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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 91 records · Page 5

Catalytic Activity of an Ensemble of Sites for CO 2 Hydrogenation to Methanol on a ZrO 2 -on-Cu Inverse Catalyst

The significant increase in CO 2 emissions from heavy fossil fuel utilization has raised serious concerns, highlighting the need for effective methods to convert CO 2 into value-added chemicals. Here, in this work, we report a computational investigation on the catalytic activity of ZrO 2 -on-Cu inverse catalysts for CO 2 hydrogenation to methanol, considering highly dispersed ZrO 2 trimers on Cu (111). Such clusters present a large ensemble of formate-containing configurations, Zr 3 O n (OH) m (OCHO) l , making the evaluation of the catalytic activity very challenging. We found that the sites on the various catalyst configurations exhibit markedly different activities for formate hydrogenation, despite their similar free energy and composition. To understand these differences in reactivity, we examined the structural and electronic nature of the low free-energy catalyst configurations and identified that the energy of the lowest unoccupied orbital of the reacting formate, modified by its binding with the catalytic site, is a descriptor for the reaction energy of the formate hydrogenation step. From there, we screened an ensemble of catalyst structures using this descriptor to predict highly active metastable catalyst configurations and computed the reaction pathways and transition states for formate hydrogenation. From this investigation, we distinguished reactive from nonreactive sites and formate species on the ZrO 2 /Cu inverse catalyst based on structural and electronic features. We showed that rare metastable configurations control the activity. Additionally, an efficient method for examining the reactivity of a large number of coexisting catalyst structures was developed.

catalysts↗

The Power of Many: An Ensemble Approach to Spectral Similarity

Quantifying the similarity between two mass spectra─a known reference mass spectrum and an unidentified sample mass spectrum─is at the heart of compound identification workflows in gas chromatography–mass spectrometry (GC-MS). The reference spectrum most like the sample is assigned as its identification (provided some quantitative similarity threshold is met, e.g., 80%) and thus accurately measuring similarity is essential. Significant research has gone toward developing metrics for this purpose, each of which has attempted to improve upon existing methods by incorporating GC-MS-specific information (e.g., peak ratios or retention times) or adopting various statistical and algorithmic frameworks. While this active development has led to a plethora of similarity metrics with demonstrated value across different contexts, the unfortunate consequence has been confusion surrounding which metric should be used as a global standard. No such metric is currently accepted as the standard method because different metrics have demonstrated optimal performance in different contexts. In this work, we propose an ensemble approach to spectral similarity scoring that combines the collective information from across existing similarity metrics to form an improved, globally representative similarity metric as a step toward establishing a global standard method. In conclusion, the resulting ensemble metrics are evaluated on over 88,000 spectra of varying complexity and demonstrate improved abilities to accurately rank the correct reference spectrum as the top-matching candidate for a sample relative to the rankings generated by individual similarity scores.

Carbohydrates↗

Navigating the Noise: Bringing Clarity to ML Parameterization Design With O $\boldsymbol{\mathcal{O}}$(100) Ensembles

Abstract Machine‐learning (ML) parameterizations of subgrid processes (here of turbulence, convection, and radiation) may one day replace conventional parameterizations by emulating high‐resolution physics without the cost of explicit simulation. However, uncertainty about the relationship between offline and online performance (i.e., when integrated with a large‐scale general circulation model) hinders their development. Much of this uncertainty stems from limited sampling of the noisy, emergent effects of upstream ML design decisions on downstream online hybrid simulation. Our work rectifies the sampling issue via the construction of a semi‐automated, end‐to‐end pipeline for size ensembles of hybrid simulations, revealing important nuances in how systematic reductions in offline error manifest in changes to online error and online stability. For example, removing dropout and switching from a Mean Squared Error to a Mean Absolute Error loss both reduce offline error, but they have opposite effects on online error and online stability. Other design decisions, like incorporating memory, converting moisture input from specific humidity to relative humidity, using batch normalization, and training on multiple climates do not come with any such compromises. Finally, we show that ensemble sizes of may be necessary to reliably detect causally relevant differences online. By enabling rapid online experimentation at scale, we can empirically settle debates regarding subgrid ML parameterization design that would have otherwise remained unresolved in the noise.

Lin, Jerry [Department of Earth System Sciences Un↗

One‐at‐a‐Time Parameter Perturbation Ensemble of the Community Land Model, Version 5.1

Comprehensive land models are subject to significant parametric uncertainty, which can be hard to quantify due to the large number of parameters and high model computational costs. We constructed a large parameter perturbation ensemble (PPE) for the Community Land Model version 5.1 with biogeochemistry configuration (CLM5.1-BGC). We performed more than 2,000 simulations perturbing 211 parameters across six forcing scenarios. This provides an expansive data set, which can be used to identify the most influential parameters on a wide range of output variables globally, by biome, or by plant functional type. We found that parameter effects can exceed scenario effects and that a small number of parameters explains a large fraction of variance across our ensemble. The most important parameters can differ regionally and also based on the forcing scenario. The software infrastructure developed for this experiment has greatly reduced the human and computer time needed for CLM PPEs, which can facilitate routine investigation of parameter sensitivity and uncertainty, as well as automated calibration.

Kennedy, Daniel [NSF National Center for Atmospher↗

The Influence of African Easterly Waves on Atlantic Tropical Cyclone Tracks and Landfall in Large Ensembles

African easterly waves (AEWs) are an important precursor or “seed” for Atlantic tropical cyclones (TCs), with 60%–80% of major hurricanes observed to originate from AEWs. However, climate model simulations indicate that AEWs are not necessary to maintain annual Atlantic TC frequency. Furthermore, small ensembles suggest that AEWs may impact the spatial distribution and landfall of Atlantic TCs. Here, we investigated the influence of AEWs on the spatial distribution of Atlantic TC tracks and landfall using 50-member ensembles of TC-permitting regional model simulations for five hurricane seasons characterized by different levels of TC activity. The control simulations are seasonal hindcasts in which AEWs were prescribed through the eastern lateral boundary condition using reanalysis. In the experiments, we suppressed AEWs by applying a 2–10 day filter to the eastern lateral boundary condition. In response to AEW suppression, we discovered statistically significant increases in Atlantic TC frequency (10%–26%) and landfall (16%–44%), a westward shift in TC genesis location and tracks with increased landfall over the Caribbean Islands, southwestern Gulf Coast, and southeastern US coast, and increases in mid-tropospheric relative humidity in the main development region. In addition, we evaluated TC genesis mechanisms in the absence of AEWs and found evidence that the intertropical convergence zone (ITCZ) intensified and extended northward, resulting in ITCZ wave-breaking that shed vortices which served as TC seeds. By uncovering the connections between TC seed types and the likelihood of TC landfall, this research can provide Atlantic coastal and island communities with useful information to prepare for TC impacts.

African easterly waves↗

Interpretable ensemble learning unveils main aerosol optical properties in predicting cloud condensation nuclei number concentration

Variations in cloud condensation nuclei number concentration (N CCN ) significantly influence cloud microphysics, yet direct N CCN measurements remain challenging. Here, we present an N CCN ensemble learning (NEL) model utilizing ensemble learning and interpretability analysis on aerosol optical parameters. Validated at two land sites, two ocean sites and one polar site within the Atmospheric Radiation Measurement program, the mean absolute percentage error range of the NEL model across different environments is from 12% to 36%, demonstrating high accuracy. Key findings reveal that aerosol optical parameters can serve as predictors for N CCN . Aerosol scattering and backscattering coefficients, absorption coefficient, backscatter fraction (BSF), and Ångström exponent (AE) are positively correlated with N CCN , while single scattering albedo shows negative correlations. N CCN prediction at land sites is highly sensitive to BSF, largely driven by the backscattering coefficient, as fine particles dominate in these sites. At ocean sites, N CCN prediction is more sensitive to AE, primarily influenced by the scattering coefficient, due to the higher proportion of larger particles. At the polar site, N CCN prediction shows sensitivity to both BSF and AE, mainly driven by the scattering coefficient, as polar sites are cleaner and contain larger particles. These differences reflect the variation in particle size and number concentration across different environments.

Atmospheric science↗

Resolving local ordering and structure in Mn x Ge 1- x Te alloys through thermodynamic ensembles of pair distribution functions

Characterizing local bonding environments in complex materials is essential for understanding and optimizing their properties. Equally as important is the ability to predict local motifs as a function of synthesis conditions, enhancing chemists’ ability to design properties into materials. In this study, we present an approach to leverage statistical mechanics to generate temperature- and energy-informed ensemble averaged pair distribution functions (PDFs). This method, which we have named Thermodynamic Ensemble Averages of PDFs for Ordering and Transformations (TEAPOT), utilizes density functional theory (DFT) to relax supercells while incorporating energetic penalties for local order, enabling accurate and computationally efficient analysis of local structure. We apply this method to the neutron PDF measurements of the pseudobinary MnTe–GeTe (MGT) alloy, demonstrating its capability to resolve complex local distortions and chemical ordering. Our results reveal detailed insights into phase transformations and local distortions driven by Mn substitution. For compositions that globally present as rock salt, our analysis reveals that Ge coordination geometry is heavily impacted by synthesis temperature. We propose that high temperature synthesis conditions promote a lowered Ge polyhedra distortion, promoting high charge carrier mobility due to the alignment of local and global structure. Incorporating statistical mechanics and computation into experimental analysis thus guides synthesis of tailored local structure.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Multiphasic size-dependent growth dynamics of nanoparticle ensembles

Colloidal nanoparticles are of great interest in modern science and industry. However, the thermodynamic mechanism and dynamics of nanoparticle growth have yet to be understood. Addressing these issues, we tracked hundreds of in-situ growth trajectories of a nanoparticle ensemble using liquid-phase TEM and found that the nanoparticle growth, including coalescence, exhibits nanoparticle size-dependent multiphasic dynamics, unexplainable by current theories. Motivated by this finding, we developed a model and theory for an ensemble of growing nanoparticles, providing a unified, quantitative understanding of the time-dependent mean and fluctuation of nanoparticle size and size-dependent growth rate profiles across various nanoparticle systems and experimental conditions. Our work reveals that the chemical potential in a small nanoparticle strongly deviates from the Gibbs-Thomson equation, shedding light on how it governs the size-dependent growth dynamics of nanoparticles.

Kim, Ji-Hyun↗

Changing windstorm characteristics over the US Northeast in a single model large ensemble

Abstract Extreme windstorms pose a significant hazard to infrastructure and public safety, particularly in the highly populated US Northeast (NE). However, the influence climate change and changing land use will have on these events remains unclear. A large ensemble generated using the Max-Planck Institute (MPI) Earth system model is used to generate projections of NE windstorms under different shared socioeconomic pathways (SSPs) and to attribute changes to projected land use land cover (LULC) change, externally forced changes and internal climate variability. To reduce the influence of coarse grid cell resolution and uncertainties in surface roughness lengths, windstorms are identified using simultaneous widespread exceedance of local 99th percentile 10 m wind speeds (U 99 ). Projected declines in forest cover in the NE and the resulting reductions in surface roughness length under SSP3-7.0 lead to projections of large increases in U 99 and derived windstorm intensity and scale. However, these projected changes in regional LULC under SSP3-7.0 are unprecedented in a historical context and may not be realistic. After corrections are applied to remove the influence of LULC on wind speeds, regionally averaged U 99 exhibit declines for most of the single model initial-condition large ensemble (SMILE) members which are broadly proportional to the radiative forcing and global air temperature increase in the SSPs, with a median value of −0.15 ms −1 °C −1 . While weak cyclones are projected to decline in frequency in the NE, intense cyclones and the resulting windstorms and indices of socioeconomic loss do not. Where present, significant trends in these loss indices are positive, and some MPI SMILE members generate future windstorms that are unprecedented in the historical period.

Coburn, Jacob (ORCID:0000000309538117)↗

Structural basis of differential gene expression at eQTLs loci from high-resolution ensemble models of 3D single-cell chromatin conformations

Abstract Motivation Techniques such as high-throughput chromosome conformation capture (Hi-C) have provided a wealth of information on nucleus organization and genome important for understanding gene expression regulation. Genome-Wide Association Studies have identified numerous loci associated with complex traits. Expression quantitative trait loci (eQTL) studies have further linked the genetic variants to alteration in expression levels of associated target genes across individuals. However, the functional roles of many eQTLs in noncoding regions remain unclear. Current joint analyses of Hi-C and eQTLs data lack advanced computational tools, limiting what can be learned from these data. Results We developed a computational method for simultaneous analysis of Hi-C and eQTL data, capable of identifying a small set of nonrandom interactions from all Hi-C interactions. Using these nonrandom interactions, we reconstructed large ensembles (×105) of high-resolution single-cell 3D chromatin conformations with thorough sampling, accurately replicating Hi-C measurements. Our results revealed many-body interactions in chromatin conformation at the single-cell level within eQTL loci, providing a detailed view of how 3D chromatin structures form the physical foundation for gene regulation, including how genetic variants of eQTLs affect the expression of associated eGenes. Furthermore, our method can deconvolve chromatin heterogeneity and investigate the spatial associations of eQTLs and eGenes at subpopulation level, revealing their regulatory impacts on gene expression. Together, ensemble modeling of thoroughly sampled single-cell chromatin conformations combined with eQTL data, helps decipher how 3D chromatin structures provide the physical basis for gene regulation, expression control, and aid in understanding the overall structure-function relationships of genome organization. Availability and implementation It is available at https://github.com/uic-liang-lab/3DChromFolding-eQTL-Loci.

Du, Lin (ORCID:0009000289869812)↗

Applications of flow models to the generation of correlated lattice QCD ensembles

Machine-learned normalizing flows can be used in the context of lattice quantum field theory to generate statistically correlated ensembles of lattice gauge fields at different action parameters. This work demonstrates how these correlations can be exploited for variance reduction in the computation of observables. Three different proof-of-concept applications are demonstrated using a novel residual flow architecture: continuum limits of gauge theories, the mass dependence of QCD observables, and hadronic matrix elements based on the Feynman–Hellmann approach. In all three cases, it is shown that statistical uncertainties are significantly reduced when machine-learned flows are incorporated as compared with the same calculations performed with uncorrelated ensembles or direct reweighting. Published by the American Physical Society 2024

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗

Feature Engineering and Ensemble Methods for Imbalanced ICS Intrusion Detection: Pipeline Audit and Constrained Evaluation

Industries are becoming increasingly connected and are more vulnerable to cyberattacks due to the widened attack surface. Industrial Control Systems (ICS) are among the most critical sectors that malicious actors can target, as such attacks can cause significant operational disruption and physical damage. It is imperative to detect such attacks as early as possible. This paper evaluates constraint-conditioned optimistic performance estimates for traditional ML models in ICS intrusion detection (i.e., estimates obtained under contiguous, non-shuffled temporal evaluation without test-set alteration, but with pre-split feature engineering that may introduce temporal leakage, due to dataset constraints). Our findings are threefold. First, we quantify how iterative feature engineering affects tree-based ensemble performance and examine how pipeline decisions (split strategy, sampling scope, and cleaning policy) can inflate or reduce reported IDS results under constraint-bound evaluation. Second, we compare intrinsic class-imbalance handling across ensemble models. Third, under our current pipeline constraints (including pre-split feature engineering), CatBoost achieves the best performance on Water Storage Tank (accuracy: 0.9831, class-1 F1: 0.9682), while Light- GBM achieves the best performance on Gas Pipeline (accuracy: 0.9618, class-1 F1: 0.9086).

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

A copula-based rank histogram ensemble filter

Serial ensemble filters implement triangular probability transport maps to reduce high-dimensional inference problems to sequences of state-by-state univariate inference problems. The univariate inference problems are solved by sampling posterior probability densities obtained by combining constructed prior densities with observational likelihoods according to Bayes' rule. Many serial filters in the literature focus on representing the marginal posterior densities of each state. However, rigorously capturing the conditional dependencies between the different univariate inferences is crucial to correctly sampling multidimensional posteriors. This work proposes a new serial ensemble filter, called the copula rank histogram filter (CoRHF), that seeks to capture the conditional dependency structure between variables via empirical copula estimates; these estimates are used to rigorously implement the triangular (state-by-state univariate) Bayesian inference. The success of the CoRHF is demonstrated on two-dimensional examples and the Lorenz'63 problem. A practical extension to the high-dimensional setting is developed by localizing the empirical copula estimation, and is demonstrated on the Lorenz'96 problem.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Electrocatalytic alkene epoxidation at disrupted metal ensembles in blended electrolytes

The project aims to achieve a molecular understanding of oxygen-atom transfer from water to alkenes at electrocatalytic interfaces. Molecular oxygen is the most common oxygen-atom source for epoxidations, and our group is developing sustainable routes through which epoxidation of olefins is achieved using water as the oxygen source. This route can improve the safety of the reaction while also co-producing hydrogen, demonstrating the relevance of this reaction to the energy transition. If successful in our efforts, we may enable oxygen-atom transfer reactions at the anode of water electrolyzers in the place of conventional oxygen evolution, allowing for the synthesis of sustainable value-added co-products. In this vein, we explore several approaches to acquiring high selectivity toward epoxidation over competing reactions, such as oxygen evolution. One of our aims is to allow for rational control of epoxide selectivity by disrupting contiguous metal ensembles at the surface of catalytic metal oxide nanoparticles. Specifically, we aim to synthesize single-atom, few-atom, and many-atom clusters supported on metal oxides and study the mechanism of oxygen evolution and alkene epoxidation on these materials. Thus, this approach will determine the impact of disrupting metal ensembles on the selectivity for alkene epoxidation versus oxygen evolution in blended electrolytes. Another aim is to develop a molecular-level understanding of how a blended electrolyte (i.e., a mixture of aqueous and organic solvents) influences rates of alkene epoxidation versus oxygen evolution. In other words, we are interested in understanding the catalytic influence of the solvent, as our preliminary work shows that the selectivity and reactivity of epoxidation depend strongly on the solvent composition. This investigation includes blended electrolytes and electrolytes containing redox mediator species that improve selectivity toward the desired epoxidation reaction. Overall, our proposed work will help to provide a detailed molecular-level picture of how solvents interact with substrates at the electrode-electrolyte interface, including their involvement in proton transfer reactions and screening of electric fields.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

A physics-based ensemble machine-learning approach to identifying a relationship between lightning indices and binary lightning hazard

To convert lightning indices generated by numerical weather prediction experiments into binary lightning hazard, a machine-learning tool was developed. This tool, consisting of parallel multilayer perceptron classifiers, was trained on an ensemble of planetary boundary layer schemes and microphysics parameterizations that generated four different lightning indices over 1 week. In a subsequent week, the multi-physics ensemble was applied and the machine-learning tool was used to evaluate the accuracy. Unintuitively, the machine-learning tool performed better on the testing dataset than the training dataset. Much of the error may be attributed to mischaracterizing the convection. The combination of the machine learning model and simulations could not differentiate between cloud-to-cloud lightning and cloud-to-ground lightning, despite being trained on cloud-to-ground lightning. It was found that the simulation most representative of the local operational model was the most accurate simulation tested.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Explosion Detection Using Smartphones: Ensemble Learning with the Smartphone High-Explosive Audio Recordings Dataset and the ESC-50 Dataset

Explosion monitoring is performed by infrasound and seismoacoustic sensor networks that are distributed globally, regionally, and locally. However, these networks are unevenly and sparsely distributed, especially at the local scale, as maintaining and deploying networks is costly. With increasing interest in smaller-yield explosions, the need for more dense networks has increased. To address this issue, we propose using smartphone sensors for explosion detection as they are cost-effective and easy to deploy. Although there are studies using smartphone sensors for explosion detection, the field is still in its infancy and new technologies need to be developed. We applied a machine learning model for explosion detection using smartphone microphones. The data used were from the Smartphone High-explosive Audio Recordings Dataset (SHAReD), a collection of 326 waveforms from 70 high-explosive (HE) events recorded on smartphones, and the ESC-50 dataset, a benchmarking dataset commonly used for environmental sound classification. Two machine learning models were trained and combined into an ensemble model for explosion detection. The resulting ensemble model classified audio signals as either “explosion”, “ambient”, or “other” with true positive rates (recall) greater than 96% for all three categories.

45 MILITARY TECHNOLOGY, WEAPONRY, AND NATIONAL DEF↗

An extensible perturbed parameter ensemble for the Community Atmosphere Model version 6

This paper documents the methodology and preliminary results from a perturbed parameter ensemble (PPE) technique, where multiple parameters are varied simultaneously and the parameter values are determined with Latin hypercube sampling. This is done with the Community Atmosphere Model version 6 (CAM6), the atmospheric component of the Community Earth System Model version 2 (CESM2). We apply the PPE method to CESM2–CAM6 to understand climate sensitivity to atmospheric physics parameters. The initial simulations vary 45 parameters in the microphysics, convection, turbulence and aerosol schemes with 263 ensemble members. These atmospheric parameters are typically the most uncertain in many climate models. Control simulations and targeted simulations to understand climate forcing due to aerosols and fast climate feedbacks are analyzed. The use of various emulators is explored in the multi-dimensional space mapping input parameters to output metrics. Parameter impacts on various model outputs, such as radiation, cloud and aerosol properties, are evaluated. Machine learning is also used to probe optimal parameter values against observations. Our findings show that PPE is a valuable tool for climate uncertainty analysis. Furthermore, by varying many parameters simultaneously, we find that many different combinations of parameter values can produce results consistent with observations, and thus careful analysis of tuning is important. The CESM2–CAM6 PPE is publicly available and extensible to other configurations to address questions of other model processes in the atmosphere and other model components (e.g., coupling to the land surface).

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

E3SMv3 ‘Nephele’ Perturbed Parameter Ensemble Value-Added Product for ENA, SGP, NSA, and Global Means

Processed output from the E3SMv3 Nephele perturbed parameter ensemble (PPE). This product contains global means of present-day (using 2010 aerosol forcings) and preindustrial (using 1850 aerosol forcings) monthly and daily global-mean quantities, as well as hourly mean quantities at the E3SMv3 model grid cell closest to the ENA, SGP, and NSA ARM sites. In this PPE, the E3SMv3 model was run for 27 months in an atmosphere-only configuration with free tropospheric winds nudged to reanalysis. Each ensemble member represents a unique combination of 25 model parameter values (in the microphysics, convective microphysics, and aerosol schemes) that were perturbed randomly and simultaneously. The E3SMv3 default configuration is included as member 0. See https://doi.org/10.22541/essoar.174907165.57104591/v1 (in review) for more information on the Nephele PPE and the perturbed parameters.

Model atmospheric temperature↗