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NASA NTRS2024

Aera-Mip: Emission Pathways, Remaining Budgets, and Carbon Cycle Dynamics Compatible With 1.5 and 2 °C Global Warming Stabilization

While international climate policies now focus on limiting global warming to well below 2 °C or pursuing a 1.5 °C level of global warming, the climate modelling community has not provided an experimental design in which all Earth system models (ESMs) converge and stabilize at the same prescribed global warming levels. This gap hampers accurate estimations based on comprehensive ESMs of the carbon emission pathways and budgets needed to meet such agreed warming levels and of the associated climate impacts under temperature stabilization. Here, we apply the Adaptive Emission Reduction Approach (AERA) with ESMs to provide such simulations in which all models converge at 1.5 and 2.0 °C warming levels by adjusting their emissions over time. These emission-driven simulations provide a wide range of emission pathways and resulting atmospheric CO 2 projections for a given warming level, uncovering uncertainty ranges that were previously missing in the traditional Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP) scenarios with prescribed greenhouse gas concentration pathways. Meeting the 1.5 °C warming level requires a 40 % (full model range: 7 % to 76 %) reduction in multi-model mean CO 2 -forcing-equivalent (CO 2 -fe) emissions from 2025 to 2030, a 98 % (57 % to 127 %) reduction from 2025 to 2050, and a stabilization at 1.0 (−1.7 to 2.9) PgC yr−1 from 2100 onward after the 1.5 °C global warming level is reached. Meeting the 2.0 °C warming level requires a 47 % (8 % to 92 %) reduction in multi-model mean CO 2 -fe emissions until 2050 and a stabilization at 1.7 (−1.5 to 2.7) PgC yr−1 from 2100 onward. The on-average positive emissions under stabilized global temperatures are the result of a decreasing transient climate response to cumulative CO 2 -fe emissions over time under stabilized global warming. This evolution is consistent with a slightly negative zero emissions commitment – initially assumed to be zero – and leads to an increase in the post-2025 CO 2 -fe emission budget by a factor of 2.2 (−0.8 to 6.9) by 2150 for the 1.5 °C warming level and a factor of 1.4 (0.9 to 2.4) for the 2.0 °C warming level compared to its first estimate in 2025. The median CO 2 -only carbon budget by 2150, relative to 2020, is 800 GtCO 2 for the 1.5 °C warming level and 2250 GtCO 2 for the 2.0 °C warming level. These median values exceed the median IPCC AR6 estimates by 60 % for the 1.5 °C warming level and 67 % for 2.0 °C. Some of the differences may be explained by the choice of the mitigation scenario for non-CO 2 radiative agents. Our simulations highlight shifts in carbon uptake dynamics under stabilized temperature, such as a cessation of the carbon sinks in the North Atlantic and in tropical forests. On the other hand, the Southern Ocean remains a carbon sink centuries after temperatures stabilize. Overall, this new type of warming-level-based emission-driven simulation offers a more coherent assessment across climate models and opens up a wide range of possibilities for studying both the carbon cycle and climate impacts, such as extreme events, under climate stabilization.

Adaptive Emission Reduction Approach↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

AI-Enhanced Computational Tools for Entry Systems Modeling

To advance the understanding of complex atmospheric entry phenomena, NASA’s Entry Systems Modeling (ESM) team [1] has developed high-fidelity computational tools addressing multiscale challenges, from material microstructures to full-scale heatshield response. This abstract highlights a subset of ESM tools, focusing on AI integration to enhance workflows and predictive modeling. - PuMA [2] computes effective material properties from high-resolution micro-CT scans, supporting TPS analysis for NASA missions. - TomoSAM [3] automates 3D tomography dataset segmentation for PuMA using the Segment Anything Model, reducing manual effort and improving accuracy. - PATO [4] models porous reactive materials under extreme conditions, with advancements such as unified solvers, mechanical erosion, and TPS coatings for NASA missions. - arcjetCV [5] employs deep learning to analyze arc jet test footage, measuring recession rates, shape changes, and shock standoff distances, bridging simulations, and experiments to reveal TPS ablation behavior. - ARCHeS [6] simulates arc heater plasma flows, modeling turbulence, radiation, and electromagnetic interactions to optimize arc heater performance, validate TPS under extreme conditions, and serve as a foundation for developing digital twins of arc heater facilities. - SPARTA [7] simulates rarefied hypersonic flows and gas-surface interactions for planetary entry missions, leveraging GPU architectures for scalable and efficient aerothermal and ablation analyses. AI-driven solutions, such as deep learning segmentation, have streamlined workflows in ESM tools and still hold significant potential to further accelerate processes and enhance automation in entry systems modeling. [1] Haskins, J.B. (2023), [2] Ferguson, J.C. (2018), [3] Meurisse, J.B.E. (2018), [4] Semeraro, F. (2023), [5] Quintart, A. (2024) [6] Meurisse, J.B.E. (2022), [7] Plimpton, S.J. (2019)

Predictive Modeling↗
NASA NTRS2022

The Simulation and Subseasonal Forecasting of Hydrological Variables: Insights from a Simple Water Balance Model

Past work has shown that a land surface model’s (LSM’s) implicit (not explicitly coded) relationships between soil moisture and both evapotranspiration (ET) and runoff largely determine the LSM’s hydrological behavior. Here we estimate the relationships that appear to be operating in the real world and compare them to those of the LSM component of a state-of-the-art Earth system model (ESM). The two sets of relationships are determined by calibrating them within a simple water balance model (WBM): once using stream gauge observations from small, unregulated rivers over the eastern half of the U.S., and once using the runoffs generated by the LSM as part of a state-of-the-art atmospheric reanalysis. Hydrological simulations and subseasonal hydrological forecasts performed with the two calibrated versions of the WBM provide two key results. First, the version calibrated to the LSM-generated runoffs does successfully reproduce, to first order, the hydrological behavior of the full LSM within its ESM environment. Second, of the two WBM versions, the one calibrated to the observations reproduces more accurately a broad collection of fully independent streamflow observations as well as a similarly broad collection of in-situ soil moisture measurements. Taken together, the two results suggest that the observations-calibrated ET and runoff efficiency functions do successfully represent, at least to some degree, soil moisture controls over hydrological variability in Nature and can serve as potentially useful targets for further LSM development.

Water Balance Model↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Benefits of Trash-to-Gas Versus Jettison of Waste Via Trash-Lock for Mars Transit

Human exploration missions to Mars pose difficulties due to the significant waste that will be generated during transit, which will need to be carried along or disposed of in some fashion. Waste removal from the spacecraft decreases the spacecraft’s mass as well as the associated logistic items necessary for storing the waste. A mission propellant analysis was performed to highlight the mass benefits that may be accessed via waste removal. The propellant mass savings were determined for different waste removal rates (2.9 – 11.6 kg/day) with the highest removal rate leading to the greatest propellant savings of 7,785 kg for an 850-day round-trip mission. Due to these benefits, two methods for waste reduction were studied for the 850-day Mars mission: Trash-to-Gas (TtG) and physical jettison via a trash-lock. The trash-to-gas methods considered were combustion, steam reforming, and pyrolysis, which convert waste into ventable gases (e.g., CO2, CO, CH4, etc.). Combustion and steam reforming require a co-reactant (O2 and/or H2O). Therefore, additional processing units or integration with the spacecraft’s environmental control and life support system (ECLSS) are required to facilitate recycle of the pertinent species. In contrast, pyrolysis is a purely thermal degradation process, which can operate as a standalone system; however, a lower percentage of waste is gasified with pyrolysis. The study herein compares standalone TtG (e.g., Advanced Organic Waste Gasifier, Plasma Pyrolysis, etc.), integrated TtG-ECLSS (e.g., Orbital Syngas Commodity Augmentation Reactor, Incineration/Gasification, etc.), and physical jettison. Each system’s mass, volume, power, and cooling requirements were compared via an equivalent system mass (ESM) analysis to ascertain potentially promising technologies that can achieve efficient waste removal while minimizing their own spacecraft load. This study highlights the advantages and disadvantages of the different waste management technologies and provides recommendations on the promising technologies based on the ESM metric and propellant mass savings.

Jettison↗
NASA NTRS1972

Exploratory development of a flexible ablative covering for space shuttle application

An applied research program is considered for a preliminary design and development of a flexible ablative covering for the space shuttle vehicle that could be easily replaced and/or refurbished. The program was structured to concentrate resources on the major technical problem areas associated with the flexible ablator concept. These areas included: (1) fabrication of a suitable woven carpet reinforcement, (2) modification of a flexible ablator formulation for filling the woven carpet construction, and (3) testing of the flexible ablator concept. Several approaches were evaluated to obtain a flexible ablator. The final recommended solution was one in which the ablative filler was based on a low-density formulation of the elastomeric shield material series (ESM). The preferred approach is one in which a light-weight fabric backing is bonded to preformed and fully cured ESM, and the composite tufted with Astroquartz fiber to the desired tuft or pile density. Ablation tests performed in a hyperthermal arc facility demonstrated the ablation performance of the concept and overshoot capability of the system.

Hiltz, A. A.↗
NASA NTRS2000

Food System Trade Study for a Near-Term Mars Mission

This paper evaluates several food system options for a near-term Mars mission, based on plans for the 120-day BIO-Plex test. Food systems considered in the study are based on the International Space Station (ISS) Assembly Phase and Assembly Complete food systems. The four systems considered are: 1) ISS assembly phase food system (US portion) with individual packaging without salad production; 2) ISS assembly phase food system (US portion) with individual packaging, with salad production; 3) ISS assembly phase food system (US portion) with bulk packaging, with salad production; 4) ISS assembly complete food system (US portion) with bulk packaging with salad and refrigeration/freezing. The food system options are assessed using equivalent system mass (ESM), which evaluates each option based upon the mass, volume, power, cooling and crewtime requirements that are associated with each food system option. However, since ESM is unable to elucidate the differences in psychological benefits between the food systems, a qualitative evaluation of each option is also presented.

Levri, Julie↗
NASA NTRS2003

Equivalent Mass versus Life Cycle Cost for Life Support Technology Selection

The decision to develop a particular life support technology or to select it for flight usually depends on the cost to develop and fly it. Other criteria - performance, safety, reliability, crew time, and risk - are considered, but cost is always an important factor. Because launch cost accounts for most of the cost of planetary missions, and because launch cost is directly proportional to the mass launched, equivalent mass has been used instead of cost to select life support technology. The equivalent mass of a life support system includes the estimated masses of the hardware and of the pressurized volume, power supply, and cooling system that the hardware requires. The equivalent mass is defined as the total payload launch mass needed to provide and support the system. An extension of equivalent mass, Equivalent System Mass (ESM), has been established for use in Advanced Life Support. A crew time mass-equivalent and sometimes other non-mass factors are added to equivalent mass to create ESM. Equivalent mass is an estimate of the launch cost only. For earth orbit rather than planetary missions, the launch cost is usually exceeded by the cost of Design, Development, Test, and Evaluation (DDT&E). Equivalent mass is used only in life support analysis. Life Cycle Cost (LCC) is much more commonly used. LCC includes DDT&E, launch, and operations costs. Since LCC includes launch cost, it is always a more accurate cost estimator than equivalent mass. The relative costs of development, launch, and operations vary depending on the mission design, destination, and duration. Since DDT&E or operations may cost more than launch, LCC may give a more accurate cost ranking than equivalent mass. To be sure of identifying the lowest cost technology for a particular mission, we should use LCC rather than equivalent mass.

Jones, Harry↗
NASA NTRS2003

Life support approaches for Mars missions

Life support approaches for Mars missions are evaluated using an equivalent system mass (ESM) approach, in which all significant costs are converted into mass units. The best approach, as defined by the lowest mission ESM, depends on several mission parameters, notably duration, environment and consequent infrastructure costs, and crew size, as well as the characteristics of the technologies which are available. Generally, for the missions under consideration, physicochemical regeneration is most cost effective. However, bioregeneration is likely to be of use for producing salad crops for any mission, for producing staple crops for medium duration missions, and for most food, air and water regeneration for long missions (durations of a decade). Potential applications of in situ resource utilization need to be considered further. c2002 Published by Elsevier Science Ltd on behalf of COSPAR.

NASA Discipline Life Support Systems↗
NASA NTRS2004

Advanced Life Support Research and Technology Development Metric: Fiscal Year 2003

This document provides the official calculation of the Advanced Life Support (ALS) Research and Technology Development Metric (the Metric) for Fiscal Year 2003. As such, the values herein are primarily based on Systems Integration, Modeling, and Analysis (SIMA) Element approved software tools or reviewed and approved reference documents. The Metric is one of several measures employed by the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) to assess the Agency s progress as mandated by the United States Congress and the Office of Management and Budget. Because any measure must have a reference point, whether explicitly defined or implied, the Metric is a comparison between a selected ALS Project life support system and an equivalently detailed life support system using technology from the Environmental Control and Life Support System (ECLSS) for the International Space Station (ISS). More specifically, the Metric is the ratio defined by the equivalent system mass (ESM) of a life support system for a specific mission using the ISS ECLSS technologies divided by the ESM for an equivalent life support system using the best ALS technologies. As defined, the Metric should increase in value as the ALS technologies become lighter, less power intensive, and require less volume. For Fiscal Year 2003, the Advanced Life Support Research and Technology Development Metric value is 1.47 for an Orbiting Research Facility and 1.36 for an Independent Exploration Mission.

Hanford, A. J.↗
NASA NTRS1997

Parallel Optimization of an Earth System Model (100 Gigaflops and Beyond?)

We are developing an Earth System Model (ESM) to be used in research aimed to better understand the interactions between the components of the Earth System and to eventually predict their variations. Currently, our ESM includes models of the atmosphere, oceans and the important chemical tracers therein.

Parallel Optimization Earth System Model↗
NASA NTRS2009

Laundry Study for a Lunar Outpost

In support of the Constellation Program, which will return humans to the moon and establish an Outpost, NASA has conducted an analysis of crew clothing and laundry options. Single-use or "disposable" clothing has been used from Apollo until International Space Station (ISS) missions, meaning that clothes were worn for the whole mission or thrown away when they became too dirty to wear any longer. This is justified for short duration missions; however, as the Constellation mission will last much longer and each individual Outpost mission is expected to last up to 180 days, mission goals and launch penalties for mass and volume may lead to a different conclusion. Furthermore, the habitat atmosphere pressure and therefore oxygen volume percentage will be different from ISS or Shuttle. Almost daily EVA sorties will be a norm during Outpost exploration missions. All of these factors will have impacts on selection of crew clothing and laundry options for Outpost missions. Mass and volume estimates for disposable crew clothing have been shown as a major penalty in long-duration manned space exploration missions in previous analyses. Assuming disposable clothing like ISS, Equivalent System Mass (ESM) of crew clothing and hygiene towels was estimated to be 11,000 kg or about 11% of total life support system ESM for a 10-year Lunar Outpost mission with 4 crew members. Ways to reduce this clothing penalty, which are discussed in this paper, include: a) Reduce clothing supply rate through using clothes made of advanced fabrics; b) Reduce daily usage rate by extending its use duration before disposing; and c) Use laundry and reusable clothing. The report summarizes recent research efforts in advanced clothing, proposed clothing supply rates for Exploration missions, results of a trade-off study between disposable clothing and laundry, and conclusions and suggestions for Constellation Program clothing.

Ewert, Michael↗
NASA NTRS2009

Environmental Control and Life Support System (ECLSS) System Engineering Workshop

This slide presentation begins with a recap on a previous lecture on the ECLSS subsystems, and the various types (i.e., Non-regenerative vs Regenerative, open loop vs closed loop, and physical-chemical vs bioregenerative) It also recaps the Equivalent system mass (ESM) metric. The presentation continues with a review of the ECLSS of the various NASA manned space exploration programs from Mercury, to the current planned Altair lunar landing, and Lunar base operations. There is also a team project to establish the ESM of two conceptualized missions.

Peterson, Laurie J.↗
NASA NTRS2010

Parametric Analysis of Life Support Systems for Future Space Exploration Missions

Having adopted a flexible path approach to space exploration, the National Aeronautics and Space Administration is in a process of evaluating future targets for space exploration. In order to maintain the welfare of a crew during future missions, a suite of life support technology is responsible for oxygen and water generation, carbon dioxide control, the removal of trace concentrations of organic contaminants, processing and recovery of water, and the storage and reclamation of solid waste. For each particular life support subsystem, a variety competing technologies either exist or are under aggressive development efforts. Each individual technology has strengths and weaknesses with regard to launch mass, power and cooling requirements, volume of hardware and consumables, and crew time requirements for operation. However, from a system level perspective, the favorability of each life support architecture is better assessed when the sub-system technologies are analyzed in aggregate. In order to evaluate each specific life support system architecture, the measure of equivalent system mass (ESM) was employed to benchmark system favorability. Moreover, the results discussed herein will be from the context of loop-closure with respect to the air, water, and waste sub-systems. Specifically, closure relates to the amount of consumables mass that crosses the boundary of the vehicle over the lifetime of a mission. As will be demonstrated in this manuscript, the optimal level of loop closure is heavily dependent upon mission requirements such as duration and the level of extra- vehicular activity (EVA) performed. Sub-system level trades were also considered as a function of mission duration to assess when increased loop closure is practical. Although many additional factors will likely merit consideration in designing life support systems for future missions, the ESM results described herein provide a context for future architecture design decisions toward a flexible path program.

Swickrath, Michael J.↗
NASA NTRS2011

Carbon Dioxide Reduction Technology Trade Study

For long-term human missions, a closed-loop atmosphere revitalization system (ARS) is essential to minimize consumables. A carbon dioxide (CO2) reduction technology is used to reclaim oxygen (O2) from metabolic CO2 and is vital to reduce the delivery mass of metabolic O2. A key step in closing the loop for ARS will include a proper CO2 reduction subsystem that is reliable and with low equivalent system mass (ESM). Sabatier and Bosch CO2 reduction are two traditional CO2 reduction subsystems (CRS). Although a Sabatier CRS has been delivered to International Space Station (ISS) and is an important step toward closing the ISS ARS loop, it recovers only 50% of the available O2 in CO2. A Bosch CRS is able to reclaim all O2 in CO2. However, due to continuous carbon deposition on the catalyst surface, the penalties of replacing spent catalysts and reactors and crew time in a Bosch CRS are significant. Recently, technologies have been developed for recovering hydrogen (H2) from Sabatier-product methane (CH4). These include methane pyrolysis using a microwave plasma, catalytic thermal pyrolysis of CH4 and thermal pyrolysis of CH4. Further, development in Sabatier reactor designs based on microchannel and microlith technology could open up opportunities in reducing system mass and enhancing system control. Improvements in Bosch CRS conversion have also been reported. In addition, co-electrolysis of steam and CO2 is a new technology that integrates oxygen generation and CO2 reduction functions in a single system. A co-electrolysis unit followed by either a Sabatier or a carbon formation reactor based on Bosch chemistry could improve the overall competitiveness of an integrated O2 generation and CO2 reduction subsystem. This study evaluates all these CO2 reduction technologies, conducts water mass balances for required external supply of water for 1-, 5- and 10-yr missions, evaluates mass, volume, power, cooling and resupply requirements of various technologies. A system analysis and comparison among the technologies was made based on ESM, technology readiness level and reliability. Those technologies with potential were recommended for development.

Jeng, Frank F.↗
NASA NTRS2011

Parametric Analysis of Life Support Systems for Future Space Exploration Missions

The National Aeronautics and Space Administration is in a process of evaluating future targets for space exploration. In order to maintain the welfare of a crew during future missions, a suite of life support technology is responsible for oxygen and water generation, carbon dioxide control, the removal of trace concentrations of organic contaminants, processing and recovery of water, and the storage and reclamation of solid waste. For each particular life support subsystem, a variety competing technologies either exist or are under aggressive development efforts. Each individual technology has strengths and weaknesses with regard to launch mass, power and cooling requirements, volume of hardware and consumables, and crew time requirements for operation. However, from a system level perspective, the favorability of each life support architecture is better assessed when the sub-system technologies are analyzed in aggregate. In order to evaluate each specific life support system architecture, the measure of equivalent system mass (ESM) was employed to benchmark system favorability. Moreover, the results discussed herein will be from the context of loop-closure with respect to the air, water, and waste sub-systems. Specifically, closure relates to the amount of consumables mass that crosses the boundary of the vehicle over the lifetime of a mission. As will be demonstrated in this manuscript, the optimal level of loop closure is heavily dependent upon mission requirements such as duration and the level of extra-vehicular activity (EVA) performed. Sub-system level trades were also considered as a function of mission duration to assess when increased loop closure is practical. Although many additional factors will likely merit consideration in designing life support systems for future missions, the ESM results described herein provide a context for future architecture design decisions toward a flexible path program.

Swickrath, Michael J.↗
NASA NTRS2013

The Multi-purpose Crew Vehicle European Service Module: a European Contribution to Human Exploration

This paper provides an overview of the system and subsystem configuration of the MPCV European Service Module (ESM) at Preliminary Design Review (PDR) stage as well as its perspectives of utilisation within the global space exploration endeavour. The MPCV ESM is a cylindrical module with a diameter of 4500 mm and a total length - main engine excluded - of 2700 mm. It is fitted with four solar array wings with a span of 18.8 m. Its dry mass is 3.5 metric tons and it can carry 8.6 tons of propellant. The main functions of the European Service Module are to bring the structural continuity between the launcher and the crew module, to provide propulsion to the MPCV, to ensure its thermal control as well as electrical power and to store water, oxygen and nitrogen for the mission. The current agreement foresees the development and production by Europe of one flight model, with an option for a second one. This module will be assembled in Europe and delivered to NASA in 2016. It will be used for a flight of the MPCV Orion in December 2017.

Design↗
NASA NTRS2013

The Multi-purpose Crew Vehicle European Service Module: a European Contribution to Human Exploration

This paper provides an overview of the system and subsystem configuration of the MPCV European Service Module (ESM) at Preliminary Design Review (PDR) stage as well as its perspectives of utilisation within the global space exploration endeavour. The MPCV ESM is a cylindrical module with a diameter of 4500 mm and a total length – main engine excluded – of 2700 mm. It is fitted with four solar array wings with a span of 18.8 m. Its dry mass is 3.5 metric tons and it can carry 8.6 tons of propellant. The main functions of the European Service Module are to bring the structural continuity between the launcher and the crew module, to provide propulsion to the MPCV, to ensure its thermal control as well as electrical power and to store water, oxygen and nitrogen for the mission. The current agreement foresees the development and production by Europe of one flight model, with an option for a second one. This module will be assembled in Europe and delivered to NASA in 2016. It will be used for a flight of the MPCV Orion in December 2017.

European Service Module↗
NASA NTRS2014

Plume Impingement Analysis for the European Service Module Propulsion System

Plume impingement analyses were performed for the European Service Module (ESM) propulsion system Orbital Maneuvering System engine (OMS-E), auxiliary engines, and reaction control system (RCS) engines. The heat flux from plume impingement on the solar arrays and other surfaces are evaluated. This information is used to provide inputs for the ESM thermal analyses and help determine the optimal configuration for the RCS engines.

simulation↗