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National Renewable Energy Laboratory Wildland Fire Management Plan (August 2022-August 2025): February-August 2022

The National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) is located in a moderate wildfire risk region. The region has a history of damaging wildland fire activity and is also susceptible to changing environmental conditions (drought, elevated temperatures) that may lead to an increase in wildfire frequency and consequence over time. An integrated, site-wide wildland fire management plan is required by the Department of Energy and is to be consistent with the Federal Wildland Fire Management Policy. The NREL Wildland Fire Management Plan (WFMP) provides an integrated approach to reducing risk to wildland fire at NREL. The goals of the WFMP are to protect human health and safety, protect NREL facilities and research, enhance community protection, diminish risk and consequences of wildland fires, and maintain the health of the ecosystem. The WFMP accomplishes these goals through the use of tools such as fire behavior modeling, fire growth modeling, a structure ignition risk assessment, and through the application of robust fire prevention, emergency management, and environmental programs. The NREL WFMP was developed in a collaborative manner with input from regional stakeholders including cities, counties, local fire departments, and other governmental agencies. The WFMP provides for recommendations to reduce overall wildland fire risk to life safety and property at NREL.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Nuclear Safety [Vol. 37, No. 3, July-September 1996]

Nuclear Safety is a journal that covers significant issues in the field of nuclear safety. Its primary scope is safety in the design, construction, operation, and decommissioning of nuclear power reactors worldwide and the research and analysis activities that promote this goal, but it also encompasses the safety aspects of the entire nuclear fuel cycle, including fuel fabrication, spent-fuel processing and handling, and nuclear waste disposal, the handling of fissionable materials and radioisotopes, and the environmental effects of all these activities. Table of Contents for this issue follows. GENERAL SAFETY CONSIDERATIONS 181 Attitudes and Practices Regarding Disposal of Liquid Nuclear Waste at Clinton Laboratories in the Very Early Years: A Historical Analysis, S. H. Stow; 202 Off-Site Nuclear Emergency Management in Germany Under the Auspices of the Federal Structure, A. Bayer, S. Bittner, and H. Korn; DESIGN FEATURES: 211 Twenty-Fourth DOE/NRC Nuclear Air-Cleaning and Treatment Conference, R. R. Bellamy, J. J. Hayes, R. D. Porco, and M. W. First; OPERATING EXPERIENCES: 222 Explosion in the Tomsk-7 Reprocessing Plant on April 6, 1993, M. L. Hyder, W. G. Lussie, and F. E. Witmer; 234 Reactor Shutdown Experience, Compiled by J. W. Cletcher; U.S. NUCLEAR REGULATORY COMMISSION INFORMATION AND ANALYSES: 237 Assessment of Spent Fuel Cooling, J. G. Ibarra, W. R. Jones, G. F. Lanik, H. L. Ornstein, and S. V. Pullani; RECENT DEVELOPMENTS: 256 Reports, Standards, and Safety Guides, D. S. Queener; 260 Proposed Rule Changes as of June 30, 1996; ANNOUNCEMENTS: 210 Tennessee Industries Week; 221 21st International Symposium on The Scientific Basis for Nuclear Waste Management; 259 IAEA Programme of Scientific Meetings for 1997; 270 PSAM 4 (International Conference on Probabilistic Safety Assessment and Management); 265 The Authors; 268 Errata.

05 NUCLEAR FUELS↗

Improving Safety on the International Space Station: Transitioning to Electronic Emergency Procedure Books on the International Space Station

The National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) originally designed the International Space Station (ISS) to operate until 2015, but have extended operations until at least 2020. As part of this very dynamic Program, there is an effort underway to simplify the certification of Commercial ]of ]the ]Shelf (COTS) hardware. This change in paradigm allows the ISS Program to take advantage of technologically savvy and commercially available hardware, such as the iPad. The iPad, a line of tablet computers designed and marketed by Apple Inc., was chosen to support this endeavor. The iPad is functional, portable, and could be easily accessed in an emergency situation. The iPad Electronic Flight Bag (EFB), currently approved for use in flight by the Federal Aviation Administration (FAA), is a fraction of the cost of a traditional Class 2 EFB. In addition, the iPad fs ability to use electronic aeronautical data in lieu of paper in route charts and approach plates can cut the annual cost of paper data in half for commercial airlines. ISS may be able to benefit from this type of trade since one of the most important factors considered is information management. Emergency procedures onboard the ISS are currently available to the crew in paper form. Updates to the emergency books can either be launched on an upcoming visiting vehicle such as a Russian Soyuz flight or printed using the onboard ISS printer. In both cases, it is costly to update hardcopy procedures. A new operations concept was proposed to allow for the use of a tablet system that would provide a flexible platform to support space station crew operations. The purpose of the system would be to provide the crew the ability to view and maintain operational data, such as emergency procedures while also allowing Mission Control Houston to update the procedures. The ISS Program is currently evaluating the safety risks associated with the use of iPads versus paper. Paper products can contribute to the flammability risk and require manual updates that take time away from research tasks. The ISS program has recently purchased three iPads for the astronauts and the certification has been approved. The crew is currently using the iPads onboard. The results of this analysis could be used to discern whether the iPad is a viable option for use in emergencies by assessing the risk posture through the development of a quantitative probabilistic risk assessment (PRA).

Carter-Journet, Katrina↗

A Three-fold Outlook of the Ultra-Efficient Engine Technology Program Office (UEET)

The Ultra-Efficient Engine Technology (UEET) Office at NASA Glenn Research Center is a part of the Aeronautics Directorate. Its vision is to develop and hand off revolutionary turbine engine propulsion technologies that will enable future generation vehicles over a wide range of flight speeds. There are seven different technology area projects of UEET. During my tenure at NASA Glenn Research Center, my assignment was to assist three different areas of UEET, simultaneously. I worked with Kathy Zona in Education Outreach, Lynn Boukalik in Knowledge Management, and Denise Busch with Financial Management. All of my tasks were related to the business side of UEET. As an intern with Education Outreach I created a word search to partner with an exhibit of a Turbine Engine developed out of the UEET office. This exhibit is a portable model that is presented to students of varying ages. The word search complies with National Standards for Education which are part of every science, engineering, and technology teachers curriculum. I also updated a Conference Planning/Workshop Excel Spreadsheet for the UEET Office. I collected and inputted facility overviews from various venues, both on and off site to determine where to hold upcoming conferences. I then documented which facilities were compliant with the Federal Emergency Management Agency's (FEMA) Hotel and Motel Fire Safety Act of 1990. The second area in which I worked was Knowledge Management. a large knowledge management system online which has extensive documentation that continually needs reviewing, updating, and archiving. Knowledge management is the ability to bring individual or team knowledge to an organizational level so that the information can be stored, shared, reviewed, archived. Livelink and a secure server are the Knowledge Management systems that UEET utilizes, Through these systems, I was able to obtain the documents needed for archiving. My assignment was to obtain intellectual property including reports, presentations, or any other documents related to the project. My next task was to document the author, date of creation, and all other properties of each document. To archive these documents I worked extensively with Microsoft Excel. different financial systems of accounting such as the SAP business accounting system. I also learned the best ways to present financial data and shadowed my mentor as she presented financial data to both UEET's project management and the Resources Analysis and Management Office (RAMO). I analyzed the June 2004 financial data of UEET and used Microsoft Excel to input the results of the data. This process made it easier to present the full cost of the project in the month of June. In addition I assisted in the End of the Year 2003 Reconciliation of Purchases of UEET.

Graham, La Quilia E.↗

Tool for Developing Integrated Strategies for Decontamination and Waste Management - 20291

Management of waste from chemical, biological, and radiological incidents is complicated by the fact that decontamination decisions have a profound impact on the characteristics of resulting waste streams. Wide-area biological and radiological incidents could produce massive quantities of waste that may need to be treated on-site and sent for subsequent disposal as non-contaminated materials, or else be directly disposed of as contaminated materials. The EPA has developed the Waste Estimation Support Tool (WEST) for characterizing and quantifying biological and radiological waste that may be generated from decontamination efforts. This paper focuses on the WEST's uses for radiological incidents. WEST combines Geographic Information System (GIS)-based analysis of externally-supplied plume data, infrastructure databases derived from the Federal Emergency Management Agency's (FEMA's) Hazus tool [1], and satellite imagery surface recognition algorithms to combine the composition and square footage of the buildings in the plume with estimates of the materials between the buildings in the plume. The resulting GIS data files are then imported into a Microsoft Access database application, where they are combined with information about the nature and concentration of contaminants, and then subjected to decontamination strategies for different contaminated surfaces. The tool provides estimates of the type and quantities of potential wastes resulting from simulated decontamination and/or demolition activities and includes estimates of the remaining contamination levels including residual contamination contained within each waste stream. Estimates are presented at several levels of detail, allowing users to obtain needed data at the desired resolution. These include estimates for the total affected area, estimates by contamination zone, estimates by decontamination method(s), and estimates by building type (occupancy classification). EPA is currently developing the next version of WEST which will include several substantial enhancements. The most significant improvement for the next version of WEST will include the ability for users to develop contamination scenarios and waste estimates based on previously developed, readily available, and geographically specific infrastructure data. Instead of using WEST's default infrastructure data based on FEMA's Hazus tool, users will be able to import their own building data specific to the geographically affected area. This capability may substantially decrease uncertainties in the resulting waste estimates because the results will be based on actual building data (numbers of each type, square footage, building height, etc.). Two other significant enhancements will be the ability to generate waste estimates for vehicles and biomass. In addition to building debris and building decontamination waste, vehicles and biomass will likely constitute a significant percentage of the total waste which may result from wide area contamination events. This presentation will present the most recent version of WEST, which includes such considerations as affected biomass (e.g., trees), vehicles, and the ability to replace the default Hazus infrastructure databases with custom infrastructure databases. (authors)

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗

Architecture and Information Requirements to Assess and Predict Flight Safety Risks During Highly Autonomous Urban Flight Operations

As aviation adopts new and increasingly complex operational paradigms, vehicle types, and technologies to broaden airspace capability and efficiency, maintaining a safe system will require recognition and timely mitigation of new safety issues as they emerge and before significant consequences occur. A shift toward a more predictive risk mitigation capability becomes critical to meet this challenge. In-time safety assurance comprises monitoring, assessment, and mitigation functions that proactively reduce risk in complex operational environments where the interplay of hazards may not be known (and therefore not accounted for) during design. These functions can also help to understand and predict emergent effects caused by the increased use of automation or autonomous functions that may exhibit unexpected non-deterministic behaviors. The envisioned monitoring and assessment functions can look for precursors, anomalies, and trends (PATs) by applying model-based and data-driven methods. Outputs would then drive downstream mitigation(s) if needed to reduce risk. These mitigations may be accomplished using traditional design revision processes or via operational (and sometimes automated) mechanisms. The latter refers to the ‘in-time’ aspect of the system concept. This report comprises architecture and information requirements and considerations toward enabling such a capability within the domain of low altitude highly autonomous urban flight operations. This domain may span, for example, public-use surveillance missions flown by small unmanned aircraft (e.g., infrastructure inspection, facility management, emergency response, law enforcement, and/or security) to transportation missions flown by larger aircraft that may carry passengers or deliver products. Caveat: Any stated requirements in this report should be considered initial requirements that are intended to drive research and development (R&D). These initial requirements are likely to evolve based on R&D findings, refinement of operational concepts, industry advances, and new industry or regulatory policies or standards related to safety assurance.

Young, Steven↗

The Disruptive Technology That is Additive Construction: System Development Lessons Learned for Terrestrial and Planetary Applications

Disruptive technologies are unique in that they spawn other new technologies and applications as they grow. These activities are usually preceded by the question, "What If?" For example, "What if we could use an emerging technology and in-situ materials to promote exploration on the Moon or Mars, and then use that same technology to keep our troops out of harm's way and/or help the worlds' homeless?" This question allows us to flip the mindset of "how can people create more valuable innovation?" to "how can innovation create more valuable people?." This approach allows us to view augmented human labor as an inclusive opportunity, not a threat. The discipline of Additive Construction is growing rapidly due to the flexibility, speed, safety and logistics benefits offered as compared to standard construction techniques. Additive construction is a disruptive technology in that it employs the principles of additive manufacturing on a human habitat structure scale. Developed initially for emergency management and disaster relief applications, additive construction has now grown into military infrastructure and planetary (Moon and Mars) surface infrastructure applications as well. Additive Construction with Mobile Emplacement (ACME) is a NASA technology development project that seeks to demonstrate the feasibility of constructing shelters for human crews, and other surface infrastructure, on the Moon or Mars for a future human presence. The ACME project will allow, for the first time, the 3-dimensional printing of surface structures on planetary bodies using local materials for construction, thereby tremendously reducing launch and transportation mass and logistics. Some examples of infrastructure that could be constructed using robotic additive construction methods are landing pads, rocket engine blast protection berms, roads, dust free zones, equipment shelters, habitats and radiation shelters. Terrestrial applications include the development of surface structures using Earth-based materials for emergency response, disaster relief, general construction, and housing at all economic levels. This paper will describe the progress made by the NASA ACME project with a focus on prototypes and full scale additive construction demonstrations using both Portland cement concrete and other indigenous material mixtures. Rationale for the use of additive construction for both terrestrial and planetary applications will be explored and a thorough state-of-the-art of additive construction techniques will be presented. An evolutionary history of NASA's additive construction development efforts, dating back to 2004, will be included. The paper will then step through a series of trade studies performed to inform key processing and design decisions in the development of the full-scale ACES-3 system developed by NASA and the Jacobs Space Exploration Group for the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers (USACE) Construction Engineers Research Laboratory (CERL) in Champaign, IL. The selection of aggregate and binders, based on in-situ materials, will also be presented and discussed

Space Processing↗

Independent Review of Groundwater Remediation Strategy for Hexavalent Chromium and RDX Groundwater Plumes at Los Alamos National Laboratory (Rev. 1)

Site operations at the Los Alamos National Laboratory (LANL) resulted in the release of oxidized chromium, Cr(VI), into Sandia Canyon from cooling tower effluent from 1956 until 1972. The chromium traveled with the surface water approximately 3 miles downstream before migrating below ground surface. Chromium concentrations exceed 50 μg/L in the upper portion of the aquifer. Another LANL groundwater plume of concern is associated with RDX (Royal Demolition Explosives, 1,3,5-trinitro-1,3,5-triazine). Between 1951 and 1996, RDX was released to the mesa-top facilities' process water outfall, adjacent and underlying soils, and alluvial sediments, along with surface water in Cañon de Valle. Between 2000 and 2010, two remedial actions were deployed, removing much of the near-surface RDX, however, recharge due to precipitation has transported RDX into the perched-intermediate zone and into the regional aquifer. The report documents an independent technical review by scientists from the Department of Energy (DOE) Network of National Laboratories for Environmental Management and Stewardship (NNLEMS) to provide recommendations for potential near term actions to address and optimize remediation for both the Cr(VI) and RDX plumes. The proposed near-term remedial actions include design of pump and treat systems for Cr(VI) and monitoring and study for natural attenuation for RDX. The review assesses existing data, conceptual and numerical modeling, and it recommends a technical integration process to support identifying and implementing strategic, effective and efficient remedies. The DOE Environmental Management Los Alamos Field Office (EM-LA) and their cleanup contractor Newport News Nuclear-BWTX, LLC Los Alamos (N3B) provided the information required for the review. Interviews were also conducted with regulators to obtain the full spectrum of technical, regulatory and scientific perspectives. The independent review team was impressed by the capabilities, experiences, innovativeness, and insightfulness of the technical representatives from both the regulator, the New Mexico Environment Department (NMED) and N3B. Incorporation of vadose zone flow pathways in the conceptual site model (CSM) and configuring the numerical modeling for the site was generally state-of-the-practice (or better). This could be considered state-of-the-art by addressing uncertainties related to spatial extent of hydraulic windows. The reviews from the regulators were thorough and often provided useful concepts for consideration and future/study resolutions. The overarching consensus recommendation of independent review team is that the LANL groundwater plumes should be addressed in context of the emerging "management of complex sites" paradigm.

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗

AmeriFlux FLUXNET-1F US-GL1 Stannard Rock

This is the AmeriFlux Management Project (AMP) created FLUXNET-1F version of the carbon flux data for the site US-GL1 Stannard Rock. This is the FLUXNET version of the carbon flux data for the site US-GL1 Stannard Rock produced by applying the standard ONEFlux (1F) software. Site Description - Stannard Rock is located 39 km from the nearest shore (Keweenaw Peninsula) in Lake Superior, 44 miles NNE of Marquette, Michigan, and 24 miles ESE of Manitou Island. The site is located on the historic Stannard Rock Lighthouse, which was completed in 1882. Eddy covariance instrumentation was installed in 2008 by a network of scientists from both US and Canada, eventually to be called the Great Lakes Evaporation Network (GLEN). The intent of GLEN has been to provide observations of over-lake meteorology and evaporation, improve forecasting of Great Lakes water levels, and support a wide variety of stakeholders, including the National Weather Service (NWS), Environment and Climate Change Canada, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, U.S. Coast Guard, recreational boaters and commercial shipping, emergency management officials, and the Great Lakes research community. The eddy covariance station along with other ancillary meteorological instrumentation is located at an approximate elevation of 39.2 meters above mean lake water level. Meteorological data from the lighthouse are sent to the National Data Buoy Center, where they can be viewed in real-time at http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=stdm4 Uncorrected half-hour fluxes were computed directly on the logger using a 30-minute block averaging period as high-frequency data were not available. The half hour flux measurements downloaded from the datalogger were post-processed with the following filters and corrections. Latent and sensible heat and carbon dioxide fluxes were corrected with 2-D coordinate rotation. Although the primary objective of data collection at Stannard Rock was to quantify the evaporative flux, additional preliminary measurements of the carbon dioxide concentration and flux from the LI-7500 are also included in this dataset but it is advised to use the carbon data with caution. Carbon data reported in this dataset includes turbulent fluxes of CO2 with no storage correction (FC, µmol m-2 s-1) and CO2 density in mole fraction of wet air (CO2), which was originally output on the datalogger as average CO2 density (mg m-2 s-1) and converted into µmol mol-1 using air temperature and pressure in post-processing. Webb, Pearman, and Leuning terms were applied to account for density fluctuations for water vapor and CO2. Sonic path length, high-frequency attenuation and sensor separation were accounted for according to Horst and Massman, and the oxygen absorption correction for the KH2O hygrometer was also applied. Latent and sensible heat fluxes were assumed to be unrealistic above an absolute value of 1000 W m-2 and were removed. Both carbon flux (FC) and carbon dioxide mole fraction in wet air (CO2) and were assumed to be unrealistic above 1000 µmol m-2 s-1 and 1000 µmol mol-1 respectively. Spikes in latent and sensible heat and carbon fluxes and densities (often due to periods of precipitation) were identified by computing the mean and standard deviation over a moving, overlapping window of 336 half-hours (7 days), similar to Shao et al., and were removed when the flux was more than 1.5 standard deviations from the moving window’s mean. While Vickers and Mahrt use a threshold of 3.5 standard deviations from the mean, a conservative value of 1.5 was chosen due to the noisy nature of over-lake data at this particular site. This process was repeated twice for latent and sensible heat, and carbon dioxide fluxes and densities and therefore it is possible that some real, realistic data was filtered out in this process. No detrending was performed. As per AmeriFlux standards, no friction velocity (USTAR, m s-1) filtering was performed.

Spence, Chris [Environment and Climate Change Cana↗

Building a Real-Time Flood Prediction Model for Improving Early Warning Systems in Ellicott City, Maryland

As flood events in the United States grow in frequency and intensity, the use of applied remote sensing analyses is increasingly necessary for effective flood monitoring and warning systems. The NASA DEVELOP National Program partnered with the local government of Howard County, Maryland, to investigate the use of machine learning for advanced flood risk detection, and to test the feasibility of integrating this approach into the county’s flood early warning system. To strengthen the efforts of the Howard County Office of Emergency Management (OEM), the project developed a statistical model capable of hindcasting the two severe flash flood events that devastated Ellicott City and transitioned to a ‘Long Short-Term Memory’ based sequence-to-sequence deep learning model with 8-hour forecast capability. The team combined data inputs from public sources including river and precipitation gauges, NASA and NOAA Earth observations, and numerical weather model products using scripts written in the Google Colaboratory Python scripting environment. In addition to designing the deep learning architecture, the team trained and tested the model, and evaluated its performance using Nash-Sutcliffe Efficiency. The final product, the Sequentially Trained Real-time EstimAted Model (STREAM) predicts stage height for the Hudson Branch gauge in Ellicott City using data products available in near real-time, including the High-Resolution Rapid Refresh model’s accumulated precipitation forecasts supplemented by stream gauge data from the OEM and the U.S. Geological Survey. STREAM was incorporated into an online dashboard in a user-friendly interface capable of triggering the alarms that initiate emergency response protocols up to 8 hours in advance of a predicted severe flood event. The project demonstrated the potential for the integration of open data and Earth observations into a flood risk forecasting tool capable of informing near real-time decision making.

NASA DEVELOP↗

Building a Real-Time Predictive Flood Model for Improving Early Warning Systems in Ellicott City, Maryland

As flood events in the United States grow in frequency and intensity, the use of applied remote sensing analyses is increasingly necessary for effective flood monitoring and warning systems. The NASA DEVELOP National Program partnered with the Howard County government in Maryland to investigate the use of machine learning for advanced flood risk detection, and to test the feasibility of integrating this approach into the county’s flood early warning system. To strengthen the efforts of the Howard County Office of Emergency Management (OEM), the project developed a prediction model capable of hindcasting the two severe flash flood events that devastated Ellicott City, and transitioned to an Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) based sequence-to-sequence deep learning model with 8-hour forecast capability. The team combined data inputs from public sources including river and precipitation gauges, NASA and NOAA Earth observations, and numerical weather model products using scripts written in the Google Colaboratory Python scripting environment. In addition to designing the deep learning architecture, the team trained and tested the model, and evaluated its performance using the Nash-Sutcliffe Efficiency (NSE). The final product, called the Sequentially Trained Real-time EstimAted Model (STREAM), predicts stage height for the Hudson Branch gauge in Ellicott City using data products available in near real-time, including the High-Resolution Rapid Refresh (HRRR) model’s accumulated precipitation forecasts supplemented by stream gauge data from the OEM and the U.S. Geological Survey. STREAM was incorporated into an online dashboard in a user-friendly interface capable of triggering the alarms that initiate the OEM’s emergency response protocols up to 8 hours in advance of a predicted severe flood event. The project demonstrated the potential for the integration of open data and Earth observations into a flood risk forecasting tool capable of informing near real-time decision making.

Ryan Hammock↗

Updated Medical Waste Management Plans and Emergency Action Plans for the Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory Main Site

Attached are the updated Medical Waste Management Plans and Emergency Action Plans for Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory’s (LLNL) Biosafety Level 2 (BSL-2) facilities and Biosafety Level 3 (BSL-3) facility. A redline version of each document has also been provided. Minor changes such as facility personnel, contact information, and titles for those that support onsite Biosafety Labs at LLNL have been made to the document. It should be noted that the most recent versions of the Medical Waste Large Quantity Generator Registration Application Form and Medical Waste Management Plan were incorporated and sourced from the Alameda County Department of Environmental Health website.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Establishing nationwide power system vulnerability index across US counties using interpretable machine learning

Power outages have become increasingly frequent, intense, and prolonged in the US due to climate change, aging electrical grids, and rising energy demand. However, largely due to the absence of granular spatiotemporal outage data, we lack data-driven evidence and analytics-based metrics to quantify power system vulnerability. This limitation has hindered the ability to effectively evaluate and address vulnerability to power outages in US communities. Here, in this work, we collected ∼179 million power outage records at 15-min intervals across 3022 US contiguous counties (96.15 % of the area) from 2014 to 2023. We developed a power system vulnerability assessment framework based on three dimensions (intensity, frequency, and duration) and applied interpretable machine learning models (XGBoost and SHAP) to compute Power System Vulnerability Index (PSVI) at the county level. Our analysis reveals a consistent increase in power system vulnerability across the US counties over the past decade. We identified 318 counties across 45 states as hotspots for high power system vulnerability, particularly in the West Coast (California and Washington), the East Coast (Florida and the Northeast area), the Great Lakes megalopolis (Chicago-Detroit metropolitan areas), and the Gulf of Mexico (Texas). Our heterogeneity analysis indicates that urban counties and those located along regional transmission boundaries tend to exhibit significantly higher vulnerability. Our results highlight the significance of the proposed PSVI for evaluating the vulnerability of communities to power outages. The findings underscore the widespread and pervasive impact of power outages across the country and offer crucial insights to support infrastructure operators, policymakers, and emergency managers in formulating policies and programs aimed at enhancing the resilience of the US power infrastructure.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

Exploring Wildfire & Energy data toward State Prioritization Index (WESPI)

Energy infrastructure can both induce and suffer risks from wildfires ranging from direct damage to energy assets such as substations and power lines to Public Safety Power Shutoffs. Recent wildfire events underscore the need for data-driven approaches that help states and utilities proactively plan for wildfire risk. Existing national tools such as Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA)’s National Risk Index (NRI) are valuable for community hazard planning. However, they are less suited for energy infrastructure, as they emphasize population and building exposure rather than system vulnerabilities. In this paper, we explore relationships between energy and wildfire data and present a Wildfire-Energy State Prioritization Index (WESPI). Our methodology combines data from the US Forest Service’s Fire Simulation (FSIM) dataset with energy resilience metrics, historical fire incidents, and geospatial data on transmission lines and fire stations. Correlation analyses suggest that FSIM burn probability is more strongly associated with power outage metrics (ρ = 0.32) than NRI wildfire frequency, and counties with a greater density of fire stations experience more frequent, but less intense wildfires. We further leverage data for burn probability, transmission line density, and fire station density to develop a Wildfire-Energy State Prioritization Index (WESPI) to highlight counties where wildfire hazard, infrastructure exposure, and limited suppression capacity converge. The index provides a consistent, scalable framework for state energy offices and utilities to screen counties for vegetation management, optimization of outage management system deployment, and to inform wildfire mitigation plans.

Critical infrastructure↗

Component Assessment of the Electric Transmission Grid to Hurricanes

The increased frequency and intensity of extreme weather events from climate change necessitates understanding impacts on critical infrastructure, particularly electrical transmission grids. One of the foundational concepts of a grid's resilience is its robustness to extreme weather events, such as hurricanes. Resilience of the electric grid to high wind speeds is predicated upon the location and physical characteristics of the system components. Previous modeling assessments of electric grid failure were done at the systems level with assumptions on location and type of specific components. To facilitate more explicit adaptation metrics, accurate component-level information is needed. In this study, we build and utilize a data set of location, physical characteristics, and age of transmission structures for nine counties in the Florida Panhandle. These component characteristics were then simulated for failure under a variety of scenarios using fragility curves. Eight hurricanes were modeled using Hazus from the Federal Emergency Management Administration and the resulting impact to the network was assessed. The network was generated using the transmission lines and towers, showing increasing impacts to network efficiency with larger storms. Although modern transmission structures are built under the more stringent extreme wind loading construction standards, the prevalence of older, wooden transmission structures throughout the region poses a substantial risk to reliable electricity transmission during tropical cyclone events from the Gulf of Mexico.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

The Influence of Climate Variability and Future Climate Change on Atlantic Hurricane Season Length

Abstract Atlantic hurricane season length is important for emergency management preparation, motivating the need to understand its variability and change. We investigated the influence of ocean variability on Atlantic hurricane season length in observations and a future climate simulated by the Energy Exascale Earth System Model (E3SM). We found that multiple factors influence hurricane season length, through their influence on season start and end. Warm western subtropical Atlantic sea‐surface temperature anomalies (SSTAs) during boreal spring (before the official hurricane season start) drive early starts to the hurricane season, and vice versa for cool SSTAs. Meanwhile, La Niña in autumn (before the official hurricane season end) drives late ends to the hurricane season, and vice versa for El Niño. E3SM projects a 27‐day increase in future Atlantic hurricane season length given La Niña and warm northern tropical Atlantic SSTAs. This research documents sources of predictability for Atlantic hurricane season length.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

A baseline structure inventory with critical attribution for the US and its territories

Leveraging high performance computing, remote sensing, geographic data science, machine learning, and computer vision, Oak Ridge National Laboratory has partnered with Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA) to build a baseline structure inventory covering the US and its territories to support disaster preparedness, response, and recovery. The dataset contains more than 125 million structures with critical attribution, and is ready to be used by federal agencies, local government and first responders to accelerate on-the-ground response to disasters, further identify vulnerable areas, and develop strategies to enhance the resilience of critical structures and communities. Data can be freely and openly accessed through Figshare data repository, ESRI’s Living Atlas or FEMA’s Geodata platform.

96 KNOWLEDGE MANAGEMENT AND PRESERVATION↗

LandScan Global 30 Arcsecond Annual Global Gridded Population Datasets from 2000 to 2022

Abstract Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL) annually develops the LandScan Global (LSG) dataset, a 30 arcsecond global gridded population dataset representing global ambient human population distribution. This multivariable dasymetric model disaggregates census counts within administrative boundaries using ancillary data. Each country’s distribution reflects cultural and socioeconomic patterns; manual validations yield a unique global dataset for assessing populations at risk. For over two decades, LSG has been a standard for estimating populations at risk, aiding U.S. federal government, academia and humanitarian organizations. During disasters such as the 2004 Indian Ocean tsunami and the 2010 Haiti earthquake and geopolitical crises such as the Syrian civil war and the 2022 Russian invasion of Ukraine, LSG supported scientific and operational communities in emergency response and recovery. In 2022, LSG datasets from 2000 onward were made publicly available through ORNL’s LandScan Portal. This data descriptor details our methodology and the application of geospatial science and machine learning to geographic and demographic data, highlighting uses in urban resiliency, emergency management, disaster response, and human health and security.

Science & Technology - Other Topics↗