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Validation of Surface Skin Temperature and Moisture Profiles Using Satellite Data

New validation techniques and metrics using satellite data have been developed to evaluate the quality of model-based estimates of surface skin temperature (Tg) and moisture profiles (q). The satellite data consist of clear sky outgoing long-wave radiation (CLR), broadband radiances from 8 to 12 mu (RadWn), brightness temperature centered around 10.8 mu (Tbb), and total precipitable water (TPW) from microwave radiometry. We show that CLR can be used to diagnose Tg. Furthermore, by using a combination of CLR and RadWn from CERES-TRMM measurements and TPW from SSM/I, we are able to identify errors in the moisture profile. Finally, three-hourly Tbb from the International Satellite Cloud Climatology Project can be used to evaluate the amplitude and diurnal variation of Tg. For purpose of illustration, Tg and q are evaluated from runs with an early version of the Goddard Earth Observing System Data Assimilation System (GEOS-2). It is found that, in general, Tg is too cold in the winter hemisphere and q is too wet in the upper atmosphere. In order to address these deficiencies, several improvements have been implemented into GEOS-2, including a Land-Surface-Model, a Moist Turbulence Scheme, and the assimilation of new TOVS retrievals. Preliminary results indicate positive impacts from each of these implementations.

Wu, Man Li C.↗

A recent Cleanroom success story: The Redwing project

Redwing is the largest completed Cleanroom software engineering project in IBM, both in terms of lines of code and project staffing. The product provides a decision-support facility that utilizes artificial intelligence (AI) technology for predicting and preventing complex operating problems in an MVS environment. The project used the Cleanroom process for development and realized a defect rate of 2.6 errors/KLOC, measured from first execution. This represents the total amount of errors that were found in testing and installation at three field test sites. Development productivity was 486 LOC/PM, which included all development labor expended in design specification through completion of incremental testing. In short, the Redwing team produced a complex systems software product with an extraordinarily low error rate, while maintaining high productivity. All of this was accomplished by a project team using Cleanroom for the first time. An 'introductory implementation' of Cleanroom was defined and used on Redwing. This paper describes the quality and productivity results, the Redwing project, and how Cleanroom was implemented.

Hausler, Philip A.↗

Ozone Profiles in the Baltimore-Washington Region (2006-2011): Satellite Comparisons and DISCOVER-AQ Observations

Much progress has been made in creating satellite products for tracking the pollutants ozone and NO2 in the troposphere. Yet, in mid-latitude regions where meteorological interactions with pollutants are complex, accuracy can be difficult to achieve, largely due to persistent layering of some constituents. We characterize the layering of ozone soundings and related species measured from aircraft over two ground sites in suburban Washington, DC (Beltsville, MD, 39.05N; 76.9W) and Baltimore (Edgewood, MD, 39.4N; 76.3W) during the July 2011 DISCOVER-AQ (Deriving Information on Surface Conditions from Column and Vertically Resolved Observations Relevant to Air Quality) experiment. First, we compare column-ozone amounts from the Beltsville and Edgewood sondes with data from overpassing satellites. Second, processes influencing ozone profile structure are analyzed using Laminar Identification and tracers: sonde water vapor, aircraft CO and NOy. Third, Beltsville ozone profiles and meteorological influences in July 2011 are compared to those from the summers of 2006-2010. Sonde-satellite offsets in total ozone during July 2011 at Edgewood and Beltsville, compared to the Ozone Monitoring Instrument (OMI), were 3 percent mean absolute error, not statistically significant. The disagreement between an OMIMicrowave Limb Sounder-based tropospheric ozone column and the sonde averaged 10 percent at both sites, with the sonde usually greater than the satellite. Laminar Identification (LID), that distinguishes ozone segments influenced by convective and advective transport, reveals that on days when both stations launched ozonesondes, vertical mixing was stronger at Edgewood. Approximately half the lower free troposphere sonde profiles have very dry laminae, with coincident aircraft spirals displaying low CO (80-110 ppbv), suggesting stratospheric influence. Ozone budgets at Beltsville in July 2011, determined with LID, as well as standard meteorological indicators, resemble those of 4 of the previous 5 summers. The penetration of stratospheric air throughout the troposphere appears to be typical for summer conditions in the Baltimore-Washington region.

satellite validation↗

ACIX-Aqua: A Global Assessment of Atmospheric Correction Methods for Landsat-8 and Sentinel-2 Over Lakes, Rivers, and Coastal Waters

Atmospheric correction over inland and coastal waters is one of the major remaining challenges in aquatic remote sensing, often hindering the quantitative retrieval of biogeochemical variables and analysis of their spatial and temporal variability within aquatic environments. The Atmospheric Correction Intercomparison Exercise (ACIX-Aqua), a joint NASA – ESA activity, was initiated to enable a thorough evaluation of eight state-of-the-art atmospheric correction (AC) processors available for Landsat-8 and Sentinel-2 data processing. Over 1000 radiometric matchups from both freshwaters (rivers, lakes, reservoirs) and coastal waters were utilized to examine the quality of derived aquatic reflectances (ρ̂w). This dataset originated from two sources: Data gathered from the international scientific community (henceforth called Community Validation Database, CVD), which captured predominantly inland water observations, and the Ocean Color component of AERONET measurements (AERONET-OC), representing primarily coastal ocean environments. This volume of data permitted the evaluation of the AC processors individually (using all the matchups) and comparatively (across seven different Optical Water Types, OWTs) using common matchups. We found that the performance of the AC processors differed for CVD and AERONET-OC matchups, likely reflecting inherent variability in aquatic and atmospheric properties between the two datasets. For the former, the median errors in ρ̂w560 and ρ̂w664 were found to range from 20 to 30% for best-performing processors. Using the AERONET-OC matchups, our performance assessments showed that median errors within the 15–30% range in these spectral bands may be achieved. The largest uncertainties were associated with the blue bands (25 to 60%) for best-performing processors considering both CVD and AERONET-OC assessments. We further assessed uncertainty propagation to the downstream products such as near-surface concentration of chlorophyll-a (Chla) and Total Suspended Solids (TSS). Using satellite matchups from the CVD along with in situ Chla and TSS, we found that 20–30% uncertainties in ρ̂w490≤λ≤743nm yielded 25–70% uncertainties in derived Chla and TSS products for top-performing AC processors. We summarize our results using performance matrices guiding the satellite user community through the OWT-specific relative performance of AC processors. Our analysis stresses the need for better representation of aerosols, particularly absorbing ones, and improvements in corrections for sky- (or sun-) glint and adjacency effects, in order to achieve higher quality downstream products in freshwater and coastal ecosystems.

Nima Pahlevan↗

Pixelation Effects in Weak Lensing

Weak gravitational lensing can be used to investigate both dark matter and dark energy but requires accurate measurements of the shapes of faint, distant galaxies. Such measurements are hindered by the finite resolution and pixel scale of digital cameras. We investigate the optimum choice of pixel scale for a space-based mission, using the engineering model and survey strategy of the proposed Supernova Acceleration Probe as a baseline. We do this by simulating realistic astronomical images containing a known input shear signal and then attempting to recover the signal using the Rhodes, Refregier, and Groth algorithm. We find that the quality of shear measurement is always improved by smaller pixels. However, in practice, telescopes are usually limited to a finite number of pixels and operational life span, so the total area of a survey increases with pixel size. We therefore fix the survey lifetime and the number of pixels in the focal plane while varying the pixel scale, thereby effectively varying the survey size. In a pure trade-off for image resolution versus survey area, we find that measurements of the matter power spectrum would have minimum statistical error with a pixel scale of 0.09' for a 0.14' FWHM point-spread function (PSF). The pixel scale could be increased to ~0.16' if images dithered by exactly half-pixel offsets were always available. Some of our results do depend on our adopted shape measurement method and should be regarded as an upper limit: future pipelines may require smaller pixels to overcome systematic floors not yet accessible, and, in certain circumstances, measuring the shape of the PSF might be more difficult than those of galaxies. However, the relative trends in our analysis are robust, especially those of the surface density of resolved galaxies. Our approach thus provides a snapshot of potential in available technology, and a practical counterpart to analytic studies of pixelation, which necessarily assume an idealized shape measurement method.

gravitational lensing↗

Co-Firing Switchgrass and Waste Coal in A Power Plant: A Techno-Economic and Life Cycle Evaluation for The Ohio River Valley (SWITCH) (Final Technical Report for Ohio State/FE0032204)

Abandoned coal mine lands (AMLs) represent one of the most persistent environmental challenges in the United States. Prior to the enactment of the Surface Mining Control and Reclamation Act (SMCRA) in 1977, coal mining operations were not legally required to reclaim disturbed lands, leaving behind approximately 500,000 AML sites nationwide. These sites pose severe environmental and health risks, including acid mine drainage, soil and water contamination, and spontaneous combustion of waste coal piles. Millions of Americans live within one mile of these AMLs, underscoring the urgency of remediation. Traditional reclamation practices, such as planting cool-season grasses, often fail to fully restore ecological function or leverage the economic potential of these lands. This project addressed these challenges by developing integrated strategies for resource recovery, land reclamation, and sustainable energy production. This project evaluated an integrated strategy to convert this liability into an opportunity by recovering waste coal and co-firing it with switchgrass (Panicum virgatum L.) cultivated on reclaimed or marginal AML areas in existing coal-fired power plants. Switchgrass not only provides a renewable feedstock but also aids in land reclamation and carbon sequestration. 1) Remote Sensing and Machine Learning for Waste Coal Identification Using Sentinel-2 satellite imagery and supervised classification, we applied four machine learning models to detect historical waste coal piles. Random Forest achieved the highest accuracy (precision: 86%, recall: 77%). Time-series analysis revealed gradual vegetation recovery since 1986, indicating natural reclamation processes in historical sites, while active mining areas showed ongoing disturbance. This workflow enables scalable monitoring and prioritization of reclamation efforts. 2) UAS-Based Stockpile Volume Estimation To quantify recoverable waste coal, we evaluated Unmanned Aerial Systems (UAS) equipped with Light Detection and Ranging (LiDAR) and multispectral sensors. Structure-from-Motion (SfM) photogrammetry combined with interpolated Digital Terrain Models (DTMs) achieved strong agreement with LiDAR reference volumes (Root Mean Square Error (RMSE) ≈147 m 3 , Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE) ≈2%). Sensitivity analysis confirmed that spatial resolution significantly influences accuracy, emphasizing the need for high-resolution data for precise volume estimation. This approach offers a scalable, cost-effective, and accurate alternative to conventional ground-based surveys. 3) Switchgrass Cultivation for Bioenergy and Water Quality Improvement We assessed the hydrological and water quality impacts of converting AMLs to switchgrass production areas using the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT). Results showed that converting 10% of the watershed area into the switchgrass production zone reduced streamflow by 3.1%, total suspended solids by 18.1%, total nitrogen by 7.6%, and total phosphorus by 6.2%, while achieving biomass yields of 8.6–9.2 metric tons per hectare. These findings highlight switchgrass as a dual-benefit strategy for land reclamation and bioenergy feedstock production. 4) Integrated Co-Firing and CCS for Carbon-Negative Power Generation We modeled co-firing scenarios using the Power Plant Flexible Model (PPFM) to evaluate plant efficiency, greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, and levelized cost of electricity (LCOE). Without carbon capture and storage (CCS), increasing switchgrass co-firing ratios reduced LCOE from $\$$150/MWh at 0% biomass to $\$$110/MWh at full substitution. Under CCS, costs remained higher (~$\$$250/MWh at 0% biomass) but decreased to $\$$200/MWh at 100% biomass, while enabling net-zero or carbon-negative electricity due to switchgrass sequestration benefits. Although CCS introduced efficiency penalties, pairing it with biomass co-firing offset these impacts and maximized climate benefits. Overall, optimizing co-firing ratios between 60-100%, supported by reliable logistics and storage strategies, emerged as a practical pathway to balance affordability, sustainability, and net-zero or negative GHG emissions while promoting productive reuse of AMLs.

01 COAL, LIGNITE, AND PEAT↗

The Marshall Automated Weld System (MAWS)

A fully automated welding system, which can operate totally independent of human intervention, is currently unavailable in the welding industry. Development of the Marshall Automated Weld System (MAWS) has been undertaken to fill this void. The system will enable application of statistical process control practices to assure weld quality prior to post weld nondestructive testing. The Variable Polarity Plasma Arc (VPPA) welding process has been baselined for MAWS because it has eliminated process related defects in the welding of the Space Shuttle External Tank. The few remaining weld defects occurring on the tank can be associated with human error. The system integrates multiple sensors (providing real time information on weld bead geometry, weld joint location, wirefeed entry, and inert gas quality) with a weld model (describing weld geometry in relation to critical parameters) and computer-controlled VPPA weld equipment. This system is designed to provide real-time, closed-loop control of the weld as it is being made.

Russell, Carolyn K.↗

The Marshall Automated Weld System (MAWS)

A fully automated welding system, which can operate totally independent of human intervention, is currently unavailable in the welding industry. Development of the Marshall Automated Weld System (MAWS) has been undertaken to fill this void. The system will enable application of statistical process control practices to assure weld quality prior to post weld nondestructive testing. The Variable Polarity Plasma Arc (VPPA) welding process has been baselined for MAWS because it has eliminated process related defects in the welding of the Space Shuttle External Tank. The few remaining weld defects occurring on the tank can be associated with human error. The system integrates multiple sensors (providing real time information on weld bead geometry, weld joint location, wirefeed entry, and inert gas quality) with a weld model (describing weld geometry in relation to critical parameters) and computer controlled VPPA weld equipment. This system is designed to provide real-time, closed-loop control of the weld as it is being made.

Russell, Carolyn K.↗

First Reprocessing of Southern Hemisphere ADditional OZonesondes (SHADOZ) Profile Records (1998-2015): 1. Methodology and Evaluation

Electrochemical concentration cell ozonesonde measurements are an important source of highly resolved vertical profiles of ozone with long-term data records for deriving ozone trends, model development, satellite validation, and air quality studies. Ozonesonde stations employ a range of operational and data processing procedures, metadata reporting, and instrument changes that have resulted in inhomogeneities within individual station data records. A major milestone is the first reprocessing of seven Southern Hemisphere ADditional OZonesondes (SHADOZ) station ozonesonde records to account for errors and biases in operating/processing procedures. Ascension Island, Hanoi, Irene, Kuala Lumpur, La Reunion, Natal, and Watukosek station records all show an overall increase in ozone after reprocessing. Watukosek shows the largest increase of 9.0 plus or minus 2.1 Dobson Units (DU) in total column ozone; Irene and Hanoi show a 5.5 plus or minus 2.5 DU increase, while remaining sites show statistically insignificant enhancements. Negligible to modest ozone enhancements are observed after reprocessing in the troposphere (up to 8%) and stratosphere (up to 6%), except at La Reunion for which the application of background currents reduces tropospheric ozone (2.1 plus or minus1.3 DU). Inhomogeneities due to ozonesonde/solution-type changes at Ascension, Natal, and La Reunion are resolved with the application of transfer functions. Comparisons with EP-TOMS, Aura's Ozone Monitoring Instrument and Microwave Limb Sounder (MLS) satellite ozone overpasses show an overall improvement in agreement after reprocessing. Most reprocessed data sets show a significant reduction in biases with MLS at the ozone maximum region (50-10 hPa). Changes in radiosonde/ozonesonde system and nonstandard solution types can account for remaining discrepancies observed at several sites when compared to satellites.

Electrochemical concentration cell ozonesonde meas↗

Tropical Pacific moisture variability

The objectives are to describe synoptic scale variability of moisture over the tropical Pacific Ocean and the systems leading to this variability; implement satellite analysis procedures in support of this effort, and to incorporate additional satellite information into operational analysis forecast systems at the National Meteorological Center (NMC). Composite satellite radiance patterns describe features detectable well before the development of synoptic scale tropical plumes. These typical features were extracted from historical files of Tiros Operational Vertical Sounder (TOVS) radiance observations for a pair of tropical plumes which developed during January 1989. Signals were inserted into the NMC operational medium range forecast model and a suite of model integrations were conducted. Many of the 48 h model errors of the historical forecasts were eliminated by the inclusion of more complete satellite observations. Three studies in satellite radiance analysis progressed. An analysis which blended TOVS moisture channels, OLR observations and European Center for Medium Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) model analysis to generate fields of total precipitable water comparable to those estimated from Scanning Multichannel Microwave Radiometer (SMMR) mu-wave observations. This study demonstrated that a 10 y climatology of precipitable water over the oceans is feasible, using available infrared observations (OLR and TOVS) and model analysis (ECMWF, NMC or similar quality). The estimates are sensitive to model quality and the estimating model must be updated with operational model changes. Coe developed a set of tropical plume and ITCZ composites from TOVS observations, and from NMC and ECMWF analyses which had been passed through a radiative transfer model to simulate TOVS radiances. The composites have been completed as well as many statistical diagnostics of individual TOVS channels. Analysis of the computations is commencing. Chung has initiated a study of the differences between TOVS observed vapor structure during El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO) (1983) and non-ENSO (1984) years. Preliminary diagnosis demonstrates gross moisture changes between warm and cold sea surface temperature episodes.

Mcguirk, James P.↗

Monitoring and Assimilation of MLS Measurements in the DAO Ozone Data Assimilation System

Since 1999 the DAO (Data Assimilation Office) at NASA Goddard has operationally assimilated ozone measurements in near real time. Currently, the assimilation system analyzes SBUV profile and total column measurements using an off line CTM with parameterized chemistry within the 3D-PSAS algorithm. During the last year the assimilation system was modified to either monitor or actively assimilate MLS (Microwave Limb Sounder) measurements in conjunction with the active assimilation of TOMS total column and SBUV profiles. It is expected that the active assimilation of MLS profiles will improve analysis results in two ways. First, there should be an improvement in the vertical resolution. Second, there should be an improvement in regions where SBUV measurements do not exist (such as in the polar night). A series of experiments using UARS (Upper Atmospheric Research Satellite) MLS data from December 1991 to March 1992 were run. In these experiments MLS data was either monitored in conjunction with active assimilation of the SBUV profile and TOMS total column measurements, or some combination of MLS, TOMS, and SBUV observations was actively assimilated. Monitoring of MLS data indicated that the MLS observations contain verifiable information that should improve the vertical structure of the analysis results, especially below the ozone peak and above the tropopause. The monitoring also substantiated the potential to improve the assimilation in the polar night. Active assimilation of MLS data does indeed improve the analysis results in these two ways, although the quality of the improvements is not uniform. This suggests that refinement of the specification of the error covariances might be needed to optimize the system. In addition it may be necessary to account for biases between the different sources of ozone information.

Atlas, Robert↗

Mission operations and command assurance: Instilling quality into flight operations

Mission Operations and Command Assurance (MO&CA) is a Total Quality Management (TQM) task on JPL projects to instill quality in flight mission operations. From a system engineering view, MO&CA facilitates communication and problem-solving among flight teams and provides continuous process improvement to reduce the probability of radiating incorrect commands to a spacecraft. The MO&CA task has evolved from participating as a member of the spacecraft team to an independent team reporting directly to flight project management and providing system level assurance. JPL flight projects have benefited significantly from MO&CA's effort to contain risk and prevent rather than rework errors. MO&CA's ability to provide direct transfer of knowledge allows new projects to benefit from previous and ongoing flight experience.

Welz, Linda L.↗

Genomic Diversity Evaluation of Populus trichocarpa Germplasm for Rare Variant Genetic Association Studies

Genome-wide association studies are powerful tools to elucidate the genome-to-phenome relationship. In order to explain most of the observed heritability of a phenotypic trait, a sufficient number of individuals and a large set of genetic variants must be examined. The development of high-throughput technologies and cost-efficient resequencing of complete genomes have enabled the genome-wide identification of genetic variation at large scale. As such, almost all existing genetic variation becomes available, and it is now possible to identify rare genetic variants in a population sample. Rare genetic variants that were usually filtered out in most genetic association studies are the most numerous genetic variations across genomes and hold great potential to explain a significant part of the missing heritability observed in association studies. Rare genetic variants must be identified with high confidence, as they can easily be confounded with sequencing errors. In this study, we used a pre-filtered data set of 1,014 pure Populus trichocarpa entire genomes to identify rare and common small genetic variants across individual genomes. We compared variant calls between Platypus and HaplotypeCaller pipelines, and we further applied strict quality filters for improved genetic variant identification. Finally, we only retained genetic variants that were identified by both variant callers increasing calling confidence. Based on these shared variants and after stringent quality filtering, we found high genomic diversity in P. trichocarpa germplasm, with 7.4 million small genetic variants. Importantly, 377k non-synonymous variants (5% of the total) were uncovered. We highlight the importance of genomic diversity and the potential of rare defective genetic variants in explaining a significant portion of P. trichocarpa's phenotypic variability in association genetics. The ultimate goal is to associate both rare and common alleles with poplar's wood quality traits to support selective breeding for an improved bioenergy feedstock.

Genetics & Heredity↗

Mission operations and command assurance: Flight operations quality improvements

Mission Operations and Command Assurance (MO&CA) is a Total Quality Management (TQM) task on JPL projects to instill quality in flight mission operations. From a system engineering view, MO&CA facilitates communication and problem-solving among flight teams and provides continuous solving among flight teams and provides continuous process improvement to reduce risk in mission operations by addressing human factors. The MO&CA task has evolved from participating as a member of the spacecraft team, to an independent team reporting directly to flight project management and providing system level assurance. JPL flight projects have benefited significantly from MO&CA's effort to contain risk and prevent rather than rework errors. MO&CA's ability to provide direct transfer of knowledge allows new projects to benefit from previous and ongoing flight experience.

Welz, Linda L.↗

Fast and stable deep-learning predictions of material properties for solid solution alloys

We present a novel deep learning (DL) approach to produce highly accurate predictions of macroscopic physical properties of solid solution binary alloys and magnetic systems. The major idea is to make use of the correlations between different physical properties in alloy systems to improve the prediction accuracy of neural network (NN) models. We use multitasking NN models to simultaneously predict the total energy, charge density and magnetic moment. These physical properties mutually serve as constraints during the training of the multitasking NN, resulting in more reliable DL models because multiple physics properties are correctly learned by a single model. Two binary alloys, copper–gold (CuAu) and iron–platinum (FePt), were studied. Our results show that once the multitasking NN's are trained, they can estimate the material properties for a specific configuration hundreds of times faster than first-principles density functional theory calculations while retaining comparable accuracy. We used a simple measure based on the root-mean-squared errors to quantify the quality of the NN models, and found that the inclusion of charge density and magnetic moment as physical constraints leads to more stable models that exhibit improved accuracy and reduced uncertainty for the energy predictions.

75 CONDENSED MATTER PHYSICS, SUPERCONDUCTIVITY AND↗

Development of Three-Dimensional DRAGON Grid Technology

For a typical three dimensional flow in a practical engineering device, the time spent in grid generation can take 70 percent of the total analysis effort, resulting in a serious bottleneck in the design/analysis cycle. The present research attempts to develop a procedure that can considerably reduce the grid generation effort. The DRAGON grid, as a hybrid grid, is created by means of a Direct Replacement of Arbitrary Grid Overlapping by Nonstructured grid. The DRAGON grid scheme is an adaptation to the Chimera thinking. The Chimera grid is a composite structured grid, composing a set of overlapped structured grids, which are independently generated and body-fitted. The grid is of high quality and amenable for efficient solution schemes. However, the interpolation used in the overlapped region between grids introduces error, especially when a sharp-gradient region is encountered. The DRAGON grid scheme is capable of completely eliminating the interpolation and preserving the conservation property. It maximizes the advantages of the Chimera scheme and adapts the strengths of the unstructured and while at the same time keeping its weaknesses minimal. In the present paper, we describe the progress towards extending the DRAGON grid technology into three dimensions. Essential and programming aspects of the extension, and new challenges for the three-dimensional cases, are addressed.

Zheng, Yao↗

An Efficient Objective Analysis System for Parallel Computers

A new objective analysis system designed for parallel computers will be described. The system can produce a global analysis (on a 2 x 2.5 lat-lon grid with 20 levels of heights and winds and 10 levels of moisture) using 120,000 observations in less than 3 minutes on 32 CPUs (SGI Origin 2000). No special parallel code is needed (e.g. MPI or multitasking) and the 32 CPUs do not have to be on the same platform. The system Ls totally portable and can run on -several different architectures at once. In addition, the system can easily scale up to 100 or more CPUS. This will allow for much higher resolution and significant increases in input data. The system scales linearly as the number of observations and the number of grid points. The cost overhead in going from I to 32 CPus is 18%. in addition, the analysis results are identical regardless of the number of processors used. T'his system has all the characteristics of optimal interpolation, combining detailed instrument and first guess error statistics to produce the best estimate of the atmospheric state. It also includes a new quality control (buddy check) system. Static tests with the system showed it's analysis increments are comparable to the latest NASA operational system including maintenance of mass-wind balance. Results from a 2-month cycling test in the Goddard EOS Data Assimilation System (GEOS DAS) show this new analysis retains the same level of agreement between the first guess and observations (0-F statistics) throughout the entire two months.

Stobie, James G.↗

Enhancing the representation of water management in global hydrological models

Abstract. This study enhances an existing global hydrological model (GHM), Xanthos, by adding a new water management module that distinguishes between the operational characteristics of irrigation, hydropower, and flood control reservoirs. We remapped reservoirs in the Global Reservoir and Dam (GRanD) database to the 0.5∘ spatial resolution in Xanthos so that a single lumped reservoir exists per grid cell, which yielded 3790 large reservoirs. We implemented unique operation rules for each reservoir type, based on their primary purposes. In particular, hydropower reservoirs have been treated as flood control reservoirs in previous GHM studies, while here, we determined the operation rules for hydropower reservoirs via optimization that maximizes long-term hydropower production. We conducted global simulations using the enhanced Xanthos and validated monthly streamflow for 91 large river basins, where high-quality observed streamflow data were available. A total of 1878 (296 hydropower, 486 irrigation, and 1096 flood control and others) out of the 3790 reservoirs are located in the 91 basins and are part of our reported results. The Kling–Gupta efficiency (KGE) value (after adding the new water management) is ≥ 0.5 and ≥ 0.0 in 39 and 81 basins, respectively. After adding the new water management module, model performance improved for 75 out of 91 basins and worsened for only 7. To measure the relative difference between explicitly representing hydropower reservoirs and representing hydropower reservoirs as flood control reservoirs (as is commonly done in other GHMs), we use the normalized root mean square error (NRMSE) and the coefficient of determination (R2). Out of the 296 hydropower reservoirs, the NRMSE is > 0.25 (i.e., considering 0.25 to represent a moderate difference) for over 44 % of the 296 reservoirs when comparing both the simulated reservoir releases and storage time series between the two simulations. We suggest that correctly representing hydropower reservoirs in GHMs could have important implications for our understanding and management of freshwater resource challenges at regional-to-global scales. This enhanced global water management modeling framework will allow the analysis of future global reservoir development and management from a coupled human–earth system perspective.

13 HYDRO ENERGY↗