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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 91 records · Page 5
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2025

The impact of non-local parallel electron transport on plasma-impurity reaction rates in tokamak scrape-off layer plasmas

Abstract Plasma-impurity reaction rates are a crucial part of modelling tokamak scrape-off layer (SOL) plasmas. To avoid calculating the full set of rates for the large number of important processes involved, a set of effective rates are typically derived which assume Maxwellian electrons. However, non-local parallel electron transport may result in non-Maxwellian electrons, particularly close to divertor targets. Here, the validity of using Maxwellian-averaged rates in this context is investigated by computing the full set of rate equations for a fixed plasma background from kinetic and fluid SOL simulations. We consider the effect of the electron distribution as well as the impact of the electron transport model on plasma profiles. Results are presented for lithium, beryllium, carbon, nitrogen, neon and argon. It is found that electron distributions with enhanced high-energy tails can result in significant modifications to the ionisation balance and radiative power loss rates from excitation, on the order of 50%–75% for the latter. Fluid electron models with Spitzer-Härm or flux-limited Spitzer-Härm thermal conductivity, combined with Maxwellian electrons for rate calculations, can increase or decrease this error, depending on the impurity species and plasma conditions. Based on these results, we also discuss some approaches to experimentally observing non-local electron transport in SOL plasmas.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗
DOE OSTI2024

Lattice QCD estimates of thermal photon production from the QGP

Thermal photons produced in heavy-ion collision experiments are an important observable for understanding quark-gluon plasma (QGP). The thermal photon rate from the QGP at a given temperature can be calculated from the spectral function of the vector current correlator. Extraction of the spectral function from the lattice correlator is known to be an ill-conditioned problem, as there is no unique solution for a spectral function for a given lattice correlator with statistical errors. The vector current correlator, on the other hand, receives a large ultraviolet contribution from the vacuum, which makes the extraction of the thermal photon rate difficult from this channel. We therefore consider the difference between the transverse and longitudinal part of the spectral function, only capturing the thermal contribution to the current correlator, simplifying the reconstruction significantly. The lattice correlator is calculated for light quarks in quenched QCD at T = 470 MeV ( ∼ 1.5 T c ), as well as in 2 + 1 flavor QCD at T = 220 MeV ( ∼ 1.2 T p c ) with m π = 320 MeV . In order to quantify the nonperturbative effects, the lattice correlator is compared with the corresponding NLO + LPM LO estimate of correlator. The reconstruction of the spectral function is performed in several different frameworks, ranging from physics-informed models of the spectral function to more general models in the Backus-Gilbert method and Gaussian process regression. We find that the resulting photon rates agree within errors. Published by the American Physical Society 2024

Astronomy & Astrophysics↗
DOE OSTI2024

Recovered supernova Ia rate from simulated LSST images

Aims.TheVera C. RubinObservatory’s Legacy Survey of Space and Time (LSST) will revolutionize time-domain astronomy by detecting millions of different transients. In particular, it is expected to increase the number of known type Ia supernovae (SN Ia) by a factor of 100 compared to existing samples up to redshift ∼1.2. Such a high number of events will dramatically reduce statistical uncertainties in the analysis of the properties and rates of these objects. However, the impact of all other sources of uncertainty on the measurement of the SN Ia rate must still be evaluated. The comprehension and reduction of such uncertainties will be fundamental both for cosmology and stellar evolution studies, as measuring the SN Ia rate can put constraints on the evolutionary scenarios of different SN Ia progenitors. Methods.We used simulated data from the Dark Energy Science Collaboration (DESC) Data Challenge 2 (DC2) and LSST Data Preview 0 to measure the SN Ia rate on a 15 deg 2 region of the “wide-fast-deep” area. We selected a sample of SN candidates detected in difference images, associated them to the host galaxy with a specially developed algorithm, and retrieved their photometric redshifts. We then tested different light-curve classification methods, with and without redshift priors (albeit ignoring contamination from other transients, as DC2 contains only SN Ia). We discuss how the distribution in redshift measured for the SN candidates changes according to the selected host galaxy and redshift estimate. Results.We measured the SN Ia rate, analyzing the impact of uncertainties due to photometric redshift, host-galaxy association and classification on the distribution in redshift of the starting sample. We find that we are missing 17% of the SN Ia, on average, with respect to the simulated sample. As 10% of the mismatch is due to the uncertainty on the photometric redshift alone (which also affects classification when used as a prior), we conclude that this parameter is the major source of uncertainty. We discuss possible reduction of the errors in the measurement of the SN Ia rate, including synergies with other surveys, which may help us to use the rate to discriminate different progenitor models.

Astronomy & Astrophysics↗
DOE OSTI2026

3D Deep Learning Joint Inversion of Active Seismic Full Waveform and Passive Seismic Traveltime Data for Reservoir Imaging and Uncertainty Quantification

Here, we present deep learning (DL) networks for three-dimensional (3D) joint inversion of active seismic full waveform and passive seismic traveltime data to image reservoirs and their properties and quantify imaging uncertainties. Active seismic full-waveform data can provide high-resolution monitoring images but are collected only intermittently because of their high acquisition cost. In contrast, passive seismic data can be gathered at relatively low cost between regular active surveys, although their imaging quality can be compromised by factors such as low signal-to-noise ratios and limited ray coverage of the target. Although these datasets are routinely acquired together at CO 2 storage sites, their combined inversion within a 3D DL framework has not been previously demonstrated. To our knowledge, this is the first study to address this gap, combining the strength of both data types. For efficient data storage and DL training with large 3D seismic datasets, we use a 3D data matrix in which a random number of passive seismic traveltime data are stored as parabolic envelopes using one-hot encoding and a 3D full-waveform data matrix in which multiple shot gathers are summed. Two network architectures are evaluated: a single-encoder U-Net for single-data type inversion and a dual-encoder U-Net for joint inversion of active and passive seismic data. We also evaluate the single-encoder U-Net for joint inversion by concatenating full-waveform data and traveltime data. We propose a systematic approach for selecting an optimal dropout rate that balances regularization during training and Monte Carlo dropout-based uncertainty quantification during prediction by examining the correlation coefficient between standard deviation and prediction error, along with the training misfit, across a range of dropout rates. 3D DL inversion experiments include five different network configurations, with evaluations under ideal, noisy and dropout-enabled conditions. Both model and data uncertainties are assessed, as well as their combined effects. Across all conditions, the networks consistently predict accurate CO 2 saturation models with low prediction errors, such as a structural similarity index of 0.993 and CO 2 difference of 1.1%. Uncertainty estimates show strong spatial correlation with prediction errors, confirming the effectiveness of the proposed dropout selection approach. The results demonstrate that our DL approach, utilizing compact data representations and appropriate uncertainty quantification, yields accurate subsurface images under various inversion conditions and provides valuable insights into the reliability of predictions.

Um, Evan Schankee [Lawrence Berkeley National Labo↗
DOE OSTI2024

Quantifying local and global mass balance errors in physics-informed neural networks

Physics-informed neural networks (PINN) have recently become attractive for solving partial differential equations (PDEs) that describe physics laws. By including PDE-based loss functions, physics laws such as mass balance are enforced softly in PINN. This paper investigates how mass balance constraints are satisfied when PINN is used to solve the resulting PDEs. We investigate PINN’s ability to solve the 1D saturated groundwater flow equations (diffusion equations) for homogeneous and heterogeneous media and evaluate the local and global mass balance errors. We compare the obtained PINN’s solution and associated mass balance errors against a two-point finite volume numerical method and the corresponding analytical solution. We also evaluate the accuracy of PINN in solving the 1D saturated groundwater flow equation with and without incorporating hydraulic heads as training data. We demonstrate that PINN’s local and global mass balance errors are significant compared to the finite volume approach. Tuning the PINN’s hyperparameters, such as the number of collocation points, training data, hidden layers, nodes, epochs, and learning rate, did not improve the solution accuracy or the mass balance errors compared to the finite volume solution. Mass balance errors could considerably challenge the utility of PINN in applications where ensuring compliance with physical and mathematical properties is crucial.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2026

Technical, economic, and load-following capabilities assessment of grid-connected geothermal and geothermal-solar hybrid systems

The technical and economic performance as well as the load-following capabilities of grid-connected geothermal hybrid systems were assessed in this work. The analyzed geothermal hybrid configuration is composed of a binary geothermal plant integrated with a concentrating solar-thermal system and underground thermal energy storage (UTES) through a primary heat exchanger. Physics-based models for the hybrid system for plant generation capacities of 1, 25, and 50 MW were developed from validated models for each subsystem. Also, an economic model was developed that accounts for different hybrid system capabilities, solar field sizes, and thermal storage duration. The advantage of the geothermal hybrid system was assessed by comparing the performance with the baseline benchmark geothermal plant with a similar configuration and generation capacity. It was found that hybridizing geothermal plants with concentrating solar and thermal energy storage not only improves the thermal efficiency by up to 8 percentage points when additional heat from the solar-UTES loop rises the evaporator temperatures from 70 to 125 °C, but also enhances the load-following capability for the geothermal plant, which can meet a typical residential load profile with a power rate of change 0.25 kW/s with an absolute error under 13 kW for a 1 MW plant. Other benefits of hybridization include resource preservation and a potential LCOE reduction of up to 56% for a 50 MW geothermal hybrid plant having a 50% solar share, a 1.4 solar multiple, and 24-h storage capacity. The results presented in this work demonstrate that hybridizing geothermal systems transforms them into a flexible and cost-effective solution for addressing the dynamic requirements of modern electric grids.

15 GEOTHERMAL ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2025

Demonstration of an Automated System for Vertical Profiles of Volatile Organic Compounds

Volatile organic compounds (VOCs) play important roles throughout the atmosphere, many of which are altitude dependent. This highlights the need for easily deployable devices to sample VOCs across different atmospheric layers. To address this, we present the design and initial application of a Time Resolved Automated Volatile organIc compounds Sampling system (TRAVIS). VOCs are collected on sorbent tubes, which are subsequently analyzed by a thermal desorption gas chromatography mass spectrometry pipeline. TRAVIS leverages a piezoelectric pump with an integrated pressure sensor for precise (0.1% flow rate relative standard deviation) and accurate (−3 ± 2% error in VOC quantitation) measurements. Via deployment on a tethered balloon system over an agricultural area, TRAVIS is used to show consistent vertically resolved VOC concentrations in a well-mixed (i.e., turbulent) atmosphere (e.g., 5% relative standard deviation for isoprene) and vertically dependent concentrations for a stratified atmosphere (e.g., prior to boundary layer development). Furthermore, we also show VOC information from an intermittent plume via both targeted and untargeted analysis, highlighting future applications for spurious events in agriculture, air quality monitoring, and environmental impact. Overall, the development of TRAVIS represents a lightweight, accurate, sensitive, and precise VOC sampling module for the scientific community.

Aerosols↗
DOE OSTI2024

WE-Validate: An Open-Source Framework For Wind Power Validation

Grid operators rely on historical weather time series at existing and planned wind power plants to make informed decisions when planning for a future power grid with very high penetration of renewable power. While synthetic wind power time series have been developed based on historical weather models, their validation with actual power production data remains complex due to variations in modeling practices and methodologies. This paper introduces the WE-Validate framework, originally designed for wind speed validation and now enhanced for wind power validation with a graphical user interface to support users with minimal programming experience. Validation of wind power with WE-Validate is based on robust metrics consisting of RMSE, centered RMSE, average bias, average percent bias, mean absolute error, mean absolute percent error, cross correlation, and calculation of ramping magnitude, rate, and duration. This paper showcases WE-Validate with validation of synthetically derived power for a wind plant in Washington state for one month in 2018. Validation of the synthetic power from two comparison data sets compared with observations shows both comparison series have strong correlation with observed across weekly and monthly aggregations while suffering from persistent negative bias. The suite of metrics within WE-Validate facilitates immediate insight into the utility of the comparison data sets through compression across multiple axes. This user-friendly, open-source tool can be extended beyond wind power, making it a valuable resource for system planners and operators in different domains.

Moncheur de Rieudotte, Malcolm P.↗
DOE OSTI2025

Deep Learning without Global Optimization by Random Fourier Neural Networks

Here we introduce a new training algorithm for deep neural networks that utilize random complex exponential activation functions. Our approach employs a Markov chain Monte Carlo sampling procedure to iteratively train network layers, avoiding global and gradient-based optimization while maintaining error control. It consistently attains the theoretical approximation rate for residual networks with complex exponential activation functions, determined by network complexity. Additionally, it enables efficient learning of multiscale and high-frequency features, producing interpretable parameter distributions. Despite using sinusoidal basis functions, we do not observe Gibbs phenomena in approximating discontinuous target functions.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2026

Updating PV and Battery Bill Savings Calculations for Net Billing: New Best Practices for Input Data and Uncertainty

Jurisdictions are increasingly adopting compensation structures for distributed PV and PV-battery systems that price exported energy lower than energy consumed onsite (net billing rates). Standard methods for calculating the bill savings from PV and PV-battery systems were developed for net metering structures, and applying these same methods to net billing structures (such as using Typical Meteorological Year weather with actual year load) introduces bias errors that underestimate PV-battery system bill savings by between 1.5\% and 9\%, depending on the utility rate. We assess the magnitude of these errors and compare them to other sources of uncertainty when estimating the bill savings from PV and PV-battery systems under more complex utility rates.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2026

A scalable variational method for estimating the latent infection-rate field of an outbreak

In this paper, we explore whether the infection-rate of a disease can serve as a robust monitoring variable in epidemiological surveillance algorithms. The infection-rate is dependent on population mixing patterns that do not vary erratically day-to-day; in contrast, daily case-counts used in contemporary surveillance algorithms are corrupted by reporting errors. The technical challenge lies in estimating the latent infection-rate from case-counts. Here we devise a Bayesian method to estimate the infection-rate across multiple adjoining areal units, and then use it, via an anomaly detector, to discern a change in epidemiological dynamics. We extend an existing model for estimating the infection-rate in an areal unit by incorporating a Markov random field model, so that we may estimate infection-rates across multiple areal units, while preserving spatial correlations observed in the epidemiological dynamics. To carry out the high-dimensional Bayesian inverse problem, we develop an implementation of mean-field variational inference specific to the infection model and integrate it with the random field model to incorporate correlations across counties. The method is tested on estimating the COVID-19 infection-rates across all 33 counties in New Mexico using data from the summer of 2020, and then employing them to detect the arrival of the Fall 2020 COVID-19 wave. We perform the detection using a temporal algorithm that is applied county-by-county. We also show how the infection-rate field can be used to cluster counties with similar epidemiological dynamics.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

Performance and Achievable Rates of the Gottesman-Kitaev-Preskill Code for Pure-Loss and Amplification Channels

Quantum error-correction codes protect information from realistic noisy channels and lie at the heart of quantum computation and communication tasks. Understanding the optimal performance and other information-theoretic properties, such as the achievable rates, of a given code is crucial, as these factors determine the fundamental limits imposed by the encoding in conjunction with the noise channel. Here, we use the transpose channel to analytically obtain the near-optimal performance of any Gottesman-Kitaev-Preskill (GKP) code under pure loss and pure amplification. We present rigorous connections between GKP code’s near-optimal performance and its dual lattice geometry and average input energy. With no energy constraint, we show that when |𝜏/(1−𝜏)| is an integer, specific families of GKP codes simultaneously achieve the loss and amplification capacity. 𝜏 is the transmissivity (gain) for loss (amplification). Our results establish GKP code as the first structured bosonic code family that achieves the capacity of loss and amplification.

Zheng, Guo [Univ. of Chicago, IL (United States)] ↗
DOE OSTI2026

Deep nonparametric estimation of operators between infinite dimensional spaces

Learning operators between infinitely dimensional spaces is an important learning task arising in machine learning, imaging science, mathematical modeling and simulations, etc. This paper studies the nonparametric estimation of Lipschitz operators using deep neural networks. Non-asymptotic upper bounds are derived for the generalization error of the empirical risk minimizer over a properly chosen network class. Under the assumption that the target operator exhibits a low dimensional structure, our error bounds decay as the training sample size increases, with an attractive fast rate depending on the intrinsic dimension in our estimation. Our assumptions cover most scenarios in real applications and our results give rise to fast rates by exploiting low dimensional structures of data in operator estimation. We also investigate the influence of network structures (e.g., network width, depth, and sparsity) on the generalization error of the neural network estimator and propose a general suggestion on the choice of network structures to maximize the learning efficiency quantitatively.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2024

Mitigative Strategies for Recovering From Large Language Model Trust Violations

In this study, we investigated strategies to address trust issues arising from errors in large language models (LLMs). The study examined the impact of confidence scores, system capability explanations, and user feedback on trust restoration post-error. 68 participants viewed the responses of an LLM to 20 general trivia questions, with an error introduced on the third trial. Each participant was presented with one mitigation strategy. Participants rated their overall trust in the model and the reliability of the answer. Results showed an immediate drop in trust after the error; however, there were no differences across the three strategies in trust recovery. All conditions had a logarithmic trend in trust recovery following error. Differences in overall trust were predicted by perceived reliability of the answer, suggesting that participants were evaluating results critically and using that to inform their trust in the model. Qualitative data supported this finding; participants expressed lasting distrust despite the LLM’s later accuracy. Results showcase the need to prioritize accuracy in LLM deployment, because early errors may irrevocably damage user trust calibration and later adoption.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2025

Three-Receiver Quantum Broadcast Channels: Classical Communication with Quantum Non-unique Decoding

In network communication, it is common in broadcasting scenarios for there to exist a hierarchy among receivers based on information they decode due, for example, to different physical conditions or premium subscriptions. This hierarchy may result in varied information quality, such as higher-quality video for certain receivers. This is modeled mathematically as a degraded message set, indicating a hierarchy between messages to be decoded by different receivers, where the default quality corresponds to a common message intended for all receivers, a higher quality is represented by a message for a smaller subset of receivers, and so forth. We extend these considerations to quantum communication, exploring three-receiver quantum broadcast channels with two- and three-degraded message sets. Our technical tool involves employing quantum non-unique decoding, a technique we develop by utilizing the simultaneous pinching method. Here, we construct one-shot codes for various scenarios and find achievable rate regions relying on various quantum Rényi mutual information error exponents. Our investigation includes a comprehensive study of pinching across tensor product spaces, presenting our findings as the asymptotic counterpart to our one-shot codes. By employing the non-unique decoding, we also establish a simpler proof to Marton’s inner bound for two-receiver quantum broadcast channels without the need for more involved techniques. Additionally, we derive no-go results and demonstrate their tightness in special cases.

Salek, Farzin [Technical University of Munich (Ger↗
DOE OSTI2024

Simulating nonlinear optical processes on a superconducting quantum device

Simulating plasma physics on quantum computers is difficult because most problems of interest are nonlinear, but quantum computers are not naturally suitable for nonlinear operations. In weakly nonlinear regimes, plasma problems can be modelled as wave–wave interactions. In this paper, we develop a quantization approach to convert nonlinear wave–wave interaction problems to Hamiltonian simulation problems. We demonstrate our approach using two qubits on a superconducting device. Unlike a photonic device, a superconducting device does not naturally have the desired interactions in its native Hamiltonian. Nevertheless, Hamiltonian simulations can still be performed by decomposing required unitary operations into native gates. To improve experimental results, we employ a range of error-mitigation techniques. Apart from readout error mitigation, we use randomized compilation to transform undiagnosed coherent errors into well-behaved stochastic Pauli channels. Moreover, to compensate for stochastic noise, we rescale exponentially decaying probability amplitudes using rates measured from cycle benchmarking. We carefully consider how different choices of product-formula algorithms affect the overall error and show how a trade-off can be made to best utilize limited quantum resources. This study provides an example of how plasma problems may be solved on near-term quantum computing platforms.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗
DOE OSTI2026

Rates of Sea‐Level Rise Are Highly Sensitive to Ice Viscosity Parameters in Model Benchmarks

Glacier flow plays a major role in current and future rates of globally averaged sea-level rise. The viscosity of glacial ice, controlling the rate of flow, decreases as stress increases and is highly sensitive to the value of the stress exponent, $n$, in the constitutive equation for viscous flow. Glaciologists and climate modelers almost exclusively assume $n=3$ when modeling ice flow and projecting sea-level rise through forward modeling. However, recent work suggests that $n\approx 4$ better fits observations, prompting the question: How sensitive are projections of sea-level rise to the value of $n$? We use an established community ice flow model and standard benchmark experiments designed as an idealized representation of Pine Island Glacier, West Antarctica. While initializing an $n=3$ model to match observations of an $n=4$ ice sheet is possible, we find that incorrectly assuming $n=3$ when in fact $n=4$ dramatically underestimates rates of sea-level rise. The scale of this error grows nonlinearly with the magnitude of the climate forcing, acting to increase projection uncertainties. Additionally, we find that models often account for this stress-dependent rheology mismatch during model initialization in a way that masks this rheological effect in the short term while leaving model outputs vulnerable to larger biases in longer-term projections. Initializations to observations of Pine Island Glacier display similar rheology-mismatch fingerprints to our idealized example.

climate sensitivity↗
DOE OSTI2026

Optimality of Gradient-MUSIC for Spectral Estimation

We introduce the Gradient-MUSIC algorithm for estimating the unknown frequencies and amplitudes of a nonharmonic signal from noisy time samples. While the classical MUSIC algorithm performs a computationally expensive search over a fine grid, Gradient-MUSIC is significantly more efficient and eliminates the need for discretization over a fine grid by using optimization techniques. It coarsely scans the 1D landscape to find initialization simultaneously for all frequencies followed by parallelizable local refinement via gradient descent. We also analyze its performance when the noise level is sufficiently small and the signal frequencies are separated by at least 8π/m, where π/m is the standard resolution of this problem. Even though the 1D landscape is nonconvex, we prove a global convergence result for Gradient-MUSIC: coarse scanning provably finds suitable initialization and gradient descent converges at a linear rate. In addition to convergence results, we also upper bound the error between the true signal frequencies and amplitudes with those found by Gradient-MUSIC. For example, if the noise has $\ell^\infty$ norm at most ϵ, then the frequencies and amplitudes are recovered up to error at most Cϵ/m and Cϵ respectively, which are minimax optimal in m and ϵ. Our theory can also handle stochastic noise with performance guarantees under nonstationary independent Gaussian noise. Our main approach is a comprehensive geometric analysis of the landscape, a perspective that has not been explored before.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗