodaglio, Calandrini and Pal are all early-career scientists who were converted to staff in 2021 or 2022. Here we highlight two publications on improvements in tidal modeling: Barton et al. 2022 and Lilly et al. 2023.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

Marine Hydrogen Demonstration

This report summarizes Phase 1 of a project involving the design of a Floating Hydrogen Production and Dispensing Barge destined for the Port of San Francisco (SF). The H 2 Barge is designed to produce renewable H 2 at the rate of ~ 530 kg/day, storing 512 kg of hydrogen at 517-bar, allowing fast refueling of hydrogen fuel cell vessels and land-side hydrogen delivery trailers for distribution into the nascent SF hydrogen ecosystem. The broader considerations that impacted the H2 Barge design are also described. An account is given of a new review process formulated by the United States Coast Guard (USCG) to review this first-of-its-kind maritime implementation of hydrogen technology. The immediate goals of the H 2 Barge Project are to 1) demonstrate the feasibility, viability and methods of hydrogen production, storage and fueling in a maritime context, 2) help shape (where needed) and navigate the required local, state and federal regulatory gauntlet and 3) catalyze a “green hydrogen ecosystem” (both marine and landside) with locally produced renewable hydrogen at the San Francisco waterfront. A summary is also given of the modeling and experimental activity of Phase 1 directed to the development of science-based refueling protocols for large marine Type IV 250-bar hydrogen tanks. Combined modeling and experimental studies are reported of the filling of large (28 kg) 250-bar Type IV hydrogen tanks of the type being deployed on early hydrogen ferries, such as the MV Sea Change. The primary question was to determine how such tanks can be successfully filled (state of charge greater than 97%) within 45 minutes without exceeding the 82 °C temperature limit historically set for such tanks. The studies show that a gas injector is needed avoid thermal stratification during filling which can result in potential hot spots. Pre-cooling of the hydrogen was found to be essential in most cases, as ambient conditions greatly affect the need for a pre-cooling to achieve the 45-minute fill time. Pre-cooling cannot be supplied by nearby water, such as that found in nature (bays, lakes, rivers, etc.) because pre-cooling cooling below 0 °C was found to be necessary to avoid excessive compression heating. The experimental results afforded a calibration of the engineering model (SOFIL) for these large 250-bar tanks, which now enables using SOFIL to predict volume-averaged hydrogen filling temperatures to an accuracy of +/- 2.7°C for these tanks. The model can therefore be used to evaluate potential scenarios for development of a standardized fueling methodology for ferries utilizing large Type-IV tanks of the type examined here.

08 HYDROGEN↗
DOE OSTI2020

Insights into the Structure and Energy of DNA Nanoassemblies

Since the pioneering work of Ned Seeman in the early 1980s, the use of the DNA molecule as a construction material experienced a rapid growth and led to the establishment of a new field of science, nowadays called structural DNA nanotechnology. Here, the self-recognition properties of DNA are employed to build micrometer-large molecular objects with nanometer-sized features, thus bridging the nano- to the microscopic world in a programmable fashion. Distinct design strategies and experimental procedures have been developed over the years, enabling the realization of extremely sophisticated structures with a level of control that approaches that of natural macromolecular assemblies. Nevertheless, our understanding of the building process, i.e., what defines the route that goes from the initial mixture of DNA strands to the final intertwined superstructure, is, in some cases, still limited. In this review, we describe the main structural and energetic features of DNA nanoconstructs, from the simple Holliday junction to more complicated DNA architectures, and present the theoretical frameworks that have been formulated until now to explain their self-assembly. Deeper insights into the underlying principles of DNA self-assembly may certainly help us to overcome current experimental challenges and foster the development of original strategies inspired to dissipative and evolutive assembly processes occurring in nature.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

Variations in Creep Performance of P92 Steel Within Its Composition Range: Influence of N Solubility

Underspecified composition ranges often lead to alloys with unpredictable mechanical performance. To better understand the changes in microstructure and mechanical performance associated with variations of key elements, three versions of P92 are formulated within, or close to, the specified allowable for N, B, and C ranges. Chromium and Si are also varied to influence N solubility. Different service conditions (i.e., temperature and stress) are explored. It is observed that >80% decrease in creep life occurs at 625 °C and 155 MPa for the highest B and N containing alloy. Multiscale characterization reveals key changes due to the trace element variation. The high B and N containing alloy forms deleterious BN precipitates with morphology that promotes crack nucleation and damage accumulation, but this alloy additionally forms higher fractions of beneficial MX precipitates. The alloy with the lowest B and N concentrations but greater C content shows the best creep performance—a consequence of the refined M 23 C 6 carbide precipitate population and the absence of large-scale inclusions or BN precipitates. Calculations of creep activation energy reveal that the high B and N containing alloy is more prone to damage accumulation which causes an early onset of accelerating creep and greater minimum creep rate.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2022

Preheating in Palatini Higgs inflation on the lattice

We study preheating following Higgs inflation in the Palatini formulation of gravity. We numerically evolve perturbations of the radial mode of the Higgs field and that of three scalars modeling the gauge bosons. We compare the two non-perturbative mechanisms of growth of excitations — parametric resonance and tachyonic instability — and confirm that the latter plays the dominant role. Our results provide further evidence that preheating in Palatini Higgs inflation happens within a single oscillation of the Higgs field about the bottom of its potential, consistent with the approximation of an instantaneous preheating.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗
DOE OSTI2022

Quantization: History and problems

In this work, I explore the concept of quantization as a mapping from classical phase space functions to quantum operators. I discuss the early history of this notion of quantization with emphasis on the works of Schrödinger and Dirac, and how quantization fit into their overall understanding of quantum theory in the 1920's. Dirac, in particular, proposed a quantization map which should satisfy certain properties, including the property that quantum commutators should be related to classical Poisson brackets in a particular way. However, in 1946, Groenewold proved that Dirac's mapping was inconsistent, making the problem of defining a rigorous quantization map more elusive than originally expected. This result, known as the Groenewold-Van Hove theorem, is not often discussed in physics texts, but here I will give an account of the theorem and what it means for potential ``corrections” to Dirac's scheme. Other proposals for quantization have arisen over the years, the first major one being that of Weyl in 1927, which was later developed by many, including Groenewold, and which has since become known as Weyl Quantization in the mathematical literature. Another, known as Geometric Quantization, formulates quantization in differential-geometric terms by appealing to the character of classical phase spaces as symplectic manifolds; this approach began with the work of Souriau, Kostant, and Kirillov in the 1960's. I will describe these proposals for quantization and comment on their relation to Dirac's original program. Along the way, the problem of operator ordering and of quantizing in curvilinear coordinates will be described, since these are natural questions that immediately present themselves when thinking about quantization.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗
DOE OSTI2021

Reliability-based hull geometry optimisation of a point-absorber wave energy converter with power take-off structural reliability objectives

Recent studies have focused on optimising wave energy converter (WEC) designs, maximising their power performance and techno-economic feasibility. Reliability has yet to be fully considered in these formulations, despite its impact on cost and performance. In this study, this gap is addressed by developing a reliability-based design optimisation framework for WEC hull geometries to explore the trade-off between power performance and power take-off (PTO) system damage equivalent loading (DEL). Optimised hull geometries for two sites are considered (from the centre of the North Sea and off the west coast of Norway), and two directions of motions (heave and surge). Results indicate that site characteristics affect the potential power production and DEL for an optimal WEC design. These are also affected by the direction of motion for power extraction, which also significantly changes optimal hull shape characteristics. Optimal surging WEC designs have edges facing oncoming wave directions, while heaving WECs have pointed bottoms, both to streamline movement. Larger, more convex WECs result in greater power production and DEL, while smaller, more concave WECs result in lesser power production and DEL. These findings underline the importance of considering WEC hull geometry in early design processes to optimise cost, power production, and reliability.

16 TIDAL AND WAVE POWER↗
DOE OSTI2022

Self-equilibrated backstresses induce compensation between hardening and softening: Micromechanical and microstructural features

For crystal plasticity formulation neglecting the strain gradients at the dislocation scale, backstresses are necessary to satisfy the mesoscopic stress equilibrium and strain compatibility requirements. Backstresses in a material point and those between neighboring points are treated separately. Physically backstresses can dynamically induce either hardening or softening effects to adjust the dislocation hardening of slip systems, whereas the sum of the stresses resulting in backstresses in the representative volume element (RVE) is zero. Backstress hardening suppresses certain slip activities, while backstress softening triggers excess dislocations. A two-phase brass is studied. Backstresses make the hard phase deform smaller and the soft phase deform more than those without employing backstresses in a model. In the former, more homogeneous lattice strain and higher yield stress are obtained. Backstress has limited effects on the evolution of the critical resolved shear stress and crystallographic texture. Furthermore, it is a major cause of the banded structures featuring sharp crystallographic contrasts which are not parallel to the slip planes. Tests indicate that backstress induces a serrated behavior at the early stages of deformation and induces the geometrically necessary bands (GNBs), which are parallel to the macroscopic axes.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2022

The role of pre-existing heterogeneities in materials under shock and spall

There has been a challenge for many decades to understand how heterogeneities influence the behavior of materials under shock loading, eventually leading to spall formation and failure. Experimental, analytical, and computational techniques have matured to the point where systematic studies of materials with complex microstructures under shock loading and the associated failure mechanisms are feasible. This is enabled by more accurate diagnostics as well as characterization methods. As interest in complex materials grows, understanding and predicting the role of heterogeneities in determining the dynamic behavior becomes crucial. Early computational studies, hydrocodes, in particular, historically preclude any irregularities in the form of defects and impurities in the material microstructure for the sake of simplification and to retain the hydrodynamic conservation equations. Contemporary computational methods, notably molecular dynamics simulations, can overcome this limitation by incorporating inhomogeneities albeit at a much lower length and time scale. This review discusses literature that has focused on investigating the role of various imperfections in the shock and spall behavior, emphasizing mainly heterogeneities such as second-phase particles, inclusions, and voids under both shock compression and release. Pre-existing defects are found in most engineering materials, ranging from thermodynamically necessary vacancies, to interstitial and dislocation, to microstructural features such as inclusions, second phase particles, voids, grain boundaries, and triple junctions. This literature review explores the interaction of these heterogeneities under shock loading during compression and release. Systematic characterization of material heterogeneities before and after shock loading, along with direct measurements of Hugoniot elastic limit and spall strength, allows for more generalized theories to be formulated. Further, continuous improvement toward time-resolved, in situ experimental data strengthens the ability to elucidate upon results gathered from simulations and analytical models, thus improving the overall ability to understand and predict how materials behave under dynamic loading.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2024

Anticipating Technical Expertise and Capability Evolution in Research Communities Using Dynamic Graph Transformers

The ability to anticipate global technical expertise and capability evolution trends is essential for national and global security, especially in safety-critical domains such as nuclear nonproliferation (NN) and rapidly emerging fields like artificial intelligence (AI). Here, in this work, we extend traditional statistical relational learning approaches (e.g., link prediction in collaboration networks) and formulate a problem of anticipating technical expertise and capability evolution using dynamic heterogeneous graph representations. We develop novel capabilities to forecast collaboration patterns, authorship behavior, and technical capability evolution at different granularities (e.g., scientist and institution levels) in two distinct research fields. We implement a dynamic graph transformer (DGT) neural architecture, which pushes the state-of-the-art graph neural network models by: 1) forecasting heterogeneous (rather than homogeneous) nodes and edges; and 2) relying on both discrete- and continuous-time inputs. We demonstrate that our DGT models predict collaboration, partnership, and expertise patterns with 0.26, 0.73, and 0.53 mean reciprocal rank values for AI and 0.48, 0.93, and 0.22 for NN domains. DGT model performance exceeds the best-performing static graph baseline models by 30%–80% across AI and NN domains. Our findings demonstrate that DGT models boost inductive task performance when previously unseen nodes appear in the test data for the domains with emerging collaboration patterns (e.g., AI). Specifically, models accurately predict which established scientists will collaborate with early career scientists and vice versa in the AI domain.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2025

Scaling microstructural processes in the sintering of ionic ceramics

A multi-scale framework, combining a multiphase field formulation and large deformation mechanics, was developed as a stepping stone to perform the data analytics of the microstructural level kinetics of a sintering solid. Relevant microstructural information from this framework, such as grain, stress, and porosity statistics, was scaled up to describe the macroscopic level sintering kinetics. Here, the developed formulation was applied to describe the electric field assisted sintering of Y 2 O 3 . Microstructural inhomogeneities in a multi-granular solid result in the formation of a field of compressive stress networks, which interleave with low compression and weakly tensile regions, defining a scaffolding for sintering concentration regions to develop. A Poisson effect-induced lateral stress network is also naturally self-induced as a result of the mechanical constraints imposed by the sintering apparatus. For long sintering times, localized shear stresses enhancing mass flow along grain boundaries and internal surfaces develop. Three-sided pores are removed by either vacancy transport to the surrounding pores, or move towards the external surfaces through grain boundary diffusion. Four- and higher order-sided pores stabilize because an equal amount of vacancies are gained and lost through the connecting grain boundaries. Grain dewetting contributes to pore coalescence, suggesting that pore kinetics and grain growth are coupled and should be analyzed in concert. The combined sintering and grain growth kinetics define six regimes of sintering behavior: (1) T, the transient regime; (2) E$_Υ$, the surface energy dominated, early sintering regime, where the grain growth exponent, p = 1, and the stress concentration factor, $f$ ~ $1/\hat{ρ}^{4.6}$; (3) E S , the stress dominated, early sintering regime, where p = 1 and $f$ ~ $1/\hat{ρ}^{4}$; (4) I$_Υ$, the surface energy dominated, intermediate sintering regime, where p = 2 and $f$ ~ $1/\hat{ρ}^{4.6}$; (5) I S , the stress dominated, intermediate sintering regime, where p = 2 and $f$ ~ $1/\hat{ρ}^{4}$; and (6) L, the late sintering regime, where p = 3 and $f$ ~ 1. At the macroscopic level, the rapid densification and suppression of grain growth observed in the electric field assisted sintering process is a consequence of the compounding effects of the underlying stress-, transport-, and interfacial-energy-induced energy minimization kinetics, as predicted by the multi-scale framework.

11 - NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗
DOE OSTI2022

APPLICATION OF OBJECTIVES-DRIVEN ASSURANCE CASES TO SYSTEM DEVELOPMENT IN AN EVOLVING ACQUISITION MODEL

System properties such as “safety” and “dependability” cannot, in practice, be proven, and must be argued in an “assurance case” aimed at supporting risk-acceptance decisions that have to be made by system acquirers and/or regulatory authorities. The paper is concerned with applications of the “assurance case” idea early in design and development of new systems, when (apart from dedicated testing) the only available operating experience information derives from previous (non-identical) systems. Much of the discussion is based on an evolving acquisition model at the US National Aeronautics and Space Administration; previously, most major systems were developed in-house, but some major systems will now be developed by and acquired from commercial providers. Key points discussed include the following. (1) By promoting a particular kind of focused discussion between acquirers and providers, the use of assurance cases should be particularly valuable under the new acquisition model. (2) In principle, objectives-driven (sometimes called “performance-based”) approaches to assurance of performance have significant advantages in cases where they are applicable. (3) For truly novel systems, completeness of the safety analysis is a significant issue; it is important for the assurance case to include a commitment by the provider (or applicant) to seriously pursue analysis of operating experience, so that previously unrecognized hazards can be identified and addressed. (4) Inquiries into major accidents often point to deficiencies in management oversight in all parts of the life cycle; management processes need to be addressed in the formulation and the implementation of an assurance case. Under the new acquisition model, these considerations imply a serious reconsideration of the way in which the development process is managed by both providers and acquirers.

99 GENERAL AND MISCELLANEOUS↗