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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2023

The Neutron Mean Life and Big Bang Nucleosynthesis

We explore the effect of neutron lifetime and its uncertainty on standard big bang nucleosynthesis (BBN). BBN describes the cosmic production of the light nuclides, 1H, D, 3H+3He, 4He, and 7Li+7Be, in the first minutes of cosmic time. The neutron mean life τn has two roles in modern BBN calculations: (1) it normalizes the matrix element for weak n↔p interconversions, and (2) it sets the rate of free neutron decay after the weak interactions freeze-out. We review the history of the interplay between τn measurements and BBN, and present a study of the sensitivity of the light element abundances to the modern neutron lifetime measurements. We find that τn uncertainties dominate the predicted 4He error budget, but these theory errors remain smaller than the uncertainties in 4He observations, even with the dispersion in recent neutron lifetime measurements. For the other light element predictions, τn contributes negligibly to their error budget. Turning the problem around, we combine present BBN and cosmic microwave background (CMB) determinations of the cosmic baryon density to predict a “cosmologically preferred” mean life of τn(BBN+CMB)=870±16s, which is consistent with experimental mean life determinations. We show that if future astronomical and cosmological helium observations can reach an uncertainty of σobs(Yp)=0.001 in the 4He mass fraction Yp, this could begin to discriminate between the mean life determinations.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗
DOE OSTI2021

Updates to the Regional Seismic Travel Time (RSTT) Model: 2. Path-dependent Travel-time Uncertainty

Abstract The regional seismic travel time (RSTT) model and software were developed to improve travel-time prediction accuracy by accounting for three-dimensional crust and upper mantle structure. Travel-time uncertainty estimates are used in the process of associating seismic phases to events and to accurately calculate location uncertainty bounds (i.e. event location error ellipses). We improve on the current distance-dependent uncertainty parameterization for RSTT using a random effects model to estimate slowness (inverse velocity) uncertainty as a mean squared error for each model parameter. The random effects model separates the error between observed slowness and model predicted slowness into bias and random components. The path-specific travel-time uncertainty is calculated by integrating these mean squared errors along a seismic-phase ray path. We demonstrate that event location error ellipses computed for a 90% coverage ellipse metric (used by the Comprehensive Nuclear-Test-Ban Treaty Organization International Data Centre (IDC)), and using the path-specific travel-time uncertainty approach, are more representative (median 82.5% ellipse percentage) of true location error than error ellipses computed using distance-dependent travel-time uncertainties (median 70.1%). We also demonstrate measurable improvement in location uncertainties using the RSTT method compared to the current station correction approach used at the IDC (median 74.3% coverage ellipse).

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2026

Taylor approximation variance reduction for approximation errors in PDE-constrained Bayesian inverse problems

In numerous applications, surrogate models are used as a replacement for accurate parameter-to-observable mappings when solving large-scale inverse problems governed by partial differential equations (PDEs). The surrogate model may be a computationally cheaper alternative to the accurate parameter-to-observable mappings and/or may ignore additional unknowns or sources of uncertainty. The Bayesian approximation error (BAE) approach provides a means to account for the induced uncertainties and approximation errors, i.e. the errors between the accurate parameter-to-observable mapping and the surrogate. The statistics of these errors are, however, in general unknown a priori, and are thus calculated using Monte Carlo sampling. Although the sampling is typically carried out offline, i.e. before considering the data, the process can still represent a computational bottleneck. In this work, we develop a scalable computational approach for reducing the costs associated with the sampling stage of the BAE approach. Specifically, we consider the Taylor expansion of the accurate and surrogate forward models with respect to the uncertain parameter fields either as a control variate for variance reduction or as a means to directly and efficiently approximate the mean and covariance of the approximation errors. We propose efficient methods for evaluating the expressions for the mean and covariance of the Taylor approximations based on linear(-ized) PDE solves. Furthermore, the proposed approach is independent of the dimension of the uncertain parameter, depending instead on the intrinsic dimension of the data, ensuring scalability to high-dimensional problems. The potential benefits of the proposed approach are demonstrated for two high-dimensional inverse problems governed by PDE examples, namely for the estimation of a distributed Robin boundary coefficient in a linear diffusion problem, and for a coefficient estimation problem governed by a nonlinear diffusion problem.

Bayesian approximation error↗
DOE OSTI2021

Pressure-Driven Fiber-Optic Sensor for Online Corrosion Monitoring

For many industrial applications, corrosion is a life-limiting phenomenon and therefore requires careful consideration and rigorous experimental testing before structural materials can be reliably deployed, particularly in harsh chemical environments. The traditional approach to measuring corrosion requires exposing many samples to the intended environment and then extracting them individually at discrete intervals for postexposure characterization. This approach does not provide a high degree of temporal resolution, nor does it provide any real-time information regarding dynamic changes in corrosion rates. Additionally, developing an online corrosion monitor capable of surviving harsh chemical environments could provide valuable information regarding the structural health of components and changing process conditions that could accelerate corrosion. To this end, a corrosion sensor was developed based on a pressure-driven Fabry-Pérot cavity (FPC). This sensor uses a pressure control system to internally pressurize the FPC formed between the sensor’s housing and a metal-embedded singlemode optical fiber. Simultaneous measurement of the change in FPC length using low-coherence interferometry and the applied pressure enables the calculation of the relative changes in the sensor’s diaphragm thickness due to corrosion on its outer surface. Measurements were made in situ while actively corroding the sensor and were validated against surveillance specimens that were corroded simultaneously. The uncertainties in the measured corrosion were analyzed using error propagation of the uncertainties in the measured pressures and displacements and were found to be <1% of the initial diaphragm thickness.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2020

Calibration and Uncertainty Estimation Using the Ensemble Kalman Filter with a Large Subsurface Flow and Transport Model - 20321

At routinely monitored groundwater contamination sites, periodically measured environmental conditions such as groundwater levels and contaminant concentrations are used to inform and confirm a conceptual site model (CSM) and guide the development and calibration of a numerical groundwater flow and transport model. The calibration of groundwater flow and transport models after each measurement (sampling) event can illuminate deficiencies in a CSM, identify areas where additional monitoring is warranted, and predict the behavior of the system to guide decision making. However, manual and automated (e.g. PEST) model calibration tools can be time-consuming and computationally expensive to implement after each sampling event. Perhaps as a result, such calibration tools generally utilize all available monitoring data simultaneously rather than sequentially assimilating monitoring data one sampling event at a time as the results from sampling become available. A more real-time data assimilation approach may reduce parameter uncertainty, quantify the value of additional monitoring data, and produce a usable model more quickly and with less effort. To mitigate the potential time-consuming aspects of manual and widely applied automated calibration techniques, a data assimilation algorithm called the ensemble Kalman filter (EnKF) was evaluated as a relatively efficient method of model calibration and uncertainty assessment via the sequential integration of monitoring data into a model. The EnKF was able to successfully and efficiently assimilate monitoring and modeling data to calibrate a complex flow and transport model at a real-world site with significant subsurface heterogeneity, uncertainty, and 12 years of monitoring data (over 4,000 individual measurements of groundwater levels and over 2,500 measurements of contaminant concentrations). Starting with an uncalibrated model data from annual sampling events were sequentially assimilated, and the resultant predication errors and estimated parameter uncertainties were tracked. After all monitoring data were assimilated, both flow and transport residuals at the end of the EnKF process were comparable to those produced via a concurrent PEST calibration effort but required fewer model simulations. Both uncertainty and prediction errors decreased over time. In a real-time application, the adequacy of the model could be assessed after each sampling event. The benefits of such a real-time approach to utilizing monitoring data include reduced costs (in the form of model updates or site characterization efforts), early flagging of possible errors in the CSM, and a reduced risk of overfitting and corresponding increased confidence in model predictions. This tool may be particularly useful compared to other calibration techniques (e.g. manual, PEST) when model runtimes are long, calibration parameters are many, or parameter uncertainty is large. (authors)

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗
DOE OSTI2023

Stochastic modeling and statistical calibration with model error and scarce data

This paper introduces a procedure to assess the predictive accuracy of stochastic models subject to model error and sparse data. Model error is introduced as uncertainty on the coefficients of appropriate polynomial chaos expansions (PCE). The error associated with finite sample size allows us to conceive of these coefficients as statistics of the data that we describe as random variables whose influence on output quantities of interest is evaluated through the extended polynomial chaos expansion (EPCE). A Bayesian data assimilation scheme is introduced to update these expansions by considering the resulting nested chaos expansion as a hierarchical probabilistic model. Stochastic models of quantities of interest (QoI) are thus constructed and efficiently evaluated. Here, the Metropolis–Hastings Markov chain Monte Carlo procedure is used to sample the posterior. Two illustrative analytical and numerical problems are used to demonstrate the proposed approach.

Bayesian inference↗
DOE OSTI2020

Bottom-up and Top-Down Uncertainty Quantification for Measurements

Several recent papers address improved uncertainty quantification (UQ) for measurements used in nuclear safeguards. This paper reviews progress and presents new results for bottom-up (first principles) and top-down (empirical) UQ for safeguards, where the main quantitative measure of uncertainty is the total measurement error standard deviation (SD), which includes both random and systematic error components. The five main UQ topics addressed here include: (1) impact of making data-driven choices in SD estimation; (2) use of approximate Bayesian computation (ABC) for both bottom-up and top-down UQ; (3) computational calibration; (4) revisions to the guide to the expression of uncertainty in measurement (GUM), and (5) critique of a recently-suggested “Unified Theory of Measurement Errors and Uncertainties.”

98 NUCLEAR DISARMAMENT, SAFEGUARDS, AND PHYSICAL P↗
DOE OSTI2021

Rigorous constraints on three-nucleon forces in chiral effective field theory from fast and accurate calculations of few-body observables

We explore the constraints on the three-nucleon force (3NF) of chiral effective field theory (χ EFT) that are provided by bound-state observables in the A = 3 and A = 4 sectors. Our statistically rigorous analysis incorporates experimental error, computational method uncertainty, and the uncertainty due to truncation of the χ EFT expansion at next-to-next-to-leading order. A consistent solution for the 3 H binding energy, the 4 He binding energy and radius, and the 3 H β-decay rate can only be obtained if χ EFT truncation errors are included in the analysis. Here, the β-decay rate is the only one of these that yields a nondegenerate constraint on the 3NF low-energy constants, which makes it crucial for the parameter estimation. We use eigenvector continuation for fast and accurate emulation of no-core shell model calculations of the few-nucleon observables. This facilitates sampling of the posterior probability distribution, allowing us to also determine the distributions of the parameters that quantify the truncation error. We find a χ EFT expansion parameter of Q = 0.33 ± 0.06 for these observables.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2023

Combining cosmic shear data with correlated photo-z uncertainties: constraints from DESY1 and HSC-DR1

An accurate calibration of the source redshift distribution p(z) is a key aspect in the analysis of cosmic shear data. This, one way or another, requires the use of spectroscopic or high-quality photometric samples. However, the difficulty to obtain colour-complete spectroscopic samples matching the depth of weak lensing catalogs means that the analyses of different cosmic shear datasets often use the same samples for redshift calibration. This introduces a source of statistical and systematic uncertainty that is highly correlated across different weak lensing datasets, and which must be accurately characterised and propagated in order to obtain robust cosmological constraints from their combination. In this paper we introduce a method to quantify and propagate the uncertainties on the source redshift distribution in two different surveys sharing the same calibrating sample. The method is based on an approximate analytical marginalisation of the p(z) statistical uncertainties and the correlated marginalisation of residual systematics. We apply this method to the combined analysis of cosmic shear data from the DESY1 data release and the HSC-DR1 data, using the COSMOS 30-band catalog as a common redshift calibration sample. We find that, although there is significant correlation in the uncertainties on the redshift distributions of both samples, this does not change the final constraints on cosmological parameters significantly. The same is true also for the impact of residual systematic uncertainties from the errors in the COSMOS 30-band photometric redshifts. Additionally, we show that these effects will still be negligible in Stage-IV datasets. Finally, the combination of DESY1 and HSC-DR1 allows us to constrain the "clumpiness" parameter to S 8 = ${0.768}_{-0.017}^{+0.021}$. This corresponds to a ~√(2) improvement in uncertainties with respect to either DES or HSC alone.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2022

Verification and Validation Activities for the Multi-Fidelity Toolkit

The Multi-Fidelity Toolkit (MFTK) is a simulation tool being developed at Sandia National Laboratories for aerodynamic predictions of compressible flows over a range of physics fidelities and computational speeds. These models include the Reynolds-Averaged-Navier-Stokes (RANS) equations, the Euler equations, and modified Newtonian aerodynamics (MNA) equations, and they can be invoked independently or coupled with hierarchical Kriging to interpolate between high-fidelity simulations using lower-fidelity data. However, as with any new simulation capability, verification and validation are necessary to gather credibility evidence. This work describes formal code- and solution-verification activities as well as model validation with uncertainty considerations. Code verification is performed on the MNA model by comparing with an analytical solution for flat-plate and inclined-plate geometries. Solution-verification activities include grid-refinement studies of HIFiRE-1 wind tunnel measurements, which are used for validation, for all model fidelities. A thorough treatment of the validation comparison with prediction error and validation uncertainty is also presented.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2022

Using probabilistic solar power forecasts to inform flexible ramp product procurement for the California ISO

How can independent system operators (ISOs) take advantage of probabilistic solar forecasts to lower generation costs and improve reliability of power systems? We discuss one three-step approach for doing so, focusing on how such forecasts might help the California Independent System Operator (CAISO) prepare unexpected net load ramps, where net load equals gross demand minus wind and solar production. First, we enhance an existing solar forecasting system to provide well-calibrated hours-ahead probabilistic forecasts. We then relate the degree of uncertainty reflected in the forecasted prediction intervals (independent variables) to error distributions for net load ramp forecasts for the CAISO real-time market (dependent variable) using machine learning and quantile regression. Projected ramp forecast errors conditioned on solar uncertainty are translated into flexible ramp requirements that therefore reflect real-time meteorological and solar conditions, improving on typical ISO procedures. Detailed descriptions are provided on the quantile regression and kth-nearest neighbor categorization methods for accomplishing that translation. Finally, a multiple time-scale look-ahead market simulation model is applied to a 118-bus IEEE Reliability Test System, modified to represent the CAISO generation mix and demand distributions. The model runs quantify how solar-conditioned ramp requirements can, first, decrease operating costs by reducing requirements compared to often conservative unconditional methods and, second, decrease generation scarcity events and consequently improve reliability by increasing flexibility requirements at times when unconditional forecast-based requirements understate actual ramp uncertainty. Solar-conditioned ramp requirements are found to reduce generation operating costs by about 2% for the test system (which would be equivalent to over $\$100$ million per year for a CAISO-size system).

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2026

A dendritic strontium river isoscape for fisheries applications in the Sacramento River basin, California, USA

Objective Understanding the origins and movements of fish is fundamental to effective conservation and fisheries management. Strontium isotope ratios ( 87 Sr/ 86 Sr) in otoliths provide a powerful tracer of natal origin and migratory pathways. However, existing 87 Sr/ 86 Sr isoscapes for the Sacramento River basin, an ecosystem that supports ecologically and economically important salmon populations, rely on discrete classification approaches that overlook unsampled habitats and do not incorporate spatial uncertainty. Our objective was to develop a continuous, network-explicit 87 Sr/ 86 Sr isoscape with quantified uncertainty to fill in data gaps and enable probabilistic assignments of fish origin and movement. Methods We used river water 87 Sr/ 86 Sr data from 106 sites (1997–2021) to develop spatial stream network models that use dendritic connectivity and watershed characteristics (lithology, bedrock age, and land cover) to predict river water 87 Sr/ 86 Sr throughout the basin. Models were fitted using maximum and restricted likelihood and were evaluated via Akaike’s information criterion and leave-one-out cross validation. We produced both historical (pre-dam) and present-day (below-dam) isoscapes, delineated uncertainty-informed isotopic ranges using k -means clustering, and applied a proof-of-concept Bayesian assignment to estimate natal origins and early rearing habitats for two endangered winter-run Chinook Salmon Oncorhynchus tshawytscha. Results Cross validation indicated strong performance of the 87 Sr/ 86 Sr model (leave-one-out cross validation: R 2 = 0.91; root mean square error = 0.0005). Uncertainty-informed clustering identified 19 isotopic “suites” (reaches with indistinguishable 87 Sr/ 86 Sr values) in present-day anadromous habitats and 25 suites in the historical network. Example natal and early rearing assignments included predictions that challenged expectations for juvenile salmon migration based on predicted river 87 Sr/ 86 Sr compositions. Conclusions This study developed a continuous, network-explicit 87 Sr/ 86 Sr isoscape that integrates existing river data to predict 87 Sr/ 86 Sr in unsampled reaches and the likely achievable range and resolution of otolith-based origin and life history inference. The resulting river isoscape provides a valuable tool to predict salmon movements and identify habitats supporting their survival and growth that otherwise might remain undetected. Coupling these predictions with complementary approaches that ground-truth juvenile presence (e.g., targeted fish surveys) represents an important step toward science-informed restoration and management of critical habitats throughout the Sacramento River basin.

Environmental sciences↗
DOE OSTI2020

Unrecognized Sources of Uncertainties ( USU ) in Experimental Nuclear Data

Evaluated nuclear data uncertainties reported in the literature or archived in data libraries are often perceived as unrealistic, most often because they are thought to be too small. The impact of this issue in applied nuclear science has been discussed widely in recent years. Commonly suggested causes are: poor estimates of specific error components, neglect of uncertainty correlations, and overlooked known error sources. However, instances have been reported where very careful, objective assessments of all known error sources have been made with realistic error magnitudes and correlations provided, yet the resulting evaluated uncertainties still appear to be inconsistent with observed scatter of predicted mean values. These discrepancies might be attributed to significant unrecognized sources of uncertainty ( USU ) that limit the accuracy to which these physical quantities can be determined. The objective of our work reported herein has been to develop qualitative and quantitative procedures for revealing and including USU estimates in nuclear data evaluations involving experimental input data. This paper identifies several specific clues that can be explored by evaluators in identifying the existence of USU . It then describes numerical procedures we have introduced to generate quantitative estimates of USU magnitudes. Key requirements for these procedures to be viable are that sufficient numbers of data points be available, for statistical reasons, and that additional supporting information about the measurements be provided by the experimenters. Several realistic examples are described here to illustrate these procedures and demonstrate their outcomes and limitations. Our work strongly supports the view that USU is an important issue in nuclear data evaluation, with significant consequences for applications, and that this topic warrants further investigation by the nuclear science community.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2024

Impact of Systematic Modeling Uncertainties on Kilonova Property Estimation

The precise atomic structure and therefore the wavelength-dependent opacities of lanthanides are highly uncertain. This uncertainty introduces systematic errors in modeling transients like kilonovae and estimating key properties such as mass, characteristic velocity, and heavy metal content. Here, we quantify how atomic data from across the literature as well as choices of thermalization efficiency of r-process radioactive decay heating impact the light curve and spectra of kilonovae. Specifically, we analyze the spectra of a grid of models produced by the radiative transfer code Sedona that span the expected range of kilonova properties to identify regions with the highest systematic uncertainty. Our findings indicate that differences in atomic data have a substantial impact on estimates of lanthanide mass fraction, spanning approximately 1 order of magnitude for lanthanide-rich ejecta, and demonstrate the difficulty in precisely measuring the lanthanide fraction in lanthanide-poor ejecta. Mass estimates vary typically by 25%–40% for differing atomic data. Similarly, the choice of thermalization efficiency can affect mass estimates by 20%–50%. Observational properties such as color and decay rate are highly model dependent. Velocity estimation, when fitting solely based on the light curve, can have a typical error of ∼100%. Atomic data of light r-process elements can strongly affect blue emission. Even for well-observed events like GW170817, the total lanthanide production estimated using different atomic data sets can vary by a factor of ∼6.

Gravitational wave sources↗
DOE OSTI2021

A fast multi-fidelity method with uncertainty quantification for complex data correlations: Application to vortex-induced vibrations of marine risers

Here we develop a fast multi-fidelity modeling method for very complex correlations between high- and low-fidelity data by working in modal space to extract the proper correlation function. We apply this method to infer the amplitude of motion of a flexible marine riser in cross-flow, subject to vortex-induced vibrations (VIV). VIV are driven by an absolute instability in the flow, which imposes a frequency (Strouhal) law that requires a matching with the impedance of the structure; this matching is easily achieved because of the rapid parametric variation of the added mass force. As a result, the wavenumber of the riser spatial response is within narrow bands of uncertainty. Hence, an error in wavenumber prediction can cause significant phase-related errors in the shape of the amplitude of response along the riser, rendering correlation between low- and high-fidelity data very complex. Working in modal space as outlined herein, dense data from low-fidelity data, provided by the semi-empirical computer code VIVA, can correlate in modal space with few high-fidelity data, obtained from experiments or fully-resolved CFD simulations, to correct both phase and amplitude and provide predictions that agree very well overall with the correct shape of the amplitude response. We also quantify the uncertainty in the prediction using Bayesian modeling and exploit this uncertainty to formulate an active learning strategy for the best possible location of the sensors providing the high fidelity measurements.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2020

Cross-correlation of Planck CMB lensing with DESI-like LRGs

ABSTRACT Cross-correlations between the lensing of the cosmic microwave background (CMB) and other tracers of large-scale structure provide a unique way to reconstruct the growth of dark matter, break degeneracies between cosmology and galaxy physics, and test theories of modified gravity. We detect a cross-correlation between Dark Energy Spectroscopic Instrument (DESI)-like luminous red galaxies (LRGs) selected from DECam Legacy Survey imaging and CMB lensing maps reconstructed with the Planck satellite at a significance of S/N = 27.2 over scales ℓmin = 30, ℓmax = 1000. To correct for magnification bias, we determine the slope of the LRG cumulative magnitude function at the faint limit as s = 0.999 ± 0.015, and find corresponding corrections of the order of a few per cent for $C^{\kappa g}_{\ell }, C^{gg}_{\ell }$ across the scales of interest. We fit the large-scale galaxy bias at the effective redshift of the cross-correlation zeff ≈ 0.68 using two different bias evolution agnostic models: a HaloFit times linear bias model where the bias evolution is folded into the clustering-based estimation of the redshift kernel, and a Lagrangian perturbation theory model of the clustering evaluated at zeff. We also determine the error on the bias from uncertainty in the redshift distribution; within this error, the two methods show excellent agreement with each other and with DESI survey expectations.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2020

Quasi-stationary Planetary Scale Waves in Modern Climate Models

We evaluate climate model simulations of geopotential height at the largest space-time scales, considering the first Fourier components (in longitude) of long-term climatological means. Quasi-stationary planetary scale waves emerge from this analysis. Variations of these waves are important components of climate change, for example associated with regional drought. Systematic examination of their long-term climatology provides context for understanding their evolution in time. We compare four reanalysis datasets with “historical runs” from the latest version of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP) and find general agreement, but we also identify model errors outside the range of both observational uncertainty and the uncertainty implied by interannual variability. Errors in wave phase have possible implications for climate model projections of regional climate and of shifting weather patterns. One model in the set we examine, originally created nearly 20 years before the others, exhibits noticeably greater errors.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2020

Improved Parametric Models for Explosion Pressure Signals Derived From Large Datasets

Accurate recording and characterization of explosion-induced pressure signals are key components of the forensic analysis of explosion events in the atmosphere. Parametric overpressure models based on several key waveform features (peak overpressure, positive pulse duration, and impulse) are widely used to estimate explosion energy in terms of trinitrotoluene equivalent yield. However, those models are often developed by a limited dataset, including only a few events or recordings at relatively short propagation distances. Here, we develop empirical waveform-parameter models based on a regression analysis of a large set of data curated from four chemical explosion experiments including 16 detonations. We measured peak overpressure and impulse for positive and negative phases from 1000 pressure signals recorded at local ranges (<20 km) with scaled distance up to 8000 m/kg 1/3 . Additionally, the measured waveform parameters showed large variation with respect to observing distances indicating the effects of atmospheric propagation. In this study, a second-order polynomial model was used in a least-squares regression to account for those propagation effects and to improve data fitting. In addition to model parameters for waveform features, we also determined range-dependent model uncertainties based on data variance. The model uncertainty represents the prediction error of our models and can be critical to evaluating the uncertainty of yield estimate.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗