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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2025

Resilient State Recovery Using Prior Measurement Support Information

Resilient state recovery of cyber-physical systems has attracted much research attention due to the unique challenges posed by the tight coupling between communication, computation, and the underlying physics of such systems. By modeling attacks as additive adversary signals to a sparse subset of measurements, this resilient recovery problem can be formulated as an error correction problem. To achieve exact state recovery, most existing results require less than 50% of the measurement nodes to be compromised, which limits the resiliency of the estimators. In this paper, we show that observer resiliency can be further improved by incorporating data-driven prior information. Here, we provide an analytical bridge between the precision of prior information and the resiliency of the estimator. By quantifying the relationship between the estimation error of the weighted ℓ 1 observer and the precision of the support prior, this quantified relationship provides guidance for the estimator’s weight design to achieve optimal resiliency. Several numerical simulations and an application case study are presented to validate the theoretical claims.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗
DOE OSTI2025

Covariance operator estimation: Sparsity, lengthscale, and ensemble Kalman filters

This paper investigates covariance operator estimation via thresholding. For Gaussian random fields with approximately sparse covariance operators, we establish non-asymptotic bounds on the estimation error in terms of the sparsity level of the covariance and the expected supremum of the field. We prove that thresholded estimators enjoy an exponential improvement in sample complexity compared with the standard sample covariance estimator if the field has a small correlation lengthscale. As an application of the theory, we study thresholded estimation of covariance operators within ensemble Kalman filters.

Covariance operator estimation↗
DOE OSTI2024

Fe Kα XANES, Fe Kβ HERFD XANES and EPMA flank method determinations of the oxidation state of Fe in garnet

The ferric to total iron ratios (Fe 3+ /ΣFe) of garnets can be paired with thermodynamic mineral activity models to quantify the oxygen fugacity of garnet-bearing rocks. However, techniques with a high analytical and spatial resolution are necessary to distinguish differences in garnet Fe 3+ /ΣFe ratios at the percent level and to accurately measure garnets that are zoned or contain inclusions. We acquired conventional Fe Kα and high-resolution energy fluorescence detection (HERFD) Fe Kβ X-ray absorption near edge structure (XANES) spectra and electron microprobe flank method analyses on a suite of 27 peridotitic and eclogitic garnets with Fe 3+ /ΣFe ratios previously determined by Mössbauer spectroscopy to evaluate the precision of each technique. We examined variations in the energy and intensity of three XANES spectral features as a function of Fe 3+ /ΣFe ratios: 1) the intensity ratio of two-post edge features (I-ratio; Fe Kα only); 2) the energy of the Fe edge at 90% normalized intensity (E 0.9 ; Fe Kα only) and 3) the pre-edge centroid energy (Fe Kα and HERFD Fe Kβ). In accordance with previous work, we find the energies of garnet pre-edge centroids are relatively insensitive to Fe 3+ /ΣFe ratios. The I-ratios of peridotitic and eclogitic garnets are offset from each other at low Fe 3+ /ΣFe ratios (≤0.13); I-ratio garnet XANES calibrations are composition-specific. The E 0.9 feature is independent of garnet major element composition in spectra that have been corrected for the effects of self-absorption. We produce two Fe Kα garnet XANES calibrations based on variations in the E0.9 feature; one calibration with all garnet reference materials included (Fe 3+ /ΣFe up to 1.0; “all garnet calibration”) and another calibration specific to garnets with low Fe 3+ /ΣFe ratios (“low ferric calibration”). Fe 3+ /ΣFe ratios calculated from the mean of up to 25 flank method measurements on eight garnet reference materials fall within 4% absolute of a one-to-one correlation with Fe 3+ /ΣFe ratios measured by Mössbauer. The standard error of the mean Fe 3+ /ΣFe ratio calculated from flank method approaches the Mössbauer-determined Fe 3+ /ΣFe ratio within estimated error (3%) after three analyses. Flank method precision is enhanced at higher beam current; however, the precision of the flank method does not approach the precision of XANES under any microprobe analytical condition tested here. Garnet reference materials detailed here are available by request to the Smithsonian Institution.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

Estimation of sensor measurement errors in reactor coolant systems using multi-sensor fusion

A nuclear power plant is typically instrumented with a variety of sensors to continually monitor its variables, and their sensor’s measurements may be used to assess the plant state and initiate safety actions, if needed. Errors in sensor measurements, due to factors such as calibration drifts, critically affect such state assessments. Here, we address a problem of estimating sensor errors using physics-informed machine learning methods that use measurements collected under known plant conditions. For a given sensor, we propose an information fusion method that uses measurements from other sensors to estimate its output assuming it is error-free and provides its difference from an actual measurement as an error estimate. We present the ensemble of trees and support vector machine fusers, and evaluate their performance using measurements collected over an emulated test loop of a pressurized water reactor. The plant variables are related to each other through the underlying physical laws under inertial constraints that place bounds on their derivatives, which analytically justify the applicability of machine learning methods for computing these fusers. Under twenty scenarios, we assess their sensor error estimates for pressure sensors of the heat exchanger of a reactor’s primary coolant system. Multiple types of errors are captured by both fusers under externally induced calibration drifts, blockages, minor leaks and air gaps in sensing lines, and electromagnetic interference; the root mean square error of the estimation of error is under 2.2% percent of the maximum measurement. We present generalization equations, in the framework of statistical learning theory, for these methods that characterize the confidence probability that the estimation error is bounded by a specified parameter in future test scenarios.

21 SPECIFIC NUCLEAR REACTORS AND ASSOCIATED PLANTS↗
DOE OSTI2024

Red–green–blue Boolean image analysis of particulate debris laced with luminescent tracers

Abstract Particulate mass estimation from 3-pixel images is desirable in many fields. Red–green–blue (RGB) analysis and Boolean logic were shown to estimate the mass of luminescent tracers in microscopic images. With a controlled background intensity, an estimation error of 1.8 to 3.5% was achieved; in uncontrolled backgrounds, an error of about 18% was achieved. RGB analysis is a valuable tool for spatial location of particulates. This work shows it is possible to estimate the particulate mass in an image and gives RGB an extension into mass quantification that has far-reaching impacts in fields involving the fate and transport of particulate matter. Graphical abstract

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2022

Real-Time Distribution System State Estimation with Asynchronous Measurements

We report state estimation is a fundamental task in power systems. Although distribution systems are increasingly equipped with sensing devices and smart meters, measurements are typically reported at different rates and asynchronously; these aspects pose severe strains on workhorse state estimation algorithms, which are designed to process batches of data collected in a synchronous manner from all the measurement units. In this paper, we develop a novel state estimation algorithm to continuously update the estimate of the state based on measurements received in an asynchronous manner from measurement units. The synthesis of the algorithm hinges on a proximal-point type method, implemented in an online fashion, and capable of processing measurements received sequentially from sensors. A performance analysis is presented by providing bounds on the estimation error in terms of the mean and variance that hold at each iteration and asymptotically. The scheme is also compared with a more traditional Weighted Least Squares estimator that compensates for the lack of measurement data by using, as pseudo measurements, the measurement retrieved during a certain time window. Numerical simulations on the IEEE 37-bus feeder corroborate the analytical findings.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗
DOE OSTI2022

Forecasting battery capacity and power degradation with multi-task learning

Lithium-ion batteries degrade due to usage and exposure to environmental conditions, which affects their capability to store energy and supply power. Accurately predicting the capacity and power fade of lithium-ion battery cells is challenging due to intrinsic manufacturing variances and coupled nonlinear ageing mechanisms. In this paper, we propose a data-driven prognostics framework to predict both capacity and power fade simultaneously with multi-task learning. The model is able to predict the degradation trajectory of both capacity and internal resistance together with knee-points and end-of-life points accurately at early-life stage. The validation shows an average percentage error of 2.37% and 1.24% for the prediction of capacity fade and resistance rise, respectively. The model's ability to accurately predict the degradation, facing capacity and resistance estimation errors, further demonstrates the model's robustness and generalizability. Compared with single-task learning models for forecasting capacity and power degradation, the model shows a significant prediction accuracy improvement and computational cost reduction. This work presents the highlights of multi-task learning in the degradation prognostics for lithium-ion batteries.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗
DOE OSTI2025

Covariance operator estimation via adaptive thresholding

This paper studies sparse covariance operator estimation for nonstationary processes with sharply varying marginal variance and small correlation lengthscale. We introduce a covariance operator estimator that adaptively thresholds the sample covariance function using an estimate of the variance component. Building on recent results from empirical process theory, we derive an operator norm bound on the estimation error in terms of the sparsity level of the covariance and the expected supremum of a normalized process. Furthermore, our theory and numerical simulations demonstrate the advantage of adaptive threshold estimators over universal threshold and sample covariance estimators in nonstationary settings.

Al-Ghattas, Omar [University of Chicago, IL (Unite↗
DOE OSTI2024

Measurement of D-T Neutron Source Flux by SelfNeutron Activation Analysis with a LaBr3 Detector

Conclusions: • Decay of 78Br produced from the 79Br(n,2n) reaction in LaBr3 is present in the spectrum plotted in the time domain. • The neutron production rate reconstructed from preliminary LaBr3 estimate is smaller than the generator output. • Generator characterization may become more routine if a simple and robust method is made available for applications. Ongoing work: • Implementing bootstrapping to improve error estimates. • Examining threshold and edge effects of LaBr3

SMITH, MURRY↗
DOE OSTI2022

Learning high-dimensional parametric maps via reduced basis adaptive residual networks

We propose a scalable framework for the learning of high-dimensional parametric maps via adaptively constructed residual network (ResNet) maps between reduced bases of the inputs and outputs. When just few training data are available, it is beneficial to have a compact parametrization in order to ameliorate the ill-posedness of the neural network training problem. By linearly restricting high-dimensional maps to informed reduced bases of the inputs, one can compress high-dimensional maps in a constructive way that can be used to detect appropriate basis ranks, equipped with rigorous error estimates. A scalable neural network learning framework is thus to learn the nonlinear compressed reduced basis mapping. Unlike the reduced basis construction, however, neural network constructions are not guaranteed to reduce errors by adding representation power, making it difficult to achieve good practical performance. Inspired by recent approximation theory that connects ResNets to sequential minimizing flows, we present an adaptive ResNet construction algorithm. This algorithm allows for depth-wise enrichment of the neural network approximation, in a manner that can achieve good practical performance by first training a shallow network and then adapting. We prove universal approximation of the associated neural network class for $L^2_v$ functions on compact sets. Our overall framework allows for constructive means to detect appropriate breadth and depth, and related compact parametrizations of neural networks, significantly reducing the need for architectural hyperparameter tuning. Numerical experiments for parametric PDE problems and a 3D CFD wing design optimization parametric map demonstrate that the proposed methodology can achieve remarkably high accuracy for limited training data, and outperformed other neural network strategies we compared against.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2025

Weak Form Scientific Machine Learning: Test Function Construction for System Identification

Weak form Scientific Machine Learning (WSciML) is a recently developed framework for data-driven modeling and scientific discovery. It leverages the weak form of equation error residuals to provide enhanced noise robustness in system identification via convolving model equations with test functions, reformulating the problem to avoid direct differentiation of data. The performance, however, relies on wisely choosing a set of compactly supported test functions. In this work, we mathematically motivate a novel data-driven method for constructing Single-scale-Local reference functions for creating the set of test functions. Our approach numerically approximates the integration error introduced by the quadrature and identifies the support size for which the error is minimal, without requiring access to the model parameter values. Through numerical experiments across various models, noise levels, and temporal resolutions, we demonstrate that the selected supports consistently align with regions of minimal parameter estimation error. We also compare the proposed method against the strategy for constructing Multi-scale-Global (and orthogonal) test functions introduced in our prior work, demonstrating the improved computational efficiency.

FOS: Computer and information sciences↗
DOE OSTI2020

A study of shock initiation experiments for the explosive PBX 9502 using three reactive burn models

Shock to detonation transition (SDT) experiments are essential in calibrating and validating reactive burn models for explosives. This work investigates the large collection of SDT test data for the explosive PBX 9502 at ambient temperature that was presented by Gustavsen, Sheffield, and Alcon [Journal of Applied Physics, 99, 114907 (2006)]. We first analyze the experimental data and compare two different methods of determining the shock transition time/distance (namely, the bilinear method and the single-curve method). This reveals some of the uncertainty in estimating shock transition points, which contributes to scatter in Pop-plot data. Next, we compare the WSD, AWSD, and SURFplus reactive burn models for a collection of approximately 20 experimental shots using the FLAG hydrocode. Error estimates are used to quantify how well each reactive burn model (and their respective parameter calibrations) performs at predicting the SDT process for a range of loading conditions. Additionally, the importance of mesh resolution and numerical dissipation in SDT simulations will be assessed.

75 CONDENSED MATTER PHYSICS, SUPERCONDUCTIVITY AND↗
DOE OSTI2026

Large-momentum effective theory’s asymptotic extrapolation vs the inverse problem

Large-momentum effective theory is a physics-guided systematic expansion to calculate light-cone parton distributions, including collinear (PDFs) and transverse-momentum-dependent ones, at any fixed momentum fraction 𝑥 within a range of [𝑥 min , 𝑥 max ]. It theoretically solves the ill-posed inverse problem that afflicts other theoretical approaches to collinear PDFs, such as short-distance factorizations. Recently, Dutrieux et al. raised practical concerns about whether current or even future lattice data will have sufficient precision in the subasymptotic correlation region to support an error-controlled extrapolation—and if not, whether it becomes an inverse problem where the relevant uncertainties cannot be properly quantified. While we agree that not all current lattice data have the desired precision to qualify for an asymptotic extrapolation, some calculations do, and more are expected in the future. We comment on the analysis and results in Dutrieux et al. and argue that a physics-based systematic extrapolation still provides the most reliable error estimates, even when the data quality is not ideal. In contrast, reframing the long-distance asymptotic extrapolation as a data-driven-only inverse problem with ad hoc mathematical conditioning could lead to unnecessarily conservative errors.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2022

Error analysis of numerical methods for thick diffusive neutron transport problems on Shishkin mesh

A thin layer will develop at the boundary if the incoming angular flux is anisotropic in thick diffusive neutron transport problems. Solving such singularly perturbed problems, which have non-smooth solutions with singularity near the boundary, is computationally challenging. Standard finite difference schemes on a uniform mesh cannot yield ε-uniform convergence, where ε is a small parameter, while it can be achieved on a suitable piecewise-uniform Shishkin mesh. We present a formal error analysis of the diamond difference (DD) method and step difference (SD) method for solving the S{sub N} neutron transport equation. The analysis can be extended to other finite difference methods. Numerical results are presented to confirm the error estimates and the advantages of the Shishkin mesh. (author)

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗
DOE OSTI2022

Frequency Domain Detection and Precoding for Massive MIMO With Single Carrier Modulation

Single carrier modulation (SCM) schemes are attractive for uplink (UL) transmissions due to improved power efficiency at the user equipment (UE) transmitter compared with multi-carrier modulation schemes. In a massive MIMO scenario with SCM, the UL detection must mitigate the effects of inter-symbol interference and multiuser interference. This processing is effectively performed in the frequency domain (FD) using a minimum mean squared error (MMSE) detector when the transmission is framed with a cyclic prefix. This paper presents a MMSEbased detector that is compatible with distributed processing in a time-division duplex (TDD) system. The matrix inverses computed for the UL detection are then reused to perform multi-user precoding for the downlink (DL). We find that this scheme yields a tremendous savings in computational complexity compared to commonly used zero-forcing (ZF) precoding without sacrificing any performance. Since MMSE processing introduces a bias to the estimates, we then derive the scalar coefficients necessary to cancel the MMSE bias. The impact of channel estimation errors are analyzed for both the UL and DL cases in conjunction with a power-efficient approach to SCM channel estimation. Moreover, extensive simulations are performed to confirm our theoretical findings.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2021

Efficient Active Learning for Gaussian Process Classification by Error Reduction

Active learning sequentially selects the best instance for labeling by optimizing an acquisition function to enhance data/label efficiency. The selection can be either from a discrete instance set (pool-based scenario) or a continuous instance space (query synthesis scenario). In this work, we study both active learning scenarios for Gaussian Process Classification (GPC). The existing active learning strategies that maximize the Estimated Error Reduction (EER) aim at reducing the classification error after training with the new acquired instance in a onestep-look-ahead manner. The computation of EER-based acquisition functions is typically prohibitive as it requires retraining the GPC with every new query. Moreover, as the EER is not smooth, it can not be combined with gradient-based optimization techniques to efficiently explore the continuous instance space for query synthesis. To overcome these critical limitations, we develop computationally efficient algorithms for EER-based active learning with GPC. Further, we derive the joint predictive distribution of label pairs as a one-dimensional integral, as a result of which the computation of the acquisition function avoids retraining the GPC for each query, remarkably reducing the computational overhead. We also derive the gradient chain rule to efficiently calculate the gradient of the acquisition function, which leads to the first query synthesis active learning algorithm implementing EER-based strategies. Our experiments clearly demonstrate the computational efficiency of the proposed algorithms. We also benchmark our algorithms on both synthetic and real-world datasets, which show superior performance in terms of sampling efficiency compared to the existing state-of-the-art algorithms.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2024

A Contextually Supervised Optimization-Based HVAC Load Disaggregation Methodology

This paper presents a novel contextually supervised optimization-based approach for disaggregating heating, ventilation, and air-conditioning (HVAC) loads using smart meter or Supervisory Control and Data Acquisition data. To disaggregate the load into HVAC loads, large and infrequently used loads (LIUL), and base loads, we formulate an optimization problem to minimize a set of five loss terms, consisting of the reconstruction errors of the overall load profile, the ramp rate losses, and three distinct loss functions linked with the HVAC load, base load, and LIUL, respectively. To enhance accuracy, we incorporate two forms of contextual information into the problem formulation. First, we utilize mutual information to estimate HVAC energy consumption. Second, we employ a base load dictionary to constrain HVAC load estimation errors. The obtained HVAC load profiles are fine-tuned by abnormal ramp detection followed by binary hypothesis testing. Here, the proposed method is developed and tested using sub-metered residential and commercial building data. Simulation results show that the proposed method outperforms existing methods across various data resolutions and load aggregation levels, showing excellent transferability and generalizability.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗
DOE OSTI2026

Extending SLUSCHI for Automated Diffusion Calculations

We present an extension of the SLUSCHI package (Solid and Liquid in Ultra Small Coexistence with Hovering Interfaces) to enable automated diffusion calculations from first-principles molecular dynamics. While the original SLUSCHI workflow was designed for melting temperature estimation via solid-liquid coexistence, we adapt its input and output handling to isolate the volume search stage and generate one production trajectory suitable for diffusion analysis. Post-processing tools parse VASP outputs, compute mean-square displacements (MSD), and extract tracer diffusivities using the Einstein relation with robust error estimates through block averaging. Diagnostic plots, including MSD curves, running slopes, and velocity autocorrelations, are produced automatically to help identify diffusive regimes. The method has been validated through representative case studies: self-diffusion in Al-Cu liquid alloys, sublattice melting in Li7La3Zr2O12 and Er2O3, interstitial oxygen transport in bcc and fcc Fe, and oxygen diffusivity in Fe-O liquids with variable Si and Al contents. Viscosity and diffusivity are linked through the Stokes-Einstein relation, with composition dependence assessed via simple linear mixing. This capability broadens SLUSCHI from melting-point predictions to transport property evaluation, enabling high-throughput, fully first-principles datasets of diffusion coefficients and viscosities across metals and oxides.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗