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Gasoline Engine and Fuels Offering Reduced Fuel Consumption and Emissions: Vehicle Modeling Final Report

The Gasoline Engine and Fuels Offering Reduced Fuel Consumption and Emissions (GEFORCE) project was proposed in response to the U.S. Department of Energy’s Funding Opportunity Announcement 0991 by a team made up of the members of the Coordinating Research Council (CRC) and the research staff at Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL.) The project focused on investigating the potential benefits that might be attained through synergistic use of specific engine technology together with fuels formulated to represent potential directions that high-octane fuels of the future might progress. A stated objective in the DOE FOA was to demonstrate a 25% reduction in petroleum consumption through optimization of the engine technologies together with a suitable fuel. An advanced engine was constructed and used with a matrix of research fuels to investigate potential avenues for efficiency improvement. The engine incorporated technologies expected to become mainstream for boosted engines in the next 10 to 20 years. These included increased compression ratio, a two-stage turbocharger, and cooled external exhaust gas recirculation (EGR). The fuel matrix was designed to investigate impacts from research octane number (RON), volumetric ethanol content, and the final boiling point of the fuel. The engine calibration was optimized for each fuel individually and data collected to enable vehicle system modelling that projected energy consumption, fuel economy, tailpipe CO₂ emissions, and impact on petroleum consumption for an industry-average mid-size sedan. The engine calibration and data collection were carried out at IAV in Michigan and is the subject of a separate report. IAV provided the engine data to Oak Ridge National Laboratory to support the vehicle modelling portion of the project. The vehicle modelling results show the following trends: Ethanol content does have a consistently strong influence on the fuel economy results for all cycles and all fuels. Among the fuels of a nominal RON level, increasing ethanol content consistently lowers fuel economy, with the 30% ethanol fuels always providing the lowest fuel economy for a given RON level. However, in some cases the energy consumption improvement allows the 30% ethanol fuels to match the fuel economy of the ethanol-free fuel P. These observations underscore the importance of both engine efficiency and fuel volumetric energy content on vehicle fuel economy.; There was no consistent trend in the projected energy consumption results for differences in fuel T90 for all fuels and cycles. Fuel economy projections did show a consistent trend, with the higher T90 fuel providing slightly greater fuel economy when compared to the low T90 fuel of the same ethanol content. The observed trends were consistent with differences in the heating value of the fuels.; The 102-RON fuels provided reduced energy consumption and greater fuel economy for the advanced engine on all drive cycles. The engine compression ratio of 11.5 was higher than would typically be used in a turbocharged engine when 92-RON fuel use is expected. Hence, the engine experiences more efficiency degradation from knock avoidance when using the 92-RON fuels. This degradation causes the fuel economy results for the 92-RON fuels to be lower than those for the 102-RON fuels.; Fuels E and F (92-RON, 30% ethanol) are projected to achieve 10% or greater reduction in petroleum consumption, with fuels K (102-RON, 30% ethanol) and O (97 RON, 30% ethanol) achieving greater than a 20% reduction. Fuel L (102-RON, 30% ethanol) achieves greater than 25% reduction, meeting the petroleum reduction target of the project. All of the fuels that achieve 10% or greater reduction in petroleum consumption are 30% ethanol blends.; Increasing final boiling point increased fuel economy at fixed ethanol content when the 102-RON fuels were used. This trend is a result of differences in the volumetric energy content of the fuels and the projected energy consumption values for the fuels. In the case of the 102-RON fuels, increasing final boiling point also resulted in an increase in the energy content of the fuel. There was not a consistent trend between the energy content and final boiling point for the 92-RON fuels at fixed ethanol content.

33 ADVANCED PROPULSION SYSTEMS↗

Engine Operating Conditions, Fuel Property Effects, and Associated Fuel–Wall Interaction Dependencies of Stochastic Preignition

This work for the Coordinating Research Council (CRC) explores dependencies on the opportunity for fuel to impinge on internal engine surfaces (i.e., fuel–wall impingement) as a function of fuel properties and engine operating conditions and correlates these data with measurements of stochastic preignition (SPI) propensity. SPI rates are directly coupled with laser–induced florescence measurements of dye-doped fuel dilution measurements of the engine lubricant, which provides a surrogate for fuel–wall impingement. Literature suggests that SPI may have several dependencies, one being fuel–wall impingement. However, it remains unknown if fuel-wall impingement is a fundamental predictor and source of SPI or is simply a causational factor of SPI. In this study, these relationships on SPI and fuel-wall impingement are explored using 4 fuels at 8 operating conditions per fuel, for 32 total test points. The fuels were directly injected at two different injection timings: an earlier injection timing that initially targets the piston crown and a later injection timing that targets the cylinder liner. At each injection timing, the engine was operated at both 90°C and 70°C coolant and lubricant temperatures, and 185 and 200 kPa absolute intake manifold pressure. This work serves as an exploratory effort to down select conditions and provide initial fuel properties of interest for a secondary study to explore fuel property specific effects on fuel-wall interaction and SPI propensity. Significant findings from this initial operating condition and fuel property exploratory work are: 1. reduced engine operating coolant and lubricant temperatures, along with 2. retarded injection timings were required to increase SPI propensity. Moreover, at these conditions some fuel specific effects were also observed; specifically, increased ethanol content increased measured dye–wall (i.e., fuel–wall) interaction. However, despite increased dye–wall interaction, the increased volatility of the ethanol containing fuels also reduced the estimated fuel retention in the top-ring zone and associated measured SPI propensity. Thus, the findings of this unique approach to explore relationships between fuel-wall impingement and SPI highlight that SPI propensity is more directly proportional to retained fuel, and not simply fuel–wall impingement. Furthermore, fuel retention was found to be directly influenced by complex fuel property and engine operating condition relationships. Either retarded injection timings and/or increased fuel volatility increased fuel wall-impingement, while less volatile fuels and/or reduced coolant temperatures increased fuel retention. Therefore, for a given operating condition, the data highlights that greater volatile fuels exhibit increased fuel wall impingement without increased fuel retention or SPI propensity, while less volatile fuels could exhibit reduced fuel-wall impingement but increased fuel retention and SPI propensity rates.

33 ADVANCED PROPULSION SYSTEMS↗

FLEX-FUEL MIXING CONTROLLED COMBUSTION ENABLED BY PRECHAMBER IGNITION

There is an imminent need to displace fossil diesel fuel with cleaner burning, domestically produced, renewable fuels for use in heavy-duty engines. Bioethanol is a prime candidate as it widely adopted in the U.S. as a gasoline additive ranging in volume percentage from 10% (E10) up to 85% (E85). Direct substitution of market available ethanol-gasoline blends for diesel fuel is not plausible as the stark reactivity differences would not constitute the same ignition quality nor achieve auto-ignition at all. This work focuses on the development of prechamber enabled mixing-controlled combustion (PC-MCC) as an advanced combustion strategy to facilitate reliable ignition and diffusion style combustion ethanol-gasoline fuel blends. PC-MCC involves integration of an actively fueled prechamber (PC) into a conventional compression ignition combustion system. When ignited, the PC ejects hot turbulent jets into the main combustion chamber that then interact with the direct injected fuel, prompting immediate ignition. The PC jet flames provide a robust thermal ignition source that allows the engine to operate agnostic of fuel composition, or flex-fuel. Computational fluid dynamics (CFD) modeling was used to assess critical design features of the PC while garnering insights into the ignition strategies that facilitate robust performance. A key finding was the ignition performance benefits of fuel-rich PC operation which yield exothermic jets. Based on the numerical findings, a prototype igniter was tested experimentally on both single and multi-cylinder engine platforms at a variety of operating conditions. The experimental results indicate flex-fuel PC-MCC is well capable of diesel-like combustion processes by demonstrating matched or improved gross thermal efficiencies and load variability within 2%. Fuel grade ethanol (E98) exhibited consistently lower NOx and immeasurable soot across the load space. E98 also demonstrated a significant improvement in thermal efficiency at light loads.

Zeman, Jared↗

Catalytic upgrading of ethanol to C8+ distillate range ethers via Guerbet coupling and etherification

In this presentation we describe the catalytic approaches for conversion of ethanol into diesel fuel ethers. This involves first alcohol oligomerization, followed by acid-catalyzed dehydration. As we will show in this presentation, ethanol can be converted to higher linear and α-branched alcohols by C-C coupling reactions (ethanol oligomerization) as well as to high molecular weight esters by C-O coupling reactions with Cu/MgxAlOy (CuHT) catalysts. Alcohols may be converted to ethers via bimolecular dehydration in a subsequent step. We have identified more than 160 number of species in the products including alcohols, esters, aldehydes, ketones, and olefins. Alcohols range from C4 to C10. Both alcohols and esters follow a Schulz-Flory chain growth model. We show the relationship between the catalyst properties (BET surface area, acid and base site count and Cu loading and synthesis method) and the performance in the reactions. We also show that physical mixtures of CuHT and HT can have similar product selectivity of low loading CuHT catalysts. The selectivity towards diesel fuel precursor compounds (hereafter ‘DFPC’) increased with conversion until reaching a plateau at high ethanol conversion (~70%). Alcohol selectivity follows a Schultz-Flory distribution at all studied conversions, and that adsorbed ethanol-derived species may undergo surface oligomerization into 1-butanol and higher alcohols before desorbing in a chain-growth mechanism. Zeolite catalysts convert the C4+ alcohols into C8+ ethers in both batch and continuous flow reactors. Selectivities of up to 80% to C8+ ethers at around 70% conversion using a single pass continuous flow system are achieved. The final product feedstocks obtained from etherification have been used in technoeconomic (TEA) and lifecycle analysis (LCA), which indicate a reduction in greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions of 50% relative to conventional diesel and diesel fuel prices that are lower than biodiesel. These final feedstocks are undergoing engine testing to elucidate the physiochemical properties and compare well to diesel #2 ASTM standards.

Huber, George↗

Moving from residual lignocellulosic biomass into high–value products: Outcomes from a long–term international cooperation

Major progress in the bioprocessing of lignocellulose to fuels and value-added chemicals has created the possibility of a low carbon-footprint economy. However, the current complexity and associated costs of lignocellulose conversion result in a higher price for ethanol than for fossil fuels. The cost of cellulosic ethanol production will be lowered by further progress in development of biorefinery technology that produces both ethanol and high-value chemicals with bio-based products that are beginning to penetrate consumer markets in the USA, Brazil, and worldwide. The cost-effectiveness of low carbon-footprint bioproducts will benefit from advances in supplying large amounts of biomass solids to the biorefinery. We describe here outcomes from a successful long-term international cooperation between the Laboratory of Renewable Resources Engineering (LORRE) at Purdue University in the United States and Brazil's Agricultural Research Corporation (EMBRAPA) and Federal University of Sâo Carlos (UFSCar), which has contributed practical pathways to enhance the biorefinery concept. Furthermore, this paper gives an overview of developments that address fundamental knowledge of lignocellulosic biomass pretreatment hydrolysis under optimized operational conditions and bioreactor configurations, and the science and engineering that contributes to the effective production of fuel and ethanol and value-added products from biomass.

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗

Comparison of temperature adaptive calibration methods for laser induced fluorescence based fuel-in-oil instrument

Fuel dilution of engine oil (or fuel-in-oil, FiO) is an important issue as multiple and late-cycle fuel injection, integral to many combustion efficiency and emissions improvements (e.g., downsized boosted gasoline engines and catalyst thermal management) increases FiO rate. In addition to causing general wear and corrosion in engine due to decreased oil viscosity and pH buffering, FiO is also believed to cause destructive low speed pre-ignition (or super knock) in boosted SI engines. To understand the effects of engine operating conditions on the FiO rate, an optical diagnostic capable of measuring transient FiO on minute timescales was recently developed and demonstrated on a modified GM Ecotech engine system (Neupane et al., Applied Spectroscopy 2021). The measurement is based on adding a dye to the fuel and monitoring for its presence in oil via laser-induced fluorescence (LIF). The measured LIF signal is related to FiO concentration via pre-determined calibration factors using a multivariate classical least square (CLS) method.Since fluorescence quantum yield is a function of temperature, measured LIF intensity not only depends on FiO concentration but also oil temperature. To expand the applicability of the FiO diagnostic to transient oil-temperature conditions (e.g., cold start in practical engines), this study develops a method to account for oil-temperature variations. The effect of oil temperature (20°C - 95°C) on the LIF spectra of eight FiO samples ranging from ~0.8-15% was investigated. LIF intensities of the FiO samples decreased linearly with increasing temperature; the reductions being more significant at dye peaks. We develop a new calibration model (T-adaptive CLS) incorporating the temperature (T) effects on LIF intensity that enables simultaneous calculation of FiO and oil temperature. The improved FiO diagnostic with T-adaptive calibration is more robust, and applicable to varying oil-temperature conditions. For example, when strategies such as multiple/late fuel injections are applied to overcome cold-start instability due to use of low vaporization bio-based fuels such as ethanol, FiO rate is expected to be very high; the improved T-adaptive FiO diagnostic is hence relevant for engine- and fuel-system calibration and optimization. The diagnostic could also provide validation data for flow-field and spray interaction CFD models, further broadening the diagnostic’s utility for advancing engine technology and efficiency.

Neupane, Sneha↗

Retrospective analysis of the U.S. corn ethanol industry for 2005–2019: implications for greenhouse gas emission reductions

Since 2000, corn ethanol production in the USA has increased significantly – from 1.6 to 15 billion gallons (6.1 to 57 billion liters) – due to supportive biofuel policies. In this study, we conduct a retrospective analysis of the changes in US corn ethanol greenhouse gas emission intensity, sometimes known as carbon intensity (CI), over the 15 years from 2005 to 2019. Our analysis shows a significant decrease in CI: from 58 to 45 gCO 2 e/MJ of corn ethanol (a 23% reduction). This is due to several factors. Corn grain yield has increased continuously, reaching 168 bushels/acre (10.5 metric tons/ha, a 15% increase) while fertilizer inputs per acre have remained constant, resulting in decreased intensities of fertilizer inputs (e.g., 7% and 18% reduction in nitrogen and potash use per bushel of corn grain harvested, respectively). A 6.5% increase in ethanol yield, from 2.70 to 2.86 gal/bushel corn (0.402 to 0.427 L kg -1 corn), and a 24% reduction in ethanol plant energy use, from 32 000 to 25 000 Btu/gal ethanol (9.0 to 6.9 MJ L -1 ethanol) also helped reduce the CI. The total GHG emission reduction benefits through the reduction in the CI and increased ethanol production volume are estimated at 140 million metric tons (MMT) from 2005 to 2019 in the ethanol industry. Displacement of petroleum gasoline by corn ethanol in the transportation fuel market resulted in a total GHG emission reduction benefit of 544 MMT CO 2 e during the period 2005 to 2019.

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗

Expression of the Trichoderma reesei expansin-like protein, swollenin, in poplar results in biomass with improved sugar release by enzymatic hydrolysis

Ethanol production from lignocellulosic biomass has been considered an alternative to corn-based ethanol and fossil fuel. However, the secondary cell wall structure prevents efficient degradation of cellulose. Expression of cell wall degrading enzymes has been suggested as one solution to generate suitable feedstocks for lignocellulosic ethanol production. Swollenin (SWO), originating from Trichoderma reesei, disrupts cellulose structure with low-level hydrolytic activity to the glucan chain. Previously, characterization of T. reesei SWO has been carried out in multiple microorganisms and tobacco. This study heterologously overexpressed T. reesei SWO in hybrid poplar (Populus tremula × alba), a promising feedstock for biofuel production, under the control of either the constitutive Cauliflower Mosaic Virus 35S (CaMV 35S) promoter or the putative vascular tissue specific Subterranean Clover Stunt Virus S7 (SCSV) promoter. Transgenic poplar lines with high or moderate SWO expression level showed abnormal growth and reduced biomass production, along with increased glucose and reduced lignin contents. Increased cellulose crystallinity was observed in two transgenic events. This study also investigated the effect of in planta SWO expression on cellulose saccharification efficiency and found that transgenic events improved glucan conversion rates compared to wild type poplar. The results suggest SWO-overexpressing transgenic poplar lines could be a potential feedstock for ethanol production.

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗

Effects of fuel composition and octane sensitivity on polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbon and soot emissions of gasoline–ethanol blend surrogates

The sooting propensity of a fuel is closely coupled with the fuel composition and chemistry. A detailed understanding of their effects is, therefore, needed to develop next-generation fuels which can minimize particulate emissions. With this overarching goal, the present work numerically investigates the effects of fuel composition and octane sensitivity (S) on polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAH) and soot emissions, for four-component gasoline-ethanol blend surrogates comprising isooctane, n-heptane, toluene, and ethanol. A partially-premixed counterflow flame is chosen as the canonical configuration for this study and simulations are performed using CHEMKIN-Pro-employing a kinetic mechanism developed by Park et al. (2017). In addition, a, detailed soot model based on the sectional method is used to capture the spatial characteristics of soot emissions. The kinetic mechanism and soot model are validated using available experimental data for various targets. A total of 86 TPRF-E mixtures, spanning a wide range of concentration of each component, and a wide range of S are analyzed. The effect of each non-paraffinic fuel component on the resultant PAH and soot emissions is investigated. PAH and soot emissions are found to vary significantly depending upon the blend composition. Additionally, based on the parametric sweeps, a regression analysis is carried out to identify global parameters that govern the formation of PAHs and soot. The analysis shows that both toluene content and S have a prominent effect on the formation of PAHs and soot, with toluene content having a stronger impact. Moreover, larger PAHs have higher dependency on toluene content and S. Furthermore, a detailed analysis is carried out to understand the physical and chemical phenomena associated with the observed trends of PAH and soot emissions.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

Spill Behavior, Detection, and Mitigation for Emerging Nontraditional Marine Fuels

In this report, we describe the predicted impact of large spills or releases of alternative marine fuels. The fuels covered in this report are those that have been identified as potential future fuels for the marine shipping sector by industry experts and government agencies overseeing the development of renewable and low-carbon fuels. Several of these fuels are already in use, such as liquified natural gas, renewable diesel, ethanol, methanol, and biodiesel. Other fuels are hydrogen, dimethyl ether, ammonia, and bio-intermediates, such as catalytic fast pyrolysis biooils and hydrothermal liquefaction bio-crudes. The property databases of these fuels are extensive enough to form predictive assessments. Other potential marine fuels, such as lignin ethanol, have not been extensively evaluated and are therefore not included is this study. For each fuel chemistry, we have surmised the spill profiles and environmental impacts based on existing studies and relevant properties. The technologies used to detect spills (especially those for crude oil detection) are also reviewed for their applicability with alternative fuels, and in some instances, recommendations to improve these technologies for use with a particular fuel chemistry are put forward. Finally, current containment and remediation technologies are reviewed and assessed for their efficacy at handling these alternative fuels.

04 OIL SHALES AND TAR SANDS↗

Catalytic Reduction of Esters over Zirconia-Supported Metal Catalysts

Esters are often produced as unwanted byproducts during the catalytic upgrading of ethanol to diesel fuel precursors through Guerbet coupling. Removal of esters from the product stream is important to prevent the loss of downstream catalyst activity from ester-derived carboxylic acids. In this work, we studied ester hydrogenolysis to the parent alcohols as a viable route for enhanced diesel fuel production. Specifically, we investigated the reduction of hexyl acetate in butanol over ZrO 2 -supported Ni, Co, Cu, Rh, Pd, and Pt catalysts, where Cu/ZrO 2 was the most selective catalyst for the hydrogenolysis of hexyl acetate into hexanol and ethanol. Thermodynamic analysis reveals that a 90% alcohol yield can be obtained at 200 °C, 30 bar, and a relatively high H 2 :hexyl acetate molar ratio of 480:1. Experimentally, an alcohol yield of 88% yield was obtained with a 10 wt % Cu/ZrO 2 catalyst at these conditions with a residence time of 5.4 h kg cat kmol gas –1 . Catalytic tests on the support revealed that ZrO 2 catalyzes the transesterification reaction between hexyl acetate and butanol. However, only the Cu sites can catalyze the hydrogenolysis of the esters into the final alcohols. We developed a kinetic model for our experimental results, which shows that the transesterification and hydrogenolysis reactions run at two different timescales, the former being 10 times faster than the latter. Data regression has been used to develop a model to predict the mole fraction distribution of ester hydrogenolysis products over a wide range of contact times. Cu/ZrO 2 loses half its catalytic activity after 80 h of time on stream. Modeling of deactivation data reveals that the ZrO 2 support conserves a residual activity due to external active sites, while active sites over the Cu surface deactivate at different rates. Furthermore, the catalytic conversion of esters into their parent alcohols is relevant to the production of surrogate liquid fuels since alcohols can be bimolecularly dehydrated to produce a blend of ethers with diesel fuel-like properties.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

Biofuels Induced Land Use Change Emissions: The Role of Implemented Land Use Emission Factors

Biofuels’ induced land-use change (ILUC) emissions have been widely studied over the past 15 years. Many studies have addressed uncertainties associated with these estimates. These studies have broadly examined uncertainties associated with the choice of economic models, their assumptions and parameters, and a few bio-physical variables. However, uncertainties in land-use emission factors that represent the soil and vegetation carbon contents of various land types across the world and are used to estimate carbon fluxes due to land conversions are mostly overlooked. This paper calls attention to this important omission. It highlights some important sources of uncertainty in land-use emissions factors, explores the range in these factors from established data sources, and compares the influence of their variability on ILUC emissions for several sustainable aviation fuel (SAF) pathways. The estimated land-use changes for each pathway are taken from a well-known computable general equilibrium model, GTAP-BIO. Two well-known carbon calculator models (CCLUB and AEZ-EF) that represent two different sets of emissions factors are used to convert the GTAP-BIO estimated land-use changes to ILUC emissions. The results show that the calculated ILUC emissions obtained from these carbon calculators for each examined SAF pathway are largely different, even for the same amortization time horizon. For example, the ILUC emissions values obtained from the AEZ-EF and CCLUB models for producing jet fuel from corn ethanol for a 25-year amortization period are 24.9 gCO 2 e/MJ and 15.96 gCO 2 e/MJ, respectively. This represents a 60% difference between the results of these two carbon calculators for the same set of land-use changes. The results show larger differences for other pathways as well.

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗

An analysis of alcohol compression ignition strategies on different engine platforms

Strategies that enable ignition of the low cetane alcohol fuels (methanol and ethanol) include intake heating (direct or via hot residual trapping), increased compression ratio (CR), multi-injection strategies, ignition enhancers, and active prechambers. The literature consistently shows alcohol compression ignition (CI) is more efficient than diesel at high loads irrespective of ignition strategy but shows contradictory results at low loads. To understand this, this work combines data from four different engine platforms ranging from a displaced volume of 0.4 to 2.1 L/cyl. using different alcohol CI ignition strategies. Using modeling to support experimental analysis, alcohol-specific efficiency penalties are highlighted to inform alcohol combustion system development. The alcohols’ lower energy density means more fuel must be injected near top dead center to achieve a given load, increasing the relative penalty of sensible/latent heating. Pilot injections help reduce this penalty. Intake heating incurs both a heat transfer penalty and a thermodynamic penalty due to a reduced ratio of specific heats during compression. A strategy that combines elevated CR, large pilot injections, and ignition enhancers can avoid this penalty. Alternatively, a prechamber strategy can achieve this without changing the CR, nor needing ignition enhancers in the fuel. At low loads, diesel burns in a partially premixed mode characterized by high burn rates and low heat losses, reducing alcohol-specific combustion benefits. Alcohol CI on the light-duty platform showed abnormally high heat transfer over diesel compared to other platforms, favoring a more premixed/partially premixed strategy despite a combustion efficiency tradeoff.

33 ADVANCED PROPULSION SYSTEMS↗

Life cycle greenhouse gas emissions and carbon intensity of U.S. fuel use and projection for the next 10 years-based on built capacity and expansion plans

The U.S. Inflation Reduction Act of 2022 supports biofuel production expansion through the 45Z clean fuel production tax credit, replacing previous 40A and 40B credits. This follows on the Renewable Fuel Standard from the Energy Policy Act of 2005 and its expansion in 2007. States like California, Oregon, and Washington also offer clean fuel credits. Meanwhile, federal agencies, including the U.S. Department of Energy, have advanced alternative fuel technologies through research and development funding. The surging interest in the biofuel industry has spurred the demand for biofuel supplies in the markets, although achieving profitability for advanced biofuels and low-carbon e-fuels remains challenging. This study aims to track U.S. alternative fuel production capacity expansion plans over the next 10 years and estimate impacts on greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. By tracking built capacity and industry announcements of planned expansion, this study complements other studies which use models to predict changes in energy technologies and the associated GHG implications. Modeled projections of future technologies are often criticized for over or underestimating the cost and potential role of new technologies. The study focuses on sustainable aviation fuel, renewable diesel, ethanol, biodiesel, and renewable natural gas. Using facility-level data, we conducted a bottom-up analysis linking biofuel production pathways with corresponding pathways and parameterizations in the Argonne R&D GREET model. Results indicate that biofuel capacity could reach 3.8 exajoules in 2035, potentially reducing U.S. GHG emissions by 179 million tonnes, including the full life cycle. This corresponds to a 20% reduction in transportation and 5% in industry sector emissions by 2035, or a 3.6% reduction in economy-wide emissions. Overall, this study shows that while biofuel production capacity in the U.S. is expanding, the capacities remain limited compared to fuel demand. Uncertainty regarding the durability and extension of incentives may be dampening the pace of growth. Meanwhile, demonstrating the commercial potential for alternative fuels and climbing the learning curve for new technologies could lead to an increased pace of expansion in later years. This study offers insights for bioenergy stakeholders, highlighting biofuel technologies' contribution to U.S. energy system and emissions reduction over time based on producers' plans.

Biofuel Producers↗

AN EXPERIMENTAL STUDY OF FUEL SELECTION FOR A GASOLINE MULTI-MODE

In this study of fuels of different reactivities and their performance in a low-temperature combustion (LTC) engine. The engine was a 2.2L CRDI engine code D4HB provided by industry partner Hyundai America Technical Center inc. (HATCI). The engine was instrumented with in-cylinder pressure sensors allowing for monitoring of the combustion process. First, the engine was operated with standard US pump grade gasoline, Research Octane number (RON) 91 E10, to find initial operation conditions as well as control points of stable operation for daily checks on system conditions. Tested were 8 different fuel blends, the four base blends were provided by Phillips 66 (P66) with a RON value ranging from 60 to 91, and three other variations of these fuels were formulated by splash blending alcohols, iso-butanol, and ethanol, with the RON60 fuel and the final blend, was US RON91 E10 pump gasoline. Using these 8 fuels, the low load performance was analyzed allowing a selection of one of the fuels to be made to proceed with experimentation. To study the low load performance of each fuel, the load was decreased until combustion became too unstable to continue. This was done at 1500 rpm with all of the fuels. At 1200 rpm, the same methodology was applied, though all of the fuels were not tested, only the fuels which showed promise at 1500 rpm. Meaning that the lowest targeted load was achieved without any aid to the combustion process other than advancing combustion, increasing intake air temperature (IAT) for example was not done to maintain consistency across all fuels. The same methodology was applied at 800 rpm based upon the 1200 rpm results to see the ability of the engine to idle with the given fuel. It was found that fuel with a RON of 80 showed good low load performance while allowing for high load performance to be maintained. A blend of 25% Iso-Butanol and 75% RON 60 equated to a RON of 80 and showed good low load performance and showed peak indicated thermal efficiency (ITE) numbers of 46% at 17 bar indicated mean effective pressure (IMEP) and 2200 rpm.

02 PETROLEUM↗

Sustainable Aviation Fuels from 30,000 feet – Scoping Report

A literature review, first principles analysis, and mapping of the airline-fuel infrastructure were performed to reassess the potential for various means of realizing a sustainable aviation sector. The literature review found a plethora of technical methods to make the airline industry net-zero CO 2 but limited work on the emergent barriers to sustainable aviation implementation such as land use, repurposing of fuel refining assets, and airline cost structures. First principles analyses of the energy, land, and costs of three broad net-zero strategies were performed to determine if sustainable aviation is feasible even in the most optimistic scenarios. Those methods were biomass-derived sustainable aviation fuel (SAF), fuel produced from CO 2 captured from the air and H 2 produced from water electrolysis (air-to-fuel: ATF), and offsetting fossil-derived Jet Fuel with carbon dioxide removal from the atmosphere (direct air capture and storage: DACS). Offsetting CO 2 emissions from using fossil Jet Fuel with DACS was found to consume the least energy, require the smallest quantity of land, and be the cheapest option. Replacing Jet Fuel with SAF was found to be only slightly more expensive than DACS but require substantially more land. ATF was found to be the most expensive and energy intensive option, though it did spare land relative to SAF. We found that calls to utilize waste biomass are well-founded, but wastes alone cannot cover the needs of the global airline industry. This means additional land will need to be allocated for biomass cultivation if SAF becomes the primary pathway to sustainable aviation. While differences were found in the performance of different types of biomass, those differences were small relative to differences with ATF and DACS. An analysis of the pricing structure of the airline industry suggests that some of the cost advantage of DACS may be erased by consumer sentiment which could explain why, to-date, the airline industry is focused primarily on SAF and to a lesser extent ATF. Further work is required to estimate the transportation, capital cost, and financing cost implications of greenfield and brownfield sites for SAF, DACS, and ATF. In the final report, we will analyze the potential to retrofit corn ethanol facilities to operate the ethanol-to-jet fuel process in response to decreasing gasoline demand as the electrification of road transport progresses. We will also construct a prioritization of land use to determine whether each net-zero CO 2 aviation pathway can make claim to the land required by their technology.

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗

A techno-economic assessment of carbon dioxide removal pathways via biochemical conversion of lignocellulose to biofuels and bioplastics

Biomass carbon removal and storage (BiCRS) is a promising pathway to mitigate climate change via large scale removal of atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO 2 ). We modeled several fermentation technologies, producing a variety of bioproducts from lignocellulosic feedstocks, to understand their levelized cost of CO 2 removal under multiple scenarios. Lifecycle greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions are accounted to provide cradle-to-grave estimates of carbon intensity (CI). We did not account for the avoided fossil CO 2 emissions from the use of biofuels in our CO 2 removal cost calculations, because avoided emissions do not contribute to CO 2 removal. The main products from the fermentation technologies we modeled include renewable diesel, ethanol, sustainable aviation fuel (SAF), and polyethylene (PE), with co-products including CO 2 , adipic acid, steam, and electricity. PE, depending on its end-of-life management, can serve as a form of biogenic carbon storage. PE has the potential to remove 1.2–1.5 tCO 2 per dry t-biomass, whereas biofuels have the potential to remove 0.3–0.9 tCO 2 per dry t-biomass, indicating that PE production is a more efficient method of carbon removal. We quantify costs of CO 2 removal to be $\$$60 – $\$$675 per metric tCO 2 removed across the various fermentation pathways. Under the scenarios analyzed, bioplastic production from lignocellulosic biomass is a more cost-effective route to CO 2 removal than biofuel production, with costs of CO 2 removal via bioplastics being 50–90 % lower than that of biofuels. Future research should explore the potential benefits and drawbacks of expanding bioplastic production for large-scale CO 2 removal.

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗